The Cubs’ MLB-ready talent doesn’t extend too far beyond Anthony Rizzo and Brett Jackson. A few relief prospects and a backup catcher could crack the big league roster, but there aren’t a slew of guys here who are ready to contribute in the majors. Even so, Rizzo and Jackson alone are sufficient to generate fantasy buzz. And behind them, the Cubs have youthful types like Matt Szczur, Javier Baez and Dillon Maples.
Of all their additions this offseason, none is more important than Theo. The Cubs are finally setting smart, long-term goals through emphasizing scouting and player development. They’ve partnered with Bloomberg Sports, who will develop custom information systems and support data-driven decision-making. They’re dumping Major League dead weight and they’re building from within. They seem to be heading in the right direction.
Arizona Fall League Players – Mesa Solar Sox
Jeff Beliveau (LHP); Chris Carpenter (RHP); Andrew Cashner (RHP); Marcus Hatley (RHP); Trey McNutt (RHP); Junior Lake (SS); D.J. LeMahieu (2B); Josh Vitters (OF); Brett Jackson (OF)
Although Soriano and Byrd remain, it seems only a matter of time before one (or both) is shipped elsewhere, making room for Jackson in the Chicago outfield. Grey previews Jackson here. It’s a great write-up mostly because of the dong joke (dong jokes get me every time), but I tend to agree with the non-dong-related content. I just used the word “dong” four times while discussing Brett Jackson. That places me second all-time behind Phil Rogers.
Grey discusses Donkey Kong Jr.’s 2012 outlook here. Rizzo, of course, now has a new team, a new ballpark and new teammates. Long-term, the new environment certainly helps Rizzo. But for 2012, I don’t think much needs to be changed from Grey’s projection, although 25 homers is probably a fair assessment, now. Rizzo will likely begin 2012 in Iowa. Bryan LaHair will hold his place in Chicago in the meantime. I expect Rizzo up by midseason.
There’s a good chance he’ll serve as Geovany Soto’s backup in 2012. .238 ISO at Triple-A in 2011 reflects nice pop for a catcher, even in the PCL. Soto, like many other Cubs regulars, is a trade candidate and Castillo would step into a starting role should a trade occur. He’ll be worth adding across all formats if he’s ever getting regular AB’s.
I suspect that Theo will, at some point, be shopping Marmol. That is, if he isn’t already. And if the Cubs are so lucky to unload their closer, Dolis seems like a good candidate to take on the role, as his high 90s sinking fastball can be utterly unhittable. He’ll likely start 2012 at Triple-A where he’ll work on secondary pitches and overall command, but he’ll be up before long.
Carpenter is a power righty who projects as a setup man. When his command is with him, he’s tough to hit, but he has struggled in that regard. Carpenter is pretty much a two-pitch guy with a high 90s fastball and high 80s slider. He should be ready to join the Cubs bullpen full-time in 2012.
Vitters moderate improvement at Double-A in 2011, slashing .283/.322/.448. But it’s still hardly the production that the Cubs would like to see out of their 3rd overall pick in 2007. At just 22, there is still time for him to polish his tools and start progressing, but he’ll need to begin doing so quickly.
McNutt struggled at Tennessee in 2011 and is probably in for a return to Double-A in 2012. For a power pitcher with a plus fastball and plus curve, it’s concerning that his strikeout ratios aren’t at all impressive (6.2 K/9 in 2011). A prospect with this kind of stuff shouldn’t be ignored, however. If he can improve his command, the ratios will fall in line and he could find himself pitching at Wrigley come September.
Jackson’s had a rough couple of years at Triple-A, but the Cubs haven’t yet lost faith. An initiative of Epstein’s has been to glean his rotation from a hoard of Major League-caliber pitching. Jackson still has the stuff to be included in that hoard.
The top 50 fantasy baseball prospects list aims to provide a list solely for fantasy baseball purposes. Due to fantasy baseball’s immediacy of statistical production, players are not necessarily ranked based on tools or projections far into the future, but instead, current production. Aspects taken into consideration are fantasy baseball’s positional scarcity, Razzball philosophies, scouting reports and personal biases. Please keep in mind that this is published before the end of the 2011 season. Therefore, it is highly possible that some rookies on this list may lose their rookie eligibility (e.g. Kyle Seager), others who were expected to continue to acquire enough experience by the end of the season who may not (e.g. Brett Lawrie). Revision in the late off-season shall occur. There are highly touted names omitted from the Top 50 list that some might believe warrant a ranking that don’t fall into the prior caveat(s). Before lamenting, please check the Honorable Mention section. The most notable omissions are either blocked, provide more real world baseball value, need to repeat performance because of their pedigree, have GM’s avoiding Super-2 status or are rebounding from injuries. The signings in the upcoming weeks of the offseason and Spring Training could cause many players to rise or fall. Disputes, inquiries and general feedback is welcomed and encouraged. To be included, I used MLB eligibility requirements — less than 130 ABs or 50 IP, though I’ve made a few exceptions where I felt it was warranted. See Top 50 Fantasy Prospects for 2012, Part I for the complete list.
26. Trevor Bauer – RHP (SP) – ARI: Considered MLB-ready outta the gate when drafted in June 2011. Keith Law’s pre-draft scouting report indicates, “[His] fastball-curveball combination is [...] big league-caliber … shown he can get deep into games with regularity despite the lack of prototypical physicality. His heavy college workload — topping 130 pitches in the majority of his starts this spring [2011] … [workload] could impact whether he helps the Arizona Diamondbacks this season or what role in which that would come.” He has a plus-fastball sits between 92 to 95 MPH with good life and a 12-to-6 plus-curveball. His changeup needs work. Control and command is spotty and inconsistent, typically derived from overthrowing. Mechanically the only true concern is him locking his left knee upon delivery of the baseball. There is concern of possible knee injuries in the future. Beyond this quibble, his stuff is not in question, it is his combination of control and command, being overworked in college, and possible mechanically driven medical concern.
27. Martin Perez – LHP (SP) – TEX: Texas is loaded at pitcher, but you can never have enough young arms. Perez followed up a poor 2010 in Double-A with improved numbers across the board at Double-A but a regression in production when promoted to Triple-A. I see a midseason call-up. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.
28. Garrett Richards – LHP (SP) – ATL: The Angels gave Richards two spot starts in 2011 in which he struggled. Prior to 2011 and before reaching more advanced hitters (read: before Double-A), he was able to produce high strikeout rates. In 2011, at Double-A, Richards strikeout rates plummeted from mid-9 K/9 to 6.5 K/9. Projects as a mid-rotation starter who pitches to contact or a power reliever.
29. Zack Cox – 3B – St.L: David Freese is not the answer for the Cardinals at third base. The 22-year-old Cox had an excellent 2011 season. In 344 Double-A at-bats he slashed .294/.357/.436 with 29 XBH (10 Hr) and a 69:29 K:BB ratio. Is considered a “gifted hitter with strength and strike-zone awareness.” Offensively reminds me of Ryan Zimmerman.
30. Kyle Seager – 2B/3B – SEA: By the end of the season, his rookie eligibility may be void. The Mariners hot-corner hasn’t been the same since Adrian Beltre left. Seager has the flexibility to play multiple positions. Barring an injury, would get the nod over Alex Liddi at this point. Seager has shown to be of average power – gap mostly – produces a decent average and the occasional stolen base.
31. Eric Surkamp – LHP (SP) – SF: Earlier this year, I said, “Surkamp is a soft-tossing lefty … Fastball sits in the upper 80s with heavy sinking action. Changeup and curveball are both plus pitches. Has a three-quarter delivery that creates good deception and he has strong command of all his pitches.”
32. Bryce Harper – RF – WAS: The hype will start early in April and build to a crescendo in June. I don’t think he’ll be up before August at the earliest. I’d expect Mike Trout-type results upon his first call-up. In his prime, I think he’ll be similar to Ryan Braun in his prime. This is all assuming no major setbacks or injuries in 2012.
33. Jake Odorriz – RHP (SP) – KC: The Royals are loaded with pitching prospects. As exemplified by Danny Duffy, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas Johnny Giavotella, Salvador Perez, Aaron Crow and Tim Collins’ 2011 call-ups, the Royals 2012 roster should see a heavy turnover, especially at pitcher. Will start out of the gate or be a June call up. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.
34. Joe Benson – OF – MIN: The Twins best power hitting prospect. Injury prone. When healthy has shown strong plate discipline, above-average power (25 to 30 home run ceiling), and ability to steal the occasional base. He’s a Hunter Pence with a slightly lower average and a few less steals, if/when healthy.
35. John Lamb – LHP (SP) – KC: See half-inch above in the Odorizzi blurb. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.
36. Chris Marrero – 1B – WAS: With Mike Morse coming into his own in 2011, the Nationals will not have to rush Marrero into the starting lineup. He’s proven himself at each level. In his prime, projects as a mid-20 home run hitter. Currently, I would expect a Freddie Freeman-type rookie season: .291/.352/.461 and high-teen home runs over a full season. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.
37. Dellin Betances – RHP (SP) – NYY: As the Yankees best pitching prospect, high expectations will be placed on him, especially with the recent back-end rotation woes for the Bronx Bombers. June call-up looks to be in place. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.
38. Liam Hendriks – RHP (SP) – MIN: With Kyle Gibson’s injury concern, Hendriks becomes the next best pitching prospect ready for the show in Minnesota. Not that the Twins will rush him, but their rotation is easily trumped by the Braves Triple-A rotation. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.
39. Mike Montgomery – LHP (SP) – KC: Will need to improve command, limit walks and gain more consistency to be more than an AL-Only add. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.
40. Kirk Nieuwenhuis – RF – NYM: To quote my Scouting article, “possesses good all-around, broad skill-set played at a balls-to-the-wall approach. Meaning, he has all tools ranging from fringe-average to average tools that make him a solid player but unspectacular at any specific skill. Hitting approach is strong, attempting to utilize all fields and working the count. Still projects as a .270 hitter with gap power within his line-drive swing.” Strikeouts will always be a concern. He’s one Angel Pagan injury away from seeing significant playing time in 2012. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.
41. Steve Lombardozzi – 2B/IF – WAS: The Nationals were unwilling to give him up in a trade for Denard Span. Of course they did, they are the same player but at different positions.
42. Robbie Erlin – LHP (SP) – SD: Good strikeout potential, excellent future home ballpark, and amazing control. Yes, please. Listed lower than my praise because I don’t see the Padres rushing him to the majors.
43. Neil Ramirez – RHP (SP) – TEX: Similar to Erlin, I see the Rangers allow him to accumulate more experience at Triple-A. He started the 2011 season at High-A and was promoted to Triple-A and then demoted to Double-A. Needs to improve command. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.
44. Andrew Oliver – LHP (SP) – DET: I think he gets pushed to the bullpen due to inconsistency and command concerns. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.
45. Matt Dominguez – 3B – FLA: A strong NL-only and deep league play. He’ll sustain his major league career through his excellent defensive skills not his average-at-best bat. Projects to be a .260 hitter with average power (15 home runs). So David Freese.
46. Jaff Decker – LF – SD: At some point, his old-player skill-set (power and walks with poor defense) will catch up to his prospect value. Currently, I see him being a similar type of player as Jack Cust. That’s both a compliment and a red flag. May need to traded to an AL team to play DH. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.
47. Casey Kelly – RHP (SP) – SD: Similar predicament to Robbie Erlin, but without strikeout potential – not even close. His home park causes his value to rise. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.
48. Grant Green – SS – OAK: Cliff Pennington is keeping the spot warm for the future A’s shortstop. Better gap power than home run power (projects as average power), strong average, an occasional steal. Defensively, question marks are raise about his efficiency. Think a .300 hitter with 12 to 15 home runs and 10 steals from shortstop over the course of the season. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.
49. Nick Franklin – SS – SEA: Injuries slowed his 2011 season down. Projects for a .280, 12 to 15 home run and 10 steal player. He plays good defense, has a smooth swing and average speed. His 2010 season was bolstered by his environment (California League). With Dustin Ackley manning second, Franklin appears to remain at shortstop. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.
50. Travis d’Arnaud – C – TOR: Won the Eastern League MVP with the following slash line: .311/.371/.542 with 55 XBH (21 Hr) and a 100:33 K:BB ratio. Is blocked by J.P. Arencibia at the major league level. Travis d’Arnaud plays much better defense and makes better contact than Arencibia. The power potential is not the same with d’Arnaud, but he could easily hit between 15 and 20 home runs in his rookie year given a full seasons of at-bats (~400). However, that number of at-bats is highly unlikely, more likely to receive 250 at-bats. In that time frame, he could have 5 to 8 home runs with a digestible average.
Extra 51. Josh Vitters – 3B – CHC: Hitting wise, I consider him similar to Delmon Young: swings early and often, relies on pedigree and natural talent, is inconsistent. Defensively he is superior to Young. Aramis Ramirez has shown to be injury prone two of the last three years. Cub fans may finally see their 2007 first round pick. Keep in mind he is turned only 22 on August 27th. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.
Late Scratch Kyle Gibson – RHP (SP) – MIN: He would be a top 15 fantasy prospect if he wasn’t having Tommy John Surgery after injuring his elbow. The Minneapolis Star Tribune reported on September 1, 2011, “Gibson will have reconstructive surgery on his elbow after the initial phase of his rehabilitation program did not go well … surgery [was performed 9/7/11] in New York, … surgery done by Mets team physician, Dr. David Altcheck, who also operated on Joe Nathan’s elbow last year.” I don’t think I’ve ever heard a pitcher who’s pitching elbow hurt significantly successfully complete rehab without TJ Surgery. Twins fans hope that the Mets medical staff doesn’t advise on the healing process either. Then again, Joe Mauer had “bi-lateral leg soreness” for a month. Not sure where Dr. James Andrew (a.k.a Dr. Freeze) was in the whole conversation. Gibson was shutdown early August with elbow tenderness. Statistically, it appeared that his injury may have been lingering since early July. Not relevant until 2013. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.
Honorable Mentions In no particular order Nick Weglarz (RF, CLE); Casey Crosby (LHP, DET); Trevor Bauer (RHP, ARI); LJ Hoes (2B, BAL); Jarred Cosart (RHP, HOU); Jedd Gyorko (3B, SD); Carlos Triunfel (SS, SEA); Adeiny Hechavarria (SS, TOR); Anthony Gose (OF, TOR); Yasmani Grandal (C, CIN); Chris Archer (TB) (RHP, TB); Jeff Locke (LHP, PIT); Tony Sanchez (C, PIT); Austin Hyatt(RHP, PHI), Michael Taylor (RF, OAK); Chris Withrow (LHP, LAD); Lars Anderson (1B, BOS); Brandon Guyer (OF, TB); Deck McGuire (RHP, TOR); Simon Castro (RHP, SD); Trevor May (RHP, PHI); Jake McGee (LHP, TB); Jeurys Familia (RHP, NYM); Christian Friedrich (LHP, COL); David Cooper (1B, TOR); Austin Romine (C, NYY); Tom Milone (LHP, WAS); Clint Robinson (1B, KC); David Lough (OF, KC); Tim Wheeler (LF/RF, COL); Alex Liddi (3B, SEA); Adrian Cardenas (2B/MI, OAK); Alex Torres (RHP, TB); Rudy Owens (LHP, PIT); Tanner Scheppers (RHP, TEX); Starling Marte (CF, PIT); Matt Adams (1B, St.L); Jose Iglesias (SS, BOS); Carlos Peguero (LF, SEA); Chris Parmelee (1B, MIN); Caleb Gindl (RF, MIL); Jarred Cosart (RHP, HOU)
Every once in a while, I enjoy checking in on prospects that caused my red flag alarm to chirp. One of these prospects was Josh Vitters of the Chicago Cubs. In 2009, I wrote a Scouting the Unknown article that raised the war banners across the prospecting battlements. He ended that 2009 season on a positive note and followed up in 2010 like Delmon Young did his 2010 season in 2011. Vitters has rebounded nicely at age 21 in Double-A, currently hitting .285/.315/.455 (.297 BABIP) in 376 at-bats with 38 XBH (12 Hr) and 46:15 K:BB ratio. Allow myself to quote the StU article, “[free swinger] … walks less, or about the same as Delmon Young. Folks, that isn’t a compliment … K-rates are similar to Delmon Young too …Not to be a Debbie Downer or to have a Vitters Vendetta, but I don’t trust those peripherals.” Same concerns remain. As a free-swinging, hype driven prospect, his name has quickly become stale, especially when realizing he lacks professional hitting discipline even if his swing is exceptional.
Matt Moore | TB | LHP (SP): Just for schoolgirl giggles, here is Moore’s last two starts: 12 2/3 IP, 9 baserunners (2 BB), 2 ER, 20 Ks. Remember 2010′s rush for Strasburg? Rinse, wash and repeat for Moore, except the puns will only be worse.
Jacob Turner | DET | RHP (SP): Rumors of him replacing Brad Penny in the rotation. He’s not like Porcello, but more like Michael Pineda.
Henderson Alvarez | TOR | RHP (SP): Shortly – two days – after I stated he was getting passed over for a start, he gets called up to face the A’s. Pitched 5 2/3 IP with 3 ER, 9 baserunners (1 BB) and 4 K. I feel this would be his typical stat line give or take a few baserunners and a run or three.
Garrett Richards | LAA | RHP (SP): The Angels 7th ranked prospect was dominated by the Yankees lineup on Wednesday to the tune of 6 ER in 5 IP with 8 baserunners (2 BB) and 2 Ks. Up next, the Texas Rangers. I’d avoid his next start. His talent is mid-rotation starter or power reliever. Personally reminds me of a slightly better Scott Baker.
Ryan Lavarnway | BOS | C: Every good captain needs a rude awakening that he’s vulnerable. Jason Varitek’s happens to be a young chap by the name of Ryan Lavarnway. He has 29 home runs in 402 at-bats across two levels. Currently, he is hitting .320/.401/.634 in 194 at-bats with a .373 BABIP at Triple-A (International League). Luck-schmuck, he should still receive a September promotion with that production.
Stephen Strasburg | WAS | RHP (SP): Grey mentioned him in Friday’s Buy/Sell article. At this point, he’s not going to save your team. He might add a few solid starts to solidify your standing. Seems to me he’s rushing. Most TJ pitchers returning in their first year struggle with command. This would be his first year.
Adeiny Hechavarria | TOR | SS: The Blue Jays promoted him to Triple-A Las Vegas. Not that his .235/.275/.347 slash line at Double-A warranted the reward. Best asset is defense and speed (is 19 for 32 on steal attempts), the same can be said for Alcides Escobar. With Yunel Escobar holding the fort, the Jays shouldn’t be rushing this young Cuban prospect.
Yonder Alonso | CIN | 1B/LF: Rotoworld informed that the world that, “Reds manager Dusty Baker said it’s possible Yonder Alonso could be demoted to Triple-A Louisville in order to get some playing time at third base.” I swear Dusty hates young prospects. If he cannot be a Sweatshop Foreman and cause an arm to fall off, he demotes them to waste their talent(s). Bawh!
Kyle Gibson | MIN | RHP (SP): This was not the way to start my work week. The Twins top pitching prospect, and arguably the Twins best prospect, has a partial tear in ulnar collateral ligament.Read: Dr. Freeze will have a new patient in no time. With what happened to Liriano, maybe the Twins shouldn’t assume modern medicine went the way of the dodo bird. Save the future and just have Dr. James Andrews perform TJ surgery. His June and July months have been razztastic (5.17 ERA in June and 13 ER in July over two starts). It’s possible the injury has been bothering him for a while. Here’s to crossing fingers and playing voodoo with GM Bill Smith’s intelligence.
Yasmani Grandal | CIN | C: Before Devin Mesoraco went all Mario on the koopa troopas in 2010, Grandal would have been the Reds top catching prospect when he was drafted in June 2010 – still is the better defender. Nevertheless, Mesoraco’s bat returned from a scurvy ravaged voyage across the Florida State League (2010 season) to steal his title. To further put a damper on Grandal’s season he has been placed on the DL due to a concussion suffered from a foul-tip off his mask. He was slashing .291/.386/.487 in 407 plate-appearances with 14 homers and 60 RBI. I see a Texas Rangers catching situation occurring in 2012. No, I am not saying Mesoraco and Grandal will struggle in the majors. I am saying that one can never have too many catching prospects. You never know if one will actually pan out.
Robbie Erlin | SD | LHP (SP): He’s one (new) Padres pitching prospect that I would love to own in the future. Check this out: 138:13 K:BB ratio in 133 1/3 innings at 20 years of age. Could easily become the present version of Cliff Lee.
Chicago Cubs 2010 Minor League Review
Overall farm ranking via Baseball America (2010):
2010 (15) | 2009 (27) | 2008 (20) | 2007 (18) | 2006 (15) | 2005 (10) | 2004 (7)
Record of Major League Team and Affiliates
Majors: [75 – 87] NL Central
AAA: [82 – 62] Pacific Coast League – Iowa
AA: [86 – 53] Southern League – Tennessee
A+: [75 – 64] Florida State League – Daytona
A: [71 – 66] Midwest League – Peoria
A(ss): [34 – 41] Northwest League – Boise
R: [26 – 29] Arizona League
The Run Down
The Cubs received Matt Garza and Fernando Perez for pitcher Chris Archer, outfielders Brandon Guyer, Sam Fuld, catcher Robinson Chirinos, and shortstop Hak-Ju Lee. According to Keith Law, the Rays received a better deal than the Royals did for Grienke and, “Although their package of players is, collectively, further away than what the Royals got,” Law also stated,”Hak-Ju Lee is the star of the deal.” Seems like a lot for Garza. Subsequently, The North Siders made a play for now while the Rays restocked their system. Speaking of systems, the Cubs went from some intriguing players to “Who’s behind Brett Jackson?” Fernando Perez could be another Franklin Gutierrez, but that might be stretching his talent; defensively, he’s a stud, hitting-wise he’s average, health-wise he makes Rickie Weeks look like an iron man. They also just made a trade with Washington sending Tom Gorzelanny for prospects (LHP) Graham Hicks, (RHP) A.J. Morris, and (OF) Michael Burgess. This adds some depth in the minor leagues and clears pitching space on the major league squad. I make mention of just Michael Burgess in this article. This aging team has few immediate fillers in the minors, then again, I didn’t think Starlin Castro was going to be ready for 2010 and I was quite wrong. Oh, and Josh Vitters is still floundering. Beyond the top few prospects, this system feels shallow, a lot of their talent is in the low minors (i.e. Rookie Leagues and Single-A).
Arizona Fall League Players Mesa Solar Sox
Pitchers: #28 (RHP) David Cales; #8 (RHP) Chris Carpenter; (RHP) Jake Muyco; (RHP) Kyle Smit
Hitters: #9 (3B) Ryan Flaherty; #3 (3B) Josh Vitters; #2 (CF) Brett Jackson
Players of Interest Hitters #3 Josh Vitters | 3B | D.o.B: 8-27-89 | Stats (A+/AA): .247/.312/.405 | 316 AB | 30 XBH | 10 Hr | .158 ISO | 6/1 SB/CS | 63:21 K:BB | .341 BABIP (A+); .247 BABIP (AA)
Vitters’ highlights from Baseball America, “compact stroke for a power hitter … 25 to 30 home runs … potential .300 hitter … strong arm … below-average runner … on course to hit major in 2011.” His numbers this year looked better than in past years, but that was due to smashing High-A. Career-wise, his numbers look, well, I’ll just put them up:
Career AA (’10): .223/.292/.383 | 206 AB | 19 XBH | 7 Hr | 41:13 K:BB
Career A+ (’09, ’10): .258/.294/.381 | 299 AB | 23 XBH | 6 Hr | 45:13 K:BB
Not pretty. John Sickels has a good take on Vitters, “[Vitters is tough to analyze as] [H]is strengths are obvious … he has a beautiful swing … tremendous bat speed, one of the quickest in the minors … easily makes contact and seldom strikeouts. Power to all fields. On defense, has a strong arm and fairly mobile … BUT for all the strengths, there are some negatives … walk rate is incredibly low … swings at [pitches] even if it is a pitch that he can’t do much with.” Sounds like Delmon Young, except he thrived in the minors. He’s still young, has the pedigree to warrant another year of review, and has the skills. ETA won’t be 2011 like BA stated. I’d expect more along the lines of 2012. For further details, see Scouting the Unknown.
#9 (WAS) Michael Burgess | RF | D.o.B: 10-20-89 | Stats (AA/AAA): .265/.357/.465 | 460 AB | 50 XBH | 18 Hr | .200 ISO | 5/2 SB/CS | 116:57 K:BB | BABIP (AA: .307 ; AAA: .366)
From the Washington Nationals Minor League Review: Burgess possesses plus-plus raw power but has a long swing and can’t hit breaking pitches or change-ups. Obviously, coaches are working on his batting mechanics. Historically, he has struggled against lefties (.227/.318/.307 in 2009). Scouts and coaches rave about his motivation to improve and strong work ethic. His defense is steadily improving but isn’t an asset beyond his plus arm that is accurate (had 26 assists in 2008). Don’t expect many steals as he’s a below-average runner. Sounds like Michael Cuddyer without the nagging injuries. I would expect 25 home runs with a .275 average, at best, in the majors if given a full season – even during his prime.
#2 Brett Jackson | CF | D.o.B: 8-2-88 | Stats (A+/AA): .297/.395/.493 | 491 AB | 58 XBH | 12 Hr | .196 ISO | 30/11 SB/CS | 126:73 K:BB | .395 BABIP (A+); .352 BABIP (AA)
I’ll quote my Scouting the Unknown article and let you read the rest, “I see a 20 homer, 30 steals, and a .270 to .280 average in his fantasy future.” Future may equal prime, just a heads up. Struggled more at Double-A, but still hit well (263 AB.316/.420/.517 (A+) | 228 AB .276/.366/.465 (AA)).
#27 Welington Castillo | C | D.o.D: 4-24-87 | Stats (AAA): .255/.317/.498 | 239 AB | 31 XBH | 13 Hr | .243 ISO | 0/2 SB/CS | 58:19 K:BB | .274 BABIP
The trade of Robinson Chirinos, a 27 year old catcher, clears room for Castillo to take over as the Cubs best catching prospect; technically Castillo was considered the better prospect before the trade due to his age. “Never has shown much plate discipline … sold out for power … best tool is his arm strength … sloppy receiver.” Thanks, Baseball America. Unless his scouting report changes much from preseason 2010, I think Castillo works best as a backup and pinch hitter.
Marquez Smith | 3B | D.o.B: 3-20-86 | Stats (AAA): .314/.384/.574 | 303 AB | 44 XBH | 17 Hr | .260 ISO | 2/0 SB/CS | 70:31 K:BB | .358 BABIP
I have to go back to Baseball America’s 2009 Handbook, “quick wrists … reasonable disciplined approach … [could hit] for decent average and some power … [fairly] athletic … versatile defender with strong arm.” It’s not like his 2009 season was poor, he hit .280/.339/.441 with 45 extra-base-hits and a 82-to-33 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Not sure why he was omitted for this year’s edition. His 2010 stats looked better due to a high batting average on balls in play (.358 BABIP) and a small sampling of at-bats (303 AB). Not like it completely matters when you expect a normal BABIP to reduce his stats to his 2009 season. He is a marginalized prospect with versatility, much like Casey McGehee. Matter of fact, they have very similar career paths. Will need injury to make the majors.
Pitchers #5 Jay Jackson | RHP | D.o.B: 10-27-87 | Stats (AAA): 6.8 K/9 | 2.7 BB/9 | 157 1/3 IP | 4.63 ERA | 4.50 FIP | 1.29 WHIP | 1.1 Hr/9 | 8.8 H/9 | .291 BABIP
Throws four average or slightly-better pitches, a 90 to 95 MPH fastball, a mid-80s slider, a curveball, and an “effective” changeup. The two negatives from his 2010 season (1) diminishing strikeout rate and (2) home run rate. Nevertheless, Jay Jackson looks like a back of the rotation innings eater. With Garza coming over in a trade, I don’t think we see Jackson unless there is an injury or three.
#8 Chris Carpenter | RHP | D.o.B: 12-26-85 | Stats (AA): 7.5 K/9 | 3.4 BB/9 | 119 2/3 IP | 3.16 ERA | 3.45 FIP | 1.39 WHIP | .4 Hr/9 | 8.9 H/9 | .319 BABIP
An injury risk, with a medical history to make Dr. Freeze happy. He had Tommy John surgery in 2005 and another elbow surgery in 2006. Carpenter throws a 91 to 94 MPH fastball with movement and can touch 97; a slurve that flashes into a biting slider and a changeup that still needs work. John Sickels states that his ceiling is a number two starter if his control remains in-check or a number four starter. Or you know, another power arm in their bullpen. Carpenter did throw 15 innings at Triple-A (3 starts), but is riding the same boat as J.Jackson, waiting for another injury – not his – to make the majors.
Mitch Atkins | RHP | D.o.B: 10-1-85 | Stats (AAA): 6.4 K/9 | 3.5 BB/9 | 106 2/3 IP | 3.63 ERA | 4.75 FIP | 1.32 WHIP | 1.6 Hr/9 | 10.1 H/9 | .272 BABIP
A mediocre pitcher at best. Throws a 88 to 92 MPH fastball with some sinking action, a cutter, a potential solid-average curveball, and a changeup. The “potential solid-average” from the 2009 Baseball America Handbook should tell the whole story. I could see him getting a spot start as he has good command and pitches to contact. Seems like these type of pitchers get the spot starts. I’d avoid this past Cubs Minor League Pitcher of the Year (2008).
Honorable Mentions Hitters Russ Canzler | 1B/3B | D.o.B: 4-11-86 | Stats (AA): .287/.372/.566 | 355 AB | 53 XBH | 21 Hr | .279 ISO | 5/4 SB/CS | 95:46 K:BB | .332 BABIP
More for minor league depth than major hype, Canzler has shown good statistical production in the last two years. Too bad he is playing with his same age-cohort. Has moderate power and decent strikeout-to-walk ratio. Not exciting, could see him as trade bait.
Tony Thomas | 2B | D.o.B: 7-10-86 | Stats (AA): .276/.338/.485 | 402 AB | 51 XBH | 11 Hr | .209 ISO | 15/2 SB/CS | 100:33 K:BB | .338 BABIP
From the 2009 Baseball America Handbook, “quick hands … aggressive swing … average runner … [defense] leaves something to be desired.” Smells of utility fielder, not what the Cubs were hoping for their round three pick in 2007.
Pitchers #16 Trey McNutt | RHP | D.o.B: 8-2-89 | Stats (A/A+/AA): 10.2 K/9 | 2.9 BB/9 | 116 1/3 IP | 2.48 ERA | 2.16 FIP (A); 2.57 FIP (A+); (AA?) | 1.12 WHIP | .4 Hr/9 | 7.2 H/9 | BABIP?
Fangraphs did not have any advanced stats for McNutt, but their own Marc Hulet has him ranked as the Cubs second overall prospect, saying he throws a 93 to 96 MPH fastball, a “good” curveball, and an “improving” changeup. Had a 1.17 GO/AO too. Currently is under the radar. This would be one prospect to watch early next year to judge his value.
Chicago Cubs 2009 Minor League Review
Overall farm ranking via Baseball America:
2009 (27) | 2008 (20) | 2007 (18) | 2006 (15) | 2005 (10) | 2004 (7)
Record of Major League Team and Affiliates
Majors: 83 – 78 (NL Central)
AAA: 72 – 72 (Pacific Coast League)
AA: 71 – 69 (Southern League)
A+: 64 – 71 (Florida State League)
A: 81 – 57 (Midwest League)
A(ss): 34 – 52 (Northwest League)
R: 29 – 27 (Arizona League)
The Run Down
Two really interesting factoids from Baseball America’s preview on the 2009 Cubs, factoid number 1 – “Chicago hasn’t gotten long-term production out of a first-round pick since Kerry Wood in 1995; factoid number 2 – other than Geovany Soto, who as drafted in round 11 in 2001, they “haven’t developed a position player it signed into an All-Star since they drafted Joe Girardi in 1986.” With a couple of trades this past year (Sean Gallagher and catcher Josh Donaldson for Rich Harden; Jose Ceda (#4 ranked prospect) for Kevin Gregg) the Cubs traded away a third of their top ten prospects. Through trades in the recent past, Chicago has built a contender each year at the expense of their farm system.
After another disappointing season on the north side, the Cubs have several pressing issues about their team. Milton Bradley was a flop, Rich Harden is a free agent, Alfonso Soriano got old really fast, and second base was a tale of two halves. Bradley looks like he on his way out of town, Harden may be too costly to keep around, Soriano is on the tail end of his career, and there are few solid options from within to replace the outfield spot of Bradley let alone another injury ravaged season of Soriano. On a positive note, Derrek Lee was his old self hitting 35 homers and .306/.394/.579, Randy Wells came out of nowhere to have an extraordinarily great rookie year, and Ryan Theriot provided good defense and sufficient offense from the shortstop position.
Arizona Fall League Players – Mesa Solar Sox
Andrew Cashner, John Gaub, Blake Parker, James Russell – All SP
Welington Castilo (C) ,Starlin Castro (SS), Josh Vitters (3B)
Players of Interest *A number prior to a player’s name indicates Baseball America’s 2009 prospect Ranking
#1 – Josh Vitters | 3B | A/A+ | 19 | totals – .284/.314/.456 | 458 AB | 18 HR | .172 ISO | 65:12 K:BB
If you’ve been reading Razzball all summer, you would have saw here that I wasn’t sold on Vitters being a stud major league hitter in his career. This isn’t to start a debate, but a harsh analysis on Vitters may not be terrible. Each prospect has their pros and cons. I will look at Vitters again next summer and see where he is at. His overall total numbers look pretty good, but he struggled at High-A this year. Look at his slash line at each level:
A – .316/.351/.535 in 269 AB
A+ – .238/.260/.344 in 189 AB
Not what you want your hitter doing upon a promotion; granted his BABIP at Single-A was .330 and at High-A was .258 indicating he was having some “bad-luck.” He is only 19, is a level-or-so above his age, but his walk ratio will start to become a larger red flag as he progresses through the minors unless he can change his walking ways. He still is one of the best young hitting prospects in the entire majors, so patience may be a HUGE key (and for me, as well).
Kyler Burke | OF | A | 21 | .303/.405/.505 | 465 AB | 43 2B | 15 HR | .202 ISO | 99:78 K:BB
2009 was a career year for Burke. He cut his strikeout rate by a third and increased his walk-rate from 7.7% to 14.4% since 2008. With an aging outfield in Chicago, he may be a bright spot if he can reproduce these numbers at higher levels. Take this all with a grain of salt, this year was his first full year at Single-A, but he has had half seasons there in the past two seasons.
#10 – Hak-Ju Lee | SS | A(ss) | 18 | .330/.399/.420 | 264 AB | .090 ISO | 25/8 SB/CS | 50:31 K:BB | .401 BABIP
Chicago’s big international signing out of Korea did pretty well for his first year in America. He looks to be a light hitting, defensive shortstop with some speed. Keep in mind he had an extremely high batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Being so young, his ceiling is still sky high. Look for him to play at Single-A in 2010 and ideally progress to Double-A by the end of ’10.
#7 – Starlin Castro | SS | A+/AA | 19 | totals – .299/.432/.392 | 429 AB | .093 ISO | 28/11 SB/CS | 53:29 K:BB
Another prized shortstop in the Cubs organization put things together this year. The upper brass is really hoping that Theriot can keep the spot warm for Castro. He has more speed than his steals would even lead one to believe as he is still learning the stealing craft. Playing predominately at Single-A, his late season promotion to Double-A proved that he could handle the higher competition. Look for him to start at Double-A in 2010, even if he performs above expectations at Arizona this fall.
#3 – Andrew Cashner | SP (RHP) | A+/AA | 22 | totals – 6.7 K/9 | 3.8 BB/9 | 100 1/3 IP | 2.60 ERA | 1.18 WHIP
Once he was promoted to Double-A his stats started to fall. Both his strikeouts and walks took large hits at Double-A. One positive is he only gave up one homer all season. His ranking should take a hit as he didn’t produce like a top prospect. If he has a strong Fall League performance, he may be nearing a mid-season look or September call up in 2010. Look for him to start in Double-A.
#9 – Jay Jackson | SP (RHP) | A+/AA/AAA| 22 | totals – 9 K/9 | 3.3 BB/9 | 127 IP | 2.98 ERA | 1.22 WHIP
His level spread is a bit deceiving as he only started and pitched in one game at Triple-A. Once he started pitching in Double-AA his walk rate went from .8 BB/9 in 36 1/3 innings at High-A to 4.2 BB/9 in 82 2/3 innings at Double-A. His dominance in High-A is truly what makes his stats look really impressive. He might start 2010 in Double-A, waiting for the warmer weather of the Pacific Coast games, or could start in Triple-A. Either way, he should be given the chance to play in the majors next summer.
Jeff Antigua | SP (LHP) | A(ss)/A | 19 | totals – 8.9 K/9 | 2.5 BB/9 | 68 2/3 IP | 3.01 ERA | .99 WHIP
A little under the radar, Antigua pitched brilliantly aside from his seven home runs he gave up. Being left-handed will increase his stock greatly as the Cubs don’t have many top left-handed prospects. He’ll probably start again in Single-A with a mid-season promotion to Double-A.
Honorable Mentions Brett Jackson | OF | R/A(ss)/A | 20
Drafted number 31 in the 2009 draft. Hit seven of his eight homers, 11 of his 13 stolen bases, and five of his six doubles at Single-A.
Rebel Ridling | 1B | A | 23
As both ranked first basemen above him in the Cubs organization have graduated, look for Ridling to be a prospect rated in the low twenties for 2010. He finally produced in his second year at Single-A. He cut his strikeouts by nearly half, almost doubled his walk rate (not hard when you start so low), yet he still has a long ways to be more than organizational depth.
#16 – Tyler Colvin | OF | A+/AA | 23
Actually got promoted in September with three hits in 17 at-bats.
#8 – Ryan Flaherty | 3B/2B | A | 22
Hit 20 homers in 485 at-bats while producing an above average slash line of .276/.344/.470 and a decent K:BB of 98:50.
#18 – Chris Carpenter | SP (RHP) | A/A+/AA | 23
Finally moved up a few levels to match his talent and age. Still performed below expectations at each level besides Single-A, while pitching the best overall at High-A
