Take a chance on Lance! He’s gonna do his very best and it ain’t no lie. If you put him to the test, if you let him try. Take a chance on Lance! All Lance McCullers needed was to get a blister and some rest to get back to his 2015 self. In his last start against the Mariners he threw 7 innings of 1 run ball, giving up 5 hits and 1 BB, while racking up 10 K. Mariners are no slouch against RHP either. They have a 114 wRC+ and a 19.6% K%. This time out, Lance draws the Athletics, who only have a 84 wRC+ and a slightly lower K% at 18.1%. McCullers best pitch this season has been his curveball, which he throws 47% of the time and generates 23% whiffs. The only batters he needs to watch out for are Valencia and Davis. Valencia has been the best Athletics hitter vs RHP, and Davis has hit curveballs well throughout his career. Lance has been struggling with walks this season, but has been striking out batters to help limit the damage. He is tied for second highest K-rate for today’s slate at 28.3% with Danny Salazar, behind Scherzer at 32.8%. More good news for those willing to take the chance, Lance has been much better pitching at Minute Maid Park. There, he has a career 1.97 ERA and a .612 OPS against. At $9,700 he won’t break the bank, and you should be able to squeeze in an extra bat. All Abba and I ask is to take a chance on Lance. And with that, here are the rest of my Saturday DFS picks.

New to DraftKings? Well reserve your spot in the 25 Team Razzball Exclusive League set to run Monday July 11th to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! Wanna know what the best part is about signing up with us? The free subscription for the rest of the season to our DFSBot, that’s what! For details on the how to, please visit our Razzball Subscriptions page.

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July 3rd often goes unforgotten. Proper preparation is key to a successful event. You simply can’t just watch baseball to be successful in DFS. Since you all have busy days, let me do the research for you. Before heading out to buy beer and fireworks, why not throw in a couple line ups and wake up with extra money on July 4th? You have to pay for all that stuff somehow. Today we have four aces pitching today all priced over 11K. Two are facing off against each other, one is facing the Jays in Rogers Centre, and one gets the pitch against the Twins. That pitcher who gets the twins is a good American boy Cole Hamels. Like the weather, Hamels’ arm has continuously heated up throughout the season. His fastball averaged 94 mph on the radar gun in June. The increased velocity may be a reason for the success he has had in his last 4 starts, where he allowed only 2 runs over 27.2 innings of work. More importantly, he averaged 27.6 fantasy points in that span. If he can maintain his increase in velocity he should find more success against the Twinkies. When facing fastballs from LHP over 94 mph, the Twins are only batting .175. Hamels has nearly a strike out per inning, which he should be able to maintain as the Twins have a 24.3 K% vs LHP. They have not handled LHP very well, as they have a 91 wRC+ and an 8.1% BB%. Sano is back off the DL, so if he gets the start that should be at least 3 strikeouts for Hamels on the day. Let me do the research for you so you have more time to prep for July 4th. Here are the rest of DFS picks for July 3…

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well reserve your spot in the 25 Team Razzball Exclusive League set to run Monday July 4th to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. Wanna know what the best part is about signing up with us? The free subscription for the rest of the season to our DFSBot, that’s what! For details on the how to, please visit our Razzball Subscriptions page.

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Evidently, Corey Kluber made some sort of promise to the city of Cleveland too, and not just to Kl-Uber Drew Carey home any time he sees him drunk-wandering in downtown Cleveland.  Yesterday, Kluber went 9 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 9 Ks, lowering his ERA at 3.59.  So, I’m going to get completely unscientific, then scientific, then mix the two, Grey says sounding like Don Herbert. (If you knew who Don Herbert was, you are old and a nerd.)  Unscientifically, Kluber will have an ERA around 3.60 this year.  He’ll throw a gem, get the ERA down to 3.40, then throw a stinker and the ERA will rise.  It will go on like this all year, because that’s what he’s done so far.  Then he will figure out if he drops his arm angle a little, due to the earth being flat, it will add more spin and he’ll have an ERA under zero in September.  Again, that was unscientific.  Scientifically, his peripherals looks as good as any previous year.  His velocity is a notch off previous seasons, but his 9 K-rate, 1.9 BB/9 and 3.27 xFIP are excellent.  So, he should be better than he has been, and could end up with a 3.20 ERA with 250 Ks.  Now, to mix the two methods, Kluber will match his 3.27 xFIP, and on off days, picket Phil Collins’ house with Carl Everett, with a sign reading, “The Book of Genesis Doesn’t Have Liner Notes.”  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

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On behalf of everybody at Razzball, Happy Fathers Day to all of the fathers out there!  We’re closing in on the halfway point of the season and the Large Father himself, David Ortiz, comes in at #12 overall in our Player Rater.  Would I be looking to sell high?  The correct answer is it probably doesn’t matter.  Odds are you won’t be able to because he’s a DH only who is 40 years old.  The good news is that you more than likely got him pretty late in your draft and he’s giving you incredible value.  While I don’t expect him to hit 40 bombs, he should still contribute plenty down the stretch so feel free to ride him out on his retirement tour.  Let’s take a look at everything that has been posted on Razzball over the last week:

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Megadeth is one of the greatest heavy metal bands of all time. The group, which was formed and fronted by lead vocalist/guitarist (and Metallica castoff) Dave Mustaine, quickly made it’s mark on the thrash metal scene in the mid-80s and became one of the most influential bands of the genre. What does this have to do with this week’s most added player, Texas Rangers infielder Jurickson Profar (51.6% owned; +28.4% over the last seven days)? I’m certainly not implying that Profar is into, uh, “pharmaceuticals” like Mustaine was in those days. He either wouldn’t be able to walk onto the field or would quickly pack thirty pounds of muscle onto his frame if that were the case, depending on the substance in question. This is more about their respective career arcs. Megadeth’s third studio album, the conveniently titled So Far, So Good… So What!, was a solid offering. Low budget, raw, and not widely considered to be among their best work, but it was, and is, a bit of an underrated gem. It’s kind of where Profar is at this stage of his career. Young, raw, talented. A player on the rise. The 23-year-old has long been considered one of the top prospects in the game, but injuries and a crowded Texas infield (Odor, Andrus, Beltre) pushed him to the back burner entering this season. However, Odor’s suspension following his recent Floyd Mayweather impression against the Blue Jays opened the door for some unexpected playing time for Profar, and he’s taken advantage of his opportunity. Through 73 plate appearances since May 27th, Profar has produced 13 runs, 2 homers, 4 RBI, and a .343/.370/.514 slash line. However, as good as he’s looked thus far, his batted ball profile (22.2 IFFB%, 25.9% Soft%) suggests that his current .393 BABIP is likely to drop significantly in the coming weeks. That would make him more of a .275ish hitter than a .300+ one. His power is still developing, and when factoring in his lack of steals (2 career MLB steals; 5 steals over the last two seasons across all levels) and mediocre on-base skills (4.1% BB%), the breakout might have to wait. Megadeth reached their peak with their fourth studio album (the brilliant Rust In Peace), and I believe that Profar is likely a year or two away from reaching his peak as well. In other words, he should be able to help your team in it’s darkest hour, but he’s not quite ready to set the world afire just yet.

Here are a couple of other interesting adds/drops in fantasy baseball over the past week:

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Splits are a real thing in baseball. Everyone knows that. There are players that get paid to strictly get out left-handed hitters. There are right-handed hitters that blast lefties (I’m looking at you Ryan Raburn), while looking like little leaguers against RHP. On Tuesday night, one name keeps popping up. He’s done quite well this year against righties and lefties, but he’s always been known more for his ability to smash southpaws. Danny Valencia, come on down! Over 155 at-bats, Valencia has 10 home runs; five of those homers have come against lefties. When a lefty is on the mound, Valencia is 16-for-40 (.400) this season. Martin Perez is a serviceable pitcher, but Valencia should make quick work of him on Tuesday night. At $4,000, he’ll be a staple in many of my lineups.

New to DraftKings? Well reserve your spot in the 25 Team Razzball Exclusive League set to run Monday June 20th to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

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I’ll admit Wei-Yin and Win might be a bit of a stretch, but I’ve got winning on my mind and all of us grinders just want to “win, win, win, no matter what.” Wei-Yin Chen at $8,000 gets his shot at the Padres tonight and I’d say “Just Win Baby”, but he better do a lot more than that considering the matchup. Coming into the year, Chen looked like he was primed to have a big season as he moved away from Camden Homerun Yards and into the NL’s largest park. Unfortunately Chen hasn’t delivered on that preseason hype, but he was responsible for bruising J-Fer’s ego by getting the Opening Day nod. Outside of his 12 K performance against the Brewers last month, he’s been mediocre at best, topping out at 5 K’s vs Pit and Atl. I love exploiting teams coming off that Rockie Mountain High and at the discounted price tag of 8K vs an already bad Padres offense, I’ll take him in both cash and tourney play for tonight. I’m torn between pairing Chen with Max Scherzer vs the Cubs at $12,200 or Zack Greinke at $11,200 vs the Dodgers. I haven’t rostered Greinke all year, especially at home, but he seems like he’s finally settled into the terrible AZ jerseys nabbing 5 W’s in his last 5 starts with 29 K’s and a 1.89 ERA. Mad Max looks like he’s back on track too, but I think Greinke will be under owned due to his struggles at home, so I’m rolling with the Zack Attack. I’d by lying if I said I loved the Greinke matchup, but he’s facing his former team, so I anticipate a huge effort out of him tonight.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well reserve your spot in the 25 Team Razzball Exclusive League set to run today to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

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Ten weeks of the baseball season are in the books.  Ten weeks!  The craziness at the top of our Player Rater is remarkable being over 2 months into the season.  Xander Bogaerts is 4th, Ian Kinsler is 5th (!), Ian DesmondRobinson Cano and David Ortiz round out the top 10, and Mark TrumboDaniel Murphy and Jonathan Villar are all in the top 20.  Before the season, I would have guessed Bogaerts is the only guy on this list who could get to the top 20 this year but I wouldn’t have bet on it happening.  Does that mean I’d sell high on the rest of them?  Not necessarily.  I’d hold onto Desmond and Villar at this point for what they’re giving at the top of their lineups.  The problem is when you’re in a league with smart players like RCLs, you can’t sell high on these guys so just hold them and hope for the best; they’re still be getting predraft value with inevitable regression.  But in other leagues with inexperienced people?  Try to sell high on these guys before the bottom falls out.  Here’s a recap of everything that’s been posted on Razzball over the last week:

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Wikipedia says groupthink is, “A psychological phenomenon that occurs within a group of people in which the desire for harmony or conformity in the group results in an irrational or dysfunctional decision-making outcome.  Group members try to minimize conflict and reach a consensus decision without critical evaluation of alternative viewpoints by actively suppressing dissenting viewpoints, and by isolating themselves from outside influences.  Now spend forty minutes randomly popping around the internet until you somehow end up on an exercise video of Morgan Fairchild.”  I’m sure someone has already done this, but you know how there’s Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon?  Why isn’t there an internet six degrees to tepid porn?  No matter where you are, you are six clicks from tepid porn.  Any hoo!  I was thinking about groupthink because of the comments on this site, but it’s more like groupspeak.  Just listen to what the groupspeak say.  Sometimes you get comments that can be helpful, even if they’re not intentionally trying to be helpful.  If you see ten to twenty random comments asking about Danny Duffy, a pattern emerges.  A beautiful snowflake pattern because every comment is different unless it’s a catcher question.  With that many people asking about Duffy, there might be something there.  So, I looked at his stats, and, J. Lo and behold, his peripherals are gorge.  In 43 IP, he has a 10.3 K/9, 1.5 BB/9 and a 3.52 xFIP.  He’s there with a 95.7 MPH fastball and a change that is buckling hitters.  These are not waiver wire pitcher peripherals.  These are ace pitcher numbers.  I’d go pick him up right now…Which should only take you three clicks, so you have three more clicks to find Morgan Fairchild doing crunches.  Enjoy (or be careful)!  Anyway, here’s some more players to Buy or Sell this week in fantasy baseball:

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Pricing is absolutely wild at two positions on Tuesday night: First Base and Outfield. There are nine outfielders priced at $5,000 or above, while first base has four players in the $5K club. Paul Goldschmidt is the $5,000-club headliner on Tuesday night given his home matchup against the atrocious Matt Moore. I’ve always liked Matt Moore, but my affection for him at this point is that of a two-legged dog. He’s still my buddy, but he’s basically useless. If you look at Moore’s game log over his last 10 starts, you may start vomiting uncontrollably. To say this guy is worthless would be an understatement. It’s been a rough start for Goldschmidt, but the weather is getting warmer and I truly believe he’ll still finish the season batting over .300–he’s at .261 right now. So, pick on Matt Moore on Tuesday night. It’s nothing personal, we all still like you Matt. It’s just business.

New to DraftKings? Well reserve your spot in the 25 Team Razzball Exclusive League set to run Monday June 13th to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Please, blog, may I have some more?