Fantasy Baseball Advice

It feels like yesterday that the baseball regular season started.  We frolicked, hand in hand, through the season.  You stopped to pick a flower and I said, “That dandelion looks like a French impressionist painting that you can see up close.”  Then we giggled and blew the parachute off its stalk.  Today, the parachute lands and I’m sad.  The regular season is done.  As an action movie sidekick once said right before he was about to be killed, “NOOOO!!!”  There’s a cure for the post-baseball season blues — recapping the preseason top twenty lists and being hand fed Doritos. First up, Cool Ranch and our Preseason Top 20 Catchers for 2009. It’s important to look back before we look ahead to 2010.  Tell ‘em, B-Real, “How do you know where you’re going if you don’t know where you’ve been? Understand where I’m coming from?”  The top 20 lists are ranked according to ESPN Player Rater.  It may not be wholly accurate, but it’s wholly unbiased.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 catchers for 2009 fantasy baseball and how they compared to where I originally ranked them:

1. Joe Mauer – I was reading from The Book of Right-On by Joanna Newsom (<–reference for our two girl readers.  Hey, ladies!) about all of Mauer’s numbers, except the homers.  For his power, I was dead wrong.  If I could have E.G. Marshall come to my defense, he’d say no one predicted more than 15 homers for Mauer.  I was still wrong.  Dead.  Flippin’.  Wrong.  Preseason Rank #3, 2009 Projections:  95/12/80/.320/3, Final Numbers:  94/28/96/.365/4

2. Pablo Sandoval – He wasn’t ranked in ESPN’s Player Rater at catcher because of eligibility requirements, but I ranked him as a catcher in the preseason, so the Kung Fu Panda gets a bye.  In the preseason, I said, “I have his 2009 projections as 60/14/65/.300.  I think he can get to 17+ home runs without losing anything on the average side.  He’s not as appealing to me as a 3rd baseman or a swimsuit model.”  I was half right, he would’ve made a decent 3rd baseman too.  I’ll miss Sandoval in the catchers slot next year.  Preseason Rank #13, 2009 Projections:  60/14/65/.300, Final Numbers:  79/25/90/.330/5

3. Victor Martinez – I know you’ve abused your body with booze and babes for the last six months, but if you can remember back to the preseason, Martinez was risky coming into 2009 after a fakakta 2008.  He put those fears behind him and, with a little help from a trade to Sam Horn Nation, had a productive 2009.  Preseason Rank #4, 2009 Projections:  65/18/95/.300, Final Numbers:  88/23/108/.303/1

4. Brian McCann -  He’ll probably be my number one catcher again next year.  How’s that for being obstinate?  How’s that for knowing what obstinate means?  Can I get a Roget’s up in this mug?  Preseason Rank #1, 2009 Projections:  75/25/95/.295, Final Numbers: 63/21/94/.281/4

5. Kurt Suzuki – At number five, we enter a group of catchers that were probably passed around in your league like blow at an Eric Dane/Rebecca Gayheart clam bake.  I think the fact that Suzuki is ranked this high proves the point better than I could ever about not paying for catchers.  Also, most of these guys were unranked, because, frankly, they weren’t even drafted.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  74/15/88/.274/8

6. Jorge Posada – I didn’t think he had another productive season in him.  Obviously, The Jet Stream thought different.  If only Bobby Meacham had a chance to play in that wind tunnel, he could’ve broke double digits for his career.  Preseason Rank #12, 2009 Projections:  55/12/65/.270, Final Numbers:  55/22/81/.285/1

7. Miguel Montero – Probably the best waiver wire claim for any catcher this year.  In my mind, Montero was more valuable than Suzuki even though he ranks above him.  If you agree, then we may share a mind.  Weird!  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  61/16/59/.294/1

8. A.J. Pierzynski – Jesus Colome, is Pierzynski really this high on the catchers list?  What a terrible year for catchers.  I’d prefer a bunch of names below A.J. — Napoli, Olivo, Inge and even a Flying Molina Brother.  Can we just allow steroids for catchers?  C’mon, it wouldn’t be that bad.  Put the squatters on equal footing with the rest of the league.  Pierzynski is also the number one reason why you don’t draft catchers until the end of your draft.  They’re all so similar you could have easily had any number of guys below in the final rounds of your draft or off waivers and you would’ve done just fine.  Preseason Rank #20, 2009 Projections:  Yuck/Blah/I Feel Sick/.280, Final Numbers:  57/13/49/.300/1

9. Mike Napoli – With the amount of questions I fielded this year about dropping Napoli, you would think he wouldn’t have even made the top 20, let alone the top 10.  He’s the number one example why you should Ron Popeil your catcher and, “Set it and Forget It.”  Preseason Rank #9, 2009 Projections:  55/23/65/.245/7, Final Numbers:  60/20/56/.272/3

10. Bengie Molina – I would’ve preferred this Flying Molina Brother a lot more than the one below.  Actually, I wouldn’t have owned the Yadier version.  Preseason Rank #10, 2009 Projections:  50/15/70/.275, Final Numbers:  52/20/80/.265

11. Yadier Molina – Here’s a good example of the poor catcher numbers this year.  I ranked Yadier 19th overall with numbers that aren’t that far off from where he ended up, but he ranks 11th here with terrible RBIs and Runs.  Preseason Rank #19, 2009 Projections:  35/7/50/.270, Final Numbers:  45/6/54/.293/9

12. Brandon Inge – In the first half of the season, Inge was on a binge.  In the 2nd half, Inge was on the fringe.   Sandoval knocks on my office window, “Did someone say open fridge?”  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  71/27/84/.230/2

13. Miguel Olivo – Two good months gets you 13th on the top 20 catcher rankings.  In an interesting aside to me and maybe three other readers, Olivo and John Buck combined for 31 homers and 101 RBIs.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  51/23/65/.249/5

14. Russell Martin – Kinda shows you how awful Martin’s season was with the company he’s keeping on this list.  Here’s a juicy nugget I said back in February, “I don’t want to have anything to do with a catcher who gives you value because of some schmohawkian steals.  You’d be surprised at how fast a 13/18 catcher can become a 12/7 catcher. You really want to draft Placido Polanco in the fourth round as your catcher?”  And that’s me quoting me!  Preseason Rank #5, 2009 Projections:  95/15/70/.285/10, Final Numbers:  63/7/53/.250/11

15. John Baker – I have a feeling that Baker might be overrated next year.  Not sure why, just a gut call. (<–helpful, but less provocative than a booty call) Baker was decent for stretches of the season, but he still has very little power, no speed and not a great average.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  59/9/50/.271

16. Matt Wieters - In fairness to me, I projected Wieters’s 2009 stats in January way before I had any clue when he’d be called up.  He disappointed for most of the year, but his September (13/3/14/.362) gives hope that the hype should indeed be believed.  I’m a little giddy to draft him next year, which probably means others are a lot giddy and I won’t get him.  Preseason Rank #21, 2009 Projections:  50/17/60/.290 or the minors, Final Numbers:  35/9/43/.288

17. Rod Barajas – An August when he hit 7 homers and batted .225 pushed him onto this list.  Yes, that was his good month.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  43/19/71/.226/1

18. Ivan Rodriguez – Man, the catchers are terrible this year.  This stunod I wouldn’t have owned in a 20 team league that only used catchers that were traded from the Astros to the Rangers mid-season. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  55/10/47/.249/1

19. Chris Iannetta – Here’s one of the problems with the ESPN Player Rater.  Iannetta wasn’t that terrible.  Okay, he wasn’t that good either.  But his average drags him down a lot.  A terrible average on a catcher is bearable because of how few ABs they get.  See Miguel Olivo for further illustration of this point.  Preseason Rank #7, 2009 Projections:  55/19/70/.265, Final Numbers:  41/16/52/.228

20. Carlos Ruiz – He had 11 April ABs and he made the top 20.  Yikes.  Guess that’s the perfect way to end a terrible year at the catching position.  Ladies and gentlemen, your 20th ranked catcher, Carlos Ruiz.  Belch.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  Do you care?  Final Numbers:  Not good, friends.

Francisco Liriano went four innings and gave up seven runs against a team that absolutely kills lefties in Fenway.  Let’s run down his 3-year averages for the months of the season, starting with April: 6.93, 1.99, 1.51, 2.31, 1.13 and 4.36.  You think he might need some time to get going?  His April combined ERA for the last 3 years, not including this year, is almost 7.  His combined May through August ERAs are under 2. Are you kidding me? Heffin’ hey, trade for him! This might be the best buy you find right now.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Kurt Suzuki – First HR of the season yesterday.  He hit one HR through the middle of June last year.  What is everyone doing at Yankee Stadium?  Is it the Macarena?  The Electric Slide?  No, it’s The Jetstream!

Justin Verlander – 5 IP, 7 ER.  It’ll get better, but it’s not going to get much better to make him a buy candidate.

Joe Saunders – 5 IP, 5 ER.  Take out the Liquid Paper; more corrections to come.

Andre Ethier – Hit his 5th HR yesterday.  Frankly, sometimes I’m wrong. (17% of the time!)  I had my doubts about whether he would produce this year, but he’s doing it.

Hunter Pence – 4th homer, 3rd steal in yesterday’s game.  Marching towards 25/15 and top 30 outfielder status.

Francisco Cordero – 6th save, 1.29 ERA. Member he was a mess in spring training?  Uh-huh.

Kevin Gregg – 1 IP, 1 ER, 6.43 ERA.  Member he was a mess in– Oh, wait.

Johnny Cueto – 7 IP, 0 ER. 2.55 ERA on the season.  In the preseason, I said I was higher on Cueto this year than Volquez.  I wasn’t joking.

Milton Bradley – 0-for-4, 3 Ks.  Batting .043 so far this season when he shows up healthy and it’s not raining.  Cubs fans were booing him yesterday like he was Bartman and a goat’s love child.

Willy Taveras – 0-for-2, batting .268.  Wait, he’s no longer batting .400?  Ah, dim the lights in Ted Williams’s freezer for one more year.

David Purcey – 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER. Still burping.

Omar Vizquel/Ian Kinsler/Andruw Jones – Is there anyone not batting over .400 on the Rangers?  Oh, Salty B. Davis.

Jair Jurrjens – 7 2/3 IP, 0 ER.  1.42 ERA on the year.  I really like Jar-Jar this year.  I don’t think his ERA stays anywhere near where it is, obviously.  But he can keep it around 3.75 with some Ks.

Adam Dunn – 0-for-4. Oh, well. .300’s in the rear view.

Scott Baker – 4 2/3 IP, 6 ER.  Someone’s having a bit of a problem with the long ball.  If you had to ask me if he’s going to rebound in May like CC last year, or if he’s going to become completely unusable like Gorzelanny.  I’d take Gorz and June as the under.  I think Baker’s headed for the Disgraceful List. You don’t give up 7 home runs in 8 and two-thirds and just suddenly say, “Hey, you know what?  I just realized I was supposed to be throwing the ball harder.  And in better locations.”

Brian Bannister – Maybe he just likes pitching in April.  Pumpkin’s ETA is one week.

Josh Fields – HR, 3-for-5, batting in the 2 hole.  If this sticks, and, with Ozzie, anything’s possible, this could boost Fields’s value a lot.

Carlos Villanueva – Back as the setup man.  Only he was setting up Todd Coffey.  The Baron, frequent commenter/guest poster, pegged Coffey as an out of nowhere closer that gets 30 saves this year as Hoffman continues to get injured.  Not as crazy as it sounds.

Chris Young – 7 IP, 6 baserunners, 0 ER.  I like him; you know that.  But it sure don’t hurt when there’s only one guy in the opposing starting lineup hitting .300.

John Danks – 7 IP, 1 ER.  I feel like this guy isn’t getting the respect he deserves.  So far I’ve mentioned him in two of three Fantasy Baseball Buy/Sells as a Buy.  I put him as a starter to target in the preseason.  What do I have to do?  Help me, help you.

John Maine – 5.2 IP, 5 ER.  Outdueled by Joel Pineiro.  I just vomited onto my wall and it reads, “Punt.”

B.J. Ryan – 1 IP, 3 ER. Downs wasn’t much better making this a save situation in the first place by giving up a run.

Rafael Soriano – Got the save yesterday.  It was a tied game and Cox brought in his lefty closer into a tight game to face a tough lefty.  Don’t need to read too much into it.  Soriano’s 2nd in line, we knew that already though.

LaTroy Hawkins – Joey Valgreen’s decomposing right before our ojos – bad back, ankle, and calf.    We have no faith whatsoever in Hawkins but if he asked us to the SAGNOF dance, we’d accept the offer.  If you’ve got Valverde, go buy yourself some LaTroy Handcuffs…

Jay Bruce – Another HR.  This time I had him in my lineup.  Bruuuuuce!

Jeremy Guthrie – 6 IP, 5 ER.  Gotta know when to hold ‘em and know when to fold ‘em.  His team gives him no chances for wins, he faces the top offenses in baseball all the time, he doesn’t strikeout that many guys and he’s only a 4 ERA pitcher to begin with.   You win, world of Guthrie haters.  Are you happy?

Melky Cabrera – 2 HRs yesterday.  4 HRs in 23 ABs this year.  Everybody, come on!  We’re doing The Jetstream! (What? Trying too hard?)

I don’t like Brandon Webb. Why, Grey? Why the hard feelings? Did he have sex with your sister and then make you smell his fingers? No, you sick bastard. In 2004, I owned Brandon Webb in a league that counted Ks minus BBs and Webb had 119 walks that year, which is about twice his usual amount. I left that season vowing never to draft him again. So what did he do since my vow? He went on to become one of the top pitchers in the game. Did he become great as a personal vow of vengeance against me? Probably. Now just because Brandon Webb wants to be petty doesn’t mean I have to be, too. So while he has sucked dog balls over the last month, am I celebrating his struggles during Mojito Night at Case de Grey? No, it’s not necessary. A 6.05 ERA in June is bad. He knows. I don’t need to point out the obvious. Only 14 strikeouts in 22 IP is dreadful. In his last two games his ERA is 9.58. That’s 11 ER in 10.1 IP. Ugh and ugly. So this is great news for me because I get to see Webb struggle, but even better news for all of you that don’t own him. Not simply for the schadenfreude glee you get from seeing your friends miserable. (But that helps!) No, his recent struggles opens up a buying opportunity. Last year his Pre-All Star break ERA was 3.37; Post-All Star was 2.56.  His three year average against is .256 before the break and .239 after. I’m not a huge fan of trading for pitchers, especially not top ones, but while Webb struggles, there might be a chance to get him cheaper than usual. So if you need to get a pitcher, Webb should get better. Anyway, here’s some other players to buy and sell in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Chris Davis – Mentioned this morning. How’s that for timeliness?

Fred Lewis – On one hand, he has a name that sounds like he should be an 80s sitcom character, on the other he has 6 HRs and 13 steals. Consider him a weak man’s 30/30. Say 10/30?

Steven Pearce – Starting to hit everything he sees out of the park. Pirates prospect should get a look soon once the Pirates realize they should be playing for next year. (Yes, they should’ve been playing for next year in March. That’s cute. Did you think up that one on your own?)

Vladimir Guerrero – He already made one Buy list. Guess what? I’m still buying. Not because I think he’ going to go 40/40 after the break, but I do think he will be better than he has been and his price tag is extremely low right now.

Jim Thome – I noticed he was on waivers in one of my ten team leagues. Hmm… Once interleague is over, I’m picking him up. As a utility guy, he’s that bad? (That was rhetorical!)

Wandy Rodriguez – Well you came and you gave without taking, but I sent you away, oh Wandy… Where else do you go to get your fantasy baseball and Barry Manilow fill in one place? (That’s not rhetorical.)

Ryan Church – He should be back this weekend from his concussion. (On a side note, I was hit by a truck in college, knocking me into a coma. Long story short, I was back within the week getting drunk on Lansdowne. The truck was bigger than Marlon Anderson. Seriously, Willie might have made a misstep chucking Church back in there the next day, but now Church’s moving close to pulling a Kotchman.)

Gary Sheffield – Sheffield hates you. He just does. There’s no rhyme or reason. He especially hates those who think he can’t play anymore. To prove your stupid face wrong, he will continue to hit and prove his worth. But Sheff has the distinction of being both a Buy and a Sell. See below why he’s a “Sell.” (Talk about hedging my bets!)

SELL

Gary Sheffield – He’s old and steroids are now banned. Nagging injuries become DL stints and “Sheff needs a day off.” It’s hard for me to hate on Sheff too much; Sheff talks about himself in third person. Grey likes that, but Grey also is not picking Sheff up in any league.

Carlos Pena – If Pena was dropped in any league while he was injured, he’s worth grabbing to see if he can get hot. But, like Chief Jay Strongbow, I have my reservations. Then again, I used to think George Michael was straight, so I’ve been wrong in the past. Wait, this sounds like a Buy. Yeah, it is sorta (Grey’s hedging again!), but I also think Pena will be a season long bust and if Pena gets hot I think he should be sold immediately before he gives you a .220 average.

Francisco Liriano – He might be a Buy again next week, but for now, I’m dropping him. He’s looked bad in his last two minor league starts.

Kurt Suzuki – He had two home runs in the last two weeks and now he’s a hot add. An arm wrestling match between Suzuki vs. Kendall would last for three hours with one of them quitting because of a broken nail.

Eric Stults – I loved him as Rocky Dennis. Is he some kind of wonderful? Eh.

J.D. Drew – He will break your heart, just ask Philly.

Milton Bradley – He hates you more than Sheff. Larry King seems to think Milton Bradley should add “Fun For All Ages” at the end of his name. I think Milton Bradley would Chacon the air from your lungs if he heard you say that.

We’re at the 1/4 mark for the first season of Fantasy Razzball – a fantasy baseball game where you try to manage the worst team possible – and we’re on our way to probably the worst collective stat totals ever seen in a Yahoo! public league. With team batting averages as low as .238 and ERAs and ERAs as high as 5.36, it’s no wonder that Alan Trammell keeps bugging us for a chance to manage one of these teams (See 2003 Tigers team totals).

The top 4 are closely bunched but the leader at this point is….me. That’s right. My team sucks more than the rest. Look at me, ma. I’m king of the third world!

No doubt my 48 point offense (out of 60) has prospered at the expense of the real-life lineups that employ my top two picks (Willy Taveras, Michael Bourn). The two of them have combined for 277 ABs and managed 40 Runs, 3 HR (all Bourn), 12 RBI, 60 Ks, and a .206 AVG. Multiply that by two and you’ve got one AWFUL season. Message to Cecil Cooper and Clint Hurdle: Keep those guys at the top of your lineups. Don’t ruin a good thing…for me!

In 2nd place is our amateur entry from Josh the Non-Blogger – Team DFA (Designated For Assignment? Destined For Awfulness?). He’s overcome surprising starts by Scott Olsen, Edwin Jackson, and Ryan Ludwick with draftees like Franklin Morales (6.39 ERA over 25 IP yet only 2 HR?), Jose Castillo, and Brendan Harris (.248/33 Ks/2 HR/9 RBI) and smart pickups like the one-time apple of my eye Eugenio Velez and Tom “I’m Punto’s Backup” Tolbert.

In 3rd place is April league leader Cards In The Attic. Coincidence that his drop from 88 to 78 points started around the time that Pittsburgh dropped the anchor of his staff (and an anchor on their staff) Matt Morris? I blog to differ.

The 4th team of the top quartet is Roto Professor – who is so dedicated that he scouts Razztastic performances in the minor leagues. He’s smartly banking on the Giant offense (Ortmeier, Durham, Winn) but needs to find more AB machines like Kurt Suzuki and Jason Bartlett to avoid the minimum AB penalties (He’s currently about 320 AB off the pace of 5200 AB – the pro-rated stats definitely have an impact…e.g., goes from 20 to 25 HRs after applying 80 ABs of pro-rated 35 HRs.)

Other notes:

5th place Mop Up Duty’s team is looking good (bad?) relying on high AB/low performance middle infielders like Julio Lugo, Felipe Lopez, and David Eckstein. Also liked their recent preview on interleague play.

Biggest gainer in the last 20 days or so has to be the Fantasy Baseball Generals moving from 10th to 6th. Their ridiculous 3.17 ERA / 1.17 WHIP finally regressed (progressed?) to the mean with a move to 3.78 / 1.27. Keep up the bad pitching.

Blogmate Grey has fallen to 8th place. Ha ha…you don’t suck!

The team fielded by the blog formally known as GOTOS – now FantasyPhenoms – is suffering from a roster full of benchwarmers. Stop spending so much time on your fancy new blog and pick up some every day players. Their team’s 14 HR boosts to 31 HR because of the minimum-AB penalties. (BTW, here’s an interesting rank of pitchers they did – a little stat wonky but good.)

And in last place, our occasional contributor Lou and his Defunct Baseball Lab. Defunct indeed. I think you have to spend less time writing about great fantasy baseball players and start reading my Razzball Spotlights!