Fantasy Baseball Advice

You know what burns me up?  Fire? Yes, random italicized voice, but something else too.  Three weeks ago, ESPN threw out trash like this, “Hamels could be one of the top-5 starters in most leagues now that questions about his durability and moxie have passed. Invest with confidence.”  Three weeks ago?!  Now, today they say, “Given (Hamels’s) injury history and the combination of an increased workload and long season, Hamels has a significant amount of risk when you consider his lofty place among the elite starting pitchers on the draft board this spring.”  That’s so annoying.  Almost as annoying as Bud Selig now getting upset at people who took steroids.  Like you didn’t know, Bud.  C’mon!  The other day I talked with Rudy — we talk, ya’ll! — and I was saying to him there’s one pitcher I probably won’t own this year.  That’s Cole Hamels.  The innings increase worried me.  The K/9 dropping in 2008 had me a bit buggered.  I liked that he gave up less home runs, but it wasn’t enough.  I wouldn’t own him.  On February 1st, I said, “(Even considering the good things about Hamels, it) does not mean he’ll be on any of my teams in 2009.”  In my top 100 post, I wrote, “Even Philly phans are worried about the extra innings. “  And that’s me quoting and quoting and linking to myself!  Now there’s word of Hamels having a sore elbow.  This is bad news.  I can’t stress this enough.  Okay, maybe I could’ve cap that last sentence, but you don’t need me to yell at you, do you?  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in spring training for fantasy baseball:

J.R. Towles – There goes that opp.  Pudge signed a one year deal with the Astros.  Wait, what about Humberto Something Or Other?!  He had a future, I tell ya.

Ivan Rodriguez – Do all the kids out there know Pudge isn’t meant to be an ironic nickname?  Just because the Astros signed this schmohawk doesn’t mean you should.  Ever.  He’s C to the Rap.

Ryan Braun – Same injury that slowed in September has returned.  I think he’ll be fine, but it’s enough to knock him below Miggy and Sizemore on your draft sheets.  Wait, I already him after them on my top 100.  Hey, I’m a fortune teller!

Manny Ramirez – Aggravating his hamstring while aggravating his owners.  He’ll play fine when he wants to.  Read:  July, it has a great ending.

Matt Lindstrom – Seriously, get on the Leo Nunez bandwagon before someone else does.  You think this is nothing, but you thought it was nothing when Jon Rauch replaced Chad Cordero last year.

Justin Duchscherer – Let’s see if we got this right, Dooksheer is hurt?  No way!  I think he might start 5 games all year.  I’m not exaggerating.  I said this more or less over a month ago in the top 60 starters post.  Berry might have ESPN, but I got ESP.  Natch!

Vernon Wells – Good ol’ VW thinks he’ll be ready on Opening Day.  Here’s what he’ll say sometime around May 15th, “It’s just a mild strain.  I’ll be back in 15 days.”  Here’s what he’ll say two weeks after that, “It’s not healing how I would’ve hoped.  I think I should be back by the All-Star Break.”  After the All-Star Break, Ricciardi goes on record with, “We hope to have Vernon back by August.”  In August, Vernon returns for a final solid month before pulling his oblique.

Joey Devine – Devine’s nursing something… Not a baby giraffe from what I can gather.  Brad Ziegler seems to have this locked up for Opening Day.

Huston Street/Manny Corpas – It may come down to the final days to decide the closer.  I think Corpas ends up with more saves on the year because Street will get injured even if he secures the job.  In other news, Billy Beane has some AIG stock he’s trying to unload.

Jeff Samardzija – He’s done with that whole starting business.  Until Harden gets hurt.  May!  On the for realz, I wouldn’t own Samardzija in any league.  Not right now at least.

Shawn Hill – Like a two year old’s poo, Hill’s looking solid so far.  I’m telling you, if he can stay healthy he could be a huge sleeper.  But you do what you do.  What, I’m gonna beg?  Nah, Charlie.  Not me.

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2009 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2009 Astros Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of Crawfish Boxes.

1) I see Wandy Rodriguez for 2009 and I think underrated breakout.  Most people read that and think, “Grey’s drinking again.”  What do you think?

Wandy is the proverbial axis on which the Astros’ 2009 season spins. Fortunately, I agree with you that he’s going to have a breakout-type season. Over the course of his career, Wandy’s ERA has dropped, while his strikeout and walk numbers have improved as well. That’s pretty good indication that the ERA improvements aren’t due to luck, but rather improved skill. Last season, Rodriguez was tremendous in 14 starts at home, compiling an ERA of 2.99, with a K:BB rate of nearly 4.00. Transferring his home success to road starts would be a great way to begin his rise to the upper echelons of starting pitchers. As always, health is issue number one with Wandy. The projectors don’t have much confidence in Rodriguez’ ability to pitch the entire season (none see him making 30 starts). If he is somehow able to defy the experts, his innings should be among the most effective in the NL.

2) A) J.R. Towles will fulfill the promise of 2008 in 2009.  B) No one can fill the void left by Brad Ausmus.  A or B and why?

Humberto Quintero appears to be the front runner to begin the season as the starting catcher, and…

J.R. Towles is in a battle with Lou Palmisano to make the major league roster. It appears that Towles’ future lies somewhere between his 2007 September, and his disastrous 2008 season (obviously).  I think the thing that a lot of people forget is that Towles pretty much skipped AAA when he was anointed the starting catcher prior to 2008.  He had a fairly strong showing at AAA Round Rock (.304/.370/.500) so I think he’s still got in him to fulfill some of that promise.  Whether he gets an opportunity to do that will depend largely on how Palmisano performs, because Assistant GM Bobby Heck drafted him when Heck was with the Brewers and will likely be loath to send him back if he’s not on the 25 man roster.

3) Usually, I throw in a question about prospects, but my depth charts seem to have a missing space where the Astros impact rookies for 2009 is supposed to be.  Is there anyone who is not on people’s radars that has a chance to break camp and make an impact with the club in 2009?

The Astros are in an unenviable position. Our aging roster is matched by a farm system that is nearly barren of impact talent at highest levels of the minor leagues. The minor leaguer who seems to have the best opportunity to break camp as a major leaguer is middle infielder Edwin Maysonet, a 27 year old middle infield prospect (if you can be a prospect at 27?). This article details the competition between Maysonet and another prospect, Tommy Manzella, to be Miguel Tejada’s backup at shortstop. Neither has extremely impressive statistics, but such is the plight of the 2009 Astros. Drew Sutton (2B/SS), Chris Johnson (3B) and Bud Norris (RP) are three more prospects to keep an eye on this season. Johnson smacked a home run in his spring debut, while Norris and Sutton were studly in the Arizona Fall League. Sutton slugged .611 in 108 ABs this past fall, while Norris’ 1.89 ERA in 20 IP (anchored by a 2.74 K:BB and a 9.45 K/9) was the cherry on top of a stellar AA season.

4) Can Tejada show a glimpse of his steroids glory in 2009?

Will Miguel Tejada perform like the perennial MVP candidate that he was in the early 2000s? No. Will Miguel Tejada perform like an above average shortstop, with better defensive range than people give him credit for? Yes. Miggy still swings at too many bad balls, and doesn’t have near the power he once did, but he should improve upon a SLG% of .415 in 2008. I think that this will be especially true if the “Does Miguel Tejada need more rest?” conundrum is ameliorated by giving him a few more off days. We looked into that a little bit this off season, and rest did seem to indicate better SLG. Couple that with a BA of above .280, and Tejada is still a top ten shortstop.

5) For so many years, the Astros had the Killer B’s with Biggio and Bagwell.  Now they have Berkman and Oswalt, which is the Killer B.O. or the Killer O.B.  Neither connotes excitement.  Give me an acronym that best expresses your 2009 Astros.

A
A
R
P

Yes, that AARP.

Brandon Morrow is out indefinitely due to forearm soreness.  Punt!  I really liked Morrow going into this season.  There’s something to a reliever being converted to a starter in their first year.  They just get up for the challenge or something.  Whatever the case may be, Brandon doesn’t seem up for the challenge any morrow.  You don’t want to deal with this meshugas.  If it’s Ervin Santana, then you draft him later and hold out some hope.  If it’s a 4th to 5th starter (Morrow), why bother?  You wanna give to charity, the March of Dimes could use your help.  Or Jerry Lewis.  Anyway, here’s some other things I’ve seen so far in spring training regarding fantasy baseball:

Joe Mauer – He’s injured.  If I were a spiteful person, I would say it serves you right for drafting Mauer.  Not sure why anyone drafts this guy, but he’s struggling with a bulging disk — no, that’s not like when you tried to jam a CD into your radio and one was already there.  He’s not going to steal any bases this year, so you’re basically drafting a no-speed Polanco at catcher in the first 8 rounds.  Eh, you do what you do.  I’m done getting aggravated.

Manny Corpas – Would it surprise you to hear Huston Street is struggling with injuries and Corpas now can take over the closer’s role?  If it would surprise you, welcome to baseball.  See Wikipedia for further information.

Ryan Spilborghs – He’s pulling away in the race for the Rockies leadoff spot.

Tyler Walker – Might still be the answer for, “Who will get more than 15 saves this year for the Mariners?”

Jose Reyes – Will again be batting leadoff.  And this is the number one reason why I don’t put too much stock into spring training news.

Gaby Sanchez – He (she?) is doing nothing to win the 1st base job.  Bodes well for McPherson.

Chris Duncan – He’s winning an OF job for Saint Louie.  Now if he can just avoid his brother’s high-fives.

J.R. Towles – He took my vote of confidence in the catchers to target post last week and spat in its face.  He’s doing everything to lose the job.

Chipper Jones – Injured himself in the WBC.  And taco diarrhea still burns.

I’m not going to point out Brian McCann or Mauer or any other catchers you or your leaguemates will be looking at in the first 10 rounds.  Here are some catchers that I will be targeting at my 2009 fantasy drafts after the top options are gone.  I’m also not going to get into the strategy of punting catchers.  Been there, half-drunkenly wrote that.  Click on the player’s name where applicable to  read more and see their 2009 projections.  This is a supplement to the top 20 catchers of 2009 fantasy baseball.  Anyway, here’s some catchers to target for 2009 fantasy baseball:

Pablo Sandoval – I have his 2009 projections as 60/14/65/.300.  I think he can get to 17+ home runs without losing anything on the average side.  He’s not as appealing to me as a 3rd baseman or a swimsuit model.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia – Salty will see time at 1st base, DH and catcher.  He’s going after some stankworths as Inge, Pierzynski and Suzuki.

Taylor Teagarden – Even with Saltymochachino standing in his way I like him to get enough ABs to be worthwhile.  Teagarden is better with the glove and Blalock will get injured.

Chris Iannetta – Iannetta comes from a long line of Italian-American catchers, Napoli, Torre, Cannoli, Berra, Girardi, Piazza and Sal Falsano.  Mamma mia!  Now throwa chest protector ona Nicky Punto.

Jesus Flores – Flores para los muertes! Flores! Para los muertes!  Some pop, low average.

Jeff Clement – Great late flier for power.  If you were to take someone like Pierzynski over Clement, you deserve to lose your league.  Sorry, sometimes the truth stings.  You rub it with some lying-to-yourself ointment.

J.R. Towles – In 2008, I was off him like black off rice, but I haven’t mentioned him much, if at all, in 2009.  You just need to throw out 2008.  Pretend like it never happened.  Or pretend like the only part that happened was when he hit .304 in almost 50 games after his callback from the minors.   He has speed and some slight power.  The absolute best case scenario seems to be Russell Martin.  In the so-late-it-doesn’t-matter-anymore round, you turn your head to the East and you see no catchers by your side.  Then like JT accompanying TI, you turn your head to the West, still nobody in sight.  So you turn your head to the North, swallow that pill that they call pride and draft Towles.

Note: Besides providing advice and news on fantasy baseball, we at Razzball created and now sponsor a game where the goal is to manage a team and compile the worst stats.  These Historical Spotlights honor those players who would’ve excelled in such a format.   See here for more info. See here for the summary of the inaugural 2008 season.

True love is rare.  True love means not just accepting the good and the bad – it means never even thinking to judge.  True love is a warm embrace – like a passionate wet kiss you don’t want to end, a steamy mug of cocoa that you don’t want to stop drinking, a fever that you never want to leave your system….

True love is what Houston Astros owner Drayton McLane Jr. feels for our Razzball Historical Spotlight inductee Brad Ausmus.

Brad Ausmus (an Americanized version of the popular German surname Ahsmünch) is a hard man not to love – especially if you were a Jewish mother with a single daughter.  A good Jewish boy out of Connecticut, graduated from Dartmouth, a successful professional…(you could do worse…)

He began his career in the Yankee farm system and was plucked from their roster in the 1992 expansion draft (along with Charlie Hayes and Carl Everett) for the Rockies and Marlins.  After a couple of years on the Padres and Tigers, he was part of part of possibly the most Razztastic trade ever -  an 8 person trade b/w the Tigers and Astros that included Ausmus and 2 other Razzball Spotlight members (Jose Lima, Brian L Hunter).  It was as if Detroit traded GM and Chrysler to Houston for Enron.

Ausmus’ initial 2 year stint (1997-1998) in Houston resulted in okay hitting and two first round playoff losses.  When Ausmus wasn’t hitting for the collar, he and his open collar hit on Houston girls.

In what McLane would later say was “The biggest mistake of my life”, the Astros found the trade receipt and returned Ausmus to Detroit.  Ausmus made the All-Star game in 1999 with Detroit – the benefits of playing for a crappy team and rules requiring each team has at least one representative.  The Astros managed to make the playoffs in 1999 only to lose again in the 1st round.

In 2001, McLane listened to his heart and re-traded for Ausmus.  The trade came just in time as Ausmus was set to embark on a Razztastic eight season hitting stretch during which he plumbed levels that had never been plumbed before.  Now if you’re the type that thinks Ausmus is the Bossmus (i know at least one), you’re probably thinking, “Was Ausmus really any worse a hitter than all those light-hitting catchers I grew up with?”  Well, let’s look at the stats…

The best way to compare vs. previous eras is to use the OPS+ metric which adds OBP and SLG then factors in league and park averages.  Ausmus’s 2001 (57), 2003 (55), 2004 (63) and 2006 (54) mark the 3rd, 4th, 15th, and 7th lowest OPS+ seasons by any catcher with 448+ plate appearances since 1930.  No other catcher even managed two seasons in their career that were as bad as this crappershop quartet Ausmus produced in a six year period.  In 2002, he became the 2nd player in the last 100+ years to hit into at least 30 double plays and not hit 30 extra base hits.  He managed the GIDP>XBH feat again in 2006 with 21 GIDP to 19 XBH.

When asked to pack Ausmus’ ‘tools of ignorance’, the equipment guys would pack his bats instead of his catching equipment.  His hitting was so cartoonish that opposing pitchers would call the Astro hitter “Rad Rausmus”.  Tony LaRussa laid awake at night wondering if he coached Ausmus whether he’d hit him 9th and let the pitcher hit 8th or would he keep Ausmus 8th and have him bunt and let the pitchers swing away.  But all the while, the Astros kept penciling his name in the lineup card – praising him for everything from his defense to his handling of his pitchers to the pristine condition of his game-used bats.

Starting in 2007, the Astros realized that they couldn’t count on Ausmus (then 38) to forfeit the 8th spot in the lineup forever.  Ausmus took Eric Munson under his wing in 2007 but Munson’s 74 OPS+ proved too competent and he was promptly waived at the end of the year.  Ausmus graciously took a backup role to J.R. Towles in 2008 and watched as Towles exploded onto the Razzball scene with an otherworldly .137 AVG and 34 OPS+ in 146 ABs.

While Ausmus maintained his torpid streak of hitting in 2007-2008 despite additional rest and more favorable matchups, he could see the writing on the wall.  He realized the only way he could repay the love that McLane and the Astros showed him was to heed Sting’s advice and set them free.  Carlos Lee even offered to pay his salary but Ausmus refused, stating “It’s certainly flattering but I had an unprecedented 8 year run here.  My job is done.  Plus, as Carlos’s accountant, I had to advise against it.”

Ausmus is currently trying to sign on with a Southern California team.  One would think his bat would fit in just perfectly with San Diego.  Until then, he’ll be hitting the waves – hopefully more successfully then his hitting of baseballs.

Brad Ausmus – Jewish Sports Hall of Fame honoree and now Razzball Historical Spotlight inductee.  You’ve made us so proud, bubelah!

Update:  Funny tribute video by the Astros for Ausmus.  Nice to see they have a sense of humor about this stuff.