Fantasy Baseball Advice

I’ve added average draft position (ADP) from MockDraftCentral.com to the 5×5 10/12/14/16 Team Point Shares tables. (NL-only Point Shares are also up for 8, 10, and 12 Team.)

As expected, pitchers are valued higher in Point Shares vs. actual drafts.  There’s plenty of reasons for this – riskier pitchers are undervalued, (mis)perceptions, blah blah blah – but all that matters is finding the best bargains across all positions.

Shorthand for the below.  Any player with a positive (+##) is being picked that many picks after their estimated value.  Any player with a negative (-##) is being drafted ahead of their value.  Plus is good value.  Minus is bad value.

Here are some observations for 1B, 2B, SS, 3B.  I’ll cover the other positions in a 2nd post:

First Basemen

The top 3 after Pujols (Fielder, Howard, Cabrera) are drafted at slight premiums (5-16 picks ahead of estimated value) but the next group of Teixeira, A-Gonz, Morneau, and Votto come at a higher premium (30-55 picks).

The biggest premium is going for Mark Teixiera (50 picks above value – 6th vs. 56th).  My CHONE/ZiPS-derived estimates are 529/89/30/106/1/.284.  Last year, he hit 609/103/39/122/2/.292.  It’s possible that the HR-lift of Yankee Stadium still isn’t fully accounted for in the projections but the biggest difference is 80 ABs which drives up the other counting stats.  In 2007-2008, M-Teix averaged 534 ABs.  The Yanks now have a decent backup 1B in Nick Johnson that can spell M-Teix.  I’d shy on bullishness for Teixeira but I still think he’s below the top 3 above.

So what should you do?  Ideally, grab one of the top 3.  If not, I’d hope one of the next 4 fall far enough so that you’re getting a better deal falling back on better valued Lance Berkman (-8), Derrek Lee (+8), and Adam LaRoche (+84).  LaRoche has an average ADP of 180 where his Point Shares value is at #96 – driven by solid stats across the board.  He’s been a solid 25/80 guy for a while but hitting in a better lineup and park might boost him to 100 RBI level (ZiPS thinks so at least)

Second Basemen

No bargains in the top half of the draft for 2Bs.  Utley, Kinsler, Phillips, Pedroia, Cano and Roberts are all going 11-30 picks above their value with Brian Roberts being the highest.  With reports he has a bad back, I’d stay far away from him this year.  Aaron Hill (-94) and Ben Zobrist (-108) are being drafted on last year’s stats vs. their likely regressed stats. Howie Kendrick (-110) is being drafted on his never-delivered promise.

The best bargains are all players that are weak in one dimension or less than inspiring overall:  Uggla (-2), Ian Stewart (+4),  Polanco (+88), Weeks (+40), Prado (+22), Kelly Johnson (+18).

My advice would be to punt 2B to later rounds unless you can good value for Utley or one of the other top 6 (besides Roberts).  Ian Stewart looks nice if your team is short on power.  A Polanco or Kelly Johnson looks better if your scavenging for a player late in the draft.

Shortstops

Hanley at #2 is fine value.  The next 10 rounds have only one SS at above-average value – Jose Reyes.  If he’s healthy, he’s set to be the 18th most valuable player in the draft but his ADP has been at #23.  Tulo (-30), J-Roll (-38),  and Jeter (-83) are all overvalued in drafts.

If you don’t go for Hanley or Reyes, wait until after the 10th round and there are some good bargains – mostly speed guys.  Everth Cabrera (+93), Asdrubal Cabrera (+12), Erick Aybar (+14), Ryan Theriot (+60), and Alcides Escobar (+43) are all great values.

Later round bad values include the always-overvalued Stephen Drew (-69) and Elvis Andrus (-49).

Third Basemen

This position has almost no good values in the whole draft (unless you consider late-round fliers Casey Blake and Kevin Kouzmanoff exciting).  Almost all the 3Bs are being picked 20-40 picks ahead of their value.  Not sure why this is.

I think this is a position that you should reach for but just try to get the best bargain.  I think Point Shares is overvaluing David Wright and undervaluing A-Rod (low playing time estimate from BP) so here are my amended 3B value picks:

- A-Rod – 4th pick or later.  His ADP is #3 but I think Braun is better.
- Wright/Longoria – Anytime after pick #12.  I’m taking one of the top 4 1B instead of them.
- Reynolds – Anytime after pick #25.  #18 ADP too high for me given the unreliable SBs and AVG.
- Zimmerman – Anytime after pick #33.  Zimmerman in the 3rd round is a solid pick in my eyes.
- Sandoval/Youk – Anytime after pick #50.
- Aramis – Anytime after #65
- M Young / Beckham – Anytime after #90
- Figgins – Anytime after #120 (yeah, pretty much saying don’t draft him.  Kills you in HR/RBI for 3B)

I suggest you grab a 3rd baseman before leaving the top 100, but that’s not always possible.  So, if you miss out on one,  this list is guys that can be had later in your drafts.  Look at this as a supplement to the top 20 3rd basemen of 2010 fantasy baseball.  Where applicable, click on the players name to read more about them or to see their 2010 projections.  Anyway, here’s some 3rd basemen to target for 2010 fantasy baseball:

Ian Stewart – For those drinking every time I mention Stewart, keep your buzz going.

Adrian Beltre – If he stays healthy, he’ll outproduce Aramis Ramirez.

Chris Davis – May not have 3rd base eligibility in your league (11 games last year).  If he does have the eligibility, there’s a chance he could be a bargain basement Mark Reynolds. (Yes, last year I said Mark Reynolds was a bargain basement Chris Davis.  Weird!)

Chase Headley – He’s a career .301/.368/.437 hitter in 492 ABs.  Oh, that’s in away games.  Yeah, thanks, Petco!  So he’s not going to be last round value that turns into a top 20 hitter, but he could sneak into the top 12 third basemen overall.

Kevin Kouzmanoff – He was actually decent away from Petco in his career.  Then again, he’s moving to another pitchers’ park.  Be hard for me to own Kouzmanoff in a 12 team league… In a 14 team league, Kouz wouldn’t be terrible.  I’d expect a line of 60/24/80/.260.  Nothing spectacular, but in a deep enough league there’s value there.  So, maybe mess with The ‘Noff!

Brandon Wood – Honestly, I won’t believe he has the starting job until I see it.  I have the feeling Scioscia’s spinning bottle is going to stop on Aybar or Izturis’s name to start at 3rd base at least 3 times a week.  It’ll be the Figgy Duets.

Adrian Beltre hits the DL with Jockular Sphincteritis as a grounder clipped one of his testicles.  It’s the best contact he’s made all season.  When reached for comment, Beltre said, “Aw, nuts!”  After being badgered, he yelled, “Stop busting my balls!”  Turns out, Beltre doesn’t wear a protective cup.  He claims it’s uncomfortable.  You know what else is uncomfortable?  A bleeding testicle.  Beltre could be out for the season, but he hasn’t really been much use this year so his owners shouldn’t worry.  On a related note, I wonder if he’ll let his teammates sign his cast.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Jonny Gomes – 3 HRs.  Half of me (the Lily Tomlin half) wishes Dusty would start benching Gomes again for no good reason, because I don’t own him anywhere.  – Quote from Grey after he picked up Wladimir Balentien for Thursday’s short schedule day.

Bronson Arroyo – 9 IP, 3 baserunners, 3 Ks.  Arroyo was on my list of pitchers to watch in the 2nd half, and he now has 4 straight solid starts and only one poor start since the All-Star Game.  MLB’s Non-approved supplements + marginal pitchers = fantasy gold.

Jorge Cantu – HR yesterday.  He is so long overdue for a hot streak it’s not even funny.  Man, the hot April guys are the hardest to cut, aren’t they?

Hideki Matsui – 2 HRs yesterday to bring his total to 19.  He just needs about 6 more homers to really confuse people next year when it comes time to draft.  “Hmm… need one more outfielder… Screw it, I’ll grab Matsui.  He’s good for 25 homers.  That’s Jason Kubel-ish!”  Slot Matsui in for two weeks, snooze alarm goes off and drop him.

Jake Peavy – Three shutout innings in his rehab start and two baserunners.  His Sox debut is set for the 28th vs. the Yankees.

Kevin Kouzmanoff – 5-for-5, as he bats .283 away from Petco.  Do you think any Padres hitters have a no trade clause?

Mike Rivera – 2 HRs yesterday.  I saw the homers listed next to M. Rivera and I really thought Mariano hit two homers for the Brewers.  I’d prefer to own Mariano.

Victor Martinez/Ryan Howard – Both stole bases yesterday.  According to Elias Sports Bureau, this was the first time two slow guys stole a base on the same day since Bob Horner and Steve Balboni stole a base in 1985.  Actually, they didn’t say that, but here’s something that was overheard this week at the Elias Sports Bureau compound, “For a record five times this week, Ken, in the mailroom, advised the company to save money by putting the intended address in the return address field and leaving off the postage, so the Post Office ‘returns’ the mail where it’s supposed to go.”

Matt Capps – 2/3 IP, 3 ER.  Kazaam!

Dexter Fowler – 4-for-5 yesterday.  Nice, but it’s not HAGNOF, it’s SAGNOF!

Jason Marquis – 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 Ks.  If you started him here, nay, if you own Marquis, you have cojones.  Speaking of Joneses.

Garrett Jones – 0-for-4, 4 Ks.  Me and Mr. Jones, our thing is no longer going on.

Prince Fielder – 2 HRs.  Okay, but Ryan Howard and Victor Martinez stole bases.

Gil Meche – 5 IP, 4 ER, in his return.  He’ll be covered more in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell.  If you’re a time traveler from the future, don’t spoil it for anyone.

Justin Verlander – 8 IP, 5 baserunners, 8 Ks.  My head is spinning from how many Ks Verlander is racking up?  My head isn’t meant to spin!

Clay Buchholz – 7 IP, 1 ER, 3 Ks.  He has enough major league innings under his belt that I would give him a chance if he were on waivers, but beware the unbalanced schedule.

Ryan Dempster – 7 IP, 6 ER.  I wouldn’t own Dempster.  I said it in the beginning of the year and I haven’t wavered on him once.  (Clever pun point for Grey.)

Shane Victorino – 2-for-5 as he filed charges against the guy who threw beer on him.  I could see if he threw the beer on Josh Hamilton, but c’mon, it’s Wrigley.

Neftali Feliz – Has 13 Ks in 6 innings and only one baserunner (a solo homer to Adam Kennedy).  MR. B’s unite.

Josh Hamilton – 4-for-4, 2 RBIs and 1 Run.  Let’s hope this good day doesn’t send him on a misbehavior spiral.  Hopefully he just gets another tattoo and calls it a day.

Surprise, surprise, Canada’s number one export after Stubby Clapp is hurt, eh?  Erik Bedard takes his inflammed shoulder to the DL.  The Mariners say he’ll be fine to return on June 23rd.  If you were to read between the lines, here’s what you would see, “Please, someone trade us something for this pitcher that cost us Adam Jones, Sherrill and Chris Tillman.  Please!”  Man, Bill Bavasi really shit the Mariners house.  On top of the three guys mentioned, he traded away Shin-Soo Choo, Asdrubal, Carlos Guillen, Rafael Soriano, Matt Thornton and Randy Winn.  The top player he received back was Joe Borchard, who’s currently playing for the Fresno Grizzlies, the Giants minor league affiliate.  Forbes Magazine rated him the worst general manager in all of baseball in 2007.  No idea why Forbes is rating GMs, but that sounds pretty right on.  I’d expect Bedard to come back about two weeks after he’s supposed to then to hiccup and end up back on the DL.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Pedro Martinez – Close to signing with either the Rays or the Cubs.  Pedro on the Rays seems most likely.  I wonder if Fred McGriff and Wade Boggs took him out for an early dinner to convince him Tampa was a great place to end a career.  He’s worth a shot in 12 team leagues and deeper to see if he can recapture some of the glory days of carrying around a midget and dissing Karim Garcia.

Scott Downs – Downs Goes… Okay, I won’t bring it out again.   Early estimates say Downs could be out for 6 weeks.  Frasor’s the guy to go with, hopefully he’s not too persnickety.

Roy Halladay – Heads to the DL with his groin injury.  He says he’ll be back in a week and a half when he’s eligible.  I actually believe him.  Weird!

Ryan Braun – Left the game with back spasms.  Sounds like his usual shizz that sidelines him for a couple of days.

J.J. Hardy – HR yesterday.  Streaky like old lady hair.  Could be hot now.  (Welcome, Googlers, of “streaky” + hot old lady)

Trevor Hoffman – First blown save yesterday and has now given up runs in two of his last three appearances.  Not saying his goose is cooked, but he is old as dirt.  That’s old dirt.  None of that fresh peat stuff.

Javier Vazquez - 8 IP, 4 ER, 7 Ks, 6 baserunners and the loss.  I know, who doesn’t like to win?  But if I could every one of my starters throw that exact line all year, I’d take it and like it.

Adam LaRoche – 2 HRs in 3 days.  May sours, June swoon.

Andrew McCutchen – Aargh, thar she goes as The Dread Pirate went deep for his first homer.

Francisco Liriano – 7 IP, 4 ER vs. the Pirates?  Not sure if you’re going to see the Nats this year, Liriano.  Need to make something work, no?

Jacoby Ellsbury – Hit his third homer yesterday.  Who has more homers, Ellsbury or Pedroia?  I took him in the 2nd round for his position eligibility! No need to explain, random italicized voice.

Jorge Cantu – 2 HRs since the end of April.  Tailspin is not just a great song by The Jayhawks.

Curtis Granderson – 2 HRs yesterday, now has 16 on the year with 11 steals.  You better make it happen, Grandy.  Leyland really wants to work Don Kelly in the lineup.

Jose Lopez - 5 HRs in June.  Glad I gave up on him in May. /sarcasm

David Price – 7 IP, 5 ER.  Okay, but you shouldn’t have started him anyway, but at least there were no walks.  <–Bright side

Troy Tulowitzki – Another homer.  Member when I was telling you to buy Tulo in April?  Yeah, I was about a month early, but he’s here again.  Finalwitzki.

Aubrey Huff – HR yesterday.  If his first name were Jack or Kyle, you’d be excited.  Just hard to get excited about an Aubrey, I know.

Matt Wieters – Hit his first homer.  And you only had to hold him for 65 games.

Nick Markakis – 4-for-4 with his 2nd steal of the season.  I haven’t read this anywhere, but the Orioles must’ve put the child safety locks down on his running game.

John Lannan – 8 1/3 IP, 2 ER.  Not a huge endorsement, but definitely serviceable in 12 team leagues.

Mike MacDougal – Got the save yesterday.  *pulling cord to release streamers and balloons on your head*  Woo-hoo!

Jay Bruce – Obviously he must’ve saw that he was out of a lot of fantasy lineups yesterday so he homered.

Chris Young – Now he’s avoiding the DL.  With the way he’s pitched this year, not sure if that’s good or bad news.

Kevin Kouzmanoff - 3 HRs in the last 5 games.  Will anyone pitch to Adrian?  Maybe not, but you can benefit from that with Kouz.

Denard Span – Heads to the Dizzabled List.  Member about twenty years ago when there was a crazy amount of no-hitters?  Everyone was throwing one, even Bob Milacki got in on the action.  Okay, so in twenty years from now there’s going to be something weird, like all outfielders’ jetpacks are malfunctioning and I’m going to say, “This is weird like twenty years ago when everyone was dizzy.”

Mark Reynolds/Adam Dunn – Both hit their 18th homers yesterday.  Donkey see, donkey do.

Scott Richmond – 8 IP, 1 ER, 11 Ks.  You can mitch and boan about missing this start, but you shouldn’t have started him in Philly anyway.

Scott Rolen – Hit his 4th homer and stole his 3rd base yesterday.  Putting him on pace for a 9/7 year.  Yunel Escobar just laughed derisively at his projections.

Jayson Werth – Hit his tenth homer on Tuesday and yesterday he hit… 11.  C’mon, that wasn’t hard.

John Danks – 7 IP, 1 ER, 9 Ks.  71 strikes out of 99 pitches.  Sweet mother of pearl, take a pitch, Cubbies.  Since the Sox are terrible against righties and the Cubs are equally belchy vs. lefties, I thought this might’ve been a stalemate, but the Cubs’ belchiness won out.

Andres Torres – Please explain to me how he’s a leadoff hitter.  He’s a .270 hitter in 1000+ minor league games.  For those not in the know, 1000 minor league games is about 10 seasons.  Tenacity is not just a city in Jersey!

Brandon Morrow has changed his mind once again, deciding that his decision in the offseason to be a starter after relieving last year was a better idea than his decision in April to return to closing.  It’s already June and it’ll take him at least a month or so to stretch out his arm.  Could he put together a great 10 game stretch to finish the year?  Potentially, but maybe he’ll decide he wants to play shortstop instead.  We’re so tired of him changing his mind that we’re going to pretend like we’re monologue writers for The Tonight Show rather than debate his merits…. You know what Brandon Morrow likes for breakfast?  Waffles.  Why does Brandon Morrow like to play in public fountains?  They let him be both wishy and washy.  Why does Brandon Morrow love the words Aloha and Shalom?  Because he could use them to both start and close a conversation.   Anyway, here’s what else we saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Carlos Quentin – Out until the All-Star Break with a torn tendon.  This news took a dump on my prediction that Quentin would come back strong in another week.  Story of my life.   I try to be optimistic and God farts in my general direction.  In fairness to me, everyone was claiming it was plantar something-or-itis and special shoes like young Forrest Gump wore would help him.  That wasn’t the case so I was dealing with inaccurate information.  A team lying to the media?  What else is new?

Jo-Jo Reyes – Hurt his hamstring covering first base.  Jose Reyes has a torn hamstring.  Anthony Reyes is out for the season with elbow surgery.  Watch out, Dennis Reyes!

Denard Span – Out for tests as he suffers from dizziness.  Votto, cover your mouth! Span might head to the Dizzabled List with Votto.

Francisco Liriano – 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 Ks.  You know that scene in When Harry Met Sally when Meg Ryan says, “I hate you, Harry.  I really hate you.”  Then they kiss.  That’s what a 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 Ks is.  It’s the kind of start that gives you hope for a better tomorrow, but you kinda know that he was facing the A’s and tomorrow’s start isn’t going to be so great.

Jorge Cantu – Stop me if you’ve heard this one before, Cantu out of the game with a dizzy spell.  Maybe the pregame drill of spinning in circles with your head on top of the bat isn’t such a good idea.

Jose Lopez – 3 homers in the last three days.  Okay, so it seems like it took until June for him to start producing.  I’d lose your unproductive MI, if J. Lo’s out there.

Carl Pavano – 4 2/3 IP, 9 ER.  He sucked you in!  Yes, he did!  Well, he kinda sucked me in too.  I mean, I would never pick him up, but I kinda thought there was a corner turned.

Gil Meche – 7 IP, 0 ER, 11 Ks.  Now has given up 3 runs in the last 20 innings.  I could’ve sworn I told everyone to get him about two or three weeks ago…. Let’s see…. Oh, here it is.

John Smoltz – Will make a start on Thursday for the Triple-A PawSawx, then could be ready as soon as next Tuesday vs. the Marlins.

Wandy Rodriguez – 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 Ks.  The Wandwagon rides again!

Geovany Soto – HR yesterday.  I would sell him immediately if anyone’s buying.

John Danks – 7 1/3 IP, 2 ER.  Solid bounce back game after a couple of wonky ones.

Chien-Ming Wang – 2 2/3 IP, 4 ER.  If you can’t let go of Wang at this point, you might have some Freudian thing going on.

Jake Fox – After scorching AAA and fields of Iowa’s prized corn to the tune of .423/17 HR/50 RBIs, Jake Fox got sent back down in favor of Aaron Miles after a measly 12 ABs.  Why?  Because, supposedly, he can’t field.  Or in his words  “I’m short, fat and fighting against a little athleticism issues“.  If I lived in Chicago, I’d print shirts that said “Crazy Short, Fat, and Unathletic….Like a Fox!”  I’d also print “Milton Bradley – Unsafe for Ages 2+” (He’s fine with babies) and “I’ll Fight You Zambrano y Mano”.

Andrew McCutchen – He goes 0-for-5 the day we finally settle on a nickname –  The Dread Pirate.

Juan Pierre - Will be relegated to fourth outfielder status with the return of Manny in July.  Okay, who’s going to register FreeJuanPierre.com?

Clayton Kershaw – Managed to get through ony 2 2/3 innings at home against the Padres.  He was fortunate enough to only have 3 of the 9 baserunners score.  We predict that he has 3 more mixed years, then has 5 amazing years, retires with a sore elbow, and is idolized by a whole generation of Jewish boys.

Kevin Kouzmanoff – 2-for-4, 1 RBI.  I mentioned this two days ago and will probably mention it again in the Buy/Sell tomorrow, but Kouz is picking up baserunners as Gonzalez gets pitched around.

John Lackey – 5 IP, 8 ER.  At Tampa is a tough matchup (especially with The Zo).  I wouldn’t chuck him into a deal just to get rid of him after this start.  He gets the Giants next.  Now if he makes them look good, there might be a problem.

Cole Hamels – 5 IP, 11 hits, 1 K at Metco.  Just when you think he’s back to being a diamond, he gives you a lump of Cole.

Albert Pujols – The Cardinals put up 13 runs today and Pujols is 1-for-4 with 1 Run and no RBIs.  Now THAT’S a Ticker Tease.

Colby Rasmus - Kid Cardinal is now 14-for-31 in June with 5 doubles and 2 HRs.  If he’s swimming in your free agent pool, pick him up.  If that sounded homoerotic, wait to see how we genuflect when he starts stealing bases like the rest of the Cards (Pujols has 8 already?!)

Andrew Bailey – Brought in to a tie game in the top of the 9th and Kazaam!  1 IP and 3 ERs.  Way to lasso the moon, Bailey!  He’s not in danger of losing the closing job but don’t be afraid to move him as he’ll be hard-pressed to maintain his current 1996 Mariano Rivera-like 100 IP / 125 K pace.

Jay Bruce – HR yesterday.  I think he checks to see how many owners in Yahoo have him out their lineup.  When it’s under 40%, he hits a homer.  Just a theory.

Aaron Harang – 7 2/3 IP, 0 ER.  Dusty wanted him to win this game so bad, he used his closer on both sides of an hour and a half rain delay.  When pressed after the game, Dusty explained, “Of course I didn’t want to put Cordero back in but the rules prohibited me from putting Harang back in.” Someone needs to write the book, “Dummyball.”

The Contestants and Producers of MTV’s ‘Real World/Road Rules The Duel 2′ - Bravo on a fantastic season.  If we could figure out a fantasy league around your competition, we would.