Fantasy Baseball Advice

Boston Red Sox 2009 Minor League Review
Overall farm rankings via Baseball America (2009)
2009 (13) | 2008 (2) | 2007 (9) | 2006 (8) | 2005 (21) | 2004 (23)

Record of Major and Minor League Teams
MLB: [95 – 57] AL East
AAA: [61 – 82] International League
AA: [67 – 74] Eastern League
A+: [67 – 72] Carolina League
A: [73 – 65] South Atlantic League
A(ss): [45 – 30] New York – Pennsylvania League
R: [26 – 27] Gulf League

The Run Down
The junior Evil Empire has no reason to complain this off-season. Spending millions replacing Jason Bay (with Mike Cameron), adding Lackey to sure up their rotation, buying a “better” shortstop (who will regress and make BoSox fans upset) and taking the best defensive third baseman (Adrian Beltre) off the market, Boston has taken its focus a bit off of their farm system. The graduations of Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Jonathan Papelbon and Jacoby Ellsbury in the past has sapped the top end talent out of their system in 2009. Not to mention, the acquisition of Victor Martinez (trading Hagadon, Masterson, and Bryan Price to Cleveland) further emptied some of their depth. Furthermore, the current top prospect prospect (Casey Kelly or Ryan Westmoreland) going into 2010 is still a season or more away from helping in the majors. However, if Keith Law is to be believed, the Red Sox have the second overall farm system in 2010. This is based mainly on Boston having seven top 100 prospects. They have some nice arms with high upside, and some toolsy fielders, but many of those players are young and still need to prove themselves. 2010 will be a season of truth for several prospects in the minors, not to mention if they can keep up with their rival Evil Empire.

Graduating Prospects
#4 – (RHP) Dan Baird

Arizona Fall League Players – Mesa Solar Fox
Pitchers – #6 Casey Kelly; Randor Bierd; #26 Richard Lentz; Chris Province; Dustin Richardson
Hitters – #15 (C) Luis Exposito; Jose Iglesias; #13 Ryan Kalish

Players of Interest for 2010
Hitters
#1 – Lars Anderson | 1B | AA | 21 | .233/.328/.345 | 447 AB | 23 2B | 9 HR | .112 ISO | 114:63 K:BB | .296 BABIP | 54.8 GB% | 13 LD% | 32.2 FB%
Lars struggled more than words can express in 2009. His ground ball, line drive and fly ball rates are close to his career rates (54.2 GB%, 15.9 LD% | 29.5 FB% in 1613 AB), but his batting average on balls in play went from a career level of .351 to .296. These numbers would project him to be below average power hitting first baseman. He battled through a hamstring injury in the late summer causing him to miss some playing time at the end of the season. Furthermore, he started the season with a back injury that he played through. Many ‘perts are giving him a mulligan on the 2009 season, but he very well come have met his ceiling, or nearing his ceiling. The mid-summer months were his best, but nothing impressive from a first baseman. He’ll be 22 in 2010 and still has the potential to shine. Don’t be shocked to see him back at Double-A in 2010.

#13 Ryan Kalish | RF | A+/AA | 21 | .279/.364/.457 | 506 AB | 24 2B | 18 HR | .178 ISO | 21/6 SB/CS | 107:68 K:BB | .317 BABIP | 47 GB% | 14.8 LD% | 38.2 FB%
Kalish stayed in High-A long enough to tally 115 at-bats and showing that he needed a promotion. Upon reaching Double-A, the homers started coming (13 in 391 AB). He didn’t hit the ball hard as often as I would like (league average LD% is 18%), the walks are fairly impressive. With the potential to be a 20/20 hitter, Kalish looks like a Grady Sizemore in the making (and he played in CF at Double-A as Josh Reddick was playing RF). Look for him to start the year in Triple-A.

#5 – Josh Reddick | RF | AA | 22 | .277/.352/.520 | 256 AB | 17 2B | 14 HR | .243 ISO | 62:30 K:BB | .310 BABIP | 36.2 GB% | 14.4 LD% | 49.5 FB%
Reddick did have 71 at-bats at Triple-A Pawtucket, but they were utterly terrible as his slash line shows .127/.190/.183. Today, Reddick and Kalish are, and should be, equally ranked. Reddick has the potential for more power, especially with a much higher fly ball rate (49.5% versus 38.2%). If he didn’t struggle this year at Triple-A, it could have been feasible that he started in the big leagues this year. He has a rocket of an arm (41 outfield assists pre-2009) and adequate defense. With J.D. Drew and Mike Cameron aging, the Red Sox have some nice in-house outfield options. He should also be in Triple-A to start the 2010 season.

Pitchers
#2 – Michael Bowden | RHP | AAA | 22 | 6.3 K/9 | 3.3 BB/9 | 126 1/3 IP | 3.13 ERA | 4.18 FIP | 1.21 WHIP | .8 HR/9 | .260 BABIP | 31.1 GB% | 19.5 LD% | 44.6FB%
Scouting the Unknown lays outs Michael Bowden pretty well. My opinions of him haven’t changed since mid-July. Matter-of-fact, looking at his peripheral stats, I like him even less, especially with the terrible ground ball rate. The AL East hitters will feast on Mr. Bowden. With the acquisition of Lackey and a loaded farm system of pitchers will make Bowden return to Triple-A to start the 2010 season. He’ll be there until an injury or a trade.

#7 – Junichi Tazawa | RHP| AA | 23 | 8.1 K/9 | 2.4 BB/9 | 98 IP | 2.57 ERA | 3.44 FIP | 1.08 WHIP | .7 HR/9 | .284 BABIP | 43.7 GB% | 13 LD% | 39.6 FB%
Another Red Sox player that received a Scouting the Unknown last summer, and if you do a quick search within the Razzball website you’ll see several poor Major League outings. He also pitched 11 1/3 innings at Triple-A and performed well. Tazawa is still another full year away from making a major impact at the major league level. Tazawa has the skill set to thrive in the majors.

#28 – Stephen Fife | RHP | A/A+ | 22 | 8.9 K/9 | 1.4 BB/9 | 87 1/3 IP | 3.71 ERA | 3.30 FIP | 1.19 WHIP | .8 HR/9 | .317 BABIP | 55.5 GB% | 14.7 LD% | 25 FB%
This is a bit of a stretch to place him in this section. There are definitely other pitchers the Red Sox could call upon in 2010 if there are bullpen issues. However, Fife generates more ground balls with his low to mid 90’s fastball than the US Government generates debt. With a slurvy slider and an average circle change-up, Fife could quickly rise through the minors if he continues to keep the ball on the ground. With another season under his belt, the Red Sox may try to make him into a starter. If this happens, he could be Aaron Cook, the 2009 Joel Pineiro, or even a Roy Halladay. The most likely outcome would be the Aaron Cook end of the spectrum. Serviceable, but nothing exciting.

Honorable Mentions
These players are in this section because they aren’t as likely to make an impact in 2010 for the Red Sox on the major league level. However, many of these prospects are their top rated prospects.

Hitters
#8 – Ryan Westmoreland | CF | A(ss) | 19 | .296/.401/.484 | 223 AB | 15 2B | 7 HR | .188 ISO | 19/0 SB/CS | 49:38 K:BB | .353 BABIP | 46.9 GB% | 16.9 LD% | 36.3 FB%
Keith Law has him ranked as the Red Sox number two prospect in 2010, and John Sickels has him ranked number one. He has the power to hit 20 to 25, and possibly even 30 homers with 25 to 30 steals in a full season. His plate discipline is stellar, his defense adequate, and the only concern is his injury history. Prior to playing in the minors he had shoulder surgery, thus the reason why he only has 223 at-bats this year. He’ll start in Single-A or possibly even High-A to start the 2010 season. He’ll be talked about more in 2011 and potentially playing in the big leagues in the late summer of 2011. However, a more reasonable expectation would have him playing in the majors in 2012.

#21 – Derrik Gibson | 2B/SS | A(ss) | 19 | 255 AB | 15 2B | 0 HR | .090 ISO | 28/5 SB/CS | 4238 K:BB | .351 BABIP | 60.3 GB% | 14.7 LD% | 24.6 FB%
He plays great defense, control the strike zone really well, but will struggle to hit for much power. Could be Adam Everett with some speed, or Neifi Perez – a slap hitter with little fantasy value save SAGNOF.

Ryan Lavarnway | C | A | 22 | .285/.367/.540 | 506 AB | 36 2B | 21 HR | .255 ISO | 113:50 K:BB | .349 BABIP | 40.2 GB%| 16.4 LD% | 43.1 FB%
I couldn’t find much information about Lavarnway, but my eyes tell me an ISO of .255 is pretty darn impressive. Power doesn’t just appear out of nowhere. Unless your name is Marcus Giles. Lavarnway has a long way to become truly relevant. He’ll need to repeat this type of performance for another two years for him to have a shot at the major league level. Having depth at catcher is extremely important in any organization. High-A should continue to help his numbers, but Double-A will be his first real test.

Pitchers
#6 – Casey Kelly | RHP | A/A+ | 20 | 7.0 K/9 | 1.5 BB/9 | 95 IP | 2.08 ERA | 3.04 FIP | .85 WHIP | .4 HR/9 | .230 BABIP | 51.6 GB% | 10.7 LD% | 33.8 FB%
Aided by an extremely low BABIP (.230), Kelly’s numbers were inflated (technically, that would be the correct word). Once a shortstop with stellar defense and a terrible bat, the Red Sox have committed to making Kelly a pitcher instead of a two-way player. His fastball has late life and reaches 92 mph. His curveball has a sharp bite and a changeup in the works. Projected to be a number two or three starter, Kelly will get tested in 2010 while at Double-A. If he can keep his good ground ball rate, he’ll progress quickly through the mid-minors. However, the numbers should regress a bit due to that extremely low BABIP. It would be scary to think of where he could be right now if he, and Boston, would have made him a pitcher to begin his career.

#11 – Stolmy Pimentel | RHIP | A | 19 | 7.9 K/9 | 2.2 BB/9 | 117 2/3 IP | 3.82 ERA | 3.91 FIP | 1.39 WHIP | .9 HR/9 | .343 BABIP | 39.5 GB% | 15.9 LD% | 37.3 FB%
Considered to have the best changeup in the Boston farm system, Stolmy still has room to improve his average fastball (91 to 92 mph) with very few qualities attached to this offering. There is little life on his fastball. His curve is a show-me pitch with the ability to become an average pitch. He should reach Double-A next year if all goes well.

——-
And no, I didn’t forget about Anthony Rizzo. He’ll get a Scouting the Unknown later in the 2010 season. So commentators do not worry, I won’t forget about him.

Nyjer Morgan was back in the lineup to steal two bases in the first inning, then he left with a broken hand.  Bunt, go feet first and get back in there!  One of my ‘pert teams was pulling too far away in power, so last week I made a trade for steals and saves.  Two categories I usually just play the waiver wire for, but in a 16 team league, it’s slim pickins.  I traded Prince Fielder for Heath Bell and Nyjer Morgan.  Stab me in my eye!  Shove hot coals in my pants!  Hot poker my heart!  I still won’t miss Prince, but Nyjer’s broken hand… Well, I’d like to write on Nyjer’s cast, “Amputate,” as you should be doing with him on your teams.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Tim Hudson – He’ll be returning on Monday to face the Marlins.  The good news, he gets a decent 2 start week next week.  The bad news, he wasn’t exactly lights out in rehab.  The moderate news, he’s worth a flier in 12 team leagues where you need an extra starter.  Just don’t expect him to be anything more than 5 IP, 3 ER.

Ian Kinsler – 2 HRs.  Post-All-Star Break, he’s batting .222 with 8 homers and 6 steals.  It’s going to be hard to justify a 2nd round pick next year for Kinsler with his propensity for bescumbering your fantasy baseball team in the second half of the season.

Chris Davis - HR yesterday.  IDK. W00t? Or BFD U POS?  The preceding was brought to you by your 14-year-old nephew’s texting.

A.J. Burnett – 6 IP, 3 ER, 12 Ks.  12 Ks courtesy of the league’s worst (best?) team for Ks, the Rangers.  After struggling for a few years with injuries, Burnett’s putting together another 30 start season (barring my jinxing right here).  Looking like a solid bet for 175 Ks and a 4.00 ERA next year.  That’s nothing to sneeze at, unless you’re allergic to that sorta thing.

Anibal Sanchez – 3 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 11 baserunners vs. the Mets.  I tried to push people away from Anibal because of his wont to tie his owners to the WHIPping post.

Chris Coghlan – 3-for-4, 2 HRs yesterday.  I can already see people drafting him next year in mixed leagues and then mid-April being bored with him.  It’s the trouble with 12/12 outfielders.  They look okay on draft day, but when they average 2 homers and 2 steals a month they get real yawnstipating.

Dave Bush – 4 2/3 IP, 5 ER.  Bush has a machine head.  But it’s not better than the rest.

Randy Wells – 6 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 9 baserunners.  To make matters worse, the Cubs should start watching his innings.

Carlos Gonzalez – Was in the lineup, but it was too soon back in the yard and he hurt his knife wound.

Adam LaRoche – HR yesterday.  8 homers and batting .385 in August.  Must be after the All-Star Break.

Andy Marte – HR yesterday.  Deep league alert!  Has an eight game hitting streak with two homers and batting over .400.

Andrew McCutchen – HR yesterday.  Now has 9 homers and 15 steals.  Unbelievably, I’m starting to get excited about a Pirate for next year.  Not just any Pirate, but The Dread Pirate.

Garrett Jones – Robot Jones has not only continued to be productive (though admittedly less so than when he was first called up).  He hit his 15th homer yesterday and also has 8 steals.  For under 200 at-bats, that’s tremendous.  I have my doubts about him doing it over a full season.

Junichi Tazawa – 4 IP, 9 ER.  This is the reason I tried to steer people away from Tazawa.  I mean, he has a near 7 ERA on the year and 8 walks to 12 Ks.  Honestly, if it was for the Sons of Sam Horn hype machine, we wouldn’t even be talking about him.  Next year, we’ll reevaluate.

Alex Gonzalez – Has now hit homers in back-to-back games.  He’s a terrible hitter.  Make no mistake.  But hitters hit them in bunches, so he might have some short term value for MI pop.

Jacoby Ellsbury – Left the game with an ankle sprain.  He’s day-to-a-few-days.

Brandon Allen – Hit his first major league homer yesterday.  He’ll be discussed more in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell.  You can’t wait.  No, you can’t!

Matt Holliday – HR yesterday.  If he stays in the NL, it’ll be interesting to see if everyone drafts him next year like the first half of the year was a blip on the radar because of his Oakcation.  The only problem with that, he still only hit 25 homers his last full year in Coors.  Then again, maybe the Mets will get him, then no one will think his power will boon.

Albert Pujols – It’s almost like he owns himself in fantasy baseball.  He goes 0-for-2, but steals a base just to add some value.  This actually wouldn’t be a bad idea.  Part of everyone’s salary goes into a fantasy baseball pool.  The only caveat is they must draft themselves.  Hmm… But maybe that’s gambling.  Nevertheless, I love Pujols.  Well, that sounded wrong.

David Wright was released from the hospital yesterday after tests showed that he was okay from Saturday’s beaning.  When he first went down, the Mets had some serious concerns when Wright couldn’t answer straightforward questions like, “Who’s our starting shortstop?” “Who plays 1st?”  “Who’s the shirtless guy hiding in Jerry Manual’s locker?”  Wright might be out for the season.  Probably be the best thing that could happen to his fantasy owners.  The wait for his power to return can finally end.  Though I wouldn’t drop him in one year leagues until it’s official he’s not returning, unless room on your DL is spare.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Nick Johnson – Left with a hamstring injury.  He seemed to be in good spirits after the game, smiling in locker room pictures.

Nate McLouth – McLousy’s out for a few days after aggravating his hamstring injury and his fantasy owners.

Luke Scott – HR yesterday.  He credits the homer to finally feeling better from the flu.  I guess he had the dreaded 1,700 Hour Flu.

Nick Markakis – Sparkakis!  He now has 14 homers on the year.  He needs ten more to get in my good graces.  Chucking in seven steals along the way wouldn’t hurt either.  Yes, it’s a pipe dream, but it’s my pipe dream.

Erick Aybar – 3-for-6, 2 Runs, 3 RBIs and 2 steals.  Since the All-Star Break, there’s been few MI schmohawks to fill a line like EA – get in the game!

Mike Napoli – The Angels scored 17 runs, Napoli went 1-for-6 with 1 RBI.  Ticker Tease!

Torii Hunter – Returned to the lineup and went 2-for-6 with 2 RBIs, while batting sixth.  Might take him a few days to a week before he’s moved back up the order.  Then again, we’re talking about Scioscia.

Chone Figgins – 4-for-7, 3 Runs, 3 RBIs and a steal.  Who is this Angels offense?  The 1985 Cardinals?

Carlos Gonzalez – 2 HRs yesterday.  How about you give me your password and I’ll pick him up?

Chris Coghlan – 5-for-10 in the doubleheader with a HR yesterday.  Yesterday was a good day for Friday’s Buy guys.

Aaron Cook – 2 1/3 IP, 7 ER. About a week ago, turf toe sidelined him.  This start makes me think he’s not completely over it.  I wouldn’t start him anywhere until we see a decent game.  Then again, most of you probably don’t start him anywhere anyway.

Roy Oswalt – 6 IP, 5 ER.  Speaking of pitchers who just don’t seem right.

Hunter Pence – Homers now in back-to-back games.  Love to see him explode in the final month-plus like a Spinal Tap drummer.

Julio Borbon – 4 steals on Saturday, 2-for-3 on Sunday.  He’ll be leading off for the next week vs. righties until Cruz returns.  If you need steals, grab him now.  There’s no time for this Borbon to age.  Oofa!

Junichi Tazawa – 5 IP, 4 ER.  I told you my trepidation on Tazawa in Friday’s Buy/Sell.  And that’s me alluding to me!

Grady Sizemore – HR and steal yesterday as he went 2-for-4.  Since the All-Star Break, he has 4 homers and two steals.  I really wish the Indians would just shut him down so I have no reservations about drafting him next year.  (1 Pun Point for Grey.)

Taylor Teagarden/Kelly Shoppach – HR for each yesterday as The Catchers That Had Everyone Caca-Cuckoo In 2008 rise again.

Colby Rasmus – HR yesterday.  In his short time in the majors, Colby has shown himself to be hella streaky.  (Hella’s for the 18-35 males.)  Right now, Colby is hella hot.  If you need OF help, get’m while they’re hot.

Ryan Howard – 2 HRs yesterday.  For one of my teams, I hope he goes on one of his 10 homer month tears.  For a different team where I don’t own him, I hope he tanks.  Only Natalie Imbruglia knows how I feel.

Brad Lidge – When a manager brings a closer in for a one out save, it’s called kid gloves.

Rafael Soriano – Figured out a way to explain his recent gopher ball troubles, he says he’s dealing with shoulder problems.   I still maintain he’s going to lose save opps in the near future.

Clayton Richard – 3 2/3 IP, 3 ER, but 12 baserunners as he tied his owners to the WHIPping post.  But he’s a HodgePadre and shouldn’t have been started in this game anyway.  But II, The Return of But:  He threw so many walks and he gets the same team next time at Petco (Cards) that I probably won’t start him there in most leagues.

Joba Chamberlain – 5 IP, 4 ER, 10 baserunners vs. the Mariners.  Potatoes to chips, I like the way the Yankees are babying him this year (skipping him and whatnot), but I like it for next year.  For this year, it’s not helping his value when he’s skipped then throws a bucket of fake puke over the movie theater balcony.

Rajai Davis – Stole his third base in four games yesterday.  How is he owned in only 17.5% of ESPN leagues?  I know 75% of ESPN leagues are abandoned, but still.  He should be owned everywhere.

Adrian Gonzalez – 4-for-5, HR yesterday.  I wonder if Adrian calls up other teams pretending to be Kevin Towers and tries to trade himself.

Randy Wolf – 7 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 10 Ks.  And he hit a homer or as frequent commenter, Steve, said, “Wolfman jack!”

Josh Willingham – HR yesterday, 3 RBIs and offered all of his green M&M’s to sweeten the Nats deal for Strasburg.

Geoff Blum – Hit his ninth homer yesterday.  Here’s something to blow your mind.  Geoff Blum’s power > Vladimir Guerrero’s power.  Want more?  Geoff Blum’s power > David Wright’s power.

Chad Billingsley was a fave on mine coming into the year, and he pitched great for maybe a third of a season, passable for a third and pretty forgettable for the other third.  It’s with great regret I tell you to sell him for fifty cents on the dollar in one year leagues.  He wasn’t pitching all that well for a while now and now he’s dealing with a hamstring injury.  (This injury may actually save his arm from falling off.)  In one year leagues, you need guys that are going to help you right now.  It’s August, ya’ll — thanks, Mr. Winkle calender — and Billingsley may end up on the DL.  You don’t need the headache in one year leagues, I would take the best deal I could get and grab a waiver wire pitcher that has been doing well to fill-in.  I hate selling low, but, as my old Polish neighbor used to say, what can do?  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Gil Meche – Here’s the kind of pitcher I’ll take a flier on for a 5th to 6th starter in leagues over the random Texas Rangers rookie starter of the day.  If you ignore two terrible starts from Meche out of his last ten starts, he has a 2.66 ERA.  Sure, it’s cherrypicking stats, but it’s my blog so there.

Chris Coghlan – I’ve been remiss in not mentioning Coghlan much, but he’s yawnstipating to me outside of OBP leagues.  Rocks solid eligibility, but even when he’s hot he has very mild power and some speed he doesn’t like to show.  *removing my chewed-up cigar*  It’s the bigs, kid.  Show your speed.

Alcides Escobar – SAGNOF!  Don’t expect much else unless your league credits secondary characters in Medellin.

Cliff Pennington – Isn’t this the guy who told me flip-flips weren’t appropriate footwear for the country club? No, random italicized voice.  This is the guy who’s currently hitting way over his head, but has some speed and plays middle infield.  I think he’s the guy at the country club too.

Carlos Gonzalez – CarGo is a pending trademark by Carlos Gomez, so I’m not sure we can use it for him.  Then again, Carlos Gomez may have let that lapse, like he let his career.  Carlos Gonzalez is not without his caveats, Latin Americans.  He usually only plays vs. righties.

Randy Ruiz – I don’t actually own this random outfielder schmohawk behind door number three, but I do like saying his name… Randy Ruiz, Randy Ruiz, Randy Ruiz…

Alex Gonzalez – The Sawx finally figured out their shortstop shituation.  Gonzalez isn’t worth grabbing in mixed leagues unless you’re in dire need of power at MI, but I’d grab him in an AL-Only league.

Wladimir Balentien – Transylvania’s number one son is hitting near .400 in his last 7 games, and he’s been playing nearly every day.  The average will come down, but his power could explode.  In NL-Only leagues, he should be owned.  Mixed leagues, I’d wait and see.

Trent Oeltjen – If you don’t own Oeltjen, it means you probably have some sense in your head.  I, on the other hand, lack sense.  I own him so many places it’s kinda embarrassing.  I might need utility scab rehab after the season. It would be me and five fat guys in a room talking about how we dropped Dexter Fowler after a 3-for-30 slump only to watch him steal 4 bases in his next 7 games.  Just us, and coffee, cigarettes, a bowl of assorted jellybeans that all taste like the black ones, an assortment of Danish Cookies and WD-40, because of its multi-purpose eligibility.  Yes, I’ve given this too much thought.

SELL

Junichi Tazawa – Solid Sawx prospect.  Just like they said about Buchholz, Masterson, Bard….  Wait, no, he’s a solid import like they said about Dice-K.  He’s also about 15 points short of Javier Vazquez in Scrabble.  He’ll be good in a year or two, I wouldn’t own him in non-keepers this year.

Nate McLouth – McLousy.

Vernon Wells – This isn’t a sell as much as a drop, and this isn’t for just Vernon Wells.  This is for all the guys that are currently owned because their name says they should be.  Vernon Wells hasn’t been good in a while.  Was he solid then?  Yeah, and maybe one day you’ll be sitting behind Vernon and his grandkids in a Friendly’s and you can hear all about it.  Until then, lose the nostalgia.

Tommy Hunter - For Neftali next year, I’m going to work all winter on getting used to owning a Rangers pitcher, but I just can’t get behind one right now.  Besides, Tommy Hunter?  C’mon, that’s a Witness Protection name.  He’s hiding something.

Every off-season in recent years there has been an extraordinary amount of hype surrounding foreign players, and this year was no different. Junichi Tazawa and Dayan Viciedo was on everyone’s mind this winter, but have seemed to become nonexistent since. Surprise, surprise, that must mean one of two things. The first being they haven’t produced, the second is that those who were talking about them have ceased because they realize that there is nothing to hype, I mean talk, about anymore. Nevertheless, I am here to report the reality of the situation.

Junichi Tazawa – SP – Boston Red Sox – 5-11 – 180 lbs – DOB 6/6/1986 – Throws Right
Japan has produced valuable major leaguers recently, but none have truly lived up to their hype, save Ichiro. Hideki Matsui’s Japanese homers are American doubles, Hiroki Kuroda is a great second or third starting pitcher, and Kaz Matsui is, well, a serviceable major league player (minus the anal fissures). Daisuke Matsuzaka has been a bit less than advertised, but then again he was deemed God’s gift to baseball. Look at this quick list of players and tell me who stands out on credentials not name recognition (all players are in the majors or minors):

Kosuke Fukudome
Kei Igawa
Akinori Iwamura
Kenji Johjima
Masahide Kobayashi
Hideki Okajima
Kenshin Kawakami
Takashi Saito
Ken Takahashi
So Taguchi
Tomokazu Ohka
Koji Uehara
Keiichi Yabu
Yasuhiko Yabuta

Two standouts – Saito and Okajima. Okajima is a dominate 8th inning pitcher and Saito was a top closer when he wasn’t hurt. Nevertheless, some have not lived near their hype (Fukudome), others haven’t had the time (Kawakami, Uehara) and others are what they are (Iwamura, Kobayashi, Igawa, Ohka).

So, why digress this much? Well, all of these players came to America and the MLB through the traditional path – that is they played professionally in Japan and then came to America (and to prove a point that not all foreign Japanese players come to America and are successful). Junichi actually came over before playing at the highest level of professional ball in Japan. After his dominating 2008 season (113 IP, 13 W, 114 k, 15 BB) he asked all 12 major teams that participate in the amateur draft in Japan not to draft him so he could seek a contract with a MLB team. The Japanese teams honored his request, and this past winter Mr. Tazawa signed a 3-year, $3.3 million contract ($1.8 million was a signing bonus). Junichi was offered better deals but wanted a chance to play for his childhood idol/hero – Daisuke Matsuzaka.

Well, his dream will have to wait until he proves himself in AA, and rises the ranks like all other prospects. But does he have a chance? He has a average fastball that ranges from 89-92 mph with good movement. If he overthrows it, it flattens out. He will have to learn to use what he has and not overthrow the pitch or he will become extremely homer prone; which he is not – for the record in 71 2/3 innings at AA this year his HR/9 is .88, or just 7 home runs! His slider is what has drawn so much attention. This offering is in the upper 70s, breaks hard and is his out pitch. He also throws the stereotypical Japanese pitch, the forkball. It isn’t much, but it’s there. Lately, he has started to develop a curveball, but it’s really more a work-in-progress than anything else; though it does have a nice arch and break – like a Barry Zito curve. Random tidbit: some have compared him to Hiroki Kuroda.

Some scouts have been scared off by his arm whipping pitching motion, and anytime arm whip and pitcher are associated or mentioned in the same sentence, even average baseball fans wince. His lower body is ahead of his arm, and his arm comes around with a ton of force and recoil. This is the whip action that scouts are fearing. Nevertheless, I couldn’t find any negative medical reports.

What has this produced? Actually, surprisingly, he has pitched better than I would have expected:

71 2/3 IP, 7 W, 4 L, 21 BB (2.64 BB/9), 66 K (8.29 K/9), 3.14 ERA (3.63 FIP), 1.16 WHIP .234 ave (.288 BABIP)

Those are relatively impressive numbers in AA. Not quite the numbers that he posted in lower level baseball in Japan, but still enough to warrant a promotion to AAA. There hasn’t been a lot of luck in those numbers as demonstrated by the BABIP, and his FIP is only half a run higher than his ERA. Since he is in Boston’s farm and they are loaded with pitching, AAA is probably the highest he’ll go this year, unless the Red Sox are decimated by pitching injuries. So hold tight, but in minor league keeper leagues and long term dynasty leagues he should have been on your radar, and now he should be on your team! Say hello to the Junichi Tazawa in 2010!

Dayan Viciedo – 3B – Chicago White Sox – 5-11 – 240 lbs – DOB 3/10/1989 – Bats Right

There hasn’t been as many Cuban players that have played in the majors due to political reason (Fidel Castro v. America), but that hasn’t stopped stars/ Hall of Fame players such as Tony Oliva, Tony Perez, and Luis Tiant from succeeding in the MLB. Other Cubans in the majors include: half brothers Livan and Orlando “el Duque” Hernandez, Alexei Ramirez, Jose Contreras, Yunel Escobar, and Kendry Morales (Rafael Palmeiro is Cuban but isn’t playing anymore). These secondary names are not Hall of Famers, but have put up numbers that have allowed them to play at a high level (even if it was only for a short time *cough* Alexei *cough*). However, Viciedo is deemed the greatest Cuban player of all time! That is saying a lot as there are several players that never played in the MLB due to political reasons that were stellar in their own rights (Cuban baseball has an extremely rich history rivaling American baseball history). Talk about hyperbole and media hype! If this is the case, history will prove itself, but let the numbers play out before that title is given to a 20-year-old.

Viciedo, Cuban “masher” was signed this off season by the Cuban hoarding White Sox for a tidy sum of $10 million over 4 years ($4 million was a signing bonus). With the Cuban Missile (Alexei Ramirez) and the aging Jose Contreras already on their team, the common belief is that this should help assimilate Viciedo into American culture… Well that would only work if he was in the majors. Instead, he is sitting in AA and hitting like he deserves to be there:

.276/.296/.362 (ave/obp/slg) 31/4/37/5 (R/HR/RBI/SB) in 243 AB (62 games)

3.2 BB%, 19.8 K%, .086 ISO, .330 BABIP

Those are not numbers that would lead someone to believe that he played on the Cuban national team at age 16 when he hit 14 homers and for a .337 average (which is true). Not only is his hitting, well, to be nice, awful, it’s overshadowed by his terrible fielding (15 errors in 52 games)! That’s one every 4[ish] games. Good thing that the White Sox have the DH and can plug his bat in there. Seriously though, that might not happen if he cannot start hitting. Most 20 year old players are in high A ball, and nearing AA. I am not sure if the hype is warranted, or the much less the $10 million price tag (average minor league salaries). At least he doesn’t strikeout like Mark Reynolds, but he walks less than Delmon Young and hits for power like a pitcher… and he can’t even blame luck!

Enough bashing, and on to an honest numerical evaluation. Right now, with the numbers I have (its a small sample size), it might be best to return to Dayan Viciedo latter in the year when he has more at-bats. However, I am evaluating him right now, and I would classify him as a hype star that is losing its shine. Dayan’s ISO is disturbing and his walk rate leaves a ton to be desired. Hopefully its just a little culture shock and he will have a great second half, but only time will tell. Don’t look to see him in the near future. A spring training invite is necessary because he is on the 40 man roster. So, maybe the 2010 spring training hype will become all encompassing again, but might actually start to produce.

*All stats are as of 6/14/2009