Fantasy Baseball Advice

The top 10 and 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball are in the bag, along with the top 20 catchers.  Today, Razzballers, we look at the top 20 1st basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball.  All this shizz can be found under the 2010 Fantasy Baseball rankings.  This top 20 list of 1st basemen is the opposite of the catchers, it is bursting at the seams like you at a Hometown Buffet.  Speaking of gorging yourself, as I mentioned elsewhere, I want a top 1st baseman on my team in 2010.  Sure, the list is deep, but 10 of these guys will probably be gone by the 4th round.  Do you really want to go to battle with, say, Derrek Lee when someone else has, say, Ryan Howard?  I don’t.  I want to be one of the teams with a top 1st baseman.  This list will get additional 1st basemen added to it in the way of sleeper posts like I added Kendry Morales last year.  As with the other rankings, the first basemen are broken up into tiers with my projections included.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 1st basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball:

1. Albert Pujols – See the top 10 for 2010 fantasy baseball post for Albert Pujols’s projections.

2. Mark Teixeira – See the top 10 for 2010 fantasy baseball post for Mark Teixeira’s projections.

3. Miguel Cabrera – See the top 10 for 2010 fantasy baseball post for Miguel Cabrera’s projections.

4. Prince Fielder – See the top 10 for 2010 fantasy baseball post for Prince Fielder’s projections.

5. Ryan Howard – See the top 10 for 2010 fantasy baseball post for Mark Teixeira’s projections.

6. Adrian Gonzalez – See the top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball post for Adrian Gonzalez’s projections.

7. Justin Morneau – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Reynolds.  I call this tier, “Probably as good as the last tier, but their track record’s a little wonky.”  I actually like Morneau this year.  I adverb’d my like because I haven’t liked him in a while.  Probably not since I started this time suck blog.  Why the sudden admiration?  Because I feel like the world has suddenly cooled on him, making him more affordable in drafts.  Of course, my love for him goes in the deep fryer if his back is giving him issues in spring training.  2010 Projections:  95/32/110/.290

8. Kevin Youkilis – Youuuuuuk’s production is very predictable.  In a game where players fluctuate all over the place, there’s value in that predictability.  2010 Projections:  95/27/105/.295/5

9. Mark Reynolds – See the top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball post for Mark Reynolds’s projections.

10. Joey Votto – This is a new tier.  This tier is just Votto.  I call this tier, “Yes, please.”  Here I went over my Votto fantasy for 2010.  2010 Projections:  90/30/105/.305/7

11. Victor Martinez – This is a new tier.  This tier goes until Lee.  I call this tier, “Caveats.”  The caveat with V-Mart is he could be rested more than the usual first baseman since he’ll be catching on most days.  See the top 20 catchers for 2010 fantasy baseball for Victor Martinez’s projections.

12. Pablo Sandoval – It’s hard to not like a chubby guy who goes by the nickname, Kung Fu Panda.  Who doesn’t love pandas?  It’s unpatriotic (in China).  I love pandas so much I want a freakin’ panda dog.  If I had a kid, I’m dye the kid to look like a panda.  So, I do like Pablo Sandoval.  But there’s caveats.  He’s not really a home run hitter.  It would not shock me to see him hit 22 homers in 2010.  Also, his average last year looks to be on the high side.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see a .300 average instead of .330.  I like him, just be careful what you’re expecting.  (Obviously at 3rd base, he’s more enticing.)  2010 Projections:  80/24/95/.315/4

13. Kendry Morales – I still like Kendry for 2010, but there’s some reason to believe 2009 was his career year.  He’s more of a .285 hitter than a .305 hitter.  I don’t entirely believe the power.  He’s more of a 27-plus homer hitter than a 32-plus hitter.  It might be quibbling, but if Kendry lands on the bottom of his potential, is he that different than Cuddyer?  2010 Projections:  80/28/100/.285/3

14. Adam Dunn - SAT question of the day.  From 2006 to 2009, Adam Dunn hit .234, .264, .236, .267, respectively.   In 2010, Adam Dunn will hit A) .238 B) 40 homers C) There is no C.  2010 Projections:  80/40/100/.250

15. Carlos Pena – Last year, Pena’s average was lower than it should’ve been. He’s still only a .250 hitter.  .250 hitters can hit .220 again if the ball doesn’t bounce like it should.  Pena also led the AL in homers.  2010 Projections:  95/37/100/.250

16. Derrek Lee – Derrek Lee had the highest fly ball percentage of his career last year.  Okay, hotshot, now you have to ask yourself, do you think he’s going to continue this in 2010 or do you think he’s going to revert to his career norms outside of 2009?  2010 Projections:  90/25/100/.295

17. Lance Berkman – Hmm… He hit 29 homers in his 2008 season when he was 32-years-old.  At the age of 33, he hit 25.  By the time he’s 40, he’s going to be Juan Pierre.  I wouldn’t expect 30 homers just because you and your brother, Jimbo, grew up watching Berkman hit 30 bombs a year.  Before Canseco started sticking suckas with needles, it was pretty normal to see a decline in players Berkman’s age.  2010 Projections:  70/23/85/.285/3

18. Billy Butler – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Davis.  I call this tier, “Your last chance for some upside, but these guys aren’t slam dunks.”  Last year he hit 51 doubles.  Have you seen the moobs on this guy?  He has to hit a few more of those doubles for homers in 2010, doesn’t he?  I like to think so.  Though I have noticed something of late.  He seems to be turning into a sleeper sell, like Chris Davis last year. Butler still hits lots of ground balls and he needed 672 plate appearances for 21 homers last year.  Don’t go crazy with yourself expecting the world from Butler.  He may end up overrated even if I like him to an extent.  2010 Projections:  85/25/100/.295

19. Garrett Jones – He’s just so old for a 2nd year player that it’s hard to get fully behind him.  He reminds me of Ludwick.  Big splash his rookie year then a fade in the 2nd year.  He obviously could go 30/10, but he can also get exploited over a full season and end up being waiver fodder.  Caveat emptor, for those reading in Latin America.  2010 Projections:  65/25/80/.255/12

20. Chris Davis – Read all about him in my Chris Davis sleeper post.  2010 Projections:  65/28/85/.255/7

21. Michael Cuddyer – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Loney.  I call this tier, “I hope you’re sitting in an exit row.” Cuddyer is a 24 homer, .275 hitter.  Last year was a career year…. And it’s not even that great of a career.  Don’t pay for a career year the following season.  2010 Projections:  85/24/95/.275/5

22. Russell Branyan – Last year was nice, I really don’t see it happening again.  And, if it does happen again from a power standpoint, I wouldn’t expect the average to even be as high as last year’s .251 mark.  2010 Projections:  60/22/70/.240

23. James Loney – It feels like every year Loney is ranked 20th with the promise of more.  This year, I’m ranking him 20th and expecting 20th ranked production.  Whether it’s his ground ball rate or mediocre power, I don’t know, but he’s not getting better.  2010 Projections: 75/15/85/.290/4

After the top 20, there’s lots of names, but two stand out:

Brandon Allen – I went over him in the Brandon Allen fantasy baseball outlook whosie-wiggers.  Has 20 homer power to spare.  Want someone that can surprise and move into the top 15 next year?  Here ya go.  UPDATE:  LaRoche signed with the Diamondbacks.  This is one of those signings where you know the club isn’t thinking, “Yeah! LaRoche makes us a playoff team!” Or, “Yeah!  LaRoche puts bodies in the seats!”  This is one of those moves where you don’t know what the club is thinking.  Play the youngster!  Alas, they’re not going to.  They’re going to play LaRoche.  Adam LaRoche’s 2010 Projections:  70/27/80/.265

Carlos Delgado – UPDATE:  Out for four months.

Gone over the catchers, 1st basemen, 2nd basemen, shortstops and 3rd basemen.  Guess what’s next!  The title might have gave it away.  With the top 20 outfielders a pattern emerges.  Steroids can be tested for, but Red Bull can’t.  It was the summer of speed and somewhere Ron LeFlore smiles.  Since outfield is a deep position, I think I’m going to turn this one to 40.  Those will be here on Thursday.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 outfielders for 2009 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:

1. Carl Crawford – For four years, Crawford was featured prominently in the top of the preseason rankings for outfielders, and, in 2009, he finally fulfilled that promise by ranking first overall at the end of the season.  Wouldn’t you know it, last year was not one of those top preseason ranking years.  After an abysmal 2008, Crawford’s stock did a Triple Lindy coming into 2009.  Then he exploded for 21 steals in May and he looked like he might surpass Lou Brock’s career total by August.  Unfortunately, he slowed down in the 2nd half.  Let’s hope it wasn’t his knee shouting expletives at the artificial turf.  Preseason Rank #10, 2009 Projections:  85/15/80/.300/45, Final Numbers:  96/15/68/.305/60

2. Jacoby Ellsbury – Hamilton-Burrishly, Ellsbury and Crawford dueled during the regular season to see who would steal more bases, Ellsbury won the battle, but Crawford the war.  On a sidenote, not such a great sign that the top two outfielders gave a majority of value with the steal.  Where’s the 40 homer outfielders?  There were none.  Not even Adam Dunn.  That’s something that will need to be addressed in its own post during the offseason.  Seems like something for December Grey.  Preseason Rank #16, 2009 Projections:  110/10/60/.285/40, Final Numbers:  94/8/60/.301/70

3. Ryan Braun – I said this the other day when talking about Evan Longoria, but it applies here, as well.  Braun may not have been a disappointment per se, but eff “per se” in its Frenchy-sounding goolie.  I wanted 40 homers from Braun!  Preseason Rank #2, 2009 Projections:  100/40/110/.280/15, Final Numbers:  113/32/114/.320/20

4. Matt Kemp – Here’s what I said last January, “I not only bought into the Matt Kemp hype, I rolled it up in decorative sugar and began to sell it at a local bake sale.  You want someone in the fourth round in 2009 that could be a first or second rounder in 2010?  Matt Kemp’s your man, man.  He’s the future, kids.”  And that’s me quoting me!  And me was right.  Next year, I’m taking Kemp in the 1st round and I’m going to like it.  Preseason Rank #11, 2009 Projections:  95/24/80/.295/30, Final Numbers:  97/26/101/.297/34

5. Ichiro Suzuki – The average is great, the steals are okay, the homers are bleh.  Another Ichiro year.  Preseason Rank #12, 2009 Projections:  110/7/50/.315/35, Final Numbers:  88/11/46/.352/26

6. Matt Holliday – Did it help his RBIs to bat behind Pujols?  Probably.  Maybe a few more homers than if he stayed with the A’s?  Yup, but as you see from my preseason projections he was pretty much in line with what I thought he’d do.  He was scorching hot when he went from the A’s to the Cards.  I believe that he would’ve been hot in the 2nd half no matter where he played.  Next year when people are saying he’ll return to 30 homers, I’m going to say again he’s a 25 home run hitter.  Unless he signs with the Rockies or the Yankees.  Preseason Rank #5, 2009 Projections:  90/22/105/.310/12, Final Numbers:  94/24/109/.313/14

7. Bobby Abreu – Who would’ve put three Angels in the top 20 in the beginning of the year?  Gene Autry’s Ghost, perhaps.  But not many people.  I thought Abreu would steal a bit more on the Angels, but I thought the years of 30 steals were long gone.  Preseason Rank #25, 2009 Projections:  110/17/100/.300/20, Final Numbers:  96/15/103/.293/30

8. Michael Bourn – Speed is definitely in a renaissance.  It’s like the go-go 80s with Rock Raines sniffing coke off of the dashboard of Keith Hernandez’s El Dorado.  All we need now is for Okrent to send out the standings in the mail.  Makes you wonder if speed would’ve ever left the scene if it wasn’t for steroids.  Preseason Rank #66, 2009 Projections:  70/4/30/.240/40, Final Numbers:  97/3/35/.285/61

9. Adam Lind – I’ve already talked a bit about my thoughts on Lind for 2010.  Right now, we’re talking about 2009, ya’ll.  He’ll be the magical 27 years old in 2010.  Shoot, we’re talking about 2009.  Um, he had a good year.  Yeah, that’s the ticket.  (There will be more to come!)  Preseason Rank #61, 2009 Projections:  65/22/85/.275/3, Final Numbers:  93/35/114/.305/1

10. Jayson Werth – Hopefully you didn’t abandon ship when he got off to a rocky April start (2 homers, 10 RBIs).  After that, Werth ended up having a very consistent season, hitting at least 6 homers every month.  Then he chucked in 5 steals in four games of October because he obviously owned himself in a H2H league.  Preseason Rank #41, 2009 Projections:  95/17/70/.270/17, Final Numbers:  98/36/99/.268/20

11. Jason Bay – Now for the inconsistent Jason.  He hit 19 of his homers in two months of the season (May and August).  In July, he hit 1 homer and drove in only 5 runs.  On the bright side, he must’ve realized he was starring in a donkey show with him being the donkey because he contributed 6 steals in July.  Preseason Rank #17, 2009 Projections:  100/32/110/.280/10, Final Numbers:  103/36/119/.267/13

12. Justin Upton – I see your love for B.J. and I raise you a 20/20/.300 season.  Preseason Rank #48, 2009 Projections:  70/20/70/.260/7, Final Numbers:  84/26/86/.300/20

13. Kendry Morales – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen post. Final Numbers:

14. Ben Zobrist – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen post.  Final Numbers:

15. Shin-Soo Choo – I wonder if there’s a fantasy baseball blogger in Korea writing Torii Hunter is the American Shin-Soo Choo.  Things that make you say hmm…  Preseason Rank #51, 2009 Projections:  70/16/70/.280/11, Final Numbers:  87/20/86/.300/21

16. Denard Span – Did I underestimate Denard Dawg’s relevance in the beginning of the season?  I don’t think so, since my projections were pretty spot-on.  So why did I rank him 53rd?  Because I didn’t realize how few homers would come out of the outfield in 2009.  You could’ve found 27 guys who contributed 20 steals, but how many guys hit 30 homers?  11 guys.  To be continued… Preseason Rank #53, 2009 Projections:  90/8/60/.285/20, Final Numbers:  97/8/68/.311/23

17. Torii Hunter – On July 3rd, I told you to sell Hunter when he was at 17/13.  In the last three months, he went 5/5.  Cust kayin’.  Preseason Rank #30, 2009 Projections:  85/24/85/.275/17, Final Numbers:  74/22/90/.299/18

18. Nyjer Morgan – Let’s reenact the day Nyjer was traded from the Pirates.  “Nyjer, you’ve been traded.”  A five minute dance, followed by ten minutes of celebratory hoots and hollers as he lets everyone know how glad he is to be out of the Pirates organization.  “Nyjer, you’re going to the Nats.”  Nyjer cries.  Then he devotes himself to proving the Pirates wrong as he hits .351 with the Nats and steals 24 bases in 49 games.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  74/3/39/.307/42

19. Johnny Damon – The Yankees figured out a way to reverse the effects of all of their aging players.  Have them play in a Little League field.  Preseason Rank #26, 2009 Projections:  105/15/70/.285/20, Final Numbers:  107/24/82/.282/12

20. Shane Victorino – Wait, Denard Dawg was supposed to be emulating Victorino.  Teacher, student… Not student, teacher.  Not student, teacher!  Victorino’s season worries me a bit because he did much better last year in 50 less at-bats.  In 620 ABs in 2009, his stats should look better.  I’ve already had my love of Sparkakis desecrated this year.  Not you too, Victorino… Please.   Preseason Rank #15, 2009 Projections:  100/15/60/.285/35, Final Numbers:  102/10/62/.292/25

We’ve already went over the top 20 catchers for 2009; soon we’ll go over the top 20 2nd basemen for 2009, then the top 20 shortstops… Well, right now we’re going over the top 20 1st basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball.  It’s a look back, ya’ll!  Don’t worry, soon we’ll look forward.   With the 1st basemen, you’ll (maybe) notice that I’m a lot closer in my rankings and predictions for these guys as compared to the catchers.  This is to be expected.  1st basemen are usually guys in the middle of the lineups that produce every year; catchers are a crapshoot for hitting.  Okay, enough about catchers.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 1st basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:

1. Albert Pujols -  With or without a major league capable hitter behind him… With or without a working elbow tendon… None of it seemed to matter to Pujols.  Preseason Rank #1, 2009 Projections:  105/35/110/.335/5, Final Numbers:  124/47/135/.327/16

2. Prince Fielder – Here’s what I said in January of last year, “I’ve seen the big man falling into the third round of some drafts.  Makes me feel like I need to clear something up.  We’re drafting for 2009, not for what he did in 2008.   Sure, Berkman had a great 2008, but he’s hardly just entering his prime.  Yes, Fielder is the world’s fattest 24-year-old vegetarian and we should be worried about his general health when he’s in his 30s and needs a crane to get him to 1st base, but right now….”  And that’s me quoting me!  Preseason Rank #5, 2009 Projections:  85/40/110/.285, Final Numbers:  103/46/141/.299/2

3. Ryan Howard – I can predict his numbers in February with a blindfold on.  Sure, a blindfold doesn’t impede my ability to think about what Howard will hit, but you get my drift.  Preseason Rank #3, 2009 Projections:  100/45/140/.265, Final Numbers:  105/45/141/.279/8

4. Miguel Cabrera – He threw in an inconsequential 6 steals to help boost his value a bit.  Otherwise, he fell short of mine and just about everyone’s projections, taking a step back in power.  The RBIs were down, which was due to Leyland’s inability to find a decent #3 hitter.  Clete Thomas saw 146 at-bats in the three hole and hit .205.  I believe Clete hit third simply because his first name sounds basebally.  Preseason Rank #2, 2009 Projections:  100/39/125/.305, Final Numbers:  96/34/103/.324/6

5. Mark Reynolds – Everyone was saying 3rd base was extremely shallow.  And it was.  So what do you do when something’s shallow?  You either reach or you punt.  At some point in March, I decided to punt 3rd basemen in all of my leagues.  I wasn’t drafting high enough to get Wright (phew), Aramis had too many question marks for where he was being drafted and I wasn’t thrilled with Chris Davis as an upside pick.   So going through all of the potential upside picks in the later rounds, there was only one player that could give me 30 homers and 10 steals.  Actually, the more I looked at him, the more I couldn’t understand why he was being drafted so late.  Was he that different than Chris Davis?  So in every single league, I drafted this guy — Mini-Donkey.  (He acquired 1st base eligibility during the season.)  Ranked 14th for 3rd basemen, 2009 Projections:  75/31/100/.255/7, Final Numbers:  98/44/102/.260/24

6. Mark Teixeira – If I would’ve known exactly how the new Yankee Stadium would play — The Jetstream… Slide, Slide, slippity slide… — I probably would’ve guessed Tex could’ve done much more damage.  But I didn’t, and he didn’t.  Preseason Rank #4, 2009 Projections:  85/40/110/.285, Final Numbers:  103/39/122/.292/2

7. Derrek Lee – His season flummoxed me to a degree.  I didn’t see him exploding for the power he did.  I thought he still had some speed in his giraffe legs.  On the other hand, when he started poor (April — 1HR, .189), I pushed people to buy into a rebound.  Six of one, you know the rest.  Preseason Rank #11, 2009 Projections:  95/22/90/.295/8, Final Numbers:  91/35/111/.306/1

8. Kendry Morales – I liked him coming into the year, but even I didn’t think he had this many homers in his bat, which makes me think he might be overrated next year, but until then… Preseason Unranked, but he did get a Sleeper Post, Final Numbers:  86/34/108/.306/3

9. Pablo Sandoval – Went over him in the recap in the top 20 catchers.  (He acquired 1st base eligibility during the season.)  Ranked #13 for Catchers, 2009 Projections:  60/14/65/.300, Final Numbers:  79/25/90/.330/5

10. Kevin Youkilis – The nice thing about Youuuuuk is his predictability.  Will he hit 25 homers and bat near .300?  Yup, probably.  As with everyone, the RBIs and Runs are products of his environment.  But even those stats are usually right in line with his norms.  Death, taxes and Youk. Preseason Rank #9, 2009 Projections:  95/25/110/.295, Final Numbers:  99/27/94/.305/7

11. Joey Votto – For huge periods of 2009, Votto was a complete Failicorn.  And… Wait, needs to be bigger…  AND he still produced.  I’m very excited about Votto for 2010.  Preseason Rank #10, 2009 Projections:  85/28/100/.300/12, Final Numbers:  82/25/84/.322/4

12. Adrian Gonzalez – Imagine a world where there’s a new episode of The Wire on every night of the week, every meal consists of pork by-products in a tube shape and Adrian Gonzalez plays anywhere but Petco (and Metco).  Oh, and we all live in igloos made of grape ice pops.  Ah, yes, I like that. Preseason Rank #8, 2009 Projections:  85/34/95/.280, Final Numbers:  90/40/99/.277/1

13. Victor Martinez – Went over him in the recap in the top 20 catchers.  (He acquired 1st base eligibility during the season.)  Ranked #4 for Catchers, 2009 Projections:  65/18/95/.300, Final Numbers:  88/23/108/.303/1

14. Michael Cuddyer – Confession… Forgive me, Razzball Reader, but I wrote a good chunk of this post about two weeks ago.  At that point, Cuddyer was ranked 20th.  It didn’t help that Carlos Pena and Morneau were injured and Helton’s life-sized portrait of himself began to rapidly age, but it’s fair to say Cuddyer ended his season really well.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  93/32/94/.276/6

15. Adam Dunn – Two donkeys, one list.  Yeehaw!  (He acquired 1st base eligibility during the season.)  Ranked #23 for Outfielders, 2009 Projections:  80/40/85/.245/5, Final Numbers:  81/38/105/.267

16. Todd Helton – Eh, there’s guys below Helton I would’ve taken in his stead.  Morneau, Pena and Butler for stead sake.  Helton did have a much more productive season in 2009 than I thought he was capable of.  His numbers at 1st are still kinda yawnstipating.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  79/15/86/.325

17. Billy Butler – 51 doubles at the age of 23 is something to get very excited about.  I’ve already talked about him a bit for 2010.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see an Edgar Martinez-type season from him next year.  That is a big compliment.  Butler was in the preseason cheap alternatives post, where I said, “Bust can refer to Butler’s major league career thus far or his moobs….  Potential for 20 HRs and a .300 average.”  And that’s me quoting me!  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  78/21/93/.301/1

18. Justin Morneau – I’ve never drafted Morneau on any team in any league ever — yes, I remember these types of things and forget loved ones’ birthdays.  I don’t avoid Morneau as much as I never see 3rd round value in a 1st baseman that is going to max out around 30 homers.  Weird that he plays in Minnesota because he gets big city hype every year.  Somewhere Wheelock Whitney, Jr. smiles. Preseason Rank #7, 2009 Projections:  90/27/115/.285, Final Numbers:  85/30/100/.274

19. Paul Konerko – Konerko’s one of those late round corner men that is always welcome in deep leagues and always ignored in shallow ones.  He falls between the cracks like C+ students.  He also showed up in the cheap alternatives post too with the aforementioned Moobs.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  75/28/88/.277/1

20. Carlos Pena – Led the AL in homers and missed about a month of the season.  Put that in your skull bong and smoke it.  Preseason Rank #14, 2009 Projections:  75/32/95/.265, Final Numbers:  91/39/100/.227/3

Chris Carpenter went five innings giving up no runs, allowing 4 baserunners, adding in 6 Ks, driving in 6 runs and five golden… rings.  12 runs for the Cards, but everyone was a ticker tease, except for Carpenter who pitchslapped Kip Wells.  LaRussa’s mind must be swimming with ideas….Do I hit him 8th?  7th?  Do I platoon him with Ankiel in the OF and have Ankiel come in for intentional walks?  Do I go with a Singapore Sling or an Old Fashioned?  Why is Dave Duncan looking at me?  Is my fly open?  How come no one read my book, Tonyball?  If I’m facing East, my hair should be facing West!  Why is it going South?!  If homeless people have no homes, why do they lug around so much junk?  Homeless people shouldn’t be pack rats!… Wow, there’s a lot swimming in Tony’s mind.  Interesting to peek into the mind of a genius, ain’t it?  Surprised he didn’t mention this is the last roundup of the year.  Ho-hum, so sad.  There will still be a new post every week day through the fall and winter, so check your separation anxiety at the door.  I’m still here.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Scott Baker – 5 IP, 0 ER.  His FIP last year was 3.79.  This year it was near 4.  So he was .20 off of last year.  He throws around 7 Ks per 9 innings.  So he’s good for about 155 Ks.  His Post-All-Star Break ERA was 3.39.  Guess what I’m saying is I’m going to predict next year he’ll pitch around a 3.75 ERA, good WHIP and solid Ks and he’ll be someone to look at as a third fantasy starter with number two upside and number four downside.  And in three months, I’ll quote that.

Orlando Cabrera – 2-for-5, 3 RBIs.  Behind the scenes of Razzball, I’m busy doing the top 20 recaps that will be coming your way over the next few weeks.  So O-Cab made it pretty high on the top 20 list for SSs.  I’m like, “Cool, he had a good 2nd half.”  He hit 4 homers and stole 6 bases while batting .296.  Okay, so he had a good two months?  Nope.  The shortstops are so shallow that a good five weeks is all it took.  Anyway, I’m jumping the gun, those recaps will be coming next week.

Delmon Young – 3-for-4 yesterday.  He’s batting .309 with one homer in September.  This is considered a good month for him.  Would I pickup Young off waivers next year?  Sure.  I wouldn’t draft him.  I’m not going to write someone off who’s only 24, but I’m at the point where I want to see something from Young before I take the gamble on him in 2010.  I mean, Ryan Raburn and Garrett Anderson are above Delmon Young on ESPN’s Player Rater.  Young’s the new blech.

Aaron Cook – 8 IP, 1 ER, 2 Ks.  It’s Rocktober.

Tim Lincecum – 7 IP, 2 ER.  I’m giving him the Cy Young.  He threw more innings than Carpenter, way more Ks and he’s dazzling.  I know, it’s tough to judge dazzling, but if you’ve ever watched Lincecum pitch you know what I mean.  It’s kinda like a choice between the crazy hot girl that would cheat on you and the sweet girl that would make a nice mother.  I’m taking the crazy hot girl.  For what it’s worth, I think the voters go with Carpenter.  What’s a shame in all of this is Wainwright’s getting totally ignored.  Maybe I just have a special kinship to Wainwright because I own him on a few teams and I pushed many people to draft him this year.

Mark Reynolds – 1-for-4, up to 215 Ks.  This last month (4 homers, 2 steals, .187) is why I’m going to probably take a pass on Reynolds if people are grabbing him in the top 50.  I saw value in him when people were drafting him around 200.  I see very little value for next year.  What do you want, I’m frugal.  It’s a recession after all.

Dan Haren – 6 IP, 5 ER, 7 Ks.  Ends the season with a 3.14 ERA and a 4.44 ERA in the 2nd half.  The good news is his next start is scheduled for the 1st half.

Derrek Lee – Scratched for personal reasons.  Maybe he has crabs.

John Lackey – 2 IP, 2 ER and 40 pitches.  This is about what you can expect from starters who are headed to the playoffs. I wouldn’t expect more than 5 innings from any of them.  This is a shout out to you Hamels owners.

Kevin Millwood – 9 IP, 2 ER, 10 Ks.  And this is what to expect from pitchers facing teams headed to the playoffs.

Chris Davis – 3-for-5, and hit his 21st homer of the year.  I can’t wait to see what Bill James predicts for Chris Davis for 2010.  No sarcasm there, really interested.

Cliff Lee – 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 6 Ks.  The Adverb finishes with a 3.39 ERA for Philly.

Kendry Morales – Hit his 34th homer yesterday.   The best case scenario would be the Angels are eliminated quickly from the playoffs.  Worst case scenario is, in late-October, Joe Buck saying something like, “America’s getting a firsthand look at what Kendry Morales has been doing all year.”  Then Tim McCarver says, “Good thing there weren’t more men on base when Mt. Everest erupted cause then there would be more runs.”

Dexter Fowler had a .394 OBP in almost 1300 minor league at-bats.  In his first big league season, he has a .371 OBP (through whenever I wrote this).  I’m focusing on OBP  because you’d like to have your speedsters on base… *cough* Taveras *cough*   Is Fowler capable of 50+ steals?  I suppose, but I wouldn’t count on that.  No Sir Ree Bob.  (BTW, I like the Urban Dictionary examples for No Sir Ree Bob.  I don’t remember that conversation happening between the Iraqi Information Minister and George W. Bush, but I don’t pay too much attention to politics.)  I’d optimistically predict 35+ steals, 10+ homers and a .285 average.  Shane Victorino called, he wants his stats back, but Andrew McCutchen picked up the phone to say Dexter was in the shower.  I have no idea what’s going on there.  Now, Victorino is a top twenty outfielder, so that’s Fowler’s upside.  For the price you can probably keep Dexter, it makes him well worth the risk.  I’m not saying keep him over Miguel Cabrera.  Please, we’re talking within reason.  Anyway, here’s some more fantasy baseball keepers for 2010:

Kendry Morales – This year he’s been nearly as valuable as Mark Teixeira.  Zoinks!

Eric Young Jr. – We started this sucker with a Rockie and, Harang nabbit, we’re gonna finish it with one. So Junior’s not really getting any playing time right now, but this isn’t about this year, is it? Rhetorical! 2010 should be Young’s year to shine and when he shines he’ll be doing it with 40+ steals. For a guy that you can probably keep on the super cheap in deep leagues, that’s a lovely thing. Not a Lovey thing, that’s J.P. Howell’s Mom.