Fantasy Baseball Advice

After ten or so years, Rudy and I managed to agree on a trade. Melky Cabrera for Zach Greinke in a ten team mixed league. A fair enough trade in my estimation, but I still waited a day before pulling the trigger. Why? First some backstory (in case you weren’t sufficiently bored at work reading about a trade of Melky and Greinke), Rudy and I are best of friends, and, as any good friends should be, we’re hated fantasy baseball rivals. I’d rather lose a girlfriend to Tom Arnold than lose a league to Rudy. Once we step inside the imaginary world of fantasy baseball, I like him about as much as The Iron Sheik likes B. Brian Blair. (As with all Iron Sheik links, that is NSFW.)

Are all my leaguemates hated rivals? Nah, some are innocuous. The guy in last place who is starting Howie Kendrick for two weeks while he’s on the DL is no competition — innocuous. Some are annoying. The guy in first who streams starts and keeps coming up aces — annoying. Some are harmful. The guy in first that trades Kotchman for Prince Fielder — harmful. But to be a hated rival, you have to be a worthy competitor who is close enough to you that you can hear about how you screwed up a trade for the rest of your life. So I abstained from trades with Rudy for… well, ever.

So why trade now? Needs and it’s a trade that I don’t think could conceivably bite me in the ass too bad. I mean, I’m only giving up Melky. I like him this year, but I don’t see him suddenly becoming a top twenty offensive force. I think he could be a cheap 15/15/.285 player. On my team, Bill Hall will fill in for Melky, so it’s a downgrade, but not terrible. Most importantly, I needed starters. Right now I’m starting Jair Jurrjens with my last pitching spot. Now before Jair’s minions come out of the webwork, I obviously like Jurrjens, as well. But he’s risky moving forward in a ten team league. With the addition of Greinke, I’m not going to drop Jair, but I think I might have to at some point because he’s unproven at this level. Do I think Zach Grienke is headed for 20 wins and a nothing ERA? Nah, probably not. I’m just hoping he doesn’t take the mound in his next start wearing a rainbow wig, holding a sandwich board that has a psalm written on it in silver highlighter. If he does, I’m sure I’ll hear about it for the rest of my life.

RUDY’S TAKE

This was the equivalent of the Yankees trading with the Sawx. I don’t even like the thought of us trading – it’s like the episodes of Tom & Jerry when they were friends. But when I got offered M. Cabrera for a Royals pitcher, how could I say no? Oh, it’s Melky not Miguel….goddamnit. Larry King is right on about Cabreras…

Even with Melky, this trade works. My pitching staff in this league is STACKED. I had 12 undroppable pitchers – Peavy, Harang, Vazquez, Wainwright, Cueto, Greinke, Rivera, F-Cordero, Capps, Street, B-Wilson, Betancourt – meaning I had no bench slots for hitters. I lucked out over the first couple weeks as Kelly Johnson and Matt Kemp both had great days at times I may have benched them.

I figured Greinke and Cueto are lowest men on the totem pole and that the Zach Attack had more trade value. A swap for Johnny Damon with another leaguemate was declined. I figured Melky was better than nothing – I already got him on two expert league teams anyway. He can start for me until Bourn gets back on track and then I’ll probably rotate him in and out. My pitching staff doesn’t need Greinke – the only category I don’t have a 10 in is Wins which is his worst category anyway (after Saves of course).

Despite the unclean feeling that comes with trading w/ my bitter rival Grey, I think this is a win-win trade even if Greinke goes bat shit again….

Wow, that’s an exciting title, huh? I’m sure it will be a big seller for Google searches. Right after the search bukkake + carved pumpkin faces. Whatever, it’s boring to talk about fourth starters for your fantasy baseball team, right? What do Oliver Perez, Randy Johnson, Aaron Harang and some other schmohawk who didn’t pitch well yesterday have in common? They didn’t pitch well. Jair Jurrjens and Shawn Hill did. I’ve touted Jurrjens and Hill in the past on this site. Search on the left if you don’t believe me (it hurts that you don’t believe me, but I’ll get over it). I’m not even sure how to spell Jair Jurrjens’s name half the time, but he’s on a lot of my teams. Why? They’re both cheaper than dog balls to acquire and will put up decent numbers. Jurrjens gets the Padres next time and Hill gets the Astros and Cassel. If you need to Mapquest your way to your waiver wire, do it. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Shane Victorino – The Flying Hawaiian is now the The Benched Fourth Phillie Outfielder™. Heffin’ hey, take Jenkins out of the lineup! Werth has looked the part of starter thus far, but Jenkins? Can I have “Has-Been Players” for one hundred? He is to Milwaukee what Luis Gonzalez is to Arizona. Who is Geoff Jenkins, Alex? Anyway, Victorino’s got too much to offer to be a bench player, he’ll be back in there. Werth’s a six hole hitter (which Jenkins is too) and Victorino’s a one or a two. It’ll all work itself out. Say Victorino doesn’t start for two weeks then he gets what? Four and a half more months to play. He can still get to 15/40. He only played in 131 games last year and he got 12/37. Patience is key.

Chase Utley – I misspoke when I said Chipper’s going to be the Player of the Month. I hope Phillies fans don’t throw any batteries at me now.

Kevin Kouzmanoff – Looks like he just needed some razzing to get going. Actually, he hit the home run off Jamie Moyer, who I believe is a grandpappy, so we probably shouldn’t start giving ourselves a reacharound just yet.

Jon Herrera – The new Rockies 2nd basemen as Barmes takes over for Tulowitzki. Herrera’s minors numbers look, well, minor. By ‘minor,’ I mean don’t even bother picking him up.

Jonthan Sanchez – I like him, don’t get me wrong, but his K/BB ratio is not good. He’s liable to have some tough starts ahead.

Austin Kearns – Some how he ropes me every year. I will never tout him again. Please remind me if I ever forget this. Besides never performing well something else that bothers the popcorn out of me — he never seems to care. I officially hate Austin Kearns. Somebody should start austinkearnssucks.com. I have my hands full.

Conor Jackson – Another home run; he can get to 20.

Nick Blackburn – Twins always seem to farm usable pitchers, some times great ones. Blackburn seems usable, not great.

Carlos Quentin – Seven home runs and counting. How about you give me your login and I pick up Quentin for you?

Nick Johnson – Okay, this is uncanny. Nick Johnson after a 3-for-3 game — Nick Johnson after an 0-for-4 game.

Mark Grant – Who? The retired pitcher/Padres announcer. Why? Cuz he’s got a stalker.

Felipe Lopez – Belliard hasn’t had an official at-bat since April 20th.

Travis Hafner – Hafnot wasn’t even starting against Washburn. The same Washburn who Hafnot has lifetime’s numbers of .400/3/7 in 20 at-bats.

Franklin Gutierrez – The Big FraGu is 9 for 20 on the homestand.

Russell Martin – Home run, but more importantly getting rest from catching by playing third base. He probably won’t get position eligibility at third in most leagues and it doesn’t really matter. You want him at catcher anyway.

Micah Ownings – He hit a pinch hit home run! But I didn’t see because they like everything big in Texas, including commercials.

Randy Johnson – Just a bumpy beginning in what was an otherwise decent start.

Xavier Nady – I told you in the first three days of the season to just pick him up. Nady finished April with 26 RBIs while batting .337. I’d say unload him for someone more trustworthy, but I can’t imagine anyone’s actually buying into this.

Alexis Rios – As member of Da Razzpound pointed out yesterday, he’s been leading off, which would hurt his RBIs. But it’s not going to stay that way. He’s the Jays best hitter. You don’t bat your best hitter leadoff then Rolen third. I mean, this isn’t the Red Sox or Yanks lineup we’re talking about, the Jay aren’t that deep to be batting Rios leadoff. Again, patience.

Dustin McGowan – He’s not out of the woods yet, but getting into the eighth with only one walk is a great thing, know why? Cause now he has some value for you to trade him.

Daisuke Matsuzaka – Another guy that had a good start, that I’m not going to get behind. (Frankly, I have a hard time getting behind any American League pitchers, especially ones in the AL East. But I digress.) You can trade him and still be a Son of Sam Horn, they don’t check your teams for Sawx, do they?

Josh Hamilton – Weird how smack and crack are used for both the sound the bat makes when hitting the ball and for drugs.

Brian Bannister – He got smoked by Josh Hamilton.

Derrick Turnbow – Six runs in two-thirds of inning is the kind of middle reliever hit that really hurts. It was a bad situation with the game out of hand. He shouldn’t been in there, and hopefully you didn’t have him in there.

Wladimir Balentien – Rudy just picked him up in one league. Hey, ya’ll, Rudy knows what he’s doing. At the age of 24 in Triple A, Balentien’s numbers were 77/24/84/.291/15. Look at those numbers again. You’re welcome.

Adam Lind – This is who I added in a deep league. Numbers, please… .378 career OBP in almost 1400 at-bats minor league at-bats. Last year he received almost 300 at-bats from the Jays and hit 11 home runs with a putrid OBP. The fact that the Jays called him up already and have been starting him tells me they are committed. He’s, as they say, a flier. I kinda like Balentien better, but I thought I’d spread the Razzball love.

Casey Kotchman – His average isn’t as much a fluke as you might think. He still won’t hit 30 home runs.

Jeff Clement – Eligibility count: 1 game at catcher.

Dioner Navarro – He got 2 RBIs; Salty didn’t play.

Chad Billingsley – I liked him coming into the season. Still do. A pitcher with his stuff, in his division, in his park, it’s almost not fair.

John Smoltz – He says he will come back as a reliever at least initially. I say, he’s not going back to starting. This also takes the shine off of Acosta and Rafael Soriano. Smoltz will get the bulk of the saves.

Max Scherzer – In his relief appearance, Jobacum left without a stain. Now he’s getting the start over Edgar Gonzalez on Monday for his first major league start. Too bad he’s not on the Rangers, then there could’ve been a battery of Jobacum-Salty. For next Monday’s start, I guess we’ll have to settle for Jobacum discharging the Phillies.

These are the players you want to drop, add or simply hold onto for your fantasy baseball roster.

DROPS

Every Baltimore Oriole not named Nick Markakis, Ramon Hernandez or Brian Roberts – This team looks atrocious. Millar’s best is behind him, and he was never that good, shortstop is a black hole, Mora is mediocre and will get injured soon, forget Adam Jones for now, I don’t even like Luke Scott anymore as a deep sleeper.

Ronny Paulino – Doumit looks to be getting the starts against righties. Overall, there’s mostly righties. Look elsewhere.

ADDS

Mark Lowe – Second in line (presumably) Sean Green (not the Jew that retired) then Eric O’Flaherty. Then again, Miguel Batista got the save the other night, so, ya know, don’t invest too heavily.

Jair Jurrjens – He’s still very raw, but I liked what I’ve seen so far. I would take a flier, if there’s room.

Brian Bannister – The other day, when asked about Bannister, I said he was like last year’s Maddux. I stand by that. There is a place for that on certain teams.

Ryan Church – The Mets are outfield poor. In deep leagues, you have to take a look because of the lineup he’s in.

Angel Pagan – Speaking of the Mets, and speaking of deep leagues, NL-onlyers take a look. He’ll be in left until Alou returns.

Joey Gathright – Bourn, Carlos Gomez have to make room — more cheap steals.

Blake DeWitt – In very deep leagues, keep it in the back of your mind that DeWitt was considered the best hitter in the 2004 draft.

Franklin Gutierrez, Billy Butler, Andre Ethier, Melky Cabrera, Nate McLouth, Lastings Milledge – There’s been a lot of discussion on this site about these six fifth outfielders. So with Rudy Gamble’s permission, I’m just going to reprint what he had to say in the comments of this post.

Billy Butler – Best average and RBI of the bunch. Got valuable experience last year. And 1B potential. Only downside vs. the rest is no speed.

Nate McLouth – Best SB and Run potential of the bunch. Enough pop for 15 HR. Enough speed for 30 SB. AVG won’t be great.

Lastings Milledge – Most upside of the group but I’m just not sold on any part of his game. Not a good base stealer. No minor league history of plus power.

Melky Cabrera – By no means a great player but he’s young, has 2 years experience, playing for a running manager in a great lineup, and w/ more job security than the guys below him on this list. I think he ends up 75/15/75/15 with a respectably .280 average.

Franklin Gutierrez – No plus power or speed in his minor league history. I think he may fall short of Melky in all 5 categories. Might have playing time cut into. Grey’s note: I don’t see his playing time cut and I like FraGu’s (<—forced nickname!) promise. I see 70/20/80/.270/20. And maybe someone in the Indians’ brass has been reading Razzball, because Gutierrez moved up to the sixth spot the last two days. Just sayin’.

Andre Ethier – His stats for the past two years are just bleh. 15 HR power and no speed. Probably second to Butler on projected AVG. And there’s no doubt Pierre reclaims his job if Ethier slumps.

Scott Hairston – That’s right, I’m adding another name into the six fifth-outfielder-mix. Hairston never got a fair shake in the desert, but he’s got good pop.

Jose Lopez – If you have an erection for longer than four hours after you pick up Lopez, you should go see a doctor. But he’s hitting number two on the Mariners. So, well, there’s that. Honestly, he’s young and he’s started off hot.

HOLDS

Pedro Martinez – He’s going on the DL for 4-6 weeks. I think it’s probably going to end up closer to 6 weeks because of his age. Then he’ll have to rehab. I could see dropping him, if you have someone already filling your DL slot, but I’m going to hold onto Pedro for now.

Juan Pierre – You drafted him for steals. He’s still going to end up with thirty to forty. The Pierre Situation with Ethier hasn’t been decided yet. You need to hold pat. There’s still 25 more weeks in the season. Chill, people.

Tom Gordon – I hate him with great fervor, but we need to see Lidge come back and be healthy before he moves to a “Drop.”

Martin Prado is about to become Kelly Johnson’s platoon-mate. I saw it happen to Johnson last year with Yunel grabbing at-bats and I watched Matt Diaz never get a shot against righties. This is how Bobby Cox do. Bitch and moan all you want that Johnson just has a knee injury. He’s going to sit against the majority of lefties. I can feel it coming. Even though I ranked Johnson high and liked him coming into this season, I’m glad I didn’t reach into the sixth round for him, like I saw some ‘perts do. Anyway, this is what I saw last night.

Jair Jurrjens cruised through five. Ran into some trouble and faced one too many batters. He’s looking like a decent deep league pickup. But let’s not give each other a reach around just yet, he was facing the Pirates.

Speaking of pitchers who dominated weak offenses, Oliver Perez looked like a number one. Perez looked splendiferous. (BTW, no one says or writes splendiferous — gay or straight/male or female. Is there a more useless word in the English language?)

Kendrick scored on wild pitch. How about that Twins and Angels offense? Carlos Gomez tried to bunt five times. All five went foul. Yeah, he could steal fifty. But he needs to get on base.

Was nice to see Matt Diaz hit a home run, but I’d like to see him do it against a righty. Caveat: Cox.

Corey Patterson is not going anywhere. He’s going to be a 15/35/.260 at the end of the year with 500+ at-bats.

Sticking with the Corey theme, Corey Hart stole two bases. I hope he goes for forty.

Jayson Nix hasn’t been done much to impress me thus far. He’s batting eighth and looks lost when he’s at-bat.

Andrew Miller will be good one day. Though I don’t think it’s going to be this year.

Can you guess the pitcher? 6 INN, 6 HA, 3 BBI, 3 K, 3 ER, 4.500 ERA, 1.500 WHIP — I know, you’re thinking Ian Snell pitched two days ago. It’s Gorz, and, I swear, him and Snell have the same line every start.

Hamels looked great, but…. Wait for it… Here it comes… Redding outpitched him.

Krispie Young walked three times. That’s a good sign. But the pitches weren’t close.

Mark Reynolds struckout two more times. He’s at 5 for the year. He’ll get to 200.

Brandon Lyon will be replaced sooner rather than later. Make sure you have Tony Pena.