The other day we went over the top 20 third basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball for our 2012 fantasy baseball rankings. Today, we turn our bejeweled eyeglasses to the top 20 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball. The top twenty outfielders will need to go to a top 40 then a top 60 then a top 80. Unfortunately, outfield is pretty shallow. Guess outfielders come in waves… much like sperm whales. Oofa! For five outfielder leagues, this really blows, which is only a positive if you’re a sperm whale. Zadow! As always, these top 20 outfielders are broken up into tiers with my projections. Anyway, here’s the top 20 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball:
6. Andrew McCutchen – Went over his projections in the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball. This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Pence. I call this tier, “These players. ‘What Grey wants in every league, Alex?’” The outfield isn’t quite as deep as it should be considering there’s three of these suckers playing at any given moment on all teams and the Reds have four.
8. Jay Bruce – What we got from Bruce last year may not have been totally Boss, but a guy that can give you a 30+ homer and 8+ steal season is valuable nowadays. If Bruce manages to pull a rabbit out of his hat, he could improve in all five categories and there will be a magician somewhere wondering why Jay Bruce has his rabbit. 2012 Projections: 90/34/100/.270/10
9. Josh Hamilton – I think the market has finally figured out Hamilton. No longer is everyone expecting a MVP season every time out. People have realized he’s Mr. Glass. When healthy, Hamilton hits homers and a solid average, runs and RBIs. When he’s not healthy, you plug in someone else. In 12 team mixed leagues, it’s much easier to do that than in deep AL-Only ones so keep that in mind when drafting. (In AL-Only leagues or any leagues with less waiver wire options, I’d move Hamilton down to the next tier.) 2012 Projections: 75/27/85/.295/7
10. Nelson Cruz – Take the above and just “find” Hamilton and “replace” with Cruz. I think the market has finally figured out Cruz. No longer is everyone–Well, you can do it on your own. 2012 Projections: 70/30/85/.260/10
11. Hunter Pence – He’s a square peg in this round tier. Everyone else in this tier has crazy upside and some potential pitfalls. Pence is steady as she goes, Raconteurs. Last year he hit a few less homers, but I could see him actually hitting a few more homers this year because he won’t be playing under the tyranny of the recently-exiled Ed Wade’s Toupee. (Was actually surprised Astros fans weren’t more excited about the disposal of the Toupee, but, then again, I don’t think there are Astros fans.) 2012 Projections: 95/25/100/.280/10
12. Curtis Granderson – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Victorino. I call this tier, “How is this tier different than all other tiers? This tier I’m going to pass over.” Went over his projections in the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball.
13. Matt Holliday – I’m done with Holliday until next year or the year after when he falls into the tier of outfielders with guys like Vernon Wells. He’s still too coveted for what he used to do rather than what he’s about to do. Oh, and please don’t ask in the comments if this means I would never draft Holliday. I would take Pence, Cruz and Bruce before him and I’ve seen Holliday taken before them, so how am I drafting Holliday? I’m not taking four outfielders in the course of one pick, i.e., I’m not drafting Holliday before others so I’m not getting him. Sorry to longtime readers who had to read that, but I feel like I always get these questions around the time of rankings. 2012 Projections: 85/24/90/.305/5
15. Shane Victorino – We had a good run. Victorino and I. It’s come to an end. Howard’s banged up, Utley’s a nail clipping incident away from the 15-day DL and Rollins has more miles on him than your Chrysler LeBaron. Victorino’s runs and RBIs will be affected. His speed is affected by his age, and he’s not a big power threat. If he falls far enough I could see maybe taking him, but it’s time to bid him aloha. The goodbye version of aloha, that is. 2012 Projections: 85/15/55/.275/20
16. Michael Morse – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here into the top 40 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball. I call this tier, “I’ll happily reach for one of these guys if I have to, in the non-sexual way. Though it’s kinda sad this is the third tier of outfielders that I’m excited about. Times is tough, yo.” Went over Morse’s projections at the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball post.
17. Desmond Jennings – I already went over my Desmond Jennings 2012 fantasy. While I wrote it, a leprechaun with a broken GPS looking for a rainbow appeared out my window. 2012 Projections: 80/16/65/.275/35
18. B.J. Upton – Honestly, I might be the only fantasy baseball ‘pert who doesn’t mind Fellatio Upton. Sure, he hits for a wonky average, but so does your mom. (Actually, I don’t know how well your mom hits for average. Though she looks like she can’t leg out many infield hits on those cankles.) Upton hits for power and steals bases. I’m willing to go out on a limb that he can luck into a .260 average one of these years with his wheels and still go 20/40. At 27 years of age, this is the year I’m betting on. 2012 Projections: 80/20/85/.250/40
19. Adam Jones – He has a few strikes against him. But games haven’t started yet?! Strikes against him was a figure of speech, Random Italicized Voice. Jones’s ground ball rate isn’t great, which makes me think we’ll need to be lucky to get over 25 homers and his walk rate is near abysmal. A guy that can give 25/12/.285 is valuable though in today’s bear market, which only sounds like a grocery store in The Castro. 2012 Projections: 80/25/90/.285/12
20. Drew Stubbs – Stubbs isn’t really the same player as Fellatio Upton, so I battled with how to get him out of the same tier. I battled myself by dunking my hands in two bowls of Jell-O, then thumb-wrestling myself to a ten round draw. I ended up figuring it was fine to put Stubbs in the same tier but below him. 2012 Projections: 80/17/55/.240/40
The top 10 and top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball are in the bag, along with the top 20 catchers and your receipt for a $30 massage valued at $50. Thanks, Groupon! Today, Razzhands, we look at the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball. All this shizz can be found under the 2012 fantasy baseball rankings. Don’t believe me? Click the link. This top 20 list of 1st basemen is bursting at the seams like you at a Hometown Buffet. Speaking of gorging yourself, I’d like a top 1st baseman on my team in 2012, but it’s a little different year than last year. There’s actually only 5 top first basemen then caveats on number 6 (Te(i)x) through 9, then there’s some interesting flyers a bit later. I have a feeling 2013′s rankings are going to see major shifts with some guys that are lower on this ranking sheet moving up. Should be a fun year for first basemen and one where you can take a bit more risk than previous years. This list will get additional 1st basemen added to it in the way of sleeper posts. As with the other rankings, the first basemen are broken up into tiers with my projections included. Anyway, here’s the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball:
6. Mark Teixeira – See top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball for Mark Teixeira’s projections. This is actually a new tier. This tier goes from here until Michael Young. I call this tier, “Caterpillars. Tier name will be explained in the Young blurb. Feel free to read Young’s blurb then return here. Hey, back already?! Awesome! I missed you. Do you enjoy cuddling?”
7. Paul Konerko – He’s been wildly consistent. In 2008 when he hit only 22 homers, it looks like the anomaly. If I were to say 2012 is the year he gets old and it all falls apart, I’d just be guessing. Last year he hit hardly any doubles, more line drives and singles, but he’s also getting smarter cutting his K-rate and increasing his walk rate. The biggest hurdle Konerko is going to have this year is keeping his will to play as the team folds on Opening Day. Maybe Hawk can work in some of his positivism in the negativity. “This is the fastest a team has ever been out of contention! You can put it on the board… We gone!” 2012 Projections: 85/29/100/.290
8. Lance Berkman – Let’s see if you can pick out the number that doesn’t belong, these are his homer totals from 2009 to 2011 — 25, 14, 31. If you said 14, you’re a believer. Feel free to draft Berkman. If you said 31, you’re in my camp. We will not be drafting Berkman. If you said 27, that wasn’t a choice. Berkman didn’t necessarily have an odd year for homers per fly balls. He made solid contact, reducing his ground balls, but he’s 36 years old and missing Pujols. That’s enough for me to avoid. 2012 Projections: 80/24/95/.275/3
9. Michael Young – This tier is filled with some older shorties, huh? Go, shorty, it’s your 35th birthday; we gonna party like it’s your 35th birthday! As I kinda said in the opening paragraph, the 1st basemen in 2012 are about to go caterpillar up in here and morph into a butterfly, but with that butterfly emerging from its cocoon Don Ameche-style, it needs to shed its caterpillar skin (can you tell I did well in my college science courses?). This tier is gonna leave behind some caterpillar skin that will be released into the garden and turn into a new plant and/or Eric Hosmer. (Again, not a science major.) To explain all of this without the confusing metaphor, guys in this tier are getting old and will make way for guys in the next tier for next year. As for Young, I don’t like him because he only gives average, and, while that’s been consistently solid in his career, he still got lucky last year and he’s due to hit a lot closer to .300 than .340. Projections: 75/15/90/.310/5
10. Carlos Santana – Here comes the fun! Can you feel the excitement? It’s like that time we got together and did the crab circle dance in the pool in Cabo San Lucas and all our roommates were there except Zach and Ashley — but who needs them anyway?! This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Butler. I call this tier, “The crab circle in Cabo San Lucas.” Is that too specific a reference? You guys and three girl readers get it. See the top 20 catchers for 2012 fantasy baseball to see Carlos Santana’s projections.
11. Eric Hosmer – I’m ignoring sophomore jinxes like I ignored when my whole sophomore class saw me get depantsed and I had on dirty tightie-whities. I continue to stress that they were once all brown underwear that got bleached. Hosmer is going to be special, and even if it’s not this year, he’s going to hold trade value through the season unless his bottom really falls out, which I don’t envision happening. His commitment to stealing around ten bases will keep him from totally flopping. He will be Joey Votto-lite this year. How lite is the only question. I don’t think it’ll be that lite. BTW, you know who’s Billy Butler-lite? Kirstie Alley. 2012 Projections: 85/25/95/.280/10
12. Michael Morse – I think Morse just had his best season, but I also don’t think he’s gonna fall like, say, Ryan Ludwick of a few years ago, to mention a player that was old for a prospect, broke out then went back to obscurity. Speaking of which, when you get robbed in a parking garage and the security guard tells the police they didn’t hear anything, you tell them they’re more like obscurity! Store it away for when it’s applicable. Morse had the trappings* of a breakout but his health always got in the way. I’m excited to watch the Nats this year and Morse should be smack dab in the middle of it. *I have no idea if I used trappings right but it sounded pretty cool the way I just threw it out there, right? 2012 Projections: 80/27/90/.275/3
13. Michael Cuddyer – Gets away from Hubert H. Homerfree Dome and goes to Coors. Boom goes the dynamite! Or does it? Cuddyer just had a solid season, and terrific when compared to the team around him. Jack Wilson would’ve looked good in that Minnesota mucky muck last year. Cuddyer hits a ton of ground balls and he’s not a huge homer threat. I’d say if he repeats his 2011, it’s a win for him and his fantasy owners, especially since he has 2nd base eligibility in some leagues (17 games). Check your rules first before you draft him for 2nd, then think about how you’re checking rules for fantasy baseball. And you wonder why you have no success with the ladies. 2012 Projections: 75/22/85/.275/5
14. Mark Reynolds – His K-rate is kinda comical. He’s a terrible real baseball player. But real baseball is for real athletes. What kind of crap is that?! Give me a computer, an ergonomic chair and some Doritos, I’m playing fantasy baseball! As long as Mini Donkey continues to hit 35 homers and steal 7-10 bases, he has solid fantasy value, just don’t draft Krispie Young, Adam Dunn or any other low average guys with him. Actually, don’t draft Adam Dunn at all. 2012 Projections: 75/35/90/.230/7
15. Adam Lind – The reason why I still go back to Lind no matter how many times he kicks my metaphorical puppy is because he’s capable of 35+ homers. Also, he got a bad rap in 2010 for being a guy that comes with a poor average, but he’s not that, y’all! He’s around a .260 guy with neutral luck. That’s a’ight, and a’ight is better than just a’ight but not quite a’ight a’ight. Want a silly prediction that has no basis in science or fact? Lind’s gonna be a top three finisher in 2012 for MVP. 2012 Projections: 90/32/105/.270 (<–crazy optimistic, but whatevs)
15 1/2. Billy Butler – I gave Butler a half ranking because he only has 11 games at 1st base. In Yahoo leagues, you can place The Moob Man at 1st. I’d use two hands so one moob doesn’t feel neglected. Yes, Butler’s in the exciting tier, but I worry that Butler will only get 17 or less homers with a bad case of blimpotence. But II, The Return of But, at 26 years old I think we can trust he’ll hover closer to 20 ding dongs. Butler, “Did someone say ding dongs?!” 2012 Projections: 90/20/100/.300
16. Ryan Howard – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until the end of the list. I call this tier, “Some major question marks, but a chance for nice dividends.” Howard will move in the rankings at some point in the preseason when we know exactly when he’s gonna return. If he’s back by the end of April, he hits 25-30 homers and is worth stashing. If he’s not due back until midseason, I wouldn’t even bother drafting him and would drop him off this list completely. I don’t believe in DL’ing players for months in redraft leagues. For example, think about how many years you drafted Brandon Webb waiting for him to return from injury. Yeah, that worked out well. 2012 Projections: 70/28/100/.260 (returning on May 1st)
18. Ike Davis – Last year, Ike took so many hits on the DL; somewhere Tina Turner was smiling. Davis says his ankle will be good to go for Spring Training. I say, just keep him away from the Mets doctors. From this tier, I’d say Davis has the biggest chance to shoot up the rankings for next year. Or he could have one setback and miss another three months. 2012 Projections: 85/22/90/.280
19. Mark Trumbo – When I went over Albert Pujols’s signing, I also covered Trumbo’s question mark. As long as Abreu, Double I and Kendrys are shooting the shizz and talking about the good old times, Trumbo’s either playing 3rd or in trouble of losing playing time. 3rd base would be great, but his defense might give Scioscia the gas face. I really can’t see someone who gave Jeff Mathis 1360 plate appearances in 5 years playing Trumbo at third. That’s a huge question mark. If Trumbo can get 500 plate appearances, then I’d happily draft him. Remember a platoon player at catcher is doable for fantasy, but at 1st or even at corner you need stats. Projections: 60/25/75/.260/7 (500 PAs)
20. Paul Goldschmidt – I already went over my Paul Goldschmidt fantasy. I wrote it while rooting for Garfield from Parking Wars to boot a car. 2012 Projections: 75/27/85/.245/7
After the top 20 1st basemen, there’s a lot of names but these stand out:
Kendrys Morales – Might not be a bigger question mark on this entire list. Ryan Howard could be out for a while, but if he returns, you should get decent production. Kendrys might return and still be crizzap. Or he might return and platoon with Abreu or Trumbo or Wells. Or he might return and be valuable. You got more variables than an episode of Mythbusters. Boom! I’m bigger on basic cable than Chumlee! 2012 Projections: 65/22/75/.290
Justin Morneau – This is one question mark that I’m not drafting anywhere. This schmohawk can come to my house and make me a perfectly medium-rare steak with the most amazing compound butter and I won’t go near him because, after last year, his steak will probably give me an immediate heart attack. 2012 Projections: 60/17/75/.285
Gaby Sanchez – He (she?) can give you modest power and solid counting stats. Plus, you can pretend you have a girl on your team. You ask why he’s not ranked and I answer that he is. He’s ranked just after Morneau. Him and Morneau are a bit of a toss-up, but Morneau has an outside chance at bigger power numbers. Gaby has a better chance of actually playing a full season. 2012 Projections: 65/20/85/.265/3
Freddie Freeman – I don’t look forward to drafting Freeman. So much so, I won’t draft him. So much so much so, I didn’t even rank him. He’s not ranked. He’s just blurbed here. He’s too much James Loney for my taste. He has a slightly off year on power and you’re gonna be lucky to get 17 homers. Belch called and said burp. 2012 Projections: 60/19/75/.280/3
Yonder Alonso – I took all the prospect reports on Alonso and put through my supercomputer and out came, “Should develop into a 20+ homer hitter with a great eye. Padres TV can save time by eliminating instant replay because he runs like he’s in slow mo.” I liked Yonder a lot more when he was on the Reds with no starting job than on the Padres with a starting job. It’s just so hard to get excited about a hitter’s upside in Petco. 2012 Projections: 55/16/70/.280
Justin Smoak – I’m letting someone else take the Smoak gamble this year. Until he hits 25+ homers, I don’t want to mess with his .240-ish average. Call me crazy. You, “Crazy.” 2012 Projections: 55/18/65/.245
Carlos Pena – Looking for someone this year that can do what Adam Dunn did last year? Look no further! He signed with the Rays, but it doesn’t matter. He is what he is everywhere he plays. I will now slap myself hard across the face for saying a variation of “it is what it is.” 2012 Projections: 55/25/75/.210
Adam Dunn – Everyone seems to think Dunn is not, um, done. Correction: Everyone that did not own him last year. I guess they want a piece of the frustration that others felt last year. That’s like standing at the craps table and watching roll after roll where people lose and you’re like, “Now is the time to get in!” No, it’s not. There’s no reason why the table is going to turn for the better. The big-bellied age quickly and poorly. Don’t go near Dunn just because you lucked out not owning him last year. And, if you did own him last year and want more, then you’re like Homer grabbing the donut no matter how many times the electrical current shocks him. 2012 Projections: 55/22/80/.220 (<–actually optimistic)
Anthony Rizzo – Because I couldn’t end the post on a sour note with Adam Dunn, here’s R to the izzo. I already went over my Anthony Rizzo 2012 fantasy. I wrote it while huffing. It was also written before the trade to the Cubs, so the end about how I wanna take a chainsaw to Petco is irrelevant. I don’t think we’ll see Rizzo until June at the earliest so in redraft leagues, I’d ignore him, but in keeper leagues I’d stash him. He could hit 25 homers as soon as next year. If he breaks camp with the Cubs, then it’s on like Steve Wiebe playing Donkey Kong. 2012 Projections: 30/10/45/.250/4 (in 300 ABs)
Brandon Belt – Okay, one more! This is it though. If Belt were guaranteed everyday playing time, I’d place him between Napoli and Davis. Around 16 and a half. Belt is capable of 25/10/.280, which would have him poised to be a top 5 1st baseman next year. The problem is Bruce Bochy has a gigantic head, but a very small brain. Hopefully he realizes Belt ties the entire Giants outfit together. 2012 Projections: 70/24/80/.280/10 (in 500 ABs)
As reported ad nauseum yesterday, Albert Pujols signed with the Los Angeles Suburb of Los Angeles Angels yesterday. Or the Albertaheim Pujalos, as they should now be called. Something that wasn’t reported, with Pujols going from a Cardinal to an Angel, Dan Brown now has a new book idea. After every home run, Pujols seemed to be pointing at God, but he was obviously pointing at the Angels. And since it is the Christmas season, let us not forget: When a Pujols gets a contract, an Angel gets his rings. Someone reported how Pujols stands to make $68,493 per day. I have an idea: Occupy Pujols! They’ll like that one in West Hollywood. Okay, enough of the jibber-jabbering.
Pujols’s value doesn’t change with the new league, park or team. He’ll get around 35 homers, 100+ runs and RBIs and .300. In 2020, when players are using jet packs and astronaut ice cream is finally sold at stadiums, then Pujols might not be the same player, but we’ll cross that hovercraft when we come to it. The bigger issue with Pujols, is where is everyone else playing?
The Angels have enough non-abled bodies to make a kick-ass Rock N Jock softball team. They should sign Meatloaf! First up, Kendrys Morales and his non-bionic leg. Since Kendrys has been pulling a Kotchman for the last two years, there’s a chance he doesn’t even make it out of the gate, but I think we have to assume he does play in April and slots in as the DH. Maybe Pujols gives the DH slot a little how’s your father every couple of weeks, but he’s playing the field. Next up, Mark Trumbo and his promising future is either being moved to third base or platooning with Kendrys. For fantasy, a move to third would be great, terrific, synonym. But this is the Sciosciapath managing. Ugh, I already see it getting ugly from a fantasy perspective. I could see Scioscia playing Maicer Izturis at 3rd before Trumbo. This is not good. If Trumbo loses 150 at-bats without gaining 3rd base eligibility, his value goes out the metaphorical window. Then you have an even worse shituation in the outfield. Bourjos has to play center. Glove is too valuable. Angels have already committed to him. Turning back now on him would be a huge mistake/surprise/Mad Libs in something. Plus, Bourjos is just the kind of player Scioscia loves. So there’s two spots left for Vernon Wells, Bobby Abreu and Torii Hunter. That’s awesome if you’re putting together a 2004 All-Star Game team. BUT WHAT ABOUT MIKE TROUT?! I know, Al Caps. I hate teams and their casual lack of regard for rookies. I’m afraid to report to you, Mike Trout’s not seeing time until 2013. My Mike Trout 2012 fantasy is missing one caveat — what happens if they sign Albert Effin’ Pujols? My guess is their outfield is gonna be Hunter, Bourjos and Wells with Abreu platooning in the outfield and at DH.
To recap for fantasy, Pujols is fine, Bourjos is fine, Trumbo is fine if he can play 3rd which seems unlikely, Kendrys is fine if he’s healthy, Abreu is not fine, Mike Trout is not fine. Ideally, the lineup will look like this: 1. CF Bourjos 2. 2B Kendrick 3. 1B Pujols 4. RF Hunter 5. 3B Trumbo 6. DH Morales 7. LF Wells 8. C Iannetta 9. SS Aybar. That’s what you’re hoping for if you have Trumbo in a keeper, at least. Anyway, here’s some more Winter Meeting moves and what they mean for 2012 fantasy baseball:
Lance Berkman – More fall out from Pujols’s signing has Berkman moving to first base. Might keep his legs a little fresher, but the loss of Pujols from the lineup sorta leaves a foul odor on the whole team no matter how fresh someone’s legs are. Mike Matheny’s mother, “You’re gonna manage a World Series team?! That’s so amazing! Wait until I tell your Uncle Morty!” Uncle Morty Matheny, “Pujols is gone! He lost his whole team, Marilyn!” That’s the Matheny’s over the holidays. Allen Craig stands a shot of inheriting a starting job, but he has to get healthy first. Right now, he’s out 4-6 months from knee surgery. That leaves…um…uh…Skip Schumaker? Okay, team’s a slight mess, but everyone loves an underdog, except Dr. Simon Bar Sinister.
Alex Gonzalez – Signed on with the Brewers. But how about Pujols signing with the Angels?! All right, enough of that. You know who has a sad emoticon for the Alex Gonzalez signing? Yuniesky Betancourt. “But I could’ve done the same as Gonzalez with two less homers!” That’s Yuniesky as he watches the Brewers throw his bags out on the curb. Gonzalez is not someone you intend to ever have on your fantasy team, except once a year when he’s hot and hits a few homers in a week.
Ian Stewart – Mini Mini Donkey rises from the ashes! Brays to Theo Epstein! Maybe a change a scenery can fix what ails Stewart, though is there any record of a change of scenery ever fixing anything? Isn’t that the oldest cliche about how you can’t run from your problems? I mean, I may not be smart enough to run a major league club, but I am smart enough to pay attention to what a freakin’ fortune cookie tells me.
Nolan Arenado – Stewart leaving opens the door in Colorado for a possible Nolan Arenado infusion. He will get a post all to himself next week, unless the Rockies sign someone else. You can hardly wait! No, you!
Tyler Colvin – Went to the Rockies in exchange for Stewart. This trade is like when you order something gross and your friend has something unappetizing and you switch plates. Hey, people have different tastes! Though usually your friend’s entree is nasty too. During last year’s preseason, Matthew Berry said Colvin would hit 40 homers. Maybe Berry’s a time traveler and got his years confused and now that Colvin is in Coors he’ll hit 40 homers. Or maybe he’ll platoon as a 4th outfielder, hit 15 homers and bat .230. You just don’t know until they play the games. Though if Berry’s a time traveler, it would help explain why he’s still recycling jokes from the early 90′s.
Went over the catchers, 1st basemen, 2nd basemen and shortstops and top 20 3rd basemen for 2011. Guess what’s next! No, not pitchers. Read the title, man. In 2010, there were only 5 outfielders that hit 30 homers, this year there were 9. It isn’t exactly like a bleached Sammy Sosa is sticking players with needles, but at least the rich got a little richer — yay, capitalism! Steals were still in abundance, and that doesn’t seem like it’s going anywhere any time soon. There were 14 outfielders who stole 30 bases with Michael Bourn still eating the baby out of the king cake. Since outfield is a deep position, I’m going to turn this one to 40. Anyway, here’s the top 20 outfielders for 2011 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:
1. Matt Kemp – In the preseason, I ranked him 12th overall for all players. Find another ‘pert who ranked him that high last year. You’re wasting your time, you won’t find them. I ranked him as the 2nd outfielder overall. Just off Ryan Braun. He was drafted on average 26th overall and some ‘perts had him in the 40′s. He wasn’t an obvious pick. 2010 was not a good year, but he dropped his ball and anchor — or is it whips and chains? — and asked you to say his name. In the preseason, I said, “A total off year in 2010. That’s clear. He still hit 28 home runs and stole 19 bases. Sure, he hit .249, but he’s a career .285 hitter and his BABIP shows he was horribly unlucky last year. Yes, his Ks went up, but what happens when someone is unlucky? They press and start swinging at more pitches outside the strike zone. At 26 years old for the majority of 2011, now is not the time to give up on Kemp.” You can’t make that shizz up. Okay, you can, but it would be pretty easy to double-check it. Preseason Rank #2, 2011 Projections: 100/30/105/.285/22, Final Numbers: 115/39/126/.324/40
2. Jacoby Ellsbury – And as right as I was on Kemp, I didn’t see any of this Ellsbury season coming. About a month into the season I even compared Ellsbury to Gardner. While Gardner didn’t have a bad season, Ellsbury came out of nowhere with power that made him way more valuable. But the whole “came out of nowhere” thing makes me think we’re looking at a career year for Ellsbury. Preseason Rank #21, 2011 Projections: 90/7/70/.290/45, Final Numbers: 119/32/105/.321/39
3. Ryan Braun – In honor of The Hebrew Hammer, I wrote this about three weeks ago on Yom Kippur so I’ll make this fast. Zing! BTW, what’s the only thing you’re allowed to eat during Yom Kippur? Atone-mints. Zadow! The fact that Braun wasn’t the number one outfielder with the year he had is more an (old) testament to the guys above him. Preseason Rank #1, 2011 Projections: 105/32/120/.295/15, Final Numbers: 109/33/111/.332/33
4. Curtis Granderson – It sure was fun while it was going on, but now that Grandy’s 2011 is over it’s time to get real, I mean, was he for real? God, no. Will depend on where he gets drafted next year, but off the top of my head I’ll say he will be overrated next year. Preseason Rank #27, 2011 Projections: 70/25/80/.260/15, Final Numbers: 136/41/119/.262/25
6. Justin Upton – There’s guys that will repeat 2011 for a few years if they can avoid injury like Braun and there’s guys like Grandy and Melky. Upton’s not a Melky or Grandy. He’s a Braun. Though Upton’s a lot more the Upton we saw this year than Braun was the Braun that we saw this year. And that sentence wasn’t half as confusing in my head. Preseason Rank #7, 2011 Projections: 85/26/95/.270/20, Final Numbers: 105/31/88/.289/21
7. Michael Bourn – There’s a few Razzball concepts that just work perfectly, if I can be so immodest. SAGNOF is one. It becomes apparent when you see ESPN rank someone like Bourn 7th overall. Imagine on April 15th you were to trade Bourn straight up for Justin Upton then grab someone off waivers like Coco Crisp. Your league would’ve had a conniption. People would’ve immediately started sending notarized letters to your commissioner, using synonyms for unfair that they found in the thesaurus. Preseason Rank #40 1/2, 2011 Projections: 80/3/40/.265/45, Final Numbers: 94/2/50/.294/61
8. Melky Cabrera – First player to come out of nowhere, but I don’t think he was the 8th ranked outfielder. (I know it seems like I recap the players according to the ESPN Player Rater then disagree with it every step of the way, but c’est la vie, as Francouer would say.) Melky’s stats made him a great third outfielder, solid across the board production. As for where this season from Melky came from, he’s being seriously aided by plate appearances. 706 PA’s last year for 18 homers and 20 steals? If his PA’s fall into the 550 range as they had most years prior to 2011, his stats are gonna look like Mike Aviles. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 102/18/87/.305/20
9. Alex Gordon – I recapped Alex Gordon’s season already. I wrote that while stuffing a duck’s gullet for some foie gras. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 101/23/87/.303/17
10. Carlos Gonzalez – I knew CarGo wasn’t repeating his 2010, gave you preseason projections that were almost perfect and told you he was overrated. Yet, I feel like he didn’t disappoint as much as he could have. How dare you overperform your underperformance! Preseason Rank #5, 2011 Projections: 90/24/95/.285/20, Final Numbers: 92/26/92/.295/20
11. Hunter Pence – Here’s a guy that is cast in the Braun/Upton mold. You can set your watch to a decent year from Pence. Give or take some power, some speed, some average… Well, his stats are always there…thereabouts. Preseason Rank #10, 2011 Projections: 90/25/90/.290/15, Final Numbers: 84/22/97/.314/8
13. Jeff Francoeur – Imagine if the peasant Royals would’ve actually had some pitching in 2011. They would’ve easily made the postseason only to be bounced by the Rangers. The Royals had more runs scored than the Phillies, Brewers and Rays. As for fantasy, guys that surprise by overproducing are terrific. But — and unless you’re an alien, there’s always a but — how many fantasy owners actually got these seasons in their entirety? In deep leagues? Sure. You draft a guy like Frenchy and pray, then thank your deity of choice when he pans out. But in shallow leagues, you look at a guy like Frenchy and maybe pick him up after he does some hitting, then maybe drop him when he stops for a few weeks then maybe you grab him again, but you don’t have these players for the whole season. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 77/20/87/.285/22
15. Josh Hamilton – Ellsbury threw me for a loop, Grandy exceeded my expectations by a shizzton and Melky did what no one thought he could with a bunch of plate appearances, but Hamilton once again did exactly what I thought he would. Good while healthy with “while healthy” having its own solar system. Preseason Rank #6, 2011 Projections: 85/27/100/.305/7, Final Numbers: 80/25/94/.298/8
16. B.J. Upton – People seem to hate B.J. I think it’s the low average bias that permeates fantasy. It’s odd that there’s such a bias when average is the hardest thing to predict. Hate on low power or low speed, but low average? It’s a horn bet. Preseason Rank #19, 2011 Projections: 95/17/75/.250/40, Final Numbers: 82/23/81/.243/36
18. Andrew McCutchen – Last year we found out that The Dread Pirate wasn’t quite ready to take the next step like I thought he would. He didn’t come up that short, but short enough as they say at dwarf bowling. I really try to focus on making these blurbs about what the players did last year rather than looking ahead, but that’s easier said than done. The Dread Pirate is gonna be my 2012 Matt Kemp. There’s no one more exciting to me for next year that had a slightly down year. Preseason Rank #2, 2011 Projections: 100/18/60/.290/38, Final Numbers: 87/23/89/.259/23
19. Coco Crisp – At 31 years old, he had his best season. Coco Crisp must’ve been eating his Lucky Charms. All of these steals came from a Billy Beane-GM’d team. I guess there’s market efficiencies with steals now. You’re probably not asking yourself what I thought of Moneyball, but I’ll tell you anyway. SPOILER ALERT (but the movie has been out for over a month, you really have that much to do?) I was kinda disappointed. To go all EW on you, I’d give it a B, but I was hoping for an A. Damn you, expectations. I know Michael Lewis glossed over the fact Zito, Mulder, Hudson and the steroid-fueled Chavez and Tejada were actually a big part of the A’s success so I figured the movie would do the same. It did. They want a fairy tale about how some unknowns carried the team to glory. Yay, Scott Hatteberg is undervalued and he uses a bat carved from a tree that lightning struck! Not really, but whatever. I was more disappointed because I was bored during stretches and I didn’t like Jonah Hill at all. Hey, let’s get the Jew to find value where others are missing it! Finally, I wanted some unintentional comedy with Royce Clayton playing Tejada. “Hey, Miggy, do you have diabetes?” Cut to: Tejada holding a syringe. Tejada, “Yes. Blood sugar low.” Though that song the daughter sings is hella (do the kids still say this?) catchy. Should’ve changed the lyrics though: I’m just a GM stuck in Oakland… I’m kind of sick of being so broke and having my team get to the playoffs only to choke. Slow it down, make it stop… Miguel Tejada’s arms look like their gonna pop… BTW, if you wanna read movie reviews, my friend has a movie review blog. Preseason Rank #62, 2011 Projections: 50/6/35/.260/22, Final Numbers: 69/8/54/.264/49
After drudging through an Andy Dufresne-type tunnel for the top 20 catchers for 2011, I find myself with a group that actually really hurt or helped your team depending on how you drafted. If you went wrong with your 1st baseman, it could kill your season. Hey, Justin Morneau, no hard feelings from me. We are totally fine. Please enjoy these cyanide pills I made special for you. If you went right, you might’ve won your league. To recap, this final ranking is from ESPN Player Rater with my comments. The Player Rater allows me to be impartial while looking at how I ranked them in the preseason. Anyway, here’s the top 20 1st basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball and how they compared to where I originally ranked them:
1. Miguel Cabrera – Member when people were moving away from Swiggy Cabrera in the preseason and I said stop paying attention to preseason nonsense? You need to turn down the treble and remove the noise. I’m not sure if people run with these nonsense stories to sell pageviews or they really believe the tripe their slinging. Either way, it made no difference. Miguel’s breathalyzer never dips below .320, but his power was a bit down. But II, The Return of But, he still gave you all that and a bag of breath mints for the long ride home. Preseason Rank #2, 2011 Projections: 110/37/120/.320/5, Final Numbers: 111/30/105/.344/2
2. Adrian Gonzalez – Sure, I ranked him 5th for all 1st basemen in the preseason, but he was also ranked 10th overall with five first basemen in my preseason top 10. People said I was crazy to stack my top 10 with 1st basemen and power hitters. People said you can get 1st basemen later. Grab Youkilis, people said. Or Aubrey Huff. Or Morneau. Oh, wait, I was one of those people that said to grab Morneau. Oh, well. They ain’t all gems. Hopefully that’s my last comment about Morneau for at least three blurbs. Okay, one more Morneau comment. In the preseason, I said, “Morneau’s more valuable than Youuuuuk if he can stay healthy, but put Morneau staying healthy in one hand and a fortune cookie that says, “Morneau never stays healthy” in the other hand and what do you have? Exactly!” And that’s me foreseeing crap and not even getting out of the way when Morneau started flinging it! Preseason Rank #5, 2011 Projections: 100/37/110/.280, Final Numbers: 108/27/117/.338/1
3. Albert Pujols – I’m beginning to think that he could miss five of six months and still get 100/35/100/.300. On a side note, he should open a bar in West Hollywood named Pujols. It would give The Manhole a run for its money. Preseason Rank #1, 2011 Projections: 105/37/115/.315/10, Final Numbers: 105/37/99/.299/9
4. Joey Votto – Another reason to take a first baseman very early in a draft. How many of them flopped from my first 20 overall picks? None. There were shortstops that flopped. Outfielders that flopped. No 1st basemen. Sure, Ryan Howard didn’t hit for a great average, but he still got 110+ RBIs and 30+ homers. Preseason Rank #3, 2011 Projections: 95/32/110/.310/10, Final Numbers: 101/29/103/.309/8
5. Prince Fielder – Just another huge year on an odd-numbered year. Making us saberhagenmetricians look smart. Preseason Rank #4, 2011 Projections: 100/38/115/.280, Final Numbers: 95/38/115/.299/1
6. Michael Young – Another guy that had a ton of noise around him in the preseason. “Ooh, Grey, your mustache is full and beautiful but don’t you think Young will be hurt by all of this trade talk.” That’s you. Me, “Stop listening to all this superfluous stuff.” Only I didn’t say stuff. I said shizz. Preseason Rank #8 for 3rd basemen, 2011 Projections: 85/17/80/.280/5, Final Numbers: 88/11/106/.338/6
7. Lance Berkman – Said in the preseason that maybe Lance Berkman can give you a 2010 Konerko-type year (a big bounce back for a vet), but I really didn’t believe Berkman could do it. Then for almost two months I continued to tell you he’d stop doing it or get injured while he was actually doing it. Yeah, Berkman and I had our differences this year. I don’t believe in Berkman for next year either, if you were wondering how obstinate I can be. Preseason Rank #17, 2011 Projections: 65/20/75/.270/5, Final Numbers: 90/31/94/.301/2
8. Paul Konerko – For Konerko, I’m sick of predicting the end when the end just keeps running into the here and now. That is not a line from Air Supply, but could be. Preseason Rank #15, 2011 Projections: 70/24/85/.265, Final Numbers: 69/31/105/.300/1
9. Michael Morse – First totally out of nowhere name, which means if you decided to punt 1st base early in your draft, you had to get Morse or you were screwed. BTW, his photo makes him look like the biggest doofus. And, really, I don’t use the word doofus too much, except when it’s totally applicable like right now. Looks like he should be saying, “Which way did he go, George; which way did he go?” Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 73/31/95/.303/2
10. Mark Teixeira – The average has really dipped recently (.256 in 2009), which I no longer think is an aberration, but three times in a row is a better pattern. The rule of three yadda3. As long as he’s on the Yanks and hitting in The House They Built In The Parking Lot Next To The House That Ruth Built, it’s gonna be hard to fault all the other stats. Preseason Rank #6, 2011 Projections: 105/35/115/.280, Final Numbers: 90/39/111/.248/4
12. Ryan Howard – I don’t buy that he was actually this low in value. Again, this is somewhere the ESPN Player Rater and I don’t see eye to eye. They overrate average and steals. As for everyone who agrees that Ryan Howard wasn’t good this year and I’m crazy, I like to point you to a picture of my long-lost son. Preseason Rank #7, 2011 Projections: 85/38/100/.265, Final Numbers: 81/33/116/.253/1
13. Eric Hosmer – Not bad for two-thirds of a season. Not to scream fire in the theater of Razzball, but he kinda looks like the 2nd coming of Votto. No, I don’t use those words lightly. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 66/19/78/.293/11
14. Howie Kendrick – Kendrick is such a cusp player. I’ll explain. If he gets 5 less homers or steals, he loses so much of his value. It tends to be the case with guys who get a lot of value from average. See Michael Young as another example. Preseason Rank #14 for 2nd basemen, 2011 Projections: 65/12/85/.305/15, Final Numbers: 86/18/63/.285/14
15. Billy Butler – His season was decent, about what I’d expect (as you see from my preseason projections), but I’m not exactly altering my copy of The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo to a picture book with Butler titled, The Man with the Luscious Cans, because his cans were only saved by a 2nd half that was big like his badonkadonk. Preseason Rank #13, 2011 Projections: 80/20/90/.310, Final Numbers: 74/19/95/.291/2
16. Michael Cuddyer – His real value came when he gained 2nd base eligibility. Also, I do these top 20 listings in the order you read them, so I’ve only done the catchers and 1st basemen thus far. I tell you this because I was just thinking that I bet Cuddyer is the only Twins hitter or pitcher to rank anywhere in these end of the season lists. What a shizzshow in Minny. At the end of the year, they should have a Worst Series, where the two worst teams square off in a best of seven. Like you wouldn’t watch the Astros take on the Twins. Preseason Rank #51 for outfielders, 2011 Projections: 85/20/80/.275/5, Final Numbers: 70/20/70/.284/11
17. Mark Trumbo – It’s a little weird how much I ignore average. I looked at Trumbo and Hosmer’s season and really had no idea how Trumbo was below him in ranking. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 65/29/87/.254/9
18. Freddie Freeman – Having a hard time figuring out how his season was worse than Mr. Grapefruit, Billy Butler. Feel free to share if you figure it out. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 67/21/76/.282/4
19. Carlos Lee – The one nice thing I can say about Carlos Lee is you didn’t expect anything and he didn’t disappoint. Preseason Rank #18, 2011 Projections: 65/24/75/.260/3, Final Numbers: 66/18/94/.275/4
20. Mark Reynolds – After Bautista, Mini Donkey caused probably the biggest uproar in the preseason due to my ranking. I ranked him 6th overall for 3rd basemen and he finished the year 8th overall. Out of all the preseason projections for 3rd basemen (which will be up in a few days), Reynolds ended up coming in closest to where I thought he would. Terrible average, good power and some light speed. So far I’ve been more right about Reynolds than any other player through the course of his career. It’s like I’m wearing Birkenstocks, loose-fitting sweats, doing Downward Facing Donkey pose and looking right through Reynolds’ third chakra. Or something. Preseason Rank #6 for 3rd basemen, 2011 Projections: 80/35/95/.235/12, Final Numbers: 84/37/86/.221/6
