Fantasy Baseball Advice

With our commenter leagues sign ups in full swing, we decided to look at different fantasy baseball league formats.  Most fantasy baseball league providers (inc. ESPN, Yahoo!, CBSSports.com) offer a number of league formats.  This post is a quick primer on how to find the league format that best fits you.

League Depth

The two biggest decisions when creating or joining a fantasy league are:  1) Drafting from MLB rosters vs. AL/NL-only and 2) Number of Teams.

There is no one right choice.  If you are playing with a group of friends/colleagues, the first thing you need to consider is their baseball knowledge and dedication level.  If you have a number of novices, skip past AL/NL only and go to MLB.  I’d suggest either a 10 or 12 team MLB league.  If your friends/colleagues are more advanced, I’d consider 14-16 team MLB leagues.  Of course, this depends on whether you can wrangle up enough people.  If you can’t, I’d generally stick with 10 or 12 team MLB over AL/NL-only unless everyone is really on board.  If you only have 8 teams, I would do AL/NL-only.

If you are looking to join a new league, you can be more selfish and think about your strengths and what you enjoy.  If you really enjoy combing the free agent wire and churning through your roster, your best bet is shallow leagues (10-12 MLB).  If your interest level peaks in March but you really like draft strategy and player valuation, go with a deeper league (14+ team MLB, 10-12 AL/NL-only).  Just realize that deeper leagues require both a broader knowledge of MLB players and the ability to find pleasure in owning mediocre to below average players.  Here’s a quick illustration of the projected ‘replacement 3B’ (e.g., best player not drafted and available as a free agent) in all the league formats (Runs/HR/RBI/SBs/AVG).  Note that AL-only is more shallow than NL-only because there are two less teams in the AL.

10-team MLB: Chase Headley (71/14/71/13/.263)
12-team MLB: Danny Valencia (62/12/69/5/.283)
14-team MLB:  Edwin Encarnacion (70/25/74/3/.246)
16-team MLB: Wilson Betemit (63/17/72/3/.263)
8-team NL:  Chipper Jones (65/15/65/4/.280)
8-team AL: Kevin Kouzmanoff (53/16/64/2/.252)
10-team NL: Brooks Conrad (33/8/33/4/.241)
10-team AL: Mark Teahen (38/7/34/4/.259)
12-team NL: Mat Gamel (26/7/30/2/.256)
12-team AL: Omar Vizquel (32/3/29/7/.244)*

* My AL-only team got so decimated with injuries that I had Vizquel starting for most of the 2nd half.  It’s sad when you do a Tiger Woods fist-pump for a 1-for-4 day with a run.

Daily vs. Weekly Roster Changes + Free Agency

The decision behind daily/weekly roster changes and how to handle Free Agency are inter-related.  If you are an active player, you likely want a Daily league where there is no cost (either actual $ or symbolic $) to picking up free agents.  You also want the ability to rotate in bench players if your starters have an off day.  I generally recommend this format for 10-12 team mixed leagues.

In deeper leagues, there are fewer impactful free agents.  Allowing free pickups can dramatically alter a season and can be very frustrating for those that played the deeper format in search of more strategy.  Most AL/NL-only leagues go with a fixed FAAB (Free Agency Acquisition Budget) that allow players to go to the highest bidder (vs. the quickest bidder).  This can be managed on a daily basis but tends to be easier to manage on a weekly basis.  I would recommend a weekly/FAAB approach for AL/NL-only leagues.  Depending on the league, you can still have weekly free agency with daily roster changes.  Most expert players prefer weekly roster changes vs. daily.

For 14-16 MLB leagues, you can go with either approach.  I would generally recommend daily pickups/roster changes unless you have a lot of novices (the weekly FAAB lets the slower teams catch up).

Roster Positions

While the various league providers let you adjust rosters, I suggest using either:  1) C/1B/2B/SS/3B/5 OF/CI/MI/UTIL/9 P or 2) The same as #1 except 2 catchers.

I prefer either of these formats as they tends to pull evenly across all major league positions.  Assuming your CI and MI are equally divided amongst 1B/3B and 2B/SS, this format nets out to the following per team (before you start filling up UTIL and Bench spots):  1.5 1B, 1.5 2B, 1.5 SS, 1.5 3B, 5 OF.  If you divided this against a real team’s starting lineup, you get 1.5 for all the infield spots and 1.66 for OF.  The one UTIL spot will generally pull from 1B and OF to drive those positions’ replacement level close to 2B/SS/3B.  (Note: Catchers are their own beast.  I don’t find much difference in 1 or 2 catcher leagues – I generally suggest sticking with one catcher for mixed league and two for AL/NL only (because that’s the default format for AL/NL-only).

The Yahoo! default format that has no CI/MI, 3 OF, and 2 UTIL is also proportional but I find it’s too shallow.  You’re basically losing 4 hitters per team (2 OF, CI, MI) and adding one UTIL.  This inflates the available free agents.  I would only suggest this if you have 14-16 teams but the players are very novice.

As for bench and DL, I recommend sticking with 3 bench and 1 DL for shallow leagues and 5-7 bench spots/1 DL for deeper leagues.  For deep leagues, it’s fun to use the bench for both necessary filler (e.g., a Brooks Conrad type that might give you something when your starter gets hurt) and prospect speculation (prospeculation?).  In shallow leagues, the free agency pool is so rich that deep benches only serve to frustrate active owners.  There is nothing worse than seeing potential free agent targets languishing on the bench of someone who checked out of the league.

Draft Type

The two primary draft formats are Snake (Team with #1 pick in 1st round has last pick in 2nd round and first pick again in 3rd round) and Auction.

The benefit of auction is that you could always get a certain player or players if you’re potentially willing to overbid.  You can, in effect, draft multiple first round picks although, since there’s a salary cap, this means you’re set for a top-heavy team – especially in deeper formats.  For those who prefer balance on their team, you have the opportunity to forgo expensive picks and build an extremely deep, well-rounded team.  In deeper formats, ‘well-rounded’ generally means that the majority of your players are set for 400+ ABs.  In shallower formats, it means that you were able to stock up on better starters that might have all been picked, say, before the 20th round.  There are a number of winning strategies for auction leagues but I’ll leave that for another post.

Much like with choosing the League Depth, this depends on the people in your league.  There is no reason to do auction with casual players.  Auctions are more difficult and lead to harsher penalties if they don’t show up to the draft (I personally love it when an expert skips a draft.  You can fill their roster up with a whole bunch of scrubs if you nominate marginal players that they value at more than $1).  I think auctions only start to make sense at 14-team MLB.  You want to get to the point where teams left with $1 per position have to take weak hitters/pitchers.

Scoring Format

There are two main scoring types:  Rotisserie and Points.  There are two scoring periods:  Head-to-Head (weekly) and Cumulative.

Rotisserie is the most common and my favorite.  I recommend this for the majority of leagues.

Points leagues are more fantasy footballesque.  I don’t like them because they do not penalize teams that are unbalanced.  You could draft a softball team and still do well because your extra power neutralizes your lack of speed.

The cumulative format (adding stats for the full year) is the default format for most rotisserie leagues and rewards the best player.  The disadvantage is that weaker teams may check out early.

Head-to-head might appeal to those that enjoy fantasy football and it’s a good idea for 12-team casual leagues as it allows the lesser players a chance for bragging rights (so maybe they will stay active a bit longer).  If you are a strong player, I think the randomness of week-to-week performance is more annoying than enjoyable.  There are weeks where you hit a ridiculous amount of HRs but you only get your one HR point and nothing carries over to the next week.  There is also the issue of ‘playoffs’ which – like in football – can turn a dream season to ruins because of a bad week.  If you are setting up a H2H league, you need to consider a weekly Games Started cap as a common practice is to continually churn through marginal pitchers to bulk up on Wins and Strikeouts.  I am not saying you have to place a GS cap – or that it has to be particularly constrictive – just that you have to consider it.

A head-to-head points league actually isn’t too bad for a casual league.  While points might not penalize unbalanced teams, it at least rewards your team more than 1 point if you have a massive week in power, speed, starting pitching, etc.

Keeper/Dynasty

If you are in a perennial league with friends/colleagues, the keeper format is a great idea – particularly for deeper leagues.  Generally, a team can keep 3-5 players.  It is recommended that there is an escalator in place to make sure that some players can’t hoard a player for eternity.  If you do a snake draft, you can allow someone to be kept at the round in which they were picked the previous year BUT, in future years, the round number would go up 5 rounds.  So if you snagged Jason Heyward last year in the 20th round, he will cost you a 1st round pick in 5 years.  If you do an auction draft, you can add $5 to the price every year until the player becomes cost-prohibitive and they have to release the player.

The great thing about keepers is that it can mirror the dynamics of a real pennant race.  Contending teams trade prospects to losing teams in exchange for veterans that can help now.  While this is great in theory, just realize this can also lead to extremely lopsided trades that might bruise leaguemates feelings (e.g., here are all the good players on my team for 1-2 prospects because my team is in 10th and what do i have to lose?).  If you are going to do a keeper league, you may want to find an arbiter who can come up with a fair way to determine if trades are fair.

Colby Rasmus goes by the nickname Razz or Razzle-Dazzle, which should make him a favorite here at Razzball, but there’s something pricky about him that I don’t like.  Might be the name, Colby.  It sounds like a total douche name, like a character’s name in a Bret Easton Ellis novel.  (Speaking of douche, I have two things to say.  First, I went to the original Dollar Store the other day.  No, not some weird field trip.  Like, “Hey, honey, you wanna go check out the very first Dollar Store? There’s tours at 12 and 2.  Oddly enough, not at 1.”  I was walking by it and I went in to grab a Gatorade.  The store was extremely small and there’s a giant one across the street.  So I ask them why don’t they close up this stankhole of dollar-priced items.  They tell me it’s the first store ever.  Yeah, it’s a real historic landmark.  Put up a plaque and add this to the World Famous Skyline Tour.  “On the right is the Hollywood Sign.  On the left is where they sold the very first discontinued-candy-that-might-get-you-sick-but-at-least-it’s-only-a-dollar.”  So what do I see in the dollar store, besides the aforementioned discontinued candy?  Summer’s Eve Douche.  I tell you this because I’ve been trying to think of what kind of woman buys douche at the Dollar Store for three days now.  I want you to be scarred too.  So there.  Okay, second thing, doesn’t it seem like the word “douche” should have an accent?)  Anyway, the real question is, will Colby Rasmus have any fantasy value in 2009?

Okay, I lied.  The real-real question is, will Rasmus win the starting job in 2009 for the Cards?  He might.  In February of 2008, the Cards GM said Rasmus will be in the majors in 2008.  A funny thing happened on the way to The Gateway to the West.  Rasmus sucked down a big bottle of Mediocre in the spring of 2008 and then went down with a knee injury in July.  He skipped out on winter ball, choosing to do his own strength and conditioning program (Beer and German pretzels?).  The good news is his knee should be healed in time for the spring of 2009.  Rasmus still has the skills of someone who can run, homer and strikeout with the best of them. To give you an idea of what to expect, if you’re showing Colby Rasmus and the dealer shows Krispie Young, that’s a push. His value could go up in the April, if he leaves spring training with a starting OF job.  In NL-Only and keeper leagues, you should pursue Colby Rasmus right now as a late round sleeper.  In mixed leagues, wait to see if he has the job in spring training.  If he does, then you should be buying in too.

Jason Heyward, besides having the surname of a 1930s matinee idol, has the mitts of a Yeti and the sturdies (<– that’s legs) of Frank Thomas.  His man gams are 117% oak.  You thought Jay Bruce could fight crime? Heyward just saved your life and you didn’t even know you were in danger. Look over your left shoulder — quickly!  See that shadow shrinking out of the room?  That was Heyward.  He’s now going to Ireland to sing harmony with that Once guy.  So being a globetrotting, harmonizing, crime fighting love child of a Yeti and Frank Thomas is all well-and-good, but can the the Braves outfield prospect, Jason Heyward, help you in fantasy baseball leagues in 2009?

Nope.  But… You said he was Yeti-like! Sorry, random italicized voice, it’s a bummer. I know.  So you’re probably thinking to yourself why am I even talking about him? (Yes, I can read your mind. Spooky, huh?)  Firstly, when I decided to go over 2009 fantasy rookies — Wait, you don’t need to know it from the jump, as the kids said in the early naughts. Fast forward to my reasoning… Twenty-seventhly, Heyward is going to be something special probably as soon as 2010.  This is a wake up call for all keeper leagues, NL-Only and mixed ones.  You know all that power and speed you love about The Uptons?  Heyward has that in duckets.  He’s my early 2010 NL ROY frontrunner and should be owned in all keeper leagues.  You want a prediction limb? Heyward goes 25/15 in his first full season with the Braves and he invents a Snuggie that doesn’t look quite as monk-like.

Schadenfreude has me tuned to The Pickup Artist every Sunday night. C’mon, Simeon, neg the target! Schadenfreude had me floating on a cloud for two days last week after I saw pictures from an old high school buddy’s wedding. He got fat and bald! Ha! I’m in shape and I have my hair!  So schadenfreude should have me thrilled to see Utley with an injury. Unfortunately, Chase Utley is different. Chase’s injury leaves me with no joy. You know how you use words when you’re writing that you would never say in real life? Well, I’m unabashedly a fan of Chase Utley, and I don’t think I’ve ever said “unabashedly” in real life. This Buick is unabashedly economical! But that’s how much I like Utley, I can’t express my love for him in words I normally use.  Is this because I know Utley loves him some hookers? That can’t hurt, but it’s more than that. It’s more than his slicked-back, I’m-Tom-Cruise-in-The-Color-of-Money douchebag hair and his cooler-than-Eckstein hustle.  It’s… Maybe it’s his love for hookers. Either way, his injury could have him out until June of 2009. If you’re keeping him with a price tag higher than $25, you really need to reevaluate your Chase Utley keeper situation, right? Well, when he broke his hand in 2007, he bounced back quicker than anyone thought was possible. Can he do the same with this hip injury? He’s got the mettle. (There I go again using a word I would never use in everyday conversation.)

Hey, yo, Bo knows this and Bo knows that, but Bo don’t know Jack because Bo don’t know when Utley’s going to be back… So yo, yo, what’s the best case scenario? Everyone seems to think the injury to Chase’s hip will keep him out of any baseball-related activities until at least mid- to late-March aka the end of 2009 Spring Training. Let’s give him two weeks later to be safe. Then he needs at least two weeks to get up to speed. That means we’ll see Utley at the beginning of May at the earliest. This wouldn’t kill Utley’s production for 2009, but it might hurt the perception of his value in 2009. So, for the first time in a while, Utley could actually come as a bargain. I imagine he’ll fall to the late second or third rounds of early 2009 drafts. If you’re not drafting until March, then there’s a good chance we’ll have a better idea when exactly Utley will return and his value will either rise or fall. Right now, I want Utley in the second round.  Remember in the preseason of 2008 when ‘perts were comparing Pujols to Jim Abbott? Remember what that did to his draft value? Yeah, and he just won the NL MVP. For keepers, it depends on your situation, but I’d still look to hold onto Utley for 2009. He’ll still give you more than 99% of the other 2nd basemen, even if he misses a month. Anyway, here’s some more keepers or players to not keep for your fantasy baseball team in 2009:

KEEP

Carlos Marmol – When I went over the Gregg trade for fantasy, I mentioned that I thought Gregg might become the closer because Piniella might pull some boneheaded “experience matters” maneuver. That’s not to say Marmol won’t have value or won’t get plenty of saves, whether he has the job officially or not. Don’t forget, Gregg is garbage.  Even with Wood admirably holding down the closer job in Chicago last year, Marmol still came in 13th on the list of top 20 closers for 2008.

DON’T KEEP

Joe Saunders – If keeping Saunders causes you to have an erection longer than thirty seconds, you should see a doctor.

If Sergio Valente were a person and not just a clothing brand name and if he played fantasy baseball and owned Garrett Atkins in 2008, he might’ve said, “Garrett Atkins, you looks like craps. You know that?” (Valente talks with a bit of an accent.) Valente was right with his fictitious assessment. Atkins did “looks” like “craps” in 2008. But 2008 was sooooo last year like Joaquin Phoenix’s acting career. Let’s look at 2009. Can Atkins turn around on a fastball in 2009? Can Atkins stick in the third spot in the Rockies order now that Holliday’s gone? Will Atkins even stay with the Rockies? Does Atkins have too much pepper on his paprikash? Not to repeat, but to answer. Atkins numbers for 2008 look like this 86/21/99/.286/1 or as I like to call those stats, “Injured Scott Rolen Numbers.” But what about Atkins in 2009? Can’t a brother get a second chance? I suppose. (God, knows I’m willing to give Alex Rios a second chance in 2009.) As I said in our Fantasy Baseball Forums, “Atkins is a 17/80 player outside of Coors and he could get traded. There’s lots of third basemen that would be an upgrade over him even if he stays in Coors. He’s more the player he was in 2008 than he was in 2006.”  And that’s me quoting me! I go on to talk about how his OPS keeps dipping and his Away OPS is the “craps.” In certain situations, Atkins may be a keeper for you (think real deep leagues where you have limited choices), but, for most, Atkins is not a fantasy baseball keeper for 2009. Anyway, here’s some more keepers or players to not keep for your fantasy baseball team in 2009:

KEEP

Aaron Hicks – This is a very deep league keeper, but I just had to write his name. Aaron Hicks…. Look at that, I just wrote it again. It may not be until 2010 or even 2011, but in deep leagues that holds minor leaguers, Aaron Hicks is a keeper. He’s going to be a young Daryl Strawberry (minus the coke), according to Baseball America. (They didn’t mention the coke part.)

Logan Morrison – Logan Morrison is a raw, powerful first baseman. Member how the Marlins shipped off Jacobs to make room for Cantu? Well, don’t expect Cantu to stay around that long. His salary might go above one million at some point. Marlins have no problem promoting people so keep your eye on Morrison for 2009, and, in deep keeper leagues, he’s a good one to hold onto.

DON’T KEEP

Michael Young – As far as empty average doodes go, Young isn’t that bad. Then again, a sudden heart attack isn’t a bad way to die either, but you’re still dead if you catch my drift.