Even though major league teams have only played 3 or 4 games, RCL managers have been extremely active, averaging 50 moves per league. 10.6% of rostered players were picked up from the free agent pool. Factoring in players on the DL, you’re still left with the fact that 8% of drafted players have been dumped after only 3 full days of action.
Of course, many of those moves occurred before the season started, and in the week between the 2 games in Japan and the “real” start to the season. And 58% involved relief pitchers. Some of that is managers taking advantage of the RCL’s Game Started rather than Innings Pitched limit (more on that later), but the majority appear to be chasing saves, guessing who might be the next to get the opportunities as injuries and struggling pitchers abound in the relief corps. 19 pitchers have recorded 26 saves so far this season. 4 leagues have an almost perfect score with 25 saves; I don’t think anybody owned Brian Shaw, who picked up the save for Arizona yesterday as J.J. Putz was rested. Congratulations RCL 24, ECFBL, Robust Herd, and Schmohawk in Training. 41 other leagues have 22-24 saves, while the remaining 3 have 19, 20, and 21.
18 trades involving 54 players have already been made. The biggest names involved were in RCL 38, where Big Mess traded the 13th overall pick, Carlos Gonzalez, to Team Arnold for Hanley Ramirez, the 16th pick. Big Mess had not drafted a shortstop until the 20th round (Yunel Escobar), while Team Arnold had also taken Elvis Andrus in the 5th. In RCL 46, Team Stacy traded Andrew McCutchen to Hooka Man for Drew Stubbs and J.J. Putz. RPs were included in 8 deals, with Mariano Rivera and Heath Bell among those changing teams.
OK, as promised, some thoughts on our pitching limits. For those of you in your first season in the RCL, the 180-game started limit (approximately 1 start per day) is probably different than what you are used to. It makes management of your rotation more important to get the maximum numbers from your key starters. Middle relievers also become more valuable, as you can get ratio help and add Ks without eating into your 180 starts. And, it is important to remember, stats from relievers continue to count after you reach the games started limit. It is also possible to get a few extra starts, as all stats will count on the day you reach the 180-game limit. So, if you load up on starters for that day, you could actually finish with 188 starts. See 2011 results here.
TEAM OF THE WEEK – March 28 – April 8
snooki’s baby daddy (Balls and Razz)
.304(49/161)
27 R/7 HR/28 RBI/11 SB
40.2 IP
38 K/4 W/1.55/0.93/3 S
snooki’s baby daddy rode Matt Kemp (.412/6 R/2 HR/8 RBI/1 SB) and Carlos Pena (.500/2 HR/7 RBI) to 1st place in their league with 106.5 points. Their pitching was even more impressive, with Jeremy Hellickson, Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke, and Johnny Cueto totaling 30.2 shutout innings.
No surprise that Johan Santana pitched well yesterday. Everyone pitched well yesterday (except relievers). Now I know what it was like to play fantasy baseball during the dead ball era. “Hey, Scoots, I got me a base hit from my second bagger! I’m so excited, but maybe that excitement is from this Coca-Cola that’s made from cocaine! I love me some fizzle! I’m gonna boil this Coca-Cola, then smoke the leftover brown soot. You want in, Scoots? Huh?!” Can’t everyone do the juice and then use FedEx? I miss the shrunken ball era! Did anyone even hit a ball out of the infield yesterday? Someone lower the mound six inches and use aluminum bats. Please! I need Justin Masterson looking like Bob Gibson like I need another hole in my head (I already have four; one of my ears closed up after listening to the Cleveland Indian announcers). Can’t say I wasn’t unpleasantly surprised to see Johan pitching. It would’ve been straight pleasantly, but I don’t own him anywhere. He’s not the pitcher he once was. He’s not going back to that, but he looked like he could be a fairly competent number three fantasy starter if — and this “if” is the size of Gilbert Grape’s mom — he can stay healthy. Though, after yesterday, every healthy pitcher may be a competent number three. Now go smoke some Coca-Cola soot! Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:
Frank Francisco – A perfect inning save. It’s safe to drop Rauch and/or Parnell. If you want, pretend you’re going catch Rauch in a trust exercise, then let him drop. It’s more fun that way.
Jason Bay – 0-for-3. I’m putting the over/under at 24 months for how long until he’s out of baseball.
Andres Torres – Left the 7th inning with a calf strain. He’s headed to the DL. Boo. Or, I guess with an injured calf, it’s moo. Scott Hairston should now see starts against lefties. Jerry Hairston Sr., you named the wrong one after you! (And, really, how do you not name one of your sons, Harry?)
Kirk Nieuwenhuis – He sounds like a piece of furniture at Ikea, but don’t sleep on this guy! See what I did there? Yeah, I’m not sure either. Nieuwenhuis has double digit speed and power and should see the righties in the outfield platoon with Hairston. In NL-Only leagues, I’d definitely grab him because if he hits, he may push Bay to the bench.
Ian Desmond – 3-for-5 with a steal. I know he’s not going to hit .600 this year (though he will maintain his 162 steal pace), but can everyone stop putting a mirror up to his nose to see if he’s dead?
Brad Lidge – 1 IP, 0 ER as he got the save yesterday (though it wasn’t pretty. Though II, The Return of Though: Lidge hasn’t had a pretty save in three years). Davey Johnson said he’s going to alternate back and forth between Lidge and Rodriguez for saves. In other words, he’s doing the highly scientific method of Eeny Meeny Miney Moe.
Stephen Strasburg – 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks. Worked through seven innings with only 82 pitches. He dispatched of the Cubs Thirty Days’ War-quick. Woot, woot, House of Strasburg, raise your pith helmets!
Tommy Hanson – 5 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 4 Ks. Saw glimpses of Hommy Tanson yesterday, but also saw glimpses of why I avoided him this year. He seemed to labor a bit through five innings only throwing in the upper-80′s, then luckily was bailed out by Kris Medlen, the newest flat-billed pitchypus.
Jason Heyward – 0-for-4, as he batted 7th against a lefty. I imagine he’ll move up to 6th vs. righties, but he needs to hit his way out of the bottom of the order, like, quickfast.
Ryan Dempster – 7 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 10 Ks. I don’t think I drafted him anywhere (Grey have too many teams), but I did like him in the preseason (member that phase of our life? It was seventy-two hours ago, which sounds like a bad action-thriller).
Bryan LaHair – Missed the opener because his back pain was too much to LaBear.
Alfredo Aceves – One game, one inherited runner allowed to score for the Tigers’ walkoff win. So far, so good! I thought Bobby Valentine was hitting the sauce when he put Alfredo in as the closer, but he wasn’t creamed yesterday (that was like a triple pun point), so I doubt anything’s changed with the bullpen situation. If anything, Melancon just made himself look worse. “Do I have to stand in the corner? Big Papi farted over there.” That’s Melancon after being scolded.
Ryan Sweeney – 2-for-4 with a triple. He’s in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell. His sister, Julia, is not.
Jay Bruce – 1-for-3, 2 RBIs, 1 run. One B, one R, one C, one E and eleven U’s, what do you get?
Zack Cozart – 2-for-4, 1 run. Bu-da-ba-bah-dah! Bu-da-ba-bah-dah! That’s Cozart’s Out Of The Minors Concerto played from the two hole.
Chris Heisey – Launched a double in his only at-bat. Might be the best 4th outfielder in baseball. Wait, that would mean Ludwick is better than him. Yeah, Heisey’s the best 3rd outfielder that is currently a 4th outfielder. Hopefully, Dusty and his toothpick get on the same page and move Ludwick to the pine. On a real baseball note, the Reds are gonna be tough this year.
Johnny Cueto – 7 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 4 Ks. He came up against a Miami club that left Crayola Canyon late on Wednesday and had to play again early on Thursday. I’m not reading too much into Cueto’s start (actually, I guess I am). I’m still not going in on Cueto.
Ryan Doumit – Slated to start in the outfield on Opening Day. Guess no one told the Twins Doumit is German for “Without Mitt.”
Scott Baker – It takes a certain kind of mettle to get injured while rehabbing from an injury and Baker’s heavy with that mettle.
Jonathan Broxton – The Royals named Broxton the closer. Too bad they didn’t also name a closer for the White Sox. Can go ahead and drop Holland.
Jack Hannahan – Hit a 3-run HR, his 3rd opening day HR. It’s too bad closing time at Hannahan’s is April 30th. Enjoy the happy hour specials while you can.
Justin Masterson – 8 IP, 1 ER, 3 baserunners, 10 Ks, but no win. Let’s see if you can guess the theme? Morroccan! No, Random Italicized Voice. The theme is great start from the starter followed by hideous relief.
Chris Perez – 2/3 IP, 3 ER and the blown save. Cleveland isn’t known for BBQ, but their closer sure looks like smoked meat. He should let Masterson go Brutus Beefcake on his mullet for blowing his awesome start. Perez owners – if you haven’t done it already – grab Signore Pestano.
Jose Bautista – 3-for-4 with his first home run (since I started believing him — I’ve been backwards dunked in Bautista’s waters!).
J.P. Arencibia – 1-for-7, 3 RBIs and a home run. Sounds about the going rate for Arencibia — he’s a one spicy catcher!
Brett Lawrie – 0-for-6. Drop him!
Roy Halladay – 8 IP, 0 ER, 2 baserunners, 5 Ks. Since Spring Training is still fresh in everyone’s brain, do you remember how ridiculous it was when people were saying Halladay’s lost velocity and getting pounded? I mean, it’s not like he was going against the 1988 A’s yesterday, but c’mon. Don’t aggravate Grey. You disrupt his mustache’s sheen.
Jose Valverde – 1 IP, 2 ER….and there goes the suspense for whether Valverde could go perfect in save opportunities for a 2nd year in a row. The last guy I remember being perfect was Lidge in 2008 and he had – gulp – 11 blown saves the next year. Anyway, in summary, Valverde sucked but owners can’t be mad because he got the conshellation prize, Verlander owners can’t be mad because he threw an awesome start, leagues with QS instead of Wins have already programmed out any Blown Save-related anger like a robot who can’t feel emotions.
Justin Verlander – 8 IP, 0 ER, 3 baserunners, 7 Ks. Of course, he pitched well. Dan Cortese from Rock ‘n Jock Softball could’ve pitched well yesterday.
Clayton Kershaw – Only pitched three innings because of a stomach flu. Or maybe Bobby Valentine is managing the Dodgers by satellite and thought Kershaw should be a middle reliever who starts games.
Kenley Jansen – 1 IP, 2 ER. I’m not sure there’s anything more frustrating than a middle reliever you know isn’t going to get saves that you own for ratio and strikeout help that gives up runs. It’s like you make an arrangement with a girl that it’s strictly a sexual relationship and then you meet her parents. During sex.
Just as I was looking at recent mocks for 2012 fantasy baseball drafts. Every time I heard the chorus, I saw Justin Verlander‘s name in the top ten. Only I didn’t hear the words. I heard… Fail! Blame it on his ADP, baby! Fail! Fail! Fail! Fail! Fail! Maybe I’m a different breed! Maybe I’m not listening! So blame it on his ADP, baby! Fail! Fail! Fail! Fail! Fail! And I wasn’t even stoned (I don’t think so, at least). When the song was over, I played Neil Diamond on repeat for 3 hours to clear my head of that song and I started thinking, am I missing something? Or s-thing, if you’re in a time crunch. Right now Verlander’s ADP is at 9 overall. He’s being drafted as high as 2 overall. I give this a little leeway because I do think some people mock draft like they would never really draft just to see what a team would look like with a pitcher in the first round. I’ll give you a hint. Your team will look terrible.
This isn’t even about Verlander, though I don’t think he repeats his numbers from last year. This isn’t even about him being drafted before Halladay or Kershaw, which I think is slightly crummy with crackers. This is more about your team with a pitcher in the first or even 2nd round. You can’t make up the missing offense without some luck. You don’t want to count on luck, especially if it’s as indecipherable as done by David Milch. Say you draft Verlander and David Wright (who is about 20 picks away from Verlander, so he’d be around for your 2nd pick) and someone else drafts Prince and Longoria. Then you have 25-ish homers and 15-ish steals from Wright in a good year and a number one starter. The other guy has 60-ish homers and 10-ish steals and drafts Dan Haren four rounds later. I’m ignoring wins, as you should, but between Haren and Verlander you’re missing 50 Ks and ~.50 ERA and ~.04 WHIP. Basically what you’re getting from any halfway decent reliever. If you say, “Well, Grey, with all due respect to your mustache, I’ll grab a 1st baseman where you’re taking Haren.” Okay, you’re drafting Napoli or Konerko. Now, be honest, do you trust Napoli and Konerko compared to Prince the same way you trust Haren compared to Verlander? Fail! Fail! Fail! Fail! Fail! (BTW, that isn’t the official video, but who can resist a girl fight? I can’t; no apologies.)
Well, that took care of the hitters. They’re done. That cake is done. Unless you count Utility-only players, the Hall of Fame committee doesn’t count them, not sure why you do. Maybe you like players so unathletic that they can’t even play first. You deal with your own hang-ups, ‘kay? Now we look at the top 20 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball. Bee tee dubya, I’m still calling this year twelve after twenty. Hope you are too, hate to think I started a fad that only lasted for a minute or two right after midnight on January 1st. We’re gonna take this top 20 to a top 40 then a top 60 then a top 80. Sounds daunting to you?! Try being the one writing all this gobbledygook. I have a pretty off color joke for that last word, but you would’ve had to be in ‘Nam to appreciate it. You’re not going to find me drafting many of the top tier 20 starters unless they drop to the point where I feel they’re a bargain. Say two to three rounds past their average draft position. There’s just too many starters you can grab in the 5th to 7th rounds that are pretty safe to mess with the top, top guys. I do like to grab at least one starter from the following post, but we’ll get to that. As with the hitters, the projections are mine and I’ll list where I see tiers starting and stopping. Anyway, here’s the top 20 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball:
1. Roy Halladay – This is the top tier. This tier goes from here until Verlander. I call this tier, “The top tier. Didn’t I already say that?” Halladay’s projections can be found in the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball.
2. Clayton Kershaw – I saw some ‘perts rank Verlander above Kershaw. For shame, shame balls. I saw another ‘pert rank Verlander above Halladay. Shame ball me once? Shame balls on you. Shame ball me twice? Shame balls on you. To think I don’t get paid for this astute analysis. Inconceivable! Seriously (uh-oh, you know I’m about to get serious), what is there to say about the top pitchers? Kershaw just slept with your sister in the back of a hooptie, then left her on the side of the 101 in Reseda. Are you angry or proud? Proud, that’s how awesome he is. 2012 Projections: 17-7/2.55/1.05/230
3. Cliff Lee – The Adverb had a tough time with walks last year (for him, which is way below normal for any human pitcher), and that lead to a huge step forward in Ks (7.84 to 9.21 K/9). Doode, I’ll take a full 2.00 BB/9 if it means another 40 Ks. You feel me? If you do, could you stop? It’s making me uncomfortable. 2012 Projections: 18-8/2.50/1.05/215
4. Justin Verlander – The other day I heard a ex-jock, sportscasting announcer guy say, “Verlander didn’t have a good year…. He had a great year!” Is there any other profession that could get away with such trite shizz? Imagine your mechanic told you your muffler wasn’t good… It was great! You’d think twice the next time a Groupon for Jiffy Lube showed up in your Inbox. You know ESPN et al think they can get away with ex-jocks/idiotic sportscasters because they think you’re dumb. With that said, Verlander did have a great year. DAH!!! 2012 Projections: 18-7/2.75/1.08/240
5. Tim Lincecum – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Greinke. I call this tier, “The aces that once were.” I’m seeing Lincecum drafted after a couple of guys I have after him on my rankings, so if he were to fall far enough, I could see maybe getting him. He would have to fall probably much later than he will. He had a solid enough 2011 to still be an ace. Don’t love the falling K-rate, burgeoning walk rate or his highest xFIP since his rookie year. None of it is terrific, but I also wouldn’t yell fire in the theater of Lincecum. 2012 Projections: 15-10/2.75/1.18/230
6. Felix Hernandez – Ready to have your mind blown? F-Her actually had a better season in 2011 than his dream Cy Young year when he won a whole 13 games. Thinking about that, Murray Chass just rolled over in casket, assuming he sleeps in a casket to make things easier for his family when he dies. F-Her’s K-rate was better in 2011, his xFIP was nearly identical (3.14 vs. 3.15) and he won an extra game. (His WHIP was a little off, but that was due to some rollers finding holes, as they say on the Skee-Ball World Tour.) 2012 Projections: 15-12/2.80/1.14/220
7. CC Sabathia – I’m trying not to be too stupid this year. In previous years, I’ve said I’m avoiding CC because he has too many innings on his arm. Then he’s gone out and thrown another 200 innings. He can throw a lot of innings. He’s just a dandy Yankee who eats lots of cheese doodles — stick a feather in his arm and call it macaroni and then he’ll eat that too. 2012 Projections: 20-7/3.10/1.20/210
8. Zack Greinke – Okay, I probably will end up drafting Greinke cause I’m ranking him pretty high. That doesn’t mean I’m taking him in the 3rd round overall. (I’ll get to the top 300 overall where I rank everyone together; don’t worry your cute little egg-shaped head about that.) I can’t say I owned Greinke last year when everyone was crazy about him in the preseason because, well, everyone was crazy about him. Then he went out and had a 3.83 ERA. Belch called you up and burped. Obviously there’s more to his ERA than meets the eye. He had a 10.54 K/9 and a 2.56 xFIP. *drool* Everyone’s writing the Brewers off this year, and there’s some reason to, but Greinke used to do work on the Royals. He’ll be a’ight. 2012 Projections: 15-8/2.90/1.18/220
9. Cole Hamels – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Lester. I call this tier, “If I don’t have one starter already, here’s where I’m drafting and I’m fine with that.” Are we going to get the Hamels that gives a 9+ K-rate or the under-2 walk rate? Doesn’t matter. He really hasn’t had one bad year when you look under the hood. Four straight years of 32+ starts and no xFIP over 3.63. You’ll take it and like it. 2012 Projections: 15-10/2.95/1.10/200
10. Madison Bumgarner – I already went over my Bumgarner 2012 fantasy. I wrote it while counting my licks to the center of a Tootsie pop. 2012 Projections: 15-8/2.90/1.18/200
11. Yovani Gallardo – I took some flak for ranking Gallardo so high last year. Well, last year I ranked him 10th and this year 11th. Correction done. I don’t know, guys and three girl readers, he had a 8.99 K/9, dropped his walk rate by more than one per nine and had a xFIP of 3.19. Was it really that bad of a year? Rhetorical! If he gives me the same season as last year, I’m all right with that. (Side note: Gallardo was on the Verducci list of risky pitchers. Here’s what I said about that list.) 2012 Projections: 15-9/3.15/1.20/210
12. David Price – I saw one fantasy baseball ‘pert rank Price 11th and Gallardo 18th. Let’s see what we know from last year: Price’s K-rate 8.75; Gallardo’s 8.99, Price’s walk rate 2.53; Gallardo’s 2.56, Price’s xFIP 3.32; Gallardo’s 3.19, Price is in the AL East; Gallardo is in a Pujols-less NL Central (which actually sounds painful), Price won 12 games last year; Gallardo 17. I’m willing to throw wins out the metaphorical window, but is anything else saying Price is that much better? None of this is meant to disparage Price, bee tee dubya. I just don’t see the discrepancy between the two. You know what happens when you feel sick from French pancakes? You’re having a discrepancy. Take it, Highlights. It’s yours. 2012 Projections: 15-10/3.20/1.18/200
13. Jon Lester – I beat myself up a little (no, that’s not a euphemism for something else) on where to rank Lester. His xFIP last year was 3.62. I’ve seen better. His K-rate of 8.55 is great, but he’s done better. Looking inside his months, it’s hard to see why we should penalize him for two bad months (May and September). In May, he had one start vs. the Cubs where he gave up 5 earned in six innings, but the Sawx had a huge early lead, so he was pitching to bats. He was then torched by the Blue Jays for five runs in 5 innings, but three came in the 1st and then he settled down. Finally, he gave up 7 earned vs. the White Sox (obviously he doesn’t like Chicago pizza). In that game, he gave three early runs then 4 in the 6th to get chased. Then his bad month of September came when the entire club crapped on the memory of Johnny Pesky. Am I making excuses for Lester? Oh, fo’ sho. But he strikes out a lot of people. Hmm, guess I could’ve just said that. 2012 Projections: 16-9/3.25/1.22/200
14. Dan Haren – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until C.J. Wilson. I call this tier, “Wim Wenders’s favorite tier.” With my Haren ranking here, I’m basically blocking a Triple Word score with a solid, yet unspectacular word. I don’t think Haren is going to be someone who ends up out-performing this ranking (unless he lucks into, like, 22 wins). He is terrifically solid. No more, no less. It’s not a knock. It just is. 2012 Projections: 17-10/3.30/1.12/190
15. Jered Weaver – This year in and year out exceeding of his xFIP worries me. It’s like we’re being told to proceed with caution, but continue to ignore it and it works out. I don’t want the rug to get pulled out from underneath me, but I also don’t want to say he’s garbage because he has a bit of a track record that says he’s not. I’m going to put my ERA projection at 3.35, but if we get a 3.60 it wouldn’t shock me. I also don’t think it would make for that awful of a season either. 2012 Projections: 16-10/3.35/1.12/200
16. C.J. Wilson – When he landed in SoCal, I went over my C.J. Wilson fantasy. I wrote it while juggling fire. 2012 Projections: 14-8/3.45/1.21/190
17. Gio Gonzalez – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until the the top 40 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball. I call this tier, “Am I crazy with these rankings? Yeah, crazy like a fox!” You’ll pardon me if I link to my Gio Gonzalez 2012 fantasy rather than reiterating. This post is already pushing 2000 words and eyes tend to glaze over after the first 125 words. 2012 Projections: 15-8/3.50/1.28/200
18. Matt Cain – He’s the only name in this tier that isn’t crazy exciting just reliable. If you think this is too high and that I’m crummy with crackers, his ERAs the last three years were: 2.89, 3.14 and 2.88. Like Harrison Ford’s Jewish roots, those aren’t too shabby. Need more convincing? He had more quality starts than Halladay last year. Sure, his xFIPs aren’t great, but he beats those every year, let’s just accept that. 2012 Projections: 14-10/3.10/1.10/180
19. Mat Latos – Albert went over Latos’s trade to the Reds when it went down. There he said, “When you think Padres pitching, you assume they get huge bumps from Petco – not exactly the case for Latos. While he has a slightly better K:BB rate at home during the course of his career, his slash lines are virtually identical: .229/.287/.348 at home versus .224/.286/.351 on the road. Bingo-bango!” I added the bingo-bango. To add to that, Latos was facing the Giants and Dodgers a heck of a lot. They’re, how do I say, terrible. Yes, that’s how I say it. Home or away. He’ll be a bit less the pitcher he was, but he’ll also have an actual offense and could be a sleeper to get 20 wins. I know, I know, I don’t count on wins either. Just putting it out there in the ether, no relation to Andre. 2012 Projections: 16-10/3.50/1.20/200
20. Stephen Strasburg – His fan club, The House of Strasburg, better launder their early-1900s, Austrian officer uniforms because we’re about to have our ordainment of St. Rasburg. I want to watch him more than I want to get in a bidding war to own him. If you catch my drift… If you don’t catch my drift, stand behind me. I’d be shocked if he pitches one inning over 160. For our friends from Latin America, we have a caveat: I wouldn’t go near Strasburg in H2H leagues, there’s no way he pitches in September. 2012 Projections: 12-5/2.90/1.10/165 in 160 innings
All the final 2011 fantasy baseball rankings for hitters are done. For those that skipped today’s title, this starts the top 20 starters for 2011 fantasy baseball. This is NOT for 2012 (caps for those still wearing their Dolphin Tale 3-D glasses). This is a recap. Will these affect next year’s rankings? Sure. But not entirely. To recapitulate, these rankings are from ESPN’s Player Rater. It’s an objective third party to fairly gauge my preseason rankings. Does this mean I think ESPN’s Player Rater is the Tootie and I’m the Natalie? No, just an unbiased comparison. Anyway, here’s the top 20 starters for 2011 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:
1. Justin Verlander – Verlander was terrific yadda3. I’d prefer to take his blurb to talk about how easily pitchers can go wrong, or fantasy teams, in general. I had Kershaw, Hamels and Yovani as guys I wanted in the preseason. They all finished in this top 20. Unfortunately, I also had Liriano in a group of pitchers I wanted, and he was the one I ended up with in a bunch of leagues. Pitching can be found later in drafts so this didn’t kill all my leagues, but it just shows you how easily a coin flip (Liriano or Kershaw) can turn a team’s fortunes. Preseason Rank #12, 2011 Projections: 15-10/3.50/1.18/210, Final Numbers: 24-5/2.40/0.92/250
2. Clayton Kershaw – You know what’s nice about Clayton Kershaw? Everything! This article from 2010 always sticks in the back of my mind. This is pretty unfair to point out. We’ve all been wrong. Shoot, I’m wrong more than I’m right. I’m probably wrong just pointing this article out. For those who don’t have ESPN Hindsighter, the piece was written almost two years ago. (Yeah, I randomly remember shizz like this but forget where I parked my car.) The author compares Kershaw to young pitchers over the last 30 years and how they get hurt or lose velocity. He compares Kershaw to Kazmir and Ollie Perez. Only there’s no mention that Kazmir and Perez had an entirely different flaw in their games. They walked more than someone with a DUI in Los Angeles. Also, he mentions Doc Gooden. Only he doesn’t mention that Gooden had the world by the nuts until he decided to see if he could snort the foul lines. What’s also omitted in that article is that Feller, Drysdale and Blyleven did pretty well at the ripe old age of 22. Could Kershaw collapse because he has too many innings on his arm at a young age? I suppose, but not because a few prodigies did and some other prodigies didn’t. Preseason Rank #7, 2011 Projections: 14-8/3.00/1.15/220, Final Numbers: 21-5/2.28/0.98/248
3. Roy Halladay – The fact that Halladay ended up 3rd is more a testament to the two pitchers above him rather than an indictment on anything he did. Preseason Rank #1, 2011 Projections: 19-7/2.75/1.06/205, Final Numbers: 19-6/2.35/1.04/220
4. Cliff Lee – This is more of an over-arching issue with my preseason projections and the end of the year numbers. Pitchers were a lot better than I thought they’d be (or hitters were a lot worse). Guys I really liked in the preseason such as Lee, I projected an ERA for them a hair under 3.00. There were 16 pitchers with an ERA under 3.00. And a bunch of them weren’t just a “hair” under 3.00. It’s the Age of ERA-rius. Preseason Rank #3, 2011 Projections: 16-6/2.95/1.05/190, Final Numbers: 17-8/2.40/1.03/238
5. Jered Weaver – On one of the last days of the season, I took my rusty scalpel to Jered Weaver for 2011. I wrote it while remarking what a nice beaver you have. Preseason Rank #10, 2011 Projections: 15-10/3.40/1.15/195, Final Numbers: 18-8/2.41/1.01/198
6. James Shields – This might be a bit shocking to some people, but Shields’s 2010 when he had a 5.18 ERA wasn’t really that different than his 2.82 ERA this year. He gave up a few less homers, was lucky with BABIP and left more men on base. He’s been a mid-3 ERA pitcher more or less for the last two years. Preseason Rank #58, 2011 Projections: 12-8/3.95/1.30/170, Final Numbers: 16-12/2.82/1.04/225
7. Ian Kennedy – This is a bit of a continuation of what I said in the Verlander blurb about getting unlucky with my first starter. In the preseason I said I wanted Kennedy, Bumgarner, Chacin, Cueto, Morrow, Edwin Jackson, Jonathan Sanchez or de la Rosa as my fourth starter. Lots of hits there, but I could’ve ended up with the misses. I didn’t though. So luck does tend to even out. Or not. Your choice. Preseason Rank #40, 2011 Projections: 11-10/3.75/1.25/180, Final Numbers: 21-4/2.88/1.09/198
8. Cole Hamels – My pitching projections weren’t great, but the guys I told you to draft weren’t bad. I’ve pegged Hamels as a guy to go after for four (stutterer!) years now. Next year, it’ll be the fifth. Really nothing ever wrong with Hamels assuming his luck isn’t terrible. Preseason Rank #14, 2011 Projections: 14-10/3.40/1.18/190, Final Numbers: 14-9/2.79/0.99/194
9. Dan Haren – “You got your head so far up your ass your mustache is also your eyebrows! There’s no such thing as the Haren pre- and post-All Star break splits!” That’s you. This year: 2.61 ERA pre-All Star break; 3.89 ERA post-All Star break. Um, okay. Preseason Rank #20, 2011 Projections: 15-9/3.60/1.18/215, Final Numbers: 16-10/3.17/1.02/192
10. CC Sabathia – For a few years now, CC has worried me with his innings. Yeah, he’s a workhorse, but this is the 2nd year in a row where his post-All Star break numbers have been less than stellar and in 2011 it was even more pronounced. I.e., it’s pronounced: tired. Preseason Rank #5, 2011 Projections: 18-10/3.40/1.20/190, Final Numbers: 19-8/3.00/1.23/230
11. Josh Beckett – You can go ahead and read Shields’s blurb again, because it’s pretty much the same deal with Beckett. Preseason Rank #29, 2011 Projections: 15-9/4.15/1.24/170, Final Numbers: 13-7/2.89/1.03/175
12. C.J. Wilson – A recurring theme in my stupid assitude is my inability to understand relievers turned starters. Wilson didn’t feel the effects of 2010 on his arm, he actually got better. I really have no clue. Preseason Rank #49, 2011 Projections: 12-6/3.95/1.28/165, Final Numbers: 16-7/2.94/1.19/206
13. Matt Cain – As I continue to be the best ‘pert I can be, I’ve realized I should ignore certain stats for Cain. Yes, I’m smarter now because I’ve chosen to be more ignorant. You’re welcome. Preseason Rank #23, 2011 Projections: 13-9/3.50/1.12/180, Final Numbers: 12-11/2.88/1.08/179
14. Ricky Romero – In the preseason, when I told you to draft Romero, here’s what I said, “Let’s count the ways we love Ricky Romero, shall we? 7 ways! Okay, maybe I should count them out loud. 1) Will only be 26 years old. 2) Will be entering his third big league season, a time when pitchers tend to hit their stride. 3) His K-rate was 7 and half and can get better. 4) He cut his walks last year. 5) Golden rings. 6) Pitches in the AL East… Hmm… That’s not a positive. 7) There was really only 4 reasons that I stretched out to 7.” And that’s me quoting me! Preseason Rank #59, 2011 Projections: 13-6/3.65/1.30/180, Final Numbers: 15-11/2.92/1.14/178
15. Tim Lincecum – I was pretty concerned about Lincecum’s falling K-rate coming off his 2010 season…Yet, came closer to his projections than I did for most. As always, it’s better to be wrong-right than right-right. Preseason Rank #4, 2011 Projections: 15-10/3.20/1.18/225, Final Numbers: 13-14/2.74/1.21/220
16. Doug Fister – Easily the only pitcher that came completely out of nowhere. Sure, I ranked Shields way lower than he ended up, but I told y0u to draft Shields. Not only did I not mention Fister, but I wouldn’t have told you to even pick him up until around July. Fister’s season wasn’t quite as pretty as it seemed, but his K-rate was respectable and his walks were low. Fister, what a pisser! (Though not Fister in the pisser.) Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 11-13/2.83/1.06/146
17. David Price – I ranked Price 17th and he ended up 17th. Boo-ya! Unfortunately, I also said to not draft him. Again, it’s about being wrong-right. Price had a great 2010, but he actually had a better 2011. It’s a truism, or it’s supposed to be a truism, that pitchers really hit their stride in their 3rd year in the bigs. That’s what 2011 was for Price. The great sign going forward is he looks like he can continue for years to come, barring injury. Preseason Rank #17, 2011 Projections: 14-10/3.60/1.22/185, Final Numbers: 12-13/3.49/1.14/218
18. Tim Hudson – No fair, he stole Roy Oswalt’s end of the year stats. Preseason Rank #27, 2011 Projections: 14-10/3.75/1.20/130, Final Numbers: 16-10/3.22/1.14/158
19. Yovani Gallardo – As anyone knows that was around in the preseason, I was caca-cuckoo for Gallardo. I wanted him on every team. I pretty much nailed his projections too. Yet, I feel like he let me down a bit. Funny thing with this is when I really like a guy, I want them to beat my projections, not match them. That’s kinda how I am in every facet of my life too. Maybe I am just like my mother. She’s never satisfied. Preseason Rank #9, 2011 Projections: 16-9/3.30/1.24/220, Final Numbers: 17-10/3.52/1.22/207
20. Felix Hernandez – F-Her can get lumped in with Shields and Beckett. He had pretty much the same season this year as he had in 2010 when he won the Cy Young. Only this year, he won an extra game, his K-rate was better, his luck was worse and he gave up two extra homers. As his spooner cousin Helix Fernandez would say, “Most people just saw a downward spiral year. Not wanting to see how his xFIP was similar from 2010 to 2011. Or they just went DNA. You know, Did Not Address.” Preseason Rank #2, 2011 Projections: 16-12/2.80/1.10/220, Final Numbers: 14-14/3.47/1.22/222
