Fantasy Baseball Advice

Roy Oswalt pulled something in his back and is presumably headed to the DL.  The bad news here is he was supposedly a 2nd half pitcher in some people’s minds, though my mind wasn’t yet made up.  It’s a guy’s prerogative to change his mind, or just not make it up at all.  As someone who has struggled with lower back pain for most of his adult life… Oh, who am I kidding?  I’m fit as a fiddle.  I once dwarf bowled a 170.  (Of course, he helped by kicking over that 7-10 split.)  Wait, what was I saying?  Oh, yeah!  Oswalt.  Yeah, he’s off to see a back specialist, the Astros are calling up Bud Norris, hopefully related to Chuck.  Bud Norris might sound familiar to some of youse.  Why?  Cause I just said his name in the previous sentence.  Hello, Mr. Short-Term Memory.  He also may sound familiar to you because he was in last week’s Scouting the Unknown.  For those too lazy to click-through, his walk rate isn’t pretty.  I’d grab him in NL-Only leagues and take a flier on him in 12 team and deeper mixed leagues if you really need the help, but he may cause migraines.  Best case scenario is he foolz (the kids love the Z) some hitters for about a month worth of starts and racks up the strikeouts while barely making it out of the 5th inning because of a high pitch count, see also Clay/ton Buchh/shaw.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

LaTroy Hawkins – His MRI came back negative on his back so he’s heading to the DL with shingles.  Whaaat?!?  Don’t you need to check off a few things before going from an MRI to shingles?  It’s not a bulging disk… Okay, let’s check for shingles.

Randy Johnson – Torn rotator cuff.  Just be glad I didn’t go with the title, Torn Johnson.

Clay Buchholz – 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 11 baserunners and tied me to the WHIPping post.  The home plate ump looked like he wouldn’t call a strike.  Put Fieldin Culbreth behind home; he’ll call a strike.  Just be glad Buchholz got out of the 5th.  Against the A’s no less.  Not a great sign.  Go after a hitter.  Pitch to contact.  Trust your stuff.  Listen to Eck, would ya?

Scott Kazmir – 7 IP, 1 ER.  Sonavabench!  I fully expect him to go out and get rocked in his next game when I start him.  Kazmir, why do you hate me?

Fred Lewis – Took a real long time, but you know who’s finally hot?  Fred Lewis.  Maybe he finally figured out why I called him a sleeper in February.

Eugenio Velez – Hit a homer yesterday.  In other news, water’s dry.

CC Sabathia/Chad Billingsley – Belch.

Tommy Everidge – Was called up to replace Barton.  His minor league numbers look promising, but he’s not available anywhere until ESPN, Y! or CBS put him into their systems.  Though he’s not really worth a pickup yet, except in AL-Only leagues.

George Sherrill – People really seem to want him and it makes sense for the Orioles to trade him away if they can get anything.  As said elsewhere by me, you don’t need a closer to finish last.  The catch, and there’s always one, Baez and Johnson haven’t looked good at all recently.  It may come down to *cover your children’s eyes if they’re reading this* a committee.  I know!  Terrible.

Matt Wieters – 4-for-5, but what about Gregg Zaun?!

Kevin Correia – 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 Ks, 8 baserunners.  Perfectly acceptable game for a HodgePadre in an away game.  Unfortunately, I refuse to start him anywhere but home…

Heath Bell – Another guy that seems like he might be on the move.  And another situation that isn’t crystal clear.  Mujica’s held the 8th for the majority of the season, but he’s faltered recently.  Gregerson’s been fine, but he’s Luke Gregerson.  Mike Adams has been terrific too.  But he’s not even Luke Gregerson.  I’d hold Mujica or Gregerson, in that order.

Everth Cabrera – 3-for-4, 2 steals.  I loved EverCab when he first came up, then he did nothing for two weeks.  So I dropped him and then he did this to me (6 steals in the last week).  Yesterday in the comments, this was said by frequent commenter, Tom, “Hey remember that time you got back from church camp and destroyed all of your rebellious, edgy EverCab albums?  And remember that time 3 weeks later when you stopped dating that girl from camp, and you were really pissed that you threw them out?  Today is that day.”

Rafael Soriano – Has now given up runs in two of his last three games.  If you take nothing else away from today’s roundup, Soriano goes through stretches where he’s terrible.  You’ve been warned.

Leo Nunez – Gave up a run, Lindstrom’s due back in a week.  You’ve been warned.  Again.

Nyjer Morgan – Since I already pointed out my goof on EverCab, I’ll cop to this one too.  I bungled Nyjer.  He’s been a very decent SAGNOF source.  I even tried to trade for him in one league.  I think I was ignored.  Hey, don’t take my Garrett Jones.  It’s fine by me (please stay hot Jones, please).

Elvis Andrus – HR and steal yesterday.  No lie, in one league I literally dropped him two days ago.  Momma said there would be days like these…

Clete Thomas – I picked him up and he went 0-for-4.  I grabbed him because he’s batting third for the Tigers.  Why’s he batting third?  I don’t know.  Buy Leyland a pack of Marlboro Reds and maybe he’ll tell you.

Jhonny Peralta – This year he’s carrying the Silent H Torch for him and Khalil, and has three straight games with a homer as he bats over .400 in the last 7 games.

Scott Downs – 2/3 IP, 1 ER.  People were yelling fire in the comments yesterday that Frasor’s due to take over, they might be right.  Downs has given up runs in four of his last five games.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see Downs hit the Disgraceful List.

Chien-Ming Wang – Visited Dr. Freeze and was put on ice for the season.  Imagine Dr. Andrews misunderstood, “Something’s wrong with Wang,” as something was wrong with his wang.  Ah, the yucks a bad Farrelly brothers movie could have with that.

Brad Lidge – 1 IP, 2 ER, Save.  He’s really got the save down pat where he gives up 2 runs.  It’ll be funny in the playoffs when he loses a key game and McCarver’s like, “He’s usually so reliable.”  Joe Buck *interminable pause* then, “We’ll be back here tomorrow for game five.”

Dan Haren – 5 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners.  Now has two straight so-so starts by his 1st half of starts’ standards.  Honestly, I was pretty happy with this so-so start.  He gets the Mets in Metco next, so hopefully he can be decently so-so again.

Adam Dunn – Hit a homer out of Miller Park.  Then had his blue ox run the bases.

Mark Buehrle – 6 1/3 IP, 5 ER.  Back to life… Back to reality… and Johnny Vander Meer’s family is once again free to make plans.

Josh Fields – Being dropped from the roster for Mark Kotsay.  Fields wants a trade from the White Sox.  Maybe if you robbed a homer to seal a perfect game, you wouldn’t be getting dropped.  Think about that!

Mark Kotsay – Traded to the White Sox for Brian Anderson.  What’s the point of this trade?  Did Kenny Williams get a look at Kotsay’s wife?  This is the most irrelevant trade since Jose Lima was traded to the Kia Tigers for a bottle of kimchi.

Matt Lindstrom hits the DL with a sore elbow and should be out at least 6 weeks.  He’s fine to drop if you don’t have DL room, since he may not be the closer when/if he returns.  Rudy and I were talking over IM when the news of Matt Lindstrom hitting the DL broke.  We looked at the options.  Dan Meyer or Leo Nunez?  Meyer is a lefty that has been handling righties well this year.  Nunez has posted ERAs of 3.18, 3.77, 6.43 in the first three months of the season and he just hurt his ankle on Tuesday.  We went with Meyer on all of our teams.  At worst, we have a guy who has pitched well.  A few hours later, Nunez said his ankle was fine.  If I had to do it over again, I would’ve went with Nunez because he’s probably first in line for saves.  SAGNOF, after all.  I’m holding Meyer for now just to see how this plays out.  So far, it’s played out with Meyer getting the first save.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Edinson Volquez – Almost a month after heading to the DL, Edinson has elbow inflammation.  This is obviously terrible news for his owners.  An arm setback after almost of a month hiatus usually means he’s not coming back for a while.

Homer Bailey – Should get the call on Saturday.  That call goes like this, “Hey, Dusty here.”  “This is Homer.”  “Simpson?”  “Bailey.”  “What’s up, Homer Bailey?”  “You called me.”  “Oh.”  Dusty puts down the phone at this point and makes Harang throw 200 warmup pitches.  Then Homer hears in the background Dusty telling Paul Janish to hang up the phone.  Bailey’s worth grabbing in NL-Only leagues.  I wouldn’t trust him in mixed leagues shallower than 15 team.  He’s fubar’d too many opportunities at this point to run out and grab him.  And if you do grab him, don’t start him.

Jonny Gomes – HR yesterday as he fills in for Beltran on three of our teams.  (The “our” is for Rudy.)

Aaron Hill/Adam Lind – Both homered, 16th and 15th, respectively.  I feel like I answer lots of trade questions about getting rid of these guys.  Why does everyone want to lose them?  Afraid of happiness?  They’re solid.  Rios or Hill?  Hill.  Lind or Markakis?  Markakis, but not really by much and Lind can out perform him.  30/100 is nothing to sneeze at.  Unless you’re allergic to productive outfielders.

Brad Lidge – Should return today, I’d hold Ryan Madson for the time being, because Lidge has been ready to pitch in 28 games so far this year and has a 7.27 ERA.

Kenshin Kawakami – Was hit with a linedrive to the side of his neck.  Should be fine, according to his doctors that are located over the *pinkie to mouth* Throbs Neck Bridge.

Evan Longoria – Left with moans over his hammy.  He said he’ll be back by Thursday.

Pat Burrell – Hit his 2nd homer of the year.  2nd homer?  That’s awful.  Hopefully, he hasn’t been clogging up too many of your teams.  The good news is if he’s on waivers he gets very hot for stretches.  Could hit 10 homers in the next month.

Matt Garza – 8 IP, 1 ER, 7 Ks vs. Phils.  Last two starts, he couldn’t get through the 6th inning and gave up 4 and 3 runs, respectively.  When Garza pitches, you know you’re going to get something.  What something is a whole different ballgame.

Joe Blanton – 7 IP, 2 ER, 10 Ks.  Yeah, and I had Wolf going all over the place giving up five runs to the White Sox.  Fantasy Baseball, Aggravating you for over twenty years.

Rich Harden – 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 3 Ks, 4 walks.  I’ve never been a fan of Harden.  But I wasn’t a fan of the when-healthy-extremely-effective Rich Harden.  Who is this Rich Harden?  This isn’t him.

David Ortiz – HR yesterday.  I’m willing to admit it, he’s back.  Now you’re still up against a guy who has no position eligibility.  That kills your team’s flexibility.  You see a hot hitter on waivers?  With Ortiz at UTIL, you’ll have no place to put him.

Grady Sizemore – 2nd game back, first homer.  Great sign!  Then again, he hit a homer the day before he went on the DL.  Damn you, half empty glass.

Zach Duke – 6 IP, 1 ER.  Has a 3.09 ERA on the year.  Zoinks!

Adam LaRoche – 3-for-4, 11th homer, 2nd steal, 1 cat saved from a burning building.

Nick Evans – HR yesterday as he got the start at first.  Makes sense for the Mets to give the kid starts over Tatis, not sure if he’ll continue to start over Murphy though.  He may find himself in a platoon of sorts and hurting his breakout potential.  He does have solid pop and a decent eye.  Other than NL-Only keepers, it’s a bit early to be looking at him.

Ricky Nolasco – 7 IP, 0 ER, 7 Ks.  I won’t go as far to say he’s fully back, but I will say he seems fully back.  Modified!

Nick Blackburn – 8 IP, 3 ER, 12 baserunners, 2 Ks.  41 Ks/26 BBs on the year with a 3.11 ERA.  You are a statistical anomaly!

Miguel Olivo – Another homer yesterday.  Has something like 20 homers this month.

Josh Fields – 2 HRs yesterday.  That’s one homer for each start he’s had in the last ten days.

Gavin Floyd – 6 IP, 1 ER.  I hope someone’s riding this wave so I can live vicariously, because I don’t own him in any league. (<–Not by choice.)

Frank Francisco – Being eased back into the closer role.  They ease much longer and he’s going to be back on the DL before he gets another save.

Brandon Morrow – Threw 2 innings three starts ago, 3 innings two starts ago, then 4 innings one start ago.  Guess how many yesterday?  Yup, 5.  Anyone want some action on how many he’s going to throw next time out?

Vladimir Guerrero – Hit his 2nd homer yesterday.  Now only two behind the Subaru pace car of Abreu.

Everth Cabrera – Newest shortstop-schmohawk-SAGNOF guy.  Definitely worth a flier if you need steals.

Vicente Padilla – After a typical start, after a 7 IP, 1 ER start.

Francisco Liriano went four innings and gave up seven runs against a team that absolutely kills lefties in Fenway.  Let’s run down his 3-year averages for the months of the season, starting with April: 6.93, 1.99, 1.51, 2.31, 1.13 and 4.36.  You think he might need some time to get going?  His April combined ERA for the last 3 years, not including this year, is almost 7.  His combined May through August ERAs are under 2. Are you kidding me? Heffin’ hey, trade for him! This might be the best buy you find right now.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Kurt Suzuki – First HR of the season yesterday.  He hit one HR through the middle of June last year.  What is everyone doing at Yankee Stadium?  Is it the Macarena?  The Electric Slide?  No, it’s The Jetstream!

Justin Verlander – 5 IP, 7 ER.  It’ll get better, but it’s not going to get much better to make him a buy candidate.

Joe Saunders – 5 IP, 5 ER.  Take out the Liquid Paper; more corrections to come.

Andre Ethier – Hit his 5th HR yesterday.  Frankly, sometimes I’m wrong. (17% of the time!)  I had my doubts about whether he would produce this year, but he’s doing it.

Hunter Pence – 4th homer, 3rd steal in yesterday’s game.  Marching towards 25/15 and top 30 outfielder status.

Francisco Cordero – 6th save, 1.29 ERA. Member he was a mess in spring training?  Uh-huh.

Kevin Gregg – 1 IP, 1 ER, 6.43 ERA.  Member he was a mess in– Oh, wait.

Johnny Cueto – 7 IP, 0 ER. 2.55 ERA on the season.  In the preseason, I said I was higher on Cueto this year than Volquez.  I wasn’t joking.

Milton Bradley – 0-for-4, 3 Ks.  Batting .043 so far this season when he shows up healthy and it’s not raining.  Cubs fans were booing him yesterday like he was Bartman and a goat’s love child.

Willy Taveras – 0-for-2, batting .268.  Wait, he’s no longer batting .400?  Ah, dim the lights in Ted Williams’s freezer for one more year.

David Purcey – 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER. Still burping.

Omar Vizquel/Ian Kinsler/Andruw Jones – Is there anyone not batting over .400 on the Rangers?  Oh, Salty B. Davis.

Jair Jurrjens – 7 2/3 IP, 0 ER.  1.42 ERA on the year.  I really like Jar-Jar this year.  I don’t think his ERA stays anywhere near where it is, obviously.  But he can keep it around 3.75 with some Ks.

Adam Dunn – 0-for-4. Oh, well. .300’s in the rear view.

Scott Baker – 4 2/3 IP, 6 ER.  Someone’s having a bit of a problem with the long ball.  If you had to ask me if he’s going to rebound in May like CC last year, or if he’s going to become completely unusable like Gorzelanny.  I’d take Gorz and June as the under.  I think Baker’s headed for the Disgraceful List. You don’t give up 7 home runs in 8 and two-thirds and just suddenly say, “Hey, you know what?  I just realized I was supposed to be throwing the ball harder.  And in better locations.”

Brian Bannister – Maybe he just likes pitching in April.  Pumpkin’s ETA is one week.

Josh Fields – HR, 3-for-5, batting in the 2 hole.  If this sticks, and, with Ozzie, anything’s possible, this could boost Fields’s value a lot.

Carlos Villanueva – Back as the setup man.  Only he was setting up Todd Coffey.  The Baron, frequent commenter/guest poster, pegged Coffey as an out of nowhere closer that gets 30 saves this year as Hoffman continues to get injured.  Not as crazy as it sounds.

Chris Young – 7 IP, 6 baserunners, 0 ER.  I like him; you know that.  But it sure don’t hurt when there’s only one guy in the opposing starting lineup hitting .300.

John Danks – 7 IP, 1 ER.  I feel like this guy isn’t getting the respect he deserves.  So far I’ve mentioned him in two of three Fantasy Baseball Buy/Sells as a Buy.  I put him as a starter to target in the preseason.  What do I have to do?  Help me, help you.

John Maine – 5.2 IP, 5 ER.  Outdueled by Joel Pineiro.  I just vomited onto my wall and it reads, “Punt.”

B.J. Ryan – 1 IP, 3 ER. Downs wasn’t much better making this a save situation in the first place by giving up a run.

Rafael Soriano – Got the save yesterday.  It was a tied game and Cox brought in his lefty closer into a tight game to face a tough lefty.  Don’t need to read too much into it.  Soriano’s 2nd in line, we knew that already though.

LaTroy Hawkins – Joey Valgreen’s decomposing right before our ojos – bad back, ankle, and calf.    We have no faith whatsoever in Hawkins but if he asked us to the SAGNOF dance, we’d accept the offer.  If you’ve got Valverde, go buy yourself some LaTroy Handcuffs…

Jay Bruce – Another HR.  This time I had him in my lineup.  Bruuuuuce!

Jeremy Guthrie – 6 IP, 5 ER.  Gotta know when to hold ‘em and know when to fold ‘em.  His team gives him no chances for wins, he faces the top offenses in baseball all the time, he doesn’t strikeout that many guys and he’s only a 4 ERA pitcher to begin with.   You win, world of Guthrie haters.  Are you happy?

Melky Cabrera – 2 HRs yesterday.  4 HRs in 23 ABs this year.  Everybody, come on!  We’re doing The Jetstream! (What? Trying too hard?)

by Lou Poulas of Fantasy Insider Online

The key to any draft – whether it is auction style, scratch, or keeper – is to find value where your competitors don’t see it. Each year owners scour the web and other print publications for information on sleepers, injuries, and any type of data they can get their hands on to help weed through the hundreds of available players to discover who’ll breakout in the coming year.

This is at best a painstaking exercise at the worst a fruitless one. Each publication has their own ideas and frankly they don’t always do a great job of backing up their beliefs. Sometimes they even contradict each other.

An alternative way to look for value is through gauging your competitor’s belief in certain players, and anticipate where they will fall in the draft. A common bias in all leagues is to put too much emphasis in how a player faired in the previous season, instead of looking at a player’s career path as a whole. Statistics fluctuate annually (sometimes through luck, other times due to legitimate reasons such as injuries) and for established players most of it is just noise. A player may simply have a good or bad luck year.

A quick way to get at this data is to compare the Fantasy Rank of the previous year to their projected rank to the upcoming season. Large differences often signify where an owner may over or undervalue a player, and knowing this allows better planning for your draft. I’ve identified some batters who are likely to be valued incorrectly.

Overvalued – These players are likely to be drafted earlier than they should be. They still may be good players, even great, but don’t plan your draft strategy on obtaining their services.

Aaron Rowand – At 29 years of age, Rowand had his career year in 2007, setting career highs in R, 2B, HR, RBI, and OBP. A great rule of thumb is to never pay a premium for players coming off a career year as they are almost always going to disappoint. Rowand is no different. If you need more reasons to avoid him, remember he’s leaving his bandbox of a park (Citizens Bank) for San Francisco which is average at best. Plus, and more importantly, he’ll be surrounded by one of the worst everyday lineups in baseball.

Magglio Ordonez – I like Ordonez, he’ll certainly be a good player this year, but too much of his value in 2007 was in due high batting average (.363). He is a career .312 hitter with a previous high of .320 and in 2008 projects to a line of .308, 85 R, 20 HR, 94 RBI which is more in line with a top-20 Outfielder than the Top-3 version he was in 2007.

Mike Lowell – I admit I dislike Lowell and usually avoid him at all costs. This didn’t work out so well for me last year, but it will work out fine for me in ’08:

2007: .324 AVG, 79 R, 21 HR, 120 RBI, 3 SB, 8th Ranked 3B
2008: .283 AVG, 68 R, 15 HR, 77 RBI, 3 SB, 18th Ranked 3B

Other Mentions
For each player below, the difference between his 2007 Rank and 2008 Projected Rank is displayed. All Rankings are “within the position” as opposed to overall.

-20: Ichiro Suzuki, OF (17, 37)
-20: Randy Winn, OF (40, 60)
-19: Eric Byrnes, OF (2, 21)
-11: Shane Victorino, OF (29, 40)
-10: Placido Polanco, 2B (9, 19)
-10: Casey Blake, 3B (12, 22)
-6: JJ Hardy, SS (9, 15)
-5: Khalil Green, SS (6, 11)

Undervalued – the heart of every winning season is finding the draft day steal.

Nick Swisher – The new Chicago White Sox center fielder had a down year in 2007, batting just .265 while achieving close the bear minimum of counting stats required for a fantasy outfielder – 78 R, 84 RBI, 22 HR. With no speed, Swisher ranked the 38th best in the OF in 2007.

2008 looks to be a bit different. Why? Swisher is better than what he showed last year and is moving from an extreme pitchers park to an above average hitters park. His projected stats are improved almost across the board t0 91 R, 94 RBI, 30 HR. His batting average still figures to be low (.264) but this projection makes him a top 20 outfielder.

Alfonso Soriano – Many, including myself, had Soriano ranked 1st coming into last season and he never did live up to expectations, even when on the field. He missed almost a month of playing time, but even projected over 160 games his 2007 stats don’t electrify – 39 HR, 114 R, 83 RBI, 23 SB. Very good of course, but not worthy of a 1st overall pick.

Fast forward to 2008. Owners still have sour tastes in their mouths having spent $40+ on him last year, and are likely ready to stay away this draft day. His projections are still great though – 35 HR, 97 RBI, 91 R, 22 SB. Watch him fall a bit and grab him early in the second round.

Miguel Tejada – We can all agree Tejada is no longer the elite shortstop that he was a few years ago. Coming off an injury plagued and disappointing 2007, Tejada finds himself with a new team and ready to start anew. He is 32 years old and not likely to completely self destruct. For fantasy owners, the better news is that his counting stats were held down last year due to his missed playing time. He hit 18 HR, with 72 R and 81 RBI making him a lower tier option at shortstop.

His projections are solid – .297 AVG, 76 R, 19 HR, 85 RBI, 4 SB and perhaps more importantly his competition will not be as good. Khalil Greene, Orlando Cabrera, JJ Hardy, Julio Lugo, Jhonny Peralta, and Edgar Renteria were all ranked higher than him last year but project to be ranked worse than him this year. Let your fellow owners draft this crew before Tejada, and a few rounds later get the same value for less cost.

Other Mentions
For each player below, the difference between his 2007 Rank and 2008 Projected Rank is displayed. All Rankings are “within the position” as opposed to overall.

+19: Andruw Jones, OF (31, 12)
+16: Vernon Wells, OF (42, 26)
+9: Rafael Furcal, SS (15, 6)
+7: Troy Glaus, 3B (22, 15)
+5: Miguel Tejada, SS (14, 9)
+5: Tad Iguchi, 2B (19, 14)
+5: Aramis Ramirez, 3B (10, 5)
+5: Josh Fields, 3B (16, 11)
+4: Alex Gordon, 3B (17, 14)

Final Note: Earlier I said, “A common bias in all leagues is to put too much emphasis in how a player faired in the previous season, instead of looking at a player’s career path as a whole.” This only works for established players and you should of course pay specific attention to players at the very beginning or very end of their careers.

While watching the New York Football Giants leave the New England Patriots crying like a bunch of little girls who just learned that the American Girl store closes at 9 and not at 9:30 like their fathers assured them, I received a keeper question from Herb Urban, humorist and man with an unhealthy obsession with John Oates. (Being a baseball blog, you might think I’m talking about John Oates, the second rate catcher from the 1976-82ish era. You’d be wrong. Herb’s crackers over the short, mustachioed member of Hall and Oates.) Anyway, check out Herb’s site for yourself. Now onto the Andy LaRoche/Josh Fields’ keeper question.

Grey,

Sorry to keep asking for your input on young players. I took over a team in an indefinite keeper that was an utter mess and I’ve been trying to rebuild for the future all off-season. The previous owner only had Morneau, Cano, Mauer, Mariano Rivera and nothing else. I was able to turn those guys into Ian Kinsler, Rickie Weeks, Delmon Young, Nick Swisher, Brad Hawpe, Rich Hill, John Maine, Joe Nathan, Clay Buchholz, Joba Chamberlain, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Josh Fields, Jered Weaver and Andy LaRoche. So I’m trying to decide whether Fields, Weaver or LaRoche are worth keeping in a 12-team league. I have the first pick in the draft with all eyes on Billy Butler, unless I can trade for him.

Fields came to me with Nathan for Rivera, and strikes me as a very interesting guy to watch. Your thoughts on him will be greatly appreciated. I look forward to reading them, and promise to stop bugging you with questions about my team.

Thanks,
Herb

Herb,

First, that’s a Musharraf-type coup getting the players you did for what you had. Since this is an indefinite keeper league, you’re looking at hitting (LaRoche or Fields) over pitching (Weaver). I’d agree with that. If you can also keep Weaver, I’d consider it, but I don’t know what’s out there or how many players you can keep. At this point, you already seem to be keeping a lot. So I’m going to assume this is a battle between Andy LaRoche and Josh Fields. Let’s look at some projections.

Josh Fields — Rotowire projects 76/27/86/7/.267 with a .345 OBP. Our in-house statistician, Rudy Gamble, predicts Fields will have a season on par with Edwin Encarncion. Personally, I like Encarncion more than Fields for ‘08. Let’s assume Crede is traded to the Giants, which seems to be a deal that will happen. So Fields is starting and hitting some bombs with an average that will hurt you. Okay, now Andy LaRoche.

Andy LaRoche — Coincidentally, LaRoche places just about even with Fields on the preseason Rotowire charts. In a little more than a half season, Rotowire predicts LaRoche will be 66/12/51/1/.269 with a .385 OBP. In house, Rudy Gamble predicts a season no better than Brandon Inge. Personally, I really love LaRoche. He’s done all he can do in the minors, Nomar’s on his way out and his OBP is excellent. I see his numbers closer to 60/22/75/5/.310. My numbers are optimistic for ‘08, but this is a keeper league and he’s a top ten 3rd basemen as early as two years from now. Whereas, Fields makes me balk and I’m not sure he’ll ever be anything but a poor man’s Troy Glaus. I say go with LaRoche; he’s a maneater.

Yours,
Grey