It’s beginning to feel like it’s not an offseason without a trade of Wil Myers. In three short years, he’s gone from the Royals to the Rays and now on to the Padres. Only place he can go from the Padres is the Tokyo Yakult Swallows. They would hope Myers could carry them against their most hated rivals, the Yakuza Spits. The Miller Lite-inspired commercials between the Spits and Swallows in Japan are a real crack up. Tastes great!…Spit it out!…Tastes great!…Spit it out! Before Myers is pushing daisies in the NPB, he’ll bide his time in San Diego and try to right this rapidly sinking prospect boat. “Ice-cold sophomore year right ahead!” In all for realliness, I was planning on jumping back in the Myers sinking ship prior to this trade, and I don’t think it kills his value. Would I prefer he went to Coors? Yeah, well, dur. I also don’t think a 24-year-old former top prospect is washed up just because he had one bad year after fracturing his wrist. Takes time to bounce back from that type of injury and one thing we have is time. Well, you with the oxygen mask and cigarette might have less time. In a few years, we’re going to look back at Myers’s 2014 as it should be viewed now, a blip. I’m about as sure of that as Kilimanjaro rises like Olympus above the Serengeti. Or as sure of it that I’m listening to too much Toto’s Africa. Sure, Petco won’t do him any favors, but if his wrist is at hundred percent there shouldn’t be any problems getting at least 20 homers. Shoot, he could hit 10 homers in just his road games in Coors and Arizona. For 2015, I’ll give him 61/20/72/.277/8. Definitely sleeper material here. Anyway, here’s what else I saw this offseason for 2015 fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Amish text states vociferously that a Quackenbush should not render thou’s biblical nature moot. Stating, “Eroticism is the devil’s electricity, and our brains should not be hardwired to flip any switches when our nature’s bell rings. You may want to churn butter into the Quackenbush–” I just realize I had a smudge on my Amish Schoolchildren Early Education textbook and it’s not Quacken, it’s Quaker. That is my bad. So, Joaquin Benoit could be headed to the DL, and even if he’s not, he’s dealing with a shoulder issue and may not be effective. In every league I needed saves, I’d grab Kevin Quackenbush. And, if truly desperate, I’d even grab Dale Thayer. As for a Quaker bush, well, caution is advised. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
The issue with writing for a site like Razzball, I’ve learned, is that you expend too much mental energy trying to come up with cute ways of saying everything. At least for those of us whose “written humor” is still somewhat of a work in progress, this is true. Needless to say, in just the past minute alone I’ve thought of so many dumb, unfunny ways of saying “I’m back!” that I’m embarrassed to share a single one, and will proceed as dully as possible. Yes, I’ve returned from my three week European extravaganza. There it is. Now instead of flirting with Australian chicks one year out of Uni in hostel bars, I’m back in the States ready to dispense you with the highest quality fantasy advice this country can offer. (You won’t believe how good German Grey is.)
In case you’ve forgotten or are just joining us here at LM for the first time, my goal is to highlight hitters to add for games on the short-slated days of Monday and Thursday. Filling out your lineup on these days is a basic tenet of fantasy leagues with daily moves and to be quite frank, you probably ain’t winning any titles in a competitive unless you put in the time to do this. Prior to my trip I posted here twice a week but that was before I packed my bags and got a soul-sucking office job, so now I’m going to synthesize those into one article that covers both days.Please, blog, may I have some more?
Do you remember the days of riding skateboards all hours of the day with your legs and arms filled with scabs, bruises, and dried blood? A broken bone or a lost fingernail never really stopped most of us. (Actually, I broke my back skateboarding so I had to stop for a while). Searching high and low for any skate videos we could get our hands on, leading us to this epic flick (putting the whole movie would be cruel and unusual punishment for those that have nothing else better to do). Yup, we’re old and it sucks; I go on the DL, and by DL I mean Drinking Longer, with a sprained ankle or a hang nail these days.
Me: “Hey grey, I can’t write this week, my fingernail problem flared up and I can’t type.”
Grey: “It’s not like anyone reads your drivel, so just slap it together. Now go get me a bagel!”
Best internship ever!Please, blog, may I have some more?
As I mentioned in my first/intro OPS post, we’re looking at OPS differential by using expected (x)Homerun and expected (x)BABIP differentials. If you like Captain Planet or laser beams, or want to understand my general approach, then I recommend a gander. If you provide your email below, I can furnish the full list that you can sort. Wordpress doesn’t allow me to copy and paste it all pretty for you.
Let’s start with my xHR formula (PA*Ct%*OFFB%*HR/OFFB%). Here are the top 10 guys likely to drop off from a HR perspective: Albert Pujols, Adam Jones, Justin Morneau, Alexei Ramirez, Mark Reynolds, Charlie Blackmon, Ian Desmond, Brett Lawrie, Hunter Pence and Salvador Perez.
Here are the top 35 guys likely to drop off from a BABIP perspective that you actually might own (meaning I’m excluding the Martin Maldonados of the world): Josh Rutledge, Justin Ruggiano, A.J. Pollock, Josh Hamilton, Stephen Vogt, J.D. Martinez, J.J. Hardy, Eugenio Suarez, Hunter Pence and Matt Adams.
Looking at both xHR and xBABIP differentials, here are guys you might own that I would consider selling in OPS leagues based on their expected vs. actual OPS (the differential is in parenthesis just like this statement. See what I did here?):Please, blog, may I have some more?
The Oakland A’s have been the team to beat in the first half of 2014. They own the best record the majors, their offense, which is comprised of a ragtag bunch of misfits from the other side of the tracks, ranks second among all teams in RBIs and total bases. They lead the league in ERA and WHIP, and they just upgraded their rotation with the acquisition of Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel, all without the help of fat Jonah Hill. You don’t need Andy Serkis’ acting school to show you you’d be a real monkey to doubt these guys. They’ve been just as good from a fantasy perspective. Josh Donaldson, Brandon Moss and Sonny Gray have carried over their success from 2013, and Jesse Chavez, Sean Doolittle and the two-headed catcher platoon of John Jaso and Derek Norris have all been first half surprises. So which A’s can you hitch a ride on for some second half fantasy glory? Jed Lowrie (2-for-4, RBI) can get real hot, real quick, and is currently on a seven game hitting streak, with multi-hit performances in six of those games. You might want to scoop him up before he explodes, or gets injured again. Similarly, Stephen Vogt (3-for-3, HR (4)) has been excellent since receiving everyday at bats and is slashing .435/.480/.652 over the past two weeks. He’s got an 11 game hitting streak (six multi-hit games in that span) and two homers in his past three days, and that catcher eligibility makes him extra valuable. P. Diddy says Vogt or die, so you should grab Stephen while he’s still just under 30% owned. We may be through a little over half of the fantasy season so far, but there’s still plenty of time to ride the Oaktown bandwagon to some fantasy glory, at least until they get to San Antonio. #keeptheAsinOakland!
Here’s what else happened in fantasy baseball Friday night (*All-Star Edition*):Please, blog, may I have some more?
Going back to one of my old favorites, that I didn’t like for awhile, then did like, then loved, then hated, then should’ve loved but hated, then was nonplussed about, then Googled nonplussed to make sure I used it right, then took a nap, then clapped my hands, shot up out of bed and kissed my ‘Donna Martin graduates’ screenshot, scrubbed my undercarriage with my Q-Bert loofah and sat down to write about why you should sell Anibal Sanchez. Anibal’s K-rate is in the dumper. Big enough sample size to be concerned — that’s not what she said! Huh? His velocity is off. More concern. That dirty Sanchez! He hasn’t been great, but he’s been much worse when you throw out favorable luck. His xFIP is at 3.91, and he looks similar to the pitcher he was in 2010 when he had a 7 K/9 and a 3.55 ERA. Only he was in Florida then and against NL teams. I could see Anibal’s ERA continuing to rise and I don’t see much relief for his lack of Ks (currently a 6.9 K/9). 6.9 K/9? Who are you, Chase Anderson? Who the hell is Chase Anderson? I wouldn’t sell Anibal for tickets to see PM Dawn, but I would explore options. Anyway, here’s some more players to Buy or Sell this week in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
In my first ever post on points leagues in the beginning of May, I left you with the closing statement, “POINTS ARE POINTS. SELL THE NAME TO WIN THE GAME.” The premise is simple, don’t worry about the guys who garner all the attention in traditional category leagues. Find ways to score more points, regardless of the players’ name recognition value. Points leagues are their own little fantasy worlds that exist under some vary skewed parameters. Think of points leagues like fetish porn. Razzballin does invoke some interesting imagery as the title of an adult film. Eeeee… Some thoughts just can’t be unremembered. Grab some hard stuff and throw it back to help ease trauma. The foreplay of the season is behind us and July signals the time to really turn it on to make the push for your fantasy playoffs. Let’s get you lubed for some nice 2nd half moves.Please, blog, may I have some more?
Manny Machado‘s epitaph: He always found more success throwing a bat at a ball. Better than Salvador Perez’s: Together again! Machado wasn’t just struggling, he was like that friend of yours that not only is having a rotten time at a party, but also sucks the prettiest girls in the room into his sad funk of despair and before long, the girls are like, “I don’t want to go out and get drunk and party and potentially hook up with you. Your friend Manny Machado is too depressed.” The buzz kill friend. Yesterday, Machado went 5-for-6, 2 runs, 2 RBIs with his 8th homer, and fourth homer in his last seven games (skipping the suspension games). About time he listened to your advice, did a body shot off the tummy of the girl that wants to be a physical therapist and cheered up! I don’t own Machado anywhere this year, due to the knee issue coming into the season, but he just turned 22 years old (almost literally; his birthday was Sunday) and I’ll be all over Machado again next year. Of course, if you can acquire him in a trade this year, by all means, which sounds like it was said by Malcolm X’s less militant brother, Bobby X. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
The Cubs. The lovable losers. The trade first and ask questions later…ers…
Say what you want about what the Cubs are doing, but I liked their blockbuster deal with the A’s. John Kruk was slamming it on Sunday Night Baseball (while my boy Rick Porcello got a bitch slap of regression), but then again I’m a Brewers fan and not a Cubs fan!
Last year, the Cubs sold Scott Feldman for current pickup of the year nominee Jake Arrieta. So that’s one thing they’ve done right! Both the Shark and Jason Hammel weren’t re-signing, and this ridiculous emergence from Arrieta eases the pain of rebuilding a rotation.
But we don’t really care about Wrigley politics, we just want some nasty stats on our fantasy teams. Arrieta has been absolutely unbelievable (only Clayton Kershaw has been better the past month) and he had back-to-back no-nos through 7 prior to Sunday’s start. How legit is this breakout? Is Arrieta a sell high? I’ve seen the highlights and bits of some of the previous starts, but I wanted a deeper look into his stuff and decided to Profile how he looked in yesterday’s great outing against the Nationals:Please, blog, may I have some more?