Fantasy Baseball Advice

There’s a saying in Arizona, “Just when you get really good at your job, your career hits a wall and a Mexican comes along and takes the job from you.”  The only difference in Krispie Young‘s case is that Gerardo Parra is Venezuelan.  Krispie was literally the only one hitting on one of my teams and now… I’m crying into my soup, because the soup was bland and my tears are salty.  I’m resourceful.  But that’s one sonavawrench thrown into my team’s plans!  As of press (post? blog? this shizz?) time, details were scant and info was un-nigh and far between.  The D-Backs are saying it’s a shoulder bruise, but he’s going for an MRI.  Hopefully, the MRI doesn’t reveal any structural damage or structurel demega on a typewriter with keys transposed.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday for fantasy baseball:

SIKE!  Before we get into today’s roundup, we have a double SIKE!  First, “SIKE” is for a huge announcement we have coming later today.  The second “SIKE!” is the podcast is up for download.  The announcement is actually talked about a bit on the podcast.  So you get a sneak peek (a sneak listen?) if you so choose to… It’s something I’m proud of that isn’t mustache related.  I think you guys (4 girls) are gonna love it too.  Anyway II, here’s the roundup and podcast:

Download from iTunes

Download directly the Razzball Podcast.

Justin Upton – Has no home runs and no RBIs and is batting .212.  Don’t worry though, it’s only a jammed thumb he’s been nursing.  Nursing a thumb?  Thumb sucker!  The injury to his thumb was rumored to happen when Kirk Gibson missed a meeting and a substitute coach let Justin lead a rousing game of 7-up.  Little did he realize the strength of Paul Goldschmidt would injure his thumb.  Upton sat yesterday and he’s going for an MRI today, too.  Hey, if Diamondbacks send a pitcher for an MRI, they can get a pickup game in the waiting room!  I’m sure one day of rest will fix something that’s been bothering Upton for a week.  For those without the sarcasm gene — or sanscasm — I’m concerned about Upton.  Too soon to panic.  Sit tight.  Simon didn’t say sit tight.  Gotcha.

Santiago Casilla – Got the save yesterday and backing up what Bochy had said earlier about Casilla being first in line, which backs up what I said last week when I grabbed Casilla only to drop him the next day and watch Rudy pick him up.  FMFBBL.

Gio Gonzalez – 7 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 8 Ks.  Yum-yum.

Brad Lidge – Got the save yesterday as Johnson keeps Eeny Meeny Miney and Moe’ing his closers.  So friggin’ stupid.  HanK-Rod has a zero ERA and strikes out everyone; Lidge puts runners on every game and it gets harrowing!  (Gets harrowing?  It sounds like I’m writing crappy Buffy fan-fiction.)

Colby Lewis – Mr. Popular on Razzball’s 2012 expert leagues overcame a Sparky Anklebiter 2-run HR in the 1st inning to deliver a very solid win in Boston (7 IP, 2 ER, 8 baserunners, 7 Ks).  The jeers in Boston started with “Hey Colby — you stink like cheese” and “Hey Colby — go back to your college in Maine with your frigin’ liberal ahtsy fahtsies” to “Hold me, Colby” by the fat drunk girl in the Nomah jersey.

Josh Hamilton – 3-for-5 with a HR and 5 RBIs.  Now at 5 HRs and 11 RBIs with a .413 AVG.  Someone’s got his eye on the MVNK award (Most Valuable Non-Kemp).

Mike Napoli – 3 for 5, 4 RBIs, 3 runs, 2 homers and a 1B with catcher eligibility.

Giancarlo Stanton – 1-for-3 as he was moved to 6th in the order.  This is what Ozzie was thinking about for the last 5 games during his exile.  So that means Stanton’s gonna have to hit, like, 40 homers in a game to convince Ozzie he was wrong.  You gotta better chance of Ozzie being named Little Havana’s Man of the Year.  Andy Garcia’s got that shizz on lock for a decade anyway.

Heath Bell – Throws a scoreless 9th for his first save.  Now down to a 9.00 ERA.  It says something when that’s actually pretty good considering all the drafted closers this year.

Hanley Ramirez – Game winning 3-run HR at Crayola Canyon.  No es mal contente!

Starlin Castro – 2-for-4 with his 7th steal.  You know who loves Castro (the non-killing people one)?  This guy with two thumbs, a mustache, two eyes, a terrible Jersey accent and a cougar girlfriend.  That’s who!  (But doesn’t own him anywhere.  Sad trombone.)

Ryan Dempster – 6 IP, 0 ER, 6 baserunners, 8 Ks.  Whenever I see his name I can’t help singing, “Demps and a bump, Demps and a bump, we like the starters that go Demps and a bump!”  Maybe it’s just me.

Asdrubal Cabrera – Could miss a few days with a death in his family.  It wasn’t Miggy or Melky.  Anyone hear from Everth Cabrera recently?

Kyle Lohse – 7 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 6 Ks.  Mr. April throws another beaut.  His ERA is sub-1.00.  Maybe he can give some pointers to Lincecum.

Austin Jackson – Just when you want to believe he’s turned a corner, he goes 0-for-4 with 3 Ks…..against the Royals….with Bruce Chen pitching (for the first 2 Ks).

Adam Lind – 3-for-3, 3 RBIs with his 1st homer.  I’m not going to mention how you wanted to drop him so bad because he had 9 bad games in a 162 game season, but I’m warning you now.  If he goes on a tear, I’m gonna take off the gloves and not only mention it by saying I’m not mentioning it, but I’m going to actually mention it.

Jose Bautista – 1-for-2, 2 RBIs and his 2nd homer.  Maybe he doesn’t want to spite me by having his first bad season after it took two years for me to like him.

Brett Lawrie – 1-for-4 with his 2nd homer.  #outofthe7hole

Javy Guerra – Blew yesterday’s save.  Over/under that Jansen is the closer by July moves to June.

Jason Heyward – 1-for-4 with his 4th steal.  Did someone buy him for Christmas a ticket to the Davey Lopes SAGNOF seminar?

Drew Smyly – 6 IP, 0 ER, 8 baserunners, 4 Ks vs. the Royals.  Obviously a solid start, but I haven’t changed my opinion on him from last time.  Outside of deep leagues, it’s tough to own him.

Yovani Gallardo – Nice home start against Dodgers (7 IP, 2 ER, 8 baserunners, 7 Ks).  Even better — just one BB after 7 BBs in his first two starts.  Then K-Rod comes in and lets Ethier go-yardo to blow the lead.  At least he got the quality start, right QSers!

Mat Gamel – 2-for-3, 3 runs, 1 RBI and a slam & legs.  1st homer of the year, but his 3rd steal.  Guess if you’re trying to replace Prince, it’s best to start at steals and work your way up from there.

Brett Gardner – 2-for-2, 3 runs, 1 RBI and a steal.  Here’s an idea for those that lost Ellsbury.  After Gardner is sitting out a game and his owners are frustrated, try to trade a small piece for him.  I think he gets 50 steals.

Mark Teixeira – Out a few days with influenza.  A-Rod said, “Don’t look at me.  I only have herpes.  No flu.”

Johan Santana – 1 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 5 baserunners.  Left after having throwing 55 pitches.  He should have to donate this game’s salary to the victims of Bernie Madoff.

Wei-Yin Chen – 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 8 baserunners, 4 Ks.  First game: 5 2/3 IP; 2nd game: 5 1/3 IP, and by the 6th inning the Orioles are hungry again for another pitcher.

Wandy Rodriguez – 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 3 Ks.  You’d take that start from Wandy every day and twice on Muesday.

Johnny Damon – Should be ready in a week.  Those with a “Good Hair” category in their league should be pumped.

Gordon Beckham – 0-for-3.  Now hitting .103.  It’s getting so bad that they pinch hit Fukudome for him.  Or maybe Fukudome thought he heard his name when Ventura realized that Beckham was coming up for a critical 9th inning AB.

Jesus Montero – 1-for-4 as the Mariners gave him the start at catcher (3rd of year!) and DH’d John Jaso.  That’s how much they didn’t want to start Miguel Olivo.

Jamie Moyer – 7 IP with no ER at Coors.  Granted, only 1 K and against the Padres but still.  Hope they have tapioca pudding at the post-game buffet.

Jon Lester – 2 IP, 7 ER, 12 baserunners.  Fickin’ ay.  Give ‘em some chicken and beer if it’ll stop him from throwing a crappy start like this again.

Cincinnati Reds – Their 4th through 8th hitters last night (Rolen, Bruce, Ludwick, Stubbs, and Hanigan) are all hitting .200 or less.  At least they’re not clogging up the bases right, Dusty?

Chase Utley – Phils’ GM said Utley’s knee “seems to be improving.”  Last week the GM said Utley’s knee “seems to be improving.”  So Utley isn’t the only thing that’s broken.

This is the league we won last year hosted by Scott White of CBS Sports.  Yay, us.  Okay, new year, new league.  Well, not so fast.  Last year’s league coasted through the season in first place from about May on and if you were industrious enough to click on that link, you’ll see it looks like a bit of a mess.  We won with Freddy Sanchez and Skip Schumaker?  We didn’t just win; we won in a walk.  I don’t tell you to beat into your heads how good we are (maybe a little).  I tell you this so you know how deep the league is you’re about to look at.  No, I don’t like Clint Barmes, but if he’s getting ABs at MI in this here league, he’s worth a roster spot.  Anyway, here’s our 2012 fantasy baseball team with thoughts on different draft picks:

For sake of clarity:  12 teams, NL-Only, Roto, 5 x 5 — C, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, Util, BN, BN, BN — P, P, P, P, P, P, P, P, P, BN, BN, BN, BN, DL, DL

C – Ryan Hanigan $4
C – Geovany Soto $11
1B – Gaby Sanchez $17
2B – Aaron Hill $13
3B – Pablo Sandoval $24
SS – Alex Gonzalez $3
MI – Clint Barmes $6
CI – Ryan Zimmerman $26
OF – Jay Bruce $27
OF – Tony Campana $5
OF – Jason Kubel $10
OF – Laynce Nix $0 (free round)
OF – Justin Upton $36
U – Gerardo Parra $1
Bench – Stephen Lombardozzi $0 (free round)
Bench – Chase d’Arnaud $0 (free round)
Bench – Tony Gwynn $0 (free round)
Bench – Brett Jackson $4

P – Trevor Cahill $10
P – Daniel Hudson $19
P – Anibal Sanchez $14
P – Ricky Nolasco $4
P – Juan Nicasio $4
P – Chris Narveson  $1
P – Aaron Harang $2
P – Javy Guerra $11
P – Luke Gregerson $8
Bench – Brad Lidge $0 (free round)
Bench – Brandon Lyon $0 (free round)
Bench – Travis Wood $0 (free round)

THAT’S NOT SAGNOF… THIS IS SAGNOF!

Saves and steals were going for really high prices.  Marmol, who I like, went for $18 (a price I don’t like him at), Axford went for $18, Madson at $19… The list goes on; I won’t bore you (further).  So we overpaid for Gregerson praying he would sneak some saves and we have Guerra.  Um, blech.  We’ll need to acquire some saves off waivers or in a trade, which is totally doable, so there’s that.  For those with an advanced degree from the College of Fantasy Baseball at Charleston, Kenley Jansen went for $8, but it was early in the draft and we didn’t know we’d be hamstrung without saves.  Yes, in hindsight, the right move would’ve been to get Jansen, but then we would’ve been paying $19 for all of the Dodgers saves, which is kinda absurd.  As for the other half of SAGNOF, our team felt pretty lead-footed so we grabbed Campana to kill those cockroaches.  With only the crap-oika of Byrd, Soriano and DeJesus ahead of him, ABs should be had.  At $5, if he gets 25 steals, he’s a bargain.  To back up that gamble, we invested in Brett Jackson.  When he is called up, we’ll be a strong bargaining chip or we just insert him in our lineup over, say, Laynce Nix.

RICKY NOLASCO IS A FRIEND OF RAZZBALL? OH, HELLS NO

As kinda alluded to in the lede, in a league this deep, you’re not going to have a team where you like all the guys.  Maybe I’ll grow to like Nolasco, but at $4 we just need him to have 150 Ks and an ERA south of 4.50.  I kinda hate his guts though, so I hope that hatred doesn’t manifest itself into self-fulfilling prophecy where he gives us a 7.50 ERA.  Aaron Harang isn’t really a friend of Razzball either, but you know what makes up for all of this?  Sweet, sweet Anibal!  (Please let his shoulder be okay.  Thank you, whoever I’m addressing right now.)

“YOU ALWAYS TELL US NOT TO TAKE BENCH BATS.  WHAT GIVES YOU, GOOFTARD?!”

It’s a deep, weekly league and we need some flexibility when the best bat on waivers is Henry Blanco.  For most of you, you don’t need four bench bats, three of which are in the minors.  In very deep leagues, you should take some bench bats.  A 12 team, mixed league isn’t a very deep league.  How do you know when you’re in a deep league?  When you’re looking at starting Rico Suave in your Utility spot.

IN OCTOBER, I HAVE AN APPOINTMENT FOR SEX WITH JAY BRUCE

I hope.  Or I’m gonna wanna kill him, because as mentioned in the podcast and multiple times on the site, people are lower than I am on Bruce this year and I’m getting him everywhere.  I mean, like, everywhere everywhere.  I may end up with him on an AL-Only team.  Why are people down on Bruce?  I’m confounded in my perplexatude!  (Perplexatude isn’t yet a word, but I’m gonna start a grassroots campaign to try to change that.)  Bruce just came off a great year and he’s still young.  What, you people need me to shine a flashlight on him like how Ron Roenicke gets Nyjer Morgan’s attention?

Here’s a post that’s gonna make you wanna slap ya mama and call her Frances Fisher.  The other day I told you how to draft your pitchers for 2012 fantasy baseball.  I laid it out to you nice and simple (if you have a degree in “What The Hell Is Grey Talking About?”  Not a PhD, mind you.  Just a BS.)  Today, we forget all that jabberwocky on the who-ha and get down to business old school-style (which means if you don’t comprehend, I will hit you over the head with a baseball bat signed by Joe Clark.)  What I’m hoping to lay out to you is who do you draft 2nd if you’ve drafted so and so first.  I think it might be helpful to go through pairings for your 5 outfielders, all your middle and corner infielders too.  I’m not sure I’ll have the time or patience to do them though.   We’ll see!  Or not.  Your choice.  For easy reference, the royal we will be using the top 10 2012 fantasy baseball rankings and the top 20 2012 fantasy baseball rankings.  I’m going to assume you’re in a 12 team, 5×5, MI, CI, 5 OF, 1 Utility, 1 Catcher league.  Anyway, here’s some pairings for the first two rounds of 2012 fantasy baseball drafts:

Miguel Cabrera – I’d put him with just about anyone, but another 1st baseman.  The reality of the situation is you want to get someone that is going to give you a few steals, say, 10.  A third baseman would work, but it might be unrealistic to think you’re going to get Longoria.  That leaves you with Wright.  That doesn’t sound too shabby.  Think about how for the last five years prior to 2011 and you would’ve loved to have Wright and Miggy on the same team.  I say, live in the past and do it.  But I’d say “Do it” like Ben Stiller in the Starsky & Hutch remake.  Now it’s totally not ideal to grab Wright if you think Miggy will get 3rd base eligibility.  Right now, I put it at about 85% that he will have 3rd base eligibility within a few weeks of Opening Day, so if you wanna grab an outfielder instead, I’m not hating the game or the playa (that’s not Spanish for beach).  I say grab Andrew McCutchen or Jay Bruce.  Wanna go for a 2nd baseman?  Kinsler might be there.  Swiggy with one of those three looks real nice to me.  Your team would be balanced heading off to the third pick.  Someone like Reyes or Hanley would also work, though they might not be there.  Now, the risk with not grabbing a 3rd baseman is if Miggy starts treating grounders at third like they’re empty beer cans and starts booting them.  Then you may have punted 3rd and Miggy is sent back to first before his 3rd base eligibility kicks in.  Kicks being the operative word.  Really, as long as you avoid a 1st baseman, catcher and a starter while getting some combo of power and speed, you should be fine.  For those of you who are thinking you can grab a 1st baseman and then move Miggy to 3rd two weeks in, you’re screwed if Miggy doesn’t get 3rd base eligibility, even if that possibility is only slim.  And, yes, that’s the only time Miggy and slim will ever be used in a sentence.  In summation, don’t put unnecessary risk on the table in the first two rounds.

Albert Pujols – More or less the same deal as Miggy, obviously without the possible 3rd base eligibility caveat.  I wouldn’t worry about anything other than trying to get a 2nd pick with at least 10 steals, and no 1st baseman, catcher or starter.

Joey Votto – You could pair Votto with Yuniesky Betancourt and you’d be fine.  Votto’s that good.  Wouldn’t be surprised if he’s a number one pick next year.  Let’s run away together, Joey!  Wait, what am I saying?  Oh, pairings, right.  Yeah, you don’t want Votto with a 1st baseman, obviously.  He’s similar to Miggy and Pujols.  You want a third baseman, but he can work with just about anything.

Jose Bautista – Hey, something other than a 1st baseman.  Yay, Joey Bats!  Anyone but a 3rd baseman would work.  You really want a 1st baseman.  (This is a common theme.  Leave the first two rounds with a 3rd baseman and a 1st baseman and you’re in better shape than the schmohawk who took Hanley and Cano.)  Also, I worry that Bautista’s average might bottom out a little (to the .265 range), so I’d avoid a guy like Kinsler or Stanton.  You don’t want to leave the 2nd round with a potential combined average of .260.  If you take Baustista and a 3rd baseman because you think Bautista can play your outfield, you’re overthinking.  Think of Bautista as a 3rd baseman.  If during the season you need to put him in the outfield because you picked up a 3rd baseman off waivers, then more power to you.  Right now you don’t put him in the outfield because then you’re only going to draft 4 outfielders and scrounge for a 3rd baseman.  Your 3rd baseman is gonna be crap and you’re gonna end up with Bautista there anyway and you’re gonna be short at outfield.  One thing you can do later on is draft a 3rd baseman at your corner infidel slot.  Then if he does well, you can move him into 3rd, Bautista into your outfield and have the flexibility to grab a 1st baseman or 3rd baseman off waivers for your corner slot.

Evan Longoria – Since Longoria’s speed is a little wonky, I’d have no problem pairing him with a guy like Kemp, McCutchen or Reyes.  Kemp might not be realistic though considering he’s been going first in some mocks.  In my fantasy fantasy world, they’d both be there though.  Same goes for Ellsbury.  I’d even pair Longoria with Pedroia since he usually gives hella at-bats and a decent average. Someone like Kinsler or Stanton aren’t terrible, but you’re putting yourself in a potential average hole that you’ll need to dig out of later.  Just keep in mind, Longoria’s average and steals may need help.

Matt Kemp – Position-wise, he doesn’t go with many.  Stats-wise, he goes with everyone, except a pitcher.  This is probably why he’s going number one overall in mocks.  The problem with that is you draft Kemp and you have one outfielder but still need four more of those and have no infielders.  That guarantees you will leave the 2nd round missing at least two of 2nd base, 1st base or 3rd base.  In the best case scenario, you draft Kemp and Longoria or Wright, so you don’t have to worry about 3rd base.  If you get Kemp and Longoria or Wright, you’ll need to pray your Hosmer, Konerko or other 1st base pick works out.  Otherwise, it might be a long season.  Remember, Hosmer looks great right now, but if he was a sure thing, he’d be going in the first round.  If you can get Kemp and Prince Fielder, then more power to you, though that seems like a pipe dream in the mocks I’ve seen.  Kemp and Kinsler is okay, but then you have no 1st baseman or 3rd baseman and you’ll be up against teams with Miggy, Pujols, Longoria, Prince etc.  I.e., you’ll be doomed.  Kemp plus another outfielder is you throwing in the towel after the first two rounds.

Troy Tulowitzki – This isn’t about pairing, but I don’t see how I’m going to draft Tulo in any league this year.  Just going too early for my taste.  Any the hoo!  If I do, I’d give a lookie-loo to a 1st baseman or 3rd baseman, Sam I am, ma’am.  Since Tulo is a power threat at a normally weaker position, I’d also take a speed/power outfielder (McCutchen, CarGo).  You are dealing with more risk though if you go the speed route with your second pick because if Tulo craps out with another injury and you have, say, McCutchen, you may only get around 35 homers combined from your first two picks while Fielder can produce that by himself.  I’d also be wary of going with CarGo.  Not because of the team thing, but more because of the injury-prone thing. I don’t love the idea of Cano and Tulo.  You’re all middle infield.  Why don’t you just go and marry Adam Everett?  Realistically, if you have to draft Tulo in the top 5 to get him, you’re gonna be looking at Wright, Beltre or Bruce at the end of the 2nd round.  I’d take any of them, but now with Bruce, you will have no corner infidels.  It’s precarious.  (Do you see why I always try to go 1st base or 3rd base in the 1st round?)

Justin Upton – Upton is similar to Kemp.  No outfielders with him.  You really should take a corner man.  Longoria’s great if he’s still there, Fielder will work wonders and clean up after himself!

Prince Fielder – I’d take Longoria with Fielder, I’d also take Fielder with Longoria.  See how that works?  Since Fielder is power first, I’d pair him with Reyes, Hanley or McCutchen too.  He’s a similar pairing to Pujols and Miggy.  Kinsler?  Fine!  Wright?  Great!  Instead of gum, chew bacon!  It all works!

Adrian Gonzalez – He could have a bit more risk than Fielder on the average side, but for our purposes he’s nearly identical to Fielder in projections and pairing.

Robinson Cano – No Kinsler or Pedroia.  Similarly to Tulo, since Cano is a power threat at a normally weaker position, I’d take a speed/power outfielder (McCutchen, CarGo), a 1st baseman or a 3rd baseman.  I’d try to avoid Reyes or Hanley.  You don’t want to have to scrounge together an outfield and two corners leaving the 2nd round.

Jacoby Ellsbury – You don’t want an outfielder.  You can take Reyes, Hanley, Pedroia or Kinsler, but then you might only have 35-40 homers after two picks and some people are getting that with one pick.  If a 1st baseman (Votto, Fielder) is there, then you just scored.  If no one is there without reaching down to David Wright, you might have yourself a Javid Wrightsbury combo player that goes 60/60.  Or you might get a player that hurts his hamstring and complains the fences are still too far, leaving you wanting Justdrian Gonzaton.  (<–And that’s how you make an already confusing post, more confusing!)

The other day we went over the top 20 third basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball for our 2012 fantasy baseball rankings.  Today, we turn our bejeweled eyeglasses to the top 20 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball.  The top twenty outfielders will need to go to a top 40 then a top 60 then a top 80.  Unfortunately, outfield is pretty shallow.  Guess outfielders come in waves… much like sperm whales.  Oofa!  For five outfielder leagues, this really blows, which is only a positive if you’re a sperm whale.  Zadow!  As always, these top 20 outfielders are broken up into tiers with my projections.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball:

1. Ryan Braun – Went over his projections in the top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

2. Jose Bautista – Went over his projections in the top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

3. Matt Kemp – Went over his projections in the top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

4. Justin Upton – Went over his projections in the top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

5. Jacoby Ellsbury – Went over his projections in the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

6. Carlos Gonzalez – Went over his projections in the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

7. Andrew McCutchen – Went over his projections in the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball.  This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Pence.  I call this tier, “These players.  ‘What Grey wants in every league, Alex?’”  The outfield isn’t quite as deep as it should be considering there’s three of these suckers playing at any given moment on all teams and the Reds have four.

8. Mike Stanton – Went over his projections in the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

9. Jay Bruce – What we got from Bruce last year may not have been totally Boss, but a guy that can give you a 30+ homer and 8+ steal season is valuable nowadays.  If Bruce manages to pull a rabbit out of his hat, he could improve in all five categories and there will be a magician somewhere wondering why Jay Bruce has his rabbit.  2012 Projections:  90/34/100/.270/10

10. Josh Hamilton – I think the market has finally figured out Hamilton.  No longer is everyone expecting a MVP season every time out.  People have realized he’s Mr. Glass.  When healthy, Hamilton hits homers and a solid average, runs and RBIs.  When he’s not healthy, you plug in someone else.  In 12 team mixed leagues, it’s much easier to do that than in deep AL-Only ones so keep that in mind when drafting.  (In AL-Only leagues or any leagues with less waiver wire options, I’d move Hamilton down to the next tier.)  2012 Projections:  75/27/85/.295/7

12. Nelson Cruz – Take the above and just “find” Hamilton and “replace” with Cruz.  I think the market has finally figured out Cruz.  No longer is everyone–Well, you can do it on your own.  2012 Projections:  70/30/85/.260/10

12. Hunter Pence – He’s a square peg in this round tier.  Everyone else in this tier has crazy upside and some potential pitfalls.  Pence is steady as she goes, Raconteurs.  Last year he hit a few less homers, but I could see him actually hitting a few more homers this year because he won’t be playing under the tyranny of the recently-exiled Ed Wade’s Toupee.  (Was actually surprised Astros fans weren’t more excited about the disposal of the Toupee, but, then again, I don’t think there are Astros fans.)  2012 Projections:  95/25/100/.280/10

13. Curtis Granderson – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Victorino.  I call this tier, “How is this tier different than all other tiers?  This tier I’m going to pass over.”  Went over his projections in the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

14. Matt Holliday – I’m done with Holliday until next year or the year after when he falls into the tier of outfielders with guys like Vernon Wells.  He’s still too coveted for what he used to do rather than what he’s about to do.  Oh, and please don’t ask in the comments if this means I would never draft Holliday.  I would take Pence, Cruz and Bruce before him and I’ve seen Holliday taken before them, so how am I drafting Holliday?  I’m not taking four outfielders in the course of one pick, i.e., I’m not drafting Holliday before others so I’m not getting him.  Sorry to longtime readers who had to read that, but I feel like I always get these questions around the time of rankings.  2012 Projections:  85/24/90/.305/5

15. Lance Berkman -  Went over Berkman’s projections at the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball post.

16. Shane Victorino – We had a good run.  Victorino and I.  It’s come to an end.  Howard’s banged up, Utley’s a nail clipping incident away from the 15-day DL and Rollins has more miles on him than your Chrysler LeBaron.  Victorino’s runs and RBIs will be affected.  His speed is affected by his age, and he’s not a big power threat.  If he falls far enough I could see maybe taking him, but it’s time to bid him aloha.  The goodbye version of aloha, that is.  2012 Projections:  85/15/55/.275/20

17. Michael Morse – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here into the top 40 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball.  I call this tier, “I’ll happily reach for one of these guys if I have to, in the non-sexual way.  Though it’s kinda sad this is the third tier of outfielders that I’m excited about.  Times is tough, yo.”  Went over Morse’s projections at the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball post.

18. Desmond Jennings – I already went over my Desmond Jennings 2012 fantasy.  While I wrote it, a leprechaun with a broken GPS looking for a rainbow appeared out my window.  2012 Projections:  80/16/65/.275/35

19. B.J. Upton – Honestly, I might be the only fantasy baseball ‘pert who doesn’t mind Fellatio Upton.  Sure, he hits for a wonky average, but so does your mom.  (Actually, I don’t know how well your mom hits for average.  Though she looks like she can’t leg out many infield hits on those cankles.)  Upton hits for power and steals bases.  I’m willing to go out on a limb that he can luck into a .260 average one of these years with his wheels and still go 20/40.  At 27 years of age, this is the year I’m betting on.  2012 Projections:  80/20/85/.250/40

20. Adam Jones – He has a few strikes against him.  But games haven’t started yet?!  Strikes against him was a figure of speech, Random Italicized Voice.  Jones’s ground ball rate isn’t great, which makes me think we’ll need to be lucky to get over 25 homers and his walk rate is near abysmal.  A guy that can give 25/12/.285 is valuable though in today’s bear market, which only sounds like a grocery store in The Castro.  2012 Projections:  80/25/90/.285/12

Went over the catchers, 1st basemen, 2nd basemen and shortstops and top 20 3rd basemen for 2011. Guess what’s next!  No, not pitchers. Read the title, man.  In 2010, there were only 5 outfielders that hit 30 homers, this year there were 9.  It isn’t exactly like a bleached Sammy Sosa is sticking players with needles, but at least the rich got a little richer — yay, capitalism!  Steals were still in abundance, and that doesn’t seem like it’s going anywhere any time soon.  There were 14 outfielders who stole 30 bases with Michael Bourn still eating the baby out of the king cake.  Since outfield is a deep position, I’m going to turn this one to 40.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 outfielders for 2011 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:

1. Matt Kemp – In the preseason, I ranked him 12th overall for all players.  Find another ‘pert who ranked him that high last year.  You’re wasting your time, you won’t find them.  I ranked him as the 2nd outfielder overall.  Just off Ryan Braun.  He was drafted on average 26th overall and some ‘perts had him in the 40′s.  He wasn’t an obvious pick.  2010 was not a good year, but he dropped his ball and anchor — or is it whips and chains? — and asked you to say his name.  In the preseason, I said, “A total off year in 2010.  That’s clear.  He still hit 28 home runs and stole 19 bases.  Sure, he hit .249, but he’s a career .285 hitter and his BABIP shows he was horribly unlucky last year.  Yes, his Ks went up, but what happens when someone is unlucky?  They press and start swinging at more pitches outside the strike zone.  At 26 years old for the majority of 2011, now is not the time to give up on Kemp.”  You can’t make that shizz up.  Okay, you can, but it would be pretty easy to double-check it.  Preseason Rank #2, 2011 Projections:  100/30/105/.285/22, Final Numbers: 115/39/126/.324/40

2. Jacoby Ellsbury – And as right as I was on Kemp, I didn’t see any of this Ellsbury season coming.  About a month into the season I even compared Ellsbury to Gardner.  While Gardner didn’t have a bad season, Ellsbury came out of nowhere with power that made him way more valuable.  But the whole “came out of nowhere” thing makes me think we’re looking at a career year for Ellsbury.  Preseason Rank #21, 2011 Projections:  90/7/70/.290/45, Final Numbers: 119/32/105/.321/39

3. Ryan Braun – In honor of The Hebrew Hammer, I wrote this about three weeks ago on Yom Kippur so I’ll make this fast.  Zing!  BTW, what’s the only thing you’re allowed to eat during Yom Kippur?  Atone-mints.  Zadow!  The fact that Braun wasn’t the number one outfielder with the year he had is more an (old) testament to the guys above him.  Preseason Rank #1, 2011 Projections:  105/32/120/.295/15, Final Numbers:  109/33/111/.332/33

4. Curtis Granderson – It sure was fun while it was going on, but now that Grandy’s 2011 is over it’s time to get real, I mean, was he for real?  God, no.  Will depend on where he gets drafted next year, but off the top of my head I’ll say he will be overrated next year.  Preseason Rank #27, 2011 Projections:  70/25/80/.260/15, Final Numbers:  136/41/119/.262/25

5. Jose Bautista – Went over him in the top 20 3rd basemen post.

6. Justin Upton – There’s guys that will repeat 2011 for a few years if they can avoid injury like Braun and there’s guys like Grandy and Melky.  Upton’s not a Melky or Grandy.  He’s a Braun.  Though Upton’s a lot more the Upton we saw this year than Braun was the Braun that we saw this year.  And that sentence wasn’t half as confusing in my head.  Preseason Rank #7, 2011 Projections:  85/26/95/.270/20, Final Numbers:  105/31/88/.289/21

7. Michael Bourn – There’s a few Razzball concepts that just work perfectly, if I can be so immodest.  SAGNOF is one.  It becomes apparent when you see ESPN rank someone like Bourn 7th overall.  Imagine on April 15th you were to trade Bourn straight up for Justin Upton then grab someone off waivers like Coco Crisp.  Your league would’ve had a conniption.  People would’ve immediately started sending notarized letters to your commissioner, using synonyms for unfair that they found in the thesaurus.  Preseason Rank #40 1/2, 2011 Projections:  80/3/40/.265/45, Final Numbers: 94/2/50/.294/61

8. Melky Cabrera – First player to come out of nowhere, but I don’t think he was the 8th ranked outfielder.  (I know it seems like I recap the players according to the ESPN Player Rater then disagree with it every step of the way, but c’est la vie, as Francouer would say.)  Melky’s stats made him a great third outfielder, solid across the board production.  As for where this season from Melky came from, he’s being seriously aided by plate appearances.  706 PA’s last year for 18 homers and 20 steals?  If his PA’s fall into the 550 range as they had most years prior to 2011, his stats are gonna look like Mike Aviles.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  102/18/87/.305/20

9. Alex Gordon – I recapped Alex Gordon’s season already.  I wrote that while stuffing a duck’s gullet for some foie gras.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  101/23/87/.303/17

10. Carlos Gonzalez – I knew CarGo wasn’t repeating his 2010, gave you preseason projections that were almost perfect and told you he was overrated.  Yet, I feel like he didn’t disappoint as much as he could have.  How dare you overperform your underperformance!  Preseason Rank #5, 2011 Projections:  90/24/95/.285/20, Final Numbers:  92/26/92/.295/20

11. Hunter Pence – Here’s a guy that is cast in the Braun/Upton mold.  You can set your watch to a decent year from Pence.  Give or take some power, some speed, some average… Well, his stats are always there…thereabouts.  Preseason Rank #10, 2011 Projections:  90/25/90/.290/15, Final Numbers:  84/22/97/.314/8

12. Lance Berkman – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen post.

13. Jeff Francoeur – Imagine if the peasant Royals would’ve actually had some pitching in 2011.  They would’ve easily made the postseason only to be bounced by the Rangers.  The Royals had more runs scored than the Phillies, Brewers and Rays.  As for fantasy, guys that surprise by overproducing are terrific.  But — and unless you’re an alien, there’s always a but — how many fantasy owners actually got these seasons in their entirety?  In deep leagues?  Sure.  You draft a guy like Frenchy and pray, then thank your deity of choice when he pans out.  But in shallow leagues, you look at a guy like Frenchy and maybe pick him up after he does some hitting, then maybe drop him when he stops for a few weeks then maybe you grab him again, but you don’t have these players for the whole season.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  77/20/87/.285/22

14. Michael Morse – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen post.

15. Josh Hamilton – Ellsbury threw me for a loop, Grandy exceeded my expectations by a shizzton and Melky did what no one thought he could with a bunch of plate appearances, but Hamilton once again did exactly what I thought he would.  Good while healthy with “while healthy” having its own solar system.  Preseason Rank #6, 2011 Projections:  85/27/100/.305/7, Final Numbers: 80/25/94/.298/8

16. B.J. Upton – People seem to hate B.J.  I think it’s the low average bias that permeates fantasy.  It’s odd that there’s such a bias when average is the hardest thing to predict.  Hate on low power or low speed, but low average?  It’s a horn bet.  Preseason Rank #19, 2011 Projections:  95/17/75/.250/40, Final Numbers: 82/23/81/.243/36

17. Ben Zobrist – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen post.

18. Andrew McCutchen – Last year we found out that The Dread Pirate wasn’t quite ready to take the next step like I thought he would.  He didn’t come up that short, but short enough as they say at dwarf bowling.  I really try to focus on making these blurbs about what the players did last year rather than looking ahead, but that’s easier said than done.  The Dread Pirate is gonna be my 2012 Matt Kemp.  There’s no one more exciting to me for next year that had a slightly down year.  Preseason Rank #2, 2011 Projections:  100/18/60/.290/38, Final Numbers: 87/23/89/.259/23

19. Coco Crisp – At 31 years old, he had his best season.  Coco Crisp must’ve been eating his Lucky Charms.  All of these steals came from a Billy Beane-GM’d team.  I guess there’s market efficiencies with steals now.  You’re probably not asking yourself what I thought of Moneyball, but I’ll tell you anyway.  SPOILER ALERT (but the movie has been out for over a month, you really have that much to do?)  I was kinda disappointed.  To go all EW on you, I’d give it a B, but I was hoping for an A.  Damn you, expectations.  I know Michael Lewis glossed over the fact Zito, Mulder, Hudson and the steroid-fueled Chavez and Tejada were actually a big part of the A’s success so I figured the movie would do the same.  It did.  They want a fairy tale about how some unknowns carried the team to glory.  Yay, Scott Hatteberg is undervalued and he uses a bat carved from a tree that lightning struck!  Not really, but whatever.  I was more disappointed because I was bored during stretches and I didn’t like Jonah Hill at all.  Hey, let’s get the Jew to find value where others are missing it!  Finally, I wanted some unintentional comedy with Royce Clayton playing Tejada.  “Hey, Miggy, do you have diabetes?”  Cut to:  Tejada holding a syringe.  Tejada, “Yes.  Blood sugar low.”  Though that song the daughter sings is hella (do the kids still say this?) catchy.  Should’ve changed the lyrics though:  I’m just a GM stuck in Oakland… I’m kind of sick of being so broke and having my team get to the playoffs only to choke.  Slow it down, make it stop… Miguel Tejada’s arms look like their gonna pop… BTW, if you wanna read movie reviews, my friend has a movie review blog.  Preseason Rank #62, 2011 Projections:  50/6/35/.260/22, Final Numbers:  69/8/54/.264/49

20. Emilio Bonifacio – Went over him in the top 20 3rd basemen post.