Fantasy Baseball Advice

Matt Holliday heads to the DL with a quadriceps injury.  C’mon, Mantle played with no knees for ten years!  Have a scotch and get in the lineup!  John Jay should see time while Holliday recoups.  Worth owning in 12 team leagues and could make a decent sub while Holliday’s out.  That’s not to say he could make a decent hoagie.  Different things.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Kyle McClellan – Out for at least a couple of weeks with a hip flexor strain.  Or it’s hip to be strained, if you’re a kid of the 80′s.

Lance Lynn – Will fill in for McClellan.  Decent K-rate in the minors, a few too many walks at times and barely above average stuff.  But Dave Duncan once coached a pot of a chili to a 12-5 record, so I went out and grabbed Lynn in an NL-Only league.  He could quickly become a decent gamble in mixed leagues, but for now he only has one start guaranteed.

Allen Craig – Didn’t start yesterday, but that didn’t stop him from continuing to hit.  He went 1-for-3 with a home run while batting nearly .500 over the last week.

Hanley Ramirez – Always one to take any opportunity to not hustle, Hanley’s waiting until Friday to decide whether to go on the DL.  If I had to take a guess, I think he will go on the DL.  If you really need speed, I’d grab Bonifacio, who will be playing short in media res.

Aroldis Chapman – Won’t be activated on Friday when eligible.  Dusty said, “He’s got to get things together mentally and emotionally.”  Hey, Aroldis, stop watching Lifetime movies!

Brian Matusz – 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 baserunners, 3 Ks.  He used to be the weak side of the Double Stuff Orioles (with Tillman), but, since his 2nd half ERA last year was 3.63 with a solid K-rate, he’s been the pitcher to own…In deep leagues.  In shallower leagues, he’ll be serviceable at times.  There’s an outside chance for a breakout, but I’d conservatively expect around a 4.00 ERA overall.

Michael Pineda – 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 7 Ks.  I feel like I haven’t talked about Pineda enough.  He has more than a K per inning, a WHIP of 1.00 and an ERA of 2.30.  Let’s see, that’s better than F-Her, Tommy Hanson and Sabathia.  Bingo bango!

Josh Willingham – Yesterday, he hit his third homer in his last six games.  The Hammer in Oakland that you can touch and doesn’t wear pants seventeen sizes too big is crazy hot right now.

Clint Barmes – 2-for-5 and he hit a home run on May 30th.  For him, that’s hot.  Also, I watched him hit yesterday and he looked locked in. Not to mention, I just dropped him in one league so he’s going to spite me.

Brent Lillibridge – 2-for-5 and his 2nd home run in the last five games to go along with a modest five game hitting streak.  Playing every day puts him in over his head like Michael J. Fox in The Secret of My Success, but while he’s hitting, what the hey?

David Ortiz – Hit his 4th home run in the last week and he’s hitting .313 on the year.  Did he get some of Bartolo Colon’s stem cells injected into him too?

Laynce Nix – Hit his 9th home run yesterday.  Yeah, instead of Josh Hamilton in the 2nd round, you could’ve drafted Laynce Nix.  Fantasy Baseball:  If You’re Not Already Prematurely Balding, It’ll Make You Pull Out Your Hair.

Dan Haren – Lower back spasms caused him to fall to his knees in pain.  He screamed, “I feel bad!” then Mark Trumbo put a cape over his shoulders.  Haren said later it felt better and he’s waiting to see how it feels on Thursday before pushing his next start.

Erick Aybar – 3-for-4 and his 14th steal.  Now batting .315 on the year.   He’s a two week hot streak away from being the best shortstop in baseball, even if that’s like being the tallest midget.

Mike Stanton – 3-for-4 with his 12th home run.  The other day someone accused me in the comments of not showing enough love to Stanton.  I found that offensive since I literally drool every time I watch him bat.  On my Trapper Keeper, it says, “I heart Pony Sticks.”  That’s what I secretly call Stanton.  We have pet names.  And I don’t show enough love for him?  Over his first 150 games in the majors, 75/33/88/.258/5.  At the age of 21, that’s a thing of beauty.  If I had to say one player that I think would make the Hall of Fame that has been in the league for only one year, it would be Stanton.  He’ll have 500 homers by the time he’s 33.  Is that enough love?

Javier Vazquez – 6 IP, 4 ER, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Well, he finally started K’ing some hitters, so that’s good.  But four earned in six innings isn’t exactly dying your hair blonde and pretending to be Guy Fieri at a local diner.

Cody Ross – 4-for-5 with a steal.  Now has two homers and is 7 for his last 13.  Does he think it’s the playoffs?

Juan Miranda – 2 for his last 18.  And…scene!

Jhonny Peralta – 2-for-4, after hitting 7 homers and .354 in May.  Okay, pop quiz, hotshot.  Who is hitting for a better average?  Peralta or Miggy?  Yup.

Justin Morneau – 0-for-3.  Hey, it’s good to have you back!

Rajai Davis – 2-for-4, 4 RBIs and his 1st home run.  Now hitting near .350 over the last week and 15 steals on the year.  For a SAGNOF’er, because of his placement in the lineup, he might set the record for ribbies.  Prince Fielder, “Someone say ribbies?!”

Ubaldo Jimenez – 9 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 7 Ks.  2010 called, it wants its start back.

Carlos Santana – Indians scored 13 runs and Santana went 0-for-3.  Ticker tease!  Though, it’s been more like a ticker season.  Comatose Indians Fan, “I’ve been asleep for the last two months but I see the Indians have the best record in baseball?!  Wow, I can only imagine what Carlos Santana, Sizemore and Choo are doing!”  Yeah, not what you think.

Asdrubal Cabrera – 4-for-6, 2 runs, 3 RBIs.  Okay, he is the best shortstop as of right now.  Fair enough.

Shaun Marcum – 7 IP, 2 ER, 5 baserunners, 7 Ks.  Since I’m venting today, someone the other day mentioned how I didn’t say anything when Marcum had a bad last start.  He pitched fine, he grooved one to some rookie that no one thought could hit (Brandon Crawford) and he hit a grand slam.  He threw a bad pitch, he didn’t throw a bad game.

Nyjer Morgan – 2-for-3 in back-to-back games.  He’s really not much better than Gomez, and Gomez isn’t very good, but Morgan is at least hitting.

Vicente Padilla – From the files of, “Yeah, Well, Dur,” Mattingly says Padilla will regain the closer role on Friday when he returns from the DL.

Daniel Murphy – 2-for-4 as he stays sizzling.  At least two hits in the past four games.  He’s not glamorous, but hot schmotatos rarely are.

Kevin Correia – 6 IP, 2 ER, 8 baserunners, 4 Ks with his 8th win.  I’m still waiting for Correia to go south and smell of fermented cabbage.

Mike Leake – 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 baserunners, 3 Ks.  He’s a deep league add at this point since he may not stay in the rotation for long.

Jay Bruce – Hit his 17th home run.  Or one home run for every baby born in the Ohio area in the last month named Bruce.  Broose counts as well.

Felipe Paulino – 5 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 4 Ks.  I do love his Ks, but…must…resist…urge…to…pick…him….up.  He’s just too inconsistent.

Billy Butler – Hit his 4th home run, a game winner.  After he crossed home, someone threw beads at him.

Daisuke Matsuzaka – Headed for Tommy John surgery.  In other words, Dice-K’s elbow rolled craps.  I always thought it was gonna be “Dice” Clay who’d need Tommy John surgery because of his unorthodox smoking form.  Dice-K’s ulnar collateral ligament blew — it needed the money — oh!

Week 6 is here, subtle rejoice. Some top minor league guys are getting the call, the closer situations on some teams are still an enigma wrapped in a TLR sandwich and some elite pitching has returned. Now is the time to start gambling on guys that have either underperformed or you have a hunch about. Hunches win fantasy leagues. After all, this is just like playing the lottery, although I have never seen the lotto girl pull an oblique calling the winning numbers. So good luck on all of this week’s endeavors.  Here are the pitching options for the week to come. (Please keep in mind that pitchers and match-ups change.)

ONE START OPTIONS

5/10
Homer Bailey @Hou – Myers
Rick Porcello @Min – Blackburn
Joel Pineiro vs. CHW – Peavy

5/11
Scott Baker vs. Det – Coke
Brandon Beachy vs. Was – Lannan

5/12
Jon Garland @ Pit – Morton
Ivan Nova vs. KC – O’Sullivan

5/13
Gavin Floyd vs. Oak – McCarthy
Wade Davis vs. Bal – Guthrie

Travis Wood (@Hou vs. A. Rodriguez, StL vs. Carpenter) Shows glimpses, then gets pummeled. Gets two starts unless Dusty out smarts us all and uses 6 starters. God forbid he gets out-crazyed by Ozzie.

Jason Marquis (@Atl vs. Hanson, Fla vs. Vazquez) Last start showed the worst case scenario. Is he as good as his first 5 starts? Hell to the no. When healthy he is an innings eater and those, from what I hear, are delicious.

Josh Tomlin (TB vs. Niemann, Sea vs. Pineda) I will lay it out for you nice and simple, he is 3-0 at home. I still think it’s a magic show getting it done. Pitching a run and a half better than his xFIP.

Kevin Correia (LA vs. Lilly, @Mil vs. Greinke) Anyone else notice that the Buccos are pushing .500? 17 wins all of last year on the road, 11 already this year, Oh, and guess what, Correia is 5-0 on the road.

Jake Arrieta (Sea vs. Pineda, @ TB vs. Price) ERA 1.50 lower on the road and lefties are hitting a robust .187, “It’s murda.” No, it isn’t. It is batting average against, but thanks for stopping by JA.

Vance Worley/Joe Blanton (@Fla vs. Vazquez, @Atl vs. Hanson) Mr. Blanton, that is the entrance; you are required to use the exit. Nothing from Worley’s minor league numbers say he should be this awesome. Maybe the four aces are rubbing off on him. Blanton is scheduled to throw a bullpen on Saturday so either starter may get the nod or each may get one, sharing is caring I guess.

Chris Capuano (@Col vs. Chacin, @Hou vs. A. Rodriguez) Watched entire start against SF, a better hitting team would have made it ugly. Seems very predictable. Decent lone star start, in the mountains not so much. Is a left handed Whippopotamus.

Freddy Garcia (KC vs. Davies, Bos vs. Beckett) Played Joe the policeman, on the “What’s goin’ down” episode of That’s My Mama. NY lineup gives anyone a little glimmer, hangs in the same “bloat” as Capuano.

Ted Lilly (@Pit vs. Correia, Ari vs. Collmenter) Lots of talk about him, being added/dropped. He is a 12 win 4 ERA 1.3 WHIP pitcher. To me that spells a perfect number 5 starter in any fantasy league. Ted Lilly rant over, return to your regular scheduled programming.

Jason Hammel (NYM vs. Pelfrey, SD vs. Latos) My secret inside voice tells me he is the best pitcher on the Rox right now, than Chacin’s inside voice texts mine and tells it like it really is. ERA is higher at home, lefties hitting around a deuce.

In honor of Cinco de Mayo, I won’t mention it again because I don’t know what it means other than most bars have deals on tequila shots.  What I will talk about is the pitchers that are getting lucky thus far according to their xFIP.  If you don’t know what the xFIP I’m talking about.  Read the following:  xFIP — stands for Expected Fielding Independent Pitching.  It’s basically ERA without those pesky fielders helping or hurting you.  It’s a pure ERA.  It’s like when you go to the Supercuts and then you don’t want to shower for like 2 weeks because you’ll never get your hair styled again like Jeffrey does it.  It’s your hair right after Jeffrey styles it and before you wash it.  That’s xFIP.  Okay, so let’s take a Exhibit A pitcher, who has an ERA of 2.75, but his xFIP is a 6.75.  A -4.00 difference.  That means he’s been very lucky and there’s a good chance his ERA is going to go way up.  So here’s a list of pitchers with the biggest difference between their actual ERAs and their xFIPs for the first month or so of the fantasy baseball season. (If your guy’s on the list, it’s not a great sign.)

Dustin Moseley – -2.21.  I’d still continue to throw him in Petco-sponsored games, but I’d be careful about his away games.  At some point, he’s gonna look like Dustin Diamond.

Alexi Ogando – -1.89.  “His stuff is soooooo nasty!”  That’s you.  Soooooo, why is his K-rate soooooo whatever?  Ogando’s men LOB% is off the charts silly and his BABIP is abnormal like those cylinder hamburgers that rotate at 7-11.

Josh Tomlin – -1.57.  It is a total shocker to see Lily’s kid on this list of the luckiest pitchers.  Only because I’m surprised I even bothered mentioning him.

Zach Britton – -1.53.  Not surprising to me since he doesn’t strikeout anyone (4.78 K/9).  Throw in a terrible division and he’s going to hit the roofie skids at some point.  Caveat emptor for our Latin friends.

Kevin Correia – -1.45.  Wait, Correia actually sucks?  C’mon!  Get outta town, Grey!

Justin Masterson – -1.42.  Well, you knew his ERA wouldn’t stay in the low 2′s, at least you should’ve known.  But since his xFIP is 3.67, he could be usable going forward.  At least that’s what I want to tell myself since we actually own him in a league.

Tom Gorzelanny – -1.38.  To nerdify Shakira, his BABIPs lie, which has his WHIP at a redonkulous level.

Jeremy Guthrie – -1.29.  This post is kinda like shooting fish in a barrel.  Of course, Guthrie isn’t a 3.00 ERA pitcher.  Sorry to his fantasy owners and family.

Randy Wolf – -1.23. Since Wolf’s xFIP is only 3.62, I wouldn’t be as concerned.  If you get a 3.62 from Wolf, you’d take that all day long and twice on Muesday.

Trevor Cahill – -1.23.  Since I don’t own him anywhere, I look forward to the team from White-Out dropping correction fluid all over his stats.

Someone defrost Ted Williams’ head, Jed Lowrie is hitting .516.  If Mickey Rooney were playing the part of Dice-K, he’d say Jed is so Lovrie.  That’s if we can pull Rooney away from pooping in your neighbor’s chimney.  Right now, Lowrie is seasoning up fantasy steaks something delicious, but can this continue?  No, of course not.  Can he hit .280 with 10 homers?  Sure.  Can he get to 15 homers?  Is the moon made of green cheese? (Actually, it is.)  Lowrie has a heart three sizes too big for his body and a thermos filled with spunk.  But spunk’s a category in your league?  Some would find that hard to swallow.  He has little to no speed and, if he slumps for a second, Marco…Scutaro could go back to popping up in the most unlikely places.  But, hey, it’s not like you need much.  Lowrie could be a top ten shortstop with only one good month of stats.  I’d absolutely pick him up but don’t drop a proven commodity.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Daisuke Matsuzaka – 7 IP, 0 ER, 2 baserunners (1 Hit), 3 Ks.  That’s nice, I’m not buying.  If you go with him, you’re rolling the Dice, K?

Jacoby Ellsbury – Hit his 4th homer yesterday as he and A-Gon go on casting calls for the remake to Vice Versa.

Jerry Sands – Called up by the Dodgers because Mattingly used to have a dope ‘stache and he loves crazy women.  Okay, those aren’t related, but I like to think they are in my effort to emulate Mattingly.  Sands looks like another Razzball favorite, the mollywhopping, pony stick-galloping, Mike Stanton.  Just not quite as much power.  Let’s say Mike Stanton Jr.  Last year, Sands had 17 homers in Double-A in half a year (68 games).  This year in Triple-A, he had 5 homers in 10 games.  That’s a yes, please and thank you.  For this year, I’d give Sands 20 homers, .250 average and 5 steals.  There’s upside, obviously, so I picked him up everywhere I could.  (Yes, I’m looking with my stink eye towards Yahoo for not having him in their player universe.  Can they just have everyone in the minors like CBS or only the players on the 40 man roster?  Because this willy-nilly, no one has any idea who is actually in the player universe is lamer than dog balls.)

Jason Heyward – Hitting 2nd with McLouth in the lineup.  You should’ve took the under.

Rick Ankiel – Supposedly, the Nats aren’t happy with Ankiel’s production.  No way!  C’mon, really?  Wow, if they would’ve just read Razzball in March, I would’ve told them to start the season with Roger Bernandina.  Keep your eye on Roger, roger?

Travis Wood – 3 1/3 IP, 6 ER, 9 baserunners, 3 Ks and three first inning runs.  He must be hanging out with Crazy Edinson.

Aroldis Chapman – Returned and threw over 100 MPH.  “Geez, Pa, that’s fast.”  That’s what Steve Pearce said to Lyle Overbay.

Mike Leake – Arrested for stealing $60 worth of t-shirts from Macy’s.  The pressure to keep up with Jay Bruce’s Ed Hardy collection is just too intense.  If a cop sees you take a leak, it’s public indecency.  So what’s it called when Leake takes something.

Tyson Ross – Going from Macy’s to Ross, Tyson Ross would be my choice to take Braden’s next scheduled start on Friday in Safeco.  Ross had a solid spring and almost made the rotation.  So far in Oakland, he has a 10+ K/9, but, as I tell my girlfriends, beware the small sample size.  I like him for a spot start on Friday, if he gets it, then we’d have to take it from there.

Cody Ross – Sticking with the bargain basement Ross theme, Bochy said Belt could be sent down as soon as Tuesday, which is today on your Mayan calendars.  “Don’t stare into the day Wednesday!”  That’s what it says on my Mayan calendar.

Kevin Correia – 9 IP, 2 ER, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Yeah, should’ve drafted him instead F-Her.  Nice!

Francisco Liriano – 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 10 baserunners, 2 Ks.  Baby steps, Bob, baby steps.

Adam Jones – 1-for-4, 3rd homer.  There was only one hitter in the O’s lineup hitting over .250.  That’s Brian Roberts at .266.  Member when they were 6-1 to start the year?  They haven’t won since.  Shiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiit!

Sam Fuld – 4-for-4, hitting .396 on the year.

Justin Morneau – Out again with the flu.  Instead of Theraflu, Canadians take Cariflu which is 50% medicine, 50% caribou semen.

We’re going streaming! No? Okay, it’s just me then. As I was doing the research for this week, two things happened. One, I threw up at the possibility of adding any of these lower end guys. Secondly, I kept thinking that maybe I am losing touch with the fantasy world. Has one week really shifted to a baseball tangent of have-nots having relevant value. I’m befuddled at the lack of value for this week’s streaming party. With all the lower end pitching that is out there we get 2 start games from possibly the worst 4 teams in baseball (with their respective options for fantasy goodies). I am upset and demand a pamphlet or at least a seminar on how this happened. This week may be a decent week for you to string along 2 or 3 separate one start pitchers instead. I have included a small list of them as well for your viewing enjoyment. So as you read this, approach with caution and just be confident of the fact that better times are coming for two start pitchers. Good luck. (Please be aware that pitchers and match ups change)

One Start options:
Phil Coke – @Sea vs. Fister 4/19
Esmil Rogers – SF vs. Sanchez4/19
R.A. Dickey – Hou vs. Norris 4/20
Jon Garland – Atl vs. Lowe 4/20
Charlie Morton – @Fla vs. Nolasco 4/20
Josh Tomlin – @KC vs. O’Sullivan 4/21
Kyle Lohse – Was vs. Gorzellany 4/21
Derek Holland – KC vs. Francis 4/22
Clayton Richard – Phi vs. Blanton 4/22

Kevin Correia (@Cin-Wood, Was- Hernandez) – Looked good for 5 innings in last start, unfortunately it isn‘t tee-ball. Lack of K’s is unappealing. Staff aces on mediocre teams get no love.

Jake Westbrook (Was-Lannan, Cin-Lecure) – By name he looks awesome this week. By performance, one would think Duncan hates his guts. Let’s be honest he is a lunch pail ground ball pitcher — no more, no less.

Sam LeCure (Ari-Galarraga, @STL-Westbrook) – 2nd start may be in question with DL returnees Bailey and Cueto. Does a really great Robert Smith impression for his Quebec-based cover band. Seems destined to be in and out of rotation all year.

John Lannan (@STL-Westbrook, @Pit-Maholm) – Decent career numbers against the ‘Lou. Better match-ups this week than the last 2, Nats need to start hitting, starting to be referenced with the Mariners.

Brandon Beachy (@LA-Kuroda, @SF-Lincecum) – Ugh and yuck. Doesn’t seem to be getting any easier for the sleeper. 2 rough road starts.

Jason Vargas (Det-Scherzer, Oak-Anderson) – One bad start in between 2 decent. Can’t trust a team that doesn’t score, plain and simple.

Dustin Moseley (@CHC-TBD, Phi-Lee) – Only given up 4 ER all year in 3 decent starts. Hodgepadre indeed.

Bruce Chen (Cle-Carrasco, @Tex-Holland) – Last 10 starts dating back to last year, 7-1 with a 3.45 ERA. I can’t make stuff up like that.

Fausto Carmona (@KC-Davies, @Min-Liriano) – Unreliable, best word I can think of. Based on match-ups though it makes sense. Minny has 3, count them 3 HR’s all year. The Indians are getting it done though, don’t have the talent to sustain but will be a headache for awhile.

Jonathon Niese (Hou-Rodriquez, Ari-Galarraga) – Last 2 starts not so hot, next 2 pale in comparison by offensive measures. Two starts at Metco, a resounding… maybe. The Wandwagon has lost its wheels and is now a sled and ‘Almost Perfect’ has been anything but.