Fantasy Baseball Advice

Welcome to week 12, please wipe your feet before you enter. For most leagues this week is the halfway point. Peripheral stats are darn near impossible to make up this late in the season, but the impossible is what fuels fantasy fires. Not the ones started by Drew Barrymore though. So if you’re in a keeper league now may be the perfect time to use strategy and build for tomorrow. Grab guys that may be expensive now but even more expensive next year. The best thing about fantasy is that there will usually be a next year, and what’s wrong with winning next year. Nothing! Sorry if I yelled that too loud. So follow me as we explore this weeks low end pitching options for fantasy baseball, enjoy. (Please keep in mind that match-ups and pitchers may change.)

ONE START OPTIONS:

6/22
Nick Blackburn @Sf – Vogelsong
Joel Pineiro @ Fla – Hand
John Lanna vs. Sea – Bedard

6/23
Chris Capuano vs. Oak – Godfrey
Felipe Paulino vs. Ari – Hudson
Jason Marquis vs. Sea – Pineda

6/24
Carlos Carrasco @SF – Sanchez
Matt Harrison @NYM – Pelfrey
Tim Stauffer vs. Atl – Lowe

Carl Pavano (@SF vs. Bumgarner, @Mil vs. Narveson) Typical Snidely Whiplash. Throws a couple decent games in a row to gain our trust and then goes all Waco on your weekly peripherals. K’s are yuck and away ERA is double yuck.

Ivan Nova (@Cin vs. Cueto, Col vs. Nicasio) Still plays for the yanks, so he has that going for him. Road Era is a run lower. K/BB rate is muy mal. Revert back to first sentence for positive news.

Livan Hernandez (Sea vs. Fister, @CHW vs. Floyd) Comes off a complete game gem against the Cards. Home ERA is under a deuce. Recent quote from Jamie Moyer, “Man, he throws hard.”

Jeff Niemann (@Mil vs. Narveson, @Hou vs. Happ) Hopefully grandma’s ouchie cream and a popsicle made him feel better. Still a bottom of the rotation guy with minimal K potential.

Josh Outman (@NYM vs. Gee, @Phi vs. ?) Thanks to Cahill for falling on the grenade last week and moving up a day. Josh makes consecutive fantasy posts for the first time in….sorry had to look it up…forever.

Doug Fister (@Was vs. Hernandez, Fla vs. Sanchez) Pitching decent and falls into the Paul Maholm category of pitchers with mid 3 ERA’s with losing records. ERA half run better at home.

Charlie Morton (Bal vs. Arrieta, Bos vs. Beckett) Every time he pitches twice in a week I give him a new nickname, this week it’s “Pre Med.” Looks like Halladay without the degree. Still struggles against LH.

Derek Holland (Hou vs. Happ, NYM vs. Gee) xFIP of a run less than his ERA. Seems to be on a two good, one bad stretch. Home ERA isn’t very friendly. K-rate makes it a little more tolerable.

Chris Narveson (TB vs. Niemann, Min vs. Pavano) Discussed him before and he is just frustrating. Cruises through 4 innings than walks a couple and boom goes the dynamite. xFIP lower by a run. Decent K’s, good lineup, just pukes up too many leads.

Joe Saunders (@KC vs. Hochevar, @Det vs. Penny) Zona scores some runs, better ERA on the road and decent match-ups. Sounds like a delicious recipe for a buy low weekly add to me.

It’s back again, but this time for longer. No, you won’t need any ointment, it’s just interleague play. It starts at the tail end of this week and continues into week 12. I am still not a fan for fantasy porpoises. (That’s a league of dolphins called Hard to the Albacore, in case you were wondering.) Interleague messes up everything; lineups, in game situations and my ability to conjugate verbs. So be careful when setting your lineups this week, certain players will lose at bats, causing them to lose a little value. On the other hand, pitching gains some value. As they face teams that never have seen them before or just not as frequent. So grabbing an extra relief pitcher or spot starter makes a lot of sense to me. So good luck this week as you peruse the week 11 low end pitching options for fantasy baseball. (Please keep in mind that match-ups and pitchers may change.)

ONE START OPTIONS:

6/15
Mark Buerhle @ Min – Blackburn
Charlie Morton @ Hou – Happ
Joe Saunders vs. SF – Bumgarner

6/16
Mike Minor vs. NYM – Dickey
Ryan Vogelsong @ Ari – Kennedy
Jeff Francis vs. Oak – Godfrey

6/17
Scott Baker vs. SD – Richard
John Lannan vs. Bal – Matusz
Kevibn Correia PIT @ Cle – Tomlin

Randy Wolf (@CHC vs. Dempster, @Bos vs. Lester) Unfortunately, road ERA is higher, that and he faces the demon known as the Red Sox lineup. Last five starts 1-0 with a 2.58 ERA. I still reminisce of the days when fans used to wear wolf masks and do a semi-Thriller inspired dance in Philly.

Carlos Carrasco (@NYY vs. Burnett, Pit vs. Maholm) Comes off the stellar start vs. the Triple-A team in Minnesota. ERA 2 runs lower on the road. Innings he needs to build, good stretch I see in his future. Thanks, Yoda.

Josh Outman (KC vs. Duffy, SF vs. Cain) Seems like Oakland has a series of plug and play pitchers that keep them in games. Low K potential. The Coliseum helps anyone outperform because of its wasted space, which is getting its own home and garden show.

Alex Cobb (@Det vs. Coke, Fla vs. Nolasco) Stays in rotation, for now, until Niemann is better from his boo-boo. Never going to be an ace, but should be a decent fill-in guy for AL only or deep leagues in the future. Needs to stop with the free passes to be effective.

Mike Pelfrey (@Pit vs. Maholm, Ana vs. Chatwood) Previously lambasted by the Buccos. Is usually aided by the confines of Flushing. Gives up way too many hits to be a consistent fantasy contributor. Based on match-ups it’s worth a shot.

Aaron Cook (SD vs. Moseley, Det vs. Verlander) Lunch pail, deep end of the pool pitcher. Only desperation and a start at Petco make him special. Well, what do ya know? He has neither this week. If he really is a cook, then thousands die from food poisoning.

Carlos Villanueva (Bal vs. Britton, @Cin vs. Arroyo) Chuck New House is still undefeated as a SP. Toronto has been killing the ball and last time I checked run support is important. LH batting .155 against.

Paul Maholm (NYM vs. Pelfrey, @Cle vs. Carrasco) A victim of fantasy unfairness. Run support. Still sports an ERA under 3.40 and only has 2 wins to show for his efforts. ERA at 2.45 at home and BAA is a low .223.

Jason Vargas (Ana vs. Haren, Phi vs. Hamels) Is on the cusp of fantasy legitimacy and then this week happens, 2 starts against two top ten pitchers. Previous mastery of Angels helps his cause for an add this week, Philly start makes me regret what I just typed.

Bronson Arroyo (@CHC vs. Dempster, Tor vs. Villanueva) Named after Charles Bronson, and all along I thought he was named after the “Perfect Strangers” guy, who knew? Falls into the same category as Wolf as guys who are always at the top of the waiver wire but are never on a team long.

Josh Collmenter ARI (SF vs. Cain, CHW vs. Floyd) His ERA is barely enough to buy an ice cream, 1.11. His numbers scream out luck, but why not take advantage of a good thing while it lasts; his pitching not the ice cream. Though I was thinking the same thing.

Okay, now picture you’re a Mets fan who was in a coma for three months and you just looked at the starting lineup.  You’d be like, “Jeremy who?  Cora what?  Tatis huh?  Why are the Mets playing a split squad game in June?”  Um, yeah.  Listen, Comatose Mets fan, you might want to sit down.  Carlos Beltran hit the DL yesterday with a sore knee.  The Mets are saying Beltran should be back in two weeks.  Yeah, and Reyes will be back three weeks ago.  At this point, you really can’t do anything but wait for Beltran to return.  Hopefully, there’s some decent outfielders on waivers for you to grab in the interim.  I grabbed David Murphy and Jonny “Hey, Khalil give me back my H” Gomes.  Gomes should be the Reds DH for interleague so he should get starts for a week, then I’ll need to look elsewhere.  Jake Fox is a decent play in interleague, as well.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Ervin Santana – Went to the Disgraceful List.  No way!  Come on!  Really?  Shocker!

Scott Kazmir – Solid rehab outing where he didn’t walk anyone.  Might need one or two more rehab starts then should be back.

Alex Gonzalez – Had bone chips removed yesterday and will be out for a month.  Hopefully the doctor had more success in removing those chips than Gonzalez has had hitting baseballs.

Grady Sizemore – Says he’ll be ready to return today.  Better get out your “I Heart Grady,” t-shirt.

Yunel Escobar – Out with a strained hip flexor.  This could totally cramp his shuffleboard game.  Yunel dealt with this earlier in the year and it sidelined him for a week, so he might miss some time.

Josh Outman – Has elbow tightness and is, um, out, man.

Trevor Cahill – 7 IP, 1 ER.  Turned in a good outing in what was a good matchup.

Aaron Cook – 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners.  So far he’s had two games all year that were terrible.  Sometimes safe works.

Matt Palmer – 4 2/3 IP, 6 ER.  Palmer?  I hardly knew her!  Oofa!  So far I’ve said about Palmer, “I wouldn’t touch him in 12 team leagues,” “Before you get crazy with yourself, he’s a thirty-year-old rookie and he’s not Dennis Quaid,” and “Who’s Matt Palmer?  A soap opera actor?” And that’s me quoting me!  So you kinda get the sense of what I’m thinking about Palmer going forward.

Ryan Ludwick – Second homer in the last four games.  Your time to buy low on him may be running out.

Daniel Murphy – HR yesterday.  Batting around .350 for the last week.  Let’s not be delusional that he’s going to completely fill-in for Beltran on your fantasy team, but maybe he can give you one hot week then find someone else next week.  Pick and troll.

Rafael Soriano – Got the save yesterday with Gonzalez taking care of lefties in the 8th.  Soriano has 45 Ks in 32 2/3 IP, .98 WHIP and a 1.38 ERA.  Um, that’s pretty good.

Albert Pujols – Reports say he called his shot on Sunday.  Would that be an HGH shot?

Joey Votto – Set to return on Tuesday, saying he felt batty, but in a good way.

With 2 HRs yesterday, Adam Lind now has 36/11/43/.313 on the year.  I know, Cody Ross has looked good for stretches.   Even Aaron Rowand has had a week or two here and there.  But why are people asking me if Adam Lind should be sold off or worse dropped?  You don’t want 85/27/100/.285?  I know he was as boring as dog balls for the month of May.  Well, he’s batting near-.500 in June.  He’s shoved into the middle of the Blue Jays lineup like a Jenga piece no one will touch.  Heart. Of. The. Lineup.  Dear Razzball reader, let’s look at his OBP, shall we?  He had a .380 OBP in 1500+ ABs in the minors and a .377 OBP so far this year.  In the minors, he had a .318 average, he has a .313 average this year.  He has power potential AND can hit for average.  (Caps for emphasis and the hyperopic.)  Fastballs?  He likes them.  Breaking balls?  Don’t bother him.  Sure, it took him until 25 to develop into a major leaguer, but so what?  What were you doing at 25?  I was trying to figure what I wanted to do at 26.  Lind’s biggest drawback, he can’t field.  Holy heffin’ hey in the screw hole, that doesn’t matter to us.  Lind’s good, don’t be scared.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Josh Hamilton – Out 4-6 weeks with an abdominal tear.  His owners out 4-6 weeks with tears.

Jose Valverde – Fist pumps could be back as early as this weekend.  Trade Hawkins!  Joking.  Unless you can… No, that’s wrong.  But really what is right without someone doing wrong?  Nietzsche!

C.J. Wilson – I was remiss in leaving him off yesterday’s roundup.  Frank² could be headed to the DL again with shoulder soreness.  Wilson should be owned in all leagues.

Brandon McCarthy – Headed to the DL with a stress fracture of shoulder.  Votto feels for him, he has a stress fracture of his melon.

Chris Davis – 0-for-3, 3 Ks yesterday.  Has 87 Ks in 191 ABs.  Wow.  Listen to this from Matthew Berry, “I’m sticking with Davis.  Look, you didn’t draft him for his batting average anyway, and he is hitting for power with 12 home runs…. Keep in mind he was a career .302 hitter in the minors.”  Oh, okay.  Luckily, he only has two sides of his mouth.  If that is indeed his mouth he’s using.

Jason Marquis – 6 2/3 IP, 2 ER.  Leads the NL in Wins.  Yup, makes sense.

Torii Hunter – Sidelined with a nagging groin.  I had one of those when I was 19.  I almost went blind because of it.  Sorry, I hate to work blue.  Pun intended.

Chris Iannetta – Due back on Tuesday.  If you’re nursing some schmohawk catcher and Iannetta’s on waivers, act like ya know, MC Lyte.

Clint Barmes – Similar to Hamilton, he’s on a tear.  Only the good kind.  He’s 13-for-31 with a homer and 7 RBIs in his last 7 games.

Garrett Atkins – He’s not even starting anymore.

Randy Johnson - Didn’t he just pitch?  Nice, Giants.  Throw your 45-year-old on short rest.  What, are they trying to get out of an innings clause or something?

Armando Galarraga – 6 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 11 baserunners vs. the White Sox, a team that has a .247 average against righties.  I’m not sure if anyone’s holding out hope Galarraga’s going to be good again like last year, well, he’s not.

Jeremy Bonderman – 4 IP, 6 ER and now the White Sox are .250 against righties.

Miguel Cabrera – Returned and went 0-for-7 in the doubleheader.  Hey, at least he’s back.  I have Jose Reyes and Carlos Quentin playing spades on my DL.

Alexei Ramirez - 5-for-9 with one homer in the doubleheader and now batting .261.  BTW, Alfonso Soriano hit .284 in April, Alexei hit .214.  Soriano hit .216 in May, Alexei hit .281.  Who will have the conch shell in June?

Gordon Beckham – 0 for his first 13 ABs.  Beckham, you’re proving Ozzie right.

Jose Contretras – One hit over eight innings as he returned from the minors, though for him it should be called the seniors.  He could very well get shelled in his next start.

Chipper Jones – HR yesterday, three in two days.  So this is why people own him… Cool, now when do I trade him?  When he sneezes?  Hiccups?  Someone, throw me a bone.

Nick Stavinoha – Went 0-for-4 wearing Pujols’s jersey.

Andy Sonnanstine – 7 IP, 5 ER.  Jeff Niemann stole his juice.

Sean West – 8 IP, 0 ER. I know, woo-hoo.  I looked at his 60 walks in 100 2/3 innings in Double A, his 22 walks in 42 2/3 innings in Triple A and I vomited on my wall and it spelled out, “Don’t pickup.”

Johnny Damon – 12th homer yesterday.  What’s his over/under set at for homers?  24?  I’m taking the over.  By 2.  Who wants some action?

Randy Choate – Maddon brought Choate into the 8th inning of a 4-3 game yesterday.  A game the Rays were losing.

Andrew McCutchen – 4-for-7 with 2 triples, batting leadoff as the unknown soldyjer’s light burns in the two hole.  McCutchen’s batting .400; somebody reach behind the Häagen-Dazs and take Ted Williams’s brain out of the freezer, he’s gonna wanna see this!  I’d sell McCutchen right now if you don’t need speed.

Josh Outman – 6 IP, 3 ER and has an ERA of 3.17.  I swear to you, he’s not this good, but he gets the Giants next time out.  All aboard!

Andrew Bailey – 2 days, 2 saves.  He’s the closer, guys.  Stop owning Ziegler, people in your league are starting to wonder if you’ve abandoned your team.

Kevin Kouzmanoff – 2-for-4 yesterday with 4 RBIs.  A homer the day before.  I’m not saying he’s God’s gift to cornermen, but as teams pitch around A-Gonz, Kouz could pick up some scraps.

David Ortiz – His doctor prescribed eyedrops to hopefully help with his hitting.  Who’s his optometrist, Victor Conte?

Tommy Hanson was called up by the Braves yesterday.   His numbers:  66 1/3 IP, 90 Ks, 0.86 WHIP, 1.49 ERA in Triple A.  Hello, beautiful, may I interest you in this Sutter Home White Zinfandel?  It’ll go lovely with your 90/17 K/BB ratio.  How about some honey mustard pretzels to go with your 12.2 K/9 ratio?  Ah, yes, those were some great times when you dominated in the Arizona Fall League with a .63 ERA in just over 28 innings.  Chuckle, chuckle… Yes, those were the best prospects in baseball and you held them to 10 hits and 49 Ks.   But can he dominate in the majors?  Much has been made of rookie pitchers at this site.  More often than not, they drop a roofie in your box of wine and do unthinkable things to your Forbidden City.  Hanson seems like he can handle his own in the big leagues, but remember in Double A he was great, but not insane with a 3.03/1.13/114 and a 10.5 K/9 in 98 IP.  If Hanson comes out and dominates on Saturday, his value will go through the roof.  If he stumbles, you might get stuck with Cueto of ’08.  Rookie pitchers are very risky.  If you need a hitter, Hanson’s trade value might be at its peak.  Now if you need pitching and you can handle the risk, Hanson can provide the reward.  In a keeper, obviously you hold him tight like your Grandma holds her bucket of quarters in Atlantic City.  Anyway, here’s what else we saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Nate McLouth – Traded to the Braves.  This doesn’t do much for his value.  Cox can’t even sit lefties against lefties anymore because the Braves lineup is basically all lefties.  McLouth’s a 25/25 guy with a so-so average.   However, this opens the door for… Wait for it… It’s coming… Okay, here it is…

Andrew McCutchen – The Pirates fleet-footed centerfielder (no, he doesn’t have ships for feet).  I picked him up in one 15 team league.  He was just dissected last week in our Scouting the Unknown.  Best case scenario is .280/25 steals with maybe 5 homers.  He’s Dexter Fowler, ya’ll!  I’d pick him up in 12 team leagues unless you’re bloated with steals, but, really, who ever has too many steals?  Remember though, if you pick him up, you might have to watch Pirates highlights.

Gordon Beckham – The 2008 1st round draft pick of the White Sox has been promoted, presumably to man 3rd base (bye bye Betemit) and maybe see time at 2nd or short.  He doesn’t have much of a minor league record to go on, but the 200 or so minor-league ABs show solid AVG and 15-20 HR pop.  Upside for this year is Tulo’s rookie year.  Downside for this year is Tulo since his rookie year.  So dust off that waiver claim in mixed leagues, if you’ve got a mediocre MI.  Between Clayton Richard and Gordon Beckham, White Sox GM Ken Williams has seen a lot more success in the draft after focusing on prospects that sound ultra-British.  How’d he miss out on Collin Balester?

Ian Stewart – 2-for-4 with a 3 run HR yesterday.  That’s his first time in weeks that he made contact twice in a game let alone safely put them in play.  He’s barely usable in 12-team leagues now with his selling points as follows:  1) He has 2B/3B eligibility and is 1 game away from OF,  2) He has serious power.  Even with his Razztastic .188 AVG, he has 8 HRs and 23 RBIs, 3) He does walk a good amount (near .300 OBP), and 4) He enjoys a good slap and tickle as much as Clayton Richard and Gordon Beckham.

Jose Reyes – Now won’t return on Friday as he aggravated his calf and fantasy owners.  Is it me or is there more injuries this year than any year in the history of the world?  WTF?  Seriously.  Can we get our shizz together and stay healthy?  Ta!

Joey Votto – Reds have gone on record saying Votto is dealing with some personal issues.  Dusty said, “I once hiccuped and swallowed my toothpick when managing the Cubs.  I didn’t think much of it, but felt a light-headed for a couple weeks.  I started Kerry Wood 5 straight days during one stretch when I meant to give him an off day in between.  Then I sneezed and a toothpick shot out of my ear and poked Mark Prior in the shoulder, which caused it to dislocate.”

Laynce Nix – While younger bro, Jayson (mom & dad likes them unnecessary Y’s) waits for an opportunity in Chicago, the older Nix is getting some love from Dusty over Dickerson & Gomes.  A 2 HR day today was rather Brucian of him, but ignore this Ranger/Brewer retread unless you’ve got some inside dope that the Nix brothers got the same ‘strength trainer’ as the Giles brothers used to employ.

Derek Lowe – 7 IP, 2 ER.  Really wish I owned him in a league.  No, he’s not dazzling, but it’s so nice to have a guy that consistently gives up 3 or fewer runs.   So far he’s only had one game where he’s given up more than 4 runs and has a 3.40 ERA on the year.

Ted Lilly – 7 IP, 1 ER.  What I said about Lowe, but with a few more strikeouts.

Scott Feldman – Now 5-0 with a 3.79 ERA.  And he pitches for Texas.  It’s like that Bizarro Seinfeld episode where Feldman is the considerate and productive Kramer.  Why do we have the feeling that we’ll be cursing him out like the real Kramer would once summer comes around in Arlington?

Hunter Pence – 4-for-5, .346 on the year and battling Tejada in the NL batting race.  Speaking of bizarro, when did Pence decide to start drawing walks like Picasso drew guernicas?  He has as many walks as he did his whole rookie year in 2007.  He has only one less walk than strikeout this year.  Last year, he had 40 walks and 124 Ks.  That’s a terrific trend.  Maybe he can talk to Frenchy.

Jeff Niemann – Niemann!  Hey, we got a theme going here.  He threw a complete game, two-hitter with 9 Ks.  Not sure what’s in the water down in Tampa (though it’s probably served at Hooter’s), but it seems like every year they get a great performance from a not-so-great pitcher (Sonnanstine ’08).  Still, I wouldn’t trust Niemann going forward.

Jhonny Peralta – Hit a 3-run HR tonight which ups his season total to….2.  For a SS whose only value is his power.  Oh well, he’s still doing better than fellow silent-H shortstop, Khalil Greene, who is suffering from a harshed mellow.

Kyle Lohse – Left the game with forearm discomfort.  The Cards trainer said this was a similar injury to what Royce Clayton suffered in ’98 when he greeted McGwire in the dugout after a homer.  Dave Duncan shrugged his shoulders saying, “Whatever.  I’ll just find another scrub pitcher to turn into a servicable starter.  These reclamation projects are getting too easy.  Someone get me Ankiel.”

Dr. Brian Bannister – The Incredible Hulk of Crap.

Jonathan Broxton – Hit 100 MPH on three straight pitches.  Cust kayin’.

Josh Outman – 6 2/3 IP, 2 ER.  He has a near-4.50 FIP.  Caveat, Razzballer.

Adrian Beltre – 3-for-5, HR and 3 RBIs.  He’s hot.  I know you don’t want to believe it but he is; .357 over the last 7 games and 8-for-10 over his last two.

Ben Zobrist – Hit a grand slam for his 10th HR.  Is this one of those body-switch movies between BJ Upton and Ben Zobrist?  Which one’s Fred Savage?

J.A. Happ – 7 IP, 0 ER.  Okay, Happ-shot, now the schedule gets hard.  Wait, he gets the Mets in Metco next.  Hmm… You can’t spell Tummyaches without M-E-T-S.

Kevin Youkilis – Left the game with an ankle injury.  One exuberant fan thought Youk’s ankle was broken and yelled Opa!