Fantasy Baseball Advice

This post is not meant to scream fire in the theater of Razzball.  I’m not saying don’t draft these guys.  I’m not unfriending them.  (I would hide all of their stupid Mafia Wars updates.  Okay, quick rant, I have a friend who emailed everyone that he just had a kid.  Yay for him, I know.  So I emailed him back congrats that the kid doesn’t look like his wife.  Then I go onto Facebook and he just won a cannoli or some shizz on Mafia Wars.  He just got home from the hospital with his newborn and he’s warring with 12-year-olds hiding behind fictitious Mafioso personalities?  Nice.  I wonder in forty years if his kid will email me saying his Dad died then start playing an online video game.)  I’m just saying you need to be aware of certain concerns that I’ve kept to myself about these players.  I’m unburdening myself.  My shrink says it’s good for me.  I still like these players; I just want you to have the whole picture.  Anyway, here’s some concerns for 2010 fantasy baseball:

Miguel Montero – Concern:  Snyder.  I’m worried that Chris Snyder might see more ABs than anyone thinks he will.    Montero sits one game a week?  We’re cool.  Snyder gets two games a week and suddenly Montero will be lucky to match last year’s numbers, forget eclipsing them.

Gordon Beckham – Concern:  Ozzie.  I hate putting my young player, upside cards in the hands of a manager that has been known to be absolutely bonkers.  Beckham could leave Spring Training batting 2nd and still end up being replaced by Omar Vizquel by May.  Jose Mesa would not be the only upset one.

Troy Tulowitzki – Concern:  Less speed, cold start.  I’ve actually expressed these concerns before, but it was done in my mumbly, Milton voice.  Tulo’s never stole anywhere near 20+ bases before last year.  Also, his career April average is .194 and usually doesn’t fully turn it on until June.  What if he starts pressing in June to finally turn it on and it never comes?

Justin Upton – Concern: Youth, expectations.  J-Upside will be a great one for many years to come.  He’ll probably win an MVP within the next five years.  He’s still only 22 for the majority of the 2010 season.  He will give you a 30+ homer, 20+ steal season; I’m just not sure it comes this year.

Josh Hamilton – Concern:  Health.  Well, the concern says it all.  Can he stay healthy for 500 ABs?

Yovani Gallardo – Concern: He’s gonna win the Cy Young and I’m not going to own him.  Okay, the other players on this list I like with concerns.  I’m avoiding YoGa with concerns.  Gallardo went from a huge innings jump from 2008 to 2009 and definitely tired at the end of 2009 (5+ ERA in August and September).  But it wasn’t an arm injury in 2008.  He did some shizz to his knee.  He might make me look stupid.  Oh, Gallardo, you give me turmoil.

Nolan Reimold – Concern: Youth, Achilles.  Some gooftards just don’t get their act together in their second year.  I’m hoping Reimold is not one of them, but that concern is there.  Then you have an Achilles injury that’s taking longer to heal than Achilles’s Achilles.

Ian Stewart – Concern: I’ve overhyped him.  Is he that different than this guy?  Haha, I made you click the link.  Don’t worry, it’s safe for work.  Unless you work with Bill James, then it might be considered porn.

Okay, who put Jerry Blevins 498th?  He’s the greatest LOOGY of all-time… OF ALL-TIME.  Kanye shrug.  We’re using Yahoo for our Fantasy Razzball leagues. (You can win a mother-bleepin’ hot tub; are you kidding me?  Seriously.  Yes, I brought out the one word, “Seriously,” sentence, then brought out the expository sentence to mention I brought out the one word, “Seriously,” sentence.) Yahoo’s drafting and fantasy baseball team setup-ma-whosies is fine.  ESPN has its minuses, Yahoo has its pluses, then read that again in the mirror.  And just like there were problems with ESPN’s fantasy baseball rankings, I have issues with Yahoo’s.  I can’t go over every single difference of opinion, but you could just go to my 2010 fantasy baseball top 300 and use that.  Or go to the Point Shares and use that.  Or buy me an all-exclusive trip to Dubai and I’ll draft for you while skiing in a mall.  Sheik, if you want to go to the food court, may I suggest the ski lift?  That sounds splendid, I hope they have Chik-Fil-A. Anyway, here’s some huge differences in Yahoo’s fantasy baseball rankings compared to mine:

Troy Tulowitzki - 7 at Yahoo, 16 here.  Hey, I like Tulo just as much as the next man, but obviously not if that next man works at Yahoo.  As I’ve said many times before, Tulo’s career high in steals last year was nearly triple his previous career high, including the minors.  And he doesn’t start hitting until June.

Joe Mauer – 8 at Yahoo, 28 here.  I already dropped a Joe Mauer schmohawk bomb.

Justin Upton – 18 at Yahoo, 24 here.  I do enjoy J-Upside, but him at 18 and above Holliday?  Holliday was more valuable than Upton last year, and the year before and the year before and you get it.  No reason to think it suddenly stops this year for Holliday.  In the 2nd round, I want as close to a lock that I can get.  Sorry, Yahoo, now get your shinebox!

Ichiro Suzuki – 27 at Yahoo, 43 here.  I’ve been over his overratedness so much I’m beginning to think overratedness is a word.

Pablo Sandoval – 29 at Yahoo, 58 here.  Here’s what Grey (that’s me!) said about Sandoval, “It’s hard to not like a chubby guy who goes by the nickname, Kung Fu Panda.  Who doesn’t love pandas?  It’s unpatriotic (in China).  I love pandas so much I want a freakin’ panda dog.  If I had a kid, I’m dye the kid to look like a panda.  So, I do like Pablo Sandoval.  But there’s caveats.  He’s not really a home run hitter.  It would not shock me to see him hit 22 homers in 2010.  Also, his average last year looks to be on the high side.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see a .300 average instead of .330.  I like him, just be careful what you’re expecting.”  And that’s me quoting me!

Aramis Ramirez – 47 at Yahoo, 94 here.  Aramis overrated, underlined it.

Yovani Gallardo – 58 at Yahoo, 107 here.  That makes my job passing on him so much easier.

Michael Young – 64 at Yahoo, 93 here.  Young is a nice complimentary pick if you have a few low average guys, but, in a vacuum, Young bores.

Carlos Quentin – 164 at Yahoo, 54 here.  There’s a Carlos Quentin sleeper post and I have him over a 100 spots before in my rankings.  You think I might end up owning Quentin on a few teams?  Rhetorical!  Now remember what I said in the rankings companion piece.  Draft Quentin before someone else does, but that doesn’t mean wa³y before.

Geovany Soto – 172 at Yahoo, 127 here.  I wrote the Geovany Soto sleeper post for a reason.  Recognize!  Or don’t, your choice.

Dexter Fowler – 290 at Yahoo, 151 here.  My Fowler sleeper post was written in September.  Prescient ain’t just a word I can’t spell without Dictionary.com, it’s a state of mind!

I’ve mentioned a few times in the course of the rankings about guys I’d actually own.  In the 2010 fantasy baseball top 100, I say there’s 20 guys I’d actually own.  I’ll even pull the quote for you.  In the F-Her blurb, I said, “If I were to only talk about the guys I would actually own, this top 100 may only be 20 guys long.”  See, I did say it!  So, I lied.  I’d own everyone in the top 100.  I’d own Lincecum, but he’d have to fall to me in the 3rd round; I’d own Mark Reynolds, but he’d have to be around in the 4th round; I’d own Mauer, but he’d have to be around pick 28.  And so on and so forth.  What I mean by there’s only 20 players I’d own is those are the only guys I could actually see myself getting in a draft considering where they’re being drafted and how I assemble a team.  I’d draft Nathan in the 90s, but his ADP is 75, so it doesn’t seem like it’s happening.  This also does not include the top 22 guys overall.  I’d own them all, except Lincecum.  Anyway, here’s the players from ranking 22 to 100 in the top 100 for 2010 fantasy baseball that I’d own:

24. Justin Upton

29. Ryan Zimmerman

30. Kevin Youkilis

33. Joey Votto

34. Curtis Granderson

35. Jayson Werth

36. B.J. Upton

37. Brandon Phillips

40. Robinson Cano

47. Josh Hamilton

54. Carlos Quentin

55. Nelson Cruz

56. Adam Jones

71. Cole Hamels

72. Josh Johnson

73. Cliff Lee

74. Ubaldo Jimenez

76. Ricky Nolasco

77. Josh Beckett

78. Clayton Kershaw

85. Gordon Beckham

86. Raul Ibanez

96. Wandy Rodriguez

97. Chad Billingsley

100. Ian Stewart

And it came out to 24 guys.  Well, I did say, “…this top 100 may only be 20 guys long.”  Turns out I underestimated.  This becomes interesting if you look at how the names break down.  (And by “interesting,” I mean rather pedantic.) In the beginning, I shoot for the cornerstones with Zimmerman, Youk and Votto.  Then I briefly look at 2nd basemen before stocking my outfield with Grandy, Werth, Upton, etc.  Once I have my corners and outfield in good shape, I look at pitchers.  After pitchers, I round out the top 100 with upside and personal favorites.  Now I say I’d own these guys.  Obviously, I wouldn’t own all of them on one team.  Also, who you have in the top 22 dictates who you take later.  Hehe, I said dictates.

Okay, so it’s not the best 2010 fantasy baseball team, but, man, that title sings, right?  This is the best 2010 fantasy baseball team that I can put together when drafting a player from every 12 players, according to my top 300 for 2010 fantasy baseball.  So it would be nice if I was in a league where someone drafted Lincecum in the first round and I was able to take Longoria and Howard, but since they’re both in the first 12, according to the rules I’ve set up for myself, I can’t take them both.  Also, as we all know, once you get into the 100s, there’s wide gaps between ADP and where players are actually taken.  People tend to look at team need over value.  For this exercise, I’m going to limit myself to a player just like in a snake draft, no matter what.  So if I choose Pujols, I can’t take another player until the 24th pick, then a player from somewhere in the next 12 picks.  It should still be my ideal team… Or not.  Let’s see, shall we?  Bee tee dubya, this team is 5×5, one catcher, 5 OFs, MI, CI, 1 UT, 9 P, 3 Bench.  Anyway, here’s the best 2010 fantasy baseball team:

C:  Chris Iannetta (15)

1B: Albert Pujols (1)

2B: Brandon Phillips (4)

SS: Elvis Andrus (10)

3B: Ryan Zimmerman (3)

MI: Alcides Escobar (16)

CI: Ian Stewart (9)

OF: Justin Upton (2)

OF: Adam Jones (5)

OF: Raul Ibanez (8)

OF: Corey Hart (13)

OF: Ryan Ludwick (18)

UT: Brandon Wood (24)

P: Josh Johnson (6)

P: Cliff Lee (7)

P: Matt Cain (12)

P: Jonathan Sanchez (17)

P: Gavin Floyd (21)

P: Mat Latos (23)

P: Francisco Cordero (11)

P: Octavio Dotel (14)

P: Bobby Jenks (19)

BENCH:

P: Brandon Lyon (20)

P: Scott Downs (22)

P: Matt Lindstrom (25)

So what do you think of my fantasy fantasy team?  Don’t like it?  Go to the top 300 and make up your own fantasy fantasy team and post it in the comments.

The other day we went over the top 20 third basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball, finishing up the infield for our 2010 fantasy baseball rankings.  Today, we turn our bejeweled eyeglasses to the top 20 outfielders for 2010 fantasy baseball.  The top twenty outfielders will need to go to a top 40 then a top 60 then a top 80.  What I found overall from ranking the outfielders is that speed’s back like the go-go 80s when half the league was on coke.  So I ranked power outfielders ahead of ones whose value came from speed.  More on that in the post.  As always, these top 20 outfielders are broken up into tiers with my projections.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 outfielders for 2010 fantasy baseball:

1. Ryan Braun – See the top 10 for 2010 fantasy baseball for Ryan Braun’s 2010 projections.

2. Matt Kemp – See the top 10 for 2010 fantasy baseball for Matt Kemp’s 2010 projections.

3. Matt Holliday – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Ellsbury.  I call this tier, “Still number one outfielders.”  See the top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball for Matt Holliday’s 2010 projections.

4. Grady Sizemore – See the top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball for Grady Sizemore’s 2010 projections.

5.  Carl Crawford – See the top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball post for Carl Crawford’s 2010 projections.

6. Jacoby Ellsbury – As mentioned before on this blog, speed guys are a lot like new cars.  The minute you drive a speed guy off the lot, he loses a lot of value.  Don’t believe me, try to trade Ellsbury for a guy of similar value.  A guy who can easily go 10/60 needs to be in the top of the outfield rankings, but I tend to look for speed from SAGNOF middle infielders (Andrus, Everth Cabrera, etc) or later round SAGNOF outfielders (Pierre, Borbon, etc).  Is it nice to have an Ellsbury-type and not have to worry about steals later?  Sure, but if something happens to Ellsbury and your entire team is built to not worry about steals, you may have to worry.  2010 Projections:  105/10/65/.300/60

7. Justin Upton - This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Bay.  I call this tier, “Who said the outfield is deep?”  Above, there’s four power threats and two speed threats, now a guy that went 26/20.  Wow.  Don’t get me wrong, I love Justin Upton, but this is the top of the outfield?  Where did the Carlos Lees, Mannys, Sorianos and Berkmans go?  As mentioned earlier in the preseason, you could’ve found 27 players who contributed 20 steals, but only eleven outfielders that had 30 homers.  Obviously testing for steroids is working better than testing for Red Bull.  re: Upton; His fly balls fell and his homers surged.  Not a great recipe for success.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in a holding pattern in 2010 rather than a huge step forward.  But his holding pattern is still better than most players’ peak and the high ranking is also for his tremendous upside.  2010 Projections:  80/27/95/.290/20

8. Curtis Granderson – Don’t blame me for this ranking; blame the outfield.  Where else am I supposed to rank a guy who can steal 20 bags and hit 30 homers?  I know his splits; I know the so-called psychological toll playing for the Yanks takes; I also know he can pull 30 homers over the short porch without much effort.  As I said when Grandy was traded, the average last year should’ve been higher.  He’s not going to win a batting title, but .275 is doable.  2010 Projections:  110/30/80/.270/20

9. Jayson Werth – It feels like people don’t trust Werth, but he’s been caught stealing 4 times in 44 attempts in the last two years and his power doesn’t look fluky.  From May to September, he hit at least 6 homers every month so it’s not like his numbers were inflated with an insane month or two.  2010 Projections:  85/30/100/.270/18

10. B.J. Upton – He’s definitely shown he can’t be relied on for 20 homers, but you can count on him for 40 steals and 10 homers.  The low average can only partially be written off as bad luck; he also swung at more balls outside the strike zone.  I think they’re tied together.  He was unlucky, started pressing and things got progressively worse.  At least that’s my missing bang theory.  2010 Projections:  90/14/65/.275/40

11. Ichiro Suzuki – Here’s my thought on Ichiro.  Yes, he hits .330+ consistently, but your fantasy baseball team only needs around .280 to be in contention.  You should get .280 with a few .260 hitters, a few .280 hitters and a few .300 hitters.  So Ichiro’s unnecessary average gorging.  2010 Projections:  100/10/55/.330/25

12. Jason Bay – He nearly ended up in the next tier.  What held him out was his ability to steal.  Just don’t trust him like I should considering his year in, year out numbers.  I have this feeling that he will hit 25 homers and steal 5 bags with a .265 average.  My fears are probably unrealistic.  Like my fear of electric eels.  (<–Yes, I’m on Twitter, but I don’t check it much, so, yeah, do what you do.)  2010 Projections:  85/28/105/.270/10

13. Adam Lind – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Markakis.  I call this tier, “Power threats with weak speed.”  There’s instances when I would skip this tier and jump to the next one.  If I drafted Ryan Howard in the first round, I’d want someone from the tier, “Speed threats with weak power.”  (That tier starts in the top 40 outfielders, which can be found in the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings once it’s posted.)  The reason why the power threats with weak speed came first in the rankings is because power is a lot harder to come by than speed.  I know, tell that to 1998 and it would laugh.  Okay, now about Lind.  It’s weird how I feel like sometimes a hitter breaks out and everyone scrambles for him, then other times a hitter breaks out and people are tepid about believing it.  Lind broke out last year.  There’s no reason to believe he’s going to lapse into bust territory this year.  2010 Projections:  85/35/110/.300/2

14. Josh Hamilton – Never to be one to resist a talented guy who just had a tough year, I couldn’t stop myself from putting Hamilton higher than most ‘perts.  Is Hamilton still injury prone?  Dur, of course.  He’s still only 28 entering the 2010 season and he has big time talent.  2010 Projections: 85/28/100/.275/7

15. Andre Ethier – I still find it hard to believe Ethier’s power, so I can’t promise you I wouldn’t skip over Ethier in a draft if I felt a real power squeeze on my fantasy team.  2010 Projections:  80/24/95/.285/7

16. Carlos Quentin – Here’s an extended look at Carlos Quentin for 2010 fantasy baseball.  2010 Projections:  80/28/95/.275/5

17. Nelson Cruz – I was tempted to put Cruz even higher, but then I realized Bill James’s projections of 36 homers and 21 steals with a .284 average shouldn’t be taken at face value.  James sure has it bad for Rangers, huh?  If Cruz were to reach those projections, that’s number one outfielder shizz.  But we’ll try and be a bit more sober with him.  2010 Projections:  80/32/95/.275/15

18. Adam Dunn – Dunn’s projections can be found at the top 20 1st basemen for fantasy baseball post.

19. Adam Jones – A record breaking third Adam makes the top 20 outfielders.  Four seems out of reach, unless when someone says Adam Lambert plays for the other team, they mean a baseball team.  Jones got knocked out of almost all of September with a strained ankle, but he should be ready to go in time for spring training.  At 24, he should be able to take the next step with his power and speed.  I’m very excited about watching Pacman make it rain this year.  2010 Projections:  95/27/85/.280/15

20. Nick Markakis - After last season only true loyalists would stand up and shout, “I am Sparkakis!”  He doesn’t have much more than 25 homer power or 10 steal speed. (He does have more speed, but I think the Orioles are slowing him for risk of injury.)  But he won’t kill you on average, Runs or RBIs.  Not as exciting as once perceived, but still solid.  So maybe it’s “I am Sparkakis” with a period rather than an exclamation point.  2010 Projections:  100/24/100/.300/7