Fantasy Baseball Advice

Justin Verlander, 2012 Fantasy Schmohawk

February 10, 2012 By: Grey Category: 2012 Fantasy Baseball Overrated 108 Comments →

I was listening to this song:

Just as I was looking at recent mocks for 2012 fantasy baseball drafts.  Every time I heard the chorus, I saw Justin Verlander‘s name in the top ten.  Only I didn’t hear the words.  I heard… Fail!  Blame it on his ADP, baby!  Fail!  Fail!  Fail!  Fail!  Fail!  Maybe I’m a different breed!  Maybe I’m not listening!  So blame it on his ADP, baby!  Fail!  Fail!  Fail!  Fail!  Fail!  And I wasn’t even stoned (I don’t think so, at least).  When the song was over, I played Neil Diamond on repeat for 3 hours to clear my head of that song and I started thinking, am I missing something?  Or s-thing, if you’re in a time crunch.  Right now Verlander’s ADP is at 9 overall.  He’s being drafted as high as 2 overall.  I give this a little leeway because I do think some people mock draft like they would never really draft just to see what a team would look like with a pitcher in the first round.  I’ll give you a hint.  Your team will look terrible.

This isn’t even about Verlander, though I don’t think he repeats his numbers from last year.  This isn’t even about him being drafted before Halladay or Kershaw, which I think is slightly crummy with crackers.  This is more about your team with a pitcher in the first or even 2nd round.  You can’t make up the missing offense without some luck.  You don’t want to count on luck, especially if it’s as indecipherable as done by David Milch.  Say you draft Verlander and David Wright (who is about 20 picks away from Verlander, so he’d be around for your 2nd pick) and someone else drafts Prince and Longoria.  Then you have 25-ish homers and 15-ish steals from Wright in a good year and a number one starter.  The other guy has 60-ish homers and 10-ish steals and drafts Dan Haren four rounds later.  I’m ignoring wins, as you should, but between Haren and Verlander you’re missing 50 Ks and ~.50 ERA and ~.04 WHIP.  Basically what you’re getting from any halfway decent reliever.  If you say, “Well, Grey, with all due respect to your mustache, I’ll grab a 1st baseman where you’re taking Haren.”  Okay, you’re drafting Napoli or Konerko.  Now, be honest, do you trust Napoli and Konerko compared to Prince the same way you trust Haren compared to Verlander?  Fail!  Fail!  Fail!  Fail!  Fail!  (BTW, that isn’t the official video, but who can resist a girl fight?  I can’t; no apologies.)

Top 20 Starters for 2012 Fantasy Baseball

January 31, 2012 By: Grey Category: 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft, 2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings 54 Comments →

Well, that took care of the hitters.  They’re done.  That cake is done.  Unless you count Utility-only players, the Hall of Fame committee doesn’t count them, not sure why you do.  Maybe you like players so unathletic that they can’t even play first.  You deal with your own hang-ups, ‘kay?  Now we look at the top 20 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball.  Bee tee dubya, I’m still calling this year twelve after twenty.  Hope you are too, hate to think I started a fad that only lasted for a minute or two right after midnight on January 1st.  We’re gonna take this top 20 to a top 40 then a top 60 then a top 80.  Sounds daunting to you?!  Try being the one writing all this gobbledygook.  I have a pretty off color joke for that last word, but you would’ve had to be in ‘Nam to appreciate it.  You’re not going to find me drafting many of the top tier 20 starters unless they drop to the point where I feel they’re a bargain.  Say two to three rounds past their average draft position.  There’s just too many starters you can grab in the 5th to 7th rounds that are pretty safe to mess with the top, top guys.  I do like to grab at least one starter from the following post, but we’ll get to that.  As with the hitters, the projections are mine and I’ll list where I see tiers starting and stopping.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball:

1. Roy Halladay – This is the top tier.  This tier goes from here until Verlander.  I call this tier, “The top tier.  Didn’t I already say that?”  Halladay’s projections can be found in the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

2. Clayton Kershaw – I saw some ‘perts rank Verlander above Kershaw.  For shame, shame balls.  I saw another ‘pert rank Verlander above Halladay.  Shame ball me once?  Shame balls on you.  Shame ball me twice?  Shame balls on you.  To think I don’t get paid for this astute analysis.  Inconceivable!  Seriously (uh-oh, you know I’m about to get serious), what is there to say about the top pitchers?  Kershaw just slept with your sister in the back of a hooptie, then left her on the side of the 101 in Reseda.  Are you angry or proud?  Proud, that’s how awesome he is.  2012 Projections:  17-7/2.55/1.05/230

3. Cliff Lee – The Adverb had a tough time with walks last year (for him, which is way below normal for any human pitcher), and that lead to a huge step forward in Ks (7.84 to 9.21 K/9).  Doode, I’ll take a full 2.00 BB/9 if it means another 40 Ks.  You feel me?  If you do, could you stop?  It’s making me uncomfortable.  2012 Projections:  18-8/2.50/1.05/215

4. Justin Verlander – The other day I heard a ex-jock, sportscasting announcer guy say, “Verlander didn’t have a good year…. He had a great year!”  Is there any other profession that could get away with such trite shizz?  Imagine your mechanic told you your muffler wasn’t good… It was great!  You’d think twice the next time a Groupon for Jiffy Lube showed up in your Inbox.  You know ESPN et al think they can get away with ex-jocks/idiotic sportscasters because they think you’re dumb.  With that said, Verlander did have a great year.  DAH!!!  2012 Projections:  18-7/2.75/1.08/240

5. Tim Lincecum – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Greinke.  I call this tier, “The aces that once were.”  I’m seeing Lincecum drafted after a couple of guys I have after him on my rankings, so if he were to fall far enough, I could see maybe getting him.  He would have to fall probably much later than he will.  He had a solid enough 2011 to still be an ace.  Don’t love the falling K-rate, burgeoning walk rate or his highest xFIP since his rookie year.  None of it is terrific, but I also wouldn’t yell fire in the theater of Lincecum.  2012 Projections:  15-10/2.75/1.18/230

6. Felix Hernandez – Ready to have your mind blown?  F-Her actually had a better season in 2011 than his dream Cy Young year when he won a whole 13 games.  Thinking about that, Murray Chass just rolled over in casket, assuming he sleeps in a casket to make things easier for his family when he dies.  F-Her’s K-rate was better in 2011, his xFIP was nearly identical (3.14 vs. 3.15) and he won an extra game.  (His WHIP was a little off, but that was due to some rollers finding holes, as they say on the Skee-Ball World Tour.)  2012 Projections:  15-12/2.80/1.14/220

7. CC Sabathia – I’m trying not to be too stupid this year.  In previous years, I’ve said I’m avoiding CC because he has too many innings on his arm.  Then he’s gone out and thrown another 200 innings.  He can throw a lot of innings.  He’s just a dandy Yankee who eats lots of cheese doodles — stick a feather in his arm and call it macaroni and then he’ll eat that too.  2012 Projections:  20-7/3.10/1.20/210

8. Zack Greinke – Okay, I probably will end up drafting Greinke cause I’m ranking him pretty high.  That doesn’t mean I’m taking him in the 3rd round overall.  (I’ll get to the top 300 overall where I rank everyone together; don’t worry your cute little egg-shaped head about that.)  I can’t say I owned Greinke last year when everyone was crazy about him in the preseason because, well, everyone was crazy about him.  Then he went out and had a 3.83 ERA.  Belch called you up and burped.  Obviously there’s more to his ERA than meets the eye.  He had a 10.54 K/9 and a 2.56 xFIP.  *drool*  Everyone’s writing the Brewers off this year, and there’s some reason to, but Greinke used to do work on the Royals.  He’ll be a’ight.  2012 Projections:  15-8/2.90/1.18/220

9. Cole Hamels – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Lester.  I call this tier, “If I don’t have one starter already, here’s where I’m drafting and I’m fine with that.”  Are we going to get the Hamels that gives a 9+ K-rate or the under-2 walk rate?  Doesn’t matter.  He really hasn’t had one bad year when you look under the hood.  Four straight years of 32+ starts and no xFIP over 3.63.  You’ll take it and like it.  2012 Projections:  15-10/2.95/1.10/200

10. Madison Bumgarner – I already went over my Bumgarner 2012 fantasy.  I wrote it while counting my licks to the center of a Tootsie pop.  2012 Projections:  15-8/2.90/1.18/200

11. Yovani Gallardo – I took some flak for ranking Gallardo so high last year.  Well, last year I ranked him 10th and this year 11th.  Correction done.  I don’t know, guys and three girl readers, he had a 8.99 K/9, dropped his walk rate by more than one per nine and had a xFIP of 3.19.  Was it really that bad of a year?  Rhetorical!  If he gives me the same season as last year, I’m all right with that.  (Side note:  Gallardo was on the Verducci list of risky pitchers.  Here’s what I said about that list.)  2012 Projections:  15-9/3.15/1.20/210

12. David Price – I saw one fantasy baseball ‘pert rank Price 11th and Gallardo 18th.  Let’s see what we know from last year:  Price’s K-rate 8.75; Gallardo’s 8.99, Price’s walk rate 2.53; Gallardo’s 2.56, Price’s xFIP 3.32; Gallardo’s 3.19, Price is in the AL East; Gallardo is in a Pujols-less NL Central (which actually sounds painful), Price won 12 games last year; Gallardo 17.  I’m willing to throw wins out the metaphorical window, but is anything else saying Price is that much better?  None of this is meant to disparage Price, bee tee dubya.  I just don’t see the discrepancy between the two.  You know what happens when you feel sick from French pancakes?  You’re having a discrepancy.  Take it, Highlights.  It’s yours.  2012 Projections:  15-10/3.20/1.18/200

13. Jon Lester – I beat myself up a little (no, that’s not a euphemism for something else) on where to rank Lester. His xFIP last year was 3.62.  I’ve seen better.  His K-rate of 8.55 is great, but he’s done better.  Looking inside his months, it’s hard to see why we should penalize him for two bad months (May and September).  In May, he had one start vs. the Cubs where he gave up 5 earned in six innings, but the Sawx had a huge early lead, so he was pitching to bats.  He was then torched by the Blue Jays for five runs in 5 innings, but three came in the 1st and then he settled down.  Finally, he gave up 7 earned vs. the White Sox (obviously he doesn’t like Chicago pizza).  In that game, he gave three early runs then 4 in the 6th to get chased.  Then his bad month of September came when the entire club crapped on the memory of Johnny Pesky.  Am I making excuses for Lester?  Oh, fo’ sho.  But he strikes out a lot of people.  Hmm, guess I could’ve just said that.  2012 Projections:  16-9/3.25/1.22/200

14. Dan Haren – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until C.J. Wilson.  I call this tier, “Wim Wenders’s favorite tier.”  With my Haren ranking here, I’m basically blocking a Triple Word score with a solid, yet unspectacular word.  I don’t think Haren is going to be someone who ends up out-performing this ranking (unless he lucks into, like, 22 wins).  He is terrifically solid.  No more, no less.  It’s not a knock.  It just is.  2012 Projections:  17-10/3.30/1.12/190

15. Jered Weaver – This year in and year out exceeding of his xFIP worries me.  It’s like we’re being told to proceed with caution, but continue to ignore it and it works out.  I don’t want the rug to get pulled out from underneath me, but I also don’t want to say he’s garbage because he has a bit of a track record that says he’s not.  I’m going to put my ERA projection at 3.35, but if we get a 3.60 it wouldn’t shock me.  I also don’t think it would make for that awful of a season either.  2012 Projections:  16-10/3.35/1.12/200

16. C.J. Wilson – When he landed in SoCal, I went over my C.J. Wilson fantasy.  I wrote it while juggling fire.  2012 Projections:  14-8/3.45/1.21/190

17. Gio Gonzalez – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until the the top 40 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball.  I call this tier, “Am I crazy with these rankings?  Yeah, crazy like a fox!”  You’ll pardon me if I link to my Gio Gonzalez 2012 fantasy rather than reiterating.  This post is already pushing 2000 words and eyes tend to glaze over after the first 125 words.  2012 Projections:  15-8/3.50/1.28/200

18. Matt Cain – He’s the only name in this tier that isn’t crazy exciting just reliable.  If you think this is too high and that I’m crummy with crackers, his ERAs the last three years were:  2.89, 3.14 and 2.88.  Like Harrison Ford’s Jewish roots, those aren’t too shabby.  Need more convincing?  He had more quality starts than Halladay last year.  Sure, his xFIPs aren’t great, but he beats those every year, let’s just accept that.  2012 Projections:  14-10/3.10/1.10/180

19. Mat Latos – Albert went over Latos’s trade to the Reds when it went down.  There he said, “When you think Padres pitching, you assume they get huge bumps from Petco – not exactly the case for Latos. While he has a slightly better K:BB rate at home during the course of his career, his slash lines are virtually identical: .229/.287/.348 at home versus .224/.286/.351 on the road.  Bingo-bango!”  I added the bingo-bango.  To add to that, Latos was facing the Giants and Dodgers a heck of a lot.  They’re, how do I say, terrible.  Yes, that’s how I say it.  Home or away.  He’ll be a bit less the pitcher he was, but he’ll also have an actual offense and could be a sleeper to get 20 wins.  I know, I know, I don’t count on wins either.  Just putting it out there in the ether, no relation to Andre.  2012 Projections:  16-10/3.50/1.20/200

20. Stephen Strasburg – His fan club, The House of Strasburg, better launder their early-1900s, Austrian officer uniforms because we’re about to have our ordainment of St. Rasburg.  I want to watch him more than I want to get in a bidding war to own him.  If you catch my drift… If you don’t catch my drift, stand behind me.  I’d be shocked if he pitches one inning over 160.  For our friends from Latin America, we have a caveat:  I wouldn’t go near Strasburg in H2H leagues, there’s no way he pitches in September.  2012 Projections:  12-5/2.90/1.10/165 in 160 innings

Top 20 Starters for 2011 Fantasy Baseball

October 27, 2011 By: Grey Category: 2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings 105 Comments →

All the final 2011 fantasy baseball rankings for hitters are done. For those that skipped today’s title, this starts the top 20 starters for 2011 fantasy baseball.  This is NOT for 2012 (caps for those still wearing their Dolphin Tale 3-D glasses).  This is a recap.  Will these affect next year’s rankings?  Sure.  But not entirely.  To recapitulate, these rankings are from ESPN’s Player Rater.  It’s an objective third party to fairly gauge my preseason rankings.  Does this mean I think ESPN’s Player Rater is the Tootie and I’m the Natalie?  No, just an unbiased comparison.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 starters for 2011 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:

1. Justin Verlander – Verlander was terrific yadda3.  I’d prefer to take his blurb to talk about how easily pitchers can go wrong, or fantasy teams, in general.  I had Kershaw, Hamels and Yovani as guys I wanted in the preseason.  They all finished in this top 20.  Unfortunately, I also had Liriano in a group of pitchers I wanted, and he was the one I ended up with in a bunch of leagues.  Pitching can be found later in drafts so this didn’t kill all my leagues, but it just shows you how easily a coin flip (Liriano or Kershaw) can turn a team’s fortunes.  Preseason Rank #12, 2011 Projections: 15-10/3.50/1.18/210, Final Numbers:  24-5/2.40/0.92/250

2. Clayton Kershaw – You know what’s nice about Clayton Kershaw?  Everything!  This article from 2010 always sticks in the back of my mind.  This is pretty unfair to point out.  We’ve all been wrong.  Shoot, I’m wrong more than I’m right.  I’m probably wrong just pointing this article out.  For those who don’t have ESPN Hindsighter, the piece was written almost two years ago.  (Yeah, I randomly remember shizz like this but forget where I parked my car.)  The author compares Kershaw to young pitchers over the last 30 years and how they get hurt or lose velocity.  He compares Kershaw to Kazmir and Ollie Perez.  Only there’s no mention that Kazmir and Perez had an entirely different flaw in their games.  They walked more than someone with a DUI in Los Angeles.  Also, he mentions Doc Gooden.  Only he doesn’t mention that Gooden had the world by the nuts until he decided to see if he could snort the foul lines.  What’s also omitted in that article is that Feller, Drysdale and Blyleven did pretty well at the ripe old age of 22.  Could Kershaw collapse because he has too many innings on his arm at a young age?  I suppose, but not because a few prodigies did and some other prodigies didn’t.  Preseason Rank #7, 2011 Projections: 14-8/3.00/1.15/220, Final Numbers: 21-5/2.28/0.98/248

3. Roy Halladay – The fact that Halladay ended up 3rd is more a testament to the two pitchers above him rather than an indictment on anything he did.  Preseason Rank #1, 2011 Projections: 19-7/2.75/1.06/205, Final Numbers:  19-6/2.35/1.04/220

4. Cliff Lee – This is more of an over-arching issue with my preseason projections and the end of the year numbers.  Pitchers were a lot better than I thought they’d be (or hitters were a lot worse).  Guys I really liked in the preseason such as Lee, I projected an ERA for them a hair under 3.00.  There were 16 pitchers with an ERA under 3.00.  And a bunch of them weren’t just a “hair” under 3.00.  It’s the Age of ERA-rius.  Preseason Rank #3, 2011 Projections: 16-6/2.95/1.05/190, Final Numbers:  17-8/2.40/1.03/238

5. Jered Weaver – On one of the last days of the season, I took my rusty scalpel to Jered Weaver for 2011.  I wrote it while remarking what a nice beaver you have.  Preseason Rank #10, 2011 Projections: 15-10/3.40/1.15/195, Final Numbers:  18-8/2.41/1.01/198

6. James Shields – This might be a bit shocking to some people, but Shields’s 2010 when he had a 5.18 ERA wasn’t really that different than his 2.82 ERA this year.  He gave up a few less homers, was lucky with BABIP and left more men on base.  He’s been a mid-3 ERA pitcher more or less for the last two years.  Preseason Rank #58, 2011 Projections: 12-8/3.95/1.30/170, Final Numbers:  16-12/2.82/1.04/225

7. Ian Kennedy – This is a bit of a continuation of what I said in the Verlander blurb about getting unlucky with my first starter.  In the preseason I said I wanted Kennedy, Bumgarner, Chacin, Cueto, Morrow, Edwin Jackson, Jonathan Sanchez or de la Rosa as my fourth starter.  Lots of hits there, but I could’ve ended up with the misses.  I didn’t though.  So luck does tend to even out.  Or not.  Your choice.  Preseason Rank #40, 2011 Projections: 11-10/3.75/1.25/180, Final Numbers:  21-4/2.88/1.09/198

8. Cole Hamels – My pitching projections weren’t great, but the guys I told you to draft weren’t bad.  I’ve pegged Hamels as a guy to go after for four (stutterer!) years now.  Next year, it’ll be the fifth.  Really nothing ever wrong with Hamels assuming his luck isn’t terrible.  Preseason Rank #14, 2011 Projections: 14-10/3.40/1.18/190, Final Numbers:  14-9/2.79/0.99/194

9. Dan Haren – “You got your head so far up your ass your mustache is also your eyebrows!  There’s no such thing as the Haren pre- and post-All Star break splits!”  That’s you.  This year:  2.61 ERA pre-All Star break; 3.89 ERA post-All Star break.  Um, okay.  Preseason Rank #20, 2011 Projections: 15-9/3.60/1.18/215, Final Numbers:  16-10/3.17/1.02/192

10. CC Sabathia – For a few years now, CC has worried me with his innings.  Yeah, he’s a workhorse, but this is the 2nd year in a row where his post-All Star break numbers have been less than stellar and in 2011 it was even more pronounced.  I.e., it’s pronounced:  tired.  Preseason Rank #5, 2011 Projections: 18-10/3.40/1.20/190, Final Numbers:  19-8/3.00/1.23/230

11. Josh Beckett – You can go ahead and read Shields’s blurb again, because it’s pretty much the same deal with Beckett.  Preseason Rank #29, 2011 Projections: 15-9/4.15/1.24/170, Final Numbers:  13-7/2.89/1.03/175

12. C.J. Wilson – A recurring theme in my stupid assitude is my inability to understand relievers turned starters.  Wilson didn’t feel the effects of 2010 on his arm, he actually got better.  I really have no clue.  Preseason Rank #49, 2011 Projections: 12-6/3.95/1.28/165, Final Numbers:  16-7/2.94/1.19/206

13. Matt Cain – As I continue to be the best ‘pert I can be, I’ve realized I should ignore certain stats for Cain.  Yes, I’m smarter now because I’ve chosen to be more ignorant.  You’re welcome.  Preseason Rank #23, 2011 Projections: 13-9/3.50/1.12/180, Final Numbers:  12-11/2.88/1.08/179

14. Ricky Romero – In the preseason, when I told you to draft Romero, here’s what I said, “Let’s count the ways we love Ricky Romero, shall we?  7 ways!  Okay, maybe I should count them out loud.  1) Will only be 26 years old.  2) Will be entering his third big league season, a time when pitchers tend to hit their stride.  3) His K-rate was 7 and half and can get better. 4) He cut his walks last year.  5) Golden rings.  6) Pitches in the AL East… Hmm… That’s not a positive.  7)  There was really only 4 reasons that I stretched out to 7.”  And that’s me quoting me!  Preseason Rank #59, 2011 Projections: 13-6/3.65/1.30/180, Final Numbers:  15-11/2.92/1.14/178

15. Tim Lincecum – I was pretty concerned about Lincecum’s falling K-rate coming off his 2010 season…Yet, came closer to his projections than I did for most.  As always, it’s better to be wrong-right than right-right.  Preseason Rank #4, 2011 Projections: 15-10/3.20/1.18/225, Final Numbers:  13-14/2.74/1.21/220

16. Doug Fister – Easily the only pitcher that came completely out of nowhere.  Sure, I ranked Shields way lower than he ended up, but I told y0u to draft Shields.  Not only did I not mention Fister, but I wouldn’t have told you to even pick him up until around July.  Fister’s season wasn’t quite as pretty as it seemed, but his K-rate was respectable and his walks were low.  Fister, what a pisser!  (Though not Fister in the pisser.)  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 11-13/2.83/1.06/146

17. David Price – I ranked Price 17th and he ended up 17th.  Boo-ya!  Unfortunately, I also said to not draft him.  Again, it’s about being wrong-right.  Price had a great 2010, but he actually had a better 2011.  It’s a truism, or it’s supposed to be a truism, that pitchers really hit their stride in their 3rd year in the bigs.  That’s what 2011 was for Price.  The great sign going forward is he looks like he can continue for years to come, barring injury.  Preseason Rank #17, 2011 Projections: 14-10/3.60/1.22/185, Final Numbers:  12-13/3.49/1.14/218

18. Tim Hudson – No fair, he stole Roy Oswalt’s end of the year stats.  Preseason Rank #27, 2011 Projections: 14-10/3.75/1.20/130, Final Numbers:  16-10/3.22/1.14/158

19. Yovani Gallardo – As anyone knows that was around in the preseason, I was caca-cuckoo for Gallardo.  I wanted him on every team.  I pretty much nailed his projections too.  Yet, I feel like he let me down a bit.  Funny thing with this is when I really like a guy, I want them to beat my projections, not match them.  That’s kinda how I am in every facet of my life too.  Maybe I am just like my mother.  She’s never satisfied.  Preseason Rank #9, 2011 Projections: 16-9/3.30/1.24/220, Final Numbers:   17-10/3.52/1.22/207

20. Felix Hernandez – F-Her can get lumped in with Shields and Beckett.  He had pretty much the same season this year as he had in 2010 when he won the Cy Young.  Only this year, he won an extra game, his K-rate was better, his luck was worse and he gave up two extra homers.  As his spooner cousin Helix Fernandez would say, “Most people just saw a downward spiral year.  Not wanting to see how his xFIP was similar from 2010 to 2011.  Or they just went DNA.  You know, Did Not Address.”  Preseason Rank #2, 2011 Projections: 16-12/2.80/1.10/220, Final Numbers:  14-14/3.47/1.22/222

Land Of 10,000 Bad Breaks

September 19, 2011 By: Grey Category: Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes 128 Comments →

Joe Mauer is done for the year with pneumonia.  I’m almost 100% sure Morneau was the carrier of the virus.  On Friday, frequent commenter Mike said, “If you went to Joe Mauer’s house, went into his basement, jack-hammered through the concrete, and started digging, what would be the under/over on number of feet you’d have to go down before you found the first dessicated Native American corpse?  3 feet?  4 feet?  I mean, that Native American graveyard can’t be that far below the surface.”  I honestly never thought I’d say this this (stutterer!) early in his career, but I think Mauer’s going to be a bargain next year.  Assuming he falls into the 10th round or later, he’s worth the gamble at catcher for 2012, right?  I mean, even if he only gets 100 games and hits .300, it’s worth the ulcer, isn’t it?  I think so.  With that said (yeah, here comes opposite talk), I’m sure glad I haven’t drafted him the last two years in any league.  He hit 3 homers this year.  As in between 2 and 4.  Jesus Montero has that many in 10 games.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:

Jason Kubel – Probably done for the year.  In related news, Morneau, Mauer and Kubel have a fishing trip planned for the first weekend of October and all Twins fans have a hunting trip planned for the same weekend.

Tsuyoshi Nishioka – Done for the year.  Back date that to March.  Are the Twins fielding a team this final week and a half?

Brian Dinkelman – 4-for-5 yesterday and 7 for his last 9.  When your team’s good news is Brian Dinkelman, you got a big fish that needs some frying or whatever that cliche is.

Ryan Howard – Out until Thursday, which will probably mean he plays only sporadically even after that.  Ross Gload will fill in.  Army with harmony…Dave, drop a Gload on him!

Justin Verlander – 8 IP, 0 ER, 6 baserunners, 6 Ks as he won his 24th game yesterday.  That’s pretttay pretttay good.  Tough year to be Jered Weaver.

Joakim Soria – Didn’t pitch this weekend.  Now all the Royals’ 9th inning eggs are hoping for some good Holland days.

Pablo Sandoval – Hit two homers in one inning.  When you throw Sandoval two meatballs, he jumps on them.

David Price – Left after 4 innings after being hit in the chest by a liner.  Should be fine for his next start, which he will throw while wearing knight’s armor.

Desmond Jennings – 2-for-5 with a steal.  In roughly a third of the season, he has 9 homers and 18 steals.  Yeah, go ahead and times those by three.

Brandon Morrow – 8 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 8 Ks.  There should a glossary term for these K-heavy pitchers that are a total tease.  You suggest in the comments, thank you.

Adam Lind – 2-for-3 with two homers.  Be nice if he went on one of his crazy 6 homers in 8 games binges.  Cust kayin’.

Joe Saunders – 8 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 9 baserunners, 3 Ks.  He came through big time for my borderline starter post from Thursday.  (And Matt Harrison too.  Brad Lincoln, not so much.)

Paul Goldschmidt – 2-for-3 with a homer.  With 8 homers and 45 Ks in 40 games this year, he’s either gonna be something special next year or a flat-out bomb.

Mark Reynolds – Homered on Friday and Saturday, then was beaned in the head by a Ervin Santana pitch.  His CT scan came back negative, then the CT scan picked up Johnny Bananas and carried him to the other side of The Gulag.

James Loney – 5-for-6 yesterday and two homers in two games on Friday and Saturday.  I don’t like saying to pick up Loney, so if I wink, it means pick him up.  Wink.

Zack Greinke – 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 10 Ks.  I have two things to note, neither of which is that interesting.  First, I can’t believe Greinke is barely under a 4.00 ERA in the NL.  Second, I can never remember if it’s a H or a K with Zack.  From writing 1200+ words five days a week about these players, I can spell Saltalamacchia without looking it up.  I could be in a baseball spelling bee and kick serious ass and get tripped up by spelling Zack.  I feel like there should be a standard Zack spelling.  H or K, that’s it.

Erick Aybar – 4-for-4, 2 homers, 5 runs, 4 RBIs and now hitting .434 in September.  Looks like a classic Septacular performance.

Adrian Gonzalez – It was revealed this weekend that he’s only taking batting practice every other day due to weakness in his shoulder.  He said, “(The weakness is) fine.  It’s the end of the year.”  Um, maybe in San Diego.

Mike Aviles – 2-for-5, 3 RBIs with his 2nd homer in three games.  Sawx kinda have to win games and Aviles, McDonald, Salty, Scutaro and Conor Jackson (when I saw his name as C. Jackson in the box score, I thought it was Curtis Jackson) are playing and Wakefield is pitching.   Up the team salary to $300 million.

Brandon Beachy – 4 1/3 IP, 4 ER and 8 earned in his last 9 2/3 IP, 8 ER.  The good news for people who like bad news is he’s tired.   The other bad news is he might struggle next year if the Braves don’t shut him down.

Jason Heyward – 3-for-4 as he hit 8th in front of the pitcher.  He should consider apologizing to Fredi for whatever transgression he did to him or his family.  Meanwhile, pray he doesn’t hit three homers in one game in the playoffs and get on everyone’s radar again.

Manny Acosta – Closed out yesterday’s game while Parnell worked the 8th.  Honestly, I think the Mets are going to get a closer in the offseason and don’t really care who gets the ball in the ninth right now.  It’s not like they’re grooming anyone.

Chien-Ming Wang – 6 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks vs. the Marlins’ Brad Hand.  For a change of pace, this game saw Wang beating Hand.

A.J. Pierzynski – 4-for-5, 4 RBIs and 2 homers.  He reminded me of this classic post by Rudy.

Bryan LaHair – 1-for-3 yesterday and a homer on Saturday.  He should be playing every day, but he’s not.  I feel like someone should write a song titled, “The 28-Year-Old Rookie.”  Belle and Sebastian, where you at?

Jordan Pacheco – Batted third yesterday and went 0-for-4, but is hitting .320 over the last week with a homer.  He did so little in Triple-A this year, it’s kinda comical (3 homers, 2 steals, .278).  Guess if you’re really hogtied in a very deep league, you can take a look.

Allen Craig – 3-for-4, 2 homers.  Before this game, he hadn’t done much since he started, uh, starting.  But maybe this is the beginning of something.  Only Miss Cleo knows for sure.

Matt Holliday – Inferred here first after reading shizz elsewhere, it sounds like Holliday’s done for the year.

Mariano Rivera – Tied Trevor Hoffman’s save record.  Right after he breaks the record, the Yankees announced Bobby Parnell would take over as closer.

It’s Loco That Moscoso Just Missed A No-No

September 08, 2011 By: Rudy Gamble Category: Daily Notes, Rudy Gamble 32 Comments →

Every day that Justin Verlander starts, you know there’s a chance of a no-hitter.  You just expect it to be thrown by him and not another pitcher.  Guillermo Moscoso took a no-hitter into the 8th inning against the Royals and finished with 0 ER, 3 baserunners, 4 Ks in 8 2/3 IP.  He now has 8 wins in 18 starts which is as many wins as Brett Anderson, Dallas Braden, and Rich Harden managed this year combined.  Everything about Moscoso’s year screams fluke.  His 3.63 ERA / 1.14 WHIP does not gel with 5 K/9 and 3 BB/9.  But as an owner of this guy in my AL-only league, all I can say is this guy has been money against bad to average teams.  He’s had 4 ugly starts – @BOS, @TAM, @DET, and home against TAM.  His home WHIP is now under 1.00 in over 60 innings.  His road WHIP is 1.44.  There’s not much time left this season but if he has a start against a bad-to-average team at home – I’d go-go for Moscoso.

In other news…

Jerome Williams – The Angels’ starter has won all 3 of his Angel starts with this past one by far the best – 8 IP with just one hit (a Trayvon Robinson HR) and a walk.  Nothing to see here.  Just a 30 year old journeyman who’s perhaps half a notch more tolerable than Tyler Chatwood.

Chase Utley - Pulled out of the game after being hit in the helmet.  The Phillies brass are concerned he might have a mild concussion but Charlie Manuel is confident it’s just a standard variety ‘noggin burner’ and he just needs to rub some ‘piss ‘n’ vinegar’ on it.

Matt Cain – 7 IP, 2 ER, loss.  Same old song.  He’s now 11-10 despite a 1.06 WHIP.  He’s a career 68-73 despite a career 1.19 WHIP.  He should retaliate against the offense – I suggest he takes a dump in the pine tar.  Just don’t lose your balance or you’ll end up with sticky buns and tempt Pablo Sandoval.

Aaron Harang – Beat the Giants with a 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunner, 3 K start.  He’s now 13-5 for a team that’ s 19 games under .500 (62-81).  He’s like Steve Carlton for the 1972 Phillies except he’s not lefty, not an above average pitcher (3.74 ERA/1.39 WHIP), and has never allegedly said that the world is ruled by 12 Jewish bankers meeting in Switzerland.

Ian Kinsler – 2 HRs to up his season total to 28 and tie for the team lead (with Nelson Cruz).  If it weren’t for the .245 AVG, he’d be in the conversation with Cano and Pedroia for most valuable fantasy 2B (.245/101/28/71/23).  Or as an incompetent announcer would phrase it, “You talk about second baseman who can hit…Ian Kinsler…”

Justin Verlander - Snagged win #22 but gave up 4 ERs thanks to 2 HR / 4 RBI by his kryptonite – Shelley Duncan.  Clearly Verlander can only effectively pitch to batters shorter than him and he’s just lucky that there aren’t a lot of 6’5″+ hitters.  The Yankee and Red Sox scouts should be out recruiting locked-out NBA players for playoff rosters.  If there’s one lesson to be learned from Mighty Morphin Power Rangers, it’s that if the other guy is going to go tall, you’ve got to do the same.  If there is a second lesson to be learned from MMPR, it is that if you’re producing a show that has kid actors, it is best to hide their faces behind masks so you can swap in other actors when the original ones get too old or expensive.  Saved By The Bell would still be on if it was set in Milwaukee and each of the kids wore a different sausage costume.  (Kelly Kapowski – Polish sausage.  Slater – Chorizo.  Zach – Bratwurst.  No one qualified for Italian Sausage until the summer season with Stacey Carosi.)

Victor Martinez - Hit a 7th inning grand slam.  His .325 AVG and 89 RBIs are great for a catcher but that was only his 10th HR of the year.  And he’ll have only DH-eligibility next year.  V-Mart is going to be discounted like he’s Wal-Mart.  (Correction: As noted in the comments, V-Mart has 26 games at Catcher this year so should retain C-eligibility next year.)

Daniel Bard - The Sawx’ rumored closer in waiting ruined Tim Wakefield’s billionth chance of being one of the 13 worst pitchers with 200 career wins by posting a 5-spot thanks to a single, HBP, 3 BBs, and the next pitcher giving up a run-clearing double.  That said, aside from having only 2 wins, Bard has been everything a Mr. B could’ve hoped for (2.76 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 66 Ks, 1 pity save).

Jacoby Ellsbury - 4 for 5 with a HR (#25), 3 RBIs, and 2 Runs.  5 more HRs away from 30-30.  And only 2 HRs and 44 SBs away from joining Rickey Henderson and Eric Davis in the illustrious 27-80 club.  (Oddly enough, both done in 1986 – Davis in 415 ABs!).

Manny Acosta – Got the save for the Mets as Parnell and Izzy threw 30+ pitches the night before and no one else in the bullpen had 299 saves.

Carlos Lee - Hit his 15th HR of the year – and his 3rd in the past 8 games.  Maybe El Caballo doesn’t need to be taken to the glue factory just yet.

Andrew McCutchen – The Dread Pirate HR’d twice against the Astros.  He’s now at 81/22/85 but only 20 SBs and .269.  Jeff Francoeur has 20 SBs.  Braun has more than 20 SBs.  Can’t the Pirates hire Omar Moreno to be his Davey Lopes?

Chris Carpenter - Shut out the Brewers on 4 hits, 2 BB, and 5 Ks.  He also allegedly yelled an expletive at Nyjer Morgan.  Maybe he just mispronounced his name.

Rafael Furcal – Another HR – his 4th in the last 8 games.  He had 4 in his first 63 games.  Even with the sudden power burst, wow do his stats look bad this year.  .215 AVG?  5 SBs?  When did Rafael Furcal turn into Rafael Belliard?

Roy Oswalt – The 2nd best Roy in Philly is looking close to his old magical self again with a 7 IP, 7 K, 2 ER effort vs. Atlanta.  I’m having a premonition – Oswalt pitches well through the regular season + 1st round of the playoffs, makes some bad throws in the championship series, says he’s going to retire to spend more time with his family and tractor in Mississippi, and then end up playing again in 2012, 2013, and 2014.  It’s just the Mississippi way.

Jemile Weeks – 4 for 5, now batting .303 with 22 doubles, 21 SBs, and 0 HRs.  Growing up, Jemile was always the fast one, Rickie was the strong one, and Nynind’haph was the seductive one.

Brett Pill - 2 games, 2 HRs, for the Giant rookie 1B who mashed in AAA the past two years while the Giants skipped over him to promote rookie tease sensation Brandon Belt.  Proof once again that when grabbing for the Belt, it’s better to be safe and take the Pill first.