Fantasy Baseball Advice

Last week we went over the fantasy baseball busts of 2008 and yesterday we went over 20 best draft picks for the hitters in 2008. Today, we go over the best value for their 2008 draft picks — the pitchers. The top 20 best draft picks of 2008 were figured out the same way I figured out the busts, using Rudy “Point Shares” Gamble’s fantasy baseball player rater. You’re not going to see someone such as Brandon Webb on this list, because he was drafted high and supposed to perform well. The players on this list are late round gold nuggets found between the turd nuggets. In each entry, I put the Average Draft Position (ADP) and the Minutes of Erection (MOE) metric, which I made up to illustrate how much you enjoyed owning these fantasy baseball pitchers. Anyway, here’s the 20 best draft picks of 2008, the pitchers:

20. Joe Saunders - If owning Saunders caused you to have an erection that lasted longer than forty-five seconds, you should see a doctor. ADP, 330 — MOE, 0:45

19. John Danks - Danks turned out to be a solid contributor for the back end of a fantasy staff. *laughing a la Beavis and Butthead* I said, “staff.” ADP, Undrafted — MOE, 2:57

18. Grant Balfour - I don’t want to focus too long on the math of this because that’s Rudy’s job, but, according to Point Shares, Grant Balfour gave you .47 points in the standings. To compare, Carlos Marmol, Kazmir and Jenks are a few guys who had good seasons, but gave you less value. ADP, Undrafted — MOE, 4:01

17. Jon Lester - Lester’s season was so good it forced Lance Armstrong back out of retirement. Nobody steals Lance’s cancer-surviving thunder! ADP, 274 — MOE, 6:30

16. Derek Lowe - Turned in a solid year in a contract* year. *For Dodgers, contract refers to what STD you catch from Alyssa Milano. ADP, 182 — MOE, 7:42

15. Brad Lidge - I hope he breaks Gagne’s record of consecutive saves. That’s not a joke or sarcasm. I really do. These are the things I care about. ADP, 167 — MOE, 10:27

14. Justin Duchscherer - Too bad he’s sporting a porcelain hip. ADP, 331 — MOE, 14:59

13. Kerry Wood - At the draft, you said to your friend, who’s a Cubbies fan, “You may as well put Wood directly on your DL now.” Who’s laughing now, dooode? ADP, 312– MOE, 22:00

12. Edinson Volquez - Mock Draft Central says Volquez went undrafted in 2008, but like Cueto the other day on our bust list, Edinson was drafted in all of my leagues. I told you to draft him about a dozen times in the preseason. ADP, Undrafted — MOE, 27:03

11. Mike Mussina - I didn’t pickup Mussina in any league. That’s not to say I was right, but when a 39-year-old dude declines for five years then picks it up suddenly, I don’t buy into it. ADP, 332 — MOE, 9:20

10. Joakim Soria - Is it JO-akim? JOKE-im? Why doesn’t ESPN have his last name’s pronunciation on his player card? It’s like 1776 up in this piece with no love for the Royals. ADP, 158 — MOE, 29:47

9. Ricky Nolasco - My twelve-year-old cousin texted me this, “GNBLFY, but thought U were crackaz when U told me 2 pick up Nolasco. Thx. BTW, U C RR/RW? Bananas is in trouble! L8r.” NP. ADP, Undrafted — MOE, 33:51

8. CC Sabathia - In April, it seemed like Sabathia was going to weigh down your team, then he ended up anchoring it. (<– Play on words, boyz!) ADP, 53 — MOE, 37:50

7. Mariano Rivera - I’ve mentioned this before, but I don’t think I ever got my answer. Why does every other closer generally go by his last name and Rivera goes by Mariano? Out of respect? Maybe, but people didn’t call Eck, “Dennis.” Someone post the answer in the comments. Thanks! ADP, 101 — MOE, 44:27

6. Ervin Santana - Of course there’s a Santana on this list. Ervin? Zoinks! ADP, 330 — MOE, 44:30

5. Ryan Dempster - Coming off back-to-back lackluster seasons as a closer, he’s lights out as a starter. When I say, “No rhyme…” You say, “No reason…” “No rhyme…” “No reason…” “No rhyme…” “No reason…” ADP, 331 — MOE, 44:41

4. Rich Harden - Harden gave the value of someone drafted 2nd round. Now, if you did draft him in 2nd round, the reactions at the draft would’ve been split between committing you to a psych ward and banning you from the league, but imagine the end of the year reactions. Your leaguemates would be searching your room for Biff Tanner’s sports book. (BTW, am I the only one who thinks about time travel at least once a day? I am? Okay, moving on…) ADP, 210 — MOE, 53:15

3. Roy Halladay - According to Point Shares, Halladay gave you more than a 10 point swing in the standings. So if you won with 70 points carrying Halladay, you would’ve only had 60 with the average pitcher off waivers. ADP, 98 — MOE, 59:01

2. Tim Lincecum - 265 Ks in 227 innings. Mmm…. That’s like looking at a young Suzanne Somers. (BTW, and sorry to freak you out like this, but Suzanne Somers is 62 years old. That’s a GILF.) ADP, 119 — MOE, 59:50

1. Cliff Lee - Your leaguemate, “Of course you won. You had Cliff-freakin-Lee!” Yup, that’s what Cliff Lee did to people this year. ADP, Undrafted — MOE, 59:59

The other day I went over the top 20 starters for 2008, but, as with the top 20 outfielders for 2008 going to 21 - 40 outfielders for 2008, I’ll also be going through the top 21 - 40 starters for 2008. This is after going through the top 20 catchers, top 20 1st basemen, top 20 2nd basemen, top 20 shortstops and top 20 3rd basemen. All of these rankings are based on the ESPN Player Rater, which sometimes smells of Muenster cheese, but I want Swiss-like neutrality when comparing my preseason predictions with final numbers. For the best player rater, download our Razzball fantasy baseball player rater. (How’s that for neutrality!) Anyway, here’s the rest of the top 40 Starters for 2008 in fantasy baseball and how they compared to where we originally ranked them:

21. Jon Lester - Rather than speak on Lester, I’m going to discuss the obvious problem with pitching. It’s unpredictable. 15 out of these 20 top starters weren’t even ranked in the preseason. This is not to say they weren’t drafted; they were. Just lower than they ended up ranking. Yes, this was me ranking the starters, so perhaps I was the only one not ranking them correctly. No, this isn’t true. Missing on 75% of these starters was Shandler, ESPN, Rudy “Player Rater” Gamble, Sportsline, Baseball Prospectus, Rotowire, et al. Now Razzball has the smartest readers — no doubt — but chances are you missed a few too. Imagine if you drafted Rich Hill, Adam Wainwright, John Maine and Aaron Harang on a lot of teams like I did. Trouble, right? Well, I still finished with respectable pitching numbers. How? Cause I picked up Guthrie, Buehrle, Randy Johnson, Greinke, Volquez and Slowey on a lot of teams. Teams that I needed more help on I had Campillo, Jurrjens, Cook and Ubaldo at varying times. Not to mention, some middle relievers. The point is, as the point always is, pitching is unpredictable. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  16-6/3.21/1.27/152

22. Jake Peavy - In all fairness, out of 89 starters who threw 160 innings, Peavy had the 85th worst Run Support. Preseason Rank #1, Preseason Predictions:  20-5/2.75/1.05/230, Final Numbers:  10-11/2.85/1.18/166

23. Justin Duchscherer - Duchscherer was lucky to place this high. That’s not to say, he sat around with his fingers crossed hoping I would rank him high. No, it’s to say Duchscherer gave up a crapload of hits and didn’t strikeout enough in 141+ innings. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  10-8/2.54/1.00/95

24. A.J. Burnett - So that’s what he looks like healthy — an AL righthanded Oliver Perez. Preseason Rank #24, Preseason Predictions:  14-8/3.85/1.20/170, Final Numbers:  18-10/4.07/1.34/231

25. Ted Lilly - It’s no surprise that I came pretty close with my preaseason predictions for Lilly. He’s predictable. The anti-Oliver Perez. Preseason Rank #35, Preseason Predictions:  16-8/4.20/1.20/160, Final Numbers:  17-9/4.09/1.23/184

26. Zack Greinke - Back in May, Rudy got Greinke’d when I traded Melky for this nervous breakdown-prone starter. Then Greinke Greinke’d me, he posted a 5.22 July, so I dropped him and he ended up posting ERAs of 2.48 and a 2.18 in August and September respectively. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  13-10/3.47/1.28/183

27. Joe Saunders - 103 Ks in 198 innings? Yuck. For fear of Saunders ruling over any team I own with a coup d’blah, he becomes the first starter that has appeared in the 40 forty starters list that I can say right now will not be in my top 40 for 2009. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  17-7/3.41/1.21/103

28. John Danks - Guess what Danks will be next year? A third year starter! Oh, I do love those. But we are still looking back right now. Danks took the next step in 2008. Walks were down, K/9 rose, HRs fell… If you throw out a Snelly July ERA of 4.97, his season would look even better. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  12-9/3.32/1.23/159

29. Gavin Floyd - Here’s someone that I’m not as excited about. If you look past his win total, you’ll see home run balls and not the best strikeout numbers. He showed luck in 2008; don’t bet on luck. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  17-8/3.84/1.26/145

30. Scott Baker - His K/BB and K/9 ratios were solid as he took the right step forward on a team that knows how to handle its pitchers. Now if the Twins would chuck some duckets at a free agent bat, they might be real contenders and not poseurs. (That’s right; I used poseurs in a sentence. Deal with it!) Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  11-4/3.45/1.18/141

31. Josh Beckett - The moral of the story is never count on Wins and don’t trust a blonde in an abandoned bear house with free porridge. Preseason Rank #9, Preseason Predictions:  19-9/3.90/1.20/190, Final Numbers:  12-10/4.03/1.19/172

32. Armando Galarraga - Maybe it’s because his name sounds like he should be contending for the Intercontinental Championship rather than the ERA title, but I never got behind Armando Galarraga this year. (Might also have been his crazy lucky BABIP.) Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  13-7/3.73/1.19/126

33. Scott Kazmir - Kazmir stays relatively healthy, the Rays win the AL East and he only gets 12 Wins. Not to mention, Kazmir usually peacocks his walks with Ks, but they were down this year. Ah… The mystery of Kazmir continues.  Preseason Rank #22, Preseason Predictions:  14-8/3.75/1.30/210, Final Numbers:  12-8/3.49/1.27/166

34. Gil Meche - In 2008, I never threw the Meche net in my starters stream. I had enough with Greinke, who is slightly better if only a bit more risky. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  14-11/3.98/1.32/183

35. Randy Johnson - You know how you have two crazy uncles. (You do; trust me.) One crazy uncle likes to shoot Budweiser cans out of your cousin’s hand and your other uncle married a Tahitian and runs a “hemp” shop. Randy’s the one shooting holes in Buds and Moyer’s toking the hemp pullover. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  11-10/3.91/1.24/173

36. Todd Wellemeyer - A thirty-year-old breakout? Whatevermeyer. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  13-9/3.71/1.25/134

37. Mark Buehrle - Buehrle sported a near-6.00 ERA during the day. He obviously needs some pointers from JDog on his day game. Maybe Buehrle could break out the Joe D. gambit, “Did you see that fight down the street?” Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  15-12/3.79/1.34/140

38. Shaun Marcum - Bummer his season was cut short by Dr. Freeze. We’ll see him on 2010 Sleeper lists. (Also, in 2010, your neighbor will have a flying car that you will be so sick of him parking in front of your 2nd floor bedroom window.) Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  9-7/3.39/1.16/123

39. Kevin Slowey - Hey, Mr. Radke, when you’re done looking at Scott Baker, check out this three pitch induced groundout. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  12-11/3.99/1.15/123

40. Jamie Moyer - (Continued from Randy Johnson) …Then the government comes and confiscates Moyer’s “hemp” store and you’re left looking after his six kids as he does three large in the big house. You decide you’re going to ignore three of the misfits because they’re already gone. The three you do keep an eye on make a commendable turnaround and barely even smell anymore. Then one day you put your Uncle Randy in charge of watching them only to return to ABC Breaking News that Randy and your three cousins were arrested trying to rob a Wells Fargo bank. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  16-7/3.71/1.33/123

There’s just over a week left on the season. Really, at this point, anything goes in non-keeper leagues. If you don’t need home runs because the schmohawk right behind you is 12 home runs away, but you desperately need steals, why are you still carrying Adam Dunn? You waiting for his speed to come around? Pickup some steals. All you need is two saves to gain a point and you’re sitting on excess starters? Punt! Pickup some possible closers. Of course, you need to think about what the other fluffernutters in your league are doing? Are they going to snatch up your John Lackey as soon as you drop him? Then maybe you shouldn’t drop him. You need to suck every point out of your standings. Anyway, here’s some more fantasy baseball players to buy and sell:

BUY

Ryan Shealy - He was a prospect in the Rockies organization. Stuck behind Helton (<–’Member him? Nah, me neither.) then he finally saw the Light of Day (<–top five Michael J. Fox drama. Easily. Check out the mullet.) in Kansas City… Wait, with all of these parentheticals I don’t even know what I’m saying. Oh, yeah, Shealy! Might stay hot for the last week of the season. You care if you win with Conor Jackson or Ryan Shealy? Didn’t think so.

Taylor Teagarden - A catching Kevin Maas or Mike Piazza’s catcher? The Legend of Taylor Teagarden grows. He’s haunted!

Pablo Sandoval - I can’t tout Chubb Rock any more than I have. He’s not heavy, he’s my catcher.

Chris Iannetta - Hopefully, the Rox will move Torrealba in the offseason and give the the kid the full-time gizz-ig.

Mark Teahen - Good month for guy’s whose last names start with Tea-.

Scott Lewis - You know those lookout machines at tourist attractions that you have to put money in to see through? A company that manufactures them should have the same motto as Scott Lewis, “Worth a look.” (BTW, that was the longest setup ever.)

Sean Gallagher - Gets the Mariners next, which brings me to this…

Any Pitcher Facing the Mariners, Nots, Padres, Pirates - This list of pitchers will get longer next week because as teams are eliminated or clinch they might sit their vets. For instance, the Sawx don’t seem that threatening when everyone’s out the lineup.

Hank Blalock - Actually, I have this schmohawk on a few teams. Yuck, I know. But when you’re (bla)locked in, you do what you do.

Aaron Cunningham - Nice combination of power and speed. So far in his audition with the big league club, he’s received rave reviews for his spot-on portrayal of a big leaguer. Only thing that worries me is his friend, Potsie.

Asdrubal Cabrera - If I push The Dribble any more, people will call me for a travel.

Eugenio Velez - Razzball and its constituents told you to pick up this guy in March! Sure, it took him six months to get hot, but we were writing that post for our dyslexic readers that are just now reading March’s posts. Dur.

SELL

John Lackey/Josh Beckett/Scott Kazmir/Ervin Santana/Carlos Zambrano/Ted Lilly/Ryan Dempster - Are you seeing a pattern? You can add Johan, Hamels, Sabathia, Sheets, etc to this list if their team clinches.

Jeff Francis - Shut. Down.

B.J. Upton - Turning down a BJ? I know! Eh, the Rays are in the playoffs and they need Upton for that. He’s probably going to be babied this last week.

Yunel Escobar - I can’t imagine he’s on any non-keeper teams, but if he is. Well, you’re not paying attention anyway.

Justin Duchscherer - He was returning this weekend suppose. (BTW, the “dly” on supposedly seems completely unnecessary and I’m done with it. ) But he got shutdown, as I mentioned this morning.

Rickie Weeks - I mentioned this morning Weeks is dead to Sveum.

Manny Parra - Get out of my streamers and get into my bullpen car!

Did Longoria outproduce Alex Gordon? Yeppers. Ryan Braun? Nopers. Somewhere in the middle’s not a bad place to be, ask Malcolm and Monie Love. Three home runs last night gave Longoria 25 on the year in only 111 games. What’s really nice to see is he hit these three after sustaining a broken wrist. He should be safe for the last week-plus of the season, but I have to think the Rays are going to rest him a bit during next week’s games because the franchise’s first playoff series means a bit more. So keep that in mind going forward. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Erik Bedard - Has a torn labrum and it could mean… Well, it could mean nothing for Bedard for a while, if ever again. The Mariners lost Adam Jones, George Sherrill and three prospects for Nadir Bupkus. “Bad trades are a part of baseball; I mean who can forget Milt Pappas for Frank Robinson for gosh sakes.”

Shaun Marcum - Marcum down for done.

Cameron Maybin - 4-for-4 yesterday. Right now, I’m not that excited for this year, but he might get a legit shot next year.

Ben Sheets - In a followup to his sore arm, the GM said today, “He’s got pain, and he sometimes can pitch with it, and he sometimes can’t.” Ringing endorsement! I went over why dropping Sheets was probably the way to go.

Troy Percival - Pitched for the first time in a week, throwing a scoreless eighth, only to watch Wheeler blow the save. Percival will now be back in the closer’s role as long as he stays healthy.

Chris Perez - More than likely not in the closer’s role anymore as he tried to give away last night’s game. Jason Motte figures to see any saves in the last week plus.

Rickie Weeks - First at-bat in 5 days. Every time Ned Yost started Weeks you know Sveum was cringing, muttering that if he were manager he would never start Weeks.

Zach Greinke - 8 IP, 2 hits. I think at this point I’ve been Greinke’d.

Justin Duchscherer - From the files of, “Dur.” His bullpen session was cut short because of pain. Surprise, surprise. He’s done for the year.

Tim Lincecum - Bit of a scary moment for Lincecum in yesterday’s game. The 118 pitches? Nah, he usually does that by the seventh. The scary moment came in the second when Lincecum tried to bunt a Randy Johnson fastball and it smashed his fingers into the bat. He came back with taped fingers and continued on like nothing happened. Later on, Lincecum won a between-innings chili cook-off, taught some youngsters how to use radiometric dating to disapprove The DaVinci Code and then saved Dunn out in the kiddie pool. Wear floaties, big man!

Justin Duchscherer is headed to the DL with a bad hip. (That’s the exact medical term. I checked WebMD.) How about them Athletics?! Talk about an ironic team name. Bobby Crosby, Street, Chavez, formerly Harden, etc. How about un-Athletic? What, too obvious? Whateves. You add the clever for once. Duchscherer might come back in two weeks. There’s only five weeks left! You’re going to wait around for this schmohawk? Cut bait as they say on the Country Music Channel or The Nashville Network or whatever channel Jeff Foxworthy’s hosting a show on. Oh, wait, that’s Fox. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Derek Lowe - 6 1/3 innings, 1 ER. I’m on him for home matchups like Alyssa Milano’s on Valtrex.

James Loney - HR yesterday. Headed to Philly for a weekend series. Stock up on your Dodgers’ bats. Loney’s probably one that is out there.

Greg Smith - 6 IP, 0 ER. Against the Mariners. It’s like being able to hit the ocean with a golf ball from a pier.

Yunel Escobar - HR yesterday. If he gets to ten home runs and five steals with a .290 average, you’re going to look at him next March and think about drafting him. Remember the five months of yawnstipation. Remember.

Brandon Webb/Cliff Lee - 19th and 18th wins respectively. Now disrespectfully, Cliff Lee?! Holy heffin’ hey, are you serious? He’s 29 and his K/BB ratio tripled this year.  What the eff? Imagine if the Indians were good and hadn’t been Pronk’d! Cliff Lee would be looking at a 40 win season and free blow from Drew Carey for life.

Hideki Matsui - First home run since returning three games ago. This is a win for Godzilla, anime and porn.

Joey Votto/Jay Bruce - Both homered yesterday. They should totally watch Beaches together, because Votto’s totally Barbara Hersey and Jay Bruce is Bette Midler. While Jay Bruce is rocking out on Broadway in a musical about Otto Titsling, Votto’s living for some detached jerk and biding his time until he has a baby. But things only appear wonderful for Bruce. His spouse is two-timing on him, he can’t have a kid and he’s butt freakin’ ugly. Wait, I was all ready for a good cry when I realized this was supposed to have something to do with Votto, Bruce and fantasy baseball? Oh, that’s right! Votto’s just as good as Bruce, but he’s getting cold there in Bruce’s shadow.