Fantasy Baseball Advice

Even if you draft one or two outfielders in the top 100 (which you should), you’ll still need to identify some late bargains.   The top 20, 40, 60 and 80 outfielders for 2010 fantasy baseball can be found under the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings.  This is by no means all the outfielders I’d draft for one of my teams.  This is a list of guys that will go late and could provide some healthy returns.  Where applicable, click on the player’s name to read more about them and to see their 2010 projections.  Anyway, here’s some outfielders to target for 2010 fantasy baseball:

Jay Bruce – Bruce is actually a good case study for someone who wants to see how long it takes a player to go from being a hyped rookie to actually producing.  Bruce burst on the scene in 2008, then bust on the scene in 2009 and now can actually start producing.

Nolan Reimold – If Reimold takes the Bruce route, it might not be until 2011 for Reimold.  But, like the secret Secret Recipe, Reimold has more seasoning.  (I’m a fried chicken conspiracy nut!)

Corey Hart – Hart isn’t a slam dunk by any stretch, but, if he can stay healthy, he’s a good bet for 20/20.

Dexter Fowler - I’m going to ignore that Baseball Prospectus’s most comparable player for Fowler is Paul Householder because even before the subprime mortgage crisis let Paul down, he was not a household name.  (See what I did there?  That shizz was like butterflies in your ears!)  Here’s my limb:  in 2011, Dexter’s going to be a top 20 outfielder.

Colby Rasmus – Rasmus ties together any outfield you’ve drafted like a Tony LaRussa scarf ties together a fur coat and a polyester shirt.

Travis Snider – Cheap homers late with the chance for cheap lots of homers.  And he has the same neck as this guy.

Jason Heyward – Caveats:  rookies usually crash and burn; it’s probably a year too early for Heyward.  Caveats aside, my man can hit!  Ride that donkey-donkey!

Austin Jackson – If his name were Joe Smith, no one would know who he was.  He has a shot to be the leadoff hitter and every day player.  Jordan Schafer had that shot last year for the Braves, too.  Doesn’t mean everything, but Jackson’s worth the flier.

Kyle Blanks – As long as the Padres don’t fly Southwest Airlines, Blanks should near 30 homers.

Julio Borbon – I know saying this is kinda like yelling fire in a crowded theater, but I think Borbon is Ellsbury 20 rounds later.  Zoinks!

Brett Gardner – Rudy has Gardner at 75/4/38/.266/36 in 440 ABs.  He concedes that he thinks the ABs might be bullish and the average could be worse.  The runs also seem like they’re on the high side in that projection.  But notice one stat we’re not tempering — steals.  (“No Tempering” sounds like an unreleased TLC song.)  Gardner’s a $4 player with $21 of it in stolen base value.  As in, he’d be worth -$17 in a mixed, 12 team leagues if he had no speed.

Cameron Maybin – If he can get healthy, he might get into the two hole.  That always worked for Tom Cruise.

After the top 20 outfielders for 2010 fantasy baseball, guess what we have here?  The top 40 outfielders for 2010 fantasy baseball.  That’s right, Wonderful just gave birth to Awesome.  Wanna hear something even awesomier?  I’m going to turn this to 60 then 80.  Hopefully I don’t blow my amp.  The hardest part about writing these 2010 fantasy baseball rankings posts is writing this opening.  Trying to make the clerical stuff sound less clerical, ya know?  Actually, when I point it out, it gets more clerical.  As with other rankings, where I see tiers beginning and ending are mentioned along with my projections.  Anyway, here’s the top 40 outfielders for 2010 fantasy baseball:

20. Shin-Soo Choo – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Span.  I call this tier, “Speed threats with weak power.”  As mentioned aforely, this entire tier could be above the “Power threats with weak speed” tier that ended the top 20 outfielders post.  Depends on how you’re building a team.  Okay, now on Choo.  I love that when I search a baseball site for Choo I find Choo Freeman listed first.  Choo Freeman’s getting some Jennie-O turkey for that one.  The non-Freeman, Choo had a bit of a ridunkiculous BABIP.  Don’t know what that’s all about.  The fellas over at Fangraphs hinted that Choo’s choo-choosing where the ball is going with telekinesis.  Nice, when they do a Broadway adaptation of Zapped, Choo can play the Baio role.  Assuming Choo keeps placing line drives between fielders with nothing more than a constipated-looking stare, he should maintain his average.  2010 Projections:  90/18/100/.285/20

21. Bobby Abreu – There’s a few guarantees in life, death, taxes and Bobby Abreu hitting 15 homers.  Yet, he’s a tapestry of different numbers as far as how many steals he’s going to get.  If you had a three-sided coin that had the number twenty, twenty-five and thirty each on a different side then flipped it in the air… Well, I don’t know how a three-sided coin would even land so I got lost in my own example.  2010 Projections:  95/15/100/.300/20

22. Shane Victorino – The Crapolanco trade to the Phillies doesn’t help Victorino’s value as far as Runs, but he’s solid in other categories.  Plus, we can always hope for an injury to the usually durable Crapolanco.  2010 Projections:  75/12/85/.290/30

23. Ben Zobrist – Zobrist’s projections are in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball post.

24. Denard Span – His caught stealings last year are a little disconcerting (10 times in 33 attempts), but I think he can potentially sneak in 12 homers.  2010 Projections:  100/10/70/.300/22

25. Alfonso Soriano – This is a new tier.  This is a two person tier.  This doode and Rios.  I call this tier, “Reclamation projects.” Obviously last year Soriano sucked on the suckhole for the better part of the year.  Maybe his Latin 34 is finally catching up to him.  Wouldn’t surprise me to see him nose dive in 2010.  He only hit 13 homers last year against clubs not named the Astros.  His speed is not what it once was.  I don’t think arthroscopic knee surgery’s going to be the answer to that.  Wow, I’m really selling this bounce back, huh?  The reality of The Situation™ is that there’s question marks with all of these guys.  Soriano can still hit 25+ homers and steal 10+ bags.  2010 Projections:  70/25/85/.270/12

26. Alex Rios – Prepare for another lukewarm sales pitch.  Rios’s BABIP last year was almost fifty points off his career average.  So, say he hit .280 last year with the Runs and RBIs that comes with those extra hits.  Now imagine he still hit the 17 homers and stole the 24 bases.  Still  disappointing, but less so.  Almost convincing, huh?  2010 Projections:  85/19/70/.275/22

27. Carlos Lee – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to McLouth.  I call this tier, “This is your father’s fantasy baseball outfield.”  This tier is compromised of the oldies but goodies or, perhaps more aptly, oldies and were goodies that may or may not be that goodie anymore.  In 2007, Lee hit 32 homers; in 2008, he hit 28, then last year he put up 26 homers.  Um, bad trend.  If he can reverse that, oh goodie!  2010 Projections:  65/27/100/.300/5

28. Manny Ramirez – Outside of an insane 2nd half in 2008, Manny really hasn’t been that good in a while.  Name value is making him seem like more than Cuddyer.  2010 Projections:  85/28/100/.300

29. Torii Hunter – Double I is like an Elizabeth Vargas stalker… Always near 20/20.  Thank you, Jay Leno!  2010 Projections:  75/23/85/.275/17

30. Carlos Beltran – Was a real battle trying to rank Beltran.  I really need to hear more news on his knee and see how he’s progressing.  This is tentatively where I’d start to look at him.  2010 Projections:  70/20/80/.280/12

31. Raul Ibanez – If it wasn’t for his home park playing like a wiffle ball stadium, I would’ve dropped him further because of his 2nd half.  Since I think my buck-fifty frame could hit 25 homers in Citizen’s Bank, I’m willing to give Ibanez the benefit of the doubt.  2010 Projections:  85/27/100/.270/3

32. Johnny Damon – He’s like the Brian Roberts of the outfield.  Homers go up, steals go down.  Steals go up, homers go down.  Put it together, Damon, your time is running out.  2010 Projections:  100/20/75/.290/15

33. Nate McLouth – Torii minus fifteen points on average or CarGo with no upside.  It’s okay, but if you have an erection for longer than ten minutes after drafting McLouth, you should seek immediate medical attention.  2010 Projections:  95/20/75/.260/20

34. Hunter Pence -This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Reimold.  I call this tier, “I wanted to rank all of these guys higher.”  I.e., I like the guys in this tier.  They’re not slam dunks, but to varying degrees I’m very excited about them.  Do I want an outfield of, say, Pence, Bruce and Reimold?  No, not at all.  That’s too much of a good thing.  That good thing being upside. re: Pence; he’s going to be the magical 27 years old in 2010 when baseball players don a green hat similar to one seen in Leprechaun: In The Hood and their power reaches its peak.  A big season is in store.  2010 Projections:  85/30/100/.295/15

35. Andrew McCutchen – Yes, in the tier of guys I’m gunning for is an Astro, a Pirate, a Red and an Oriole.  Ugh, this means I’m gonna have to watch these teams during the season.  Alas, we’ll save that setback for the season.  Check it, some of the things you just can’t figure.  Why is Victorino ranked above The Dread Pirate when their projections are near-identical?  Because, for three years in a row, Victorino has already done what The Dread Pirate could do.  McCutchen is the brand new model, the 2010 Victorino.  2010 Projections:  90/15/60/.280/30

36. Jay Bruce -  As Master Gee would say, “Well, it’s on on on on on on on on.”   Went over my Jay Bruce fantasy already.  I like, friend.  I’m practically daffy for him.  Do I like him as much as Bill James who projected him for 38 homers and 10 steals?  Only Bruce’s Mom loves him that much.  2010 Projections:  80/30/95/.270/7

37. Carlos Gonzalez – He’ll probably only give you McLouth numbers, so please keep expectations in check.  Okay, enough of that.  He’s going to be awesome!!!!! (Extra exclamation marks were texted in by my twelve year old niece.)  2010 Projections:  85/18/70/.275/20

38. Nolan Reimold – Has 10 steal speed, 25 homer power, should hit around .290… Holy crap, Markakis is a Russian nesting doll and inside him is Reimold!  (For further reading on my Reimold fantasy.)  2010 Projections:  85/25/95/.290/10

39. Garrett Jones -  Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball post.  2010 Projections:  65/25/80/.255/12

40. Michael Bourn – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Pierre.  I call this tier, “SAGNOF!”  As for Bourn, see tier name.  2010 Projections:  100/4/40/.270/55

There will be a top 60 outfielder post, but here’s four names on the top 40 outfielders for 2010 fantasy baseball that I need to point out because you can’t just end a SAGNOF tier without these guys:

40 1/5. Nyjer Morgan – See Bourn, Michael or 1/3 of an inch above.  2010 Projections:  105/4/45/.300/45

40 2/5. Rajai Davis – Too many speed schmohawks and not enough space.  2010 Projections:  80/4/40/.290/50

40 3/5. Julio Borbon – Portmanteau’ing Bourn, Morgan, Rajai, Borbon and Pierre and you get Mijerio Pierogies.  The one Hispanic man in all of Poland.  (Further reading on the Borbon fantasy.)  2010 Projections:  90/8/40/.300/40

40 4/5. Juan Pierre – He’s not French, but he can make love to your face with his steals.  2010 Projections:  95/1/40/.300/45

Julio Borbon can steal 40-plus bases for your 2010 fantasy baseball team.  I really shouldn’t even have to say more.  And a lot of you probably won’t even read what else I write, especially the readers that found this because they searched Google for “Borbon fantasy” after hallucinations from drinking too much Wild Turkey.  Alas, I shall continue.  Last year, Julio Borbon hit .312 in 157 ABs.  As I tell the ladies, that seems like a small sample size but it’s not.  He should be in the .300 range in 2010.  Next, he stole 19 bases in more or less two months of full duty.  So 40 bases really isn’t that much of a long shot.  Emilio Bonifacio’s April 2009 comes to mind when I think of Borbon.  Borbon might steal 10 bases in April alone and be owned in all but the shallowest of ESPN leagues that are already abandoned.  (Don’t worry, Bonifacio’s May through September doesn’t come to mind.)  So Borbon’s SAGNOF!, got it.  But why is Julio Borbon a 2010 fantasy baseball sleeper?

Ellsbury, who’s being drafted around the 3rd round, is a 10 homer, 50 steal threat.  (Yes, he stole 70 bases last year, but we shouldn’t count on 70 bases from anyone.)  Borbon hit 4 homers in 46 games last year.  His minor league ground ball and fly ball rates were on par with his short time in the majors.  So he can get 8-10 homers next year.  As far as I’m concerned, that’s not exactly a termite-infested limb considering his home park.  If he hits 12 homers, I wouldn’t be shocked.  (At 15 homers, I’d consider notifying Snooki that Borbon might be a juice head.  Or sipping from the Ron Ron Juice.)  So a guy who can go 10/40 and is being drafted in the final rounds versus a 10/50 guy who’s going in the 3rd round?  Done, I’m getting drunk on Borbon.

Yesterday, Rafael Furcal went 2-for-4 with a steal.  I thought Furcal was overvalued in the preseason because I thought he was more fragile than Alanis after a breakup.  Well, he’s actually played the whole season, albeit terribly.  He’s been on base over 200 times.  He has 10 steals with 6 times caught.  Who gave him Kirk Gibson’s fist-pumping legs for five months?  But, and here’s the head turner, he has 4 steals in the last seven games.  Not sure what happened to Furcal the first 95% of the season, 10 steals used to be a good month for him.  Maybe he’s a Latin 31.  But never us mind, he’s hot right now.  If he was dropped anywhere, he’s currently hitting over .500 in the last week with 4 steals.  Go fur it!  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Bobby Jenks – I might’ve misspoke when I said Linebrink would be the closer.  Grey wrong?  Get outta here this instant! Yeah, I know, random italicized voice, the guy who traded for Jose Reyes in one league in May being wrong is crazy.  I originally said Linebrink because of how Ozzie had used him recently.  But Linebrink has been awful.  No disputing that.  Then again, I don’t think Matt Thornton’s going to suddenly become Franklin Morales of last week.  Either way, I don’t think this is a great situation for saves.  Okay, correction done.

Jermaine Dye – 2 HRs yesterday as he came down with a case of Furcalitis, a disease that boosts one’s stats when games no longer matter.

Michael Aubrey – HR yesterday.  I also really love him on Real Estate Intervention.

Matt Wieters – Hit another homer yesterday.  Member all that (lack of) work he did over the summer to make him underrated next year?  Yeah, he’s been outta his mind recently.  I knew it would happen eventually, I was kinda hoping eventually was next April.

Travis Snider – HR yesterday.  4 for his last 7, but it was against Orioles pitching and, as I tell my girlfriend, beware the small sample size.

Francisco Liriano – Should start against the Royals on Sunday.  He’ll get to face Greinke.  Sometimes it just ain’t your year.

Carlos Guillen – 3-for-4, 4 RBIs with 2 HRs yesterday.  With the way he’s played since returning from injury, he should sit out two months every year.  Oh, wait, he does.

Chad Billingsley – 6 IP, 3 ER, 9 Ks vs. the Nats.  I think they call this a tune-up for the playoffs.  Considering how broken down he’s been lately, they would be right.

Ryan Zimmerman – Hit his 31st homer yesterday and so did Miguel Cabrera.  I mention that for symmetry and because, other than the average, Zimmerman’s been just as valuable.

Drew Stubbs – 2-for-6, 2 steals.  What, no homers?

Homer Bailey – 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 baserunners, 0 Ks.  Blech, but he got the win.  I’m gonna have to get over not liking him because I think I’ll probably own him in some leagues next year.

Jonathan Sanchez – 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 9 Ks.  I pegged him as a borderline starter to take a gamble on for yesterday, along with Homer Bailey.

Randy Choate – Got the save yesterday.  So that’s who the closer is!  Choate came in to get two lefties and a righty (which turned into two righties and a lefty – Wakamatsu is a magician!)

Wade Davis – 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 Ks.  He gets Baltimore and supposedly the last start of the year vs. the Yankees, which will be the B lineup.  And there is no A lineup on the Orioles.

Gaby Sanchez – HR yesterday.  (S)He’s a decent name to look at in deep NL-Only keepers.  Keepers only though, (s)he’s not playing much at all right now.

Tim Hudson – 6 IP, 2 ER, 11 baserunners as he tied his owners to the WHIPping post.  As someone who watched 75% of this game, Hudson looked terrible.  Got very lucky, even with Kelly Johnson mucking up a double play ball.

Chris Narveson – 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 10 Ks.  Anyone who’s read this blog for even a short period of time knows I got excited when I saw 10 Ks in under 6 innings.  Unfortunately, he gets the Rockies in Coors next time out so there’s nothing to see here.

Bud Norris – 6 IP, 0 ER.  Nice, but in the same boat as Narveson with a tough next matchup (@Philly).

Julio Borbon – Stole his 17th base yesterday in only 119 ABs.  I have a feeling someone’s value is going to be inflated next year.

Brad Lidge – 2/3 IP, 2 ER and his 11th blown save.  Imagine if Scioscia managed the Phillies.  Lidge would be in the Phanatic costume doing belly flops during rain delays.

Rich Harden – Now the Cubs are saying he may get shut down.  Yeah, I said that last week.  Read the blog, doode!

Milton Bradley – Has a new game, Pin The Blame On The Cubbies.

Tim Lincecum missed yesterday’s start vs. the Padres (there goes that 14 K start) and gave way to the Giants big-time rookie pitching prospect, Madison Bumgarner.  Lincecum should be back by this weekend.  A detailed Madison Bumgarner outlook can be found where it says, “Madison Bumgarner outlook.”  (Yeah, still haven’t figured out how to naturally link to something.  I feel like Buzz Bissinger.  Bleh!  What are these things you call links?  Bleh! Actually, that sounds more like The Count.)  So one in for Mad-Bum, and no harm done.  5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 Ks.  I think he can supplant Joe Martinez in the rotation.  He sure as heckfire has a better name… Go with Jose at least, geez.  Bumgarner will have value in all leagues down the stretch if he has a rotation spot.  He’s risky, but in the NL West and with his stuff, well worth a look in mixed leagues.  In keepers, pursue him aggressively.  He’s real and he’s spectacular.  I expect he’ll take the David Price route next year.  Start in the minors, then get the call in June.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Brad Lidge – Prior to getting removed from a save situation for Madson, Manuel said that Lidge will remain the Phils closer.  HA!!!  Sorry.  Lidge hasn’t been a closer in three months.  Are they freakin’ kidding me?  Lidge is pitching like he’s wearing contacts that bear Pujols’s face.  Please, someone tie Lidge to a bed and break his ankles to put him out of his misery.

Alex Gordon – He returns from his Triple-A stint.  A lot has been made of his trip to the minors.  (Because of the minors stint, he’ll be under contract through 2013.)  People are saying the Royals pulled a low move to delay free agency.  Um, and Gordon’s done something to stay in the majors?  At this rate, he may not be a major leaguer by 2013.  Though, February Grey still will probably find a way to talk him up for next year.

Pedro Martinez – 6 2/3 IP, 3 ER.  Not great vs. the Nats, but I would’ve taken it over the roofie-ing I took from Carlos Torres.  Don’t worry, I’ll get to that.

Raul Ibanez – 3-for-4 with 2 HRs yesterday.  I swear, after three months of homer sobriety from Ibanez, I was a twitch away from pulling the trigger on him.  Now, he’s hot.  Someone was looking out for me.  They obviously didn’t care enough to warn me about Carlos Torres.  Fantasy baseball, because every day stress is not enough.

Carlos Torres – 2/3 IP, 5 ER vs. the A’s.  I hate you, Carlos Torres.  I swore off rookie pitchers earlier this year because of a start by Hochevar vs. the A’s.  Why do the A’s hate me?  Someone, help!  I was roofied and I’m hemorrhaging from the A’s.

Julio Borbon – 2 HRs yesterday and a steal.  Someone’s been talking to Drew Stubbs.

Elvis Andrus – 2 steals yesterday.  If you need steals, maybe he’s running now, cause he hadn’t been.

Frank Francisco – 1 IP, 2 ER.  Kazaam!

Nick Swisher – 2 HRs yesterday.  Hitting over .300 in the last seven games with 3 homers.

Evan Longoria – Has 5 homers in the last 8 games and is hitting near .500 in his last seven games.  H2H teams rostering Longoria tip their caps.

Garrett Jones – Hit his 19th homer yesterday.  If I didn’t see it myself, I wouldn’t have believed it, but after Robot Jones hit his homer, he elevated five inches off the ground to allow wheels to slide out from his cleats and he rolled around the bases.

Dustin Pedroia – This might be Scrappy Doo’s first appearance in a daily roundup this year.  Well, anyway, he hit two homers yesterday against the Orioles’ Double-A pitching.

Felix Pie – 0-for-3, and 2 for his last 13.  I think he’s back to being lame.

Carlos Beltran – Returned with a 1-for-4.  Now he has three weeks to hit 35 homers and steal 20 bases.  Or if he just outproduced Angel Pagan, that would be nice, too.

Cameron Maybin – You’re going to hear about every positive thing he does until next year.  Yesterday, he hit a homer.

Nate McLouth – Hit his 2nd homer since he returned.  This is a hunch, but I think he realizes he has three weeks to make his season’s stats look somewhat palatable.

Manny Parra – Left the game with neck spasms.  Manny, you don’t watch the ball off the bat.  That’s how you get a crick in your neck.

Mat Gamel – Was recalled.  But McGehee’s got the corner locked down like Marlo Stanfield.

Corey Hart – Is back from the DL.  He says he wants to steal bases.  I have no idea if he’s lying.  I couldn’t see his eyes through his sunglasses.

Chris Davis – 3-for-4 with a HR in yesterday’s nightcap.  In the, uh, daycap he went 0-for-5.

Michael Brantley – He’s stealing bases.  You know you wanna.  Go ahead, pick him up.

Franklin Gutierrez – Hit his 16th homer yesterday.  The Big FraGu’s having a better year than Carlos Beltran, Grady Sizemore and Josh Hamilton.  Cust kayin’.

Matt Murton – Called up by the Rockies.  Score this a victory for the National Association for the Advancement of Gingy People.  But the NAAGP won’t rest until Murton gets playing time, so there will be a lot of late nights for them.

J.A. Happ – His strained oblique is still vaguely hurting and will miss another start.

Jeff Baker – The pride of Bad Kissingen, West Germany went 3-for-4 yesterday as he hits near .400 in the last week.

Jake Fox – Piniella hates him.  Bobby Scales?  Sam Fuld?  They sound like the bassist and drummer for the Cubs’ heavy metal band, Quite The Riot.