Fantasy Baseball Advice

The Disgraceful List claimed two more yesterday, Josh Beckett and Grady Sizemore.  Neither is a big surprise.  Closest Grady Sizemore came to taking off this year was in his amateur Playgirl shoot.  Even when he hit a home run, the rain washed it away.  The Indians are talking about knee surgery for Grady.  Turns out Tom Sizemore isn’t the only Sizemore with a joint problem.  I’d DL Sizemore until more news surfaces, but, if recent history is any indication, new news (stutter much?) will be bad news.  As for Josh Beckett, I’m more optimistic.  He can miss a few weeks, put this back injury behind him (literally!) and return.  Will he be effective on his return?  What, I’m Nostradumbass?  I don’t know, but it’s possible he has a decent half season.  I wouldn’t trade for him, but I would pick him up off waivers and stash him.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Psyche!  Before I jump into the roundup, quick bit of business.  No one likes to have to ask for shizz, but this voting thing at the Refresh Challenge is for a good cause.  To up the stakes, we’re donating a $100 gift card to Wal-Mart.  All you have to do is vote and comment “Razzball” over at the voting site.  The comment names will be chosen at random on Monday and the winner will be announced here.  That link again is http://pep.si/abEtbm — Wow, I feel like George Clooney.  Anyway II, here’s the roundup:

Trevor Hoffman – Probably should be headed to the Disgraceful List but in the meantime the Brewers say he won’t pitch for a few days while he works on his mechanics.  Carlos Villanueva and Todd Coffey are the pickups, in that order.  Or the reverse order if you’re dyslexic.

Ike Davis – 1-for-4.  For the foreseeable future, Manuel says Davis will be the cleanup hitter.  I like how Manual makes these announcements every few days.  First, Reyes will bat 3rd, then Chris Carter will bat cleanup, now Ike.  Waiting for the announcement where he says New Era will bat cleanup only later to realize he pulled the tag out of the hat.

Livan Hernandez – 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 2 Ks.  It’s May 20th and Livan’s ERA is still 1.62.  I will now go drink cyanide.

Drew Storen – 2/3 IP and the Win.  After the game, Clippard told Storen, “You’re welcome.”

Clay Buchholz – 8 IP, 2 ER, 6 baserunners, 7 Ks.  Said I thought Buchholz could be the Sawx’s ace this year, he’s only confirmed my thoughts.  Really² loved Buchholz coming into this year, but didn’t end up with him on any team.  I was Buch-blocked.

David Ortiz – 1-for-4 with his 4th homer in his last 6 games as he bats .248.  Ortiz is no longer *pinkie to mouth* ice Papi.  Think this is the new Ortiz, homers and not much else.  His name garners more attention than he actually warrants.  If you own him, I’d see what he could get you on the trade market.

Joe Mauer – 1-for-4 with his 1st steal of the season.  Also, he has 2 homers on the year.  Haven’t mentioned much about this because I spend enough time telling you people my correct preseason calls, but Mauer’s power has gone sour.  Told ya!

Carlos Zambrano – 1/3 IP.  Yeah, that’s how you stretch him out.  Niiiiice.

Kaz Matsui – The Astros released him.  It’s the youth movement in Houston as they turn to Jeff Keppinger.

Carlos Lee – Hit his 3rd homer in four days.  Carlos wasn’t happy at all about me saying his days were numbered, obvious lee.

Josh Hamilton – 2-for-4 with one home run while he was robbed of another home run because the ump missed the call and refused to review the replay.  Seriously, what’s the point of having replay if they’re not going to use it?  Umps are useless.  Get a real job, like writing a fantasy baseball blog.

Aroldis Chapman – Left his minor league game with a blister.  Wait until he sees how our health care compares to Cuba’s.

Milton Bradley – 2-for-4 as the Golden Glove outfielder returned to the Mariners.  In the postgame press conference, he thanked his family for their support, saying he was a humbler, changed man.  Then a reporter interrupted him and Milton Hulk-smashed the reporter’s head into a locker.

Michael Saunders – Sat out yesterday in favor of Bradley and could be in for a major reduction of time until Milton loses his shizz and karate kicks Figgy for looking at him the wrong way.  I give it a week.

Casper Wells – Who?  The guy Leyland put in the three hole.  Will someone please buy Leyland some blank lineup cards so he doesn’t have to hit Casper Wells third simply because he’s filling in for Magglio Ordonez?

Freddy Sanchez – 0-for-4.  Never been a fan Freddy Sanchez, but at MI he can provide very modest power and average.  Outside of NL-Only leagues, I’d look just about anywhere else first, but there ya go.

Ian Kennedy – 8 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 9 Ks.  I’ve touted him enough by this point, right?  You don’t need me to go on any further, do you?

Mark Reynolds – 0-for-4 as the Diamondbacks scored 13 runs.  Ticker tease!

Wade Davis – 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 10 baserunners, 7 Ks.  Was a decent start for the youngster vs. the Yanks. (Look at me, I’m an oldster, saying things like youngster.)  In 8 starts, he’s only gone longer than 6 innings once.  His WHIP isn’t pretty either, mostly because his walks are a bit out of control.  I’d let someone else deal with his potential/potential headache.

Jorge Posada – Will miss up to a month with a fractured foot.  Or as they say in England, a fractured meter.  If your DL slots are limited, I wouldn’t stress over holding onto Posada.  He’s still just a catcher.  Filling in for him…

Francisco Cervelli – Hasn’t done much except hit for average, but he’s done that well.  Now hitting .373 on the year.  Oh, and hat tip to frequent commenter, Buge Hoobs, who pointed out how much Cervelli looks like The Great Gazoo.

Will Venable – 4-for-5, 4 Runs, 1 RBI and a steal.  Huge game, but he sits against most lefties and he’s batting .248 on the year.  Best case scenario, he gets 12 homers, 25 steals and a poor average on the year.  It’s okay in NL-Only leagues, but I wouldn’t go crazy in mixed leagues.

Kerry Wood – 1/3 IP, 5 ER for an epic, glove-tossing meltdown.  Good to see Wood picked up right where he left off.  I wouldn’t drop Chris Perez just yet.  And if he’s out there on waivers, I’d grab him.

Lou Marson – Stole his 3rd base to open up the lead between him and Alcides.

Mike Aviles – 3-for-5, with a Run and RBI.  He’s been admittedly underrepresented in my roundups, but I find straight average guys yawnstipating.  Aviles is, however, batting .390.  There’s room for that on some teams.

Randy Wolf – 6 1/3 IP, 6 ER, 15 baserunners, 3 Ks.  Now has a 5.10 ERA on the year.  Right now, I wouldn’t own Wolf with your team.

Nate McLouth – 2-for-4 with a steal.  He’s actually been hitting recently (.300 in his last 7 games), but he’s also batting 8th, which in an NL lineup is death, not depth.  Unless your league is deep, I’d just watch McLousy for now to see if he moves up the lineup.

Cameron Maybin – 2-for-5 with his 2nd homer in 2 games.  It took freakin’ forever, but Maybin seems like he might stick around in the majors for a little while.  Could be a photo finish in Florida between Coghlan and Ross for Stanton’s playing time.  Better make sure you punch out those Chads.

Anibal Sanchez – 7 IP, 0 ER, 6 baserunners, 8Ks.  Has looked good for a few starts in a row now with a 3.28 ERA on the year.  But his last six starts have been against the Giants, Mets, Padres, Astros, Nats and a very cold Cards team.  I could have an under 4 ERA against those teams.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia – Going to see a psychologist to deal with his inability to throw the ball back to the pitcher.  It’s the yips (which only sounds racist).  This reminds of the time I was at Benihana and the chef missed his hat with a shrimp tail three times in a row.  The Benihana’s chef’s name was Mackey Sasser.

Stealing is like borrowing until it becomes permanent. I don’t steal; it’s immoral, reprehensible and I’m really out of shape so I’d probably get caught. The fact of the matter is that these guys aren’t for everyone.  They shouldn’t be, but they will give you the all coveted stat:  steals.  These players should only be considered if you are in need of steals after your draft, 12 teams or deeper.  In H2H leagues, these players are especially important if you’re trying beat an opponent and only need a few quick “pick me up” steals.

Chris Getz – Yeah, this list is not exciting.  This KC middle infielder is horrible. I have shown him love in 16-20 team leagues. With  Aviles’ iffy elbow, he may be only shining light not named Yuniesky.

Kaz Matsui - On the down side of career, was there ever an up? Still has legs, which may get you 18-22 steals. With an OPS of 625, which is what Pujols slugs.

Eugenio Velez – Needs to find a spot somewhere.  Maybe he sent a poison Edible Arrangement™ to Fred Lewis. 400 abs might give you 20 snatches. I like that word for SB’s.

Luis Castillo – I know what you’re saying, he is horrible, and you’re right.  Sorta. Can help with steals while not demolishing BA.

Cliff Pennington – Sounds like an insurance salesman. Has the gig at short for the ‘tics.  Prolly the best guy on this list so far as potential.

Coco Crisp – 450 ABs easy and a 10/20 season.  It ain’t glamorous, but these steal guys rarely are.

Michael Brantley – Could actually get drafted in a 12 team. I like this kid, reminds me of The Big FraGu last year.

Eric Young – May start season on bench or in AAA, which is the place for really, really bad drinkers. Awesome speed potential.  Barmes needs to fall down some stairs for him to have a shot.

Brendan Ryan – Seriously, Julio Lugo. Good potential for a MI spot league if you get a stud early. Could do worse, the Cliff Pennington of the NL.

Austin Jackson – May struggle early.  Given 400 abs could go 8/15, with a ton of runs leading off.

Will Venable – Quietly will hit 6th for the Friars.  Decent pop last year should carry over, who doesn’t like the son of a Max. 10/15 very attainable.

Who doesn’t love to show their frenemies their fantasy baseball teams in October and say, “Look at what I won with?”  Then they see Juan Uribe and they’re confounded, “How did you win with Juan Uribe?”  That is the secret to fantasy baseball in September.  If you win your league, I guarantee someone will look at your team at the end of the year and be completely confused by some of the guys you own.  Cliff Pennington?  Robinson Tejeda?  Did the other teams in your league quit? No, you’re playing hot guys.  This is imperative at this time of the year.  Imperative is the important word to know.  Juan Uribe has not only been incredibly hot, but Uribe will confound your frenemies!  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Juan Francisco – If I had to take a wild guess, I think Francisco will (try to) man the hot corner in the 2nd half of 2010 after the Reds unload Rolen for spare parts.  I say (try to) because Dusty doesn’t always play rookies.  Also, Francisco’s no guarantee.  He feels a bit to me like Troy Glaus, or even Chris Davis without the Bill James-inspired optimism, i.e., he strikes out nearly once per game and doesn’t walk enough.  He could provide some pop in deep NL-Only keepers.  This isn’t for you, mixed leaguers.

Robinson Tejeda – Wouldn’t be surprised if February Grey has nice things to say about Tejeda.

Ryan Rowland-Smith – He’s been good for a while now.  Like, the whole season.  So is Rowland his maiden name?

Vicente Padilla – After you read Uribe and now Padilla, I’m sure many of you are going to skim the rest of the post.  I don’t blame you.

Kevin Jepsen – SAGNOF!

Dan Wheeler – Could be the closer, but the Rays haven’t had a save since August.  It’s kinda not worth it, but if you’re in a pinch then I’d look at Wheeler since Maddon has said Howell and Balfour are on restrictions (bed by 9, no carbs and a low pitch count) for the rest of the season.

Matt LaPorta – Look at his last week of stats.  Yes, the MLP Package is finally on.

Drew Stubbs – Showing a bunch of power for a guy who looks like he wouldn’t be able to open the pickle jar.

Casey Blake – Currently murdering the ball like his brother, Robert… Well, you get it.

Brett Gardner – The Yankees are coasting into the ‘offs and Gardner could see an increase in playing time.  That means steals.

Kaz Matsui – Obviously, he’s the less glamorous of the Matsuis (Matsuii?) with a markedly smaller porn collection — buy at least a raincoat, man — but no hitter has been hotter over the past week.

Cliff Pennington – Batting near .400 over the last week with a homer and a steal.  And he sounds like a villain from an 80s movie — You spilled beer on my Izod!

Nick Swisher – Nick, your sideburns were just a crutch. Thank you, random italicized voice!

SELL

Yovani Gallardo – If you’re moving in the Tejedas and Uribes, you need to make room.  Gallardo is getting shutdown.  But he doesn’t wanna!  Yeah, that’s nice.  He should’ve been shut down a month ago.  Now I’m worried about him for next year because of all of his innings this year.  See, now you done worried me.

Chipper Jones – Lose the Glass Chipper.

B.J. Upton – Who’s the Boss?  Apparently, not the Bossman.

Rich Harden – Hasn’t been good recently and now he’s getting skipped.  I’m sure there’s better options out there.

Josh Hamilton – I don’t enjoy being right when I say a player is going to fail and they do.  Okay, let me rephrase that.  I do enjoy being right when I say someone is going to fail and they do.  There, that’s better.

Daisuke Matsuzaka returned from his bout of Terriblitis to pitch effectively vs. the Angels. 6 IP, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks. He almost looked as good as when he won the MVP of the World Baseball Classic.   Ah, yes, Selig, it’s a brilliant idea.  We’re a global game now.  Next time I’m in Italy, my paisans and I will talk all about baseball over our Chianti.  I’m not a huge fan of Dice-K (the walks), but he was solid in his rehab stint and he does get the Orioles next.  That’s not a terrible match up.  I wouldn’t own him, but we can still get along if you do.  One love!  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Jake Peavy – The on again, on again, then off again, then briefly on, then briefly off, then on again comeback is on again for Saturday vs. the Royals.

Victor Martinez – Here’s an SAT question for you.  Martinez left the club for “personal reasons.”  Grey knows what it means when his girlfriend takes off a day from work for “personal reasons.” So this means that Martinez left the club because of what?

Michael Young – He kept saying he would return on Friday.  Then he returned yesterday.  Then he was lifted for a pinch hitter after one at-bat.  See what happens to liars.  He now says he really will be back this Friday.  Mmm-hmm.

Andy Pettitte – Will miss a start with a sore shoulder.  I wouldn’t be surprised if most of the Yankee team has a “sore shoulder” on and off for the next few weeks as they gear up for the playoffs.

Carlos Marmol – Piniella calls Marmol the closer for 2010.  With the amount of walks Marmol gives up, I don’t think Piniella should cancel the Milk of Magnesia bulk order just yet.

Tommy Hanson – 7 IP, 6 baserunners, 8 Ks and his 10th Win.  He has a 2.65 ERA on the year with nearly a K/IP.  He far exceeded my expectations for him or, really, any rookie pitcher.

Adam LaRoche – 4-for-4, 2 HRs yesterday.  Maybe if LaRoche starts playing in Venezuela in the winter, then by April he’ll think it’s the All-Star Break.

Matt Wieters – 3-for-4, 5 RBIs and a homer yesterday.  For everyone’s sake, hope he doesn’t have a great final three weeks, so people partially forget about him next year.

Geovany Soto – 2-for-5, 3 RBIs and a homer.  Speaking of catchers who drove you mad this year, Soto’s been hot in September, hitting over .350.

Yovani Gallardo - 5 1/3 IP, 7 ER, 12 baserunners.  YoGa, why do you stress me?  I would’ve totally accepted him getting scratched before this game rather than this start.

Robinson Tejada – 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 Ks.  He was highlighted in yesterday’s post about borderline starters.  You scroll down.  Also, it’s Ta-HEY-duh not Tay-HA-duh, but both are from Baní, Dominican Republic.  You think in Baní there’s a lot of people saying, “Is it hey or ha?”

Miguel Olivo – Hit his 20th homer yesterday.  He gets so incredibly hot when he’s actually hitting the ball and not striking out.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Olivo hits 5 more homers in the next two weeks.

Magglio Ordonez – Went 0-for-3 with a strikeout, but the 3 at-bats will mean he’ll make $18 million next year.  Just in case you wanted a reason to run into traffic.

Travis Snider – 2 HRs yesterday.  See about 4 1/2 inches above under Wieters for why we don’t want Snider to get too hot.  Unless, I guess, if you own him.  But that’s just selfish.  Think about us!

Nick Swisher – 6 for his last 13 with a homer as he hits over .300 in September.

Cliff Lee – The Adverb threw a shutout with 9 Ks vs. the Nationals.

David Ortiz – HR yesterday.  I don’t own him, so, honestly, I don’t pay too much attention to how poor Ortiz is hitting on a day-to-day basis.  But, with that said, he’s batting .233.  When he bats, the opposing team should move the left side of the infield into the dugout.

Roy Oswalt – 5 IP, 4 ER, 3 Ks vs. the Reds.  Charlie Hough wearing a Wolverine Mechanical Claw from Toys R Us could strike out 3 Reds.

Kaz Matsui – HR yesterday and has 4 steals in the last week.  I’m guessing here, but I betcha he’s going to be in Friday’s Buy/Sell.

Heath Bell – 1 IP, 2 ER and the Bell has tolled every time in his last three appearances, giving up 7 runs.  Meanwhile, Grey notices Luke Gregerson has 15 consecutive scoreless innings dating back a month.

Barry Zito – 7 IP, 2 ER, 9 Ks.  He gets the Diamondbacks next.  Not a terrible start, but he’ll be facing Haren.

Chipper Jones – Guess what?  Glass Chipper’s out for a few more days, might be longer.  Punt!

Carlos Beltran – 5-for-20, 1 homer, 2 RBIs, 0 steals and he’s sat out three games since his return.  Cust kayin’.

Francisco Rodriguez – Left the club to be with his wife as she gave birth.  This would’ve been so much easier if he would’ve just knocked up Aaron Hill’s wife.

Ah, May. The time when trees are in full bloom, birds return to sing a new spring song, and you look at your fantasy baseball team and think, Holy Crikey I’m stuck in eighth place and my top three picks all suck and my bullpen is a mess and boy oh boy do I need saves.

Well, guess what? Right now, there’s a creepy man outside your window, watching you weeping softly, and he’s thinking the very same thing. And you know what he’s about to do?

Offer you Torii Hunter and Chad Qualls for Grady Sizemore. And you know what’s worse?

You’re going to consider it.

I mean, what could be better? Hunter isn’t Sizemore, sure, but he’s still good — and you get the added bonus of a closer! It’s like getting a free player! It’s a two-for-one! And it makes perfect sense, right?

No. No, it does not make sense. Step away from the two-fer. Step away slowly.

Today we’re going to talk about something the Baron likes to call “talent dilution.” It goes like this. Let’s imagine every player on your team could be rated on a scale of 1 to 5. Superstars drafted in the first three rounds, like Sizemore, are 5s. Decent, mid-round players like Hunter are 3s. Midlevel closers (you know, the guys who went in rounds 12 through 15) are 2s. And all replacement level free-agent pick-ups are 1s.

Using this rough scale, you might say: Hunter + Qualls = Sizemore, because 3 + 2 = 5. Ergo, this trade is fair.

But think of this: The person getting Sizemore – i.e. the creepy guy outside your window RIGHT NOW – is going to upgrade from a 3 to a 5, then replace Qualls with, at worst, a replacement-level pitcher, e.g. a 1 (Arredondo in a non-holds league), or maybe even a 2 (say Tavarez is available, who might get saves). So while you wind up with five points worth of talent, he winds up with six or seven. In other words, he wins.

And that’s assuming you have a shallow FA pool with only shizztastic players available. Often, though, in a 12-team mixed league, there are perfectly good 2s and 3s – guys like Adam LaRoche and Travis Snider and Kaz Matsui and Hideki Matsui – just sitting there waiting to be plucked. Which makes the two-fer trade all the more attractive – to the guy getting one player and giving up two. Because you’re never just getting back one player – you’re getting one player plus a replacement to fill the subsequent hole.

Still, you might say: So what, Baron? What do I care if the other guy picks up a good FA? I’m busy identifying a weakness on my team and addressing it by trading a valuable chip! What’s wrong with that?

Well, as a result, you go from having one star player to two middling players. Then, later in the season, as other needs crop up, you look to make another trade – except now instead of Sizemore to offer, you have Hunter. If he’s a 3, what can he bring back? A 3, if you’re lucky. Or a 2 plus a 1. You know what he can’t bring back? A five. Like Sizemore.

And even if you don’t need to make another trade, you’re stuck with a team full of middling guys — it’s almost like you sat out the first five rounds of the draft so you could stockpile extra picks in rounds 7 through 20. Who are you, Bill Belichick?

For this reason, two-for-ones are almost always a bad idea to accept early in the season, and they ain’t great late in the season either. (Of course, you know your particular league better than I do. For example, in some leagues, the jostling for saves is so intense that you have to make two-fers to survive.)

For this same reason, though, two-fer-ones are great trades for you to make early in the season if you are giving up two to get one – even if you’re not sold on the replacement player you’ll be using. Because you are stockpiling value now, which will help you later, instead of divesting value now, which will hurt you later.

P.S. The other, much more efficient way to totally screw your team into the ground is by dropping slumping stars early so you can pick up hot FAs. Of course, no one thinks they are doing this at the time. But look back at how many questions like “I am so sick of Beckett killing me – should I drop him for Kyle Davies?” pop up in the messages.

It is natural to get frustrated when your stars – you wasted such high picks on them! You had such high hopes! – struggle while no-name guys shine. You want the shiny things! And who knows — maybe Kyle Davies is this year’s Cliff Lee!

But for every Quentin – who will blossom over the season into a valuable 5 – there will be ten Bonifacios, who burn brightly but flare out. Which is how you wake up in June with a team full of no-names like David (or Daniel) Murphy who had two good weeks back in April, while all the guys you dropped because they were slumping got snatched up by smarter owners than you.

Moral of the story: Don’t be that guy. Be the smarter one.