Fantasy Baseball Advice

Top 40 Starters, 2011 Fantasy Baseball

October 31, 2011 By: Grey Category: 2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings 52 Comments →

So, how’s everyone holding up without baseball every day?  I don’t know what to do with myself!  Yesterday, I wandered into a Starbucks and told the coffeerista about Mike Stanton for 2012.  We’ve gone over the final 2011 fantasy baseball rankings for hitters and the top 20 starters.  There’s only one of these godforsaken recap posts left before we’re into 2012 fantasy shizz.  You’re welcome.  Anyway, here’s the top 40 starters for 2011 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:

21. Madison Bumgarner – Trying to find some info that hasn’t been reported before, I decided to look at some of Bumgarner’s splits vs. his NL West opponents.  I figured he would’ve dominated them and I was going to conclude Giants pitchers are can’t misses because of their most-faced opponents.  Against the Padres (4.24 ERA in 23 1/3 IP), Dodgers (4.11 in 30 2/3 IP!) and Arizona (4.26 in 12 2/3 IP) — hey, metaphorical window, how about you open so I can throw a theory out?  Preseason Rank #46, 2011 Projections: 12-7/3.60/1.25/140, Final Numbers:  13-13/3.21/1.21/191

22. Daniel Hudson – I had so much love for Hudson in the preseason that he kinda needed to compete for the Cy Young to please me.  Instead, he produced respectable numbers but disappointed in the one category that gives me the goose pimples — Ks.  His K-rate dropped from 7.93 to 6.85.  Mr. Obvious, “Yeah, that’s not good.”  Preseason Rank #34, 2011 Projections: 12-9/3.50/1.18/190, Final Numbers:  16-12/3.49/1.20/169

23. Hiroki Kuroda – Definitely the Rodney Dangerfield of major league starters.  Kuroda could’ve been coming off 5 solid starts and I’d have people asking me in the comments if they should hold him.   Hold him, squeeze him, love him.  On an unrelated note, what if Chazz Palminteri became Chastity Palminteri?  Or Chazz Face-Palminteri?  Preseason Rank #39, 2011 Projections: 12-9/3.45/1.18/140, Final Numbers:  13-16/3.07/1.21/161

24. Johnny Cueto – I played a broken record during the season about how Cueto wasn’t a sub-2.50 ERA pitcher.  Not going to play that tune again.  Everyone who owned him got lucky.  Let’s leave it at that.  Preseason Rank #42, 2011 Projections: 12-8/3.65/1.26/160, Final Numbers:  9-5/2.31/1.09/104

25. Jeremy Hellickson – Member what I said about Cueto?  No?  I just said it Mr. Short-Term Memory.  He got lucky.  Yeah, Hellickson did too.  In a huge way.  2.95 ERA vs. 4.72 xFIP and a 5.57 K-rate.  Can anyone say Blechellickson?  Sure, you can.  It’s Hellickson with a Blec.  Preseason Rank #64, 2011 Projections:  9-5/3.60/1.10/140, Final Numbers:  13-10/2.95/1.15/117

26. Ryan Vogelsong – As will be a recurring theme that won’t emerge until January of 2012, just about all of the pitchers that ended up in this top 40 that were unranked, I won’t like next year.  Except Pineda.  Vogelsong left a bunch of men on base, walked hitters, didn’t strike out guys… He looked like a fantasy number two but he’s really a four to five.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  13-7/2.71/1.25/139

27. Shaun Marcum – Tale of two pitchers with Marcum and Greinke.  I liked both of them in the preseason and they both produced, but I still felt disappointed by their end of the year numbers.  Hmm, that’s not really a tale.  With Marcum, I gave some lofty expectations, telling you he was going to start the All-Star Game.  Yeah, that turned out as bonkers as it sounded even at the time.  I thought Marcum could step up his K-rate in the NL, instead it took a small step backwards and we were actually lucky to get the ERA we did get.  It worked out; it could’ve easily backfired.  Preseason Rank #33, 2011 Projections: 15-8/3.35/1.15/185, Final Numbers:  13-7/3.54/1.16/158

28. Zack Greinke – He had a 10.54 K/9 and a 2.56 xFIP.  Who are you, Ricky Nolasco?  How dare you try to confuse Murray Chass!   Or Murray Chass Bono.  Preseason Rank #17, 2011 Projections: 15-9/3.50/1.18/200, Final Numbers:  16-6/3.83/1.20/201

29. Jon Lester – One of the biggest disappointments, but at least he wasn’t Liriano.  And you were wondering how long it would be until I mentioned Liriano.  Hey, at least I didn’t mention Morneau.  Oh, wait.  Preseason Rank #7, 2011 Projections: 17-9/3.30/1.18/220, Final Numbers: 15-9/3.47/1.26/182

30. Ervin Santana – One of my misses in the preseason.  I was done with him going into 2011 because of his yawnstipating 2010 and 2009.  Now not to turn every square peg into a round one, I wasn’t totally wrong on Ervin.  He outperformed his xFIP (3.93) by a decent amount.  He did produce more ground balls and upped his K-rate ever so slightly.  All in all or some other idiomatic phrase, Ervin gave us some magic.   Preseason Rank #51, 2011 Projections: 13-10/4.30/1.32/150, Final Numbers:  11-12/3.38/1.22/178

31. Gio Gonzalez – In my tier of guys I kinda love for a third starter, there was Marcum, Daniel Hudson, Gio Gonzalez and Volquez.  To one-up Meatloaf, 3 out of 4 ain’t bad.  Seriously, everyone talks about how pitchers aren’t predictable, but I do a pretty good job of picking them out.  BTW, this kinda made me laugh, in the preseason I said, “(Gio) went 13 innings over the 30 inning Verducci threshold last year, but Verducci’s a crackpot who told you to avoid F-Her, Latos and Josh Johnson in 2010.”  Ha, Verducci.  What a jizzie-joke.  I wonder if he puts all pitchers under 25 years old on a dart board, or if he puts a picture of the pitcher on the dart and sees if he can hit the board.  Preseason Rank #35, 2011 Projections: 12-8/3.60/1.28/195, Final Numbers:  16-12/3.12/1.32/197

32. Javier Vazquez – Then in my tier of guys I kinda l0ve as my fourth starter were Vazquez, Garza, Zimmermann, Hellickson and James McDonald.  Quite a few hits in there too.  Yeah, I did like Vazquez last preseason only to have Rudy badger me to drop him in our 12-team NL-Only league.  A league where middle relievers were owned, forget about finding a starter with a rotation job.  Fongool my life.  Preseason Rank #61, 2011 Projections: 12-10/3.75/1.25/170, Final Numbers:  13-11/3.69/1.18/162

33. Mat Latos – On the Verducci list this year was Latos, Bumgarner, Price, Beachy and Gio Gonzalez.  One of my favorite parts of the offseason is hearing how he justifies the previous year’s misses.  Preseason Rank #19, 2011 Projections: 9-7/3.50/1.10/160, Final Numbers:  9-14/3.47/1.18/185

34. Kyle Lohse – I would’ve had a hard time picking up Lohse in September even after he had 5 solid months.  That’s how much I trust him.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  14-8/3.39/1.17/111

35. Matt Garza – He was in my early season difference between ERA and xFIP articles that told you he was going to be much better, then he went ahead and made me look like a genius.  Though I still can’t spell genius without a spellchecker.  Preseason Rank #62, 2011 Projections: 12-8/3.75/1.27/165, Final Numbers:  10-10/3.32/1.26/197

36. Alexi Ogando – God, his Ks were terrible.  I know, I know, it’s only one category.  But they’re not.  They’re a category that every other category can hinge on.  Strike guys out and they don’t get on base and it lowers your ERA and WHIP and gives you a chance for Wins.  Sure, there’s other ways pitchers can get hitters out, but they’re not as straightforward.  I like straightforward!  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  13-8/3.51/1.14/126

37. Michael Pineda – Now he struck people out.  I already went over my Michael Pineda 2012 fantasy.  In that article, there’s German women dancing in lederhosen.  BTW, shouldn’t more than one German be Germen?  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  9-10/3.74/1.10/173

38. Justin Masterson – I Cameron Maybin’d Masterson this year.  Was all about him in 2010, but then when I should’ve actually been in on him I Mr. Bungled it.  Though I did recover quickly and ended up with him on some teams because I grabbed him off waivers in April-ish.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  12-10/158/3.21/1.28

39. Cory Luebke – And with a bullet… The first hodgepadre!  Earlier in this post (I think it was this post… Jesus Montero, what am I going on like 1300 words?  Offseason is supposed to be easier for me, crimey a river, Timberlake), I said there’s no unranked pitchers that I will like again next year except Pineda.  Luebke will probably be liked too, depending on January Grey’s mood ring color.  January Grey, “I hocked my mood ring for blow.”  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  6-10/3.29/1.07/154

40. Josh Collmenter – Yeah, Collmenter wasn’t that good.  An under 6 K-rate?  As the French say, “Parlez vous crap.”  (The French don’t say that.)  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  10-10/3.38/1.07/100

Ding Dong Travyon Calling

August 05, 2011 By: Grey Category: Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes 65 Comments →

The M’s are calling up Trayvon Robinson today.  Should be fun for the Dodgers to get a look at their first mistake under Selig.  Trayvon’s a high risk/high reward call up which sounds a lot better than Seattle’s low risk/low reward offense.  It’s like taking a chance on the next Kurt Cobain or Jimi Hendrix instead of settling on Candlebox.  In Triple-A, Trayvon had 26 homers in 416 PAs, which is plate appearances, not how many production assistants Michael Bay had on his last movie.  He looks a bit like a Bowden Fluffer.  Speed and power and crazy Ks and “athleticism” whatever the eff that means.  In AL-Only leagues, you have to jump on him.  In some mixed leagues, I like the flyer, as well.  You’re looking at a guy that could give you 7-10 steals and some pop in the final two months.  (BTW, for all you Real World heads out there, I tried really hard to work an allusion to Shauvon into the title saying Trayvon was the M’s best implant, but I failed you.  I will now punish myself by watching back-to-back episodes of My Strange Addiction.)  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Brett Lawrie – I just went over my Lawrie fantasy.  I wrote it while impersonating a police officer.  BTW, that post is from last week, so if you didn’t get Lawrie in your league, don’t blame me.  I gave you ample warning.   Ample Warning would also be a great album title.

Travis Snider – Sent down to AAA again.  He had a nice stretch in the first half of July but had cooled off since then.  He’s a damn tease.  If Riccardi was in charge, he’d give him enough time to shine, overpay him, and then trade him to the White Sox or Angels.

Jon Rauch – 1 1/3 IP, 3 ER.  Still has an ERA better than Frank Francisco.  4.44 to 4.54.  Rauch and Francisco are the new blech.  Wouldn’t be surprised to see Snider pluck his wispy, seventeen-strand mustache and try to sneak back onto the club as the closer.

Desmond Jennings – 3-for-6 with his 3rd home run.  After the game, he cured cancer, then Roger Ebert gave him a thumbs up.

Evan Longoria – He hit his 16th homer… Yay!  He went 1-for-6… Nay!

Shin-Soo Choo – Took batting practice and says he should be able to return in the next two weeks.  Considering how he was hitting before the injury, I’m not sure if that’s good news or bad.

Garrett Jones – 2-for-5 after hitting 2 homers two days ago.  I’d say he’s going to be in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell, but that’s in the can and I only make addendums for guys by the name of Desmond Jennings.

Carlos Pena – On Wednesday he went 2-for-2, yesterday he hit a home run.  Here comes another run from Pena of five homers in seven days or my name isn’t Grey Stallion Albright.  You can abbreviate Stallion as St. if you wish.

Geovany Soto – 1-for-4 and his 2nd homer in three days.  You realize you’ve made me scared to say anything nice about catchers.  I’m like a battered shrimp.  The small people, not the crustacean.

Blake DeWitt – 1-for-4 with his 3rd homer.  Still holding the title “Choice DeWitt” in my back pocket for when this guy actually hits well.

Rodrigo Lopez – 4 IP, 6 ER.  He’s such a peg boy.

Ivan Nova – 7 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 10 Ks.  He will be in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell.  Just keep hitting refresh and it will magically appear.

Eric Chavez – 2-for-4 and played over Eduardo Nunez.  I hope this schmohawk doesn’t take time away from Nunez and his thievery corporation.

Justin Masterson – 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 baserunners, 9 Ks vs. the Sawx.  You have nuggets the size of Mr. Met’s head if you started Masterson in Fenway.

Carlos Santana – 3-for-4, 3 RBIs and his 16th homer.  Sucks if you own him this year and you’re getting his .232 average, but I hope it stays low so he comes at a bit of a discount in 2012.  Wouldn’t surprise me to see him hit .280 next year with 20+ homers as he enters his prime years.  Hopefully he just avoids duets with Rob Thomas.

Johan Santana – Diagnosed with shoulder fatigue.  Shoot it up with some Red Bull!  Actually, they should just shut him down.  No idea what the Mets are trying to prove by having him pitch for a few weeks in September.

Brandon Belt – Was sent down.  This was a great season to stunt a prospect’s progress.  Up, down, up, down, up, down…It’s enough to discombobulate Sandy Duncan’s eye.

Omar Infante – Headed to the DL with a fractured middle finger.  I’m sure anyone who just went through the trouble of adding him to their fantasy team has a middle finger for him.

Francisco Liriano – 5 IP, 7 ER.  Sorry, but if you still own him, you deserved this start.

Eric Young Jr. – 1-for-2 with his fifth steal in the last week.  Someone in the comments asked if Young plays when CarGo returns.  Good question, but I’d ferry cross that Mersey when it happens.

Matt Holliday – 1-for-3 with his 17th homer as he laughs at my Ethier comparison.  If I knew all he needed was me calling him out, I would’ve back in April.

Yadier Molina – Suspended 5 games for bumping the ump.  That’s one game for every minute the Molina family takes to do a Chinese fire drill.  “Bengie, you were driving!”  “I’m getting there, Yadi!  I stopped for lunch by the rear bumper.”

David Freese – Hit in the head by a pitch and left the game.  MLB.com said it was a changeup.  A changeup from what?  Morneau or David Wright getting hit in the head?  Freese has a mild concussion.  My best guess is he’ll miss at least a week.

Kyle Lohse – 3 IP, 3 ER.  He definitely regressed.  His ERAs per month:  1.64, 2.57, 4.55, 5.53.  That looks like one of those Price is Right games.

Last Night A DJ Saved My Team

July 25, 2011 By: Grey Category: Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes 160 Comments →

Desmond Jennings was called up. “No, he wasn’t.” “Yes, he was.” “No.” “Yes!” “Yes!” “No– Wait, I was the one saying yes.” Or so went us, me, you, we for the last two months. Why do we care so much? Because we have a void in our own lives? Oh, you meant it more why do we care about Jennings so much, gotcha. He’s the number one prospect in baseball for fantasy, according to Grey Albright, Fantasy Master Lothario. There’s guys that can hit with more power. There’s pitchers that have great stuff, but speed translates easiest to the majors and Jennings gets a lot of his value from his legs. Also, he’s had a great OBP through the minors, so getting on base shouldn’t be an issue. Then you throw in his teen homer power and you’re looking at a guy that could be B.J. Upton without the phantasmagorically bad average.  Call the engraver, we need a plaque for Cooperstown!  As with all rookies — or rooks if you have a short attention span — there’s the chance he falls flat on his face or steps on a rake and isn’t good until next year. Wasn’t like he set the world on fire last September when he was used off the bench (.190 average, 0 homers in 21 ABs with 2 steals). For his huge upside, you should take a flyer on him in every league. Yeah, even yours. Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:

B.J. Upton – As the Rays started the Jennings’ arbitration clock, they also started the Upton nice-knowing-you clock.

Alex Cobb – 7 IP, 0 ER, 6 baserunners, 2 Ks.  The Tampa Bay Peach was much better in the minor leagues this year than he’s been in the majors, and he hasn’t been too bad in the majors.  Decent flyer in deeper leagues, but he’s not guaranteed anything.  Like all of us.  Geez, that’s dark.

Zack Cozart – Just when I drop my other shortstops, deciding to roll with Cozart, he goes and gets hurt.  I know, here’s the world’s smallest violin.  Here’s you putting the world’s smallest violin on eBay and when someone meets the opening bid of one cent, they’ll play it for me.

Mike Carp – Hit two homers this weekend while maintaining his tilde .250.  BTW, someone who raises you but isn’t your mother?  Matilde.  You’re welcome, English language.  I’m making you better.

Adrian Beltre – To the DL with hammy issues.  Know who else had hammy issues?  Kermit the Frog.

Chris Davis – Called up to replace Beltre.  Someone change Bill James’s sheets!

Josh Collmenter – 7 IP, 3 ER, 6 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Through 92 innings, has a 0.93 WHIP.  That’s good.  More impressively, he’s only walked one batter in his last 21 innings.

Chase Headley – I refused to own him this year…Actually, besides Bartlett, I’ve abstained from Padre hitters.  And Bartlett just for speed.  So I wasn’t exactly following Headley’s season.  Any the hoo!  He has 3 homers on the year!!!  (Extra exclamation marks provided by my 14-year-old niece.)   And he has only two homers since April 2nd.  Your deity of choice, that’s terrible.

Phil Hughes – He was in Friday’s Buy column then he went out and served you lunch in a Port-A-John.  Totally 20/20 hindsight here, but would I start him every time out?  Nope.  Do I still think he should be owned in most leagues?  Yup.  Should he be owned in your league?  Mupe.  That’s colloquial for maybe.

J.P. Arencibia – Hit three homers this weekend to bring his season total to 15.  The funny thing — and by ‘funny’ I mean not funny at all — people ask me if I like so-and-so catcher better than so-and-so catcher, and in my head I’m like, “It’s a catcher.  Just put him in your slot and stop picking the scab.”  Unless we’re talking about the difference in McCann and Chris Iannetta, there’s very little separating most catchers.  Yet, this seems impossible to get through to people.

Eric Chavez – As the trading deadline approaches, Eric Chavez is the one player that no teams are interested in.

Gio Gonzalez – 4 2/3 IP, 6 ER in The House They Built Next To The House Ruth Built.  You’re basically drinking jungle juice straight from a bathtub if you started him here.

Hideki Matsui – 5-for-5.  I almost included him in hitters that had a big 2nd half last year, but I didn’t think it was possible for a repeat.  I figured he was too old, too tired and too effin’ blind from his huge porn collection.  He’s now hitting over .400 in the last week with 2 homers.  He also dedicated this big game to his anime-inspired wife.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia – 3-for-4, 4 RBIs as he stays hot.  He’s now hit in almost as many consecutive games as there are syllables in his name.

Dustin Pedroia – Sawx scored 12 runs and Dusty went 1-for-5 with a run.  Ticker tease!

Tim Stauffer – 5 2/3 IP, 5 ER in Citizens Flank.  See Gonzalez, Gio or 2 inches above.

Mike Trout – Not to be shown up by Carp, Trout went deep for the first time in his career.  Somewhere, Kevin Bass is smiling.  Trout’s also hitting .179, so there’s that.

Marlon Byrd – 4-for-5 yesterday and 2-for-3 with a home run on Saturday.  Member in the preseason when you drafted Byrd as your 5th outfielder?  Yeah, he could still do that.

Carlos Lee – 4-for-8 over the last two days with a homer.  First Byrd, now Carlos Lee — it’s like I found this roundup in a time capsule.

Adam Jones – Yesterday, a slam and legs to go with 2 homers over the weekend.  Next year, he’s gonna be 26 years old.  Giddy up.

Mike Stanton – 2-for-4 with his 2nd homer this weekend.  He’s younger than the youngest Culkin brother.  Yup.

Emilio Bonifacio – Hitting streak at 23 games.  Imagine he broke Joe Dimaggio’s hit streak?  Baseball historians, sporting tweed jackets, would be jumping out of windows all over our fine nation.

Gaby Sanchez – Hit three homers over the weekend.  He (she?) is having one of those borderline seasons.  In NL-Only leagues, you’re more than happy.  In mixed leagues, you’re kinda meh.

David Wright – 3-for-4 with his first home run since he returned on Friday.  Don’t want to jinx him by saying he looks like he hasn’t missed a beat, and not totally sure if it’s a jinx just by saying I don’t want to jinx him.

Bobby Parnell – 1 IP, 2 ER.  When you don’t have the closing job, but you’re trying to get it, it’s not the best move to blow a game.  Maybe he should switch to Bob or Robert to try and instill some confidence.  Bobby’s a child; this is a man’s game!

Antonio Bastardo – Got the save yesterday.  Manuel just got on the phone with the bullpen and said he didn’t care which bastard came in and Antonio warmed up.  Madson had also saved the previous two games.

Chase Utley – Hit 2 homers on Saturday.  I hope it’s the start of something magical that would make his pomade-fueled hair proud, but sadly I think his best days are behind him.

Colby Rasmus – 2-for-4 with a home run.  In an odd turn of events, Rasmus started.  And for the Cardinals.  Geiger, let’s go!

Francisco Liriano – 2 1/3 IP, 4 ER.  If someone asks if they should still own this schmohawk, they should just put their password in the comments and I’ll drop him for you.

Justin Upton – 9 for his last 11 with 9 RBIs and 2 homers.  Still enough season left for him to make his case for being a top five draft pick next year.  Go ahead scoff, you scoffer.  But if he gets to 30/20 with a .290 average, at the age of 24 you’re going to doubt him?

Brett Cecil – 9 IP, 0 ER, 6 baserunners, 7 Ks.  I’m warning you now, I’m gonna like him a lot going into next year.  You know, I like high-K, sexy pitchers that are totally inconsistent.  These guys are the insane, hot girls that you wanna date but you really shouldn’t.  Your friend, “You should break up with her.”  “We all have our quirks…”  Your friend, “She just set your car on fire.”  “But she has great breasts!”

Adam Dunn – Went 3-for-16 (.188) this week to raise his average to .160.  My man’s on fire!

Justin Masterson – 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 6 Ks.  I continue to watch every start of his with my hands in front of my eyes.  Somehow, his ERA is 2.57.

Michael Pineda – 4 1/3 IP, 7 ER as the Mariners losing streak hits 15 games.  That’s an impressive skid mark.

Brandon Allen Wrenches Away Playing Time

July 15, 2011 By: Grey Category: Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes 70 Comments →

It was a big day for one of my favorite mancrushes, Brandon Allen, as he was called up.  In Triple-A this year, 18 homers, 7 steals and a .426 OBP.  He’s cut from the same cloth as all the donkeys that have come before him.  Hopefully, he’s less 2010 Big Donkey, because Adam Dunn looks like he’s still got David Eckstein in a bjorn and letting the little man swing for him.  In the majors from Allen, first, expect nothing.  That’s always a good way to start.  At least that’s what I tell the ladies.  If the Diamondbacks give Allen ABs, which I do think they will, he will get 10 to 13 homers and a few steals.  That’s the baseline.  When you hear the baseline, you nod your head.  Or maybe that’s the bassline.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Wily Mo Pena – Designated for assignment.  That assignment is to stop sucking.

Brett Anderson – Headed for Tommy John surgery.  Jonah Hill clearly said don’t trade for him.

Ike Davis – Ike’s taking so many hits while on the DL, somewhere Tina Turner’s smiling.  Now Davis could need ankle surgery in three weeks.  By the time the Mets figure out Davis’s injury, it’s going to start to hurt him for next year.  Hey, Mets, go to a different health care provider and get off the HMO!

Carlos Beltran – Love how the rumors of him being traded heat up the same day the Mets management says the trade of K-Rod doesn’t mean they’re throwing in the towel.  Kinda like how Rocky didn’t throw in the towel until Apollo was dead.

Bobby Parnell – Still my favorite for saves, but now the Mets are saying it could be Izzy or even Pedro Beato.  I think the Mets are just trying to enhance Izzy’s trade value by saying he’s the closer.  He might get a save or two until he gets on the casino bus.

Carlos Gonzalez – Supposed to be back for Friday’s game.  To give you some insight into the inner sanctum of the ‘stache, I almost made Carlos Gonzalez a sell in this afternoon’s post.  I’m pretty worried about the wrist.  If it hurts his power, you’re looking at a top outfielder in name only.

Julio Borbon  – Could miss two months if he needs surgery on his ankle.  If this news is disheartening for your fantasy team, you have bigger fish to fry.  And for those that drank too much Wild Turkey last night and found us after they Googled “Borbon fantasy,” the hallucinations will stop soon.

Bartolo Colon – 2/3 IP, 3 ER.  Colon blow!

Andruw Jones – Hit two homers last night to pad his once Hall of Fame stats.  They should start a Baseball’s Almost Hall of Fame in Cupertino.  Andruw, Delgado and McGriff can be the inaugural class.

Justin Morneau – Was cleared to resume non-baseball activities.  So he can now do pretty much the same things he’s been doing since April.

Matt Garza – 7 IP, 0 ER, 9 baserunners, 6 Ks.  Two and a half more months of starts like this and we’ll be copacetic.

Carlos Marmol – 0 IP, 5 ER.  YOU STUPID MOTHER–  We interrupt this program to remind all our readers the importance of family.  Call someone you love and tell them they’re special.  OR CALL MARMOL AND TELL HIM HE’S PIECE OF SH– Or just go outside and smell the flowers.  ONLY IF IT’LL TAKE THE STINK AWAY FROM THIS MARMOL OUTING!

Mike Napoli – Slam and legs.  What are the chances?  Same as my chances with his Mom.

Asdrubal Cabrera – 2-for-5 with his 15th home run.  If I had access to the government’s time machine (and they have one!), then I’d go back in time to March and draft Asdrubal in the first round of every league just so I can see my leaguemates’ faces (assuming I did a draft in person).

Carlos Santana – 2-for-5 with his 14th home run.  I only mention this because I want a dozen catcher questions in the comments.  I crave your attention.  Shower me with it!

Justin Masterson – 6 IP, 4 ER, 9 baserunners, 8 Ks.  He has a 2.80 ERA, yet I don’t think I’ve felt good about starting him all year.  Cust kayin’.

Yovani Gallardo – 4 IP, 6 ER.  His Outkast song would be, So Inconsistent, So Frustrating.

Trevor Plouffe – Here was an IM exchange between Rudy and I:  R:  You should mention Trevor Plouffe as a Buy.  G: Did you make up that name?  R: No.  G:  Are you lying?  R: No.  G:  Are you sure?  R: Yes.  G: His name sounds like the sound crap makes when it hits the toilet water.  R:  He’s a shortstop with power.  For deep leagues.  G: How about I mention him in the roundup?  R: That works.  G: Should I make up a team name for this make believe player?  R: I hate you.  Rudy likes Plouffe a lot in AL-Only leagues.  Solid power at a weak position, though he could struggle for average.  Yesterday, he hit his 4th homer.  Mark Whiten, “In one game?!”  No, Mark, on the year.

Francisco Liriano – 7 IP, 1 ER, 9 baserunners, 4 Ks.  He’s my Bart, and I am his Sideshow Bob.

Delmon Young – 3-for-4, if only he could come off the DL every night, instead of every 15 days.  Member three days ago when I put him in my top 100 for the 2nd half and you did a double take?  Luckily, you didn’t do a spit take, that could mess up your keyboard.

Derek Holland – I will simply say I could pitch against the Mariners in Safeco and I throw like a girl (no offense to our 3 girl readers; if you have any friends, your man Grey is single again.  Hello!).

Jose Bautista – Twisted ankle has JB day-to-day.  Since I don’t own him anywhere, why couldn’t he be more seriously injured?  Excuse me, I need to be unbiased.  Please let him be okay (after the season).

Travis Snider – 3-for-5, with his 6th steal.  Don’t drink whatever it is Aaron Hill’s drinking with all that stealing and no power nonsense.  Please.

Eric Thames – 3-for-5, 3 RBIs and…Okay, everyone on the Blue Jays went 3-for-5 with 3 RBIs so there’s that.  I like Thames for power, which is also called hydroelectricity.  Al Gore invented that.  After the internet.

Jon Rauch – What’s six-eight with tattoos on its neck?  A giraffe at the Bronx Zoo.  Oh, and the new Blue Jays closer.  For right now at least.

Don’t Look Back In Anger: Adam Lind, Brandon Morrow, Justin Masterson

June 21, 2011 By: Albert Lang Category: fantasy baseball strategy 18 Comments →

Adam Lind – I meant to write about Lind a few weeks ago, but then he got hurt. Still, I’d be remiss if I went through this series without discussing the topsy-turvy career of the Blue Jays’ 2004 3rd round draft pick.

Lind has destroyed pitching throughout his minor league career (he batted under .300 once (.299 in just 190 plate appearances in 2007). His career minor league line is .320/.382/.512. His career AAA numbers are even better (.333/.406/.525). It is not hard, therefore, to understand why he was always a highly touted prospect.

After dominating AAA in his first promotion, the Jays gave him a cup of coffee at the end of 2006. He didn’t disappoint (.367/.415/.600) in 65 plate appearances. He did have 12 Ks to just five walks, but there was significant cause for optimism.

Of course progression in baseball is rarely linear. What goes up often comes down. In his first extended taste of major league pitching in 2007, Lind hit just .238/.278/.400, struggling mightily against lefties (.194/.243/.299). Lind was demoted back to Syracuse in July, where he proceeded to destroy minor league pitching.

The following season, Lind flashed a little promise by hitting .282/.316/.439. That OBP, however, simply does not play for a DH masquerading as a corner outfielder/first baseman. Lind was, it seemed, destined to be a AAAA player – a guy with tremendous AAA ability who just can’t handle the Bigs.

And then 2009 happened. Over the course of the season, Lind hit .305/.370/.562 and he smacked the ball around the yard prodigiously (35 HRs and 46 doubles). He also showed tremendous improvement against lefties (.275/.318/.461). From a fantasy perspective, these numbers appeared trustworthy. While his HR/FB rate was a tad unsustainable, that merely meant he was more of a 28-30 HR guy than 35 HR guy.

Then, as the rock stars say, the bottom fell out. Lind’s 2010 season was, without a doubt, the worst of his career: .237/.287/.425 as he again struggled against lefties (.117/.159/.182). Still, he suffered some bad luck as his BABIP was somewhat in the dumps and his HR/FB rate went way back to pre-2009 rates.

However, the real culprit was a regression in his approach. After getting his swinging and missing under control in 2009, Lind was back to posting a 10+% swinging strike percentage. Obviously, his contact rate went down the tubes (tying a career low in a much bigger sample). It made Lind appear to be a platoon player who should never face lefties and who might hit just 20-25 HRs with a modest average at best. He wasn’t as bad as he was going, but the rates he had posted in 2009 seemed like the high watermark for his career.

Remember: what goes up must go down and vice versa. Lind’s 2011 season has, so far, seen a return to his 2009 potential: he is crushing lefties (.304/.340/.500) and posting a .337/.382/.614 slash line. Sure his BABIP is a bit high (.341), but he is sporting a career high 25.2% line drive rate. Even more important, his HR/FB rate has skyrocketed past 2009’s number to 23.2%. He is back to swinging and missing less and making more contact (and boy what contact!). While this is probably the best stretch of Lind’s career, I don’t think it’s a mirage. When the Astroturf settles, Lind will hit 30 HRs, and bat .300/.355/.540. He’s a great 1b option.

Brandon Morrow – Just five years ago, Morrow was the 5th overall selection by the Seattle Mariners. He started in the minors in 2006 and pitched pretty well, albeit in 32 innings. He did walk a ton of guys, but his K-rate was tantalizing.

He actually broke spring training with the club in 2007 and pitched well in relief (as well as someone can with a 7.11 BB/9 rate). He started five games in 2008, but was used mostly as a reliever. Over his 45 appearances (5 starts/40 relief), he cut the walks down and posted a 10.44 K/9 rate. Still, his massive potential (who spends a top 10 pick on a reliever) suggested he would eventually be given a real shot at the rotation. The Mariners gave him ten more starts in 2009, though they also used him in relief for another 16 other games. He was then traded to the Blue Jays for a decent relief pitcher. Whoops.

In 2010, the Blue Jays used Morrow exclusively as a starter, trotting him out to the mound 26 times throughout the season. The early returns weren’t great. In 18 first half starts, he had a 2.36 K/BB rate, 1.46 WHIP and 4.86 ERA. There was potential though.  Specifically, he had 111 Ks in just 100 IPs.

In the second half, Morrow’s numbers got better.  Much better. In 46.1 IPs, Morrow had a 3.53 K/BB rate, 1.21 WHIP and 3.69 ERA. He posted an incredible 13 K/9 rate. On the one hand, Morrow was doing this primarily against the AL East – the most competitive division in baseball. On the other, talent tends to be a bit diluted in the second half, with teams inflating their rosters with prospects in the hopes of separating the AAAA players from the potential future cornerstones.

In 2011, Morrow appears to be doing his best first half 2010 impression: 2.64 K/BB, 1.49 WHIP and 5.63 ERA in 54.1 IPs.

Still, his BABIP is .358 (a decent amount over his .342 number last year). He isn’t striking out fewer batters or walking more. He is struggling with a poor strand rate (60.3%) without the corresponding high HR/FB rate. Color me a Morrow believer. Now is the time to acquire him. We’ve seen him capable of putting together top 20 SP stretches. The Ks will be there regardless, his BABIP will be similar to last year and he should end with an ERA similar to last year as well. It’ll be a fun ride as he gets there.

Justin Masterson – The Dr. Jekyll/Mr. Hyde thing that Masterson has going on has always made him something of a fantasy conundrum.  I speak, of course, about his split personalities when it comes to batters on opposite sides of the plate. To date, Masterson has allowed a .294/.376/.430 line against lefties and has a meager 1.38 K/BB rate. Against righties, he has allowed a .224/.304/.307 line with a 2.70 K/BB rate.

For him to be anything other than a reliever, he would have to figure out lefties, right? Well, sort of, it appears.

In limited samples this year (229 plate appearances versus a lefty batter, 164 with a righty), Masterson has a 2.21 K/BB rate and allowed a .308/.357/.418 line against lefties. Somewhat shockingly, he has a 1.89 K/BB rate against righties but a .204/.305/.232 slash line allowed. This is extremely odd.

So how is Masterson being so successful (3.16 ERA, 3.20 FIP and 3.71 xFIP) relative to past years? He has a slightly better strand rate than he is used to (but it isn’t crazy out of whack). His BABIP is in line with his career numbers, even though his line drive and contact rates are up and his ground ball and swinging strike rates are down. He has been walking fewer batters than typical, but he’s also not striking out as many guys.

All of that is mostly a wash. The real advantage has been Masterson’s ability to keep the ball in play to date. He has a miniscule 3.9% HR/FB rate compared to double digits for his career. That will change and it will hurt Masterson. He’s not Matt Cain (and even Cain, who really keeps the ball in play, has never had a HR/FB rate under 5.5).

I’m not overly optimistic on Masterson going forward. I don’t think he’ll be useless, but his final line will look like a 3.80 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 150 Ks. Unless Masterson can get lefties out, he’ll continue to face stacked lineups (which is why he’s faced roughly 200 more lefties than righties in his career).