Fantasy Baseball Advice

Matt Holliday hits the 15-day DL with a strained hamstring. I wouldn’t be surprised if he just sat for a few days and pushed through it if the Rockies were in a better position team-wise. Well, ain’t that a kick in the pants? In one NL-Only league I have Holliday, I’m pretty much screwed. Some people who are out there in some leagues (this is the order I’d pick them up, but, as always, it depends on needs): Mike Cameron, Bill Hall, David Murphy, Jose Guillen, Gary Matthews Jr. or Joey Gathright. Then there’s Seth Smith, another stopgap replacement for Matt Holliday, is the rookie call-up that should be replacing him (at least against righties) while Holliday’s on the DL. Is he worth a flier? Sure, but he’s got two strikes against him. 1) The Rockies seem convinced he’s nothing more than a pinch-hitter and 2) The Rockies have options in the outfield. Hopefully you have some maneuverability so you can just pickup a hot hitter and not have to worry if he’s an outfielder. Holliday swears he’ll be back in two weeks on June 8th; he better not pull a Kotchman. Anyway, here’s what I saw yesterday:

Clayton Kershaw – The most hyped non-Mexican, non-Jew Dodgers lefty of all-time. He has the kind of stuff that can battle back from being behind on hitters. Pretty impressive debut. Of course, his ownership is contingent on the farkakteh Yahoo waiver process. I know they are reading this, because they’ve linked here before, so I’m going to explain something to them. Everyone else can skip ahead. Rudy covered this already in one post; I’m adding my two cents. Yahoo, take everyone that is sent down to the minors and pull them from waivers until they are called back up. So if they are not currently rostered and they are in the minors, then they are unavailable. Rich Hill? Yup. Homer Bailey? Yup. Sidney Pollack? Well, he’s a film director, so he should be unavailable too. I prefer everyone is available, but obviously you can’t figure out how to do that. CBS Sportsline and ESPN are doing a lot better job than you, so I’m assuming it’s a financial decision on your part. Well, financially it can’t take much programming (I’m pretty computer-stupid, so I’m not sure about this) for you to simply make everyone in the minors unavailable. This way at least there’s an even playing field. Right now, some minor leaguers are available and others are not. It feels completely willy-nilly and it causes unnecessary confusion. Why would Jay Bruce be available and Clayton Kershaw not be? There’s no reason other than a complete lack of regard for your customers. If this is not rectified by next year, I will do everything in my power to direct people to any site other than Yahoo. Okay, carry on. And thanks for reading!

Kevin Kouzmanoff - A Padres hitter besides A-Gonz that is hot. Weird! Kouzmanoff was a preseason favorite of mine because I figured he’d build on his strong ’07 second half. Well, it didn’t work out fully like that early on, but he is getting hot now. Here’s hoping he stays hot.

Aaron Cook – Sure, he averages four Ks a game if you count the front and back of his jersey, but he can be useful.

John Maine – If I have a pitcher facing another pitcher on my team or pitching at Coors, I almost always start him. I figure there’s no reason to have a guy if you’re not going to start him. Maine went against Cook today on my ten team mixed league and it worked out fine.

Jon Lester – Make-A-Wish sends Lester back out to do battle on his own.

Ryan Zimmerman – Being outslugged by Aaron Boone. Awesome!

Corey Hart – Last year he didn’t get hot until June. Hopefully that doesn’t mean he’s going to get cold a month earlier this year.

Manny Parra – I think a minor league stint might be in his future. As he’s been pretty, um, sub-Parra.

Cole Hamels – I hate to the bearer of bad news, but knowing Hamels, a bad outing means he’s injured. I sure hope I’m wrong. In his defense, he had a ten minute delay because Carlos Lee bonked the ump with his bat.

John Smoltz – Experienced tightness in his shoulder. The Braves don’t consider it setback. Nah, why would tightness in a shoulder be a problem for a pitcher over the age of forty? I told you two weeks ago to try and trade him if you don’t need saves. At this point, I’m thinking I’d trade him for another closer if you do need saves.

Daniel Cabrera – If you have high blood pressure, you may want to consult with a doctor or Leo Mazzone before adding Daniel Cabrera to your fantasy baseball team.

Nomar Garciaparra/Andruw Jones/Rafael Furcal – When Torre was asked how he felt about the injuries hitting Garciaparra, Jones and Furcal, Torre said, “Two out of three ain’t bad.”

Justin Verlander/C.C. Sabathia – Both pitched well, neither got the win. It’s like their poor Aprils pissed off their teams and now they’re not speaking. Maybe in their next start they can get makeup sex.

Josh Hamilton – He was ejected yesterday. Let’s hope it doesn’t send him on misbehavior spiral. Hopefully he just gets another tattoo and calls it a day.

Fausto Carmona – He’s expected to miss about four weeks with a strain in his left hip. Carmona was seen muttering, “Why can’t I have hips like C.C.? He’s got them good girthing hips.” For his owners, don’t worry, get Laffey. Actually, worry.

J.J. Putz – He blew a save to give the Yanks a three-game sweep. The Mariners management is contemplating whether to outsource the team to Asia.

Jorge Cantu – He hit two more home runs yesterday. What does Florida have to do to suck? Their owner must feel like the female owner in Major League.

Evan Longoria – He gets another big late inning hit. If it weren’t for all those early and mid innings, he’d be hitting higher than .246. Longoria is going to be great. Odds are it won’t be this year. There are more Gordons than Brauns.

Carlos Quentin – While Carlos Quentin may have 14 HRs, Eric Byrnes still has better hair.

Aaron Harang – 9 Ks in 4IP. How hard do you think Dusty had to twist his arm to enter a game facing the Padres at Petco?

Corey Patterson – After going 0 for his first 8 ABs, Corey was successful in sacrificing a player to second. It’s fitting because when Red fans think of sacrificing a player, they think of Corey.

Jay Bruce – Red fans are calling for Bruce so much they sound like they’re from Jersey.

Edinson Volquez – He got Dustied today. No idea how Dusty throws a rookie pitcher out there two days after he threw more than 90 pitches. Somewhere, Mark Prior sheds a tear like a commercial Native American crying at environmental abuse.

Direct TV – I love how I watch a game for six hours and then it cuts out three minutes before Adrian Gonzalez hits a game-winning home run. Maybe Direct TV’s the mastermind behind Yahoo’s waiver process.

When I go for chicken ‘n waffles, they have to be smothered in gravy; that’s just the way I like ‘em. And I love me some Red Rooster Hot Sauce. I can do without the hot sauce, but it makes the whole experience so much better. I mention this for two reasons, 1) I’m really hungry and my woman’s taking a long time preparing my eats and 2) a rookie pitcher like Manny Parra is the hot sauce. You shouldn’t expect them to win your championship. You have your chicken ‘n waffles and gravy. You need those components.  (Yes, I’m calling chicken, waffles and gravy components.) But the extras — the hot sauce — the rookie pitchers, the ones you don’t count on, they make everything that much better. Actually, I’m not sure if that metaphor makes any sense, but like I said, I’m hungry so bear with me. I don’t think Manny Parra is out there in too many leagues, but if he is, you should jump on him. The hot sauce can make all the difference. (Okay, just returned from dinner to finish this post and that pre-dinner rambling made a surprising amount of sense. You’re welcome.) Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Mike Mussina – If you have him on a team, you’re probably reading this site for the pictures.

Erick Aybar – Left yesterday’s game with a hand injury. Chone Figgins says, “Ah-ha,” a’la Nelson from The Simpsons.

Ryan Ludwick – Vincent aka The Queen’s Assassin was asked about in the comments recently. Crux of the question was, “Can Ludwick keep up this pace?” My abbreviated/edited answer, “Chances he keeps hitting three home runs a week? Slim to anorexic. Can he get to 30 home runs? Probably. He’s about a HR/15 at-bat guy. LaRussa’s your biggest obstacle right now because there’s a chance he starts some other schmohawks in the outfield over Ludwick and Rasmus is waiting in the wings too. I’d say that Ludwick can net you 65/28/80/.270.” And that’s me quoting me!

Salomon Torres – He could be back on as the Brewers closer since Backne is complaining of stiffness.

Clint Barmes – Homered in third straight game. Deer Meat plots its revenge.

Kevin Kouzmanoff – He has absolutely killed me thus far in my ‘pert league. Get a load of this one, this was his first three RBI game of the year. That’s pathetic. According to Elias Sports Bureau, this is the latest point in the year that anyone’s knocked in three runs for the first time after starting a majority of their team games. (Elias Sports Bureau didn’t actually say that. But here’s some things that were overheard last week at the Elias Sports Bureau, “For the first time in three years, the soda machine ran out of Dr. Pepper before Orange Crush,” “Patrick slept with his secretary sixteen times before telling the same co-workers he swore not to tell,” “On March 3rd, the elevator stopped at every floor three times before it stopped at the fourth floor once. This is the first time in the history of the Elias Sports Bureau elevator that this has happened.”

Corey Hart – Looks like he’s finally getting hot. About time, now maybe he can send that elixir Alexis Rios’s way.

C.C. Sabathia – Now has a 1.17 ERA and a 28/3 K/BB ratio in his last three starts. He’s still 77% Number One Starter and 23% Twinkies. (The margin of error is plus or minus four percentage points.)

Yunel Escobar – Was helped off the field after taking Church’s noggin to his knee. I’m hoping this is nothing because he’s been most of my offense on one team. I’m talking to you, Kouzmanoff!

Daniel Cabrera – I feel like he will burn you at any moment, but he’s thrown eight consecutive quality starts and didn’t walk anyone against the Yankees, a team that draws walks against Carlos Silva. Whoever took the risk and grabbed him late or off waivers could reap serious rewards this season. Unfortunately, I didn’t pick him up in any league. *sniffing the air* I smell like vagina.

Adam Jones – He went 4-for-5 and knocked in four RBIs yesterday. (He’s beating you, Kouzmanoff.) I dropped Jose Guillen in my ‘pert league to grab Adam Jones. I figured that I know what I’m getting from Guillen, but with Adam Jones, who knows, maybe he’s adjusted quicker than anyone thinks he can. ‘Member he was a lot of prognosticators’ choice for AL ROY in the preseason. (BTW, prognosticators was your Word of the Day.)

Chad Billingsley – I’m thinking Billingsley can win a Cy Young in two years and he will be in my top twenty starters for next year. Yeah, I’m crushing hard.

Chase Headley – He didn’t do anything yesterday. (Well, I’m sure he did something. I mean, he is alive and all. Some extremely large people considering eating ‘doing something.’ Others consider Yahtzee ‘doing something.’ So Chase was doing something, just not sure what it was. But I digress.) The reason why I mention him is because this morning I picked him up in the same ‘pert league. (Yeah, when you have Kouzmanoff, you scrounge for offense.) He seems like he’s due up within a week or two. (June 1 gives the Padres some extra arbitration time.) I don’t know if I’m going to have him by the time he’s called up, but if I do, then I might have an extra piece on offense. He hit nearly .350 in spring training with pop. And, really, it’s not like he can hurt the offense that the Padres are trotting out there every day, so why wouldn’t they bring him up? (BTW, there were three sets of parentheses in this entry alone. That’s impressive. (And four if you count that one (Wait, that’s five) Now six) Infinity!)))

Wow, that’s an exciting title, huh? I’m sure it will be a big seller for Google searches. Right after the search bukkake + carved pumpkin faces. Whatever, it’s boring to talk about fourth starters for your fantasy baseball team, right? What do Oliver Perez, Randy Johnson, Aaron Harang and some other schmohawk who didn’t pitch well yesterday have in common? They didn’t pitch well. Jair Jurrjens and Shawn Hill did. I’ve touted Jurrjens and Hill in the past on this site. Search on the left if you don’t believe me (it hurts that you don’t believe me, but I’ll get over it). I’m not even sure how to spell Jair Jurrjens’s name half the time, but he’s on a lot of my teams. Why? They’re both cheaper than dog balls to acquire and will put up decent numbers. Jurrjens gets the Padres next time and Hill gets the Astros and Cassel. If you need to Mapquest your way to your waiver wire, do it. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Shane Victorino – The Flying Hawaiian is now the The Benched Fourth Phillie Outfielder™. Heffin’ hey, take Jenkins out of the lineup! Werth has looked the part of starter thus far, but Jenkins? Can I have “Has-Been Players” for one hundred? He is to Milwaukee what Luis Gonzalez is to Arizona. Who is Geoff Jenkins, Alex? Anyway, Victorino’s got too much to offer to be a bench player, he’ll be back in there. Werth’s a six hole hitter (which Jenkins is too) and Victorino’s a one or a two. It’ll all work itself out. Say Victorino doesn’t start for two weeks then he gets what? Four and a half more months to play. He can still get to 15/40. He only played in 131 games last year and he got 12/37. Patience is key.

Chase Utley – I misspoke when I said Chipper’s going to be the Player of the Month. I hope Phillies fans don’t throw any batteries at me now.

Kevin Kouzmanoff – Looks like he just needed some razzing to get going. Actually, he hit the home run off Jamie Moyer, who I believe is a grandpappy, so we probably shouldn’t start giving ourselves a reacharound just yet.

Jon Herrera – The new Rockies 2nd basemen as Barmes takes over for Tulowitzki. Herrera’s minors numbers look, well, minor. By ‘minor,’ I mean don’t even bother picking him up.

Jonthan Sanchez – I like him, don’t get me wrong, but his K/BB ratio is not good. He’s liable to have some tough starts ahead.

Austin Kearns – Some how he ropes me every year. I will never tout him again. Please remind me if I ever forget this. Besides never performing well something else that bothers the popcorn out of me — he never seems to care. I officially hate Austin Kearns. Somebody should start austinkearnssucks.com. I have my hands full.

Conor Jackson – Another home run; he can get to 20.

Nick Blackburn – Twins always seem to farm usable pitchers, some times great ones. Blackburn seems usable, not great.

Carlos Quentin – Seven home runs and counting. How about you give me your login and I pick up Quentin for you?

Nick Johnson – Okay, this is uncanny. Nick Johnson after a 3-for-3 game — Nick Johnson after an 0-for-4 game.

Mark Grant – Who? The retired pitcher/Padres announcer. Why? Cuz he’s got a stalker.

Felipe Lopez – Belliard hasn’t had an official at-bat since April 20th.

Travis Hafner – Hafnot wasn’t even starting against Washburn. The same Washburn who Hafnot has lifetime’s numbers of .400/3/7 in 20 at-bats.

Franklin Gutierrez – The Big FraGu is 9 for 20 on the homestand.

Russell Martin – Home run, but more importantly getting rest from catching by playing third base. He probably won’t get position eligibility at third in most leagues and it doesn’t really matter. You want him at catcher anyway.

Micah Ownings – He hit a pinch hit home run! But I didn’t see because they like everything big in Texas, including commercials.

Randy Johnson – Just a bumpy beginning in what was an otherwise decent start.

Xavier Nady – I told you in the first three days of the season to just pick him up. Nady finished April with 26 RBIs while batting .337. I’d say unload him for someone more trustworthy, but I can’t imagine anyone’s actually buying into this.

Alexis Rios – As member of Da Razzpound pointed out yesterday, he’s been leading off, which would hurt his RBIs. But it’s not going to stay that way. He’s the Jays best hitter. You don’t bat your best hitter leadoff then Rolen third. I mean, this isn’t the Red Sox or Yanks lineup we’re talking about, the Jay aren’t that deep to be batting Rios leadoff. Again, patience.

Dustin McGowan – He’s not out of the woods yet, but getting into the eighth with only one walk is a great thing, know why? Cause now he has some value for you to trade him.

Daisuke Matsuzaka – Another guy that had a good start, that I’m not going to get behind. (Frankly, I have a hard time getting behind any American League pitchers, especially ones in the AL East. But I digress.) You can trade him and still be a Son of Sam Horn, they don’t check your teams for Sawx, do they?

Josh Hamilton – Weird how smack and crack are used for both the sound the bat makes when hitting the ball and for drugs.

Brian Bannister – He got smoked by Josh Hamilton.

Derrick Turnbow – Six runs in two-thirds of inning is the kind of middle reliever hit that really hurts. It was a bad situation with the game out of hand. He shouldn’t been in there, and hopefully you didn’t have him in there.

Wladimir Balentien – Rudy just picked him up in one league. Hey, ya’ll, Rudy knows what he’s doing. At the age of 24 in Triple A, Balentien’s numbers were 77/24/84/.291/15. Look at those numbers again. You’re welcome.

Adam Lind – This is who I added in a deep league. Numbers, please… .378 career OBP in almost 1400 at-bats minor league at-bats. Last year he received almost 300 at-bats from the Jays and hit 11 home runs with a putrid OBP. The fact that the Jays called him up already and have been starting him tells me they are committed. He’s, as they say, a flier. I kinda like Balentien better, but I thought I’d spread the Razzball love.

Casey Kotchman – His average isn’t as much a fluke as you might think. He still won’t hit 30 home runs.

Jeff Clement – Eligibility count: 1 game at catcher.

Dioner Navarro – He got 2 RBIs; Salty didn’t play.

Chad Billingsley – I liked him coming into the season. Still do. A pitcher with his stuff, in his division, in his park, it’s almost not fair.

John Smoltz – He says he will come back as a reliever at least initially. I say, he’s not going back to starting. This also takes the shine off of Acosta and Rafael Soriano. Smoltz will get the bulk of the saves.

Max Scherzer – In his relief appearance, Jobacum left without a stain. Now he’s getting the start over Edgar Gonzalez on Monday for his first major league start. Too bad he’s not on the Rangers, then there could’ve been a battery of Jobacum-Salty. For next Monday’s start, I guess we’ll have to settle for Jobacum discharging the Phillies.

(NOTE FROM GREY: Last week I sent out feelers to the top baseball team blogs to see if they would be generous enough to write a quick preview for their favorite team. So over the course of the next two weeks, mixed in with your daily fantasy info, you will get some of the most astute, in-depth coverage of teams around the major leagues for the upcoming 2008 season from the people that know these teams best. Each post will include a link to their site, please take time to visit these bloggers’ sites, because these posts are truly the tip of the iceberg for their team knowledge. Now enjoy the 2008 San Diego Padres preview.)

When evaluating Padres players in terms of fantasy value, it’s important to consider their home park. The Padres play half their games in an environment that stifles offense, particularly home runs. This means that their pitchers tend to perform better than might otherwise be expected, while hitters tend to perform worse. Each individual is different, of course, but this is a good thing to remember in general.

What follows is a position-by-position look at the 2008 Padres. I’ve also included a few (hopefully useful) tips at the end. Enjoy!

• Catcher

Josh Bard is an above-average hitter at his position. The downside, from a fantasy perspective, is that his 2006 power surge appears to have been a fluke. Bard hits a lot of doubles and draws a lot of walks, both of which are more useful in real life than to your fantasy team.

Michael Barrett was a train wreck after coming to San Diego in 2007. He looked lost at the plate last season, but he’s only 31 years old and he was a top-shelf offensive catcher from 2004 to 2006, so he could rebound. Barrett’s playing time is uncertain, though, and Petco Park is a tough place to re-establish one’s offensive game.

• First Base

Although Adrian Gonzalez probably is a better hitter than, say, Brad Hawpe, fantasy owners must temper their expectations. If Gonzalez played half his games in Milwaukee or Philadelphia, he’d be an instant MVP candidate. But he doesn’t play in either of those places, so don’t pay him like he does.

• Second Base

The Keystone corner can’t get much worse for the Padres than it was in 2007, when Marcus Giles and Geoff Blum manned the position. Newcomer Tadahito Iguchi’s numbers appeared to be in decline last year. Then he moved to the Phillies late in the season and got to experience the joy of hitting at Citizens Bank Park. He won’t have that advantage in 2008. Like Bard, Iguchi provides greater value to his team than to yours.

• Third Base

Kevin Kouzmanoff is a nice little secret. His overall numbers as a rookie were depressed by a miserable start, but from May 7 onward, he hit .309/.362/.511. Kouzmanoff is a good bet to hit .300 or knock 25 home runs in 2008 – possibly both.

• Shortstop

Petco Park is tough on all hitters, but it destroys Khalil Greene. If he played all his games on the road, he’d be Alfonso Soriano at shortstop. But he doesn’t, and he isn’t. His lack of plate discipline won’t hurt you as much as it will hurt the Padres. Greene is good for 20-25 homers, maybe more, but his batting average seems to be stuck in the .250s. If he can get one more hit a week, Greene will vault into the elite shortstop category. If not, he’ll remain what he is – pretty good, but not great.

• Left Field

Scott Hairston hit everything thrown his way after coming to the Padres late last summer. The question with Hairston is whether he can sustain that over a full season. He’s never been given the chance, but he once was a top prospect and he’s still only 28. Assuming Hairston stays healthy and can build on last year’s success, he looks like a good breakout candidate to me.

Chase Headley is a third baseman who has been moved to left field because of Kouzmanoff. All indications are that the transition has been successful, and it’s just a matter of time before Headley contributes for the big club. If he doesn’t win the starting left field job, he may start the season at Triple-A. Long term, think Jeff Cirillo with a little more power, or maybe Mike Lowell lite.

• Center Field

Jim Edmonds is 38 years old and coming off two straight injury-marred campaigns. His skills appear to be in steep decline, and at this point, he’s good for the occasional walk and home run, but probably not much else. There are better options for your fantasy team, and if you can’t find them, you need to look harder.

• Right Field

Like Edmonds, Brian Giles is in the twilight of a fine career. Turn back the clock 5 years, and the Padres have themselves two-thirds of the best outfield in baseball. Without a time machine, though, they have a couple guys hoping for one last good season.

• Starting Pitcher

In 2007, Jake Peavy had the year we all thought he was capable of having. He stayed healthy and mostly dominated, winning the Cy Young Award in the process. The one area where Peavy could improve is efficiency. Because he throws so many pitches, he never made it through the eighth inning last year. Even so, he is a true ace for a big-league team as well as for a fantasy team. Expect more of the same: 15+ wins, a sub-3.00 ERA, and 200+ strikeouts.

Chris Young was establishing himself as one of the NL’s elite pitchers when he landed on the disabled list with an oblique strain in late July. Young didn’t miss much time, but when he came back, it was without his command. Like Peavy, he is inefficient and sometimes has trouble late in games. A return to pre-injury levels (1.82 ERA) is unrealistic, but assuming Young is healthy, he should continue to be a great option for the front of a fantasy rotation.

Greg Maddux doesn’t get old; old gets Maddux. Lame jokes aside, put the veteran right-hander down for his usual: 200 IP, 4.00 ERA, and an army of frustrated hitters.

The last time Randy Wolf made as many as 20 starts in a season was 2004. The last time he posted an ERA below 4.00 was 2002. Petco Park may help with the latter, but whether the 31-year-old southpaw can make it through a full season remains to be seen.

Mark Prior is the nominal #5 starter but isn’t expected to pitch until late-May at the earliest. He worked 43 2/3 innings in 2006 and none last year. Expect nothing and maybe you’ll be pleasantly surprised.

Justin Germano got off to a great start as a rookie in 2007 before the league figured out that his stuff is eminently hittable. He’s a stopgap solution who, given the track records of Wolf and Prior, may be asked to do too much. Again.

• Relief Pitcher

Trevor Hoffman basically had two bad outings last year. Unfortunately they came at the worst possible times and in full view of a national audience that ordinarily ignores the Padres. Pundits have been prognosticating Hoffman’s decline for years. At age 40 and with less margin for error than ever (keep your eye on the shrinking K/9), he may finally prove them right.

One wonders what the New York Mets might have been able to accomplish last year had they not chosen to discard Heath Bell. The right-hander throws hard, throws strikes, and proved extremely durable in his first full big-league season. Bell may not be able to duplicate his monster 2007, but even if he slips a little, he should hold plenty of value. Bell may get some save opportunities when Hoffman needs a day off and could eventually take over the closer role in San Diego.

There is no more extreme groundball pitcher in baseball than Cla Meredith. He elevated his pitches during the middle months of 2007 but finished strong. Meredith won’t get any save opportunities and has little or no value to fantasy players. If you play in sim leagues, e.g., Scoresheet, Meredith can be a useful part of your bullpen.

• Parting Thoughts

I know what I’ve said about Petco Park, but Gonzalez and Kouzmanoff really are terrific young hitters. Gonzalez has done it two years in a row now, and he’s still only 26. His batting average dropped a bit last season, but his walk rate and isolated power improved.

As for Kouzmanoff, he has a great approach at the plate and hits everything hard. Don’t be fooled by his slow start last year. One thing the Padres like about him is the way he handled himself during that stretch. As a rookie, he easily could have gotten down on himself and lost his job, but if anything was bothering him, he never let it show. He will produce at third base.

It’s a small sample, but Hairston looked legit down the stretch last year. If I had to pick one breakout candidate on offense for the Padres, he’d be the guy.

On the pitching side, Peavy is a no-brainer. Keep a close eye on Bell, too, as he’ll be first in line if Hoffman falters. Even if Hoffman doesn’t falter, he’s good for no more than 60 innings these days, which means some saves could land in Bell’s lap.

Finally, Padres pitchers did a miserable job of holding runners in 2007. Young and Maddux were the biggest culprits. Young has been working on this aspect of his game in spring training, but it’s hard to say how much that will pay off during the season. Base stealers who play in the NL West could have a slight advantage over their counterparts who don’t get to face the Padres as often. It might not be enough to make a difference, but you may want to keep this in the back of your mind.

Happy hunting!
Geoff Young runs Ducksnorts and Knuckle Curve.