Let’s just assume Joe Mauer hits 25 HRs, though no one south of the Arctic Circle has him projected for more than 18.  And even some less optimistic Eskimos have him down for only 20.  Let’s also assume after curing the swine (<–which is prosciutto, I believe), he hits .330.  Let’s also chuck in 80 Runs and 80 RBIs, which seems Brobdingnagian (Word of the Day!) considering time already missed.  I think these are all preposterous numbers considering his back problems, but let’s suspend disbelief.  So Mauer still has 17 more homers, a great average and 60 some-odd Runs/RBIs in him.  In the first half of last year, Doumit hit 11 homers with 42 Runs and 29 RBIs, while batting .329.  Those numbers are in 207 ABs.  He can easily replicate those numbers when he returns.  So if you trade Mauer for, say, an outfielder who still has 30 HRs in his bat (Quentin) or a pitcher (Hamels) or a corner guy (Youkilis) and grab a random schmohawk catcher of waivers, you’re walking out of the trade in good shape.

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Ohmigod, Grey’s totally going against Rudy’s risky pitcher post?  They are so fighting.  I hope Rudy rips off Grey’s stache.  $5 says it’s not real. Uh-hum.  I can hear you, random italicized voice.  I’m actually typing you!  My bad. So, yes, Jon Lester is a risky pitcher.  But at this point, he’s also a buy.  His ERA’s 6.31.  That’s ridunkiculous from where it should be.  He’s pitching well (minus some ill-timed long balls), tremendous K-rate, solid walk rate.  A pitcher who is pitching well and has a 6.31 ERA is such a crazy buy, that I wouldn’t be surprised if his owners weren’t even selling.  But, on the other hand, they’re smarting from his earned runs.  They may see LaTroy Hawkins or Jason Bartlett and be like, “Hey, Lester’s killing me, why not take a guy that at least has been good?”  That’s why you prey on those suckas.  This is why you have brass balls and you just chucked one at your mean lady neighbor who keeps bugging you when you turn the Dropkick Murphys to eleven and put it on repeat.  I’m a sailor peg!!!  And I lost my leg!!!  I love that song.  Wait, what was I saying?  Oh, yeah.  Lester — get him, within reason.  Anyway, here’s some more players to Buy and Sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Justin Duchscherer – If he’s on waivers and you can stash him on your DL, stash away.

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In this month’s closer look, let’s discuss some closer trading strategy.  As I mentioned the other day, I traded Street and some other closer for Haren.  This might’ve put me at a disadvantage for saves.  Now you’re probably thinking what the eff?  This doode doesn’t even know who he traded or if it put his team at a disadvantage for saves.  Well, that’s the whole point.  Saves are the easiest commodity to acquire on waivers.  Just last month, 10 closers lost their jobs, even if just temporarily.  10 out of 30 closers.  So, frankly, I don’t care if I’m trading Qualls, Bell or schmohawk closer behind door number 3.  Are some of these guys more reliable than others?  Sure, but that doesn’t mean Jenks couldn’t have a meltdown tomorrow.  They’re just closers.  As for not knowing if I’m at a disadvantage, it’s real early and plenty more saves will come into the league.  Not that many more Harens are coming into the league.  Anyway, here’s all of the closers for your fantasy baseball team, as of right now:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad?

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Royals prospect Luke Hochevar was called up yesterday to replace Sidney Ponson in the rotation.  But he’s Aruba’s favorite son!  You know who I feel bad for?  The Royals caterer.  With Ponson out of the rotation, who’s going to eat that side of cow he ordered?  Hochevar has been lights out so far in the minors with a .90 ERA, .95 WHIP and 5-0.  His 30 Ks in 40 innings is solid, not quite crazysexycool.   He doesn’t seem like the kind of pitcher that is going to dominate like, say, a Volquez last year.  Fortunately, he’s cut his walks this year.  As I said with Cecil two weeks ago, you pickup Hochevar to see if dominates.  Cause if he does dominate, people will start going gaga goo-goo for him and then you can flip him.  Or you take the rookie pitcher’s thunder, slide it next to your lightning and make it rain.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Joakim Soria – Went to the DL.  Juan Cruz will fill-in mostly, with Jamey Wright maybe seeing the occasional chance.  You’re thinking, I’m not bothering with Cruz, Soria will come back and be fine.  Who cares if he comes back and he’s fine?  Cruz may take the job and hold it for the next two months while accumulating 15 saves.  Or maybe Soria returns fine in a week.  All I know is Soria has said his sore shoulder dates back to WBC (Nice, Selig!) so maybe he doesn’t recover that quickly.  Add Cruz, ask questions later.

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Hey, Matt Holliday finally hit a homer!  Please don’t tell me this is gonna be negative! Sorry, random italicized voice.  If you look at Holliday’s peripheral numbers you would see a guy that is more or less in line with his norms.  Now here’s the real kick in the nads.  He’s K’ing and walking less.  So what do I take away from that?  Trouble.  To me this means, Holliday is seeing more pitches to hit because AL pitchers haven’t been worried about him and rather than making them pay, Holliday’s putting the ball into play in the form of a flyout or groundout.  He’s hitting a bit fewer line drives than normal so that means his average may go up a bit, but I don’t think we see the .330 we were accustomed to in Colorado.  Now that he hit a homer, see if you can convince someone Holliday’s back from, uh, holiday.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Matt Garza – 7 2/3 IP, 2 baserunners.  Sonavabench!  This is the problem with Garza.  He instills so little confidence.  We’ll see what he does next time out.  I got suspicions.

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