Fantasy Baseball Advice

Jason Bay has been terrible.  Like Don Mattingly’s wife in a mugshot terrible.  In June, J-Bay hit .230 and 4 homers, but he was hitting the cover off the ball in June compared to July.  In July, he’s hitting .203 with 1 homer.  This month Garrett Jones has hit more homers during REM sleep.  The optimist in me says Bay will hit 15 homers and .300 the rest of the way with ten steals.  The pessimist in me thinks he’ll be benched in favor of Chris Duncan.  The realist looks at all of his splits and sees a guy that has been consistent throughout his career, minus a season (2007) when he was battling knee problems.  The surrealist in me thinks Bay will hit a line drive up the middle that will ricochet off the pitcher and shoot to the 1st baseman who will smack the ball into center, then the ball will slowly roll back towards the infield until God tilts the field and the ball rolls towards the 3rd baseman, but God tilts too far and the field freezes causing the ball to roll back towards the catcher.  In all likelihood, Bay’s 2nd half should be somewhere in the realist realm (though it would be cool if the surrealist was spot-on).  I think Bay can give you 10+ homers, .280 average and a handful of steals.  Right now, I’m actively trying to acquire him in one league.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Erik Bedard – Back to the DL.  In related news, George Sherrill was an All-Star in 2008, Adam Jones in 2009 and Chris Tillman is about to be called up.

Ted Lilly – After he was rocked by the Phils, I said he might end up on the DL.  Lo and behold, voilà, alas, see that, told ya so, etc.  Lilly’s now on the DL.  Will miss about a month.

Kevin Millwood – Left after two innings because of tightness in his glutes.  That never bothered Richard Simmons.

Chad Gaudin/John Lannan – 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners and 8 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, respectively, with two no decisions.  Watching the Nats and Padres really tested my love for baseball.  I don’t want to test fate for the off chance Tom Paciorek is rehired, but listening to Bob Carpenter and Dibble is like sitting next to Ted Striker on an airplane.

Ryan Zimmerman – Since May when he hit .342, he’s hitting .238 with 5 homers and nary a steal.  This guy has 9 homers and is batting .260.  This guy is Kevin Kouzmanoff.

Everth Cabrera – It was about five games ago, I said I’m selling back all of my old EverCab CDs at Amoeba, now he has 4 straight games with a steal.  SAGNOF!

Kyle Blanks – HR yesterday.  Rudy’s pride and joy now has three homers in the last week (while batting about .240).

Daric Barton – 2-for-4, after he finally did something he left the game with a hamstring strain.  If he were a bigger name, he could have had the lead with the title, Barton Fink.

Dallas Braden – 5 2/3 IP, 7 ER and 16 baserunners.  I sat him in The Jetstream.  I’m going to give him his next start vs. the Blue Jays at home.  If that doesn’t work out, then bye-bye Braden.

Brett Gardner – Headed to the DL with a broken left thumb.  So much for the Fonzie impersonations.

Brett Cecil – 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 Ks.  Sticking with the newly-established Brett theme, Cecil now has three solid starts in a row and gets Oakland next.

Joe Blanton – 8 IP, 2 ER, 6 Ks.  Now has a 2.55 ERA through the last two months.  I’ve been starting him everywhere for the last three weeks in a 12 team league.  I’d own him in a 10 team league at this point.

Julio Lugo – Batting .571 since the trade to the Cards and has a homer and a steal.  Lugo wouldn’t be the first middle infielder lemon that LaRussa turned into lemonade.

John Smoltz – 5 IP, 6 ER.  I know he had a lot of great years.  But your nostalgia is hurting you like when you sneak off into your attic and look at photos of you with your one true love.  Burn the photos, man.  She’s married with kids.

Nolan Reimold – .417 and three steals since The Break.  No idea where this newfound speed is coming from, but he’s capable of a few week streak where he’s ownable in all leagues.

Kelly Johnson – 3-for-4, HR and steal yesterday.  Whatever Yunel was drinking last week, Johnson seems like he’s bogarting it now.

Jason Schmidt – 3 IP, 4 ER.  Yup, sounds about right.

Russell Martin – Hit his third homer yesterday.  He would be leading the league if this were April 7th.

Anthony Swarzak – 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER.  I wouldn’t pick him up with your team.

Seth Smith – 1-for-2, 1 steal.  After being declared the starting left fielder, he didn’t get the start Friday or Saturday.  Obviously Jim Tracy put starting in quotes.

Aaron Cook – 7 IP, 2 ER and the Win.  The third starter I had going yesterday in my crapfecta of pitchers (the other two were Lannan and Gaudin).  As I’ve said (numerous times) before, there is so much pitching out there you don’t have to have the exciting names (Liriano, Ervin Santana, Smoltz, Porcello, any number of rookie pitchers) to be competitive in pitching.  Boring works too.

Justin Morneau – 2 HRs yesterday as he makes his case for MVP.  Judge Grey presiding in the case of Morneau versus the AL field.  Without the runs and A-Rod hanging with Madge, what do you got?  A sucka in a uniform callin’ his shot…

Ervin Santana – 3 2/3 IP, 6 ER.  He’s mocking you now.  You took the flier; it didn’t work.  Let him go.  You’ll feel much better when he’s doing this to someone else’s team.

Gerardo Parra – Rico Suave’s mocking me now.  I held him for so long in a deep league.  Since I dropped him last week (4 games ago), 2 homers, 7 RBIs, 4 Runs and one steal.

Tony Pena Jr. – To go reverse Ankiel on us and become a pitcher.  If you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em…

The Sox are a bunch of homewreckers.  First they split of the LaRoche brothers then they break up the Duncan father/son combo in St. Louis.  Not good news for the softball team managed by Bob Boone with Bret and Aaron Boone on it.  Yesterday, the Red Sox acquired Adam LaRoche from the Pirates.  This hurts LaRoche’s value a bit, but he was kinda hurting his value on his own.  He’ll see time against righties, pushing Lowell to the bench in favor of Youkilis.  It’s doubtful Youuuuuuk will see a reduction in time other than the occasional day off.  This hurts Lowell’s value as well, but his old man hip was doing that already.  Since LaRoche will see time against the stronger half of the platoon and he’s a 2nd half hitter, he’s still worth owning in deep leagues, but you’ll need a backup for when he sits.  Meanwhile, the Pirates are that team in your keeper league that can barely field a team but they keep saying, “Wait til next year.”  So who plays 1st for the Pirates?  Jones?  Call up Pearce?  Sid “The Dream” Bream?  My guess is they’d stick with Garrett “I Need A Nickname” Jones and maybe call up Pearce in a month or so and give him some ABs.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Garrett Jones – 3-for-4, HR yesterday.  He’s now batting third for the Pirates and has 9 homers in about three games (and 11 RBIs).  I hate to be the buzzkill to your Jonesing, but he will cool off.  If you need a piece, no time like the present to trade him.

Ryan Doumit – 2 HRs yesterday.  Days like these make you glad you stashed him on your DL for three months.

Paul Maholm – 4 2/3 IP, 7 ER.  Only thing worse than a Pirates starter is one who throws a gem last time out then gets pounded.

Casey McGehee – HR yesterday as Felipe sat out with a sore hammy.  McGehee’s got spunk, but no playing time kinda hurts that.

Adam Jones – HR yesterday.  2nd homer since the All-Star break.  He’s not sure where he lost his stroke in June (maybe by the Doritos), but it looks like he’s found it.

Chris Duncan – Cards decided he didn’t look right with a ’stache so he was traded to the Sawx for Julio Lugo.  At best, Duncan won’t be anything but a bench player.  I imagine Francona will use him to pinch hit to get the opposing teams to bring in a lefty, then he’ll pull Duncan and put in a righty hitter for the ol’ switcheroo.

Julio Lugo – Julio Lugubrious is not worth owning in any league.

Clay Buchholz – 4 IP, 3 ER.  Well, that could’ve went better.  I’d start him next time out vs. the A’s, then depending on how that goes we might need to reevaluate.

Nelson Cruz – 2-for-2, 2 SBs.  Guess all his fractured finger needed was two days of rest.  I’d like to see him hit a homer before I call him “all better,” but it’s a step in the right direction.

Brad Lidge – 2/3 IP, 2 ER.  Kazaam!

Miguel Montero – Few hitters are hotter right now.  Yunel Escobar is another one.  Oddly, they both hit three-run homers yesterday.

Justin Upton – 0-for-3, not many colder hitters right now and I saw him limping in the game yesterday.  Gracie believed it was a tweaked back.  I’m not 100% sure, but it’s not going to help him kick this slump.

Tim Lincecum – 5 IP, 4 ER, 9 Ks.  I don’t usually watch games of A) Pitchers I don’t own B) Pitchers that are not available anywhere C) There’s no C.  But I watched Lincecum pitch yesterday.  Jurrjens didn’t outpitch him (7 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 9 Ks) as much as the Braves outhit the Giants.  (BTW, Five days ago, Matthew Berry said re: Pablo Sandoval, “The Giants have a better team than folks think these days…” If anyone can figure out how a team with the major league worst OBP and 2nd worst OPS is better than people think, I’d love to hear it.  I’m guessing they’re worst than he realizes, but that’s me.)

Russell Branyan – Continues his march towards the most homers while going 1-for-4.

Felix Hernandez – 7 IP, 1 ER, 8 Ks and won his 11th game.  F-Her is having one of those years where the run support is falling just right.

Mark DeRosa – Hit another homer and the Cards lost again.  Stop hitting homers!

Bobby Jenks – Ozzie said Jenks is his closer and quote, “…if people don’t want him to be my closer, don’t come to the God damn game.”  He then let Matt Thornton save the White Sox victory on Wednesday.  I think because he brought Thornton in in the 8th, Ozzie thought he technically wasn’t lying.

Bronson Arroyo – 5 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 8 Ks.  Ugly end result, but he gets the Padres next time out.

Ubaldo Jimenez – 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 Ks.  I wouldn’t have started him at home, but guess where he pitches next?  Metco!

Joe Mauer – 0-for-3.  I told you to trade him on May 22nd.  Since June 1st, he has 4 homers and a .329 average.  Miguel Montero’s outhitting that.

Chris Tillman – Supposedly going to get the call next week.  Here’s Chris Tillman’s fantasy breakdown from Scouting the Unknown.  For those too lazy to click-through, his K rate alone warrants a pick up.

Brandon Inge – Has a partially torn knee cap and says it’s excruciating.  But no fear, he also said this, “”How would I come out (of the lineup with) the race this close and for the fans of Detroit and the fans of Michigan going through what they’re going through with economics?”  You fantasy owners can thank Little Timmy, who told Inge this, “Gee whiz, Mister, since Pops fell between dem gears at the fac’try, Maw and the 8 of us kids have been hopin’ the ballteam could pull one out and give us somethin’ to believe in!”

Tony Bernazard – Former White Sox middle infielder and current Mets scout challenged the entire Double-A Binghamton Mets team to a fight.  And you thought Ozzie was the only crazy 80’s White Sox MI?  The best part was when the players started snapping their fingers while Bernazard and a prospect circled one another.  When you’re a Met, you’re a Met for life…

Josh Johnson injured? That would be precedented.  He came out of the game with a weak right shoulder.  Yeah, and I have a weak pitching staff without you.  Afterwards, Johnson said, “I just don’t feel great.”  That makes two of us.  Pitchers are always more prone to injuries than hitters and Johnson embodies that.  Or maybe he disembodies it.  Either way, this is bad news.  Hopefully, he caught the problem soon enough and won’t miss too much time.  I have a sinking feeling he’s headed for further bad news.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Chris Davis – Hit the game winning homer.  After the game, here’s what CJ Wilson said on Twitter, “Rangers are crazy powerful in the late innings. chip davis looked like he was channeling MJ23 with his hop into the scrum.”  There’s so many things to take away from that, it’s hard to know where to start.  In other Twitter news, the other day someone asked Alyssa Milano if she reads Razzball.  This is the kind of initiative we need.  We should all go ask her to say hello in the comments here.  And congratulate her on her new book (and Embrace of the Vampire.)

Wandy Rodriguez – 7 IP, 2 ER, 11 Ks.  If you’re not on the Wandwagon yet, you should be.

Brandon Morrow – I think he’s headed for the Disgraceful List.  Aardsma would be a smart play.

Michael Bourn – 4-for-5, 2 steals.  Clearly, Bourn got amnesia about what an awful player he was in the past.  I own him on a team.  Is it fo realz?  Who gives an eff in the effin’ eff hole?  He’s been great.

Ryan Dempster – 7 IP, 2 ER, 4.65 on the year.  I think it gets to about 4.30 and then tails off again.

J.J. Putz – Bone spur in his elbow or some shizz.  I know, your Putz is hard to let go of, but K-Rod looks fine, there’s really no reason to be *pinkie to mouth* putzing around.

David Ortiz – 0-for-7, 3 Ks.  You know what would’ve been nice?  When Manny was caught taking lady pills, Ortiz saying he was juicing for five years.  When I compared him to Mo Vaughn, Sons of Sam Horn came out talking about how 2009 was Ortiz’s bounce back year.   Yeah, looks about right.

Ervin Santana – 5 IP, 3 ER, 10 base runners and 5 Ks.  He didn’t pick up where he left off, obviously, but it was a tough first match up.  Now he needs to win the hearts and minds of his fantasy owners again.  Right now, they’re smitten with Wandy.

Matt Harrison – 2nd straight complete game.  Who are you, Matt Harrison?  I know!  Someone I wouldn’t own.

Carlos Delgado – Won’t go on the DL for at least a week.  Ain’t that grand?  Now he can take up a bench spot for you.

Felix Hernandez – 7 IP, 0 ER.  Gotta say I felt trepidations creeping through my skull bone on whether to start him against the Rangers.  Thankfully, I chip’d up and let him jump in the scrum.  Whatever the hell that means.

Erik Bedard – Probably will miss his Saturday start with a tight hamstring.  Tight hamstrings are the worst.  Why do they even put string around hams?

Billy Butler – 2-for-5 with his third homer of the year.  At the All-Star Game festivities, they should have a homer derby between Butler and Sandoval.  Mano vs. Mano; Moob vs. Moob; Fat Guy With No Power vs. Fat Guy With No Power.  Of course, the prize would be a ham — with no strings.

Asdrubal Cabrera – 4-for-5, now batting .336.  You guys mocked me when I said he was a good sleeper for this year.  Wait, that wasn’t mocking, that was ignoring.  Damn you!

David Wright – 4 steals.  Tied a Mets record.  No, not Reyes.  It was Vince Coleman.  This was according to Gary Cohen.  I didn’t fact check him, he could’ve made it up.

Fausto Carmona – 5 1/3 IP, 4 ER and the Win.  Still not regretting dropping him.

Justin Verlander – 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 13 Ks.  That’s a mighty delish line.  I’m not a big flip-flopper, but 69 Ks over 50 and a third innings is terrific.  His 2nd month has been as great as his first month was bad.  Hopefully, he doesn’t turn back into a six-foot five pumpkin in June.

Nolan Reimold – 1-for-5, but at least he played.

Bill Hall – HR yesterday.  I see your Gamel and I raise you a boo-ya.

Colby Rasmus – HR yesterday.  Take your time, Ludwick.

Julio Lugo – 5-for-6, with a steal, hitting .359 since returning.  Can he fend off Nick Green?  God, I’d hope so.

Scott Baker – 6 IP, 5 ER.  Scott Baker, Lieutenant Colonel of Suck.

Garrett Atkins – Major Suck.

Then one day Jed was hopin’ he could start; and Lugo and Scrappy Doo started fallin’ apart.  This is an opening for good ol’ Jed.  The kind to keep those taking late MI fliers fed.  Said Yawkey is the place you ought to be.  So he packed up his Wii to play with Papi.  Ortiz, that is.  Jed Lowrie is in, Julio Lugo is out and Nomar Garciaparra is so five minutes ago.  Yo, whaddup, double play pardner?  Not your knee, I assume.  And the Jed Lowrie fantasy sleeper post is back on like Donkey Kong.  Sure, the Sox are saying Julio Lugo may only be out a month, but he was ‘healthy’ last year and he lost playing time.  Do the math!  Anyway, here’s some more things I saw in spring training that pertains to fantasy baseball:

Dustin Pedroia – Man, I’m telling you right now (unless you’re reading this sometime in the future.  Damn you, Future Boy!) if Dustin Pedroia sheets the bed this year, I’m going to milk that carton at least once a week and twice on Moosday.  During the WBC (World Backups Championship?), Pedroia came up lame due to a strained muscle near his rib cage.  For those of us playing fantasy baseball that have never seen a “hitter” “hit,” strained muscles near the rib cage can cause pain when a batter swings.  If Pedroia is fine fine, he bounces back with no ill effects and still hits his 15 to 18 home runs.  Now what if Pedroia is not that fine fine?  Say he only hits 12 to 15 home runs.  Do you see what a waste of an early pick Pedroia could be?  You really want a 2nd round pick that might hit 12 home runs and steals 15?  Who are you, Kelly Johnson?  That’s giving me The Gas Face just thinking about it.

Chad Cordero – Yes, he’s been out for at least another two months.  Yes, he has no real competition to be the Mariners closer.  Yes, he looks like a child molester.  It’s just matter of him getting healthy.  He starts saving games in late-May at the earliest.  If I had room on my DL, I’d take this flier towards the end of my draft.  Worst comes to worst, one of your other guys gets injured and you drop him.  No harm, no foul.

Mike Fontenot – Ooh la la, Fontenot’s French for move him up your draft sheets.

Chris Davis – Hit his first home run of the spring.  He has 16 Ks in 40 ABs.  With everyone jocking the Davis Cup, let me reiterate how he may not hit .270 this year.  That’s not me jumping ship.  I talked about his propensity to strikeout back in December in my Chris Davis sleeper post.

Mark Teahen – 3 HRs so far.  If he’s playing 2nd, I’m buying late.

Andy LaRoche – With his brother not hitting until July, Andy is stealing some of the LaRoche familial love early.  He’s first in average and OBP for all spring trainingers.  Might be a very cheap sleeper for 3rd base.  If he keeps up his torrid March, I’ll write more on this.

Matt Lindstrom – He hurt something yesterday.  If you have him, I’d back him up with Leo Nunez.

Emmanuel Burriss – Is winning the job over Frandsen.  Stay on fire, Emmanuel.  Papadapolis will save you.

There’s no Reyes, Rollins or Hanley on this list of shortstops.  This list is guys that can be had later in your drafts if you’ve punted shortstop or still are looking for a middle infielder.  Look at this as a supplement to the top 20 shortstops of 2009 fantasy baseball list.  If you’re feeling especially industrious, click on the players name to read more about them or to see their 2009 projections.  Anyway, here’s some shortstops to target for 2009 fantasy baseball:

Ryan Theriot/Jason Bartlett – Exactly the kind of late-round shortstop you should be targeting when you’re feeling light on speed.  They’d be a nice MI complement if you had Hardy as your shortstop.  And if you get scooped on Theriot, just grab Bartlett.

Brandon Wood – Earlier this offseason, I said this, “Not sure yet what the Angels of Bobby Grichville have planned for Wood in 2009, but he has eligibility at 3rd and SS, which gives him the Superfecta eligibility of MI and CI.  Keep in mind that he was booted from a winter league for his poor performance. (The same league where convicted pedophile Luis Polonia is now the career hits leader. No lie; he’s the Pete Rose of the Dominican.)”  And that’s me quoting me!

Clint Barmes – What if I told you he was going to out produce Yunel?  You’d say, “Is that a compliment?”

Julio Lugo/Jed Lowrie – I wanted Lowrie to get the job just to put some flare in my MI spot, but it doesn’t look like it’s happening.  Lugo looks like the man to beat at shortstop and he’s good for 25 steals.  Either man could be a late round sleeper for an MI spot in deep leagues.

Asdrubal Cabrera – Remember that movie Clueless when they said, “As IF!”  When I read this shortstop’s name, I always hear it with that inflection, “As DRUBAL!”  Hmm… I’m pushing the Drubal pretty hard this offseason.  Well, he’s a cheap MI candidate so put that in your pipe and smoke it!  If you were, ya know, Popeye or Sherlock Holmes.