Fantasy Baseball Advice

Bryce Harper and Mike Trout were called up by their respective clubs this weekend.  When Bryce left Syracuse for his first major league game, the grand opening of the “Eye Black Isn’t Just For The Ultimate Warrior And Owls” store turned into a Going Out of Business sale.  When Mike Trout left Salt Lake for the Angels, Bobby Abreu’s three year Going Out of Business sale came to an abrupt end.  Bobby, “I still have some seven-pitch walks to sell!”  With Trout and Harper called up, the minor leagues were closed.   There’s no more minor leagues.  In his major league debut, Harper looked like all that and a bag of douche.  Who over the age of twelve flips their helmet off when they’re running?  Wait, is he over the age of twelve?  Definitely more auspicious of a debut than Trout’s (or is that inauspicious?).  (NSFWUYWAAPPH (Not Safe For Work Unless You Work At A Porn Production House):  In case you didn’t see it, Harper roped a double to deep center while someone behind home plate dropped their pants.  (Here’s Bryce Harper’s first major league hit in motion.)  I can’t wait to go to Cooperstown in 25 years and see Bryce Harper’s 1st major league hit.   The curator showing a group of middle school kids, “Here’s the film of Babe Ruth calling his shot and here’s Bryce Harper with a booty call.”  In 50 years, Bryce Harper showing his granddaughter, “There’s your PawPaw getting his first major league hit.”  “PawPaw, are you the one with your ass showing?”  “No, sweetheart, that’s how fans celebrated baseball players when I played.  A great time to be alive.”)  Mike Trout, nor the fans behind him, flashed anything.  Whatevs, I like him better for this year.   I went over my Mike Trout fantasy back in November and it mostly still applies.  Only thing I’d change is how many ABs I gave him there.  There I gave him 55/7/30/.270/20 in 300 ABs.  Give him 400 ABs and his stats move to 70/10/40/.275/25.  Basically what you were hoping to get from Bourjos.  That’s giddy up, the un-sarcastic  excitement.  As for Bryce Harper, I like him a lot and he’s worth grabbing.  But he’s also worth trading if you can in redraft leagues.  He hasn’t really pounded minor league pitching since last July.  There were guys on his own minor league roster that were out-performing him.  He’s going to be a great one; I’ll give him that.  I just don’t think once Morse and/or Zimmerman return he’s even going to stay in the majors.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:

Scott Downs – The Sciosciapath replaced Walden after one blown save.  If only he was as reactionary with over 35-year-old outfielders.  Here’s a scenario:  Downs gets five straight saves and Walden scuffles in a set-up role because his confidence is fractured after being removed from the closer role that quickly.  In that scenario, Downs stays the closer for a few months, maybe the rest of the season.  Another scenario:  Downs blows a game and Walden’s back in there after a week.  More succinctly, you need to hold both guys.  Even more succinctly, hold both.  Personally, I don’t think Sciosciapath’s move is a long-term cure for Scott Downs’ Syndrome.

Peter Bourjos – Didn’t play for the Angels yesterday because of Mike Trout.  Bourjos also didn’t play on my fantasy team, because I cut him immediately when I saw he was losing time to Trout.  Later, schmohawk!  Thanks for the month of the .167 average and 1 homer and 1 steal!   Wish I would’ve known your last name was French for “Bore the crap of youse.”

Albert Pujols – For the first time in his career, Pujols is one day away from having his first homerless month.  Like how Roger Maris’s family followed around McGwire in ’98, Juan Pierre’s family will be following around Pujols.

Kyle Lohse – 6 IP, 3 ER, 10 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Easily his worst start of the year.  Uh-oh, Mr. April may be done.  Hehe.  That’s punny!

Josh Hamilton – Left yesterday’s game with a stiff back, which is less embarrassing than a stiff front.

Tim Hudson – 5 IP, 2 ER, 8 baserunners, 6 Ks vs. the Pirates.  Not a tough matchup, but I wouldn’t mind Hudson as a 5th fantasy starter on a team.  He usually keeps his ratios in check and does decent with Ks — or simply oK.

Jay Bruce – 4 homers in 4 straight games with yesterday’s being a slam & legs.  BRUUUUUUU + UUUUUUUUUUU + UUUUUUUUUUU = Excitement for Red Square.  Damn, was supposed to equal excitement for Reds outfielder, Jay Bruce.  Think I forgot to carry a U.

Mat Latos – 6 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 10 baserunners (0 Walks), 4 Ks vs. the Asstros.  Latos seems like a guy who asks you at the bar, “Did you say something to me?” like he’s picking a fight even if you didn’t say anything to him.  Not much to like about his ERA so far either (5.97).  I still want to remain patient with him.  He will get better.

Drew Smyly – 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 baserunners, 7 Ks vs. the Yankees.  The Emoticon just had a most impressive start on Saturday and has his ERA down for the count of 1.23.  Last week when I said to grab him, it was a bit of a “What the hey, pick him up” waiver wire acquisition.  Now, it’s more of a “What the hey, seriously, pick him up.”  His LOB% is a bit of an eephus that’s about to get smacked, but his K-rate should prevent him from falling too hard.

David Phelps – Will take over for Freddy Garcia in the rotation.  A terrible starter being replaced by a middling middle reliever.  Phelps looks like he might have a 4-ish ERA and a 7-ish K-rate.  Wouldn’t even be news if it was for any team other than the Yankees.  Maybe the Yankees can exact some revenge and trade David Phelps to the Mariners for the rights to Jay Buhner Jr.

Robinson Cano – Batting third for the Yankees for the first month and has 4 RBIs.  Chris Davis got 4 RBIs on Saturday.  The number nine hitter for the Orioles, Andino, has 6 RBIs.  I will now put on a gorilla suit and mail myself to Africa.

Anibal Sanchez – 7 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 14 Ks.  I heard Justin Bieber’s Boyfriend song on the radio, and I immediately thought of Anibal.  No lie.  It’s not gay since his name’s Anibal.  It’s gay that I was listening to Bieber.

Giancarlo Stanton – 1-for-4 with his 1st home run.  Is it bad I actually had to look at three different sites to make sure I was seeing right that he hit a home run?  Yeah, probably.  Now hit nine more tomorrow and we’ll be so cool again.  I’ll even massage your sore knee with my tongue.  What, it’s the strongest muscle!

Josh Johnson – 5 1/3IP, 5 ER.  Obviously got tired of that reputation that he could only pitch well when he was healthy.

Hanley Ramirez – 0-for-3; Jose Reyes – 0-for-3, as they both bat .205 on the year.  Maybe move both of them to 2nd base and let Omar Infante play shortstop and 3rd base.  I’m thinking of creative solutions; don’t kill the messenger.

Max Scherzer – 4 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 3 Ks… Why was he pulled so early?  Oh, 14 baserunners in less than 5 innings.  Wow.  It’s nearly mathematical impossible to have 14 baserunners, only record 14 outs and only allow 3 earned runs.  I hate to give up on him and drop him to waivers, but I’d want to see at least one good start on my bench before starting him in any league.

Matt Thornton – Got the save yesterday.  My over/under for Santiago losing the job was the end of April.  Not too shabby.  Yeah, I do think Thornton takes over, at least that’s what I’ve been writing on this site that you are reading, but as of right now Ventura is still saying Santiago’s the closer.  We shall see.  Or not!  Your choice.

Gavin Floyd – 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 baserunners, 9 Ks as he took a no hitter into the 7th vs. the Red Sox.  But the Red Sox have Nick Punto, Marlon Byrd, Ryan Sweeney, Mike Aviles, Cody Ross and Kelly Shoppach in their lineup!  Somehow the Red Sox have been able to bamboozle fantasy owners into thinking they’re good, even though Sweeney, Aviles, Shoppach, Byrd, Ross and Punto are all guys coming from other teams where they were marginal starters.  Right now, the Red Sox lineup looks like cemetery of fallen fantasy value.

Jake Peavy – 9 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 7 Ks.  If you Google “resurgence,” you’re going to find five articles about Jake Peavy and five about al-Qaeda.  Of those ten articles, 2 mention selling Peavy, 3 mention buying him and 10 mention injuries.

Edwin Encarnacion – Three games in a row with a homer and capped this three-peat (trademark Pat Riley) with a slam & legs yesterday.  I’m really happy for all his owners.  I’m not bitter at all.  I’ll probably get Edwin’s as-of-right-now stats (7 homers, 4 steals) from Ryan Zimmerman by August.  The RZ:  Brand new from Toyota.  Flashy exterior and tons of hype, then, as soon as you drive it off the lot, you regret the purchase and it breaks down for 5 months.

Jose Bautista – 1-for-4 with his 2nd steal as he sits on 3 homers for the year while Omar Infante struts around like Buddy Love.

Kenley Jansen – Got two saves this weekend.  Mattingly’s saying some shizz about Guerra needing a rest.  I’ll say Mattingly needs to give that a rest.  Mattingly seems like the type that can’t admit he was wrong (or so says his Rip Torn-ish looking, mugshot-taking ex-wife), so he may pull one of these deals where he never says Jansen is now the closer, but Jansen just starts getting saves until it’s obvious he’s the closer.

Chris Capuano – 6 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 9 Ks.  What’s this the longest post ever?  Maronna mia!  Yeah, I’d pick up Capuano.  Solid Ks in a good pitchers’ park.

Wade Miley – 6 1/3 IP, 0 ER, 3 baserunners, 6 Ks.  He’s pitching above his head right now.  Well, he’s not a sidearmer.  Cute, Random Italicized Voice.  I mean, he can’t keep this up.  That’s what she said!  What?  Miley has NL-Only appeal for now, but I’d be careful in mixed leagues.

Gerardo Parra – 2-for-3 with a steal.  You know who Parra is playing like right now?  A guy that is getting a chance to play and wants to prove himself, i.e., he’s building a wall of stats to fend off any other Diamondback options, a *pinkie to mouth* Parra-pet.

Patrick Corbin – He was the pitcher the Diamondbacks called up for Monday’s start, relegating Collmenter to shoveling crap out of the bullpen.  “Hey, Shaw, will you stop pooping on the bullpen mound?”  “Why, we got Collmenter now.”  That was overheard in the D-Backs bullpen this weekend.  Corbin had a solid K/BB and could surprise some major league hitters.  The downside is he’s 15 years old (22) and probably is just a placeholder for Bauer or Skaggs.  BTW, Bauer and Skaggs opened for Big & Rich.  Their big song, “Save a Morse, Ride a LaRoche.”

Dexter Fowler – At four homers, he has 2 more homers than steals.  Fowler also weighs the same as one of Stanton’s thighs.  Cust killin’ myself.

Frank Francisco – Blew the save yesterday as the closepocalypse sweeps through the Mets.  Jesse Orsoco’s house fell on top of Frank Francisco’s legs and Ram-Ram got the save.  I don’t think a change of closer is imminent here, but that’s more because the Mets’ other options haven’t been great and my brain can only compute 17 closer changes per roundup.  Overload!  Overload!  Red alert!  Let me off the closerousel!

Tim Lincecum – 8 IP, 0 ER, 7 baserunners, 5 Ks cutting his ERA to about half what it was two weeks ago.  Sure, this game was against the Padres, who had one good hitter coming into this year and he’s now batting under .200 and in the 7th hole and his name rhymes with Maynotbeasgoodasyouthoughtbin, but I’m guessing it’s too late to buy low on Lincecum.

Wilson Betemit – 1-for-4 with his 2nd homer in his last three games as he played third and made Reynolds’ excuse, “It’s not me, it’s 3rd base,” look bad.

Matt Garza – 7 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hit, 1 Walk, 10 Ks.  You can’t spell Garza without Rza, so you know he got The W with no help from Ol’ Dirty Barney.

Grant Balfour – 0 IP, 3 ER and his 2nd blown save, Matt Capps just gives up runs for S’s and G’s and, while they might not be in the same team, Carlos Marmol seems to be picking up whatever it is that Collmenter is shoveling.  I don’t think any of them are in serious danger of losing their closer jobs (this week).  All three teams are going nowhere fast and they’d be better served to get to the trading deadline with a closer to trade.

Brandon Inge – About to sign with the A’s.  That’ll fix the A’s!  Goodbye, cellar!  There’s gotta be a Moneyball sequel with the little white kid from The Blind Side playing Inge and Don Swayze playing Billy Beane.

Bartolo Colon – 8 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 8 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Remarkable turnaround of his career continues since his fat and bone marrow stem cell surgery.  At what point does Bartolo Colon surgery become as prevalent as Tommy John surgery?  It doesn’t seem like you need an injury to get the surgery either.  Get the surgery and you’re just good.  The doctor who did the surgery is out of Boca Raton, the old Jew shuffleboard capital of the world.  Soon we’re gonna have Ira Shlomowitz and Harvey Edelbaum, once legendary mah-jong players, throwing 95 MPH, and asking the home plate ump if they can go to their mouth, not because it’s cold, but because they need to adjust their dentures.  Having their choice of teams to sign with, Ira says, “I think I’m gonna pitch for the Mariners.  Seattle has great herring.”

No surprise that Johan Santana pitched well yesterday.  Everyone pitched well yesterday (except relievers).  Now I know what it was like to play fantasy baseball during the dead ball era.  “Hey, Scoots, I got me a base hit from my second bagger!  I’m so excited, but maybe that excitement is from this Coca-Cola that’s made from cocaine!  I love me some fizzle!  I’m gonna boil this Coca-Cola, then smoke the leftover brown soot.  You want in, Scoots?  Huh?!”  Can’t everyone do the juice and then use FedEx?  I miss the shrunken ball era!  Did anyone even hit a ball out of the infield yesterday?  Someone lower the mound six inches and use aluminum bats.  Please!  I need Justin Masterson looking like Bob Gibson like I need another hole in my head (I already have four; one of my ears closed up after listening to the Cleveland Indian announcers).  Can’t say I wasn’t unpleasantly surprised to see Johan pitching.  It would’ve been straight pleasantly, but I don’t own him anywhere.  He’s not the pitcher he once was.  He’s not going back to that, but he looked like he could be a fairly competent number three fantasy starter if — and this “if” is the size of Gilbert Grape’s mom — he can stay healthy.  Though, after yesterday, every healthy pitcher may be a competent number three.  Now go smoke some Coca-Cola soot!  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Frank Francisco – A perfect inning save.  It’s safe to drop Rauch and/or Parnell.  If you want, pretend you’re going catch Rauch in a trust exercise, then let him drop.  It’s more fun that way.

Jason Bay – 0-for-3.  I’m putting the over/under at 24 months for how long until he’s out of baseball.

Andres Torres – Left the 7th inning with a calf strain.  He’s headed to the DL.  Boo.  Or, I guess with an injured calf, it’s moo.  Scott Hairston should now see starts against lefties.  Jerry Hairston Sr., you named the wrong one after you!  (And, really, how do you not name one of your sons, Harry?)

Kirk Nieuwenhuis – He sounds like a piece of furniture at Ikea, but don’t sleep on this guy!  See what I did there?  Yeah, I’m not sure either.  Nieuwenhuis has double digit speed and power and should see the righties in the outfield platoon with Hairston.  In NL-Only leagues, I’d definitely grab him because if he hits, he may push Bay to the bench.

Ian Desmond – 3-for-5 with a steal.  I know he’s not going to hit .600 this year (though he will maintain his 162 steal pace), but can everyone stop putting a mirror up to his nose to see if he’s dead?

Brad Lidge – 1 IP, 0 ER as he got the save yesterday (though it wasn’t pretty.  Though II, The Return of Though:  Lidge hasn’t had a pretty save in three years).  Davey Johnson said he’s going to alternate back and forth between Lidge and Rodriguez for saves.  In other words, he’s doing the highly scientific method of Eeny Meeny Miney Moe.

Stephen Strasburg – 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Worked through seven innings with only 82 pitches.  He dispatched of the Cubs Thirty Days’ War-quick.  Woot, woot, House of Strasburg, raise your pith helmets!

Tommy Hanson – 5 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Saw glimpses of Hommy Tanson yesterday, but also saw glimpses of why I avoided him this year.  He seemed to labor a bit through five innings only throwing in the upper-80′s, then luckily was bailed out by Kris Medlen, the newest flat-billed pitchypus.

Jason Heyward – 0-for-4, as he batted 7th against a lefty.  I imagine he’ll move up to 6th vs. righties, but he needs to hit his way out of the bottom of the order, like, quickfast.

Ryan Dempster – 7 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 10 Ks.  I don’t think I drafted him anywhere (Grey have too many teams), but I did like him in the preseason (member that phase of our life?  It was seventy-two hours ago, which sounds like a bad action-thriller).

Bryan LaHair – Missed the opener because his back pain was too much to LaBear.

Alfredo Aceves – One game, one inherited runner allowed to score for the Tigers’ walkoff win.  So far, so good!  I thought Bobby Valentine was hitting the sauce when he put Alfredo in as the closer, but he wasn’t creamed yesterday (that was like a triple pun point), so I doubt anything’s changed with the bullpen situation.  If anything, Melancon just made himself look worse.  “Do I have to stand in the corner?  Big Papi farted over there.”  That’s Melancon after being scolded.

Ryan Sweeney – 2-for-4 with a triple.  He’s in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell.  His sister, Julia, is not.

Jay Bruce – 1-for-3, 2 RBIs, 1 run.  One B, one R, one C, one E and eleven U’s, what do you get?

Zack Cozart – 2-for-4, 1 run.  Bu-da-ba-bah-dah!  Bu-da-ba-bah-dah!  That’s Cozart’s Out Of The Minors Concerto played from the two hole.

Chris Heisey – Launched a double in his only at-bat.  Might be the best 4th outfielder in baseball.  Wait, that would mean Ludwick is better than him.  Yeah, Heisey’s the best 3rd outfielder that is currently a 4th outfielder.  Hopefully, Dusty and his toothpick get on the same page and move Ludwick to the pine.  On a real baseball note, the Reds are gonna be tough this year.

Johnny Cueto – 7 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 4 Ks.  He came up against a Miami club that left Crayola Canyon late on Wednesday and had to play again early on Thursday.  I’m not reading too much into Cueto’s start (actually, I guess I am).  I’m still not going in on Cueto.

Ryan Doumit – Slated to start in the outfield on Opening Day.  Guess no one told the Twins Doumit is German for “Without Mitt.”

Scott Baker – It takes a certain kind of mettle to get injured while rehabbing from an injury and Baker’s heavy with that mettle.

Jonathan Broxton – The Royals named Broxton the closer.  Too bad they didn’t also name a closer for the White Sox.  Can go ahead and drop Holland.

Jack Hannahan – Hit a 3-run HR, his 3rd opening day HR.  It’s too bad closing time at Hannahan’s is April 30th.  Enjoy the happy hour specials while you can.

Justin Masterson – 8 IP, 1 ER, 3 baserunners, 10 Ks, but no win.  Let’s see if you can guess the theme?  Morroccan!  No, Random Italicized Voice.  The theme is great start from the starter followed by hideous relief.

Chris Perez – 2/3 IP, 3 ER and the blown save.  Cleveland isn’t known for BBQ, but their closer sure looks like smoked meat.  He should let Masterson go Brutus Beefcake on his mullet for blowing his awesome start.  Perez owners – if you haven’t done it already – grab Signore Pestano.

Jose Bautista – 3-for-4 with his first home run (since I started believing him — I’ve been backwards dunked in Bautista’s waters!).

J.P. Arencibia – 1-for-7, 3 RBIs and a home run.  Sounds about the going rate for Arencibia — he’s a one spicy catcher!

Brett Lawrie – 0-for-6.  Drop him!

Roy Halladay – 8 IP, 0 ER, 2 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Since Spring Training is still fresh in everyone’s brain, do you remember how ridiculous it was when people were saying Halladay’s lost velocity and getting pounded?  I mean, it’s not like he was going against the 1988 A’s yesterday, but c’mon.  Don’t aggravate Grey.  You disrupt his mustache’s sheen.

Jose Valverde – 1 IP, 2 ER….and there goes the suspense for whether Valverde could go perfect in save opportunities for a 2nd year in a row.  The last guy I remember being perfect was Lidge in 2008 and he had – gulp – 11 blown saves the next year.  Anyway, in summary, Valverde sucked but owners can’t be mad because he got the conshellation prize, Verlander owners can’t be mad because he threw an awesome start, leagues with QS instead of Wins have already programmed out any Blown Save-related anger like a robot who can’t feel emotions.

Justin Verlander – 8 IP, 0 ER, 3 baserunners, 7 Ks.  Of course, he pitched well.  Dan Cortese from Rock ‘n Jock Softball could’ve pitched well yesterday.

Clayton Kershaw – Only pitched three innings because of a stomach flu.  Or maybe Bobby Valentine is managing the Dodgers by satellite and thought Kershaw should be a middle reliever who starts games.

Kenley Jansen – 1 IP, 2 ER.  I’m not sure there’s anything more frustrating than a middle reliever you know isn’t going to get saves that you own for ratio and strikeout help that gives up runs.  It’s like you make an arrangement with a girl that it’s strictly a sexual relationship and then you meet her parents.  During sex.

Joakim Soria went from being a $12 Salad to a Donkeycorn to a Brain Freeze back to a Donkeycorn to off the list completely in 12 short months.  And if this is the first post you’ve ever read at Razzball, I probably lost you by the eighth word.  Later!  In Soria’s wake is Broxton and Holland, who together can be called Hamsterdam.  In other “Saves give me serious agita” news is Ryan Madson.  He went from a donkeycorn to off the list.  Donkeycorns are dropping like flies!  Then there’s Drew Storen.  He was touch ‘n go there for a day or two… Okay, for about a week or two, but it seems like he could be okay.  Yet, he’s starting the year on the DL.  Terrific.  Since our last Closer Look, Beane told us Balfour got the closer job in Oakland and Chris Perez got the job back from Pestano, which has the Italian American Anti-Defamation League up in arms, but that’s the norm for them since they talk with their hands.  Finally, Carlos Marmol had some nerve issues with his hand that many Razzball commenters opined was from too much internet porn surfing.  Sounds like someone is empathizing.  Anyway, here’s all the closers for 2012 fantasy baseball:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Craig Kimbrel (Jonny Venters, Kris Medlen)
2. John Axford (Francisco Rodriguez)
3. Mariano Rivera (+1) (David Robertson, Rafael Soriano)
4. Jonathon Papelbon (+1) (Antonio Bastardo, Chad Qualls)
5. Jose Valverde (+1) (Joaquin Benoit, Octavio Dotel)

Donkeycorns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkeycorns.

6. J.J. Putz (+1) (David Hernandez, Takashi Saito)
7. Heath Bell (+1) (Steve Cishek, Juan Leo Carlos Nunez Oviedo)
8. Huston Street (+6) (Luke Gregerson, Andrew Cashner)
9. Jason Motte (+4) (Fernando Salas, Eduardo Sanchez)
10. Brian Wilson (-4) (Santiago Casilla, Sergio Romo)
11. Joel Hanrahan (Evan Meek, Chris Resop)
12. Andrew Bailey (+4) (Mark Melancon, Daniel Bard)
13. Sergio Santos (+3) (Francisco Cordero)
14. Kyle Farnsworth (+4) (Joel Peralta, Jake McGee)
15. Carlos Marmol (-6) (Kerry Wood, Rafael Dollis)
16. Jordan Walden (+1) (Scott Downs, Rich Thompson)
17. Frank Francisco (+3) (Jon Rauch, Ramon Ramirez)
18. Brandon League (+6) (Tom Wilhelmsen, George Sherrill)

Brain Freeze

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Matt Capps– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Valencia in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

19. Rafael Betancourt (+2) (Rex Brothers)
20. Javy Guerra (-1) (Kenley Jansen, Matt Guerrier)
21. Grant Balfour (+8) (Brian Fuentes, Faustino De Los Santos)
22. Sean Marshall (-10) (Nick Masset, Aroldis Chapman)
23. Joe Nathan (Mike Adams, Alexi Ogando)
24. Brett Myers (+2) (Wilton Lopez, David Carpenter, Brandon Lyon)
25. Chris Perez (+4) (Vinnie Pestano, Tony Sipp)
26. Jim Johnson (Kevin Gregg, Matt Lindstrom)
27. Matt Thornton (-3) (Jesse Crain, Addison Reed, Will Ohman, Hector Santiago)
28. Matt Capps (Glen Perkins, Jared Burton)
29. Greg Holland/Jonathan Broxton (-19) (Aaron Crow)
30. Brad Lidge/Henry Rodriguez (-27) (Drew Storen, Tyler Clippard, Mitt Romney)

In our last look at the Bottom of the Ninth, we tackled four closers I thought were being severely undervalued in fantasy drafts this year. Today, let’s discuss a few non-ninth inning relievers that I feel will end up with the job before all is said and done, and probably sooner rather than later. Bring us your Segio Santoses, your Jason Mottes, your Jordan Waldens, your Javy Guerras! OK, maybe not your Javy Guerras.

Vinnie Pestano, Indians. All right, I’ll admit I’m cheating a bit with this one. A Chris Perez injury means Pestano is actually likely to start the season manning the ninth inning, which completely side-steps the premise of this column right off the bat. Am I a fraud? Is it okay to tar and feather me and display me in the public square? Hang on a minute.

To be fair, Pestano would have led this article whether Perez was healthy or not. While the Indians closer did a good job on the surface, converting 36 of 40 save opportunities and posting a decent 3.32 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, Perez was far from good, or even acceptable, last season. A 5.9 K/9 rate mixed with a 3.9 BB/9 rate gave Perez a Royals-rotation-worthy 1.50 K/BB ratio in 2011. His FIP was a 4.27, while his xFIP was a 5.01. Since those numbers probably mean nothing to you, let me put that FIP in context. Only six other pitchers who threw at least 50 innings had a FIP that awful last season: Sean O’Sullivan, Brad Hand, Miguel Batista, Kyle Drabek, Guillermo Moscoso and John Grabow. How many of them do you want closing games? I think Sean O’Sullivan (a.k.a. “Sully”) finished the season pitching BP for your kid’s Little League team. Or your kids’ Little League team. Seriously, I don’t know what you do behind closed doors.

So by now, you’ll realize that the best way to talk up Pestano as a long-term option is to run through Perez’s flaws. However, I think they manifest themselves quite well in that 5.01 FIP, so let’s move on to My Sleeper Vinnie. His ERA, FIP and xFIP were all under 3.00 last year while he struck out 84 batters in 62 innings. His numbers were even better in 2010 while pitching most of the year in the minors, where he had FIPs under 2.00 in Double-A and Triple-A. Even conservative projection systems have him striking out over a batter an inning while maintaining an ERA south of Perez. With the Indians drawing a little sleeper buzz thanks to new pitching and the brilliant re-signing of Grady Sizemore, who is so injury-prone that he managed to get Scott Sizemore knocked out for the entire 2012 season, the club can’t afford to put up with a Perez meltdown. Pestano is guy you want in this bullpen.

Kenley Jansen, Dodgers. Javy Guerra (2.31 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) isn’t Chris Perez, but he’s not fantastic either, with a K/9 of 7.33 and a K/BB of 2.11 last year. If HR/9 and BABIP head to their standard levels, Guerra could be looking at an ERA in the high threes or low fours, and with the competition looming in his ‘pen, that’s not going to cut it.

Jansen has visions of Craig Kimbrel dancing in owners’ heads after striking out 96 guys in 53.2 innings for a 16.1 K/9 last year. I’d love to tell you the last time a pitcher had a 16.0 K/9 rate or better in 50 innings or more, but it never happened before last season. Ever. Not even during Eric Gagne’s Cy Young season. Kenley Jansen: best strikeout pitcher ever? He was last year, and that’s why owners are drafting him over Guerra in most formats. I would too — he has a shot at being something special. And not special like when your parents call you special, but really special.

Addison Reed, White Sox. Matt Thornton posted his worst season since 2007 last year, but he wasn’t awful. In fact, he still struck out over a batter an inning and posted a decent 3.32 ERA despite being done in a bit by luck (.326 BABIP, 61.2% strand rate). In fact, he makes for a perfectly serviceable closer — if you like your closers to be 35-year-old lefties. Another knock against Thornton is his mediocrity against right-handed batters, against whom he had a 7.8 K/9, 4.0 BB/9 and 1.9 K/BB (compared to 11.8, 2.1 and 5.7, respectively, against lefties). When you stick a guy solely in the ninth inning, you let the opposing manager dictate whom he sees. Who do you think they’ll send to the plate to face Thornton?

Chicago knows they’re better served using Thornton in the right matchups before the ninth inning, so I fully expect them to tab Addison Reed as their closer for the majority of this season. After being selected in the third round of the 2010 draft, Reed barnstormed through four different minor league levels last season, amassing a 1.26 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, 12.8 K/9, 1.6 BB/9 and 4.9 hit/9 in 78.1 innings. Even MC Hammer couldn’t touch that! (Crickets.) You’re right, I apologize for that one. Oh, he ended up posting a 12.0 K/BB in 7.1 major league innings too, so yeah. He could be the next great closer, as soon as this season.

And, we’re out of time. What, this isn’t a TV show? OK, well I at least promise to speed through these next options and let you get on with your day.

Sergio Romo, Giants. Brian Wilson is probably the most identifiable reliever in baseball, but he’s honestly not even the best reliever on his own team, according to last season’s stats. While Wilson’s K/9 dropped under 9.0 and his BB/9 rose to over 5.0 in 2011, Romo struck out 70 batters while walking only five guys in 48 innings. Amongst players with at least 40 innings pitched last year, Romo was first in FIP and xFIP by a wide margin over Craig Kimbrel. Since Wilson’s just turning 30 this season, the Giants should be able to trade him at a high value if they decide to go that route. Obviously, I think they should. He’s already dealing with elbow inflammation, and though it’s being called minor, I’d give him one month to build trade value then send him to the highest bidder.

Greg Holland, Royals. This could be the year the Mexcellent Trade Piece gets dealt to a contender, and that should be just fine with Royals fans. While the team added former closer Jonathan Broxton last offseason, the real jewel of the bullpen is Holland. His contact rate of 64.4% put him third in the league last year behind Jansen and Kimbrel (min. 50 IP). Ranking just behind him in that stat were Jonny Venters, Pestano and Sergio Santos. Excellent company. I think Soria gets traded by July 31 at the latest, and Holland outpitches Broxton in the first half.

Fautino De Los Santos, A’s. Oakland has a handful of candidates that could close games for them this year, headlined by assumed closer Grant Balfour and veteran Brian Fuentes (and “veteran” is about the nicest thing I can call him from a fantasy perspective). The intriguing option is De Los Santos, who’s posted K rates of 10.0 or higher every year since starting in A-ball in 2007. He struck out 43 batters in 33.1 innings in his major-league debut last year, and if he can keep the walks in check, he could quickly emerge as the A’s best ninth-inning guy.

Last time, on Nerd TV we looked at some SP whose actual Ks didn’t jive with their expected Ks from last season. That’s 2011, for those of you traveling through time while reading this. In case you can’t read minds or remember 70 random characters at a time, I’ve used this formula for the expected Ks:

eK%=(ClStr%*.9)+(Foul%*.5)+(InPly%*-.9)+(InZSwStr%*1.1)+(OZSwStr%*1.5)

Today, we’ll subjectively select some sandbaggin’ and overachievin’ RP for your fantasy baseball draft strategy.

If you missed Part 1, that’s where all your questions were answered about how, why and where the data was pulled.

RP Sandbaggers (eK% / K% / K% Diff):

Francisco Cordero – 19.9 / 15.3 / 4.6
Coco put up a superb ERA/WHIP combo and his K/9 should’ve been closer to league average than 5.43. This could be partially due to a change in his repertoire, as he induced more GB, chucked 25% less fastballs, and even worked in a curve. He topped it all off with a drop in velocity across the board, a .214 BABIP and a LOB% almost 5.5 points higher than his his career… what the…? His deflated numbers didn’t fool the Redlegs into showing him the money, and they shouldn’t get you all cuckoo for CoCo either, even if he ends up somewhere with closer potential. In case you’re wondering, Mad Dog shows up later on the list at +1.6%.

Jason Motte – 27.0 / 23.5 / 3.5
I’m all in on Motte like cinnamon is to applesauce. It’s time for pun with analogies, kids! His BABIP and HR/FB% were low and lower, but I’d like to think they’re naturally sweetened. Consider 1.2 more eK/9, an improved walk rate and a refined cutter and you’ve got Motte’s-appeal! Hopefully, the bitter taste of TLR’s 2011 non-committal closer endorsement affects Motte’s 2012 ADP such that hand-picking his goodness will be a cheap way to keep the saves doctor away.

Luke Gregerson – 17.5 / 14.1 / 3.4
When he pitched, Huston Street actually sat at +2.5%. If… nay, WHEN he gets hurt and/or traded, the logical place to look is this. Son of Gregor should’ve had a K/9 rate slightly under league average (which isn’t saying much compared to his career 9.3). He also had a low HR/FB rate to go with a dip in FB/CH velocity over the past two seasons. Luke went to the dark side, AKA the slider, 57.5% of the time too. Bode well this does not. Boxberger could get a shot, but with the acquisition of Cashner I think they’d do their best to keep White Castle on ice while they can. Tempura your expectations for a fresh cut backup closer for the Friars.

Kevin Gregg – 22.4 / 19.3 / 3.1
It’s assumed Jim Johnson, who was pretty spot on for eK% here, will assume the closer role rather than head for the rotation. But what if you and me are made into asses? Not much funny business is to be found in Gregg’s numbers, he simply isn’t a good closer. His eK/9 was 9.3, which sounds great in theory. In practice, he continues to hit the zone less, plus fool less batters into taking cuts. Vlurp. If a man points a gun at you and says you have to pick someone besides Gregg, it might be Alfredo Simon. In that case, you should probably pick Alfredo.

Heath Bell – 22.8 / 19.9 / 2.9
Unlike the predecessor formerly known as Leo Nunez, there shouldn’t be any mistake about his identity in the Miami bullpen. Between the improved offense, retooled rotation and his pen-pals, the portly slider should get plenty of chances. The new stadium should actually be a reasonable facsimile of Petco’s dimensions too. Aside from giving up more bad contact, being a bit lucky on BABIP and turning 34, there isn’t a ton that suggests a decline just yet, including this +1.1 expected K/9. If you must have your $12 salad, this one isn’t quite wilted.

Neftali Feliz – 24.0 / 21.4 / 2.6
His K/9 should’ve been less than 9, even with this boost. He’s set to start in the rotation (yes, I realize that’s what pitchers typically do there) despite not having pitched more than 100 innings since 2009, or ever started an MLB game. Texas’ bullpen has potential to be both nasty and fragile, so the move’s likely to stick unless the pen’s really depleted by injuries and/or he himself is. It’s unwise to ignore a player’s will to play through fatigue or injury. It’s also unwise to ignore the risk Neftali could end up infeliz, regardless of his role.

Chris Perez – 17.8 / 15.7 / 2.1
He lost a tick off his velocity, his SwStr%, F-Strike% and GB% dropped, and his O-Contact% took a pretty big jump. If he had ended up with more of what kounts here though (see what I just did there?), he would have been closer to his career lines across the board. I don’t think he’ll return to 2010 form, but there’s definitely room for improvement in his age 27 season. BTW, I’m not Sipp-ing the Kool-Aid on Tony’s +2.1 eK% in case Chris trades his Wild Side Of Perez face for more of his WSOP face.

Carlos Marmol – 32.2 / 30.3 / 1.9
Who has two thumbs and a career BB% almost one and a half times worse than Kevin Gregg? This guy! Not me, Marmol! My control wouldn’t fare any better if I came anywhere near throwing from a mound. I wouldn’t provide around 12 K/9 whilst being wildly inconsistent either. He’ll still get his, despite losing some zip. Just don’t make like a bushbaby when he gets dealt, with no guarantee to close, after the Cubbies pump up his value.

Frank Francisco – 26.1 / 24.3 / 1.8
Frank Frank has a bad (w)rap from being festooned with injuries, but he should fare well with a move to the NL and Citi vs. Arlington or Toronto. His expected K/9 was right around 10 too, like his career mark. If he does get hurt, what’s the worst that can happen? You (and you and you) have to take stabs at saves and a few less Ks from Jon Rauch or Ramon Ramirez, or a few more Ks and a smack from the WHIP of Bobby Parnell? The Mets won’t be good and the backup shituation is far from formed, but all the more reason Frank x 2 = cheap value.

Andrew Bailey – 25.8 / 24.1 / 1.7
Speaking of guys who can’t stay healthy… when he is, Bailey’s the cream. He just isn’t the shelf stable kind. What Irish luck he did have finally took a normalizing swing, which included missing out on a handful of Ks. Even in a less ideal home ballpark, he’ll put up acceptable stats again. His IP go 83.1 as 2009 ROY, 49.0, 41.2 though, so it’s not like the Sawx won’t know the drill. I can’t help but think they’ll go light on Bailey whether or not Bard floats as a starter. Melancon will get more than a few shots, even before the DL jig comes up, so plan accordionly.

Jordan Walden – 28.1 / 26.5 / 1.6
I don’t know whether Bill James is married, but if he is, Jay-Dub must’ve slept with his wife. I mean, he really doesn’t seem to like this guy and I don’t get it. The Pond wasn’t always still and he liked to go out for walks, but his K/9 should’ve been 10.6. Give the kid a second full year of immersion to get acclimated with the MLB experience and I think he’s got a great chance to be just as valuable without the related cerebral discord.

There are only about twice as many RP Sandbaggers as there are Overachievers, and I know you can’t wait to dig in.

RP Overachievers (eK% / K% / K% Diff):

Kenley Jansen – 38.7 / 44.0 / -5.3
…sounds like a NASCAR driver, and he likes to throw fast and to the left. With the biggest K% ding of any RP, he still would’ve been champ for expected K/9 on this list. It’s also kinda whack to knock a guy for control issues when he had a sustainabe 1.04 WHIP. Guerra’s K% should’ve been 1.4% higher, but Jansen ought to hammer down the closer role before long. Even with the risk of health issues and burnout from leaving the heater on almost 87% of the time, he could provide value reminiscent of a guy named…

Craig Kimbrel – 38.1 / 41.5 / -3.4
If you prefer to dig for diamonds in the rough as closers, Kimbrel could’ve rewarded your search in spades. An eK/9 of 13.6 still would have made him priceless. His health may not be forever, throwing only the gas and 30% sliders. However, if taking risk on top-tier quality is more your thing, even Kimbrel-lite’s a good bet to net you plenty of the shiny stuff next year.

Sergio Santos – 33.0 / 35.4 / -2.4
“Coo coo coo roo coo coo coo coo!” SS Closer has presumably docked in Toronto. “He should bring the same reliable service to the Great White North, eh?” Not so fast, my Canadian so-called-bacon-eating friend. “Take off, eh!” The former SS turns twenty-nine in twenty-twelve and we’re looking at a singular, pretty good year. His K/9 still would’ve been elite at 12.2, but is he really an improvement over Jansen? Some may say he’s a potential value pick. I say we’ve already seen his upside. “Beauty advice… from a hoser!”

Joel Hanrahan – 20.0 / 22.3 / -2.3
His was like a season’s worth of dream nights out; aggressive with first pitches, gave up contact, and got lucky a lot. He might have found some success cutting back on sliders and dishing more cheese, but I don’t think it’s realistic to expect it remain so tasty. His K/9 was 1.8 below his career rate and should’ve been lower. You could look past that, but you probably won’t like how rosy things are when you’re left with Joe-Han and a dream.

Rafael Betancourt – 29.2 / 30.8 / -1.6
“Duuuude, Rex Brothers IS Denver, man.” Whoa, if you want to spend your dimes on a wild rookie, maybe you’ve had Dawn Wells sending you care packages. The Bro’s -3.3% K% difference was over twice as high too. “High? *giggle* Nah…” I’ll stick with the other natural choice; John… er, the guy in the headline. “Wha? Don’t Bogart the Cheetos, dude.” Speaking of good bets, any snack product that ends in a homophone of -ito probably is one. Don’t read the ingredients on the Dor-itos bag though. Bonus points for Tito’s Vodka.