Fantasy Baseball Advice

Lance without an ACL isn’t NE good.  With a torn meniscus, Lance Berkman is only out for six to eight weeks.  “Hello, I’m Keith Morrison of Dateline.  Today’s story is about an aging vet.  A vet that the media began reporting as finished.  Done.  But where this vet saw the end, his knee saw just a setback.  Also, on tonight’s Dateline:  Can you get cancer from playing with your cat?”  Berkman and I haven’t always seen eye to eye.  Last year, he berated me in the comments for not believing in him, then disappeared this year when he wasn’t going well.  I hold no ill feelings towards him.  That competitive edge that drove him to compete also drove him to comment on our site.  Last year, A-Rod missed 6 weeks with a torn meniscus.  I’d put him and Berkman around the same level of gimpiness.  So Lance B. coming back around mid- to late-July.  With Berkman out, Matt Adams should have a nice long leash.  I already went over my Matt Adams fantasy.  I wrote it while cringing at contestants on The Next Food Network Star.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Neftali Feliz – To the DL with right elbow inflammation and could be out for 6 weeks or longer.  This is the Rangers simply watching his innings so he’s okay in the playoffs.  Wouldn’t shock me to see him not starting again until August, unless the Rangers start sliding in the division, which seems doubtful without the Angels, A’s and M’s all combining into one super-mediocre team, the Mangelics, then combining all of their wins.

Roy Oswalt – The Rangers are suddenly interested in bringing in Oswalt.  Uh-oh, the Mangelics better bring in Cliff Lee.

Yu Darvish – 4 IP, 4 ER.  He’s only been roughed up twice this year.  Both times vs. the Mariners.  Now, I’m not saying anything funny’s going on here, but… Well, I am.  When I was in Little League, my best friend was the best pitcher in our league and, before a game where we were facing off, he came to me and said he’d groove a pitch for me to hit.  As anyone knows who has played baseball, if you know a ball is going to be right down Broadway, your confidence boosts and you hit the ball hard.  So far, Ichiro hasn’t hit anything well this year, except against Yu.  They’re guilty!  Hmm… Now that I think about it, this will be a good anecdote to get me out of jury duty.

Sean Marshall – Got the one out save yesterday because Aroldis was used a lot recently, and doing 93 in a 55 rather than 99 in a 60 and 6 inches.

Mike Leake – 8 IP, 1 ER, 3 baserunners, 6 Ks while pitchslapping Mike Minor.  Totally solid game from Mike Leake, which sounds like a name Bart would ask for at Moe’s.  His K-rate hasn’t been good and, in most mixed leagues, I’d wait to see more before adding him.

Drew Stubbs – 2 hits, 2 runs, 2 RBIs and 2 homers.  That’s two by four, which is a Hacksaw Jim Duggan Special!

Zack Cozart – 2-for-4 with a homer.  Buh-bye, Freddy Galvis and Dozier or whatever schmohawks I was rocking at shortstop.  I’m back in on Cozart.

Ian Desmond – 2-for-4, 2 RBIs and his 7th homer while batting .280.  He’s been so much better than Ryan Zimmerman, and now my blood pressure is higher than Billy Joel’s cholesterol.

Henry Rodriguez – 1/3 IP, 1 ER and was pulled for the Sean Burnett save.  Johnson said he’s had it up to “here” with Rodriguez.  The “here” being about 4 feet lower than Rodriguez throws most of his pitches.  Johnson indicated he could just go to a committee, which never makes anything better from a fantasy standpoint.  I’m gonna hold BB-Rod in my leagues, because Johnson has gone back to him before.  In leagues where you’re desperate for saves, Burnett and Clippard could see opportunities.

Vernon Wells – Has a torn thumb ligament.  Will be out for at least 2 months.  The Angels are in talks to acquire Adam Lind.  I’m kidding.  The Angels have labeled their Blue Jays iPhone contact as “Telemarketer” so they never answer the phone when they call.

Jerome Williams – 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 10 baserunners, 2 Ks.  You, “Coming off a bunch of solid starts, then Jerome gives up ten baserunners in 6 1/3 innings against the A’s in O(that’s a big stadium).co.  What gives, Grey?”  I streamed him, that’s what.

Miguel Montero – Left yesterday’s game with a groin strain, which is more painful but less annoying than a strained groan.

Chris Davis – 2-for-4 with his 6th homer.  He’s hitting .350 over the last week and, like Mr. Chiquita Banana, he usually hits them in bunches.

Jason Marquis – Twins designated him for assignment.  Man, the Twins are pink-slipping more people than Victoria’s Secret.

Ryan Braun – Homered then left yesterday’s game (which still might be going) with some groin tightness.  I used to get that whenever my 10th grade English teacher called on me.  Very embarrassing.

Irving Falu – 1-for-3, hitting .415 since his call-up.  Irving Falu, who sounds like the only Jewish Hawaiian in the world — “Hey, guys let’s have a luau, but instead of burying a pig, let’s bury a brisket,” could fill in while Getz gets (stutterer!) better from his rib injury.

Felipe Paulino – 6 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 8 baserunners, 8 Ks.  Yes, you should pick him up.  Yes, now.  This will be here when you return.  If you want the gist of the rest of the post before you go, here, “And that’s me quoting me!  C) There is no C.  Schmohawk, yawnstipating, hot schmotato… SAGNOF!”  Now go!

Jeff Francoeur – 4-for-4 on Sunday, a homer on Monday, on your team on Tuesday.

Orlando Hudson – White Sox announced that Hudson would be their 3rd baseman.  I’d rather Orlando who ran the strip joint on The Wire be my team’s 3rd baseman.  The White Sox were seeking a vacation from 3rd base mediocrity and settled on the lamest choice possible – Orlando.

Jeremy Hefner – Will be taking over Miguel Batista’s spot in the rotation while he’s on the DL.  Hefner sounds like a Playboy heir, but his career AA/AAA stats (6-7 K/9, 2-3 BB/9) look like he’s more of a hustler.

Brian Roberts – Said he was close to starting a rehab assignment.  On a side note, his picture looks like he saw the Ghost Of His Former Self.

Jose Reyes – 4 for his last 10 with 3 steals.  Hey, the fifteen minute handshake that ends with Ozzie lighting a fire under his ass is working.

Austin Kearns – 4-for-4, 2 RBIs, and a steal as he started in left field.  With Gaby causing the Marlins Triple-A affiliate to build a women’s locker room and Logan playing 1st base, Kearns might see time in the outfield.  Really only an NL-Only play for now.

Giancarlo Stanton – 1-for-4 as he crushed Jamie Moyer with a grand salami.  Hey, Giancarlo, I like cougars too!

Matt Garza – 3 IP, 7 ER. Ouch… Wait, what?  Oh, God, I’m bleeding from all sides!  Please, make it stop!

Bud Norris – 7 IP, 0 ER, 8 baserunners, 8 Ks as he lowered his ERA to 3.14.  I’ve been telling you to pick him up since April.  We’re good, right?  All right, cool.

Chris Johnson – 2-for-4, 3 RBIs and his 5th homer.  Nothing says desperation like picking up Chris Johnson before he gets around the bases.  Chris Johnson, welcome to the Grey Albright All-Stars, feel free to use my lineup for your bathroom.

Jed Lowrie – 3-for-4 with a slam (7) and legs (2).  I’m getting people asking me in the comments if they should drop him.  Seriously, what do you want at MI?  He’s been better than Robinson Cano!

B.J. Upton – 1-for-4 with a double that was overturned into a homer.  I once had a two bagger overturned into a homer and that also involved a B.J.

Cory Leubke – Scheduled for Tommy John surgery after taking a few weeks to get a few different doctors’ opinions.  Too bad opinions aren’t like elbow tendons.

Cody Ross – Out for two months with a fractured bone in his foot.  If you have two first names, you should have four feet.  Cust kayin’.

Clay Buchholz – 5 1/3 IP, 5 ER to raise his ERA to 7.84.  Anyone that dares own him in fantasy knows his nickname should be Butthurtz.

Will Middlebrooks – 3-for-5, 1 RBI.  Now with the Ross injury, the Red Sox are leaning towards keeping Middlebrooks in the majors.  I can’t imagine why.  Their outfield yesterday was Che-Hsuan Lin, Marlon Byrd and Daniel Nava.  One guy who wasn’t even a starter on his college team (Nava), one guy who the Cubs couldn’t wait to lose (Byrd) and one guy Red Sox fans are deluding themselves about because his name looks like Lynn and he likes rice.

Now this is a position I am bearish on to a point for 2012.  On the one hand, there aren’t many SS I really want to draft.  I like Troy Tulowitzki, Jose Reyes and Starlin Castro and that’s really it.  The thing is, after those three, I don’t feel like I have a leg up on the competition for 2012 if I draft any of them.  What’s the difference between Elvis Andrus and Dee Gordon when we look at expectations for this year?  How about comparing Asdrubal Cabrera to Erik Aybar?  My perfect team has either Castro or Tulo on it, with the high likelihood that its Starlin on my team.  I’d balance him out by going for power from my next SS, take J.J. Hardy in the 11th or 12th.  But really, your team is not going to be strong or weak based upon what your SS does this year.  If I miss out on those top 3, I’d even talk myself into waiting for the Escobars, Yunel and Alcides, while bulking up elsewhere.  ‘Waiting for the Escobars’…sounds like a movie title.

I’ll Avoid:

Hanley Ramirez – I traded him away in 2011 for Tulo in a keeper league and have no regrets.  I do think 2011 was an aberration for Hanley but the trendline is there.  His power is in decline and you add to that a position change with a hurt shoulder, I don’t know if we can expect 20/25 from him this year.  It’s his power that separates him from Jose Reyes in the rankings.  If he hits .290 and goes 15/25, is he really worth more than Reyes’ .290 with 10/40?  Unless your league scores extra points for lack of hustle, the answer is no.

Asdrubal Cabrera – It pains me to say this seeing as he’s a keeper for me this year but his 2011 was so far out of line with his career arc to date, the ADP has high expectations already baked into the cake.  15/15 with a .280 average is nice, but what’s wrong with Jimmy Rollins‘ .265 15/25 a round later?  Of course, we know I’m not drafting either guy but you get the point.  If Asdrubal repeats his 2011 and doesn’t tire down the stretch like he did last year – he hadn’t played a full season since 2009 – then you’re getting him at his market value.  I’d just rather not find out if he can match his asking price.

I’ll Go For:

Zack Cozart - Bill James projects him for 13/16 and a .250-ish average in 130 games and he’s going after the 20th round.  Tell me why I’m targeting middle-tier SS again that go before the 10th round?  I’m still trying to figure that one out.  I’ll take him as my secondary SS (sorry for that, lispers) and be fine with it.

Ruben Tejada - Now I almost went with Alcides Escobar because he should steal you 25 to 30 bags and hit .275.  He seemed to really figure it out after June of last year, stealing 21 of his 26 bags.  Hrm, two sentences in and I’ve already talked more about the guy I almost went with and maybe I should’ve.  However, I want to highlight what Ruben Tejada did in 376 plate appearances last year: .284 average with a .360 OBP.  ‘Yeah and what else did he do?’ you ask.  Well, truth be told absolutely nothing.  However, he’ll be dual eligible in yahoo leagues and is going virtually undrafted even in larger leagues with an ADP of 402.  Plus, he’s only going to be 22 this year.  Call this one more a shot in the dark over hard evidence but I like hitters who have a good batting eye and feel like the rest can sort itself out.  Maybe he turns into Marco Scutaro.  Maybe he turns into Yunel Escobar.  Or maybe he turns into Kate Upton.  Or maybe…mmmm…Kate Upton…

Situation to Monitor: New York Yankees

Let’s take a look at the age of that infield, shall we?  Robinson Cano is 29 so he’s fine.  Mark Teixiera is 32 in April so still, we’re in the range of youngish.  Derek Jeter is 37…kids, he didn’t just decide to go with the bald look cuz it was cool.  Then you’ve got Alex Rodriguez at 36, he of the 124.5 games played average since 2008.  Even if these two manage to hold up over the course of the year, their backup Eduardo Nunez is going to be resting those gams quite a lot to make sure their playoff run doesn’t have to start with a visit to the retirement home for their lineup.  There’s a good chance with the age of the Yankees we see either A-Rod or Jeter come close to full time DH duties or combine there enough to get Eduardo a large total of ABs this year.  Considering he stole 22 bases in just over 300 ABs last year, you could hamstring strain yourself into 30 SBs from someone who might go largely undrafted.  To quote Kiefer Sutherland in his Bank of America ads: nice, remarkably nice.

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2012 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2012 Marlins Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of Fish Stripes?

1) Not sure how familiar with Jose Reyes’s fifteen minutes extended handshakes, but they’re legendary.  I hear he’s come up with one handshake that will involve him lighting a fire under Hanley’s ass so he plays third base.  Will this handshake be necessary?

I don’t think it will be, though I’d be more than happy to see Ramirez more fired up than usual. I think the threat of losing out on millions of dollars in a few seasons will be enough to make Ramirez want to be the best third baseman he can be, but it does help to have someone who can be friendly and relate to him playing a few feet away from him. Reyes has a reputation for being an awesome clubhouse character, and that should help keep their relationship smooth and Ramirez hungry to compete and prove that he is still an elite player.

2) Jeffrey Loria’s rich aunt died and left him money to enhance the team (total conjecture…or is it?!) and now he wants to get rid of his rich uncle to fix this about the new park:  A) Fences too far out making it a pitchers’ park.  B) Fences too low and in for hitters.  C) Less seats so it still doesn’t look so empty.  Also, in general, how will their new park play?

One of our writers pointed out that the Marlins’ new stadium had walls close to that of Petco Park’s depth. In that respect at least, the Fish will be boasting a pitcher’s park similar to the one it had before the move. While Petco has additional factors that make it the worst place to hit in baseball, I doubt that the Marlins’ new stadium will be nice to hitters. The left field side will be deeper, while the right field remains of similar distance. The corner walls will be moved in a tad, but this is compensating for a deeper left and right middle field.

Also, there actually will be fewer seats to make everything feel more “cozy;” The Marlins will be boasting the smallest full-capacity stadium in the majors next year at just around 37,000 in full seating. Considering that they have not reached that capacity since 2003, I would not blame them.

3) Giancarlo Stanton will hit 40 homers, steal 15 bags and I will change my middle name to Giancarlo-Stanton.  What’s the chances those things happen?

Stanton has a very good shot at hitting 40 home runs; a lot of projections have him reaching around 37 this season, so it would not be a stretch to put 40 in his 30th or 40th percentile projection. While it is less likely that he just develops more raw power than he already has as he ages (only Jim Thome has hit more home runs per fly ball since 2010 among players with at least 1000 PA), it is possible that he learns to lift balls more and give himself more chances at knocking them out of the park.

As for the other two projections, they are far less likely. Stanton does have the athleticism to steal bags, but it is difficult to imagine the Fish wanting him moving in front of good hitters with the risk that he will run them out of an inning with his limited stealing experience. And given Stanton’s full name, isn’t it much more likely that you change your middle name to Giancarlo? If he’s not going to use it, someone should.

4) What will 2012 look like for Logan Morrison?  (BTW, His Twitter account spontaneously combusts while tweeting with Ozzie’s Twitter account is one answer, but I”m looking for on the field predictions.)

Logan Morrison should appear as someone in between his no-power OBP machine 2010 and his stronger but lower batting average 2011. He isn’t going to bat .330 or .260 on balls in play, so expecting something in between and leading to a .270 batting average and almost 20 home runs is not a bad start. A .270/.360/.470 slash line and a decently productive fantasy season seem to be in line for the Twitter addict Oh, and his Twitter account should repeat as the best in the game for a second straight season.

5)  What will be the biggest change now that the Marlins have moved to Miami?
A) Each game will begin with Hanley, Josh Johnson and Giancarlo Stanton entering amidst smoke and lights, proclaiming they are going to win 8 World Series.
B) Marlin catchers will argue balls/strikes by pulling a David Caruso (half statement, remove glasses, finish statement)
C) Marlin pitchers will wear Don Johnsonesque sports jackets when on base.
D) In the pre-game warm-up vs. the Cubs, Starlin Castro will be assassinated.

I’m desperately wishing for B), but I’m going to choose C). They already are wearing oddly colored jerseys, so they might as well complete the ensemble for the pitchers when running the bases. Every time there’s a hit, Miami Vice’s theme song is already going to go off anyway.

The top 20 shortstops for 2012 fantasy baseball are a shallow bowl of dung and even the catchers are ranked ahead of them for depth.  All the 2012 fantasy baseball rankings can be found under that thing that says 2012 fantasy baseball rankings.  (Don’t worry, one of my New Year’s Resolutions is to link to things a little more seamlessly).  Shortstops usually get the short end of the stick when I’m drafting.  If I don’t get a top guy from the first two rounds, I’ll probably just take a flyer on some late round player.  Honestly, I don’t even really want to mess with Tulo, Reyes and Ramirez.  So, to amend what I just said, I usually just take a late flyer on a shortstop.  I honestly can’t remember the last time I drafted a 1st or 2nd round shortstop, and I play in about ten leagues per year.  In leagues that play a middle infielder, then you might need two of these schmohawks.  Hopefully, you can grab two decent 2nd basemen and only need one of these guys.  As with the other top 20 rankings, I point out where I think tiers start and stop and my projections.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 shortstops for 2012 fantasy baseball:

1. Troy Tulowitzki – His projections are found at the top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

2. Jose Reyes – His projections are found at the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

3. Hanley Ramirez – His projections are found at the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

4. Elvis Andrus -  This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Asdrubal.  I call this tier, “Only four shortstops in and it’s your last chance for a decent one.  Yay.”  Maybe it’s Arlington, maybe it’s the lineup around him, but I still think he can hit 7 to 10 homers and be the new Reyes.  He’s still only 23 years old and he’s shown durability and speed.  All he needs is to find a little power stroke and we’re looking at a guy that is gonna shoot up a few rounds next year.  2012 Projections:  105/7/60/.285/40

5. Starlin Castro – Castro’s gonna be the Jeter of the Cubs.  Players on the Cubs are gonna come and go and Castro’s gonna be there, hitting .300, teen homers and steal 20-ish bases.  For a long time.  (Note #1:  I wrote the preceding then decided to use my Google machine to see if anyone’s made that comparison before.  Sure enough, yup.  Dozens of people.  There’s even a crappy Bleacher Report slideshow of Jeter and Castro that has five pictures total that are flip-flopped five times to drive up pageviews.)  (Note #2:  If you skipped the first note, let’s act like I invented the Castro/Jeter comparison.)  (Note #3:  There’s no note number three.)  I’m sure I’m the first person to think of the Jeter vs. Castro comparison.  Prescient isn’t just a word I can’t spell without a spellchecker!  (Note #4:  Thanks for ignoring the first note.)  2012 Projections:  100/12/70/.310/20

6. Jimmy Rollins – You know when you show up at a party early and no one else is there and you’re stuck talking to people you don’t know?  That’s like drafting a player the year before he breaks out.  “So, how do you know the host of the party?  You met him at AA?  Cool.  You know, I actually have another party I have to get to.”  It’s equally bad showing up sober to a party late and everyone is drunk and acting a fool.  That’s like drafting an older player who finally becomes useless.  “So, you put flash frames of Masonic imagery in your home movies?  Interesting… I think I’m gonna head home.” And before you know it you’re cleaning up vomit off your shoes because of the random guy who couldn’t resist the Jager.  No one wants to be the first or last person at the party.  I get it.  You’re running the risk of being last on Rollins and having to clean up his puke, but I think a car load of girls is about to show up and the party has one more rally left in it.  2012 Projections:  80/14/55/.270/24

7. Asdrubal Cabrera – Let’s put what I have to say aside for one second.  Bill James says Asdrubal should go 16/15/.273.  He gives Rollins 16/25/.262, Castro 8/21/.312 and Andrus 4/39/.281.  Those are relatively the same with Rollins getting the edge because of steals and power.  Rollins is obviously the most likely to get those numbers or get injured.  Castro doesn’t have huge power, but he’s better in steals and average.  Andrus is way better in steals and slightly better in average.  So why is Asdrubal last?  He never hit more than 6 homers in any other professional season.  He just pulled a 25 homer, “Hey, look I’m Ben Zobrist!” season out of his back pocket.  All of those other shortstops have done all of those numbers before.  Andrus easily has speed, Rollins has done those numbers for multiple seasons and Castro is five years Asdrubal’s junior and he just went 10/22 and hits .300 like it’s his job (which it is), i.e., I’m not drafting Asdrubal with his current price tag.  2012 Projections:  80/14/70/.270/15

8. Derek Jeter – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Bonifacio.  I call this tier, “Where’s all the freakin’ shortstops?”  What a mess this position is.  That’s it; only 7 shortstops?  For serious?  That’s ridiculous.  Fold the position and move everyone on the field thirty feet to their right.  Or count pitchers’ hitting for fantasy and forget about shortstops.  Last three years, Jeter’s homers have been 18, 10 and 6.  As we know from 3rd grade math problems, next year Jeter’s gonna hit a negative two homers.  Hey, Garrett Atkins, get out of Jeter’s earth skin?!  2012 Projections:  90/10/60/.275/15

9. Alexei Ramirez – I dislike this guy a shizzload.  His end of the year stats of 17-ish homers and 10-ish steals look all right, but to get there it’s, like, 3 homers and 1 and a half steals per month.  Who even steals half bags?  Fat and/or lazy guys, and Alexei isn’t fat the last time I checked.  Oh, and when you’re waiting for 3 homers and 1+ steal a month, it’s utterly yawnstipating.  2012 Projections:  75/17/80/.270/10

10. Erick Aybar – The best thing Aybar has going for him is Scioscia loves him like a fat kid loves cake.  When the best thing for you is when a Sciosciapath likes you, you’re in trouble.  He gave Jeff Mathis 2000 ABs!  2012 Projections:  80/6/50/.280/24

11. J.J. Hardy – You trusting J.J. Hardy as your shortstop?  Not rhetorical!  Seriously, are you?  He wasn’t even drafted last year and he’s ranked 11th, and it’s not like he was this prospect that suddenly emerged and that’s why he wasn’t drafted.  He’s 29 years old and has played 7 years in the majors.  You think he’s going to repeat last year or do you think he’s gonna disappoint like his other years?  Oh, God, this position is terrible.  2012 Projections:  60/19/75/.255

12. Emilio Bonifacio – A utility man who just had a career year isn’t my idea of a great draft pick.  Maybe I’m old fashioned!  Maybe when I curse I say drats!  Maybe I call my breeches knickerbockers!  Maybe I’m afraid of planes because I think they’re giant birds!  I don’t buy Bonifacio at all on the average.  That was bolstered by luck and a hitting streak where things were falling in for him…. Hmm, that’s sorta the same as luck.  I also don’t buy the power, even if it was only five homers last year.  The speed is real though, so if you can get him at a bargain and you need speed, go for it.  Remember, you’re drafting a guy that you will almost definitely want to drop two weeks into the season.  2012 Projections:  70/2/40/.260/30

13. Dee Gordon – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Alcides.  I call this tier, “Honestly, I don’t even think these guys are that great, but compared to what’s left after this, this is your last chance for exciting.”  If you don’t have a shortstop by the end of this tier, then you are punting shortstop and will end up with a waiver wire carousel of Cliff Pennington, Rafael Furcal and Jason Bartlett.  Otherwise known as Clafson Barcal, who only sounds like a character from The Wire.  Gordon is Juan Pierre at shortstop.  He’s so skinny if you put a sesame seed on his head he looks like a thumb tack.  I don’t think Gordon could hit a homer if they move the fences to standard Celebrity Softball regulation.  But he does have speed to burn, so there’s that.  2012 Projections:  80/0/30/.265/45

14. Ian Desmond – I feel like Desmond and Espinosa both get a bad rap.  Speaking of bad rap, imagine Nicki Minaj guest rapping on a Pitbull song.  Man, they are both terrible.  You’re not rhyming Kodak with Kodak, you are just repeating the same word!  Desmond was actually a bit lucky with his average last year and he strikes out a lot.  It’s not a great sign, but all the players this low have some drawbacks.  2012 Projections:  70/10/65/.250/22

15. Zack Cozart – I already went over my Zack Cozart fantasy.  I wrote it while defriending anyone that ruined Boardwalk Empire’s finale.  2012 Projections:  55/14/70/.245/20

16. Alcides Escobar – This is it.  No more upside at shortstop after this.  Unless you’re related to Everth Cabrera and you promised to draft him so he stops threatening to walk into traffic.  Alcides has the promise of 40 steal speed in those luscious gams of his.  Whether he ever wants to make good on that promise is up to him.  BTW, luscious is a totally normal adjective to describe another man’s legs.  Alcides looks like a poor man’s Aybar.  Or a Sawdust-On-The-Floor-bar.  2012 Projections:  75/5/50/.250/30

17. Jhonny Peralta – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until the end of the post.  I call this tier, “If you draft from here, you will rotate out your shortstop at least 5 times this year.”   I guess Peralta could be J.J. Hardy this year and bash 30 homers.  More than likely he’ll hit 17 homers and a .250 average.   I don’t buy the .299 average last year at all.  I think the God of Extra H’s came to him in April and bestowed on him his one wish — a pony that craps gold.  Then he got lucky and hit .299.  (You didn’t think he’d wish for a .299 average, did you?  I mean, wouldn’t he just wish for a .300 average?  C’mon, use your brain!)  2012 Projections:  60/17/75/.250

18. Yunel Escobar – I never know what to make of Yunel.  One year he hits 11 homers and another year he hits 14 and another year he hits 10 homers.  Will he hit 11 this year?  Maybe 12?  Or even 13?  So much to think about!  /sarcasm  2012 Projections:  70/12/45/.280/3

19. Jason Bartlett – I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bartlett traded to a team that uses him as a backup.  Luckily, that wouldn’t change his fantasy value.  Because to change values, you need value — snap!  2012 Projections:  50/3/35/.255/20

20. Rafael Furcal -  Member when Furcal was one of the top shortstops in the game?  Yeah, I don’t either.  I have a bad memory.  Who are we talking about anyway?  Ryan Klesko?  I love his sideburns!  2012 Projections:  60/7/35/.245/12

After the top 20 shortstops for 2012 fantasy baseball, there’s a lot of names but these standout:

Tyler Pastornicky – Since the Braves like to throw prospects to the fire (to nice success), I expect they’re going to give Pastornicky, who sounds like the clergyman that Carmela made out with, every chance to play.  In the minors, he’s shown decent power for a shortstop and 20-ish speed.  I wouldn’t expect much of an average.  He might be a very cheap Ian Desmond.  That sounded better in my head than it probably did in yours.  To read further on Tyler Pastornicky 2012 fantasy, click that link-a-ma-boob.  2012 Projections:  55/7/65/.250/17

Jed Lowrie – The fact that the top 20 2nd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball and this post both have Astros in the upside flyer section at the end of the post speaks volumes.  I share very little enthusiasm for Lowrie that others have.  Best case scenario, he hits 15 homers and steals 3 bases.  Over the course of the season, you’re looking at a guy that hits about 2 homers per month.  That gets boring by April 7th.  2012 Projections:  60/12/65/.260/3

Stephen Drew – I usually like to highlight guys at the bottom of this list to look at late, but we’re talking about shortstops here.  If you couldn’t tell from the dozen or so times I said there’s no good shortstops, here’s another indication.  For the first time in a while, Stephen Drew will not disappoint because no one is expecting anything from him.  The Royal We is not even sure if he’ll be able to play when the season rolls around.  Think about all the time we would’ve saved from drafting the two Drew boys if Mother Drew never met Father Drew.  Could someone travel back in time and make sure they never meet?  2012 Projections:  60/12/55/.270/5

Baseball’s hot stove season has been largely dominated by the new-look Marlins. The last time a Miami team made such headlines in free agency, it was the controversial Miami Heat “Dream Team.” Although they did not have their own hour long ESPN special and subsequent public hatred like Lebron and his gang, the new-look Marlins have come to play. Opening a new name, a new stadium and a new brand, the Miami Marlins have been spending money indiscriminately, almost bafflingly. In the blink of an eye, the Marlins organization became populated with a fiery new manager, multiple perennial all-stars, future hall of famers, gold furniture and miniature giraffes. Seemingly not satisfied, the Marlins are rumored to be in pursuit of many of the big names still on the market. In baseball home-grown talent generally trumps big market acquisitions, but if there was a model for free agency winning championships, this certainly is not a bad start. Let’s take a minute and assess the fantasy fallout of this mind-blowing series of moves.

The first domino to fall was the Heath Bell signing, but in retrospect that is little more than a drop in the pond. The big prize was Jose Reyes, whose signing represented a bit of a shocker to the baseball world. Reyes will struggle to play full seasons (he has not exceeded 140 games played in 4 seasons), but his presence at the top of the lineup will be a major upgrade as long as he is on the field. From a fantasy perspective he gets an upgrade as he joins a lineup with more firepower than the Mets could muster. Additionally Ozzie Guillen is likely to be aggressive in his use of his leadoff hitter, meaning a return to 50 SBs is within the realm of possibility. Still, all the press surrounding this signing will likely drive up the price on draft day, and I’m not sure I’d be willing to pay it. I think it will ultimately be a better play to reap the benefits that this upgraded lineup will confer on the rest of the lineup. This becomes all the more poignant if the Marlins make another big offensive signing. Even though they missed the Pujols boat they still reportedly want to bolster the offense. Curiously, they are reportedly out on the Prince Fielder sweepstakes because apparently no matter how many tofu tacos he eats he cannot rally the Hispanic market (funny, I thought homeruns were the universal language). One possible alternative is the Cuban shortstop Cespedes. The easy transition from Cuba to Miami makes it a fit for not only the player but also for the Marlins, who help that aforementioned Hispanic market.

Lost in all of these moves is the fact that the Marlins actually had a decent squad last year. After Trader Jack McKeon took over the team they played reasonably well, and certainly have talented pieces to work around. The primary beneficiary of this managerial change was Hanley Ramirez, who rebounded from a slow start to post respectable numbers until being shut down with an injury. Hanley will likely remain on the team even with the acquisition of Jose Reyes (despite rumors that he may be shopped), and hopefully Ozzie Guillen can motivate the superstar in the same way that Jack did.

Hanley’s situation is very interesting from a fantasy perspective because Reyes’s signing has forced Hanley to make a switch to 3rd base. This means that Hanley will bring his 5 tool talents to a new gig- dual eligibility at two of fantasy’s scarcer positions. Unlike Alex Rodriguez who made the same position shift, Hanley is not a true slugger. His power and speed combo will be truly unique at 3rd this year, but his power stroke will need to return in a big way for him to be considered a legitimate option at third base. Fortunately, his dual eligibility will allow owners who take him early to have great flexibility later on in filling these tough positions.

Another bystander from last year’s team who stands to benefit is young superstar Mike Stanton. Stanton’s power was historic in 2011, and his ability to overcome the adjustments pitchers made against him proved he was no fluke. If fantasy owners had one complaint about his 2011 season, it was likely in the RBI department. He was shuffled up and down the lineup all year, and seemingly hit nothing but solo shots. Regardless of whether the Marlins’ signings prove to be good or bad, the short term lineup looks to get a major boost, and Stanton’s RBI numbers should improve dramatically. There were numerous other Marlins position players who were mixed league relevant who can expect a similar boost as well (I’m looking at you, Logan Morrison and Gaby Sanchez). Buy buy buy.

In stark contrast to the new-look offense, the Marlins’ rotation looked to be more of the same with Ricky Nolasco and Josh Johnson as the headliners (provided the latter’s injury rehab goes smoothly). After that a slovenly band of journeymen and veterans consisting of Anibal Sanchez, Chris Volstad and newly-acquired Wade Leblanc rounded things out. The Marlins, correctly realizing that this rotation was a recipe for disaster, made a game-changing signing — Mark Buehrle. Buehrle has been consistently solid for a long while in the tougher American League, and should benefit from a move to the senior circuit. He should be a formidable piece of the Marlins rotation and a coveted mid-tier fantasy starter on draft day.

Another area that the Marlins did manage to upgrade was their bullpen via their somewhat surprising acquisition of Heath Bell. Bell’s peripherals are not nearly what they once were, but he should be a clear upgrade over the “Artist formerly known as Leo Nunez” Juan Oviedo. Oviedo himself becomes a dicey fantasy play unless he is non-tendered and latches on elsewhere as a closer. However it seems fairly likely that the Marlins will keep him around for depth purposes. I’d shop him in keeper leagues before the dust settles.

Whether the Marlins have built a championship contender is still a matter of debate. They have certainly generated a buzz in the baseball world that will hopefully translate to attendance at their new ballpark. Regardless of the outcome, there will be many fantasy options coming out of this lineup this year, but don’t draft on hype alone. The value is there only if you know where to look.