Fantasy Baseball Advice

This is the conundrum of fantasy baseball that leads us to the battle for the final rotation spot.  These guys either have one of two options: drive around on a bus with the Savannah Sand Gnats, or float for awhile (swimming is an entirely different sport). These guys aren’t necessarily the sexiest group of fantasy options, but if your league is deep or shallow, streaming is streaming.  I do it a lot in limitless inning leagues.  It’s not cheating — it’s taking advantage of other owners who don’t do it.  Picking your “spot” starts is always hit or miss, best way to tell if you should stream is to read the betting line — I can’t make this stuff up.  People who stand to win/lose money know what is going on here.  So here we go:  the 5th starter battles for 2010 fantasy baseball at the midpoint of Spring Training:

Braves

Kenshin Kawakami – Pitched decent last year.  Under 4.00 ERA from the 5th spot is gold.  SP/RP eligibility is platinum.  I’m for this guy — he keeps the ball on the ground.

Kris Medlen – Maybe youth can be served in the A T L.  Minors number show he has some potential. To me, he looks like a midseason trade guy for offense.

Phillies

Kyle Kendrick – I bought some of his juice 2 years ago. I’ve seen him twice this spring already and he looked pretty decent.  Plays in a HR friendly environment — not good.

Jose Contreras – Grizzled old Cuban not named Livan. Gives them the “I have been there before” guy to have in a pinch.  Moyer is lurking around somewhere too.

Reds

Aroldis Chapman – Now we are getting to “ooh” guys.  We all know about him — he is climbing up the ADP boards.  I think he gets 5-6 starts in minors.  Awesome potential; future number 2.

Matt Maloney – The designated place holder at the onset of the season.  Has potential.  Do not sleep on him — he may be a better contributor after they trade of Bronson/Harang.

Mike Leake – Yeah, he is still in contention in my eyes.  Awesome polish.  Well beyond his years on the mound.  Ponder this for next year:  Cueto, Chapman, Bailey Volquez and Leake.  WOW.  Pretty decent, I’d say.

Brewers

Dave Bush – It’s feast or famine:  head for the mountains and choose anyone but “bush.”  Having a decent enough spring to make you go…. maybe.

Manny Parra – Potent offense may help both of these guys.  Good K numbers, bad everything else is not a fair trade off for me. Mostly NL-Only help here, but roll the dice when it gets warmer.

Cardinals

Jaime Garcia – Rook is ready. Saw him pitch live and he has the goods that you’re looking for.  The “Lou” is definitely going lefty with the 5.  Minor league numbers are good enough to buy for a dollar.

Rich Hill – I told you it’s either Mickelson or Gomez.  Duncan’s pet project this year.  Had the goods to make everyone believe 3 years ago.  Yeah… you know who you are.

Dodgers

Eric Stults – Loved him as Rocky Dennis — not so much for the Dodgers.  Thirty-year-old may be a late bloomer. Worrisome high walk rate. Pitching well in Spring Training.

James McDonald – E I E I O, minor league success at every level.  Dodgers SP is very overrated. They may need his potential at the back end of the rotation.

Yankees

Phil Hughes – Joba has fallen into the pen, IMO.  Hughes has only himself to blame if he goes to join him. Awesome potential three years ago; he was a top 5 prospect. Still only 23.  SP/RP eligibility.

Alfredo Aceves – Gaudin is helping his cause. Destined for long relief.  ‘Fredo could be a guy who sneaks in. Had a year talking to the G.O.A.T in the pen.

A’s

Gio Gonzalez – Awesome punch out numbers.  Favorite of mine for sneaky late round pick.  His peripherals make me sad.

Vin Mazzaro – A fellow “Dirty Jerzian.”  Is the opposite of Gio:  pitches to contact.  For my money, he is the extremely poor man’s version of Slowey.  Last seen with JWOWW and Snooki at Jenks.

Twins

Francisco Liriano – I’m truly tired of talking about this guy. Now they want him to be a closer… Minny is throwing in the towel already.  Not a great idea. That Pierzynski trade right now looks good for this year.

Royals

Kyle Farnsworth – Yeah him.  I got nothing.  Horrible as a reliever.  Hillman drinking the sauce for an early unemployment check.

Kyle Davies – Still have nothing.  For giggles, look up his Spring numbers. I haven’t seen that fat of a number since 7 ate 9.

Robinson Tejada – Time to take the training wheels off.  Previously admired by me.  Great K potential. Looked great in final 6 starts last year.  RP/SP eligible a plus.

Rangers

Matt Harrison – Arlington bleachers gobble up fly balls in summer — unfun for pitchers. My money says Feliz pitches out of the pen to start the year.  Decent Spring so far.

Derek Holland – Great potential. Needs to develop a third pitch.  There really is no loser here:  both will get starts as Harden and McCarthy are “fra-gee-lay” and neither are Italian.

Orioles

Davis Hernandez -  Great K numbers in the minors.  Did decent enough last year to be considered here.  Not the prospect that his competition is.

Chris Tillman -  Another sleeper guy for non-dynasty leagues that I like. Is part of the handful of Baltimore top pitching specs.  Don’t sleep on him.

The first season of Fantasy Razzball – a fantasy baseball game where you try to manage the worst team possible – has been quite the trip. Never have players such as Brian Bixler (backup Pittsburgh SS – 41 AB, 0 HR, 0 RBI, .195 AVG) and Kyle Kendrick (he of the 1.81 WHIP) been so celebrated. Never has unforeseen success like Cliff Lee and Chad Gaudin been so derided.

At about the 4 week point, our Razzball leader is baseball card blogger Cards in the Attic with 88 of a potential 120 points (standings here and at bottom, click thumbnail on right for rosters). The Aardvark Trading Company hasn’t been playing scared – he’s leading the league in At-Bats (one of 3 above the 752 pro-rated minimum) and 4th in innings pitched. It’s just that his team is playing like a whole bunch of Billy “Fuck Face” Ripkens. Led by staff aces Matt Morris (3 Losses, 9.15 ERA, 1.98 WHIP) and Matt Chico (4 Losses, 6.04 ERA, 1.55WHIP), the AardvarkTradingCo.Com is setting the pace (or is it trailing the pack?) with 50 out of a possible 60 pitching points.

Yours truly is in 2nd place as my team has cooled off (warmed up?) after a torrid (horrid?) start. Damn you John Denks and Pat Maholm! Rotoprofessor is in 3rd place and our teams are performing quite similarly. We’ve done a bit better in offense with 42.5 and 44 points, respectively, managing some rather low HR/RBI (8/63 and 7/71) and awful (awesome?) batting averages (.237 and .235). Hitting MVP’s include Mike Lamb (1B/3B, .182, 0 HR), Brian Bocock (SS, .172, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 22 Ks), Travis Buck (OF, .154, 0 HR, 6 RBI, 20 Ks), and Cody Ross (OF, .146, 41 AB, 1 R, 0 HR, 2 RBI).

Underdog entry Josh the Non-Blogger has been the overachiever (underachiever?) managing 4th place with a well-balanced squad. Greener On The Other Side and Sweet Lou’s Defunct Baseball Lab have struggled out of the gate with ABs – falling 100+ below the necessary pace (pro-rated 5200 team AB) and seeing their HR nearly double after the adjustments were made. Fantasy Baseball Generals has struggled with a pitching staff that doesn’t realize it is supposed to suck – don’t take my word for it, here is their commentary on it.

Should be interesting to see how the season progresses. It’s a lot tougher to maintain a lead when your best players are the most likely to be benched, demoted or released (see Matt Morris).

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