Fantasy Baseball Advice

Yesterday, Rafael Furcal went 2-for-4 with a steal.  I thought Furcal was overvalued in the preseason because I thought he was more fragile than Alanis after a breakup.  Well, he’s actually played the whole season, albeit terribly.  He’s been on base over 200 times.  He has 10 steals with 6 times caught.  Who gave him Kirk Gibson’s fist-pumping legs for five months?  But, and here’s the head turner, he has 4 steals in the last seven games.  Not sure what happened to Furcal the first 95% of the season, 10 steals used to be a good month for him.  Maybe he’s a Latin 31.  But never us mind, he’s hot right now.  If he was dropped anywhere, he’s currently hitting over .500 in the last week with 4 steals.  Go fur it!  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Bobby Jenks – I might’ve misspoke when I said Linebrink would be the closer.  Grey wrong?  Get outta here this instant! Yeah, I know, random italicized voice, the guy who traded for Jose Reyes in one league in May being wrong is crazy.  I originally said Linebrink because of how Ozzie had used him recently.  But Linebrink has been awful.  No disputing that.  Then again, I don’t think Matt Thornton’s going to suddenly become Franklin Morales of last week.  Either way, I don’t think this is a great situation for saves.  Okay, correction done.

Jermaine Dye – 2 HRs yesterday as he came down with a case of Furcalitis, a disease that boosts one’s stats when games no longer matter.

Michael Aubrey – HR yesterday.  I also really love him on Real Estate Intervention.

Matt Wieters – Hit another homer yesterday.  Member all that (lack of) work he did over the summer to make him underrated next year?  Yeah, he’s been outta his mind recently.  I knew it would happen eventually, I was kinda hoping eventually was next April.

Travis Snider – HR yesterday.  4 for his last 7, but it was against Orioles pitching and, as I tell my girlfriend, beware the small sample size.

Francisco Liriano – Should start against the Royals on Sunday.  He’ll get to face Greinke.  Sometimes it just ain’t your year.

Carlos Guillen – 3-for-4, 4 RBIs with 2 HRs yesterday.  With the way he’s played since returning from injury, he should sit out two months every year.  Oh, wait, he does.

Chad Billingsley – 6 IP, 3 ER, 9 Ks vs. the Nats.  I think they call this a tune-up for the playoffs.  Considering how broken down he’s been lately, they would be right.

Ryan Zimmerman – Hit his 31st homer yesterday and so did Miguel Cabrera.  I mention that for symmetry and because, other than the average, Zimmerman’s been just as valuable.

Drew Stubbs – 2-for-6, 2 steals.  What, no homers?

Homer Bailey – 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 baserunners, 0 Ks.  Blech, but he got the win.  I’m gonna have to get over not liking him because I think I’ll probably own him in some leagues next year.

Jonathan Sanchez – 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 9 Ks.  I pegged him as a borderline starter to take a gamble on for yesterday, along with Homer Bailey.

Randy Choate – Got the save yesterday.  So that’s who the closer is!  Choate came in to get two lefties and a righty (which turned into two righties and a lefty – Wakamatsu is a magician!)

Wade Davis – 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 Ks.  He gets Baltimore and supposedly the last start of the year vs. the Yankees, which will be the B lineup.  And there is no A lineup on the Orioles.

Gaby Sanchez – HR yesterday.  (S)He’s a decent name to look at in deep NL-Only keepers.  Keepers only though, (s)he’s not playing much at all right now.

Tim Hudson – 6 IP, 2 ER, 11 baserunners as he tied his owners to the WHIPping post.  As someone who watched 75% of this game, Hudson looked terrible.  Got very lucky, even with Kelly Johnson mucking up a double play ball.

Chris Narveson – 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 10 Ks.  Anyone who’s read this blog for even a short period of time knows I got excited when I saw 10 Ks in under 6 innings.  Unfortunately, he gets the Rockies in Coors next time out so there’s nothing to see here.

Bud Norris – 6 IP, 0 ER.  Nice, but in the same boat as Narveson with a tough next matchup (@Philly).

Julio Borbon – Stole his 17th base yesterday in only 119 ABs.  I have a feeling someone’s value is going to be inflated next year.

Brad Lidge – 2/3 IP, 2 ER and his 11th blown save.  Imagine if Scioscia managed the Phillies.  Lidge would be in the Phanatic costume doing belly flops during rain delays.

Rich Harden – Now the Cubs are saying he may get shut down.  Yeah, I said that last week.  Read the blog, doode!

Milton Bradley – Has a new game, Pin The Blame On The Cubbies.

Tim Lincecum missed yesterday’s start vs. the Padres (there goes that 14 K start) and gave way to the Giants big-time rookie pitching prospect, Madison Bumgarner.  Lincecum should be back by this weekend.  A detailed Madison Bumgarner outlook can be found where it says, “Madison Bumgarner outlook.”  (Yeah, still haven’t figured out how to naturally link to something.  I feel like Buzz Bissinger.  Bleh!  What are these things you call links?  Bleh! Actually, that sounds more like The Count.)  So one in for Mad-Bum, and no harm done.  5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 Ks.  I think he can supplant Joe Martinez in the rotation.  He sure as heckfire has a better name… Go with Jose at least, geez.  Bumgarner will have value in all leagues down the stretch if he has a rotation spot.  He’s risky, but in the NL West and with his stuff, well worth a look in mixed leagues.  In keepers, pursue him aggressively.  He’s real and he’s spectacular.  I expect he’ll take the David Price route next year.  Start in the minors, then get the call in June.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Brad Lidge – Prior to getting removed from a save situation for Madson, Manuel said that Lidge will remain the Phils closer.  HA!!!  Sorry.  Lidge hasn’t been a closer in three months.  Are they freakin’ kidding me?  Lidge is pitching like he’s wearing contacts that bear Pujols’s face.  Please, someone tie Lidge to a bed and break his ankles to put him out of his misery.

Alex Gordon – He returns from his Triple-A stint.  A lot has been made of his trip to the minors.  (Because of the minors stint, he’ll be under contract through 2013.)  People are saying the Royals pulled a low move to delay free agency.  Um, and Gordon’s done something to stay in the majors?  At this rate, he may not be a major leaguer by 2013.  Though, February Grey still will probably find a way to talk him up for next year.

Pedro Martinez – 6 2/3 IP, 3 ER.  Not great vs. the Nats, but I would’ve taken it over the roofie-ing I took from Carlos Torres.  Don’t worry, I’ll get to that.

Raul Ibanez – 3-for-4 with 2 HRs yesterday.  I swear, after three months of homer sobriety from Ibanez, I was a twitch away from pulling the trigger on him.  Now, he’s hot.  Someone was looking out for me.  They obviously didn’t care enough to warn me about Carlos Torres.  Fantasy baseball, because every day stress is not enough.

Carlos Torres – 2/3 IP, 5 ER vs. the A’s.  I hate you, Carlos Torres.  I swore off rookie pitchers earlier this year because of a start by Hochevar vs. the A’s.  Why do the A’s hate me?  Someone, help!  I was roofied and I’m hemorrhaging from the A’s.

Julio Borbon – 2 HRs yesterday and a steal.  Someone’s been talking to Drew Stubbs.

Elvis Andrus – 2 steals yesterday.  If you need steals, maybe he’s running now, cause he hadn’t been.

Frank Francisco – 1 IP, 2 ER.  Kazaam!

Nick Swisher – 2 HRs yesterday.  Hitting over .300 in the last seven games with 3 homers.

Evan Longoria – Has 5 homers in the last 8 games and is hitting near .500 in his last seven games.  H2H teams rostering Longoria tip their caps.

Garrett Jones – Hit his 19th homer yesterday.  If I didn’t see it myself, I wouldn’t have believed it, but after Robot Jones hit his homer, he elevated five inches off the ground to allow wheels to slide out from his cleats and he rolled around the bases.

Dustin Pedroia – This might be Scrappy Doo’s first appearance in a daily roundup this year.  Well, anyway, he hit two homers yesterday against the Orioles’ Double-A pitching.

Felix Pie – 0-for-3, and 2 for his last 13.  I think he’s back to being lame.

Carlos Beltran – Returned with a 1-for-4.  Now he has three weeks to hit 35 homers and steal 20 bases.  Or if he just outproduced Angel Pagan, that would be nice, too.

Cameron Maybin – You’re going to hear about every positive thing he does until next year.  Yesterday, he hit a homer.

Nate McLouth – Hit his 2nd homer since he returned.  This is a hunch, but I think he realizes he has three weeks to make his season’s stats look somewhat palatable.

Manny Parra – Left the game with neck spasms.  Manny, you don’t watch the ball off the bat.  That’s how you get a crick in your neck.

Mat Gamel – Was recalled.  But McGehee’s got the corner locked down like Marlo Stanfield.

Corey Hart – Is back from the DL.  He says he wants to steal bases.  I have no idea if he’s lying.  I couldn’t see his eyes through his sunglasses.

Chris Davis – 3-for-4 with a HR in yesterday’s nightcap.  In the, uh, daycap he went 0-for-5.

Michael Brantley – He’s stealing bases.  You know you wanna.  Go ahead, pick him up.

Franklin Gutierrez – Hit his 16th homer yesterday.  The Big FraGu’s having a better year than Carlos Beltran, Grady Sizemore and Josh Hamilton.  Cust kayin’.

Matt Murton – Called up by the Rockies.  Score this a victory for the National Association for the Advancement of Gingy People.  But the NAAGP won’t rest until Murton gets playing time, so there will be a lot of late nights for them.

J.A. Happ – His strained oblique is still vaguely hurting and will miss another start.

Jeff Baker – The pride of Bad Kissingen, West Germany went 3-for-4 yesterday as he hits near .400 in the last week.

Jake Fox – Piniella hates him.  Bobby Scales?  Sam Fuld?  They sound like the bassist and drummer for the Cubs’ heavy metal band, Quite The Riot.

Chad Qualls is probably done for the season.  The closer shituation isn’t going to be pretty in Arizona, unfortunately.  We’re looking at a closerousel.  I’d list the candidates in this order:  Juan Gutierrez, Clay Zavada, Esmerling Vasquez, Daniel Schlereth and Blaine Boyer.  Reading those names again, I vomited into a trash bin and the ghost of Hoyt Wilhelm materialized and said in a British accent, “Be careful, Grey.  Gutierrez is iffy at best and Zavada can’t see past his mustache when he pitches from the stretch.”  Because times are lean for saves in a few of my leagues, I’ll cop to grabbing the first two guys.  Careful about going with any of them if you don’t need saves.  But really, who doesn’t need saves?  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Krispie Young – In America, everyone gets a 2nd chance — John Travolta, Michael Vick and the police officer from The Village People.  Maybe people get 2nd chances in Kathmandu.  I don’t know.  I’ve never heard anyone say, “Everyone gets a 2nd chance in Kathmandu.”  Krispie returns to the majors and should be play nearly every day.  What can we expect?  Nothing.  How’s that optimism?  But what can he do?  Well, he’s been hot in his recent Triple-A stint and he had a decent 2nd half last year.  Absolute ceiling of expectations would be 4 homers and 4 steals in September.  It’s not going to save your team, but it could help.

Scott Kazmir – In case you don’t have cable in your dungeon, Kazmir was traded to the Angels.  Maybe going out to Dave & Buster’s after every game, rather than Hooters will help focus Spazmir, but I have my doubts.  He’s been no joy to own thus far this year, and I’m skeptical that he suddenly will turn things around.

Andy Sonnanstine – He’ll get the call this Tuesday to replace Kazmir.  And, as you know, Tuesday is the new hump day.

Jake Peavy – His elbow had a “recurrence of tightness.”  Sounds like a bad Ashton Kutcher movie.  Oh, wait, they’re all bad.  Hey, look at me, I Twitter!  I’m Ashton Kutcher!  I’m in movies opposite Anne Heche! Sorry, I don’t like Kutcher.  So, Peavy’s having problems with his elbow… Well, I didn’t expect him to save many teams in September, but I did think he could be helpful.  Now, not so sure.  If you have no room on your DL, I’d consider dropping him.

Akinori Iwamura – HR yesterday.  Sitting under your MI trellis with Everth Cabrera, Gordon Beckham and Alexei Ramirez and Akinori walks up with a nice glass of iced tea.  Do you ask someone to get up so Aki can sit down?  Right now, Iwamura’s hitting at the bottom of the lineup, but that could change if he hits.  But really the best thing you can hope for from him is Runs and only if he’s at the top of the lineup.

Joba Chamberlain – 3 IP, 2 ER.  The Yankees said they were abandoning Joba Rules (skipping him).  But it seems like they’re just altering the rules to include starting him but then pulling him early in games (after 35 pitches on Sunday).  That does no one any good in fantasy.  Punt!

Jermaine Dye – HR yesterday as he went 2-for-11 over the weekend with one RBI.  I’m still fine with abandoning him.  Don’t look back in anger, Liam.

Matt Kemp – HR yesterday and recently he’s been batting in the top half of the lineup.  A commenter asked me if I would draft Sizemore or Kemp first in 2010.  At first I said Sizemore, but it’s very close and I could see February Grey changing his mind on that.  Kemp really has been that great this year.

Bronson Arroyo – 7 1/3 IP, 2 ER.  His run of quality starts continues.  I don’t play for Wins because they’re hard to predict, but I will say Arroyo has been miserably unlucky… Or maybe the Reds have just been miserably bad.  Either way, Arroyo’s not a great bet for wins, but he’s been solid in ratios.

Sean West – 6 IP, 1 ER, 7 Ks.  Has a respectable ERA (4.22) but a terrible K/BB ratio (47/35).  He gets the Nationals and the Mets in his next two starts.  To some that may sound like the cat’s meow and the cat’s pajamas.  Well, I’m not a cat person.

Adrian Gonzalez – Sat out two straight days with a bicep(s?) injury.  He pinch hit though on Sunday so it shouldn’t be too serious.  I did enjoy seeing Oscar Salazar batting third yesterday.  He’s the 1st baseman; first basemen bat 3rd!  Bonkers, I tell ya.  Bonkers…  Oh, but it did work as Salazar went 3-for-4.  Inconceivable!

Feliz Pie – Has 3 homers in the last four games while batting near .400 over the last week.  That’s some tasty pee-ay.

Paul Byrd – 6 IP, 6 baserunners, 0 ER as he got the start for the Sawx.  I wouldn’t pick him up with your team.

Garrett Jones – Hit his 16th homer yesterday.  In other news, are you kidding me?!

Julio Borbon – Only got on base once and he stole a base.  Can someone conference call Alcides Escobar and Borbon so we can get Alcides running?  I’ll moderate/translate.  Anyone know how to say SAGNOF in Spanish?

Carlos Zambrano – 3 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 11 baserunners.  This ain’t exactly like predicting in 1975 that OJ Simpson will one day kill his wife, but end up in prison for trying to steal his own memorabilia, but when you can’t get out of the 4th inning vs. the Mets something is not right.

Kendry Morales – 2-for-4 with his 30th homer yesterday.  He hits .311 on the year as he nears 100 RBIs.  Still, I get the feeling he might be underrated next year.

Zach Greinke – 1 hitter vs. the Mariners.  Hopefully, the BBWAA can skim their eyes to the right of his Win total.

Russell Branyan – Headed to the DL.  But, wait, who’s going to give me my 1-for-12 with a homer every third game?  Later, Branyan.  Way to regress to your subpar norm in the 2nd half.

Carlos Gonzalez – Returned with a stolen base.  Hopefully, CarGo can pick up where he left off before his steak and ail.

Before we get into today’s Buy/Sell, I want to clear something up.  Last week someone commented that my Buy/Sell post only had Buy guys in it for very deep leagues.  This is sorta true.  With only a little over a month left of the season, just about every league’s trade deadline has past.  So I could tell you to buy Manny Ramirez, but how are you going to do that?  I do believe in the last month of the season, there’s something else you should be doing.  Or actually not doing.  You should no longer be waiting around for production.  Jermaine Dye’s put up fine stats this year.  You guys going to get a room in October and talk about his great May?  If Rajai Davis is on your waivers and you need steals and don’t need power, forget Dye’s previous production and go for the here and now.  You’re up against the clock, fantasy baseballers (<–my Mom’s term).  You only have so much time to make this shizz happen.  If it’s going to happen.  This is more or less for one year leagues.  In keepers, you need to be prudent about who you can drop.  Oh, and bee-tee-dubya, Jermaine Dye was dropped to fifth in the order and has one homer in the past month while batting .187.  Cut the umbilical, doode.  You guys are done.  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell for this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Jack Cust – Wait, I know a better title for this post, “How To Bore The Crap Out Of Your Readers With Boring Ass Names?” Random italicized voice, you seem like you have a bit of a chip on your shoulders.  No, not at all. Oh, okay.  So Cust may be boring, but when do I tell you to pick up Cust?  Maybe twice a year?  This is one of those times.  (Sidenote:  When I was seven years old, I kept bugging my grandparents to take me to see the hookers in New York because I wanted to see if they really had hooks.  So we go down a street in pre-Giuliani New York filled with prostitutes.  Of course, my grandparents, being the first generation of ridiculous — me being the 3rd, pull up to a prostitute to ask her to show me her hook.  As soon as the window goes down, the prostitute says to my grandfather regarding my grandmother, “Dump the b**ch and make the switch.” Ah, yes, memories.)  To tie it back in, dump Dye and switch to Cust.

Julio Borbon/Chris Davis – Hank Blalock’s loss is Chris Davis and Julio Borbon’s gain.  For Borbon, SAGNOF!  For Davis, pray for less Ks and more power.

Jonathan Sanchez – If you throw out May and June when Sanchez was dirty, and only count the other months when he was filthy, he has a sub-3 ERA.

Scott Podsednik – Never been a big fan of Podsednik’s (though his wife is hot as dog balls), but he’s been terrific just about the whole season.  He’s giving you a poor man’s Victorino right now.  I will call you Feign Victorino.

John Smoltz – Wasn’t that long ago I was pretty down on Smoltz.  Hey, it’s a fantasy baseball ‘pert’s prerogative to change his mind.  Smoltz has a real nice schedule ahead and supposedly Carpenter spotted how he was tipping his pitches.

Leo Nunez – He’s been getting saves for 2 months now.  He’s owned in only 19% of ESPN leagues.  Finally, we figure out how many ESPN leagues have been abandoned.

Eric Young Jr. – SAGNOF!

Tim Hudson – Will return on Monday.  I went over him in this morning’s post.  Go ahead and scroll down.  I’ll wait.  *taps finger, sips water, burps*  Hey, there you are!  Okay, now lower your eyes to the next line.  Lower… Lower… You’re still reading this line.

J.P. Wheelerfour – The Rays have very little room for error.  If Howell continues to blow games, someone will be called in to replace him.  Unfortunately, it’s not clear cut who that somebody will be.

Ryan Roberts – Besides sounding like someone who got their start in the talkies, Roberts has been on fire recently.  Batting near .450 in the last week.

Michael Aubrey – Those Orioles always needing an Aubrey!  Michael Aubrey’s been diddling himself for years in the minors, but the Orioles are giving him time vs. righties.  I wouldn’t pick him up in mixed leagues, but in AL-Only leagues I’d take a flier.

Brandon Allen – Brandon Allen’s giving you his guarantee or your money back!!!  I like Allen better than Aubrey by a lot, but I’m still not crazy for him in mixed leagues.  I also went over him in the September call ups post-a-ma-whoosies.

SELL

Johan Santana – If he’s still owned in your league, your league has an absentee owner.  Send that absentee owner an email telling them they suck.

Charlie Haeger – I hate knuckleballers.  The pitch is too unpredictable for even the pitcher.  At any moment, he could give you a roofie shellacking.  So I won’t own Haeger. But he does have a decent matchup next.  If you have room for risk, do what you do.

Chipper Jones – 420 at-bats.  What is the type of at-bats Adam Jones has right after smoking a bowl? No, good guess though.  It’s the over/under for Chipper this year.  He’s at 381.  So do you think he can hit 15 homers in the next 40 ABs that he’ll spread out over the course of a month?  Or do you think you can find someone more valuable on waivers?  This has a lot to do with your league, but Chipper’s struggling with a wrist injury and could be on the DL by September 15th.  So it might be time to lose the glass Chipper in ten team leagues.

If you can’t find a high risk/high reward outfielder on your waivers right now, you’re just not trying very hard.  Sorta on topic, I feel like picking up the latest high risk/high reward hitter is like double dog daring your leaguemates.  You think picking up Snider is risky?  I just picked up Wladimir Balentien! Oh, yeah?  I’m grabbing Matt Diaz and Chase Headley!  *beads a sweat from random italicized voice*  Fine, I’ll grab Angel Pagan! As for Travis Snider, he’s still very young and raw like a nice piece of toro.  If you need pop, he’s worth a flier in all leagues to see if you can catch some lightning in a bottle, Thor.  Though he’s just as capable of striking out 30 times in the next month and batting .130 as he is of hitting 8 homers.  If your itchy for rookie nookie, go for it.  Just beware the rash.  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy and sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Matt LaPorta – The MLP Package is on in Cleveland.  Now it’s up to LaPorta to make it watchable.

Drew Stubbs – Has great speed and BBQ.

Kyle Blanks – For power, you could do worse.  Fun fact about Kyle Blanks, every year for Halloween, he dresses as Michael Clarke Duncan and he wears no costume.

Julio Borbon – Great, terrific, wonderful.  All signs pointing to fantastic.  Could win Player of the Week.  Has a long way to go to being worthwhile for an extended period of time, but while he’s hot, grab him.

Carlos Gonzalez – We’re all gonna go blind if I keep flagellating Carlos Gonzalez.

Rajai Davis – SAGNOF!  I’m only mentioning him again, because he’s still only owned in 25% of ESPN leagues.  Even if 75% of ESPN leagues are abandoned… Wait, does that means he’s 100% owned?  Hmm… Color me confused.

Bronson Arroyo – He’s had one bad start since the All-Star Break.  That is all.

Billy Wagner – Lukewarm buy here.  If you really need saves, okay.  But he needs to not only get dealt, but he needs to end up on a team where he’ll be getting saves.

Mark Ellis – Picking up Mark Ellis and an orangutan couldn’t even get Jane Goodall’s nipples hard, but Ellis has been hot and he has 2nd base eligibility, so there.

Jeff Baker – I almost went with the title, The Fabulous Baker Boy and Jeff Baker as the lead.  Jeff Baker?  Boy, perhaps.  Fabulous?  Seems to be overselling him.  Wow, this is already shaping up to be a major sell on this buy.  So what can we expect of Jeff Baker?  He has great eligibility!  How’s that for a buy?  He has good pop that never fully materialized in Colorado.  So now it’s going to materialize? Yeah, I know what you’re saying.  He hit 20+ homers in his last full year of Triple-A.  He also has ten steal speed over an entire season.  Right now, he’s the Cubs starting 2nd baseman.  So if you need some pop from your MI slot, Baker’s worth a look.

SELL

Aubrey Huff – I didn’t like him at all in the preseason.  Then when he was terrible, I looked at his 2nd half splits.  Splits, indeed.  But like Biff Tannen, make like a banana.   I’m done ever liking him.

Brett Anderson/Trevor Cahill -  Way over their innings.  Beane needs to either shut them down or trade them for seven first round picks.

David Price – Another guy that’s pushing the limits of what a young pitcher should throw.  Murmurs say Sonnanstine will be taking over Price’s rotation spot in September.  Murmurs also say, the guy on Megan Wants a Millionaire is a murderer, but I really want to see the rest of the season.  C’mon, VH1!  This could be the best TV ever.  He goes to open a wine bottle and you try to imagine what he’s thinking about holding a corkscrew.

Ryan Doumit – I preach patience with catchers relying on the Ron Popeil, “Set It and Forget It” method.  I’m going to make an exception for Doumit because he’s been terrible.  Even the Pirates have noticed his egregiousness and moved him down the order.  When the Pirates are moving guys down the order, it’s time to abandon ship.

Hiroki Kuroda – Regarding his concussion, he said through a translator, “The first two days I had a hard time sleeping and I even had a dream about getting hit.”  The translator was Nicole Kidman.  Weird!

Travis Hafner – At this point, the only advantage to owning Hafner would be to use his head to crack open walnuts.