Fantasy Baseball Advice

In an offseason of questionable moves for the Royals, they just one-downed themselves.  Or is it one-upped? Coco Crisp was traded to the Royals for Ramon Ramirez. This trade says more about the state of baseball than much else. The Sox send a fourth OF/bench player to the Royals where he’ll be a starter and major key to their offense. Surplus is nice when you have it, ain’t it, Epstein? If the trade were going the other way, I can only assume a middle man for the Sawx is about a number two starter on the Royals. Anyway, here’s some 2009 fantasy baseball implications for this trade:

Coco Crisp - Coco Crisp will be a starter again. For the Ministry of Silly Names, this is a great day. For everyone else, this means a very cheap potential 15/20/.280 hitter has just entered the league.  Also, with the peasant Royals, Crisp will prolly be the leadoff man, but don’t think that means much in the way of runs. David DeJesus was their primary leadoff man in 2008 and he only scored 70 runs.

Mark Teahen - This trade pushes Teahen to the bench.  Not a big loss for fantasy.

Ramon Ramirez - Has solid stuff for a middle reliever and I would consider grabbing him late in deep AL-Only leagues if you’re a Mr. B. Don’t go crazy though, he’s not really a mixed league candidate just yet.

Justin Masterson - Boom goes the dynamite!  Or is it boom goes his fantasy value? With the addition of Ramirez, Masterson could be heading into the rotation or the Sawx might use him for trade bait while his value is high. Everything I’ve read on Masterson says he’s a solid middle reliever who could be exploited in the rotation. Personally, I think a Sawx starter has value in the right matchups, even if he’s Danny Masterson little brother.

Now that I’m done recapping 2008 fantasy baseball rankings. Straight done recapping! It’s time to look at the 2008 top 20 rookie pitchers. Unlike with the top 20 rookie hitters of 2008, where I expressed a case of rookie nookie, the pitchers bring a lot more risk and I’m more hesitant to go near these guys. A rookie hitter goes 0-for-30 — oh well, drop him. A rookie pitcher goes 2 innings, giving up seven runs, and he can kill your ERA and WHIP for a week. That’s not to say I didn’t own any of these guys; I did. I’m just much more careful about them. If they’re not supplying Ks, I rarely touch them. Anyway, here’s the top 20 rookie pitchers of 2008:

20.  Nick Blackburn -  Honestly, I could’ve made this the top 14 pitchers of 2008 and you wouldn’t have lost much.  Final Numbers: 11-11/4.05/1.36/96 in 193.1 IP

19.  Scott Lewis - Only pitched 24 IP so he could make the list again in 2009. Those twenty-four innings came in 4 starts where he went… Final Numbers:  4-0/2.63/1.08/15 in 24 IP

18.  Masahide Kobayashi - I almost placed Aaron Laffey in this spot, but he was demoted after a solid April. If he had an awful April and a solid September, he might’ve made this list. Things that make you go hmm… Final Numbers:  4-5/4.53/1.42/35 in 55.2 IP

17.  Greg Smith - Out of 89 pitchers who pitched 160 innings, Greg Smith had the 89th worst run support at 2.88 runs per start.  On a contender, he could’ve been a contenda. Final Numbers:  7-16/4.16/1.35/111 in 190.1 IP

15.  Glen Perkins - 74 Ks in 151 innings? That’s a bad case of the blahs. Final Numbers:  12-4/4.41/1.47/74 in 151 IP

16.  Justin Masterson - Has the stuff/delivery for a middle man. Had the numbers of a successful middle man who had a few starts.  Final Numbers:  6-5/3.16/1.22/68 in 88.1 IP

14.  Johnny Cueto - Ah… The promise of rookie nookie and the unreliability of a roofie.  2008 might make Cueto one of the biggest fantasy bargains in 2009, but there will be plenty of time to talk about 2009.  Final Numbers:  9-14/4.81/1.41/158 in 174 IP

13.  Max Scherzer - Jobacum snowballed from a hot pickup to a minor leaguer to hot pickup.  BTW, I’m so spent on Jobacum puns I’m using snowballed.  We’ll need to have a “Please post your own Jobacum pun in the comments” post one of these days. Final Numbers:  0-4/3.05/1.23/66 in 56 IP

12.  Chris Volstad - His name sounds like he should be in a Bret Easton Ellis novel, his groundball rate was muy picante, but his K rate was muy mal. Final Numbers:  6-4/2.88/1.33/52 in 84.1 IP

11.  Clayton Kershaw - Kershaw reinforces the myth that someone with a K last name is more likely to strikeout hitters. This shizz is scientific. Final Numbers:  5-5/4.26/1.50/100 in 107.2 IP

10.  Joba Chamberlain - Somebody celebrated their top ten finish in Razzball’s top 20 rookie pitchers and went and got themselves locked up. Final Numbers:  4-3/2.60/1.26/118 in 100.1 IP

9. Jorge Campillo - For a time, Campillo filled in for Rich Hill on a bunch of my teams in 2008. But enough about me! Wait, it’s all about me, isn’t it? Final Numbers:  8-7/3.91/1.24/107 in 158.2 IP

8.  John Lannan - Not a great K rate and he’s on the Nats. What is the reason you didn’t have him on your fantasy team? Final Numbers: 9-15/3.91/1.34/117 in 182 IP

7.  Chris Perez - Save vulture says, Chris Perez is the closer. Swoop! Save vulture says, Izzy got the closing job back. Reverse swoop! Motte is the closer! I didn’t say, “Save vulture says.” Final Numbers:  3-3/3.46/1.34/42, 7 saves in 41.2 IP

6.  Joey Devine - If he gets the opportunity to be the A’s closer in 2009, I’ll be all over “Waking” Joey Devine like white on something very white, but not rice, cause that’s cliché. Final Numbers:  6-1/.59/.83/49, 1 save in 45.2 IP

5.  Hiroki Kuroda - I actually drafted this schmohawk in a ten team mixed league. Then I dropped him before the season started. Sometimes you’re the teacher, sometimes you’re the student and sometimes you’re the schmohawk. Final Numbers:  9-10/3.73/1.22/116 in 183.1 IP

4.  Jose Arrendondo - If dooode would’ve had ten more vulture wins, he would’ve had one of the best seasons ever, according to Elias Sports Bureau. Final Numbers:  10-2/1.62/1.05/55 in 61 IP

3.  Jair Jurrjens - Somehow I ended up with JJj on just about every team. Guess that’s what happens when you drafted Rich Hill and Harang in 2008. Yes, it still stings. Final Numbers:  13-10/3.68/1.37/139 in 188.1 IP

2.  Armando Galarraga -  Here’s a pitcher that I refused to believe in the entire season. His rates just were all a bit cock-eyed. So maybe I was wrong about not picking him up in 2008, but that doesn’t mean I’m going to be excited about him in 2009. Final Numbers:  13-7/3.73/1.19/126 in 178.2 IP

1.  Brad Ziegler - That he’s number one is more of an indictment on the rookie pitchers for 2008. (Edinson Volquez was not a rookie.) This is not to say Ziegler wasn’t flat-out bombilcious. Oh, he was. Whatever bombilious means. Final Numbers:  3-0/1.06/1.16/30, 11 saves in 59.2 IP

Chipper Jones says he thinks he injured himself while running out of the batter’s box. For a baseball player, this seems like a pretty innocuous place to injure themselves. How exactly do you get injured coming out of a batter’s box? Swing, turn, run. A layperson (you and I) does not come out of a batter’s box, but a similarly innocuous place might be, say, a bathroom. So imagine a buddy told you he hurt himself taking a crap. Previous week, he strained something showering. Couple of weeks ago, while putting unicorn jizz (that’s what I call toothpaste) on his toothbrush, he pulled a metacarpal. Previously, he’s broke a toe changing the TP, popped an eardrum Q-Tipping, sliced off a piece of nose while shaving, got a hernia while toweling off and he got a Grade 3 windburn from a blow dryer. Would you think your friend was a good bet to stay healthy until October? Yeah, me neither. As for Wainwright, this strikes me as really bad luck for his owners (which is me for many teams). He says that he should be fine and there’s no official word. I doubt official word is at all positive. Brace yourself for different options. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Matt Garza/Dioner Navarro - Had a scuffle in the dugout yesterday, causing Garza to get pulled early. Going forward this is a problem for one of my teams because I have both guys. Here’s my plan of action, I’m going to sit Navarro whenever Garza pitches, but in the meantime I’m going to have my corner infielder, Helton, talk to both of them about the importance of the Lord, charity and all of that. Then I’m going to bring Keith Foulke in to talk to both guys because– Wait, this is fantasy baseball, not real. Oh, yeah, then Dioner and Garza will be fine.

Kyle Lohse - 7-2. The “h” in his name is like a precarious Jenga piece.  At some point it will be pulled out, his success will collapse, and all he’ll do for your team is Lose.

Kevin Slowey - 8 ER in 3 IP. Another outing like that and he’s on the short bus back to AAA.

Aaron Harang - I’m trying not to blame that long relief outing still, but…. Ugh. He’s an excellent buy low candidate right now. He is better than his numbers.

Alexei Ramirez - 3-for-4 with a home run. The Alex(e)i with the ‘e’ is showing the Alexi without the ‘e’ they’re only similar in almost names.

Mark Reynolds - Now 6 home runs in 15 games. If you remember from the beginning of the season, Reynolds is what you call streaky.

Nick Swisher - Getting hot. If he’s on your waivers, he’s absolutely worth a pickup. He’s valuable when he’s hot.

Jason Giambi - 14th home run. Much like Ron Jeremy, Giambi sports a ’stache, swings a big bat, and appears out of shape and over the hill.

Luke Scott - From the files of abandoned outfielders that never produced, here comes another streaky hitter. Hit two home runs yesterday. Might hit three more in the next week. Cust kayin’.

Gavin Floyd - He has a 20/1 K/BB ratio in his last three starts. And his first name is Gavin. What’s not to like?

Wandy Rodriguez - Lost to the Cards, but his line doesn’t look awful. Only allowed four hits and no earned runs. 7 Ks.

Mark Teixeira - PABST has five HRs in the last 11 games. Might have officially turned the corner into a full season stud or FABST? Um… Not sure about this one anymore.

Justin Masterson - That’s it. You got what you got. I wouldn’t start him in his next start.

Curtis Granderson - I was happy to see Granderson hit a HR, but I was even happier to see him bat ninth. That makes a lot more sense than Miggy in the sixth hole.

Ryan Tucker - Must Die. I’d bid maybe a $1 in NL-Only leagues, but that’s about it.

BJ Upton - Two home runs in three days. Maybe this is when the power streak comes on. Then again, it was in Texas and Ramon Vazquez is hitting in Texas.

Vernon Wells - Not only came back early from a wrist injury, but hit a home run yesterday. I’d try and sell him quickfast.

Jose Guillen - Just in case you missed it, he hit 3 HR and 9 RBI over the weekend at Yankee Stadium. That’s now 9 HR and 45 RBI for the year (albeit with 25 R and .262 AVG).  Between this and Milton Bradley’s triple crown run, 2008 is shaping up as the year of the crazy. Jose had a incredibly silent 23/99/.290 last year in Seattle after some troubles in Washington, but he’s worth taking a flier on if he’s hanging around on the FA wire.  BTW, how incredibly dull is Carlos Guillen in comparison to Jose and Ozzie Guillen?  Jose and Ozzie Canseco were pretty nutty too.

Lots of good news coming out about Peavy’s rehab. He said, “I feel good. Could probably take three Pujols line drives off the noggin’.” He wasn’t himself to start the year and then he revealed he had an arm issue. I think Peavy’s as good as Santana if not better when healthy. You won’t find a bigger fan of Peavy than me, but pitchers with arm issues? Eh. He’s real close to a tossup between Buy and Sell to me. What convinced me on Sell? I wrote Buy or Sell on the wall of my condo, then my pet unicorn stabbed Sell with her horn. (While getting sparkle dust all over my home office and setting my allergies into high gear. Also, and I don’t want to get preachy, but it so important to spay and neuter your unicorns and to buy them from reputable dealers. Unicorn mills are a problem and only “You A Can” help. But I digress.) I see Peavy pitching well for a start or three because he’s rested now, but within a month or two he’s going to be sore again and need another break and/or DL stint.  I know this is probably the last thing an owner of Peavy wants to hear, but I’m just trying to be conservative. I’m not proposing you sell him for anything less than his worth, but I am saying you sell him. Anyway, here’s some more fantasy baseball players to buy and sell:

Psyche! (Not the TV show.) Before I get into this week’s Buy and Sell, I wanted to let you know that we have a huge announcement coming this Sunday night and I just wanted to prep people now. So if you need to take heart pills for big announcements, you’ve been warned. (BTW, we’re not selling out or welcoming any new bloggers into the mix. We’re not joining any “Network.” Razzball won’t suddenly start writing about antiquing (we’ll ween you into that). We will not start charging money to read this shizz. We’re not changing anything really, so chillax. All we’re doing is… Well, you’ll see. Let’s just say I’m giddy for all of you to know.)

BUY

Ty Wiggington - Only three home runs thus far. He could get to 20 with 2nd base eligibility, how’s that for a happy ending in Ty-Land?

Ryan Doumit - If you’re still playing the catcher shuffle, Doumit’s coming back. For what it’s worth, my unicorn is a big fan of Doumit.

Micah Owings - Not as terrific as he was, but he’s still striking out three times as many as he walks. Waivers I say, he no belong.

Chone Figgins - He’s due back soon. Sure, it took him way too long to come back the first time, but he can still be had for cheap because his owners (if there are any left) are fed up with him. Unlike Furcal (who we’ll get to), Figgins seems to run fine when he comes back from extended absences.

Jose Contreras - Don’t look now, but Contreras is on a crazy good streak. Last night’s 7 IP, 1 ER win against the Royals comes on the heels of a 3-1 May where he had a 2.45 ERA and 0.93 WHIP over 41 IP. On a more jaded note, those starts included SEA, TOR, and LAA (twice). And his K/BB was 25/12. So we upgrade him from ‘don’t own’ to ’stream starter.’ Hopefully he doesn’t quickly turn into a Cleveland Streamer.

Justin Masterson - He’s Jamaican and his next start is against the Mariners. High Times gives him their Smoking Blunt Seal of Approval™. (BTW, from the file of weird stats (Sorry, if this is your turf, Jayson Stark), the Mariners have struckout less than every other team. They also have walked the second least amount of times. Little League Coach of struggling team, “That’s it, just put it in play,” as he watches someone else groundout to 2nd base.)

Josh Anderson - Two steals in 10 ABs. He’s playing at least for the next two weeks while Kotsay mends. Anderson can steal 8 bases in the next two weeks.

Chris Carter - From the man that brought you Cancer Man, now comes a lefty slugger that should get some opportunities against righties while Papi mends. He’s worth a flier in AL-Only leagues.

Francisco Liriano - Probably will be back in late June, so depending on how aggressive your league is, you should grab him soon if you need a starter. Will he be the Liriano of old? No, not yet, but I’d grab him just to see if he’s still got it (which means, punch the wall to turn on the jukebox. Ayyyy…).

SELL

Jorge Posada - He’s back, but he needs labrum surgery and the Yanks are carrying three catchers because of their lack of faith in Posada. If you can trade Posada to someone for a piece you’re lacking, do it and grab Olivo (7 home runs and 23 RBIs in 127 at-bats) off waivers.

Travis Hafner - He’s swinging a bat again. Every bit of good news that comes out of the Pronk camp is an opportunity to sell him. Push that shizz as well as you can. For example, this is you talking to a leaguemate, “Yeah, he’s swinging a bat on his way to recovery! He was predicted to hit 30+ home runs this year, so he’s going to hit like 4 HRs every week for two months! Matter of fact, I just convinced myself not to trade Hafner! Okay, I’ll take Marmol for him.” (BTW, make sure you put exclamations on every sentence, except the one where you ask for a player. Like the The Quadratics sang, “That’s like taking candy from a baby…”)

Taipei Slinklo - I could have put any top closer here. If you’re sitting on a nine or ten in saves and your offense or starters are hurting, shame on you. Trade Taipei Slinklo? Pho sho!

Carlos Pena - I’d trade this schmohawk too, even if you’re selling low. I see him on his way, like Heidi Montag, to new bust territory.

Rafael Furcal - After taking five months last year to recover from an ankle injury and taking almost a month longer than he was supposed to for a back issue, makes me start to think he’s eating over at Nomar’s house too much. I’d try and move Furcal, he’s becoming way too brittle.

Radhames Liz - Not sure how the Orioles found another Daniel Cabrera, but they did. No wonder Leo Mazzone got out of Baltimore. (BTW, was it Glavine, Smoltz and Maddux or was it Mazzone? Part of me thinks Mazzone’s only real genius was figuring out if you rock back and forth on the bench people will think you’re some kind of Rainman savant. The other part of me feels like it’s blasphemous to even talk bad about Mazzone. Do you see how convincing that rocking is? You can’t even question it without feeling guilt. Okay, homework assignment, when your boss walks by your cubicle, rock back and forth then report to Razzball Nation your findings.)

The Yanks start Joba Chamberlain. The Mets start Pedro Martinez. The Red Sox start top prospect Justin Masterson.

You probably didn’t know any of that because traditional media is obsessed with Radhames Liz’s earning a win in his first Orioles start and Ross Gload’s struggles at winning back the Royals starting 1B position. That’s why we’re here. We like to muckrake.

So Joba was extended to 62 pitches tonight and made it all the way to 2 1/3 innings. He didn’t get hit. He couldn’t throw strikes. 4 BB in 2 1/3 IP. His control has been off all year - close to double last year’s rate. Not sure why the young Yankee pitchers forgot to throw strikes this year. I had better strike zone management playing wiffle ball in my backyard growing up.

Onto Pedro…nothing says “We missed you” like having your first start at San Francisco opposite Barry Zito. The control isn’t there yet for Pedro but his stuff looks solid for Met-era Pedro. Up 9-3 after 5 IP and throwing 90 pitches, it looked to everyone - including the announcers - that Pedro would be done for the night. But Willie was feeling a little grady (get it?) and sent him back out - probably b/c the bullpen was wiped after Oliver Perez’s 1/3 of an inning start the day before. Pedro gave up two straight hits before striking out two of the last three. Pedro’s relying on guile and his curve more than peak-era Pedro but this version could still win 10 games with decent ERA/WHIP/Ks. (BTW, isn’t it fitting that as one of Manny’s favorites goes on the DL, another one comes off? Everything turns out even steven for Manny - he’s like the Dominican Magoo.)

As for Justin Masterson, 6 innings of 6.00 ERA, 1.33 WHIP isn’t that exciting but he got the win against your 1st place Rays. With Dice-K on the DL, he’ll likely get another start or two. Depending on the matchup, he could be worth a flier. Based on recent Sox pitching prospect history, there’s an 100% chance Masterson throws a no-hitter in his next couple of starts. On a more tragic note, there’s a 50% chance that he has cancer.

Dan Uggla - Is 2B the new 1B? Uggla hit 2 bombs against Campillo and now only trails fellow second-bagger Utley for the MLB lead. When I look at his underlying stats, I’m surprised at how not surprising they are. Sure, his .300+ average is unsustainable given he has a Howardesque K rate of 30% (that’s 180K in 600 AB!). At that rate, he’s lucky to hit .270 the rest of the way. But he hit 49 doubles and 31 HRs last year. That topped Hanley on both counts (48 and 29). If he fell back to last year’s rate, he’s still got at least 15 more HRs left for this season. In a year where Cano no can do and Weeks is weak, it’s got to be nice being an Uggla owner this year….

Khalil Greene - …but, instead, I have this schmohawk. He also had an incredible number of extra base hits for an infielder last year (44 doubles, 27 HRs) that you could draft in late rounds. But he’s been Razztastic this year. .214 average with only 12 extra base hits (7 doubles, 5 HRs). You know how much it hurts to know that my Razzball SS (Cristian Guzman) is crushing Greene in all statistics?  If I had him in a shallower league, I’d drop him and pick him back up when I saw signs of life. For now, I’m just grinning and bearing it.

Albert Pujols - Left the game in the 4th inning due to calf tightness. Early reports of a hairline fracture were later corrected to a hairline recession.

Aaron Harang - 3.86 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 74 Ks in 82 IP. In line with all expectations. Well, except he’s 2-8 now after being outdueled tonight by Adam Eaton. I assume most offenses try their best to hit for struggling starting pitchers. The Giants had to be pressing to score a couple touchdowns when Zito started the season on a well-deserved 0-fer streak. But Harang? The Reds offense just hates him. They turn into a deadbell-era offense. Hell, even Jay Bruce pretends to be mortal.

Zack Greinke - 6 IP, 8 ER, 4 HR allowed…Greinkes! He’s still a useful fantasy pitcher but consider him no higher than a 5th starter. Why? The Royals suck and Greinke is just a good pitcher. 4.00 ERA at best. A little better than average Ks. Since I traded him to Grey for a since-dropped Melky Cabrera, Greinke has thrown 45 IP at a 5.40 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. I can’t believe the ESPN experts think he’s going to be more valuable going forward than Billingsley, Maine, Burnett, and Marcum. If you can swap him for any of those guys, do it. Do it now.

Randy Johnson - Now #2 in career Ks. Mullet over for a bit. It’s hard to trump Clemens these days but the Big Surly did it. Solid start by Randy (8 K’s) but he got hit in the 6th and 7th. Arizona should be content if he gives them a solid 6 IP at this point..

Erik Bedard - Another bad start for the best Canadian pitcher in the game. Buy him now as the hockey season is almost over so he’ll stop being distracted. Just make sure Alanis Morissette or Bryan Adams aren’t playing in the same city where he’s pitching.