Fantasy Baseball Advice

If the last week of the baseball season is the final leg, we’re in the toe portion of the fantasy baseball season.  In roto, you’re throwing everyone you need to if you’re behind in your starts/innings limit.  For instance, yesterday I started eight guys in one league.  Were they all gems?  Aw, heck no.  If you have starts/innings to spare and you need the Ks/Wins, you have to throw people you wouldn’t normally throw.  Last week’s borderline starters post netted a 3.50 ERA, 46 Ks, 6 Wins in 72 innings.  Yeah, that’s pretty good.  Maybe I won’t draft any starters next year and just stream.  Anyway, here’s some borderline starters I might gamble on depending on your situation this week in fantasy baseball:

Monday, September 28th

Rick Porcello – There’s no one I really like on Monday.  Porcello’s the only one I can even think I’d take a chance on and it would have to be a very deep league.

Tuesday, September 29th

Brian Duensing – In 14 2/3 innings, he has a .61 vs. the Tigers.  Coincidentally, that’s who he’s facing on Tuesday.

Trevor Cahill – Has been very strong vs. the West and, in particular, the Mariners.

Jonathan Sanchez – Last week I pointed that he was going to face the Diamondbacks and he’d strike out a lot of them.  He did both.  This week, more of the same.

Wednesday, September 30th

Bronson Arroyo – I probably should’ve mentioned this three weeks ago, but I’ve been judging “borderline” by ESPN ownership numbers.  30% owned and under gets the pitcher listed.  Bronson Arroyo really shouldn’t be owned in only 28.7% of leagues.

Vicente Padilla – Last week I said I’d never recommend him again.  Well, he’s in Petco and I lied.

Thursday, October 1st

Tom Gorzelanny – He falls into the Porcello category of guys I wouldn’t start outside of very deep leagues.  Really is only listed because it’s a short schedule day.

Paul Maholm – He’s also in the Gorzelanny and Porcello category.  Deep leagues only.

Brett Anderson – Also in the Gorzelanny/Porcello/Maholm category.

Friday, October 2nd

Randy Wells – He’s been real iffy lately, but this is a decent start to take a risk on him.

Clayton Richard – HodgePadre.

Saturday, October 3rd

Ryan Rowland-Smith – His last start vs. the Blue Jays wasn’t a thing of beauty but two of those runs he gave up were courtesy of The Pitcher Laureate, Miguel Batista.  (BTW, in that article, Batista compares himself to Brian Benben from Dream On.  And not because he often finds himself in comedic situations that also provide their fair share of T & A.)

Kevin Correia – He actually has been very solid even away from Petco, but enough of that now, he’s home vs. the Giants.

Sunday, October 4th

Homer Bailey – Nothing like ending the season and relying on Homer Bailey.

Chris Narveson – This is an iffy recommendation.  If the Cardinals bench their A lineup (Holliday and Pujols) on the final day, I’d start Narveson.  So, game time decision.

Edward Mujica – If the Padres are home, I’m more than likely buying.

Jonathan Sanchez – Only thing better than pitching at Petco is getting to face the Padres.

Last week’s borderline starters post netted a 3.22 ERA if you started Justin Masterson, even though I said I wouldn’t start him unless your situation was dire.  So if you didn’t start him, you had a 2.71 ERA from the guys I pointed out last week.  You also had 47 Ks in 63 innings with 4 Wins.  And Harrison Ford’s a quarter Jewish.  Not too shabby.  Anyway, here’s some borderline starters I might gamble on depending on your situation this week in fantasy baseball:

Monday, September 21st

Wade LeBlanc – He gets the Pirates.  Do I have to say more?  No, I really don’t.

Daniel McCutchen – If you throw LeBlanc and McCutchen, you can be the first person to ever watch 6 innings of a Padres/Pirate game.

Tuesday, September 22nd

Hiroki Kuroda – Hasn’t thrown a bad start in two months and gets the Nats.  It’s percentages, ya’ll.

Zach Duke – In 20 innings this year, Duke has a 2.70 ERA vs. the Little Red Machine That Dusty’s Run Off The Tracks.

Trevor Cahill – Going against the A’s hasn’t worked out for me at all.  So I’m sure going with them won’t either.

Wednesday, September 23rd

Jonathan Sanchez – Has a 1.71 ERA vs. the Diamondbacks.  He Ks people, Diamondbacks like to swing.  Do the math!

Thursday, September 24th

Homer Bailey – Borderline Starters aka Pitchers Going Against the Pirates.

Vicente Padilla – He wasn’t exactly lights out when I suggested him last week, but he gets the Nationals this time.  Decent shot at a win, if nothing else.

Friday, September 25th

Bronson Arroyo – Has a 2.42 Post-All-Star Break ERA.  Should’ve really been owned for the last three months.

Kevin Correia – Good for at least Ks vs. the Diamondbacks.  Might squeeze out a Win.

Saturday, September 26th

Barry Zito – There’s absolutely no matchups I’d go near on 95% of my teams for Saturday the 26th.  If I were really desperate, I’d try Zito, i.e., throw him at your own risk.

Sunday, September 27th

Ryan Rowland-Smith – Really, he should just be owned at this point.

Hiroki Kuroda – He gets the Pirates.  BTW, why are the Nats and the Pirates playing the Dodgers at the end of September?  Who did Alyssa Milano have to “talk” to to “work” that “out”?

The Flying Molina Brother, who likes his seconds, is dealing with a sore quad (only one, not four – weird!).  So the Giants called up Buster Posey yesterday.  Well, ain’t that a kick in the shin pads?  He wasn’t supposed to get the call and I don’t think he sees much time this year to make a difference in one year leagues.  It’s keepers where you wanna grab him immediately.  Sabean’s already said Fat Molina is on his way out of The Bay after this season.  Buster Posey should get every opportunity to win the job in spring training of 2010.  I wouldn’t expect anything, but he’s capable of 14 homers and a .300 average if he gets the job from jump street.  In the non-perverse way, I’ll touch on him many more times during the offseason.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Wade Davis – Being called up to start Sunday vs. the Yanks. Davis is a decent flier for AL-Only leagues and deep mixed ones.  I wouldn’t expect more than a 4.50 ERA and 7 K/9 the rest of the way, and vs. the Yanks isn’t a great one to begin with.  Literally.  He was broken down in detail here. –> Wade Davis Fantasy <– There

Jake Peavy – Chances of him pitching this year have gone from slim to anorexic.

Michael Young – Out at least two weeks.  I’d drop him in leagues where space is limited and you can’t fit any more overhead, useless baggage.

Joe Nathan – 2/3 IP, 4 ER as Kevin Gregg chloroformed Nathan pre-game and did the ol’ switcheroo.

Brian Duensing – 7 IP, 0 ER, 7 Ks.  Scroll down to yesterday’s roundup and read what I wrote about Manship.  Same applies.  Go ahead, scroll.  Just moving your eyes down isn’t going to work.  You need to scroll.  Oh, forget it.

Gordon Beckham – HR yesterday.  Now has back-to-back games with homers.  Also, he hasn’t recorded more than two hits in a game in two weeks.  Adam Dunn throws him his jersey, “I like your style, kid.”

Drew Stubbs – HR yesterday.  This is actually kinda comical.  Not a funny comical, but more like “This is worse than watching Eyes Wide Shut on basic cable” painfully comical.  I grabbed Stubbs in leagues where I don’t need power but need steals.  He’s hit three homers in the last four games.  It’s like ten thousand spoons and all you need is a knife.

Carlos Marmol – No Cuddle Boy here as he continues to convert the saves he’s getting.

Adam Jones – Close the curtains on the hot box, Jones looks like he’s done for the season.  Grab Felix Pie! (<–last reminder until tomorrow)

Kevin Correia – 7 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 5 Ks.  In Petco vs. the Nats B lineup.  What does a Nats B lineup consist of, you ask.  Ryan Zimmerman defected in his pants and Riggleman hung it up as his lineup card.  Pete Orr hit 5th (.245 in Triple-A) and Justin Maxwell (.242 in Triple-A), Willie Harris (.222 in majors) and Jorge Padilla (Latin 30) in the outfield.   Razztastic!

Jim Johnson – Zero innings, 5 ER.  Kazaam!

Nolan Reimold – 5 for his last 7 with a homer yesterday.  I’m watching to see if he gets hot, so you don’t have to.  You’re welcome.

Rick Porcello – 7 IP, 2 ER in just 80 pitches.  Tigers are watching his innings and he can/should be shutdown any day now.

Mariano Rivera – Day-to-day with a strained groin.  That was my story from ages 13-19.

Josh Hamilton – Has dealt with back pain before and yesterday he had a relapse.  What, bad choice of words?  He says he’ll return on Friday.

Brad Penny – 8 IP, 0 ER.  After the game, he was seen talking to Cliff Lee.  They high-fived, saying, “NL!”

Josh Beckett – 6 IP, 4 ER, 9 Ks.  Actually, not a terrible start.  Sure, you expect more from Beckett, but I’d take 9 Ks in 6 innings every day of the week and twice of Muesday.

Carl Crawford – HR yesterday.  Hitting .311, 13 homers and 55 steals.  Great, terrific, wonderful!  I’ll go into it more in the offseason, but I think he’s going to be overvalued in 2010.

Ubaldo Jimenez – 8 IP, 2 ER.  Oh, and he’s a Cy Young contender.  Zoinks!

Franklin Morales/Huston Street/Rafael Betancourt – Morales notched the save for the Rockies.  Was just a case of Street being used too much…. For the last five months.  Huston Street has bicep(s) tendinitis.  UPDATE:  Rockies are saying Morales will be the closer.

Felix Hernandez – 8 IP, 0 ER, 6 Ks vs. the Angels.  F-Her strong, but not in the Big A.

Scott Kazmir – 6 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 8 Ks.  If you can’t get traded to the NL, the AL West isn’t a terrible consolation.

Garrett Jones – Another homer yesterday for Robot Jones.  Compliments of frequent commenter, Mgeoffriau, “In honor of Isaac Asimov, Will Smith, and Tom Brady’s ex, I present the 3 Laws of Robot Jones:

(1) Robot Jones must always hit home runs.
(2) Robot Jones must always steal more bases than expected.
(3) Robot Jones must always talk in a creepifying, flat tone that reminds everyone that you can’t trust a robot.

The Tigers added Aubrey Huff to complement Jim Leyland’s puff.  When the Detroit Free Press hit the streets to find out what Tigers fans thought of this trade, they were met by mixed reactions.  Some fans asked for change, others shot at them. Huff should be added to the 1st base/DH mix with Carlos Guillen heading out to left field.  Huff’s value could go up a bit, but he needs to hit for him to have any value.  Best case scenario, he gets 8 homers over the next month and hits .330. Remember, that’s best, not realistic.  Marcus Thames’s value is hurt the most with the trade, but Thames is an estuary so he knows the importance of trading.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Nate McLouth – Was nursing a hamstring injury, then he started Saturday and aggravated it.  So now he heads to the DL for two weeks.  Terrific.  I’m so glad I own this schmohawk.  Can’t ya tell?  Aren’t I oozing with McLove?  He’s been a total waste for about two months now, but at least he was leading off and getting some Runs.  Now the only runs he’ll be getting are from Mexican food.  I officially hate McLousy.

Mark Reynolds – HR yesterday as he tied Pujols for the major league lead in homers for a millisecond until Pujols took the lead back.  Do people dare to draft Reynolds before David Wright next year?  I wouldn’t, but I’m beginning to think some will.

Max Scherzer – 5 IP, 9 runs, but only 3 were earned.  Ticker shock!

Tommy Hanson – 6 IP, 2 ER, 7 Ks.  I mentioned Hanson yesterday in the rookie pitchers who might get shutdown thingamaboob.

Vladimir Guerrero – 2 HRs yesterday with 5 RBIs.  A fifth of his homers in one game.  Guess that stops his owners from taking a fifth of anything.

Ervin Santana – 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 Ks.  As I said after his last start (I think it was last start, I write a lot of these), I like Ervin to a certain respect now.  He’s probably owned in your league because of his name, but if he’s not, he should be.

Nick Markakis – I am Sparkakis!

Joe Martinez – 5 IP, 1 ER.  Start everyone against the Mets!!!  Three exclamation marks for emphasis.

Justin Morneau – Left the game with dizziness.  No word on whether he’ll need a trip to the Dizzabled List.

Francisco Liriano – 2 IP, 7 ER.  Member that corner he turned last week?  Yeah, he turned the other corner and kicked your dog.

Tommy Hunter – 5 2/3 IP, 4 ER.  Much closer to the kind of games I expect to see from Tommy Hunter.  Still wouldn’t own him.  Maybe next year.  Later, Tommy Hunter, if that’s your real name.

Rajai Davis – You can call him Ray.  You could call him Jai.  You could him RJ.  Just say natural.  Either way, he just stole another base.  SAGNOF!

Kevin Correia – 6 IP, 0 ER and a No Decision.  I love me my HodgePadres, but this might be why I’m struggling for Wins in every league.

Ted Lilly – 6 IP, 5 baserunners, 4 Ks vs. Padres.  Was a gimme first start back, but that’s all right, they still count.

Matt Holliday – Fouled a ball off his toe in the ninth inning.  Still ran hard to first on the next swing, but then left the game.  I’m gonna guess they’re going to call this day-to-day.  (BTW, isn’t it weird how week-to-week is worse than day-to-day, but minute-to-minute is worse too?)

Stephen Strasburg – Signed with the Nats for over $15 million.  I’d pay him in pennies.  No rolls either.  Make that Viennese putz roll them himself.  I don’t think we see Strasburg this year and if we do, he’s not going to give you much of anything in one year leagues.

Ryan Doumit – 0-for-5, batting .222 on the year.  I’m all for the Ron Popeil, “Set It and Forget It” method of dealing with catchers, but Doumit’s been awful.

Garrett Jones – 2-for-4 with a HR yesterday.  We all want something beautiful.  Man, I wish Garrett Jones was beautiful, but he’s still batting .226 vs lefties.

Lastings Milledge – 2-for-4, and a steal.  I think he stole second base off the Pirates reliever, Jesus Colome, simply to clarify what he meant in his Karaoke Revolution-aided, Cristal-fueled song, “Going To Second On Jesus Colome.”

I went over 13 pitchers in May that should be better according to their FIP.  Some of those pitchers on the list who weren’t doing great that have since turned it around are Nolasco, Floyd, Verlander, Lincecum, Lester, Beckett, Javier Vazquez and Ubaldo.  8 of 13.  Two other pitchers were Randy Johnson and Gil Meche.  So they were injured and haven’t hurt any teams in a while.  So 8 of 11 healthy pitchers.  One of the missing pitchers is Scott Olsen.  Next to his name, I wrote, “Blech.”  So I think it was clear I wasn’t telling you to go grab him.  So that’s 8 of 10.  Another pitcher was Pavano.  Next to his name I said, “Hmm… Maybe I should’ve ignored some of these schmohawks.”  Obviously not an endorsement.  That’s 8 of 9.  The last pitcher was Andy Sonnanstine.  I’m never been a fan of his and he’s been in the minors since June, so he didn’t hurt you really either.  So that’s 8 for 8 in Grey Math.  Eat it, snitches!  Anyway, here’s a list of pitchers with the biggest difference between their actual ERAs and their FIPs. (If your guy is on the list, it’s a good sign.  Some would even say you could go out and trade for some of these guys, you educated fantasy baseball owner you!)

Ricky Nolasco – 1.66 difference.  Yup, he’s going to continue to be better.

Carl Pavano – 1.12.  Still ignore.

Paul Maholm – 1.11.  Don’t you love when a plan doesn’t come together.  Maholm should be better, but that doesn’t mean I’d rush out to own him.  He’s nothing but match-up material.

Jorge de la Rosa – .90.  I do own him in a 12 team league and I’d start him every time out in away games and play match-ups at home.  BTW, he had a 2.50 ERA in July.  That included 5 home games and only one away game.

Cole Hamels – .87. Having some shizzy luck when it comes to men LOB and BABIP.  The bigger problem is I think the Phils abused his arm so badly in 2008 that he/they are paying for it now.

Jon Lester – .75.  Gotta love when a pitcher’s below a 4 ERA and still supposed to be better.

Francisco Liriano – .75.  Hmph. Well, what do we do with that?  The Twins seem like they’re at the point where they don’t want to bother with Liriano anymore.  I’m definitely not bothering with Liriano.  If I want an ulcer, I’ll snoop through my girlfriend’s photo albums of old boyfriends.

Kevin Correia – .75.  Hey, I think this is our first HodgePadre to ever appear on a FIP post.  Johnny Olson tell ‘em what he’s won…  A brand new washer and dryer!