Fantasy Baseball Advice

Right now, Jason Bartlett has a 45/8/39/.347/19 line.  At 29-years-old, he’s flying past his career numbers.  Before this season, his career high for homers was 5.  He’s already at 8.  So let’s say the talk of his new jack swing is true; he can hit for more power now.  He’s still not hitting more than 5 homers in the 2nd half (he hit 1 homer in June and July in 87 ABs).  Recently, Maddon has batted him 7th or 8th in the order.  So the runs won’t come easy unless he eats at Taco Bell.  He’s a career .286 hitter with a .398 BABIP right now, so the average will come down.  He’s never stolen more than 23 bases in a season, but let’s say he blows that away by ten.  So let’s be optimistic and say a 2nd half line of 30/5/35/.300/14.  I ran an ultraviolet light over my bedsheets and it read, “That sounds a lot like Clint Barmes’s 2nd half.”  Thanks for confirming my suspicions, bed!  So Bartlett is a Sell.  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Josh Whitesell – Speaking of -sells, but this one’s a Buy… Kinda.  Whitesell doesn’t have every day playing time right now, so grab him in NL-Only leagues, but everywhere else I’d hold tight.  So, I guess, that’s a Whitehold.

Ramon Troncoso – The only thing better than getting vulture saves for your birthday is getting vulture wins.  But I’d take some vulture saves on my half birthday (<–it’s tomorrow!).

Pedro Martinez – Already went over my thoughts on Pedro to the Phillies.  I said, “In his last 48 starts, he has a 4.74 ERA and that was in a pitchers’ park.  On the other hand, he has been solid for Ks even as his career winds down.  On the third hand, he gave up 19 homers in 109 innings last year.  Oy.  I would grab him in an NL-Only league to see if there’s a spark left from the midget era, but I’d hold off in mixed leagues.”  And that’s me saving you the trouble of searching the site yourself!

Justin Duchscherer – Expected back early August.  I’d stash him if I had a DL spot.

Garrett Jones – If you’re wondering about this guy, where ya been?  He’s now been mentioned in three straight Buy/Sells.

Jed Lowrie – Will return on Saturday.  In a weekly AL-Only league, I’ve already activated him.  In a mixed league, where I’m rocking Everth Cabrera, I’m not sure what I’m going to do.  I’ll probably drop Lowrie because even in his Sons of Sam Horn-deemed huge year in 2008, he had 2 homers and one steal while batting .258 in two-hundred and sixty at-bats.  Pardon me while I yawn.

Marcus Thames – Has 3 homers in the last six games.  He can hit 7 more homers in the month of July before he becomes unusable in August, i.e., he’s streaky like Spike’s hair from Degrassi Junior High.  If Thames ever becomes a regular fantasy contributor, I have the title, “A Thames Runs Through It” burning a hole in my pocket.

Alex Gordon – Hey, it’s Grey’s favorite prospect that makes San Diego prospect, Nadir Bupkus, look valuable.  Boing! The best you could hope for from Gordon is a 5 to 7 homer 2nd half and 5 to 7 steals.  Those are optimistic when you consider he just had hip surgery.  Gordon’s worth grabbing if your corner spot is in dire straits, Mark Knopfler.

Edwin Encarnacion – To answer comment #76, “I’d go with Edwin over Alex Gordon.”

Mat Latos – The newest of the HodgePadres.  He was dissected in a Scouting the Unknown a few weeks ago.  I’d grab Latos in all leagues 12 or deeper.

Brandon Wood – Don’t blame Scioscia, where do you put a guy named Wood other than the bench?  It’s the power of the aptronym (<–Word of the Day!).  So, how long you think Scioscia extends Wood?  Hmm… Let’s rephrase.  How long until Wood’s demoted again?  Week?  Two?  I hope Wood’s up for good and getting regular at-bats, but I have my doubts.  He’s worth a flier but I wouldn’t invest too heavily.

SELL

Jay Bruce – Since I had no DL spot, I dropped him for Troncoso in a 15 team league.  He might return in 6 weeks.  Awesome!  He wasn’t hitting when his wrist was one piece.  I’d hold him in keepers and deep NL-Only leagues.

Dan Haren – The dog days of summer don’t do him justice.  Maybe he’s part-Albino and he’s scared of sun damage.  Whatever the case, the stats don’t lie.  Not since 2005 has he pitched well in the 2nd half.  And that was following a season of 46 innings in 2004, so my guess is he tires.  From 2006 through 2008, his 2nd half ERAs have been 4.91, 4.15 and 4.19, respectively.  Every way you look at it, he’s not the pitcher in the 2nd half as he has been in the 1st half.

Casey McGehee – McGehee has been slowed by patella tendinitis in his knee.  (I went to college with a Patella.  Sweet girl.)  McGehee’s 3 for his last 17 and has sat out three games in the last week.  As I said all along, McGehee wasn’t that great to begin with, if he’s hurting, there’s no reason to wait around.  It sure didn’ take McGehee long to go from a Buy to a Sell.  (BTW, the “T” that I left off of “didn” is being boxed up and shipped to Mat Latos.)

Ohmigod, Grey’s totally going against Rudy’s risky pitcher post?  They are so fighting.  I hope Rudy rips off Grey’s stache.  $5 says it’s not real. Uh-hum.  I can hear you, random italicized voice.  I’m actually typing you!  My bad. So, yes, Jon Lester is a risky pitcher.  But at this point, he’s also a buy.  His ERA’s 6.31.  That’s ridunkiculous from where it should be.  He’s pitching well (minus some ill-timed long balls), tremendous K-rate, solid walk rate.  A pitcher who is pitching well and has a 6.31 ERA is such a crazy buy, that I wouldn’t be surprised if his owners weren’t even selling.  But, on the other hand, they’re smarting from his earned runs.  They may see LaTroy Hawkins or Jason Bartlett and be like, “Hey, Lester’s killing me, why not take a guy that at least has been good?”  That’s why you prey on those suckas.  This is why you have brass balls and you just chucked one at your mean lady neighbor who keeps bugging you when you turn the Dropkick Murphys to eleven and put it on repeat.  I’m a sailor peg!!!  And I lost my leg!!!  I love that song.  Wait, what was I saying?  Oh, yeah.  Lester — get him, within reason.  Anyway, here’s some more players to Buy and Sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Justin Duchscherer – If he’s on waivers and you can stash him on your DL, stash away.

Koji Uehara – I mentioned his delicious tacos and WHIP the other day then afterwards I think I heard a pin drop.  What, no love for Koji?  1.12 WHIP and 32/7 K/BB in 42 and two-thirds innings.  Get on the taco truck!

Nolan Reimold – “Weiters, you gotta see the meals they give you!  And the towels… They’re not hard from dried glue!  Oh, and I saw the guy that played Bunk in the stands.  Markakis is gonna take me to Dick’s Last Resort tonight.   Oh, it’s all so wonderful.  I’ll try to write again soon.”  Reimold has about 20 homers and a .280 if he were to play every day for the rest of the year.  I think he falls about 8 homers short of those projections.  If he gets hot, you might be able to flip him.

Chris Coghlan – Has the best opportunity to impress because the Marlins will give anyone a fair shot.  Shoot, they’re still waiting on Hermida!  Coghlan can give you middle infielder numbers at 3rd.  15/15 might be his ceiling for this year.

Gerardo Parra – Rookie Nookie is alive and well.  Hinch says Parra will see time.  Might be because he wants to put his stamp on the team.  Who’s Hinch?  Not important.  Parra can run.

Mat Gamel – The end all be all.  The big mah-hoff.  The head cheese.  The one guy I would’ve benched for a month in a keeper league.  But he has no playing time.  It may be too early for him.  But in deep leagues if you’re sitting on a random schmohawk middle reliever, and Gamel’s available, it’s worth the two week gamble to sit him on your bench and see what he does.  Don’t drop the Queen for the Rook, but you can drop a Pawn.

Ricky Nolasco – Another risky pitcher.  He’s either hurt or he’ll be much better.  Again, I’m not saying drop Cueto to grab him.  But Nolasco’s owners are definitely fed up with him, so it would pay to buy him very cheaply now and hope for a correction.

Rich Hill – Could be on his way back.  Honestly, I’m not picking him up in any league.  I’d pick up three Randy Wolfs and five Gaudins (Hey, I’m an art collector!) before I picked up one Rich Hill.  He’ll have tough match-ups, his meltdowns are legendary, I’m just not that brave.  I can understand it in deep leagues, just won’t be me.

Ian Stewart – With Alex Gordon on the DL, someone’s gotta be my crush.

Jerry Hairston Jr. – He’s hot right now.  Not sure if it’ll last, but it doesn’t hurt to take a two week flier on a middle infielder.

Emmanuel Burriss – George Papadapolis owns him.  Why won’t you?

Ryan Madson – Lidge has been a mess.  Something’s up.  Ain’t his value.

Juan Cruz – Shouldn’t be on waivers in any league that counts saves.  Soria has shoulder trouble.  ‘Nuff said.  Or enough, if you’re a completist.

David Aardsma – Will be getting saves by next Monday.  May get them for the next month.

SELL

Joakim Soria – Don’t trade him (or drop him) right now.  But at the first sign of good news or when he returns, I’d explore trade offers for him.  When a team checks to see if there’s structural damage on your closer’s shoulder, it’s not good news no matter the results.

Any Schmohawk The Nats Put In the 9th Inning Role – I’m one of the biggest save vultures you’ll ever meet.  I own Dan Wheeler for crimey sakes!  Still, I’m not going near this one.  Kip smells, Hanaratty, Bye-mel… None of them.

Brian Roberts – He has 5 steals and 3 times caught.  He’s 31 years-old.  Maybe he lost that extra step that makes all the difference.  If you’re banking on 40 steals, you might want to look at trading Roberts and picking up Burriss.

Jason Bartlett – Let’s see, he’s batting .369.  He’s a .285 hitter.  He has 5 homers, that’s tied for his career high.  He has 9 steals.  Maybe he gets to 30.  So you’re looking at a guy who’s bumping his head on his ceiling and you wanna get on his back? Not unless you wanna fall for the old banana in the tailpipe.

Losing Gary Sheffield from your fantasy baseball team is about the best thing that could’ve happened to you if you owned him. This isn’t really a big fantasy story as far as Sheff goes.  He was a decrepit ex-roider.  (He was a great hitter to watch in his prime and it’s sad when great players devolve into nomadic, expensive NVORPS (negligible value over replacement players).  For every neat and tidy retirement like Ripken and Gwynn, there seems to be at least three like this.) The best thing that could happen is he ends his career at 499 homers.  Instant karma’s gonna get you.  What this does do is open up a spot for someone else.  As I said in the comments yesterday, “The Thames runs through it.”  Damn, I’m pithy.  I’m like Charles Nelson Reilly on The Match Game pithy.  RIP, C N R, you were one of a kind… Until me.  Marcus Thames is a source of 20 – 25 HRs and a .240 average.  Not bad for AL-only but not remarcusable.  He usually only plays against lefties, so I’m not sure if Sheff’s departure gives him that many more ABs.  He’s a masher to watch.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in spring training for fantasy baseball:

Joey Devine – Now Aching Joey Devine is off to see Dr. Freeze.  Ugh.  This never turns out well.  Casilla is Ziegler’s handcuff for the time being.

Scott Lewis – Gave up 10 runs in less than 4 innings.  As I said last week when he got the starting job, you don’t really want him.

Justin Duchscherer – Surgery went well.  A stitch without a hitch!  (Alliteration in lieu of wit.)  He’ll be back by June.  Wake me when I care.

Emmanuel Burriss – Webster won the 2nd base job!  The cherubby 2B stole 51 SB in a minor league season and SAGNOF is better at MI than OF.

David Murphy – As I said in my fantasy baseball 300, platoon this doode with Byrd.

Alexi Casilla – Why does every starting MI in the AL Central have a Russian first name?  The Tigers need Edgar back to round out the Perestroika.  Casilla’s hitting over .400 in spring training and he stole 50 SBS at A/AA in 2006 then 11 in a short stint with the Twins in 2007.  But he only stole 7 last year in 385 ABs with the Twins.  At MI, it doesn’t really matter if you need steals.

Alexei Ramirez – Fellow comrade was back in the lineup and again in the eight hole.  Diamonds are from Sierra Leone and Ozzie’s from Mars.  I’m not going to stress this yet, but if it continues into the season, Ozzie and I will be having words.

Russell Branyan – Having a nice spring.  When Branyan grows up, he wants to be Jack Cust.

Huston Street – Announced he’ll find out by Thursday if he’s the closer.  I think he gets over that last… *pinkie to mouth* Hurdle.

Ryan Braun – Left the game yesterday with a bruised thumb.  X-rays turned up negative.  I hear that means it’s positive.  Not sure why they can’t just say that.

Dexter Fowler – Made the club.  Keepers and NL-Only’ers rejoice.

Gaby Sanchez – He (she?) was optioned to The Big Easy.  The opening for Bonifacio appears to widen.

Jeff Keppinger – Big trade came in off the wire yesterday.  Keppinger to the Astros.  Now that’s how to build a team up after losing Ausmus.  We were rooting for Bill Bialystock from Houston’s Double-A affiliate in Corpus Christi to get promoted and platoon with Blum.  Now that’s a platoon that can produce!

Geoff Blum – Seems pretty puzzled that he’s in the running for opening day 3rd baseman, saying “There’s an outside chance. I’m not going to believe it until I see my name in the lineup or they give me the OK…”  Geoff added, “I can’t believe my wife has sex with me.  I don’t believe she’s going to let me until I have it halfway in.”

Back in early November, I said, “Gregg, Cubs Closer?”  Well, remove the question mark and call me Nostradumbass.  It’s not surprising at all to me that Marmol’s not going to be the closer to start the season.  There’s no reason in debating whether Piniella made the right decision.  Of course he didn’t.  Joking.  There’s points for both sides.  As I said the other day, do you wanna lose the game in the 8th or the 9th?  Either way, all you should concern yourself with is who is getting the saves.  The pickle here is Marmol is actually worth owning even if he only gets 5-10 saves all year.  So if you drafted Marmol, I’d hold him just to pad your pitching stats.  If you have Gregg, nice late pick in your draft.  You probably just fell into 35 saves.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in spring training for fantasy baseball:

Brandon Morrow – Says he’s the closer.  And so it is.  You know what?  Every single one of you sitting around reading this blog for the last month could’ve stepped up and said you’d be the closer for the Mariners.  But what did you do?  You watered down the ketchup, made sure everyone’s coffee was hot and passive-aggressively stuck broken glass under your eighteen-year-old boss’s car tires.  You had to know with the top option being Miguel Batista that the job could’ve been yours.  Now march into your job and tell them you’re the new fry cook.  You got hot oil skillz!  Morrow’ll be fine as the closer if he can get/stay healthy.  Not sure what they’re going to do with Chad Cordero.  Maybe they can turn him into the starter Morrow should’ve been.

Jeff Clement – In a disappointing move, Clement was sent down.  You know where he went wrong?  He should’ve told the Mariners he was their catcher.  Guess Mattel can sponsor that Kenji doll night now.  Mommy, why doesn’t Kenji have a….THAT’S HIS ATHLETIC SUPPORTER!

Carlos Villanueva – As I mentioned in our fantasy baseball forums, Villanueva will fill-in for Trevor Hoffman.  Is Villanueva the best guy for the job?  Who knows?  Doesn’t matter.  SAGNOF.   Ours is not to reason why, ours is to pickup up the replacement closer and hope he keeps the job, unless of course you have Hoffman too.  You got to remember to Handcuff the Hoff!

Brett Gardner – Named opening day center fielder for the Yanks.  Back in November, I sowed the Gardner.

Matt Lindstrom – Appears to be on track to open the season.  Unless you have a pressing need somewhere, I’d hold Nunez for now.

Hanley Ramirez – Hit a HR.  Sore shoulder better?  You make the call!  Or not.

Chris Carter – Might get a shot to be a reserve outfielder for the Sawx.  The Red Sox were missing that Sci-Fi edge in the outfield since Manny left.

Troy Glaus – Rehab from shoulder surgery isn’t going so well.  Word is he might not make it back in late April/early May after all.  Bet they are regretting that Rolen for Glaus trade now!

Joe Mauer – Expected to miss the first month of the season.  The bad back must be from carrying the dwindling pennant hopes of Twins fans.  Let’s hope Liriano doesn’t strain his elbow picking up some of the slack.

Justin Duchscherer – Having elbow surgery.  Supposed to be out a month.  I forget what I said and I don’t feel like looking it up, but I think I pegged him for 5 starts this year.  Duchscherer’s elbow problems may have been exacerbated by autograph-seeking fans this spring.  You gotta stop at J.D., man!

Kelvim Escobar – I keep mentioning this guy, but in the last league I drafted I was able to snag him with like the 345th pick.  Um, he should be going before that.  When healthy (which he’s nearing), he’s good.

Chris Young – It’s a hard knock life being a 6′10″ pitcher.  More strain in throwing the ball down, bigger target to comebackers, lack of selection in Big & Tall shops, etc.  He’s been rather bad in Spring Training.  Perhaps it’s time to recognize that a pitcher can only go so far with a sub-90 MPH fastball and a unique propensity for fly ball outs.  Hopefully, he’ll come around and be solid, at least in Petco.

Mark Teahen – A positive reflection of the Royal roster is that there are less open spots to stash the mediocrity of Mark Teahen.  Last stop – 2nd base!  From a fantasy perspective, that’s not half bad.  Just 40% bad.

John Smoltz – He was due back June 1st but he’s ahead of schedule.  Now they are saying perhaps mid-May.  If you’ve got 2 DL slots in your league, might as well stash him in one.

Taylor Teagarden – Officially backing up Salty.  I think he can still get 300 ABs and contribute.  When asked why Saltamacchia over Teagarden, Texas brass explained, “Salty’s name goes to 12!”

Jeremy Guthrie – Opening Day starter for the Orioles.  Now if they can figure out a way for it to rain four out of five days, they should be fine.

Dontrelle Willis – On DL with anxiety disorder.  He’s been Greinke’d!  Maybe he just needs a Miguel Olivo hug.  Maybe he’ll go the Ankiel route.  You know, Willis was a very good hitter in the NL.  There’s got to be a Razzball glossary term for a hitter trapped in a pitcher’s body.  How about… Redesignated Hitters.

Alas, for now the Rays are Price-less.  (To recall a conversation I once had with my grandmother after she threw out my 1986 Sportsflic Jose Canseco rookie card, “That card was priceless!”  “Yeah, because it wasn’t worth shit.”)  Frankly, I’m surprised the Rays sent David Price down.  I thought he would start in the bullpen then get starts by the end of April/beginning of May, accumulating 150 innings.  Jason Hammel and Niemann! are far from reliable guys for a team that is supposed to be in the AL East race, but I underestimated the Rays’ thriftiness.  Why are we serving Gulden’s when French’s is twenty-seven cents cheaper?! In the comments on the 2009 Rays fantasy baseball preview, Rudy said I was being too optimistic.  Looks like I was.  Guess that’s why I rock a ’stache and Rudy has the much more with-it ‘fro.  I’d hold Price in 10 team mixed leagues and deeper.  My prediction is we see Price by mid-May in the majors and he makes a fantasy impact for his patient owners.  If patience is the key, then show me the lock.  Anyway, here’s what else has been going on in spring training for fantasy baseball:

Matt Wieters – I’ve been saying all along that he’s headed to the minors.  So one out of two ain’t bad.  Wieters will be flying into Norfolk International Airport sometime on Monday night.  Looks like another financial decision.  He should be back with the club by mid-May.  If you drafted him, you have to wait on him.  Well, I mean you don’t have to, but what was the point otherwise.  When Gregg Zaun heard the news, he should have had this to say, “If getting demoted so I can start doesn’t kick you in the pants, nothing will.”

Daniel Murphy – I’ve been too lax in mentioning this guy.  Word out of the foothills of St. Lucie is Murphy is batting 2nd.  This is great news for a guy who rocks a solid OBP.  He could be the Mets answer to Kelly Johnson.  It’s more attractive at 2nd base, but there’s a place on some teams for that in the outfield.

Ervin Santana – Rudy told you 20 risky pitchers.  Ervin was one.  You didn’t wanna believe it.  It’s the ‘fro, yo!  (Easy, TCBY.  That’s not fro-yo.)

Shawn Hill – Someone in the comments nicknamed him Baby Webb.  I have no idea why, but Baby Webb is now on the Padres.  Um, a pitcher I like pitching in Petco?  Give me a pen and show me the X.

Kelvim Escobar – He made Rudy’s bounceback pitchers post.  He says you’re welcome.

Tommy Hanson – Maybe he’ll be back in September.  Cut him outside of keepers.

Rafael Soriano – Going to the DL.  In other news, Chipper’s probably hurt too.

Carlos Marmol/Kevin Gregg – Lou will decide this weekend if the Cubs want to begin the year by giving up runs in the eighth or the ninth.

Todd Helton – Retire for the sake of the Rockies.

John Lackey – Forearm tightness.  This is almost as surprising as the Soriano injury.  I’d never expect more than 25 starts from Lackey.

Justin Duchscherer – To start season on the DL?  No way! *Grey turns off faux shock*

Chris Davis – In spring, hitting bombs, striking out and taking names.  And that’s what you should expect in the season, too.

Anderson Hernandez – Hurt.  You can’t keep Ronnie Belliard down!

Felipe Lopez – Going to be leading off and he wants to steal a lot of bases.  He’s already stolen 44 in a season.  He’s eligible all over.  I’m thinking of taking him 13 times in my next draft.

David Aardsma – I suppose he could win the closer job in Seattle, but… David Aardsma?  Eh.

Ryan Braun – He’s hurting right now.  He’s not saying anything because he’s a gamer, but he’s unable to swing a bat.  Frankly, I’m a bit worried.  It was one thing for him to have issues last September, but now they’re returning in April.  I’d still draft him in the first round, but I’d expect a slow start.

Scott Lewis – Him and Anthony Reyes might deserve their own posts, but they’re not getting them just yet.  Scott Lewis doesn’t have overpowering stuff, but then he put up numbers in the minors like he does.  I’d prefer a NL fifth starter (think: Randy Wolf) over a guy with a mid-80s fastball pitching in the AL.  Oh, and he gives up flyballs.  Pass.

Anthony Reyes – I’m a bit of a sucker for a failed prospect making good on old promises (See continuing admiration for Alex Gordon).  Don’t even get me started with my love for guys that iron their hat brim.  So it comes with little shock, I like Reyes.  I like him more than the aforementioned Lewis.  Again, I prefer to go NL in mixed leagues when this deep into starters and I wouldn’t own Reyes in a ten team league yet, but he has good stuff.  He’s an injury risk so don’t pay too much.  Actually, don’t pay anything for either of these guys.  You should be dropping lame bench hitters to take a chance on Reyes.  I see Ryan Church.  I dump Ryan Church for Anthony Reyes.

Micah Owings – You never know how these things turn out.  Fifth starter on the Reds emerges?  Could be.  I’d own him before two other Reds starters.

George Sherrill – He’s choking on turkey bones so far this spring and this year he has Chris Ray to step in and resume closer duties.  Chris Ray may be getting saves as soon as mid-April.

Brian Fuentes – Every year some closers come out of nowhere and erase any faith we had in them coming into the year.  I think this year is Fuentes’s.  His velocity is way down because of a bad back.  Bad backs linger and velocity issues don’t just go away.  With two quality replacements behind him, I think if you own Fuentes, you might want to start making other plans.

Dallas McPherson – Punt.

Adam Jones – Ty Wigginton, “Dude, you totally bogarted my whole box of Twinkies!”  Adam Jones, “Mea culpa, my man.  I was out stealing bags and hitting home runs this spring, and every time I looked up I would see Felix and Adam and I kept reading Pie Eaton.”