Fantasy Baseball Advice

We’ve already went over the top 20 catchers for 2008; soon we’ll go over the top 20 2nd basemen for 2008, but right now we’re going over the top 20 1st basemen for 2008. It’s a look back, ya’ll! Don’t worry, soon we’ll look forward, but how you know where you at, if you don’t know where you been? Understand where I’m coming from? B-Real! Looking at the top 20 1st basemen is a lot more exciting than looking at the top 20 catchers for 2008. Because these 1st basemen can actually make a difference? Um, yeah. Dur. As previously noted on this blog, Hardball Times has already looked at our preseason top twenty 1st basemen — that I did on JANUARY 10TH, btw. (Sorry, for the caps, but it’s pretty impressive how right on I am considering when I did the predictions.) Well, now it’s our turn to hold up a reflective surface to our own list. Anyway, here’s the top 20 1st basemen for 2008 and how they compared to where we originally ranked them:

1. Albert Pujols - Going into 2008, Pujols had some question marks due to a lackluster (by his standards) 2007 and a balky elbow. Pujols took a high-grade tear and put up high-grade numbers. Ruth’s Chris USDA Prime, and ya know that! Preseason Rank #1, Preseason Predictions:  110/40/115/.330/2, Final Numbers:  100/37/116/.350/7

2. Lance Berkman - The real difference between the preseason expectations and the actual numbers are the steals, but I’m going to paraphrase something Rudy says, “If speed is not a player’s game, you can’t count on any steals.” Which means you count on steals from Willy Taveras, you do not count on steals from Lance Berkman. Anything you get is a plus. Preseason Rank #7, Preseason Predictions:  110/30/115/.290/5, Final Numbers:  114/29/106/.312/18

3. Mark Teixeira - I thought he’d put up almost exactly the numbers he did put up. Yet, I ranked him at #5 and he came in at #3. What does that tell you? 1st basemen numbers were down? Excellent, Daniel-san. Now catch me something bigger than a fly and put some Catsup on it. Preseason Rank #5, Preseason Predictions:  110/35/120/.305, Final Numbers: 102/33/121/.308/2

4. Aubrey Huff - There’s always a few guys that maintain their hot starts that I will never trust — Cliff Lee, Xavier Nady and Aubrey Huff, to name a few. You can own them; just don’t trust them. To paraphrase what I said earlier in the year, Aubrey Huff reminds me of Mike Lowell. Will he get 15 home runs or will he hit 30? Will he hit .250 or .300? Huff’s an enigma wrapped in a girl’s name. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  96/32/108/.304/4

5. Kevin Youkilis - I was so close in my preseason predictions (I switched Youuuuuuk’s Runs and RBIs because he switched from the top of the lineup to the sixth spot. If people think that’s cheating, here’s something for you), but Youuuuuuuuk jumping from 14th to 5th shows how truly Jason Kendall-weak the first basemen were this year. (This was the point of that Hardball Times article.) I haven’t gone over my research yet for 2009 conclusively, but I do believe 1st base will be a bit deeper next year. This will be something to watch. If your leaguemates overestimate the depth of the 1st basemen position, you could be sitting pretty if you reach for one early. We’ll go over this more during the winter. Preseason Rank #14, Preseason Predictions:  90/21/115/.290/3, Final Numbers:  91/29/115/.312/3

6. Miguel Cabrera - Looks like it was Cabrera that missed Olivo’s hugs more than the other way around. But, in the end, Miguel Cabrera gave about what he always gives minus some runs and average. He’ll probably be in my top ten for 2009. God, I can’t wait for the 2009 season. Is that weird? (Note: Cabrera gained 1st base eligibility during the season so he was only ranked for third basemen. The top twenty third basemen for 2008 will be here next week.) Preseason Predictions:  110/35/125/.315/4, Final Numbers:  84/37/127/.292/1

7. Ryan Howard - Frankly, I want Howard a lot higher than he’s ranked here. His major negative is his average, but you can outweigh that with some high average middle infielders and get exactly what you need from Howard, which is– a recipe for a deep-fried Twinkie? No. Power. Recognize! Preseason Rank #3, Preseason Predictions:  100/50/140/.275, Final Numbers:  105/48/146/.251

8. Justin Morneau - Flyball rate stayed, well, down and the power never really came around this season. His “known” makes him seem more valuable than his actual production at this point. Seems like he’s destined to fall somewhere between five and ten in 1st basemen rankings. Preseason Rank #8, Preseason Predictions:  90/35/110/.275, Final Numbers:  97/23/129/.300

9. Adrian Gonzalez - He’ll prolly be ranked about here for the next five years. Unless he gets traded to Coors. Holy heffin’ hey! Imagine A-Gonz in Coors? Hey, Holliday, don’t worry about that slacker Atkins. I’m here to hit 45 home runs. You’re welcome. Oh, and I’m a chubby chaser. Preseason Rank #9, Preseason Predictions:  90/33/105/.280, Final Numbers:  103/36/119/.279

10. Carlos Delgado - From radio, to the video, to Arsenio… Tell me!  Yo, what’s the best case scenario for Delgado? This yeario, Fife. Preseason Rank #17, Preseason Predictions:  70/28/95/.260, Final Numbers:  96/38/115/.271/1

11. Prince Fielder - You can’t eat salad on a stick! Man up. Preseason Rank #2, Preseason Predictions:  115/50/125/.285, Final Numbers:  86/34/102/.276/3

12. Jorge Cantu - In one of the best threads over in the Razzball forums, I named Cantu as one of my Fantasy MVPs. Poppycock, you say. Okay, but what the eff is poppycock and why are you saying it? When Hafner went down with I-ain’t-got-no-roids-itis and I wanted to commit Pronkicide, I grabbed Delgado or Cantu in just about all of my leagues. Mostly Cantu because he was more available. Anyway, he saved quite a few teams for me. I heart Cantu. Get over it. Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers:  92/29/95/.277/6

13. Derrek Lee - His power really evaporated. There were doubles at the end of ‘07 that seemed to be forecasting a power comeback in ‘08, but it just never happened. Also, I find it fascinating that his runs are so down from my predictions considering the Cubs success this year. Since this is probably only fascinating to me, I’ll move on. Preseason Rank #6, Preseason Predictions:  110/30/115/.290/5, Final Numbers:  93/20/90/.291/8

14. Joey Votto - I steamed up my colored contacts talking about Votto a few times this year — keep Votto? Fo shotto. (Note: I didn’t rank most rookies in the preseason top 20s, but I did make some preseason predictions for rookies.)  Preseason Unranked, Preseason Predictions:  .285/20/75, Final Numbers:  69/24/84/.297/7

15. Jose Lopez - He was unranked, but on April 4th, I told you to pick up Lopez, when I said, “If you have an erection for longer than four hours after you pick up Lopez, you should go see a doctor. But he’s hitting number two on the Mariners. So, well, there’s that. Honestly, he’s young and he’s started off hot.” And that’s me quoting me! I’ll have to look at his numbers closer going forward, but I might like him next year (for 2nd base, obviously). Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 80/17/89/.297/6

16. Conor Jackson - At 26, his power took a step backwards? Who are you — Felipe Lopez? The only adverb I can think of for Conor Jackson is yawstipatingly. I prefer all of the guys ranked below him on this list, except for Loney. Why, Grey? Why so down? Well, random italicized voice, Conor Jackson is only ranked this high because he gave you 10 steals. That’s no reason to have a 1st baseman. You could’ve had an off-waivers Juan Pierre for one good week and got half of that. Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers:  87/12/75/.300/10

17. Garrett Atkins - Watch your toes, everyone. Atkins is taking a step backwards. Home runs have gone from 29 to 25 to 21. In 2009, hello 17 home runs. (Note: Atkins gained 1st base eligibility during the season so he was only ranked for 3rd basemen. In fairness, if I had ranked him, I would’ve placed him higher than 17th.) Preseason Predictions:  85/34/115/.300, Final Numbers:  86/21/99/.286/1

18. Adam Dunn - I’m a huge fan of Dunn. Ain’t that apropos? His average took a hit, but his BABIP shows he was pretty unlucky this year. When a guy aims for .250 gets unlucky, it becomes a sub-.240 average. Zoinks! (Note: Dunn gained 1st base eligibility during the season so he was only ranked for outfielders. In fairness, if I had ranked him, I would’ve placed him higher than 18th.) Preseason Predictions:  100/45/110/.265/7, Final Numbers:  79/40/100/.236/2

19. James Loney - His preseason predictions and his final numbers speak a ton about the problems 1st basemen had this year. See I pegged him for 19th overall amongst 1st basemen and he came in at 19th, you would think his final numbers would be close to his preseason predictions, but his numbers were awful. We get it! 1st basemen numbers were down. School’s out, Alice Cooper. Preseason Rank #19, Preseason Predictions:  95/22/85/.315, Final Numbers:  66/13/90/.289/7

20. Carlos Pena - My instincts back in January were to lower him even further than the 11th place perch where I ranked him. As Malcolm Gladwell would say, “Blink, sucka!” Preseason Rank #11, Preseason Predictions:  85/22/80/.260, Final Numbers:  76/31/102/.247/1

Justin Morneau can hit 20 home runs in the 2nd half. Will he? Let me take out my voodoo chicken… Seriously, I’m not a fortune teller. What, you think I have some kind of Pagan Gods telling me what to do? (Bee tee dubya, I considered not capping Pagan. Because, honestly, how many Pagans really read this site? Is that our largest demographic? Probably.) So if I had Pagan Gods telling me what to do… Wait a second, isn’t a Pagan God just a tad contradictory? It’s like an Anarchist Organization. (Again, I contemplated not capping Anarchist Organization, but, well… Why chance it? These are the last people you want to bother. I could see it now, Grey Albright was murdered today because he didn’t cap Anarchist. Suspects include Anarchists and Grammar Nazis.) Morneau hit 24 home runs in the 1st half of last year, then got aboard the Goodship FizzlePop and hit only 7 Post-ASB. So I think you should stay away from him–No, I don’t. I like Morneau going into the All-Star Break this year and I’ll tell you why… There’s no good reason! Joking, of course there is. He’s 27, the magic year for hitters. He was great in ‘06. With the Twins back in contention, maybe that’s his thing. I like the idea of anyone that has shown they can hit 24 home runs in a half (and 23 in the 1st half of ‘06). That’s not something you find every day. It’s worth a gamble if you need pop. Anyway, here’s some more fantasy baseball players to Buy and Sell:

BUY

Garrett Atkins - Last year’s 2nd half, 12/58/.349. 2006’s 2nd half 18/62/.354. If you’re having a hard time reading between those numbers, don’t. Just read them.

Juan Rivera - Zubaz4Fans, who has the best forum picture, name and hotline to the Bobby Grich-ville Angels, reports that Juan Rivera will be starting over Gary Matthews Jr for the near future. I think this sticks. Or as Rex Hudler aka The Hud would say, “Juan Rivera drives in runs!” (BTW, what other site do you go to that you get reports from someone who named themselves after Zubaz Pants?)

Adam Jones - .417/12 RBIs in last 12 games. If he becomes a star, he may get himself a nickname like Taipei Slinklo. Stay tuned.

David Ross - No relation to Cody or Bob (God rest Bob’s soul and may he be sleeping on a happy cloud somewhere or tossing and turning if there are Pagans reading this). Has three home runs. David Ross can hit 12 in the 2nd half while batting .220. If you can hang with that, hit your fist against the jukebox and pickup Ross.

Chris Volstad - He sounds like a character in an Anne Rice book and he pitches like Derek Lowe, but that’s not completely terrible. Could have some matchup potential.

Josh Johnson - He pitches like every other fourth starter. Some Ks, low 4 ERA, high WHIP. Matchups potential. Eff why eye, if you have too many pitchers with matchup potential, you have no potential. Chew on that!

Dave Bush - For two years, Bush was an unshaven mess.  Had promise, but needed serious grooming.  Stunk so bad that many men thought about giving up.  But suddenly Bush cleaned up and looks presentable… First sign of a flare-up, get out.

Any Pitcher Facing The Mariners - Someone just beat the Mariners. And someone else. Vicente Padilla just called, he wants to pitch against them this Saturday disguised as Gil Meche. Hey, you’re not Meche! *Padilla slowly backs out of the Royals clubhouse*

Denard Span - Sometimes we should look away from real baseball and concentrate on what a guy could do in fantasy — most closers, for instance. But with the Twins, it’s hard to ignore their ability to put a consistently good ball club on the field, no matter the personnel changes. With this in mind, I think the Twins will put Span at the top of the lineup. Gomez has an OBP under .300. I know some of you who read are new to following baseball, while others are more experienced, so I’ll keep this short. Under a .300 OBP is not only bad for real baseball, it’s bad for fantasy baseball. Either way, Span has no power yet, but he’s slashing his way to being a mainstay in the Twinkies lineup with very quick hands.

SELL

Carlos Gomez - Most of what I have to say is in Span’s. I will add that on April 15th I watched the Twins and I said this, “In your box score it shows a K in the first inning. He struckout trying to bunt with two strikes. You’re thinking, “Well, that shows how committed he was to moving the guy over.” Dude, he was leading off the game! I really don’t think you want CarGo on your team right now. He doesn’t know what’s coming or going with pitch selection.” Someone in the comments on that April 15th post doubted me. As I said in the comments then, Gomez has unquestionable speed, you cannot steal first base.

Vernon Wells - Punt.

Mike Mussina - What’s a seven letter word for an over-the-hill Yankees pitcher that will disappoint fantasy owners in the 2nd half? I don’t know how many people are reading this that are carrying Mussina on a team, but here’s a harsh reality. Last year, 5.72 ERA in the 2nd half. This year, he’s a year older and a year crappier. 1st half wins or not.

Billy Wagner - He collapsed (almost literally) at the end of last year. He’s not who he thinks he is, if that makes sense. I couldn’t be anymore down on a closer that currently is in good favor with the majority of the fantasy baseball community. (BTW, our community consists of me writing emails to other sites, “Could you stop spamming me? I don’t want to add your widget to my site.”)

Justin Duchscherer - I kinda want him to be bad just so I don’t have to keep writing his last name. But, truthfully, there’s a long history of converted relievers doing well in the 1st half of their inaugural season of starting than fizzling in the 2nd half. Actually, I made that up. But it sounds right, right? I betcha one of those fancy, sabermetric fantasy baseball sites would have an answer for you. But then again, they will bore you to tears. Seriously, I wanna go in and punch up the writing on some of their posts. Well, the cross-platform splits of the XBHs shows a trend towards the fourth-quadrant Least Common Denominator. Hardy-har, there’s no way Ryan Howard hits 16 home runs in July! That reminds of something Ted Striker said that made the nun want to kill herself.

Much like Ron Howard’s movies, Ryan Howard’s swings are hit or miss. Lately, he’s been more A Beautiful Mind than The Grinch Who Stole Christmas. If he can just get the average up, he’ll reach the pinnacle of Night Shift. However, the chances of that are the same as Chase Utley marrying a mermaid. But Philly fans are smart enough to not look at just average.  They check slugging percentages before they start chucking batteries.  Who can forget the sabermetric death threats at Mitch Williams - a BABIP of .100 couldn’t compensate for your K/BB and HR/FB ratio! What is Ryan Howard averaging more than one a game since May 1? If you guessed cheese steaks and hot dogs, you may be right. But if you guessed RBIs, you’re definitely right. As far back as mid-April, I told you he will hit 40 home runs, go out and get him no matter what his early season looks like. I told you in May, when Howard was in the midst of a terrible slump, he would go into the All-Star Break with the most home runs. Since May 1st, he’s hit 46/22/71/.258 and 68 Pork Roll sandwiches. Yum! Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Vernon Wells - Hits the DL with a Grade 2 strain. Or as we called it in Grade 2, a boo-boo. He’ll be out 4-6 weeks; I’d drop him. Send your Get Well Soon cards to Toronto c/o Nobody Cares.

Richie Sexson - Was released by the Mariners. I was trying to come up with the perfect Sexson blurb, but all I kept thinking of was “Blechhhh!” So Sexson doesn’t get a blurb, he gets a burp. (BTW, I almost made him the lead, but I realized he’s been a non-story for two years. If he was the lead, his title would’ve been, “My Girl Doesn’t Like Sexson The Bumhole.”)

John Maine - He should’ve dusted the Giants like Mrs. Garrett did the Drummond household. (BTW, “Mrs.” my ass. Unless she was hitched in Hawaii to Paula Poundstone.) I can only assume the forearm cramps are bothering Maine still. Hopefully the All-Star Break gives them time to heal.

Erik Bedard - Hits the DL. But he was more or less on the DL anyway. Eff why eye, I wouldn’t be looking to grab Seattle Mariners for their 2nd half race to a 100 losses.

Moises Alou - Revealed he has a torn left hamstring. I guess peeing on his leg only made it worse. I think this might be the last we see of an Alou until his son, Shlomo, makes it to the majors in 2012.

Justin Upton - Oblique strain, but I think they’ve narrowed it down to somewhere in his abdominal.

Dustin McGowan - Tear in his rotator cuff. Punt.

Kevin Slowey - 6 ER in less than 4 IP. I said I liked him, I never said I loooooved him. For those Twins fetishists out there, I’d prefer Baker in a ball gag.

Justin Morneau - 5-for-5, someone asked in the comments if I liked him better than Atkins. I do. What else do you want me to say?! (I’ll talk more about this in Friday’s afternoon Buy/Sell. Or not! Wait and see! Or not! Actually, these “Or not”s could go on forever. Or not!)

Todd Jones - Blew a save yesterday. Guess how many that is. Go ahead. I’ll wait. *taps foot, picks nose and checks watch* Time’s up! Only his second blown save. Zumaya will see some chances soon, but I don’t know if Jones goes the way of Borowski just yet.

Aaron Harang - Placed on the 15-day DL. Strained forearm. Funny, cause he strained my patience. Supposedly he’ll be back right when his two week DL-stint is over.

Homer Bailey- Being called up to start on Saturday in place of Harang against Brewers. I’m sure the Brewers won’t mind either way.

Steven Pearce - And back down to the minors. When a team makes move as cunning as the Pirates, it’s baffling why they’ve had a losing record since 1992. It’s the Curse of Bream! Why don’t the Pirates invite Bream to Opening Day 2009 and surprise him with a clubbing? Hey, Sid, your fly’s down. Get em, boys! I’m sure Randall Simon’s available to do the clubbing.

Brandon Morrow - Kurt Suzuki took him deep to blow his save. When Suzuki circled the bases, from the way he was smiling, you would’ve thought he just won the World Series, except for the tumbleweeds blowing through the stands.

Dave Bush - 8 IP, 13 Ks, 0 ER, 3 H and one of the best starts of the year. His home/road splits are big enough to take a flier on him when he’s at home, right? I can’t make a ball gag joke and tell you to stay away from Bush in the same post, can I? Am I secure enough in my testes? As Lupe Fiasco might say, “Kick, Bush.”

Zach Greinke/Mark Buehrle/Jeremy Guthrie - Guys I have on quite a few teams. One team, all three — 21 1/3 IP, 19 Ks, 2 ER, .85 WHIP, Zero Wins. I think I’ve been Greinke’d!

Howie Kendrick - I went to a concert last night, so I missed some stuff, but when I came home and saw Kendrick hit two home runs, a few things that passed through my mind, 1. Why did the Rangers bring the outfield in in the 2nd and 5th innings? 2. Did they let Kendrick bat from 2nd base? 3. Why was Corey Feldman pitching for the Rangers? 4. Could I hit a home run in Arlington?  5. Have the Rangers considered a humidor? 6. I went to high school with a kid by the name of Howie. He has more Myspace friends than me. 7. Did they let Kendrick use an aluminum bat? 8. Howie Kendrick is like a poor man’s Polanco. So if Keppinger is Blanco Polanco, what does that make Kendrick? 9. Could ten things actually pass through my mind about Kendrick hitting 2 HRs? 10. Yup.

(NOTE FROM GREY: Last week I sent out feelers to the top baseball team blogs to see if they would be generous enough to write a quick preview for their favorite team. So over the course of the next two weeks, mixed in with your daily fantasy info, you will get some of the most astute, in-depth coverage of teams around the major leagues for the upcoming 2008 season from the people that know these teams best. Each post will include a link to their site, please take time to visit these bloggers’ sites, because these posts are truly the tip of the iceberg for their team knowledge. Now enjoy the 2008 Minnesota Twins preview.)

Starting Pitching

For the first time in a half decade, the Twins will not have ace Johan Santana to count on. He will be missed, but the Twins and their fans have got to move on. With the losses of Carlos Silva and Matt Garza, it is fair to say that there are question marks all over the Twins starting staff. Fortunately, if nothing else, the Twins have a lot of young pitchers with abundant talent and little experience.

The Twins decided to start the season with ace-to-be Francisco Liriano making a few starts in the minor leagues while he continues to rehab from Tommy John surgery. His long-term value to the Twins makes this a no brainer, but expect him up soon. The Twins decided to sign the very hittable Livan Hernandez to eat up innings to save the bullpen some since the rest of the rotation is young. Scott Baker and Boof Bonser are the two pitchers with the most experience. Each has made just 48 career starts, but they will be counted on heavily. Kevin Slowey has an historical 2007 at AAA Rochester, and in September, he replaced Bonser in the rotation. His control  and moxie make him a future star, much in the mold of Greg Maddux. OK, how about Brad Radke? The fifth starter job was won by Nick Blackburn this spring. He will be given a few starts until Liriano is ready, but he has the stuff to stick around if he pitches well. If anything happens, it is important to note that the Twins have plenty of young pitchers who are, or soon will be, ready to contribute at the big league level. Philip Humber, Glen Perkins, Brian Duensing, Anthony Swarzak lead that list.

The Bullpen

The Twins have typically outperformed their Pythagorean win projection, and we wonder why? Well, it is probably because of the strength of their bullpen. They may not have had the offense to have many blowout wins, but when the team is in a close game, the dominance of the Twins bullpen always gives them a chance.

The Twins decided to sign Joe Nathan and keep him around for the next four years. He has been as good as any closer in baseball since the Twins promoted him to the position to start the 2004 season. Pat Neshek and Matt Guerrier were terrific in their set up role last year. This year, the Twins hope for a healthy Jesse Crain, who missed much of the 2007 season after shoulder surgery, as he was excellent to start his career. Juan Rincon looks to bounce back, and Dennys Reyes would love to prove that 2006 was no fluke.

The Twins bullpen will again be a very important part of their success in 2008

Position Players

Joe Mauer and Mike Redmond combine to be a very productive catching duo. Mauer is fully healthy and had a strong spring. If he can stay in the lineup, he is as good as it gets. Justin Morneau was the AL MVP in 2006 and had a strong first half in 2007. What he needs to do is put together a full season. His recently signed six year, $80 million deal is hopefully motivation to do just that. Michael Cuddyer signed a three year deal worth at least $25 million on the same day, and he will again patrol right field where he led the league in assists last year. The team acquired Delmon Young in an offseason trade and he will be set in left field this season. Jason Kubel put together a great second half in 2007 and should build on that as the team’s primary DH. (Craig Monroe will likely see some time as the DH and occasional OF as well) Those are the Twins two through six hitters, and should remain so over the next three or four years. Those five hitters should be very productive.

Adam Everett takes over shortstop duties after Jason Bartlett was traded in the Garza/Young deal. This is a big step down for the Twins offensively, but probably a small step forward defensively as Everett is as good as it gets. Carlos Gomez and Denard Span battled all spring for the starting CF job, and in the end, the Twins went with the very talented Carlos Gomez. He will be the Twins leadoff man as well, providing incredible speed to the top of the order, allowing those two through six hitters plenty of RBI opportunities. Mike Lamb, Everett’s teammate with the Astros the last several seasons, will take over at 3B for the Twins. Last year, Nick Punto put up historically horrible numbers for a player at the hot corner. Lamb’s defense may not be great, but the guy can take good at bats and hit gaps, so he will help the lineup as well. Finally, Brendan Harris, also acquired in the Twins/Rays deal will start the season as the Twins starting 2B. He put up very strong numbers last year as the Rays starting SS, and will move to the other side of the diamond for this season. Expect Punto to get some playing time here as well as Twins rookie Matt Tolbert.

Fantasy Must Haves

Many people are down on this year’s Twins team, but there is a lot of talent. My assumption is that fantasy baseball participants know this. Here are some guys to consider drafting:

Joe Mauer - There are only four, maybe five, catchers that you really want on your team. Joe Mauer is one of them. Even in a “down” season for Mauer, he provides good all around numbers. If healthy, he should reclaim the top spot among catchers.

Justin Morneau - Normally 1B has been one of the strongest positions in a fantasy draft, but this year, that isn’t as much the case. However, Morneau is still one of the guys that you will be happy to have on your team.

Joe Nathan - Over his four seasons as the Twins closer, he has averaged just over 40 saves per season. He has also had an ERA of 1.94 combined over that time.

Delmon Young - His lack of walks makes him a mid-round pick in rotisserie leagues where on-base percentage matters, but I think he could be a monster in points leagues. At just 22 years old, his power and average should continue to rise.

Francisco Liriano - With risk, there can be reward. Sure, in his first year back from Tommy John surgery, there is risk in drafting Liriano. However, let’s not forget that during his 2006 run (12-3, 2.16 ERA, 144 Ks in 121 innings), he was better than Johan Santana. That is how special he could be again.

Sleepers

Jason Kubel - his second half gives Twins fans hope that he has returned to full health and can be the hitter we projected him to be when he first came up to the Twins in 2004.

Michael Cuddyer - Don’t forget that in 2006, he had over 100 runs and 100 RBI. He is forgotten in the lineup that includes so many mashers.

Pat Neshek - Arguably the top set up man in the game, Neshek does well in strikeouts, WHIP and ERA. If anything happened to Joe Nathan, Neshek would be the guy to step in.

Summary

The American League Central is very tough. The Tigers improved themselves and we forget that Cleveland is back with much of the same team that was one win from the World Series. The White Sox and even the Royals will both be very competitive. But don’t sleep on this Twins team. As you can see, there is a lot of talent. Yes, a lot of things have to happen right for this team, but this is the beauty of baseball and its 162 game season. You just never know.

Seth

Seth Stohs runs  www.SethSpeaks.net

Because things are always changing in fantasy baseball, it’s impossible to do a definitive list of the top hundred overall for 2008 or for any year for that matter. Tomorrow, Pujols could announce he’s having his surgery to repair his injured arm and be gone for the season or he could announce that he’s having his arm replaced with an aluminum bat and he moves to number one overall. Nevertheless, here’s my 2008 fantasy baseball top 100 as of right now. (BTW, download Rudy Gamble’s projections for 2008 here.)

1. Alex Rodriguez – Dur. Projections: 120/42/130/15/.305
2. Jose Reyes – Find thirty homers later in the draft. You ain’t finding 70 steals. Projections: 130/14/65/.295/70
3. Matt Holliday – Great hitter + Coors = Fantasy Stud. Projections: 110/40/125/.310/10
4. David Wright – The Mets have a penchant to run. Don’t see Wright slowing down just yet. Projections: 115/34/120/.310/20
5. Hanley Ramirez – I’ve already explained my hesitation for Hanley. Projections: 110/17/85/.295/45
6. Chase Utley – Could he give the Phillies the MVP trifecta this year? I give him 50/50 odds. Projections: 120/32/115/.325/12
7. Johan Santana – I’m not drafting him here, but that’s already been covered. Projections: 21-5/240/2.50/.95
8. Jake Peavy — Weak hitting division, extreme pitching park, ranked #1 as last year’s fantasy player. I’m not drafting him either. (BTW, why are people ranking Peavy so much lower than Santana on their draft cheatsheets? Does everyone really think Santana will win 25 games? He’ll be great, but c’mon. Don’t believe the hype.) Projections: 20-5/230/2.75/1.05
9. Miguel Cabrera – Everything but steals. Projections: 110/37/125/.325/4
10. Prince Fielder – Him and Howard are the only ones with good odds to hit 50. Projections: 115/50/125/.285
11. Ryan Howard – See Fielder, Prince. Projections: 100/50/140/.275
12. Carl Crawford – He’s still young and he can still hit 30 home runs. Projections: 105/25/85/.305/50
13. Grady Sizemore – This is probably my preseason AL MVP. But we’ll get to that. Projections: 120/35/85/.290/30
14. Alfonso Soriano – He’s a Latin 32, but doesn’t seem to be slowing down or losing power. He might have the best preseason shot at 40/40. Projections: 115/35/75/.280/20
15. Jimmy Rollins – He’s not hitting 30 homers again. Projections: 130/22/70/.290/35
16. David Ortiz – Eligibility concerns have me passing on him, but I could understand this pick. Projections: 115/40/120/.310
17. Alexis Rios – This is who I want in every league. I have his projections at 120/32/110/.300/25. Next year he’s a first rounder. Chew on that.
18. Carlos Lee – He’s good every year and he plays. That’s reliability. Projections: 90/35/120/.295/7
19. Vladimir Guerrero – Maybe he can get an aluminum leg from Pujols’s doctor. Projections: 105/32/125/.315/3
20. Mark Teixiera – You can count on certain stats, but that includes sub-par first halfs. Projections: 105/35/115/.300
21. Nick Markakis – I will have him on every team I can. Projections: 100/27/115/.300/20 with the skill set to go way above and beyond these numbers.
22. Ryan Braun – I already told you why not to buy into the hype. Projections: 100/27/105/.280/12
23. B.J. Upton – I don’t see a huge step forward from last year. But 30/30 would still be sweet. Could easily be a 1st round guy next year. Projections: 100/30/85/.280/27
24. Albert Pujols – A high-grade tear in his elbow? A team with nothing to play for. He might not see July. Projections: 55/22/70/.330/2 and he hangs them up by July 4th.
25. Ichiro Suzuki – He’ll be batting .330 in September and I’ll still be glad I didn’t draft him. You don’t have to turn your average to eleven. Projections: 110/10/65/.330/45
26. Carlos Beltran – Is it me or is this round filled with landmines? Projections: 100/27/110/.270/18
27. Lance Berkman – A lock for 90/35/110/.280.
28. C.C. Sabathia – It’s let’s start a pitching run. Projections: 20-9/210/3.40/1.15
29. Brandon Webb – Easily could be in the top ten at the end of the year. Projections: 19-7/190/3.10/1.20
30. Erik Bedard – I give you permission to now draft a starter, if you really must. Projections: 16-9/230/3.30/1.10
31. Aramis Ramirez – Last year’s numbers aren’t indicative of ’08. Projections: 95/37/120/.305
32. Troy Tulowitzki – The Polish are hard workers. I expect Tulo to make his people proud. Projections: 115/25/80/.280/10
33. Adam Dunn – I love guys that are guaranteed 40 homers. They give you runs, RBIs and home runs. BTW, Dunn’s only 28. Projections: 100/45/110/.265/7
34. Travis Hafner – I’m probably the only ‘pert ranking Pronk this high, but I think this is the year he puts everything together. He’d be higher if he had some eligibility somewhere. Projections: 100/40/110/.300
35. Jonathan Papelbon – This is where you should draft him if you want him. I don’t. But I do think he’ll be spectacular. Projections: 5-0/90/1.10/.75/45 saves
36. Robinson Cano – My third 2nd basemen off the board. Fark you, Phillips. Projections: 100/25/100/.295/3
37. Derrek Lee – As Rudy Gamble is prone to say, fifteen steals easily turns into five when your game isn’t stealing bases. Projections: 110/30/115/.290/5
38. Garrett Atkins – Third base sure be deep. Projections: 85/34/115/.300
39. Curtis Granderson – Too rich for my blood. I’m out of the Granderson pot. Projections: 115/27/85/.280/25
40. Victor Martinez – I’m taking Cralos Ruiz in the 18th round, not V-Mart in the third or fourth. Projections: 75/25/115/.300
41. Derek Jeter – Girls draft Jeter. Don’t be a girl. Projections: 110/15/70/.315/15
42. Miguel Tejada – He tore up the winter leagues and he’s pissed off because he’s pissing clean. Projections: 90/25/100/.290/3
43. Cole Hamels – The first pitcher I could conceivably draft. Here’s what I said in January, “The future has arrived for the Phillies ace. If he stays away from injury, he battles Peavy for the Cy Young. Not sure how early I’m going to draft him, but he’ll be on one of my ’08 teams.” You see that wisdom there. But then Santana came to the NL. So, sue me, Hamels now comes in third in the Cy Young voting. Projections: 20-7/210/3.20/1.10
44. Aaron Harang – The second pitcher I could conceivably draft. Projections: 17-10/220/3.75/1.15
45. Joe Nathan – If Papelbon’s selection didn’t start a closer run, I suppose here’s a good place to look. I won’t be picking a closer until the second tier. Projections: 6-1/80/1.90/1.00/40 saves
46. J.J. Putz – Very solid number one closer for any team, except for one of mine. Projections: 4-2/80/2.00/.90/40 saves
47. Brandon Phillips – I thought about dropping him into the fifties to prove how much I want you to avoid him. Projections: 80/19/75/.240/25 and is benched in July because his slump is “all in his head.”
48. Brian Roberts – Okay, here’s the problem. One year twenty homers, one year 4. Career average of 29 steals, last year 50. In fantasy baseball, inconsistency breeds contempt. Projections: 105/10/55/.290/30
49. Alex Gordon – I love Gordon this year. Projections: 80/25/90/.280/20
50. Bobby Abreu – Everyone loves Granderson. How about you draft someone that is guaranteeing you good numbers? Projections: 120/15/110/.310/20
51. Torii Hunter – Double I is about as consistent as a 25/20 man can get. Projections: 85/25/100/.275/20
52. Corey Hart – Here’s what I said in January, “He ran like a demonfish in the first half (mostly against righties) and kept consistent power and average throughout. As much as I feel weird saying it, I think Mr. Hart is here to stay. His OBP against righties is kinda icky, but you know who else is like that, Double I. That’s right, Corey Hart is the white man Torii Hunter.” So it’s only fitting they’re next to each other in the rankings. Projections: 95/22/75/.280/25
53. Justin Morneau – Don’t think he walks enough to ever come close to another MVP. Projections: 90/32/105/.275
54. Dan Haren – He’s a bit prone to the home run ball and the move to a more hitter’s friendly park doesn’t help, but all this is negated by weaker offenses in the NL. Draft with confidence. Projections: 17-9/210/3.60/1.20
55. Manny Ramirez – I’m not high on Manny, but come on, he’s still kind of a hitting savant. Projections: 85/32/105/.315
56. Ian Kinsler – I kinda wanna have Kinsler’s babies. Projections: 110/25/70/.270/25
57. Eric Byrnes – Take Shane Victorino thirty spots later. You’re welcome. Projections: 90/20/75/.270/20
58. Chone Figgins – I already explained I don’t draft steals after Reyes. Projections: 105/5/60/.290/45
59. Magglio Ordonez – Here’s what I wrote in January, “Saw something the other day about Mags. It said he won his 1st batting title in ’07. Thought it was weird it said “1st” as if he’s going to win a second.” Projections: 100/30/110/.300
60. Russell Martin – I had to list another catcher eventually, though you should be warned. He’s not going to steal 20 bases this year. Can’t you just draft Carlos Ruiz fifteen rounds later and grab Michael Bourn to get you some steals? Geez, and I thought I was difficult. Projections: 85/20/90/.290/15
61. Francisco Rodriguez – I won’t draft a closer this high, but I will say if I were, I would not be drafting K-Rod. He’s the only top tier closer that worries me. Projections: 6-2/90/3.00/1.25/45 saves
62. Mariano Rivera – I’d rather you started a website razzballsucks.com then draft Rivera, but you do what you do. Projections: 5-2/70/2.75/1.10/40 saves
63. Adrian Gonzalez – I can’t fathom anyone hitting 40 homers in Petco, but he might get to 35. Projections: 90/33/105/.280
64. Paul Konerko – My man Paulie is dropping off draftsheets. Did he screw someone’s Moms and I didn’t hear about it? Projections: 90/35/110/.275
65. Hunter Pence – You’re drunk if you think I’m drafting him, but, ya know, he’s gotta fit in somewhere. Projections: 95/22/75/.290/17
66. Chipper Jones – Yes, he’ll only play in 120 games, but you can make moves in your league to fill in people, right? Projections: 85/25/85/.315/5
67. John Lackey – It’s not that I don’t like him because I think he’s probably going to be my preseason AL Cy Young pick, but I just don’t like AL starters. Projections: 20-5/180/3.00/1.20
68. Justin Verlander – Might be the only American League starter I’ll consider drafting. Projections: 19-7/200/3.75/1.20
69. Rafael Furcal – I would actually consider taking Raffy because his last year made him a bit of a bargain this year. Projections: 110/15/65/.285/35
70. Gary Sheffield – You need some ‘tude on your team. Projections: 90/25/80/15/.285
71. Carlos Pena – I’m predicting he’ll make fantasy owners miserable this year. Projections: 85/22/80/.260 and he falls into a platoon.
72. Josh Beckett – I was down on this schmohawk before the tender back. Now? Not with a ten foot pole. Projections: 18-9/190/3.90/1.20
73. Edwin Encarncion – I’m wild about Edwin even if he’s a total jerkoff. Projections: 75/25/85/.275/15
74. Delmon Young – I stay away from 2nd year players when possible. Delmon’s one guy I’m considering. Projections: 70/20/100/.285/15
75. John Smoltz – He seems like he’s almost as nice a guy as Vernon Wells, right? (BTW, if you need me to tell you about Smoltz, you’ve been in an Afghani cave for too long.) Projections: 16-7/160/3.75/1.22
76. Carlos Guillen – I think he might be the biggest overpriced piece of garbage since Morneau last year. Projections: 95/15/75/.300/8
77. Ryan Zimmerman – And here’s where I pass. Wrist surgery and people are drafting him like it means nothing. Projections: 90/18/90/.275/5
78. Hideki Matsui – Godzilla loves porn and I don’t mind him. So there’s that. Projections: 105/25/100/.295
79. Roy Oswalt – Ks are trending the wrong way, but he’s still very reliable. Take a middle reliever to offset the Ks. Projections: 15-7/150/3.60/1.22
80. Todd Helton – He’s getting to the point where he’s undervalued. Let’s be realistic for a second. He’s not getting you 40 homers anymore, but what he does give you is not dreadful. Projections: 90/15/90/.315
81. Chris “No B” Young – A tall pitcher with back issues concerns me, but I’d take his 22 starts over some guys 32. Projections: 15-5/160/3.00/1.10 and he only pitches in a 150 innings.
82. Carlos Zambrano – In my opinion, any guy that does what he did to Barrett you have to like. Projections: 18-7/210/3.60/1.30
83. John Maine – I love Maine this year. And not just for their lobster – oofa! I will have Maine on at least one team. You should too. Projections: 18-9/210/3.60/1.20
84. Rickie Weeks – This question still lingers, if Clint Barmes, Rocco Baldelli and Rickie Weeks board your cross-country flight, do you get off? Projections: 85/15/50/.260/22
85. Jeff Kent – At some point he’s going to get old, I think it’s coming soon. Act accordingly. Projections: 80/22/90/.300
86. Mike Lowell – His luck with runners on last year was a collision of good fortune and stoopid good fortune. Projections: 75/20/105/.280/3
87. Shane Victorino – I love Victorino. If I were a 300 lb. Hawaiian woman, Victorino and I would be living off the coast of Oahu. Projections: 115/15/60/.280/40
88. Vernon Wells – O, Vernon. Don’t suck this year. Projections: 90/30/90/.280/7
89. Jeff Francoeur – Do you think if Frenchy were popular in 2001 he would have went by Freedom? Projections: 85/25/110/.280/5
90. Chris B. Young – Krispie will frustrate for extended periods of time with swings and misses. Projections: 90/25/70/.245/32
91. Jhonny Peralta – The only thing I don’t like about Peralta this year is the spelling of his first name. He’s a big buh-Buy. Projections: 85/32/105/.270/3
92. Brian McCann – He’s the last catcher of the top one hundred (eff Mauer) so this will be the last time I tell you to draft Carlos Ruiz in the 18th round. Projections: 75/25/105/.285
93. Andruw Jones – Ok, I’m aware he reported to camp looking like Umaga. But he can’t be over the hill yet, can he? Projections: 85/32/110/.250
94. Mike Jacobs – The Marlins will give the Nats a run for most unwatchable team, though I do like Jacobs’s upside. Projections: 70/30/95/.285
95. Jim Thome – You can set your watch to his stats. Projections: 70/30/90/.265
96. Ryan Garko – Garko’s getting overlooked in the drafts I’ve seen. Watch him jump up to the fourth round next year. Projections: 75/27/90/.285
97. Josh Hamilton – Hamilton gets high on life! Projections: 70/27/80/.300/5
98. Brad Hawpe – Here’s what I said in January, “Hawpe will be sensational this year and not hit lefties. He sported a .418 OBP last year against righties. Grab Spilborghs for next to nothing and platoon them yourself, cause Spilborghs had a .426 OBP against lefties. Hawpe/Spilborghs combo projections: 105/35/110/.300/5.” I stand by that.
99. Nick Swisher – He’s pretty. Projections: 95/30/100/.275
100. James Shields – His year end numbers will blow away Kazmir’s. Projections: 14-6/185/3.75/1.10
101. Rich Hill – No top hundred list is complete without a 101st pick. Projections: 18-7/200/3.60/1.15
102. Kelly Johnson – Ok, last one, but only because I hate the way people are passing by Kelly Johnson. Look at these projections: 85/17/65/.275/12, there’s a fifty percent chance those will be better than Rickie Weeks. (BTW, as for the Weeks question above, I get off the plane. You?)