Fantasy Baseball Advice

Rafael Furcal returns to the Braves, which can’t be a good thing for 2009 fantasy baseball owners. I mean, it can, but it probably won’t be. This move will have people slightly too excited about Furcal.  Then you throw in his great April in 2008 — hitting .357 with 5 home runs and 8 steals in only 36 games.  Again, this could lead to unrealistic expectations.  36 games does not a season make.  Don’t think Furcal has a .350+ average in his tuba case.  He doesn’t.  Last year, Furcal had a BABIP of .380 in April.  A number that would’ve came down if he played the rest of the season, leading Furcal to be the .285 hitter he is. Hey, a 15/35, .285 hitter is nothing to sneeze at. Oh, yeah? Well, atchoo! No, that wasn’t Casey Kotchman with mono. Furcal is now 31 and hasn’t had a productive season in three seasons.  Maybe he can rebound like Yao Ming, but Furcal’s now coming off back surgery.  Does that still sound promising to you?  It shouldn’t.  If Furcal drops in your 2009 fantasy baseball draft, then, by all means, pounce like Davey Boy Smith, but I don’t want any part of Furcal before the tenth shortstop off the draft board. Unless, and once again for the hyperopic, UNLESS Furcal moves to second base.  Which brings us to…

Yunel Escobar/Kelly Johnson – Um, wasn’t Yunel going to play short?  Okay, so either a trade is going to happen — which Peavy, his family and his goumadas will welcome already — or Kelly Johnson will go to the outfield, Yunel to short and Furcal to 2nd base or Furcal stays at short and Yunel and Kelly Johnson split time at 2nd.  If Yunel doesn’t get out of Turner South and the last option comes to fruition, this could really hurt Yunel Escobar and Kelly Johnson’s 2009 fantasy value. Stay tuned!*

*This post was brought to you by TBS and Frank TV.

UPDATE: Turns out that airline ticket was nonrefundable and this post was brought to by KTLA.  I still think Furcal is nothing more than the tenth shortstop off the board.  What I said about him above doesn’t change. That’s what I see for Rafael Furcal in 2009.   Thankfully, this doesn’t effect Yunel and Johnson like I feared.

Someone who’s friends with Dr. James Andrews just sent him this email, “Yo, Grisly Andrews, quick question. Am I holding onto Hudson or should I pick up Campillo? Also, love to have you over again for dinner, but Mary says you can’t reconfigure a chicken from the bones and scraps. It freaks out the kids. Peace!” Let’s see, so far this year, Dr. James Andrews has seen Hafner, Marcum, McGowan, Estelle Getty, Mulder, Austin Kearns, Freddy Sanchez and now Tim Hudson. That is a Dean’s List of broken dreams and unfilled promises.  As we move into August, you have to make hard and fast decisions and go with the hot hands. So, with that in mind, I’ve already dropped Hudson. His injury sounds like it might need surgery. Even if it doesn’t, an arm injury on a guy who’s playing for a team that decided to pack it in sometime on Monday is not a good thing. In deeper leagues, I probably won’t wait longer than a few days to cut ties with Hudson. It was a good run while he was out there and it’s not goodbye, it’s see you maybe next year. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Jorge Posada – Done for the year. You can go ahead and back date this to April.

Michael Young – Fractured his finger, but vows to be back in a week. I believe it. This guy is so set on getting 200 hits every year I could see him not wanting to score a winning run in an extra innings game just so he might get another at-bat and a chance at another hit. Let’s hope Young never gets to 3000 hits, because if you thought Wade Boggs’s induction into the Hall of Fame was boring, you’ve seen nothing. At least Wade’s speech had the “Is he going to mention Margo Adams?” factor and the “Is he going to start eating chicken?”

John Maine – Shoulder tightness forced him out of the game. In ten team leagues, he’s the next guy I cut. I’m looking at Ubaldo, Meche, Randy and Wandy. (BTW, Wandy should pronounce his name like it rhymes with Randy. Cuz that would be awesome, possum.)

Salomon Torres – Kazaam!

Casey Kotchman – HR yesterday, now 3 HRs in a week. And that’s one home run for every mention of him I’ve done in the past week. That’s my quota. He’s now off my list and I won’t mention him again.

Ian Snell – 7 IP, 4 ER and got the win. This was his second win since April 12th. Wow, what a razztastic season.

Jeremy Guthrie – 6.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 Ks and the win. This performance bought him a two week reprieve on all of my teams. (Maine and Hudson’s injuries didn’t hurt either. I mean, they did hurt, so that aided in Guthrie’s reprieve… Oh, forget it.)

Mike Mussina – 5 IP, 6 ER. Currently reading The Corrections.

Kevin Slowey – Shutout, 6 hitter, 5 Ks. Great start, but I’m not looking at grabbing him in any league. Am I as smart as a 5th grader? You decide.

Alex Gordon – 3-for-4 with a HR. Also the HR was his first against a lefty all year (so of course it came on the bench in the few leagues where I still have him. Sonavabench!). To call Gordon a disappointment up until this point, would be like calling the Astros’ Randy Wolf trade questionable.

Adrian Beltre – 2 HRs. As I mentioned to my Nana and Popsie, Beltre is good in the 2nd half of the year even when he’s not good in the 1st half.

Zach Greinke – 7.1 IP, 2 ER, 11 Ks and the win. I’d point out how I traded Melky to Rudy for Greinke three months ago, but Rudy’s 21.5 points behind me at this point so it would be cruel to point out anything to do with his team. I probably shouldn’t even be mentioning that he’s 21.5 points behind me. I definitely will not be mentioning that I’m also beating him in our Razzball league. By a lot.

Adam Jones – 3-for-6, 5 RBIs, HR. I think Michael J. Fox in “Lucky Man” summed it best when he said, “I became so intoxicated on the nectar of money and the ambrosia of unlimited possibility, that I fell completely under its influence, forgetting for a time that it wasn’t real.” So true, Michael J., but Adam Jones is for real. And has the best ESPN player photo to prove it.

Armando Galarraga was perfect through 6 innings and, for fantasy baseball purposes, Galarraga has been solid all year, but that could all change by next week. No… Don’t deflate me! (Doesn’t that sound like a Coldplay song? Don’t deflate me… As we soar… Through the clouds…. Like balloons… I love Gwynnie…) Galarraga’s sporting a 3.2 BB/9, 6.10 K/9 rate and a .246 BABIP… Grey, numbers and old people scare me! Please. Okay, I’ll take it easy, but his WHIP should probably be in the 1.35 range vs. 1.20. So a lucky BABIP is disinfecting his WHIP. Masking the potential odor. He’s got a strong offense behind him so he might get his share of wins. Just don’t count on his peripherals remaining purdy. Armando Hammer may be from South America but don’t snort him….he’s baking soda. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Casey Kotchman – 5-for-5. If he doesn’t get some kind of kissing disease again from open-mouthing the rally monkey, this could be the start of a hot streak.

Jeff Mathis – Finally hot again. Only took him two and a half months. Eh, doesn’t matter to you, does it? Not like you need a catcher. You do? Oh, well, golly!

Howie Kendrick – 4-for-5. Okay, some of this Angels hitting can be attribute to a thin Indians pitching staff.

Mike Mussina – 8 IP, 0 ER, 7 Ks. 13 Across, Mussina’s season co-hosted by Cathy Lee Crosby, “That’s _________!”

Shane Victorino – HR off Maine. Moves in front of Alexis Rios with his 7th HR.

Carlos Quentin – 2 HRs, up to 26. I know how you feel, it’s all icing at this point. I agree, but say you grabbed (HR-hitting OF who’s on waivers) and traded Quentin for a pitcher. So you have a pitcher and (HR-hitting OF who’s on waivers), who could have the same amount of home runs as Quentin from now until the end of the year.  Things that make you say, “Hmm…”

Chipper Jones – If I’m talking about him, what do you think happened? He’s not hitting .400, he didn’t home run… He was injured? Look at the big brain on Brad. Chipper says he won’t need the DL. Instead, he’ll just clog up your bench. Sweet!

Luis Ayala – Remained the 8th inning setup man and managed to tighten Hanrahan’s hold on the closer job by giving up 3 runs.

Jim Thome – HR yesterday. I feel like Thome’s bringing the potatoes and mashing them, but people are still calling him a turkey. In the last month and a half, he’s batted over .320 with 9 HRs and 18 RBIs. If everyone on your team was doing that, you’d be in first place asking for fanny kisses.

Tim Hudson – Elbow tightness, but word on the streets of Hotlanta is he won’t miss a start.

CC Sabathia – So if he gets 8 straight wins, he’s not going to win the Cy Young because stats don’t carry from one league to another. When was this rule put in place? Before the invention of the phonograph? There’s interleague now, you morons! Why are we counting those stats? This “no carrying of stats” can’t even be defended. There’s no one sitting around in a bow-tie (and really all of these baseball elitists wear bow-ties), saying, “By George, Randy Wolf can still win the Cy Young because he was traded within the same league, but CC can’t. We’ve really figured out a way to make our stats matter!”

Ricky Nolasco – He’s been too good thus far to bail this quickly, but he gets the Mets next. He’s either headed for another Zoinks! or a Rebound! I think we’re looking at a Zoinks! (BTW, Rudy picked up Nolasco for this start in our league. Greinke’d!)

Jarrod Washburn – Trade target for the Yanks. Guess they saw the Randy Wolf move by the Astros and didn’t want to be left out.

James Shields – He’s the mother sauce of a great pitching staff. Mother sauce, I tell ya!

Jason Bartlett – Will be activated on Thursday. He’s been on the shelf all month and he still has 18 steals on the year. It was a knee injury though, so use some caution, you.

Kevin Kouzmanoff – Glad I just traded him so he could start to get hot. *sticking hand in blender like Chunk*

Billy Wagner – Got the save. That ends the Smith-Duaner-Heilman-Feliciano Experiment until Wagner’s next flare up. (Two weeks.)

Mike Hampton – Set to join Braves rotation next week. I bet a bunch of you went back to reread that. Mike who? Hampton what?

Adam Dunn – Grand slam yesterday. They should weigh all MLB players in Dunns. Allow me to demonstrate, “Eric Byrnes is a third of a Dunn,” “So Taguchi is 3 Dunn arms,” and “Mike Napoli is 4 Dunn legs and 7 Dunn sausage fingers.”

Yes, Magic Johnson recovered from AIDS faster than Casey Kotchman beat the kissing disease. Yes, his name sounds like he should be some superhero’s little buddy. No, I don’t have him on any team. So why am I recommending you get him for your fantasy baseball team? Because he knows how to walk. Exciting, right? In six years of the minors his OBP was .407. Last year on the Angels, he had 53 walks against 43 strikeouts. He’s not going to hit 40 home runs. Probably won’t come close to 30 home runs. Back in January, I predicted Casey’s numbers would be 80/22/80/.300 for the season. I’d say those numbers still look about right. Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell.

BUY

Robinson Cano – Supposedly the loss of Larry Bowa is what has been bothering him. Yeah, and Oswald acted alone. Bowa’s family doesn’t even miss him that much. Cano will be fine, go get him before he puts together a hot streak.

Carlos Quentin – I’ve told you three times to pick him up, but I don’t feel the love. Go get him then return to tell me about how you dropped Sheffield for him. I’ll smile. What, you don’t want me to smile?

Khalil Greene - He’s a lifetime .250 hitter so I’m not sure what you’re expecting. Oh, home runs! Yeah, he’ll start hitting them. Patience, as Axl Rose would say.

Travis Hafner – I’m a bit concerned about the lack of walks, and even more concerned about the sore shoulder, but I’d still trade for him. He’s had ten home run months before and can do it again.

Paul Konerko – As I recently told you, he was dropped in my ‘pert league. I put in a waiver claim, but came up empty. He was snagged by someone else. If he’s going to reach his career norms, which I think he will, that’s a lot of hitting he’s going to do the rest of the way.

Erick Aybar – You like cheap speed from your middle infielders? Oh, and he has four Ks in 60 at-bats. I likey.

Shane Victorino – Sure the injury is a concern, but he’s still capable of good numbers and he’s about to come back. He bumps Werth to right giving them two outfielders. (Pat the Bat fields as well as Dunn, which is to say they’re DHs in two years.)

Jose Guillen – This is not to say he’s going to have some sort of incredible rest of the season, but he won’t be as bad as he’s been.

Dioner Navarro – Okay, for all of you people still dealing with a hole at catcher, go grab Navarro. His numbers post-All-Star break last year were 30/8/31/.285/2. He’s only 24. Again, those are post-All-Star break numbers.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia – Melhouse was injured yesterday. I’ve picked Salty up in two leagues. He’ll still have Laird in front of him, but if you really need a catcher, stranger things have happened than Salty getting playing time — one stranger thing was him getting shipped to the minors. To give you an idea of who I’m dropping for him, Qualls in a 12 team and Brocail in a fifteen.

Matt Stairs – Rudy once called Stairs a Poor Man’s Giambi. That was true once, but now Giambi’s actually a Poor Man’s Stairs. Weird, right?

Felipe Lopez – Simply because he didn’t break camp with a starting job doesn’t mean he doesn’t have value now. He’ll need to continue to stay hot to stave off Belliard, but he can go it. It’s not like Belliard has that much going for him.

Clint Barmes – Speaking of shortstops who became 2nd basemen who were then written off, he’s not as good as his last week of starts, but batting high in the Rockies order can’t hurt. But, as we know, deer meat can hurt.

SELL

Brandon Phillips – See this morning’s post. Or not. I’ll sleep okay. I wear a sleep mask.

Gary Sheffield – He’s like the baseball equivalent of Rowdy Roddy Piper. You don’t want to like him, but you can’t help yourself. Personally, I love Sheff. He’s a jackass — an egotistical jackass — maniacal even. What’s not to love? Sheffield this year. I know it hurts, but you gotta let him go.

Francisco Liriano – In all but deep leagues and keepers, you’re not selling as much as dropping.

Jorge Cantu – If someone actually believes the resurgence in Florida, I’d sell.

Asdrubal Cabrera – As if having a first name that sounds like a leaky bum isn’t enough, he’s been sitting for Jamey Carroll. Watch to see if Josh Barfield gets the call at 2nd.

Eric Hinske – He goes and gets hot and the club grabs Dan Johnson and Gabe Gross. Here’s mud in your eye, Hinske.

Alfonso Soriano – Not selling sell him for Manny Acosta, but Soriano’s recurring injuries spell trouble. Not to mention, he’s probably older than Tejada.

Jose Lopez – He’s really not that good when he’s playing well, which he is right now.

Kevin Youkilis – He’s not really as good as his April numbers would suggest. If you have a Son of Sam Horn in your league, trade Yooooook.

Daniel Cabrera – Really I could’ve easily put him on the Buy list; that’s the problem with Cabrera. Every time he turns a corner, he turns another corner and he’s right back where he started. If he just turned a corner and stayed there, he’d be incredible.