Fantasy Baseball Advice

Lance Berkman is scheduled to have arthroscopic surgery on his knee and will be out two to four weeks.  I expect he’ll miss at least a week of the season.  Maybe two.  And even though it’s at worst two weeks of the season, I dropped his projections (to see them, go to the top 20 1st basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball), because when older players need knee surgery after bumping their knees, well, it concerns me.  Luckily for Astro fans, Ed Wade planned way ahead for an injury to Lance Berkman.  Step right up, Geoff Blum!  Wait!  This just in!  Ed Wade just traded Lance Berkman’s physician for a box of Triscuits. Wade, “If anyone can do this surgery, it’s this box of Triscuits.  They’re so woven!”  Anyway, here’s some other news in fantasy baseball:

Jose Reyes – As you probably know by now, Reyes is going to miss 2 to 8 weeks with a wonky thyroid.  He’ll likely begin the year on the 15-day DL.  Which is not the same as being on the DL for the entire year.  Hopefully.  I said this about the whole Reyes thyroid issue when it happened.  I’ve also updated my top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball, top 100 and top 300 rankings.  Right now, I have Berkman in a Cousteau-deep league and Reyes in a league with no bench.  If you need me, I’ll be on the roof of my building waiting for someone to push me.  Since this isn’t a leg issue, I wouldn’t turn down Reyes if he fell to me in the 4th round.

Carlos Beltran – Some people wondered if the Mets could keep their injury news streak alive in 2010.  So far, so good, huh?  Beltran says he should be ready to start rehab games in April, which would put him on a timetable to return to the Mets towards the end of April.  He’s not a safe pick, but I’d start considering him around the 100th overall pick.  Doubt his steals return to their previous glory, but he could be the three-hole hitter for the majority of the season and get 20+ homers.

Brandon Lyon – Faced live hitters today for the fist time.  I’m assuming those live hitters were happy.  Lyon should be ready in time for the start of the season.  I still think he’s the guy the Astros turn to to close out most games.  Lindstrom should still be owned for those vulturing and handcuffing.

Gaby Sanchez – Inside track on the 1st base job.  He’s my backup for Berkman.  Wish us well.

Brian Roberts – Taking pain meds… Aw, Sickie Roberts.  I haven’t owned Roberts in many years because I thought he was overrated, but I was starting to come around on him.  Now that he’s still dealing with a herniated disc, maybe I’ll go back to my original stance.  Hey, his herniated disc is making me boomerang! (<–Australian humor)

Who is Jose Reyes — your great auntie who huffs and puffs to the mailbox in hopes the Cake of the Month Club package arrived?  Does he have dishpan hands and varicose veins?  Maybe Reyes overdosed on Mr. Burns’s nerve tonic like Ken Griffey Jr.  Jose Reyes has a bad thyroid.  Carlos Beltran has a bad knee.  The Mets’s injury list looks like a BBW convention.  What’s next, David Wright has adult-onset diabetes?

I don’t want to feed the hysteria because in all likelihood Reyes will be back next week.  Reyes said, “We’re not talking about my leg, nothing like that, we’re talking about my health, so I have to be concerned about it.”  I actually understand the distinction he’s making between his real health and his leg health.  And I think it’s awesome.  He’s thinking like a fantasy baseball manager!  Thyroid-schmroid — if he can run the bases, let’s hear it for the boy.  I’m not moving Reyes down my draft rankings just yet, but then again I’m not drafting in the next few days.  Until we hear more from Camp Reyes, I’d need to see him drop into the 3rd round for me to bite.  Though I think this will probably end up like how everyone dropped Pujols out of the first round in 2008 because he claimed to be one elbow short of two then he went on to win an MVP.  Reyes isn’t going to win the MVP, but I do think he’ll be fine.  Just practice caution.

Some of you will be drafting your fantasy baseball teams over at ESPN and that’s cool.  I don’t mind their drafting and league setups.  Plus, they’re free.  If you don’t like your team, do like 98% of the other people at ESPN and abandon your team in May.  But when you’re drafting at ESPN, you’re confronted by their rankings.  It’s important to know what they’re saying, so you can exploit the rankings for your greater good.  I’m going off my top 100 for 2010 fantasy baseball and top 300.  So here’s some random turd nuggets from the ESPN 2010 fantasy baseball rankings:

Carl Crawford – 8 at ESPN, 19 here.  Before Miggy Cabrera, Tex, Longoria, Howard… Buh-but, Grey, isn’t 1st base deep? Yeah, and steals from an outfielder are shallow?  Oh-kay.  Because I have a photographic memory and no actual evidence to prove this, you’re gonna have to take my word for it.  Last year, Crawford was ranked somewhere in the 40s by ESPN.  Then he has a career year and he’s ranked 8th.  ESPN’s three year averages to figure out projections are done by multiplying the last year by three.

Ichiro Suzuki – 23 at ESPN, 43 here.  Probably the worst value player that is always overrated.  You need a .277 average to be competitive.  Ichiro best attribute is he can turn your average up to 11; it’s pointless.

Jose Reyes – 40 at ESPN, 18 here.  See my comment about Crawford for why they have Reyes this low.

Curtis Granderson – 55 at ESPN, 34 here.  Clara Bell wrote an interesting piece the other day about how Grandy could hit 35 homers and steal 20 bases but he’s NOT a top fifty draft option.  And, by interesting, I mean you really can’t make this shizz up.  You have to be an ESPN Hindsighter to read the whole thing, so I’ll Cliff Note it for you.  Karabell argues that Grandy is such a negative on average that he’lll cost your team dearly for those 35 homers and 20 steals.  As I’ve mentioned previously, you could have found 25 outfielders who contributed 20 steals, but only ten outfielders, who retain outfield eligibility for 2010, that had 30 homers.  Grandy fell in both categories.  Only three other outfielders did.  Also, nowhere does he mention that Granderson was about fifty points off his career BABIP and should hit closer to .275.  I don’t expect Karabell to know anything about BABIP, except Cockcroft, another ESPN Hindsighter, just wrote an article about how Granderson was unlucky with BABIP.  Maybe Karabell was too busy with a Michael Bolton from Office Space Lookalike Contest to read it.

Brandon Webb – 81 at ESPN, 175 here.  ESPN has Webb ahead of Cain, Ubaldo, Hamels, Wandy and Kershaw… As for why they ranked Webb this high, I think there’s a good chance they just totally forgot about last year.  Or maybe when they were ranking Webb, Berry farted and everyone laughed, causing them to skip over Webb’s name.

Howie Kendrick – 105 at ESPN, 200 here, about 100 picks before I have him.  Kendrick’s a good average bet that hasn’t put together one full year at the major league level.  No, thanks.

Todd Helton – 154 at ESPN, 261 here.  According to Point Shares, Helton will earn -3.38 Points.  He comes in with a -1.5 Points for homers and -1.2 for RBIs.  Nice!

Ian Stewart – 199 at ESPN, 100 here.  I’m totally waiting for them to write the Ian Stewart sleeper post, quoting their own facacta rankings.  Guys, I look like Michael Bolton, and I think Stewart’s great value ranked at 199! Actually, now that I think about it, the best thing you can do with ESPN’s rankings is send all of your leaguemates there to study them.

The top 20 shortstops for 2010 fantasy baseball are a bit deeper this year, but they’re still shallower than the top 20 2nd basemen and ranked only ahead of the catchers for depth.  All the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings can be found under that thing that said 2010 fantasy baseball rankings.  (Don’t worry, one of my New Year’s Resolutions is to link to things a little more seamlessly).  Shortstops usually get the short end of the stick when I’m drafting.  If I don’t get Hanley, I’ll probably just take a flier on some late round player.  In leagues that play a middle infielder, then you might need two of these schmohawks.  Hopefully, you can grab two decent 2nd basemen and only need one of these guys.  As with the other top 20 rankings, I point out where I think tiers start and stop and my projections.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 shortstops for 2010 fantasy baseball:

1.  Hanley Ramirez – Already covered him in our top 10 for 2010 fantasy baseball post.

2.  Troy Tulowitzki – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Rollins.  I call this tier, “Even the elite shortstops are no guarantees.”  Already covered him in our top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball post.

3. Jimmy Rollins – Already covered him in our top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball post.

4.  Jose Reyes – Already covered him in our top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball post.

5. Derek Jeter – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Zobrist.  I call this tier, “Overrated.”  I’m not going to draft Jeter in any leagues.  Some crazed Noo Yawker will get him before I can even think about it.  I do like him a bit more going into 2010 than I did in last season’s preseason after seeing how hitter-friendly The Stadium Adjacent To The House That Ruth Built is.  2010 Projections:  110/16/70/.315/20

6. Jason Bartlett – I don’t buy into Bartlett’s 2009.  In October, I said, “I didn’t believe the high average in May and I still don’t (he hit around .230 in September).  I’m pretty sure when February Grey gets around to going through guys that will disappoint in 2010, Bartlett’s name will be there.”  That was a *pinkie to mouth*  Bartlett Quotation.  Okay, so January Grey’s here to say, February Grey’s got nothing on me.  Bartlett more than doubled his homer per fly ball rate so I don’t believe the 14 homers, either.  Average outlier + power outlier + repeatable, but not blazing speed = Pass.  2010 Projections:  95/7/50/.285/27

7. Ben Zobrist – Went over Zobrist in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball post.

8. Elvis Andrus – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Asdrubal.  I call this tier, “Since there’s so few top shortstops, we’re left with upside.” Andrus is ranked ahead of Alexei and Drew simply because his value comes from speed and that doesn’t just disappear, unlike guys whose value is predicated on power.  Can Andrus jump into the upper tiers like Drew and Alexei can?  It’s possible, and they have more downside.  They’re all real close and I could see taking any of them depending on how you’re assembling your team.  Your eyes want more?  Elvis Andrus sleeper.  2010 Projections:  75/8/50/.270/37

9. Alexei Ramirez – I’m usually a peaceful person, but this guy made me want to choke someone out last year.  Preferably Alexei.  His homers should bounce back a bit from last year, but his .277 average looks pretty right on.  He’s established that he starts slow, so if you do draft him keep that in mind.  2010 Projections:  70/18/80/.280/15

10. Stephen Drew – Rising ground ball rate, falling fly ball rate… Who’s this guy trying to be, Luis Castillo?  Hit the ball in the air!  After his 2008 season, Drew had more promise than the first twenty minutes of Inglourious Basterds.  Then Drew’s 2009 was spent running a French movie theater and falling in love with a black guy.  Hopefully, Drew’s 2010 can be set in a tavern basement and get the ball rolling again.  2010 Projections:  85/22/75/.265/4

11. Asdrubal Cabrera – Went over Asdrubal in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball post.

12. Yunel Escobar – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Peralta.  I call this tier, “I’m punting this tier.”  Yunel could get to 17 homers (a long shot), but he has the speed of a man 300 pounds heavier, assuming that man isn’t Pablo Sandoval.  2010 Projections:  90/15/75/.305/3

14. Miguel Tejada – On C-SPAN, Jim Bunning is arguing in front of Congress that Tejada’s high average last year should be withdrawn from all official records because of a high BABIP.  2010 Projections: 70/15/85/.295/4

14. J.J. Hardy – I’ll give this to Hardy, I almost dropped him to the Furcal tier, indicating I would almost draft him.  Maybe in my horseshoes or hand grenade draft.  2010 Projections:  65/23/80/.260

15. Marco Scutaro – Marco…. Scutaro… Whatevero.  2010 Projections:  70/11/80/.275/7

16. Erick Aybar – I get a utility man vibe from Aybar.  If you draft him, there’s a 95% chance of you dropping him before May.  2010 Projections:  85/3/50/.290/17

17. Jhonny Peralta – If you don’t have nothing nice to say, then don’t say nothing.  2010 Projections: 75/18/85/.265

18. Rafael Furcal – This is the last tier.  This tier I call, “These are fliers I’m taking a chance on late.”  Furcal’s a bit of a wild card to even be around still by this tier.  Someone will draft him earlier, totally forgetting what happened last year Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer-style.  Others will see his last month as a sign of good things to come.  If he’s around at the end of your draft, I’d take a flier that there’s still a bit left in the tank.  He is admittedly not a very exciting flier.  Hey, they can’t all be Alcides Escobar.  2010 Projections:  90/10/55/.275/20

19.  Alcides Escobar – I compared him to a 2009 Elvis Andrus in the Alcides Escobar fantasy sleeper post.  Go look at it.  Go ahead.  The Royal We will be here.  2010 Projections:  80/5/55/.265/40

20. Ryan Theriot – Feels like a poor man’s Alcides… Or maybe it’s a conservative man’s Alcides.  2010 Projections:  85/3/50/.285/22

There’s lots of guys after the top 20 shortstops for 2010 fantasy baseball, but these two stand out:

Ian Desmond – Went over him in my Ian Desmond Fantasy sleeper, keeper, something or other post.  2010 Projections:  85/10/60/.275/20

Everth Cabrera -  Here it is.  The last guy you could conceivably take and still get an affirmative head nod from yours truly.  You want that affirmative head nod or not?  It’s up to you.  If you need 30-plus steals late in your draft, then EverCab can do the trick.  (EverCab is also available for bar mitzvahs.)  2010 Projections:  85/3/50/.260/35

Took part in another mock draft the other day.  This mock team didn’t mock up as well as my last 2010 fantasy baseball mock team.  I underestimated how low catchers would fall.  In the 12th round — a round and/or around where I usually like to start thinking of catchers in 12 team leagues — Montero was staring at me in my Beetlejuiced-sized head (that picture of me above the post is actual size) and I just couldn’t turn him down at the 154th pick overall.  But then Soto sat there for another 5 rounds.  If I would’ve known I could’ve took Soto with the 200th pick, I would’ve took a better 4th outfielder, a better 3rd baseman and a better corner infidel.  But it didn’t work out that way.  Such is life.  I still think my team is solid.  The draft was a Mixed league, 5×5, 4 outfielders, an MI, a CI and 9 pitchers, any combination.  (FYI, rankings will start again Tuesday morning.  I’m on birthday-long-weekend until tonight.)  Anyway, here’s a 2010 fantasy baseball mock team, some thoughts on certain players and where I drafted them:

Round 2 – Jose Reyes – Usually when I draft speed of Reyes’s caliber, I ignore speed for the rest of the draft. I didn’t do that this time because I wanted to illustrate an employable strategy that might need its own post. When my crush of the moment, Ian Stewart, was drafted in the 8th round, I knew I was not getting a 3rd baseman. I had my Sleeper Pick For 3rd Base That No One Wants Including Myself in my back pocket, who I knew would be around because appropriately no one wants him.  But more on him in a second.  So to make up for my lack of a 3rd baseman, I drafted too heavy on speed.  I really don’t need Andrus and Reyes and the 10-20 steals I’m getting from others.  With extra speed, I’d be able to trade for someone.  Reyes for Zimmerman?  Andrus for Chipper?  Andrus for Beckham?  Reyes for Youkilis?  If I would’ve just took, say, Mark DeRosa at 3rd base when I took Andrus then I wouldn’t have a 3rd base or a shortstop to trade.  It’s obviously not an ideal strategy.  You should try and leave the draft with a team you want, not one you want to trade.  But it’s a strategy to keep in mind if your back’s against the wall.

Round 5 – Josh Hamilton – I didn’t believe the huge value coming out of 2008 and I don’t believe he’s washed up either.  In the 5th round, that’s solid value.  Plus, the great thing about Hamilton is if he starts the season hot, his value will soar because he’s the golden child.  Or is that the golden armed child?  Either way…

Round 6/7 – Johan Santana and Adam Wainwright – I’m sorry, but when I see Johan fall into the 70s in a draft, I’m taking him. The Wainwright pick was probably unnecessary, but I felt like my first five picks — Utley, Reyes, Votto, Grandy and Hamilton — are so stacked that I could’ve afforded the double starter pick.  I could conceivably have 5 top 10 overall picks from my first 7 rounds.

Round 8 – Raul Ibanez – Raul was not the best outfielder on the board when I took him.  He was the best threat for power and RBIs on the board.  I could’ve took Double I or Alfonso, but Torii’s less of a power threat and gives value with steals, which I didn’t want, and Soriano’s too risky for my team.

Round 9 – Francisco Rodriguez – Some ‘perts refuse to draft saves ever, to the point of absurdity.  K-Rod at the 111th pick overall is value.

Round 10 – Matt Garza – The one American League starter I drafted.  He K’d a decent amount in the minors but he didn’t show that until last year.  In 2010, he’ll continue to show it.

Round 16 – Ryan Ludwick – I don’t even particularly like Ludwick.  I think he can easily end up waiver wire fodder, but I was drafting heavy on power late and he was one of the few guys left.

Round 17/20 – Jonathan Sanchez and Johnny Cueto – 2nd mock draft in a row that I’ve taken both of them.  You might just see a sleeper post about each.

Round 18 – Chase Headley – Finally, my Sleeper Pick For 3rd Base That No One Wants Including Myself.  It’s not easy to get excited about a Padres hitter.  I realize this.  I almost wrote a sleeper post on Headley, but I couldn’t summon up the enthusiasm.  Headley had a good 2nd half last year.  Optimistic projections have him at a .300 average and 25 homers.  With Kouzmanoff, um, off to Oakland, Headley will get to play 3rd base, where he looks more comfortable on the field, which could help him at bat.  Okay, I’ve said enough about him.  After all, as I mentioned in the Reyes blurb, I drafted so I could trade for an adequate 3rd baseman.