Have you ever been to one of those beer gardens that has 150 beers on tap? At first the menu is completely daunting. You look at it and are overwhelmed by the amount of potential options. You take your time and carefully read through the first couple of pages trying to pick the right brew for your taste. Meanwhile the waitress is stopping by your table every few minutes to see if you finally made up your mind. You’re feeling the pressure. You hastily make a choice, and pray it doesn’t taste like skunked Old Milwaukee. This is exactly how I felt looking at the pitching options for today’s game. I think I looked at the DraftKings pitching roster for an hour last night. Do I go Clayton Kershaw and Sonny Gray? How about Kershaw and Julio Teheran? Could I manage to start both Kershaw and Chris Sale? Oh wow I’d spend half my budget doing that, can’t do it. As much as I love Sale and Kershaw, I couldn’t bring myself to pony up the dough to buy either. They were particularly expensive today, and with good reason. They both get great matchups in their respective contests, with Kershaw facing the Giants in San Francisco, and Sale getting the Twins in Minnesota. I could certainly vouch for you going with either. I’m putting together a lineup for a GPP today with Sale and Kershaw as my starters, the tough thing is my average salary per hitter is a measly $3,000. So more or less I’m going to have to wait until rosters are published for the day to plug in my scrubs. A lineup of punt plays!

For our purposes, I’m going to share my roster for leagues (like our 20 Teamer) and 50/50’s. This way we’ll have some actual exciting bats to talk about. Plus I can fit in some players from that Rockies vs. Pirates matchup at Coors. Hopefully the Pirates got over the curse of “Sky’s Opening Game of a Series at Coors Dud”, and they’ll be safe to start for the next two days. Any the who, big shouts to our winners from last night’s Razzball 20: Frogkaytee, Rasjuba, Fremka, Jackieinertia, and the Homie and fellow Razzball writer BTXJ. Great job guys! I suggest celebrating your wins by investing in today’s 20 Teamer. If you’ve been playing in our leagues and haven’t been consulting with the Stream-o-Nator, DFSBot, the Hitter-Tron, or the Ombotsman, it could be why you’re not getting mentioned here on Saturdays. But hey, what do I know, I only invented Fantasy baseball, daily fantasy sites, and peanut butter a la Al Gore did the internet. Don’t worry you can thank me in the comments.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 20 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care!

Please, blog, may I have some more?

How great would it be for the Braves to trade for Marlon Byrd? Byrd and Ervin reunited. Byrd, of course, would have to bleach his skin like Sammy Sosa, put a giant yellow Brillo pad on his head for hair and wear some butt-hugging shorts that even white boys got to shout, “Baby got back!” Then Isiah can show up early, kiss them all on the cheek and watch from the sidelines. Ah, to dream (team). Due to a slightly inflated BABIP, Ervin Santana‘s ERA is up a tad from where it should be. Right now, he has the 27th best xFIP, right in front of Adam Wainwright. Speaking of Wainwright, Ervin’s K-rate is better than his. Is Ervin Santana pitching better than Wainwright? I wouldn’t go that far, but I wouldn’t go so far away from that statement either. Doesn’t anyone stay in one place anymore? It would be fine to see your face– Sorry. The great thing about Ervin compared to a Wainwright, he’s not even owned in some leagues. In the leagues where he is owned, how much would it take to get him in a trade? A Brain Freeze? A potato chip that’s in the shape of Sloth from The Goonies? A free ticket to an autograph show where Shelley Duncan is dressed up like Tackleberry from Police Academy? I.e., not much. Go, get Ervin, he’s magic, abracadabra. Anyway, here’s some more players to Buy or Sell this week in fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Like a good Jewish boy, Brad Ausmus said to his Bubbie, “Bubbie, I love sulfites, nitrates and pig a**holes, but every time I see a Nathan’s, I get the runs. Bubbie, do you have a remedy?” His Bubbie lowered her knitting and said, “You need to get a goddamn decent closer!” And so it was done. Unfortunately, due to being wracked with guilt (or possibly due to a rather hard knock on the head), Ausmus couldn’t pull the trigger and said Nathan will remain the closer. Oh. WHAT?! The Rangers traded Joakim Soria to the Tigers because Joe Nathan is making Detroit look even lousier. I can’t imagine Soria remains the set-up man for very long, since Nathan owns a 5.89 ERA and has looked completely lost for the better part of the season. For now, I’d hold both of them. Over in Texas, I have a rooting interest in Neal Cotts getting saves, because I own him and not Neftali Feliz. If I had my druthers, and knew what the hell druthers were — hmm, maybe then I do have druthers — I would grab Neftali first. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Something many of you don’t realize, but one of the first people to talk to a player that was just traded is his new team’s tailor. The Yankees tailor got on the phone with Chase Headley to find out what size jersey he wears, and Headley looked down, beaming to be out of Petco, and said, “Giuseppe, you might want to take out my inseam too.” I wonder if the flowers smelled a little better as Headley stepped into Yankee Stadium for the first time. Sure, in contrast to his hour long ride through the Bronx, getting lost in Hunts Point, anything would smell better, but it can’t be worse, can it? His career in away games prorated over a 162 game season is: 79/19/79/.286/14. Doode’s David Wright! Well, almost. Which is sad for Headley and Wright. More sad for Wright. What a guy does in only half a season can be anywhere from bupkis to I-want-to-bump-grind-and-kiss. Will Headley suddenly be mixed league worthy? Yeah, for at least a flyer, if nothing else. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Odrisamer Despaigne almost threw a no-hitter yesterday (7 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 5 Ks) in his Padres camo fatigues, which had Fidel completely uncertain how to react. “I love to wear camo too, but now he’s doing it for the American Baseball Organization and representing their military? I am torn like Natalie Imbruglia.” Luckily, Fidel had someone who burped too loud to assassinate to take his mind off things. Odrisamer Despaigne, or Otis Spunkmeyer as I always want to call him, now has a 1.31 ERA on the year (34 1/3 IP) and a laughable K-rate (4.46). Speaking of communists, that’s even laughable for Correia. Maybe the Mets couldn’t see Spunkmeyer’s pitches because the Padres were also using their trademark camo-painted baseball? Oh, wait, this is the Mets we’re yakking up. How silly of me. Spunkmeyer is definitely worth riding when in home starts, and even favorable road matchups while throwing well, but I wouldn’t trust him long-term. Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

As I mentioned in my first/intro OPS post, we’re looking at OPS differential by using expected (x)Homerun and expected (x)BABIP differentials. If you like Captain Planet or laser beams, or want to understand my general approach, then I recommend a gander. If you provide your email below, I can furnish the full list that you can sort. Wordpress doesn’t allow me to copy and paste it all pretty for you.

Let’s start with my xHR formula (PA*Ct%*OFFB%*HR/OFFB%). Here are the top 10 guys likely to drop off from a HR perspective: Albert Pujols, Adam Jones, Justin Morneau, Alexei Ramirez, Mark Reynolds, Charlie Blackmon, Ian Desmond, Brett Lawrie, Hunter Pence and Salvador Perez.

Here are the top 35 guys likely to drop off from a BABIP perspective that you actually might own (meaning I’m excluding the Martin Maldonados of the world): Josh Rutledge, Justin Ruggiano, A.J. Pollock, Josh Hamilton, Stephen Vogt, J.D. Martinez, J.J. Hardy, Eugenio Suarez, Hunter Pence and Matt Adams.

Looking at both xHR and xBABIP differentials, here are guys you might own that I would consider selling in OPS leagues based on their expected vs. actual OPS (the differential is in parenthesis just like this statement. See what I did here?):

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I have been wanting to write about DJ LeMahieu (9.3% owned) many times throughout the first half of the 2014 season. OK, it’s not a true mathematical half, but an easy way to reference for the non-counters. Numbers….Psshhh! He came into the season with a little MI love but has been an infrequent batty call at best. After a solidly blah April, he went all don’t even think about it to owners who wanted to hit the add button. That was the first three months of the season, but this is July where he’s hit .357 with a HR so far. Anyone who knows DJ’s will know that the first half of the night is a’ight while the last half is when the magic happens. When the crowd has been beat (pun point) into a position for the knockout blow of auditory bliss. You know what I’m saying dog? Yeah yeah yeah, WTF, I just had a hand stutter. The french DJ has the house on his side, and by house I mean Coors Canaveral, where the Coors Correction makes everyone Bichetter!

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Well, you should be sorry, Ronald Belisario. You have been pretty rough on your owners since stepping into the closer role, testing the limits of SAGNOF and just how much pain a fantasy owner will endure to capture those elusive saves. Belisario was at it again last night and gave up three hits and two runs to the Blue Jays, recording just one out before being removed from the game. In just 12 innings pitched since inheriting the job, Ronny has surrendered 10 ER on 20 hits with three blown saves in in that time. More like RonaldO-No! Hey, a World Cup pun, how topical. In Belisario’s defense, he did manage eight saves during his stay as closer, but that’s more a testament to Manager Robin Ventura sticking with him this long. Well, Ventura has had enough. Alrighty then, Ventura, who’s your closer now? Jake Petricka finished out the game last night and notched his second save of the season. Petricka has a 2.08 ERA and 1.27 WHIP on the year and looks like the most likely choice to take over the closer role. Javy Guerra, Zach Putnam and Daniel Webb could also be names to watch and see chances were the Sox to go to a committee. Whatever the case, Ronald is out. And although he may not apologize for killing your ratios over the past month, you can drop him now, which is definitely something you won’t have to feel sorry about.

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I wrote a letter to Dayan Viciedo the other day and promised to sing about him. After hearing this rhyme, I knew I had to take it for me. I couldn’t think of a better way to explain my infatuation because there is life and there is Dayan, at least for this week. Here’s what I’m singing to him:

I’m like Tre, that’s Cuba Gooding
I know I’m good at
Dayan of thirst
Dayan of thirst
Dayan of thirst

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Or is it Jean a buy quoi? Voulez-vous coucher avec moi Segura? Mmm hmmm gotcha gotcha Segura da da? A little help! I’m stuck in a Moulin Rouge-inspired snow globe and I can’t get out! For those of you that don’t speak French, but do speak fourteen-year-old text: Jean Seg-U-R-A Buy! Jean Segura has done a lot of bleh with a side of roasted yawnuts. “I see you sitting there on my team and I wonder if I wouldn’t be better with Asdrubal, at least his name makes me giggle,” that’s you wearing a beret, listening to jazz. I hear ya on Segura; he’s been a bore to own. The good news (if you don’t own him) is he has been a bore to own, so you could acquire him for next to nothing. Right now, he’s on pace for 8 HRs, 30 steals and a .260 average with 74 runs and 49 RBIs. Last year, when he broke out, he had 12 steals and 44 steals and a .294 average with 74 runs and 49 RBIs. So, he’s off on average and steals, the rest is negligible. Well, I’d go as far as to say it’s all a negligible difference. If he were to hit for a better average by getting maybe three extra hits a week, wouldn’t his steals go up and his counting stats? Rhetorical! So, is he capable of a better average? Certainly. Or sointly, if you’re reading this in a Curly voice. He’s fast — no shock there — so a .300+ BABIP wouldn’t be a stretch, and right now it’s below .280. If his luck just neutralizes, he’ll hit for a better average. It’s not like his strikeouts have gone up — they’ve actually gone down. It’s not he’s not making solid contact — his line drive percentage has gone up too. He’s hitting more ground balls and they’re getting caught. I wouldn’t trade the farm, but I’d definitely look to see if I could acquire him. Anyway, here’s some more players to Buy or Sell this week in fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?