Fantasy Baseball Advice

We’ve already recapped all the 2008 fantasy baseball rankings. Yo, I recapped yo’ ass! Now, a look at the rookies. Rookie nookie: 1. the desire to pickup a rookie for their upside over a reliable, but unexciting veteran. 2. Putting a chess piece where it doesn’t belong. We’re going to focus on the first definition for this post. Rookie nookie is like sex with a new partner. It’s all unknown and exciting. There’s no preconceived notions about who’s going to be on top and who’s going to refuse to bring Marshmallow Fluff into the bedroom. When you pickup these rookies, they can be anything. Mike Aviles can hit .400, Evan Longoria can hit 50 home runs, Jacoby Ellsbury can steal 100 bases. For just a moment, it’s Christmas morning, you’re eight-years-old and inside these wrapped boxes could be a 40/120/.370 hitter. Now that I’ve put my clothes on backwards and Kriss Krossed about six different metaphors, I want to say I’m a pretty big believer in rookie hitters. Usually their price tag brings very little downside and, when you’re dealing with 5th OFs, CIs or MIs, you really want to take gambles. Anyway, here’s the top 20 rookie hitters of 2008:

20. J.R. Towles - I told everyone in the preseason to avoid this schmohawk like the plague. Honestly, I didn’t even think he’d be this bad. Final Numbers:  10/4/16/.137

19.  Carlos Gonzalez - Bleech.  Final Numbers:   31/4/26/.242/4

18.  Daric Burton - See Carlos Gonzalez or 1/18 of an inch above.  Final Numbers:  59/9/47/.226/2

17.  Brandon Wood - I keep liking this guy, eventually he’s going to have to play, right? I mean, how many subpar brothers (Erick and Maicer) of already subpar players (Willy and Cesar) can one team play? Final Numbers:  12/5/13/.200/4

16.  Taylor Teagarden - There was about a two week period there were Teagarden hit a home run in every game he played. Unfortunately, the Rangers feel the need to have four Major League-ready catchers. Grey to the Rangers, “Choose one catcher and trade away the rest. You’re welcome.” Final Numbers:  10/6/17/.319

15.  Pablo Sandoval - This is a bit Jayson Stark of me to point out, but in over four hundred less at-bats than Bengie Molina, Sandoval had only 22 less runs scored. And Molina had a good year by his standards! <– Sorry for the exclamation point, but I felt it was necessary. Final Numbers:  24/3/24/.345

14.  Chris Dickerson - Dickerson’s on my short list of guys I’m watching in 2009 Spring Training. To clarify, that is not a height-challenged list. Final Numbers:  20/6/15/.304/5

13.  Chase Headley - Rudy and I were talking (we talk, ya’ll!) and I think we might make Razzball an anti-Padres hitter site. This is still in the discussion stage. Final Numbers:  34/9/38/.269/4

12. Ian Stewart - With 2nd base eligibility, you coud’ve done worse. Like any schmohawk that was playing 2nd for the Padres. Final Numbers:  33/10/41/.259/1

11.  David Murphy - Does he yawnstipate me because his name is so boring or because of his numbers?  Prolly a bit of both. (BTW, in case you haven’t noticed, I’ve fully adopted turning probably into prolly. I haven’t embraced anything this freely since Z. Cavariccis in the late ’80s.) Final Numbers:  64/15/74/.275/7

10.  Kosuke Fukudome - Didn’t like the latest import from the Far East in the preseason and that panned out. Final Numbers:  79/10/58/.257/12

9.  Denard Span - He replaced Carlos Gomez at the top of the order and showed a disciplined eye. Who is Denard Span, Alex? Final Numbers:  70/6/47/.294/18

8. Jay Bruce - When Jay Bruce was called up there was a large group of people on Razzball that thought they saw the messiah. Unfortunately, when Bruce went to walk on water, the Ks sunk him. He’s still only 21 and there’s no reason think he won’t be great. Final Numbers:  63/21/52/.254/4

7.  Mike Aviles - This year, the peasant Royals had a few gems. Aviles was one. Final Numbers:   68/10/51/.325/8

6.  Chris Davis - His average this year will be exploited in a full year’s worth of play, but he was fine in 2008. Final Numbers:  51/17/55/.285/1

5.  Joey Votto - Was the Barbara Hersey to Jay Bruce’s Bette Midler. Please, like you’ve never seen Beaches. Final Numbers:  69/24/84/.297/7

4.  Alexei Ramirez - Premenopausal Alfonso Soriano showed flashes of power rather than hot flashes. Final Numbers:  65/21/77/13/.290

3.  Jacoby Ellsbury - I almost placed Ellsbury number four and Alexei Ramirez here at number three, but 50 steals make a big difference and 9 home runs aren’t exactly Juan Pierrey. And, yes, Juan Pierrey is an adjective. Look it up! Final Numbers:  98/9/47/.280/50

2.  Geovany Soto - Usually everything the Cubs fans root for turns to crizz-ap, but not this time. Final Numbers:  66/23/86/.285

1.  Evan Longoria - The Rays didn’t Scrooge us out of Longoria as I feared in March and Longoria didn’t Alex Gordon us out of a good rookie year. Final Numbers:  67/27/85/.272/7

The Rangers traded Eddie Guardado to the Twins for Mark Hamburger. If Hamburger doesn’t ring a dinner bell, that means you’re not related to him. With the trade of Eddie Guardado, Frank Francisco, whose claim to fame until yesterday was tossing a chair at a lady in the stands, will get the nod to take over as the Rangers closer. Actually, the chair toss might still be his claim to fame. After being instilled as the Rangers closer almost a month ago, Guardado only got 2 saves, so expectations for Francisco, the closer, should be kept in check. I suppose expectations for Francisco, the hot head, are endless. If you’re in a tight saves race, you take the flier on Francisco. Just because Guardado didn’t succeed doesn’t mean Francisco can’t. Remember Guardado was traded for a Hamburger. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

John Maine - Not sure if you dropped him yet, but you should. He’s done helping you this season. (Yes, you could backdate that to June.)

Luis Castillo - If you’re desperate for a MI, I still wouldn’t look at Castillo.

Mike Pelfrey - First time in 13 years a Mets pitcher has pitched back-to-back complete game victories. Of course this comes a week and a half after the Mets say they were going to limit Pelfrey’s innings. That’s what losing Maine and Wagner will do to you. Was kinda surprised Pelfrey didn’t strikeout 20 and throw a perfect game. He can do nothing wrong right now.

Victor Martinez - Should be back any day now. Am I taking a flier in any league? Nah, but he could have a respectable month.

Travis Hafner - He’s experiencing soreness in his shoulder.  If you’re holding him for when he returns, prepare to be Pronk’d!

Franklin Gutierrez - HR yesterday. The Big FraGu is hitting .338 with 4 HRs and 13 RBIs in August. Like MC Lyte said, Act Like You Know.

Kosuke Fukudome - 3-for-4 with 4 RBIs and had a HR on Sunday. Fukudome was benched a couple of games last week and he probably was dropped in your league. He’s someone to watch just in case he gets hot.

Grady Sizemore - 2 HRs as he secures his 30/30 season and, according to my Stuff On My Cat Desk Calender, we’re not in September yet.

Nelson Cruz - HR yesterday. He had just under 2,000 HRs this season in the minors. New math: Some pop + Arlington = 8 HRs in the last month.

Jimmy Rollins - As Phillies fans readied their batteries, he went 3-for-3. Hopefully Ryan Howard gets sloppy seconds on Rollins’s slumpbuster.

Brett Myers - 7 IP, 0 ER. Like Gary Glitter, Myers has been lights out since the minors.

Yo, Hater Bell, here. Just returned from Tijuana where I stocked up on thirty cases of Rohypnol and three nights worth of donkey show ideas. The things you can do with Tequila, duct tape and a roll of quarters. Now to hatch my plan to take out ESPN’s top fantasy analyst, Eric Karabell, at the next fantasy baseball summit in Spring ‘09. Until then, I gots to take out his heart with my words. En garde, bizznatch!

Karabaloney decided to play with his Speak and Spell again as the ESPN “experts” went over their top 340 for the 2nd half rankings. There’s so many things here that make me long for a decent feedback form on the ESPN page that sometimes I find myself filling in the random restaurant comment card with Karabell suggestions:

The dash of cinnamon on the lamb was not lost on me. Delicate enough for taste, but not too fragrant. Now if you can only explain ranking Michael Cuddyer at 181!

So Kosuke Fukudome was ranked 112 overall using ESPN’s mathematical ranking system:

Jack Daniels(Radio Shack calculator)²= Top 340 Fantasy Baseball Players.

Karabell in his infinitesimal wisdom ranked Fukudome 102. Here’s the Karalogic:

Whille Fukudome hasn’t been quite what we thought, let’s remember this is his first year in the states. I think he’ll hit for a better average in the second half since he does take walks and has seen what stuff MLB pitchers have. Plus, let’s not underestimate what a .300 average is worth. It’s underrated, especially since I see him ending the year there, which means he hits .320 or so over the final two months. I see him ending up with 15 homers and 15 steals, which, combined with a good batting average, makes him near a top-100 player.

You need a Bachelors in Stupidity to fully understand this, but luckily I have my Masters in Throwing Out the Karabage. Let’s see, underestimate what a .300 average is worth? It’s worth .300, right? So he’s helping you about as much as who? Skip Schumaker? Excuse me while I yawn. That’s assuming Fukudome doesn’t continue to nosedive in average as he’s currently doing.

What if he’s more than his overly optimistic .300 average. Let’s say Fukudome gives you a little bit of everything. That’s more vauable, isn’t it? It sure is. So let’s look at the most comparable player, David Dejesus. (Actually, he’s not completely comparable because he did better than Fukudome in the 1st half, but let’s say he is comparable.) If Karabell said Fukudome should be at 102, where’s Dejesus on the list? Dead last at 340. Well, that makes sense. Yo, Karabell, go get your shinebox!

I don’t el-oh-el. It’s kinda girly. I don’t emoticon. It’s seriously not how a man with a ’stache rolls. A man with a ’stache rocks tight white shorts with his balls hanging out and does not care. That’s how a man with a ’stache rolls. A man with a ’stache doesn’t listen to Jack Johnson. A man with a ’stache drafts Ryan Zimmerman and then drops him just after the draft — Just. To. Prove. A. Point. That’s what a man with a ’stache does. A man with a ’stache cries when his vinyl collection falls out of his El Dorado on the way to his DJ gig. A man with a ’stache also cries when he loses Pujols to the DL. I am so effin’ effed in the effin’ Poo-hole. I’m praying he returns in three weeks like the Cards are saying. I’m hoping he doesn’t make a two column list with Pros and Cons on why he should just have elbow surgery while this other setback mends, because I know if I were making that two column Pro/Con list, I’d probably opt for surgery. I really think he might be gone for the year. Anyway, here’s what else I saw in fantasy baseball yesterday:

Alfonso Soriano - Will be out for at least six weeks with a broken bone on his left hand.  The only bright side to Soriano’s propensity for injury is his ability to bounce back from injury. Though he’s still going to be out. With Alfonso off the menu, the choices are now limited to Pie and Stale Cake (Jim Edmonds).

Victor Martinez - Will undergo MRI on his inflamed elbow. I think if you’re going to concoct an injury because you haven’t hit a home run in two months, you’d take the lie a little further than an inflamed elbow. Can’t he cook up a conspiracy that Jim Leyland passed around small pox infested blankets to all the Indians?  That would explain Pronk’s year as well….

Ryan Doumit - Third home run in two days. Is it me or does he remind you of Craig Wilson? (Not Craig T. Nelson aka Coach.)

John Lackey - Into the 8th giving up only 2 runs. I choose him as my AL Cy Young, then I jumped ship when he missed time with arm issues. Now I’m regaining faith in this Angel (sorry, that was dreadful).

Dan Uggla - Walk off grand slam. Wow, I wonder where he’d go, if I were drafting today… *wink wink Razzball Commenters’ League*

Andy LaRoche - My James Loney has a first name — it’s P-L-A-T-O-O-N. LaRoche’s here and he hit a home run. The Dodgers are only starting him against lefties for now. Add him to the marginal 3B pile.

Jason Kendall - Hit first home run of the year. Somewhere a tidal wave hit.

Ian Snell - Now this is the Ian Snell we all know and love! Oh, against the Nats. Well, made for a nice spot start for someone.

Luke Scott/Mark Reynolds - Mentioned them the other day as guys who are streaky and getting hot. Yup, more home runs.

Mike Pelfrey - We are haunted by Berman voices in our head saying - where was the Diamondbacks hitting - well the bats were in the Pelfrey!  Whoop!

Jorge Cantu - Hit two home runs. Yesterday in the Razzball Forums, I said this, “He (Cantu) gets to thirty. He’s overdrafted next year. He’s a disappointment in ‘09. Guaranteed.” I’ll tell you what, I can be quite authoritative when I want to be.

Kosuke Fukudome - The league’s definitely caught up with him, but he just hit another homer. 3 dingers in last two weeks. I put that into Japanese Google Translator then took that translation and put it into English Translator and out came this, “Wrigley blowing out. Jim Belushi could hit home run.”

Halladay is the vet who averages 10 innings a game. AJ Burnett is the high-paid free agent with filthy stuff. McGowan is the prospect that’s on the verge of greatness, but Marcum has the best ERA, WHIP and K rate. That’s right, Shaun Marcum! Wait, who? Um, he’s from Missouri. You know, Marcum! He’s prone to the home run ball and… Let’s see… He’s averaging about one baserunner every seven starts. He has a ridiculous BABIP that’s under .200… (Grey, please no numbers!) Okay, sorry, grasshopper. So what are some predictions? Marcum is a solid #3 starter that should have between a 3.50 and 4.00 ERA the rest of the way. *nodding off* I’m sorry. What? Oh, Marcum! Right! Wow, Marcum is boring, right? He’s throwing a .87 WHIP through May and I can’t get excited about him at all. Maybe it’s because he’s from Missouri. Where is Missouri? Do they have TV there? Isn’t that Cardinals country? Why am I talking about the Cardinals? Cause Marcum’s really boring. But he can be helpful. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Brandon Webb - Has dropped 2 in a row since the 9 game winning streak. If you convince someone in your league that he’s going to lose 7 more in a row, go for it. He’s as good a bet as there is for a starting pitcher right now. Worthy of a straight-up trade with just about any hitter not picked in the 1st round.

Jair Jurrjens - He was removed after 4 and 2/3 innings when he was up 2 runs. Sometimes a Cox yanking doesn’t lead to a happy ending.

Melky Cabrera - After a great April, Melky has been awful in May. Figure he’ll be in-between for the rest of the year which makes him a 15/15 OF who varies from 5th OF to droppable in most leagues.

Jason Bergmann - It’s hard to believe in anyone in Washington, but we’re fast becoming believers in Bergmann. 3 straight scoreless outings with 22 Ks in 19.2 IP. He was a reliever in the minors so it’s hard to project his stats, but he pitched OK last year in his first stint with the Nationals. Ride the streak and see where it takes you.

Corey Patterson - We suggest he move in with Corey Feldman and Corey Haim. They can all star in Lost Boys 2. (BTW, after offhandedly mentioning Sidney Pollack in Sunday night’s post, I wouldn’t stand too close to the Two Coreys today.)

Chase Headley - We told you about Ian Stewart 10 ten days prior to his call-up. We told you about Jay Bruce eight days prior. Headley should be up soon too. So if you’re still holding onto him, keep holding onto him. Let’s reevaluate in a week. (BTW, I don’t think everyone needs Headley, but if you’re weak at 3rd or corner, you might.)

Cristian Guzman - I feel like he could go 100/40/.330/40 and no one would ever pick him up and, next year, no one would draft him. It would be an interesting experiment to see if Cristian Guzman hit 27 home runs in a month, how long it would take for people to think he was for real and pick him up. I’d say he’d still be at 33% owned at the end of the month. Am I saying this because I think he’s worth a pickup and no one is because of preconceived notions? Oh, heck no. I just philosophize about mock drafts and fantasy expertise; you can call me a White-Mustachioed Socrates.

Chad Tracy - No one likes a red-headed stepchild. All he’s going to do is steal ABs from Co-Jack and Mark Reynolds.

Salomon Torres - If you feel like it’s a broken record, I apologize, but he can be the closer for two months. Team decisions about who is getting paid more (Backne) might affect the outcome, but don’t think Torres can’t do the job. “This was paid for by the committee to avoid a closer by committee.”

Ryan Spilborghs - A Corky Thatcher-looking skull that looks like it can be bought at Spencer Gifts is an alien God? Karen Allen looked like she’s too old to be dating Tommy Lee Jones forget Indiana Jones. Shia LaDouce is a tough-ass greaser? Why not just put a comb in Jonathan Lipnicki’s back pocket? *realizing it’s Spilborghs, not Spielberg* Oh, um, Spilborghs has been batting fourth with Holliday out. If he’s facing a lefty, you should absolutely have him in your lineup.

Chase Utley/Ryan Howard - I’m only surprised when one of them doesn’t hit a home run.

Kosuke Fukudome - Lately, he’s been like Ichiro without the speed or Matsui without the power. Either way, he’s in a serious funkudome.

Nick Markakis - I am Sparkakis!

Gary Sheffield - Oblique spasms. Perhaps they were caused by the fork poking him to check if he’s done.