Fantasy Baseball Advice

We’ve gone over the top 20 catchers, top 20 1st basemen, top 20 2nd basemen and top 20 3rd basemen for 2008. Now we finish up the infield with the top 20 Shortstops for 2008. Something I noticed as I went over the top 20 shortstops, it’s extremely shallow. Let’s look at number 7, Michael Young. Is Young the weakest #7 on any list? Well, the #7 catcher is Pierzynski. That’s close, but I’ll give the edge to Young. The #7 1st baseman is Ryan Howard. Um, okay. The #7 2nd baseman is Jose Lopez. Lopez was better. The #7 3rd baseman was Miguel Cabrera. You want Miggy. The #7 Outfielder will be Ichiro. You’d want Ichiro. So is it fair to say the  shortstop position is the shallowest after catchers? Yeah, that’s what I’m saying. Dur. One thing that makes all of this arguable is you need more outfielders than shortstops. Anyway, here’s the top 20 Shortstops for 2008 in fantasy baseball and how they compared to where we originally ranked them:

1. Jose Reyes - I ranked Reyes number two overall in my preseason top ten because I love Reyes.  (He ended up number two overall, as well) He stole a few less bases this year, but he made up with it by hitting a few more home runs. His runs were off, but, as previously discussed in other top 20 lists, offense was down all over. Preseason Rank #1, Preseason Predictions:  130/14/70/.295/70, Final Numbers: 113/16/68/.297/56

2. Hanley Ramirez - Okay, here’s someone I really tried to temper expectations in the preseason by ranking him down at number six for overall top ten and ranking him number two on the shortstop list. These ranks are actually pretty close. The larger problem, I thought his power would come down and his steals would go up. But, in all fairness, my stat prediction was off.  His power was fine, but steals were down. Preseason Rank #2, Preseason Predictions:  110/17/85/.295/45, Final Numbers: 125/33/67/.301/35

3. Jimmy Rollins - I tried to move people away from drafting Rollins last year because he was coming off an over-hyped MVP season. This turned out to be the right move. I thought his power was a fluke, but not this dramatically. Preseason Rank #3, Preseason Predictions:  130/22/70/35/.290, Final Numbers:  76/11/59/47/.277

4. Derek Jeter - Lots of you drafted him because you wanted your girlfriends or wives to have a rooting interest for your fantasy baseball team. Mrs. Razzball reader, “Okay, we can have sex, but I want to call you Jeter.” Mr. Razzball reader, “Deal!” Preseason Rank #5, Preseason Predictions:  110/15/70/.315/15, Final Numbers:  88/11/69/.300/11

5. Jhonny Peralta - Here’s a guy I pushed in the preseason. (Not literally. That’s assault.) His power was down in the 2nd half of the season for the 2nd season in a row. This is something to watch. Preseason Rank #10, Preseason Predictions:  85/32/105/.270/3, Final Numbers:  104/23/89/.276/3

6. Alexei Ramirez - Already covered him in top 20 2nd basemen for 2008. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 65/21/77/.290/13

7. Michael Young - He played through a fractured finger to try and get to 200 hits, but still fell short. I’m convinced he would’ve played through the eye of a tropical cyclones for his 200th hit. Preseason Rank #9, Preseason Predictions:  95/12/95/.310/10, Final Numbers:  102/12/82/.284/10

8. Stephen Drew - Finally starting to come out of that long-injured shadow of his big bro. Yo, big bro, could you hand me the remote? Oh, shoot! Mom, J.D. just pulled his hammy! Preseason Rank #17, Preseason Predictions:  65/20/75/.270/15, Final Numbers:  91/21/67/.291/3

9. Ryan Theriot - Already covered him in top 20 2nd basemen for 2008. Preseason Rank #14, Preseason Predictions:  105/3/50/.290/45, Final Numbers:  85/1/38/.307/22

10. Orlando Cabrera - Luckily Renteria is ten spots away. I wouldn’t want a fight breaking out in the top twenty list. Preseason Rank #15, Preseason Predictions:  100/9/65/.280/20, Final Numbers:  93/8/57/.281/19

11. Cristian Guzman - The only preseason ‘pert prediction (<–alliteration, boyz!) Guzman even sniffed was, “Guzman will suck.” And that’s me quoting some made up prediction! Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 77/9/55/.316/6

12. J.J. Hardy - All the right metrics were moving in the right direction this year for Hardy. A very promising sign moving forward. Oh, wait, right now we’re looking back. Um… Hardy was almost exactly the player I thought he was going to be. Preseason Rank #13, Preseason Predictions:  85/20/80/.260, Final Numbers:  78/24/74/.283/2

13. Mike Aviles - Already covered him in top 20 2nd basemen for 2008. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  68/10/51/.325/8

14. Miguel Tejada - In the preseason, I hoped Tejada’s machismo from being called out for ‘roids would kick in and lead him to a great season. Turned out the lack of ‘roids manscaped his machismo. Preseason Rank #6, Preseason Predictions:  90/25/100/.290/3, Final Numbers:  92/13/66/.283/7

15. Carlos Guillen - I disliked this schmohawk coming into the season and he even underperformed my expectations. Yo, Guillen, go get your shinebox! Preseason Rank #7, Preseason Predictions:  95/15/75/.300/8, Final Numbers:  68/10/54/.286/9

16. Jerry Hairston Jr. - The fact he made the list says more about the state of the shortstop position than I could write so blah blah blah… Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  47/6/36/.326/15

17. Clint Barmes - Already covered him in top 20 2nd basemen for 2008. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  47/11/44/.290/13

18. Yunel Escobar - Already covered him in top 20 2nd basemen for 2008. Preseason Rank #18, Preseason Predictions:  80/10/55/.285/15, Final Numbers:  71/10/60/.288/2

19. Jason Bartlett - Jason Bartlett was ranked 19th and he came in 19th. For all of you in nineteen team leagues that didn’t listen to me. I told you so! Preseason Rank #19, Preseason Predictions:  70/5/45/.270/25, Final Numbers: 48/1/37/.286/20

20. Edgar Renteria - Because Renteria came in last at number 20, there’s a group of Colombian bandits Renteria hired that are GPS-tracking me. My only chance for survival is the group of Colombian bandits Orlando Cabrera hired to protect me. This is worst than the 80s Cola Wars. Preseason Rank #11, Preseason Predictions:  95/10/75/.295/15, Final Numbers: 69/10/55/.270/6

With two home runs yesterday, Ryan Braun is up to 20 HRs. Not sure I mentioned this before, but I traded for The Hebrew Hammer a couple of weeks ago. (If you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em!) I traded Carl Crawford for Braun. Rudy called me all kinds of names about this one. Topped with, “I’d say you’ve sunk to a new low but trading Verlander to (so-and-so) for Street (two years ago) when (so-and-so) was 3 starts away from being maxed out was the lowest…” Honestly, I enjoy pissing off my friends at fantasy baseball, but I wasn’t sure why Rudy was mad about this one. I mean, Crawford for Braun is fair, no? Well, turns out the team I traded Crawford to didn’t need steals. Know what? I don’t care. The team’s owner has been playing with us for a long time. He’s proven himself a worthy adversary. If he wants to trade for more steals while sporting Reyes, Pierre and Bourn, it’s his prerogative. (I don’t need permission to make my fantasy baseball decisions….It’s my prerogative…) So does this mean I suddenly endorse Braun? I placed him 22 overall; I never didn’t endorse him (sorry, double negatives hurt my brain, too). I just thought Braun was going too high. Well, on that team, I needed power because Hafner was a have-not, so I went out and got Braun. Am I suddenly down on Crawford? I am starting to think the power may never come and I’m not a huge fan of speed only guys, so there’s that. The lesson that should be taken away? Every player has a place on some team. Except Ryan Zimmerman. Anyway, here’s what I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Chase Headley - Watched him bat three times yesterday. Saw nothing that exciting. Seems like he likes to take a pitch even if it means striking out. Reminded me of Jeremy Hermida in this respect. This was one game; this is by no means a ‘pert evaluation.

Manny Parra - 7 shutout innings, 5/4 K/BB. Confidence level looks like it’s climbing. (I don’t know what that means. I heard Bill Schroeder say it and Bill Schroeder is a knowledgeable color man.) Know what helps a confidence level? Pitching against the Blue Jays.

Jose Reyes -Left with what Jose Mota (not Molina) deemed a minor injury. Word from a different (more reliable) source is he might have strained a hamstring. Ugh… *sticking head in oven*

Brad Penny - Hit the DL yesterday. Here’s what Alyssa Milano’s MLB blog update said today, “I told him to stop eating all of those fried foods and late nite meals at Mel’s Diner. When I was preparing for the roll (sic) of Charlotte Wells in Embrace of the Vampire, I ate only soba noodles for 2 months straight! Do u think I wanted to eat so much soba noodles? Well, actually…. Yeah! I did! (Wouldn’t u?) But even if I thought soba noodles tasted gross, I’d still ate (sic) them if I thought they’d help me stay in shape. BTW, I wasn’t the one who gave you herpes! L8 and <3″

Chad Billingsley - I want to draft Billingsley right now for 2009, 2010 and 2011 with an option for 2012. In the same blog entry, Alyssa Milano said this about Billingsley, “Blame Penny for the herpes. Sorry! L8 and <3 * 2″

Johnny Cueto - Not sure why his Ks are so down. Might have something to do with scouting reports, but I think it’s more to do with him falling behind and going for contact. There’s also a strong chance that Dusty Baker is somehow responsible. Dusty, “Cueto, I will throw you in back-to-back games for the ‘mainder of the season if you try to strike people out. I’m not joking. Call up Mark Prior, he will tell you.”

Brandon Webb - Going through what the people in the biz call, “a dead arm period.” If this period is anything like my girlfriend’s, it’s best to act like he’s fine and NOT bloated.

Justin Duchscherer - Of course, Dook-sheer pitched well. Apparently, that’s what Dook-Sheer do. Needed only 94 pitches to get through 8 innings.

Jeff Clement - The Mariners called him up, so he got in the game, right? Nope. Ladies and gentlemen, your 2008 Seattle Mariners!

Brandon Morrow - Making the best of the opportunity, converted a save with a perfect ninth. Putz hadn’t pitched a perfect inning in June.

Ian Snell - Snell got O-Cab to ground out to open the game. The rest didn’t look so good.

Carlos Quentin - Batting .170 in June. Where’s April/May Carlos? We want him back.

Livan Hernandez - Movie trailer guy, “In a world where Livan Hernandez looks like a good replacement for Johan Santana… He’ll baffle you with his eephus! He’ll take his time with each pitch! He’ll avoid the foul line when walking off the field! George Lopez is Livan Hernandez!”

Brandon Lyon - Kazaam’d up the joint for 4 runs in 2/3 of an inning.

Today, I noticed my diploma from the College of Fantasy Baseball at Charleston was a bit dusty and hanging crooked. So, I removed it from the wall, gave it a spit shine, polished the wood frame and fixed the wire so it would hang straight. Before I returned it to its rightful place next to my framed TV Guide cover of Miss Piggy and Kermit, I took a hard look at that diploma. I thought back on of all my classes with Matthew Berry, who insistently hit on all of the undergrads, male or female. I reminisced about hanging in the CFB quad with Rudy as we hacky-sacked and discussed a classmate’s trade of Alfonso Soriano for Dustin Hermanson. I remember being young and free and unable to get laid. Now many years later, and still unable to get laid, I miss those days. I miss the carefree attitude. The excitement I felt when a player would get hot and I would think he can hit .800 for the year. Or the frustration when a first round pick went 1-for-5. “Why can’t they go 4-for-5 every day,” I would yell at Prof. Berry. Alas, the highs and lows are gone. But, thankfully, in its place is patience. So now I know Robinson Cano refuses to hit in the first half of the season. This season is no different. Last year, post All-Star Break he went 53/13/57/.343. Pre-All-Star break, in almost 50 more at-bats, he went 40/6/40/.274 and three of those home runs came in July. In ‘06, more of the same shizz. This would make him a prime Buy Low guy. Hmm… Maybe those fourteen years weren’t wasted getting my CFB diploma. Anyway, here’s what I saw yesterday:

Troy Percival - As mentioned in the comments yesterday, Percy hurt himself and Wheeler came in to finish out the game. If Wheeler’s gone, go for Reyes if you have room.

Melky Cabrera - Of course he goes 2-for-4 on my bench. I love your name, Melky, I hate what you do to me.

Joba Chamberlain - He’s going to make his first major league start next Tuesday. This is subject to verification because I heard it from the Orioles announcers, who also manage to find positives about Mora, Millar and Ramon/Luis Hernandez, so they’re not that reliable. Though I will say they are a lot better than the YES announcers. Seriously, when I was a kid we had Rizzuto calling a black guy White and talking about huckleberries. This is not nostalgia talking. Scooter got into the Hall of Fame because of that nonsense (not officially, but still). Where have all of the good announcers gone? YES, I’m talking to you, Michael Kay.

Andy Pettitte - Rudy swears by this guy in deep leagues. I think Rudy’s caca-cuckoo. You make the call!

Adam Wainwright - You know what Wednesday means, right? Top Chef and The Real World: Hollywood! It also means a bunch of my pitchers went today, but I guess that’s more of a coincidence than anything. Wainwright does no wrong! It’s kind of a pun. Now groan!

Jeremy Guthrie - Another Grey pitcher!  I like him more than most and less than his Mom. Go figure!

Zach Greinke - Rudy gave me this schmohawk for Melky. Rudy has since dropped Melky. Wow, who’s winning this trade? Rudy’s been Greinke’d! (Yes, it’s a verb now.)

Jermaine Dye - Hit a home run yesterday. Last month, I picked him off waivers in my ‘pert league. I thought it was a bit crazy at the time that he was dropped, but since then Granderson’s been traded for Johan, and Rios was dropped by a team that held onto David DeJesus, so you just never know.

Chase Utley - You want regrets? I have a few. One is not having Utley in any league. I think I only could’ve had him in one league because of where I drafted. Alas… Nothing.

Jose Reyes - He’s at 7/16 and .279. Weren’t people saying he’s having a bad year? I love Reyes. (BTW, wouldn’t it be great if someone drafted Jose A. Reyes with their first pick? “What do you mean he’s only elgibile at catcher? He’s 0-for-his last two seasons? No, there’s got to be some kind of mistake. Wait, I’ll take a Molina!” “Which one?” “Um…. Alfred?”)

Cody Ross - 2 home runs. I wonder if his last name used to be Rosenweig.

Jo-Jo Reyes - Another guy I’m fond of, but I don’t have him any leagues. Yet.

Jason Giambi - Here’s my theory: they tested Giambi for ‘roids in April.

Joe Saunders - 5 ER in 5 IP. There’s a correction to ease your trigger finger about picking him up.

Jake Peavy - Had a promising sideline throwing session and might be back as early as this weekend. Figure he’ll be out at least 10 more days but, nonetheless, this is best case news for Peavy owners. This might be the last time you can get Peavy at a discount.

Pitching - We’d rave more about Bedard, Halladay, Harden, and Zambrano if it weren’t for the fact that Lowe, Wakefield, and Suppan also pitched well. You know it’s an odd day when San Francisco scores more than both teams combined in the majority of games.

Travis Hafner - He’s shown nothing so far and is playing with a bum shoulder (2 cortisone shots and counting). Evidently sore shoulders are harder to play with than high-grade tears of the elbow. When you start your career as a 27-year old DH, the clock’s ticking and it’s already a quarter to 12. Like a comet with a really big head, Pronk appeared out of nowhere, shone brightly, and seems to be disappearing just as fast.

Rafael Soriano - Picture John Smoltz is Nic Cage. Now picture Soriano is a bird. Okay, now picture Manny Acosta is a brown jacket. Finally, Will Ohman is a grey shirt. Okay, here’s the Braves closing picture.

J.R. Towles - 109 AB hitting .147. No SB. Makes you long for the salad days of Brad Ausmus.

Bowden Fluffer (noun) - A young, nubile outfielder that gets one all excited about their 5 tools but never fulfills the promise. See Justin Upton (May=.203, 1 HR, 34 Ks), Adam Jones, Cameron Maybin, Felix Pie, et. al.

I’ve been recruited to participate in a weekly fantasy baseball roundtable with several other fantasy baseball bloggers. I feel so knightly.

Rob Reed of BaseballGeeks.com has posted this week’s transcript on his site.

This week’s question (which was kinda from last week) is: Between Mark Teixeira, David Ortiz, C.C. Sabathia, Miguel Cabrera, Jose Reyes and other underperforming fantasy superstars, who is liable to continue to stink throughout the course of the season and why?

I veered away from the obvious answer (CC) and went with Jose Reyes. You can see my rationale on the link. I guarantee by the end of the year that Santana, Peavy, and Webb provide more value than Reyes. Unworthy of his top 5 draft status in my opinion.

Enjoy.

Felix Hernandez looked dominant yesterday. Most impressive thing, eight strikeouts to one walk. Least impressive thing, it was against the A’s. Most reason for concern, he threw 115 pitches. He’s already complained of arm fatigue, why is he pitching the ninth inning? *cough* No bullpen. *cough* (Side note, I dropped Mark Lowe in one league for Brocail. More on Brocail later.) When Felix Hernandez got called up, people were saying he could be the best thing since naked Natalie Portman pictures, and he looked it in ‘05 at the age of 19. But then ‘06 happened and a few people fell off the bandwagon, then ‘07 happened and the bandwagon got derailed. Now it’s ‘08, (no shizz, right?) and Felix Hernandez doesn’t feel like the next big thing anymore. Well, guess what? He’s only 22. Here’s what I said in January when I placed him in my top twenty pitchers overall, “…He could shoot to the top five pitchers by as early as next year. This may be the last time you’ll be able to get him at a bargain for a decade.” And that’s me quoting me! Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Jose Reyes - He loves to go on tears. Hold on, it’ll be a fun ride.

Josh Hamilton - It’s boring always being right, but I have him on a few teams too. I’m just hoping he doesn’t succumb to the allure of crack in May. Just Say No! (Or get injured.)

Rafael Furcal - 4 for 4 with a home run. He’s been looking like a great bounce back candidate since February. If someone in your league doesn’t know it, they do now.

A.J. Burnett - Yes, that was him in the 14th inning. Good idea to throw the injury-prone guy out there.

Jason Botts - I’d love to see him get some starts. Might be a good platoon mate when the Rangers are playing lefties at home. Cust kayin’.

Hank Blalock - (Lots of  Rangers news, right?) He’s day-to-day with a sore back. That means a 15-day DL stint that turns to 60-day then he gets mono from Casey Kotchman.

Jason Isringhausen - Struggled to get the save. He’d have to be injured to lose the job. Trade for him.

Jose Valverde - Later today you’ll be getting a closer report, let’s just say Brocail was picked up by me in three leagues last night. Valverde was NOT good before last year.

Carlos Gomez - If you have Miguel Cabrera at third and Helton at first and really need steals, here you are.

Carl Crawford - I believe he gets to 25 home runs this year.

Josh Fogg - What a Razztastic that start was. I jumped down 6 points in the standings. (Farkin’ Mark Redman messed up my perfect day.) Unfortunately, with the shizz Fogg threw up there, Homer Bailey (who’s been outstanding in the minors) might be getting the call soon. I know, that’s not unfortunate for a lot of you.

C.C. Sabathia - Okay, this is purely conjecture, and I welcome others thoughts on this, but ‘member how he threw something like 657 innings last year including the playoffs? I know his velocity has been fine, could there be some residual tiredness thing going on? Not sure, but feel free to CC me your thoughts.