Fantasy Baseball Advice

The other day I went over the top 20 starters for 2008, but, as with the top 20 outfielders for 2008 going to 21 - 40 outfielders for 2008, I’ll also be going through the top 21 - 40 starters for 2008. This is after going through the top 20 catchers, top 20 1st basemen, top 20 2nd basemen, top 20 shortstops and top 20 3rd basemen. All of these rankings are based on the ESPN Player Rater, which sometimes smells of Muenster cheese, but I want Swiss-like neutrality when comparing my preseason predictions with final numbers. For the best player rater, download our Razzball fantasy baseball player rater. (How’s that for neutrality!) Anyway, here’s the rest of the top 40 Starters for 2008 in fantasy baseball and how they compared to where we originally ranked them:

21. Jon Lester - Rather than speak on Lester, I’m going to discuss the obvious problem with pitching. It’s unpredictable. 15 out of these 20 top starters weren’t even ranked in the preseason. This is not to say they weren’t drafted; they were. Just lower than they ended up ranking. Yes, this was me ranking the starters, so perhaps I was the only one not ranking them correctly. No, this isn’t true. Missing on 75% of these starters was Shandler, ESPN, Rudy “Player Rater” Gamble, Sportsline, Baseball Prospectus, Rotowire, et al. Now Razzball has the smartest readers — no doubt — but chances are you missed a few too. Imagine if you drafted Rich Hill, Adam Wainwright, John Maine and Aaron Harang on a lot of teams like I did. Trouble, right? Well, I still finished with respectable pitching numbers. How? Cause I picked up Guthrie, Buehrle, Randy Johnson, Greinke, Volquez and Slowey on a lot of teams. Teams that I needed more help on I had Campillo, Jurrjens, Cook and Ubaldo at varying times. Not to mention, some middle relievers. The point is, as the point always is, pitching is unpredictable. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  16-6/3.21/1.27/152

22. Jake Peavy - In all fairness, out of 89 starters who threw 160 innings, Peavy had the 85th worst Run Support. Preseason Rank #1, Preseason Predictions:  20-5/2.75/1.05/230, Final Numbers:  10-11/2.85/1.18/166

23. Justin Duchscherer - Duchscherer was lucky to place this high. That’s not to say, he sat around with his fingers crossed hoping I would rank him high. No, it’s to say Duchscherer gave up a crapload of hits and didn’t strikeout enough in 141+ innings. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  10-8/2.54/1.00/95

24. A.J. Burnett - So that’s what he looks like healthy — an AL righthanded Oliver Perez. Preseason Rank #24, Preseason Predictions:  14-8/3.85/1.20/170, Final Numbers:  18-10/4.07/1.34/231

25. Ted Lilly - It’s no surprise that I came pretty close with my preaseason predictions for Lilly. He’s predictable. The anti-Oliver Perez. Preseason Rank #35, Preseason Predictions:  16-8/4.20/1.20/160, Final Numbers:  17-9/4.09/1.23/184

26. Zack Greinke - Back in May, Rudy got Greinke’d when I traded Melky for this nervous breakdown-prone starter. Then Greinke Greinke’d me, he posted a 5.22 July, so I dropped him and he ended up posting ERAs of 2.48 and a 2.18 in August and September respectively. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  13-10/3.47/1.28/183

27. Joe Saunders - 103 Ks in 198 innings? Yuck. For fear of Saunders ruling over any team I own with a coup d’blah, he becomes the first starter that has appeared in the 40 forty starters list that I can say right now will not be in my top 40 for 2009. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  17-7/3.41/1.21/103

28. John Danks - Guess what Danks will be next year? A third year starter! Oh, I do love those. But we are still looking back right now. Danks took the next step in 2008. Walks were down, K/9 rose, HRs fell… If you throw out a Snelly July ERA of 4.97, his season would look even better. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  12-9/3.32/1.23/159

29. Gavin Floyd - Here’s someone that I’m not as excited about. If you look past his win total, you’ll see home run balls and not the best strikeout numbers. He showed luck in 2008; don’t bet on luck. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  17-8/3.84/1.26/145

30. Scott Baker - His K/BB and K/9 ratios were solid as he took the right step forward on a team that knows how to handle its pitchers. Now if the Twins would chuck some duckets at a free agent bat, they might be real contenders and not poseurs. (That’s right; I used poseurs in a sentence. Deal with it!) Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  11-4/3.45/1.18/141

31. Josh Beckett - The moral of the story is never count on Wins and don’t trust a blonde in an abandoned bear house with free porridge. Preseason Rank #9, Preseason Predictions:  19-9/3.90/1.20/190, Final Numbers:  12-10/4.03/1.19/172

32. Armando Galarraga - Maybe it’s because his name sounds like he should be contending for the Intercontinental Championship rather than the ERA title, but I never got behind Armando Galarraga this year. (Might also have been his crazy lucky BABIP.) Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  13-7/3.73/1.19/126

33. Scott Kazmir - Kazmir stays relatively healthy, the Rays win the AL East and he only gets 12 Wins. Not to mention, Kazmir usually peacocks his walks with Ks, but they were down this year. Ah… The mystery of Kazmir continues.  Preseason Rank #22, Preseason Predictions:  14-8/3.75/1.30/210, Final Numbers:  12-8/3.49/1.27/166

34. Gil Meche - In 2008, I never threw the Meche net in my starters stream. I had enough with Greinke, who is slightly better if only a bit more risky. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  14-11/3.98/1.32/183

35. Randy Johnson - You know how you have two crazy uncles. (You do; trust me.) One crazy uncle likes to shoot Budweiser cans out of your cousin’s hand and your other uncle married a Tahitian and runs a “hemp” shop. Randy’s the one shooting holes in Buds and Moyer’s toking the hemp pullover. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  11-10/3.91/1.24/173

36. Todd Wellemeyer - A thirty-year-old breakout? Whatevermeyer. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  13-9/3.71/1.25/134

37. Mark Buehrle - Buehrle sported a near-6.00 ERA during the day. He obviously needs some pointers from JDog on his day game. Maybe Buehrle could break out the Joe D. gambit, “Did you see that fight down the street?” Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  15-12/3.79/1.34/140

38. Shaun Marcum - Bummer his season was cut short by Dr. Freeze. We’ll see him on 2010 Sleeper lists. (Also, in 2010, your neighbor will have a flying car that you will be so sick of him parking in front of your 2nd floor bedroom window.) Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  9-7/3.39/1.16/123

39. Kevin Slowey - Hey, Mr. Radke, when you’re done looking at Scott Baker, check out this three pitch induced groundout. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  12-11/3.99/1.15/123

40. Jamie Moyer - (Continued from Randy Johnson) …Then the government comes and confiscates Moyer’s “hemp” store and you’re left looking after his six kids as he does three large in the big house. You decide you’re going to ignore three of the misfits because they’re already gone. The three you do keep an eye on make a commendable turnaround and barely even smell anymore. Then one day you put your Uncle Randy in charge of watching them only to return to ABC Breaking News that Randy and your three cousins were arrested trying to rob a Wells Fargo bank. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  16-7/3.71/1.33/123

One guy you drafted in the 2nd round. The Ethier guy you drafted in the last round just so you’d have someone to draft when Rauch became the closer for the Nots. One guy will get drafted again in the first five rounds next year; the Ethier guy may be grabbed as a fifth outfielder then dropped when he’s doing a blahtoon with some other Dodgers schmohawk. None of this affects what you are doing for the next two weeks of this season. For realz! No, seriously. For realz! Don’t make me get punny…. Fine! Ethier you want to win or you don’t. No one’s going to say in October, “Hey, you came in 2nd, but at least you held onto Doumit. You owed it to him after all the great games he gave you in June.” Throw your loyalty out the window. Vlad was good okay in the summer, but the Angels have clinched and they’re going to rest their big man. Ethier has been the hottest hitter in all of baseball for over a month. Respectively, that’s buy and sell or drop and add at this point in the season, because they mean the same thing. You knew that though, that’s like Econ 101 in the Fantasy Baseball College of Charleston. Anyway, here’s some fantasy baseball players to buy and sell:

BUY

Kelly Johnson - Mentioned him the other day. Where, Grey? My brain hurts! Pickup Kelly Johnson. BTW, you’re lame, random italicized voice in my head.

Asdrubal Cabrera - Batting close to .500 for the last seven games. At this point, I don’t care that he batted .240 on the year or that his first name is a anal leakage diagnosis. This is September! Act like it! (Sorry, for all the exclamation points, but I just bought a new coffee maker and I’ve been going a bit overboard on the caffeine. Speaking of ‘Overboard,’ at least once a year I’ll talk to my Mom and she’ll be watching this Goldie Hawn classic. It never gets old. I think that’s the ultimate mom movie.)

Joey Votto - In the last two weeks, Votto’s been more valuable than Teixeira, Berkman, Atkins, Youuuuuuk, Adrian Gonzalez, Conor Jackson, Casey Kotchman and Prince Fielder. (I don’t endorse dropping Fielder, no matter how good it might feel.) Votto’s the da bomb as they said in high schools back in 2004.

Rajai Davis - It’s with great pause I suggest this schmohawk. But if you need speed, eff it in the cooley and grab Rajai.

Pablo Sandoval - Maybe he won’t slow down until April. Maybe he’ll hit .330 for the next seven years. Who cares? What, you plan on keeping Pudge for next year?

Brandon Wood - For about two weeks now, I’ve been pushing Wood hard. Um… Wait. No, that’s what I meant.

Blake DeWitt - He has 2nd base elgibility. Holy heffin’ hey, are you kidding me?! He’s in Coors this weekend. Why isn’t he on your team? What, you have Polanco? Ugh. I’ll never understand you. Never!

Jesse Litsch - No, I don’t really like the Jays pitcher/slash Rays ex-bat boy, but I do right now. Just be careful against the Sawx next time out.

James Parr - Has yet to give up a run, but that could end in a big way or not. You have to take chances in the final weeks when players like Lackey are being skipped because their club clinched.

Kevin Slowey - I already explained why I think Slowey’s a keeper. Why would you want me to repeat myself?

Bronson Arroyo - I hate this schmohawk as much as the next guy, but he’s pitching well. You have to take some chances in these final weeks.

Taylor Teagarden - 4 HRs in 24 at-bats.

SELL

Gerald Laird - 6 HR in 305 at-bats. See a quarter of an inch above.

John Lackey - Mentioned him above. I know what you’re thinking. His two starts are better than most guy’s three starts. True, but what if they pull him after 5 innings of the 2nd start because they just want him to throw. Or maybe he pitches surrounded by the Angels B offense. Still as appealing?

Victor Martinez - Maybe next year he’ll come back and he’ll be like Resurrection: Tupac, but for right now he looks like Black Sheep’s followup to A Wolf in Sheep’s Clothing.

Rickie Weeks - I gotta say whoever is holding onto him, you show great loyalty. Not the best judgment, but your loyalty is impeccable.

Conor Jackson - Imagine a world where a first baseman gave you a little bit of everything, but that little bit reminds you of a 2nd baseman’s stats. Then you have Conor Jackson attached to play the lead. Would that be something you’d be interested in?

I liked Carlos Quentin going into spring of ‘07. Whoa! You got the wrong year there, buddy? No, no I didn’t. I drafted Quentin in lots of leagues in ‘07 because of his .940 OPS in the minors. He looked like the real deal. Had pizz-ower, spizz-eed and a good iz-eye. (If Jay-Z plays fantasy baseball, he’s so going to be searching Google for some pizz-ower and spizz-eed.) With a spot in Arizona’s outfield locked up, this guy, Quentin, was going to be a superstar. Then ‘07 happened and Quentin was eating from a container of I Can’t Believe It’s Not Better. Then, this season, he finally started to live up to his promise… Wait, what is this? Carlos Quentin, This Is Your Life? You know the deal, he hit well this year. But now he has a fractured wrist. As long as he doesn’t have a setback in the post-season or off-season, I’m liking Quentin. This year was not a fluke. Anyway, here’s some more fantasy baseball keepers for ‘09:

Alexei Ramirez - Nothing for nothing, but he wasn’t supposed to be good. He’s about to be a Latin 27, but I’ve often remarked (I’m a remarker, ya’ll!) that he looks a bit like Alfonso Soriano. Just be careful about who you keep Alexei Ramirez over. Remember Angel Berroa won a Rookie of the Year with eerily similar numbers. (BTW, why can’t anything ever be eerily different?  Olbermann and O’Reilly are eerily different, right?)

Kevin Slowey - I try to stay away from keeping pitchers. In certain leagues or certain keeper teams, it’s unavoidable. Then there’s pitchers I actually want to keep; Kevin Slowey is one. This is the 2nd year in a row that Slowey’s trending in the right direction. Not only are his HRs coming down (literally — oofa!) but his Ks are going up. He used to be compared favorably to Radke, he may just pass those expectations. I will tout him more this winter, possibly building a Slowey shrine (from the scraps of my knocked-down Alex Gordon shrine).

Steven Pearce - On Tuesday, Pearce finally flashed some power for the Pirates that he’s shown plenty of in the minors. To burrow an Austrailian phrase, he can wombat with the best of them. (Yes, I meant to write burrow. It’s a pun, people!)

There’s so much to love about Fred Lewis. Let’s see… Power — check! Speed — check! A name that sounds like an 80s sitcom character — check! I’ll take Fred Lewis in the center square for the win. Alas, Fred Lewis is about to undergo season-ending surgery on a foot bunion. (The operating podiatrist hopes his patented Toe, Hairy and Curly procedure will one day be as recognized as Tommy John surgery.) I still like Lewis for next year, but this is this year, fool! So now it’s up to German Pantyhose to cover for Lewis’s bunions. Schierholtz had a sexy minor league OBP and power. NL-Only leagues and deep mixed leagues should be looking at Schierholtz, especially keeper leagues. There’s no reason why he can’t excel and there’s even less reason why the Giants don’t play him next year. Unless, of course, they sign Aurilla and Vizquel to four-year deals. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Tom Gorzelanny - Left the game with an irritation in his middle finger. Pirates fans will happily give him their middle finger.

Scott Lewis - The Lewis without bunions threw 8 innings of shutout ball. He pitched well in the minors this year and I would take a flier in deep leagues. He gets the Twins next time out.

Eugenio Velez - 2-for-5, 4 RBIs, including the 2nd day in a row that he knocked in the game-winning runs. He’s a 2nd baseman with speed that might now get a majority of the starts over Ochoa.

Brian Wilson - 2nd blown save in a row (that I predicted in the comments yesterday and the day before). He’s not going anywhere as the closer unless he’s hiding an injury, which I doubt.

Joel Hanrahan - Kazaam!

Brandon Lyon - In a sign of solidarity with his fellow Diamondbacks pitchers, he blew his own win. He did manage to lower his post All-Star break ERA to 10.91.

Taylor Teagarden - HR yesterday for his 4th in 24 at-bats. Right now, the Rangers seem like the Rockies of the late 90s. They could plug in Luis Castillo and get 30/100. Yet still suck. Nelson Cruz, Chris Davis, Teagarden, they all homered yesterday and they all could homer tomorrow (or K three times). Recognize!

Kelly Shoppach - 2 HRs yesterday. I have Shoppach, Dioner and Doumit on three separate teams. One was an All-Star, one was hyped up and one backed up V-Mart. Guess which one is doing the best. Fantasy Baseball, this shizz is predictably unpredictable. Ya gotta love it.

Manny Ramirez - Nearly .400 while chipping in 14 HRs and 40 RBIs in 129 at-bats since joining the Dodgers. Good thing the Sawx got that albatross off from around their necks.

Ted Lilly - 8 IP, 1 ER. Wholly inconsistent and I wouldn’t want my fantasy baseball championship decided by this schmohawk, but you do what you do. He gets the Brewers next.

Kevin Slowey - 7 IP, 1 ER. Here’s a schmohawk I can get behind. He gets the Indians next.

James Parr - 6 IP, 0 ER and no relation to Jamie Farr. So far he’s thrown 12 innings of shutout ball. Maybe he’s just got hitters baffled because they haven’t seen him before. Deep leagues should be looking at him just in case he can keep it going. I have my doubts though.

Troy Percival - Left the game with back spasms. The Rays should just have Wheeler play 2nd when Percival pitches to save everyone time by doing a double switch. By his own admission, Percival will be out for a few days. I don’t think he said it in third person like Suede from Project Runway.

Felix Pie - Will see time down the stretch. Weird, cause I really thought Edmonds and Fukudome were doing a spot-on job.

Adam LaRoche - HR yesterday. He’s not only due, but he’s hot. Hot and due (yes, that does sound like a weird preggers porn) is a great combo to have in mid-September.

Kelly Johnson - 2 HRs yesterday. Against righties, he should be started on all teams. When he gets hot, he can put up very nice stats in a short period of time. He’s already hitting .486 in September. Get on that Johnson! (Um, huh?)

Cristian Guzman - 2 HRs yesterday. In other news, smoking is a healthy alternative to “just breathing.”

George Sherrill gave you a whole lot more than you should’ve expected. In fact, he gave you more than you should’ve expected by May. The rest? Icing. But that kind of rational and perspective-laden thinking can get you in trouble. Assuming you had him and need saves, you’ll need someone.  Grab Jim Johnson. (Yes, he does sound like a guy that would hold 30 people hostage and organize a mass suicide.) If you’re set on saves, you still pick up the closer to spite your league! Anyway, here’s what else we saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Billy Wagner - Out indefinitely.  Ayala, Feliciano, Heilman, Sanchez then Smith, that’s not the order I see them getting saves. That’s alphabetical order. As far as Manuel’s concerned, that might be the order they get saves. What’s the difference between Jesus and the Mets’ current bullpen? At least some people have faith that Jesus saves.

Rich Harden - Forever injured in Oakland, Harden has been amazing for the Cubs (and fantasy owners).  Another 10K game.  I wonder if Cubs fans accidentally call him Mark Prior during their masturbatory fantasies.  Billy Beane should sign Mark Prior and hope it is a lucky break in the DL/time continuum.

Ian Kinsler - Might come back from a slight hernia to play the last week or two of the season. Texas ain’t making the playoffs. Don’t strain yourself, Ian!

Kevin Youkilis - HR yesterday. Youuuuuuuk’s been on fire. .414/6/16 in August.

Josh Beckett - Will have his start pushed as he reported tingling in his arm after sleeping on it wrong.  The way the Blue Jays hit him last outing, that’s probably not the only part of his body that’s tingling right now.

Braden Looper - 7 IP, 1 ER. I told you two weeks ago Looper would be lights out in August. So far, he has a 1.93 ERA. Are you waiting until September to pick him up when he’s not good anymore?

Kevin Slowey - Snow White’s K-challenged dwarf somehow struck out 12 A’s in a rout.  As Billy Beane considers whether to trade some of his young prospects for some promising zygotes.

Brandon Lyon - Came into a 4 run game and gave up 3 earned in a third of an inning. Kazaam!

Ricky Nolasco - Two hit shutout with 11 Ks. Against the Giants, but still. This dooode’s been money. N to the Izz-O, L to the Izz-A.  Fo shizzle, my Nolasco.

Clayton Richard - 6 shutout innings against the Mariners.  The only pitchers I wouldn’t spot start against the Mariners pitch for the Mariners.

Aaron Harang - Start pushed back with neck spasms. “He couldn’t turn his head,” said Reds pitching coach Dick Pole. Funny that’s the coach’s name, cause this year Harang’s been a Cock Punch.

Adam Lind - HR yesterday. 4 homers in the last 6 games. Fans up Toronto probably missed it as they were off celebrating Carol Huynh’s Freestyle Wrestling Gold Medal. Okay, but let’s see her take on the Farmer’s Daughter from GLOW.