Fantasy Baseball Advice

Chris Carpenter went five innings giving up no runs, allowing 4 baserunners, adding in 6 Ks, driving in 6 runs and five golden… rings.  12 runs for the Cards, but everyone was a ticker tease, except for Carpenter who pitchslapped Kip Wells.  LaRussa’s mind must be swimming with ideas….Do I hit him 8th?  7th?  Do I platoon him with Ankiel in the OF and have Ankiel come in for intentional walks?  Do I go with a Singapore Sling or an Old Fashioned?  Why is Dave Duncan looking at me?  Is my fly open?  How come no one read my book, Tonyball?  If I’m facing East, my hair should be facing West!  Why is it going South?!  If homeless people have no homes, why do they lug around so much junk?  Homeless people shouldn’t be pack rats!… Wow, there’s a lot swimming in Tony’s mind.  Interesting to peek into the mind of a genius, ain’t it?  Surprised he didn’t mention this is the last roundup of the year.  Ho-hum, so sad.  There will still be a new post every week day through the fall and winter, so check your separation anxiety at the door.  I’m still here.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Scott Baker – 5 IP, 0 ER.  His FIP last year was 3.79.  This year it was near 4.  So he was .20 off of last year.  He throws around 7 Ks per 9 innings.  So he’s good for about 155 Ks.  His Post-All-Star Break ERA was 3.39.  Guess what I’m saying is I’m going to predict next year he’ll pitch around a 3.75 ERA, good WHIP and solid Ks and he’ll be someone to look at as a third fantasy starter with number two upside and number four downside.  And in three months, I’ll quote that.

Orlando Cabrera – 2-for-5, 3 RBIs.  Behind the scenes of Razzball, I’m busy doing the top 20 recaps that will be coming your way over the next few weeks.  So O-Cab made it pretty high on the top 20 list for SSs.  I’m like, “Cool, he had a good 2nd half.”  He hit 4 homers and stole 6 bases while batting .296.  Okay, so he had a good two months?  Nope.  The shortstops are so shallow that a good five weeks is all it took.  Anyway, I’m jumping the gun, those recaps will be coming next week.

Delmon Young – 3-for-4 yesterday.  He’s batting .309 with one homer in September.  This is considered a good month for him.  Would I pickup Young off waivers next year?  Sure.  I wouldn’t draft him.  I’m not going to write someone off who’s only 24, but I’m at the point where I want to see something from Young before I take the gamble on him in 2010.  I mean, Ryan Raburn and Garrett Anderson are above Delmon Young on ESPN’s Player Rater.  Young’s the new blech.

Aaron Cook – 8 IP, 1 ER, 2 Ks.  It’s Rocktober.

Tim Lincecum – 7 IP, 2 ER.  I’m giving him the Cy Young.  He threw more innings than Carpenter, way more Ks and he’s dazzling.  I know, it’s tough to judge dazzling, but if you’ve ever watched Lincecum pitch you know what I mean.  It’s kinda like a choice between the crazy hot girl that would cheat on you and the sweet girl that would make a nice mother.  I’m taking the crazy hot girl.  For what it’s worth, I think the voters go with Carpenter.  What’s a shame in all of this is Wainwright’s getting totally ignored.  Maybe I just have a special kinship to Wainwright because I own him on a few teams and I pushed many people to draft him this year.

Mark Reynolds – 1-for-4, up to 215 Ks.  This last month (4 homers, 2 steals, .187) is why I’m going to probably take a pass on Reynolds if people are grabbing him in the top 50.  I saw value in him when people were drafting him around 200.  I see very little value for next year.  What do you want, I’m frugal.  It’s a recession after all.

Dan Haren – 6 IP, 5 ER, 7 Ks.  Ends the season with a 3.14 ERA and a 4.44 ERA in the 2nd half.  The good news is his next start is scheduled for the 1st half.

Derrek Lee – Scratched for personal reasons.  Maybe he has crabs.

John Lackey – 2 IP, 2 ER and 40 pitches.  This is about what you can expect from starters who are headed to the playoffs. I wouldn’t expect more than 5 innings from any of them.  This is a shout out to you Hamels owners.

Kevin Millwood – 9 IP, 2 ER, 10 Ks.  And this is what to expect from pitchers facing teams headed to the playoffs.

Chris Davis – 3-for-5, and hit his 21st homer of the year.  I can’t wait to see what Bill James predicts for Chris Davis for 2010.  No sarcasm there, really interested.

Cliff Lee – 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 6 Ks.  The Adverb finishes with a 3.39 ERA for Philly.

Kendry Morales – Hit his 34th homer yesterday.   The best case scenario would be the Angels are eliminated quickly from the playoffs.  Worst case scenario is, in late-October, Joe Buck saying something like, “America’s getting a firsthand look at what Kendry Morales has been doing all year.”  Then Tim McCarver says, “Good thing there weren’t more men on base when Mt. Everest erupted cause then there would be more runs.”

Carlos Zambrano in his own special way welcomed the Cubs new arrival, Jake Fox, with a shizzfit of epic proportions.  Zambrano was ejected for bumping an ump,  I especially enjoyed when the ump ejected him and he then ejected the ump.  I’m out of order? No, YOU’RE out of order!  Somewhere Michael Barrett flinched.  Jake Fox can do it all. And, like Tyra Banks would say, he can do it fiercely.  His Triple-A numbers are 40/17/50/.423 in 40 games with a .503 OBP.  Pretty sick… And that’s sick as in healthy, not sick as in Conor Jackson, Carlos Quentin or Votto.  But will Fox get time to do any of it, you ask.  Let’s see, Soriano, Hoffpauir, Fuku, FU (Bradley), Derrek Lee and Reed Johnson in four spots.  Fox’s only shot for regular playing time is at 3B and there he’d be a butcher.  At 1B/OF, maybe he gets 3 starts a week unless D-Lee gets hurt.  Though you can call D-Lee “DL” at this point, because he’s been about as reliable as a parachute made of bloomers.  As with other rookies, if Fox gets the chance, he could prove successful, so you want to be the one that owns him.  If he fails, then you drop him and take a bat to the Gatorade cooler.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Manny Parra – 6 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 12 baserunners and 5 walks with 6 Ks.  Unfortunately, this is what Parra do.  Until he can get his walks in order, he’s not worth the psoriasis-inducing head scratching.

J.J. Hardy – 3-for-5.  Hey, look who decided to make an appearance.  He’ll hit .250 and get 20+ homers.  If that’s what you need, that’s what he does.

Matt Capps – Said to be returning soon.  Be nice to get one save for all the effort I put in to pick up Grabow in every league.  Throw Grey a bone here, would ya?

Mat Gamel – 0-for-3.  Sticking with the Mat theme, but dropping one T like a bad geisha.  Gamel’s 3rd base eligibility made him especially enticing to me as a cornerman.  But he’s now making me long for Mark Teahen.

Luke Scott – Returned from the DL and hit a HR.  He’ll steal time from Wigginton, which is ironic because they’re basically the same player.  It would be like Mark Reynolds losing time to Chris Davis.  Tomato-tomahto, Orioles.  Find a blahtoon that makes sense to me then we’ll talk.

Nolan Reimold – Game winning homer yesterday.  See, Gamel, that’s how you turn lemons into Country Time.

Brett Myers – Left the game with his hip to be flared.  Again, he really shouldn’t even be on your team.  To avoid future flare-ups, he promises to wear the proper gear when disagreeing with his wife.

Jay Bruce – 2 HRs.  Now has 14 homers and only 29 RBIs.  Sure would be nice if the Reds put some runners on for him.  Maybe Dizzy Votto and his maritime compatriots can get aboard.

B.J. Ryan – For those holding out hope he’s taking over for Downs any moment, he’s given up 4 runs in the last 2 innings.  The Blue Jays are paying him a lot of money so they feel compelled to play him.  You shouldn’t.

Rick Porcello – 6 IP, 2 ER.  His lack of Ks leaves me wanting more, but he’s obviously been decent.  And his last name sounds like a delicious pasta sauce!

Josh Anderson – 4-for-5 while batting lead-off and stealing his 10th base.  SAGNOF!

Oliver Perez – Jerry Manuel said, Perez will need to be in the minors for at least another start because of “knee problems.” Jerry Manuel needs a bar of soap for some “lying problems.”

Adam Dunn – Hit another HR.  Since I traded him for Jose Reyes, he’s hit about five dozen home runs.  Kill me now.  Thank you.

Derek Holland – 5 IP, 5 ER.  Was a terrible matchup, and he gets the Yankees again next time out.

Chien-Ming Wang – Well, lookie-lookie.  2 IP, 2 Ks and zero baserunners.   Now let’s see you do it when you don’t have a seven run lead.

Elvis Andrus – I feel like I haven’t mentioned this enough, but where’s the effin’ steals, doode?  6 steals so far is not enough.  Let’s go, Elvis, boogie.

Kevin Slowey – I don’t own him in any league, but I gladly would.  I like Slowey a lot.  But because I don’t own him, I had no idea of something… He’s got 7 Wins?!  When did this happen?  Some of my teams don’t have 7 Wins.  Why am I fielding questions about whether to start this guy or not (when I invariably say start him)?  He’s 7-1 with a near-4 ERA.   Yeah, I’d start him.

Jered Weaver – Here’s another guy I feel like I keep answering questions about.  He has a 2.36 ERA.  For criminy sakes, start him.

Adrian Gonzalez – Hit his 18th homer yesterday.  Could this be the year we see a 40 homer guy call Petco home? (<–Sounds like something Tim Kurkjian would say while his voice squeaked.)

Bronson Arroyo – Now leads the NL with seven wins.  After the game he played on his guitar his new tune, “I May Suck, But My Wins Say It Ain’t True.”  Actually, pretty catchy.

Randy Johnson – Goes for win number 300 next week against the Nationals.  After he wins that game, I imagine he’ll say something like, “I could’ve won 500 games if they were all this easy.”

Jesse Chavez – 1/3 IP, 2 ER.  Somebody got burned yesterday chasing Saves.  A’la Nelson Muntz, ha ha!

Joe Nelson – 2 IP, 4 ER.  See 1/8 of an inch above.

Ben Zobrist – 2-for-3, and a steal.  Even if you just own him while Reyes gets better, it’s something, no?

Ben Francisco – 3-for-5 with a homer.  He’s 8-for-9 with 5 homers against Andy Sonnanstine.  Maybe he can get glasses made that superimpose Sonnanstine’s jersey on every pitcher.

Russell Branyan – Hit his 11th homer yesterday.  In the offseason of 2010, you’ll be looking at first basemen and you’ll think you should draft Branyan because he had 30 homers in 2009.  No, you shouldn’t.  But you can own him this year.

Adam Kennedy – 0-for-8 in the last two days.  He was hot for about a week, then he remembered who he was.  So my question is, who told my Reyes fill-in that he’s just Adam Kennedy?  I had a good thing going, man!

Emilio Bonifacio – 0-for-5, Just doing a friendly check-in on our favorite April 7th pickup.

Dan Uggla – HR yesterday and 5 homers in the last 10 games.  Not hitting for much average, but you didn’t expect him to do that anyway.

David Ortiz – Hit sixth again.  You know what’s been under reported in all of this?  Who’s now hitting third… J.D. Drew.  Zoinks!

Khalil Greene – It’s been a bad year for the Silent H’s as Khalil heads to the DL with anxiety disorder.  If there’s a bright side to this sad, sad story, maybe the anxiety will cause his ugly-ass hair to fall out.

Cornerstone, nay, cornerboulder, Prince Fielder is off to another yawnstipating start.  Last year he hit 8 homers through the month of May.  Boca Burgers were blamed last year, but maybe he just can’t swing a bat in cold weather because all he can think about is getting back to his hotel room and putting on his Snuggie.  He’ll only be 25 in May and is still completely capable of 40 HRs on the year.  If you can somehow wrestle Fielder away from an impatient owner, go for it (try a roofie!).  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy and sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Jason Frasor – Newest victim of Scott Downs’ Syndrome?  Maybe.  Or maybe… Downs Goes… Frasor!  Downs Goes… Frasor!

Aaron Hill – He’s 27 years old — yo, that shizz is magical, Copperfield! — he has power for a 2nd baseman and he’s not a drain on average.  Best case scenario is 20/5/.290 — That’s pretty good for a 2nd baseman when you consider Utley has the conch shell at 30/12/.310.

Nelson Cruz – Damn, Fonzie, you thought I’d say he was a sell after his big time start, huh?  Nah, noob.  I wrote a whole fantasy baseball sleeper post on this guy two months ago.  Recognize!

Adam Lind – Everyone and Grey’s mother seems to like this guy.  Okay, I do too!  Just keep expectations in check.  If you can get Krispie or Ludwick for Lind, I’d go for it.

Josh Anderson – With Thames on the DL, Anderson’s going to have some time to steal bases.  Your league has to be fairly deep for his name to matter, i.e., I picked him up in my 16 team mixed league… Then dropped him for Hawkins.  Well, nevermind that.

Tommy Hanson – Looks like he’s going to get the call soon.  Don’t drop anyone that is currently helping you, but if you’re choosing between middle reliever schmohawk door number one or Hanson, I’d go for Hanson.

Phil Hughes – Is it Phil or Phillip? He’s still very young with tremendous potential.  He’s not just on your radar because he’s a Yankee. With Wang wrong, Hughes could be up any moment now.

Derek Holland – Could be an impact pitcher right now.  He’s contending with Millwood, McCarthy, Padilla, Harrison and Scott Feldman. (Yes, that last name sounds like Skippy from Family Ties’s real name.)  In 12 team leagues or deeper, I’d pay to find out how long until Holland’s inserted into the rotation.

Josh Johnson – Going with the just-abandoned Josh theme, if Johnson avoids injury, he can be this good all year.

Mike Lowell – No, I’m not saying he’s going to keep up a pace of 150 RBIs, but you can’t sell him and get value so you may as well keep him and have a decent cheap 3rd baseman.

Cameron Maybin – He’s been pretty bad so far, but go watch this.  Did you see how close the leftfielder was playing?  That’s cuz the leftfielder had no idea the scouting report on Maybin and he said to himself this scrawny guy isn’t hitting the ball over my head.  Maybin!  (Okay, I’m completely bonkers pushing Maybin as a Buy at this point, but if you’re in a deep league and someone thinks your Melky is going to breakout, I’d get Maybin from them.)

SELL

Geovany Soto – I don’t think you should sell him for a pair of Meat Puppet reunion tour tickets, but while last year is still fresh in people’s minds, you might look to unload Soto.  Not only is he struggling, but he might be struggling because of shoulder problems.  That spells trouble.

Jason Bartlett – Besides having a name that sounds like a jobber in the WWE, he’s having himself a nice little start for the year.  .373 with 5 steals.  Well, la di da.  He’s going to hit .280 and steal 20 bases.  If you can get anything for him, go for it.  Otherwise, just ride out his hot streak for now, but keep your mind open to other MIs.

Jarrod Washburn – Wanna know what it’ll feel like if you continue to hold him?  Punch yourself in the stomach.

Emilio Bonifacio – 2 walks in 66 ABs.  He has speed, guys.  There’s no doubt he can steal.  At some point the goose is going to cook his average real unpheasant.

Chris Volstad – He’s running an ERA out there under 3.00 and it should be above 4.00.  He will probably be usable this year, so you don’t need to drop him, but you should use caution with him or trade him for a different piece.

Kyle Lohse – Drop the H.

Frenchy’s back, Jordan Schafer’s going to hit 161 home runs (accounting for one rainout, of course) and McCann’s going to win the MVP.  Oh, and Lowe’s winning the Cy Young.  Unanimous.  Spring has sprung and baseball’s back.  It’s a good time to be alive.  Aren’t you glad you didn’t eat any peanuts in the last three months?  They’re poisonous, ya’ll.  (It’s a wonder Jimmy Carter’s still going strong.  He is a superhero.)  Right now, I feel like putting some tilapia on the grill, an Olde English in an oversized cozy and kicking back for the next six months while the sounds of baseball dance in my head.  Oh, and win all my fantasy baseball leagues; that would be nice too.  The number one thing you don’t want to do in the next few weeks is overrate anything you see.  You’re not winning your league in the first few weeks, but you can sure as heckfire lose them.  As inviting as Jordan Schafer seems right now, don’t drop Milton Bradley for him.  Even if Milton does the devil’s work.  Jordan Schafer’s an intriguing name in deep leagues.  Just don’t jump out the window until you see how real the fire is.  On the other hand, don’t ignore what goes on these first few weeks.  This is when The ’08 Nadys (<–great band name) emerge.  Anyway, here’s what I saw this weekend for fantasy baseball:

Joey Devine – Aching Joey Devine is out for 60 days.  Punt!  Not worth holding a “potential” closer who may not be back for a while.

Gary Sheffield – Omar Minaya must’ve heard Sheff was raised in a Latin district of Tampa.  Not worth looking at in anything but the deepest of leagues.

Ichiro Suzuki – Bleeding ulcer, out until April 15th.  Endy Chavez will be batting leadoff on opening day.  Good to see the Mariners have a Plan B.  See Razzpoll on the bottom right for possible reasons behind Ichiro’s ulcer.

Derek Lowe – 8 innings, 0 runs.  Had a 2.88 ERA last April and has started off this one on a good note.  Next start, Washington.  Yum.

Josh Anderson -  Will get the nod for the Tigers in the opening today.  Has little power, but speed to burn — SAGNOF.

Brandon Morrow – Will close from the onset of the year.  If you think you’re being cute with Aardsma or Mark Lowe or Batista, you’re not.

Elijah Dukes – 4th outfielder to start the season.  Was on the Fantasy Baseball Buy/Sell on Friday as a Sell.  I wonder if Dukes is angry.

David Freese – Just when you think you’ve got LaRussa figured out, he plays Brian Barden at third in the Cards first game.  It’s only against lefties… supposedly.

Jeff Francoeur – HR yesterday.  Could this be the start of something?  

Kelly Shoppach – Getting time behind the plate in the first game with Garko sitting.  Encouraging sign, except for Garko owners.

Brian Wilson – Boo-boo healed. Will get saves to open the season.

Matt Lindstrom – Ready to go for opening day.  Aren’t we all?

B.J. Ryan – No velocity, no cry.  He’s the closer to start the season.

Mark Reynolds/Justin Upton – Sitting tomorrow against the “tough” righty, Aaron Cook.  Let’s hope for a speedy collision between Chad Tracy and Eric Byrnes.

Brett Myers – This time on the other side of a beating.  Was on our risky pitcher post.  Am I worried?  Not really, but I didn’t go near him in any draft either.

Mike Gonzalez – Our first Kazaam! of the season.  It’s good to be back.

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2009 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2009 Braves Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of Braves Journal.

1) Jason Heyward & Tommy Hanson, what can we expect of them in 2009? Any big league action? If not, when?

No on Heyward, who hasn’t played above a-ball yet. Hanson is a possibility, though the Braves shouldn’t need him to start the season. If I had my way, every pitcher would get at least two-thirds of a season at AAA before being called up, and better yet a full season. The sooner he’s called up, the sooner things have gone wrong.

2)  You ever see The Bucket List?  It’s one of the worst films ever.  It’s not funny, or dramatic.  And Morgan Freeman’s teeth are a distracting mess.  The Bucket List reminded me of Francoeur’s 2008.  Please tell me those doubles of 2007 will finally turn to home runs in 2009.

I wish I could.  Just from observation, Francoeur’s bat has slowed down dramatically over the last two seasons.  A lot of the time last year, he would take a seemingly mighty swing and hit a 280 foot fly ball to left field.  Moreover, he has to start swinging when the ball is thrown, so he’s totally guessing on if it’s a ball or a strike. Basically, his bat is dead, or at least not at all well.

3)  You know who I’ve heard good things about for 2009? Blanco.  Do I need new sources? Is he even the starter for 2009?  Who can we expect in center?

No starter has been set yet, but Blanco has been playing well in winter ball.  Of course, he played well in winter ball before last year.  He has two problems — he completely lacks power, and he strikes out a lot.  He will take a walk, but unless he can add a lot of batting average or a lot of power, he’s trouble as a regular.  Josh Anderson is probably a better defensive player and has a little bit of power (not much), but doesn’t walk.  I think one of the two will start the year in center, but Jordan Schafer will end it there.  Or the Braves could sign the bloated corpse of Andruw Jones and see if they can reanimate him a little.  They missed him on defense last year, but not as much as the Dodgers missed him on offense.

4)  Give me the rotation and which new addition has you the most excited?

Derek Lowe, Javier Vasquez, Jair Jurrjens, Kenshin Kawakami, and probably Jorge Campillo.  Vasquez looks like the best starter to me, though Lowe will start opening day, health willing.  Vazquez is a good pitcher who since he flamed out in the Bronx has been pitching in hitters’ parks, mostly in front of bad defenses.  If the Braves’ outfield defense returns to its normal standards, he can thrive.

5)  13-year-old kids have zits longer than they have mono, yet Casey Kotchman had mono for, like, 6 months.  So in the Razzball Glossary, we call a player who is out for longer than expected as, “Pulling a Kotchman.”  We toyed with Glass Chipper for the injury-prone Chipper Jones, you got anything better?

Not really.  Something along the lines of “Chipped,” maybe?   My personal most-used neologism is a “Prado,” or “to Prado.”  This is when a player makes an egregious defensive misplay (like dropping the relay on the double play) but isn’t charged with an error.  It happens to Martin Prado a lot, both the dropped DPs (“You can’t assume the DP”) and some plays that are so bad that the scorer kind of has to call them hits.  I also used “Grybo” for inherited runs once upon a time, because Kevin Gryboski would come in, allow two runs to score to bloat someone else’s ERA, and see his drop when he finally got out of the inning.