Fantasy Baseball Advice

This will be the last time I mention Logan Morrison for some time.  Hashtag that.   Not that I don’t like him, it’s just I’ve given him enough press, assuming the word ‘press’ still makes sense even though I’m dictating this post to a Montessori-taught monkey that I’ll occasionally catch looking at me like he wants to kill me and take over Razzball, which makes dictating that even more awkward.  Imagine in 300 years when they find this post in a time capsule with Snooki’s poof.  They’ll read that monkey sentence and think they’ve figured out the major problem with our society was we had monkeys taking dictation only to be disappointed when they read this sentence.  Sorry, future reader!  We’re more complicated than that!  Whoa, that was a major sidetrack.  So Morrison was sent down because he needed to “work on all aspects of being a Major Leaguer,” which basically meant he used to grab his farts and throw them at Hanley.  If someone dropped Morrison when he was demoted, I’d go ahead and re-add him.  Or have your monkey re-add him for you.  I’m kidding, future reader, our monkeys don’t manage our fantasy teams.  They only give advice which we decide whether or not to follow.  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Kyle Seager – The other day I compared him to Omar Infante.  I’ll see that comparison and raise him Martin Prado.  Personally, I don’t like guys like Infante or Prado outside of NL-Only leagues, but I also don’t like people who write personally either, so there’s that.  I’m a contradiction wrapped inside of lazy writing pitfalls.

Kevin Kouzmanoff – Picking up Kouzmanoff leaves a fantasy baseballer (<–my Mom’s term) in a spirited debate with themselves over God, free will, morality and why there aren’t any other 3rd basemen to pick up.

Jose Lopez – Hitting .333 over the last week with 2 homers.  This week’s third basemen pickups remind me of the Bottle Rockets song, “1000 Dollar Car.”  To quote, “If a $1000 car was truly worth a damn, then why would anybody ever spend ten grand?”

Danny Valencia – Hitting .333 over the last week with 2 homers.  Hmm… Just had deja vu.  Weird.

Jimmy Paredes – Leave it to the Astros to promote a guy straight from Double-A who wasn’t even playing that well.  But — and this is a J. Lo-sized but — he’s hitting right now, has speed and good position eligibility.

Eric Young Jr. – I’m unabashedly a fan, if I’m using the word unabashedly right.

Jeremonio Affirezo – That’s a portmanteau of Jeremy Affeldt, Sergio Romo, Santiago Casilla and Ramon Ramirez, i.e. the closerousel in San Fran.  Ram-Ram seemed like the first choice, but he didn’t look good on Wednesday and Casilla got the save.  But II, The Return of But, Romo returns this weekend.  But III, This But Is Gonna Be Huge, Affeldt could see saves if the ninth is mostly lefties.

Bobby Parnell – He’s getting saves for the Mets and he can win you a SpongeBob at a carnival with his 102 MPH fastball.

Steve Cishek – I just went over my Cishek fantasy.  I wrote it while eating the marshmallows out of my Lucky Charms.

Mike Minor – Has 52 Ks in 55 2/3 IP! *whispering fast*  With a 1.49 WHIP and 4.37 ERA.  *loud again*  Next he gets the Mets and the Dodgers.  Not in the same start.  Who is he, Joel Youngblood?

Stephen Strasburg – Set to return on September 6th.  Don’t Washington-area seismologists have enough to do?

Brandon Allen – After his two homer game, Bob Melvin said Allen would be the starter for the foreseeable future.  As long as his foreseeable replacement is Conor Jackson, Allen should play.  Sorry, CoJack, I don’t love you, baby.

John Mayberry Jr. – Charlie Manuel hinted that Mayberry could see everyday playing time even after Ibanez returns, saying, “Time comes when tadpoles gotta frog up.  Now where’s Utley’s pomade?  I gotta slide outta my uniform.”

Lucas Duda – Since August 14th, he has 4 homers.  Terry Collins knows when he’s got a good thing.  Like at 3rd base and shortstop when Reyes returns.  Duda’s a 20 homer guy if he plays all year.  Kinda like a poor man’s Willingham.  Or a Willingspam.

SELL

Gaby Sanchez – No Gaby Gaby!

Trevor Cahill – Has a 7.00 ERA post-All-Star break.  I’m thinking you can probably find that off waivers from someone else.  It’s a hunch, ya’ll!

Bobby Abreu – He’s over 60% owned in ESPN leagues, so he made my imaginary self-imposed cut off that I occasionally ignore.  What good is an imaginary self-imposed cut off that isn’t self-imposed?  Nada, nada, nada damn thing.

Justin Morneau – Right now, it’s kinda sad the way you keep going back to him.  The relationship is hurting both of you.  It reminds me of a line from my upcoming, breakout Middle East rap song, “Why can’t we get together and take it easy… I’ll be your Qaddafi, if you’ll be my Condoleezza.”

J.J. Hardy has been hotter than a Latin woman frying chorizo in the Sahara desert.  Why she is in the Sahara is fodder for a J.J. Abrams movie.  In 2008, Hardy hit 24 homers and .283 in his fourth big league season.  Then poof.  Nothing.  He vanished.  Or did he?  It’s the real Hardy Boy mystery and, if he did it in a small bucolic town, it could be read as voiceover by Keith Morrison on Dateline.  He’s still only 28 years old and capable of 20+ homers over the course of the season.  Over the last ten games alone, 3 home runs and hitting .395.  Next week, the moon!  And Abrams might have a thing to say about why the moon too.  If Hardy’s on waivers, I’d absolutely grab him to see if he can continue to hit and stay healthy.  J.J.’s dyn-o-mite!  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Tommy Hanson – Scratched from his Friday start with a sore shoulder.  Hanson’s value goes Mmmmplop.  Hopefully, he just needs a few days, but a shoulder problem… Well, just keep telling yourself he’s gonna be all right.

Randall Delgado – Will take Hanson’s Friday start.  Where did I just read about him?  Oh, I know!  Here, two days ago.  Stephen just dropped his Randall Delgado fantasy on you.  He wrote it while sitting outside of Diane Lane’s house.  Creepy!

Brandon Beachy – Had a solid rehab start.  Will have one more next week and then rejoin the Braves rotation.  And not too soon after Minor’s start last night.

Chipper Jones – Glass Chipper left yesterday’s game with a groin strain.  Vegas pays out a nickel for every thousand dollars bet that Jones would get injured.

Jordan Schafer – 5-for-6, 3 runs and a mention in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell.  It’s Friday, ya’ll!

Jeremy Guthrie – Left the start yesterday when his back went all spastic.  That sounds like an adjective my elementary school teachers used to describe me.

Zach Stewart – 7 IP, 2 ER, 8 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Was called up to take Kyle Drabek’s spot in the rotation.  Stewart’s numbers this year in the minor leagues leave something to be desired.  Something like a better K-rate.  He’s a passable flyer in an AL-Only league and not kosher in mixed leagues, i.e., pass-over-able.

Jon Rauch – 0 IP, 2 ER.  The Blue Jays will be holding auditions for closer at the West Covina Mall this Saturday from 10 to 2.

Adam Lind – 2-for-4 and his 14th home run.  I drink Lind’s milkshake!

Tsuyoshi Nishioka – Returned from the DL and went 1-for-4 in the three hole.  I had a friend who’s found great enjoyment in the three hole.  Personally, I don’t– Wait, what?  Oh, Nishioka.  He’ll be in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell.  I look forward to you skimming it on your mobile phone while you go to the bathroom.

Michael Cuddyer – 2-for-4 with his 10th home run.  On Wednesday, he stole three bases.  On Tuesday, he hit another home run.  Finally, he’s hitting .643 in the last week.  For those who have him at 2nd base, you did well and I’m a little jealous.  Are you happy now?

Ryan Raburn – 1-for-3 with his 6th home run.  Why’d he hit a home run?  Because I finally dropped him in one league.  Alcides Escobar, you better keep stealing bases.

Grady Sizemore – 0-for-4.  I try not to talk about the same players every day because then it gets boring for both of us.  I’ve now gone over a month since my last Sizemore mention.  On May 12th, I told you to sell him.  Since then, he has 1 home run, zero steals and is batting .203.  I don’t think selling is an option anymore.  Now you have to start thinking about cutting bait.

Jayson Werth – 2nd game in a row with a home run.  Wanna have your mind blown?  Okay:  34/10/26/.240/9; 25/10/27/.292/2.  The 1st one is marginally better because of the steals, but when you consider draft cost… Well, the first one is Werth; the second one is Laynce Nix.  Of course, Espinosa has been better than both of them at middle infield, but no one wants to own him.

Brian Gordon – 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 10 baserunners, 3 Ks. Started in place of Colon, he’s a herbathrowdite that was recently in the Phillies minor league system.  He had Bugs Bunny-type numbers this year in Triple-A — 56:7 K:BB, 0.83 WHIP in 55 1/3 IP.  Those are the kind of numbers that give hope to Brian Anderson and Tony Pena Jr. with their position reassignment.  I wouldn’t touch Gordon in mixed leagues yet, but I would look at him in AL-Only leagues.  Maybe one day ESPN can do a movie on him starring Chaz Bono.

Chris Snyder – His wife was attacked in a traffic dispute.  In a related story, Scott Cousins’ wife ran over a pedestrian.

Clay Buchholz – Left his start yesterday with lower back stiffness, which is less awkward than lower front stiffness.

Jake Peavy – Looked great in his rehab start.  Better bring him up immediately before he gets injured again.

Zack Greinke – 5 1/3 IP, 6 ER, 10 baserunners, 10 Ks.  His ERA is now up to 5.23.  BUY!  Seriously, don’t walk, run and buy him.  His K:BB is 70:9.  That’s a thing of beauty.  That’s in 53 1/3 IP.  Schnikes!  I wouldn’t be surprised if he has a 2.50 ERA the rest of the way.  Here’s Grey, here’s Grey going on a limb.  Snap or no snap?  No snap!

Cliff Lee – 9 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Superb Lee.

Matt Garza – 6 IP, 5 ER and the conshellation win.  Any time you wanna pitch as well as your peripherals, Garza, feel free!

Gio Gonzalez – 6 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 10 Ks.  Continues to be a must start at home and must take ulcer medicine because of his control issues.

Jose Lopez – 0-for-3.  Getting some starts at 3B for the Marlins as they long for the Jorge Cantu era.  They’ve even asked if he’ll change his name to Jose Cantulopez and answer to the nickname of “El Melon.”

Moneyball – I know, big fantasy news here!  Still, I’m giddy for this movie.  How could you not be?  It’s a movie that hinges on Scott Hatteberg.  A couple of thoughts on the trailer (which I’ve posted below).  Would’ve loved to been a fly on the wall for this pre-production conversation:  “We need an actor that can convincingly tell Brad Pitt he can’t pay retail prices for players?”  “Well, he’s gotta be nebbishy… Paul Giamatti?”  “Too old.  Too goy.”  “Hey, how about Jonah Hill?”  “Brilliant!”  Also, can’t wait for this scene in the movie:  “Who’s that sidearmin’ fella?”  “The name is Bradford.  Chad Bradford.”  Finally, this is the kind of movie that will have end titles about what happened after the movie ends.  Hope it reads something like this, “The A’s never did win a World Series and all of their relative success was due in large part to Eric Chavez, Miguel Tejada and Jason Giambi — three juice heads.”

I suggest you grab a 3rd baseman before leaving the top 150.  Shoot, I suggest you get one before leaving the 2nd round, but those scenarios aren’t always possible.  So what what what what is the scenario if you miss out on one?  This list of guys that can be had later in your drafts.  Look at this as a supplement to the top 20 3rd basemen of 2011 fantasy baseball.  Where applicable, click on the players name to read more about them or to see their 2011 projections.  Anyway, here’s some 3rd basemen to target for 2011 fantasy baseball:

Jose Lopez – “Hahahahahahahaha… Whoaaaaaa.  Hahahahahahahaha… Seriously, dubya tee eff?!  Are you dropping a Mr. Winky, the emoticon, on me?!”  That was what my thirteen-year-old niece texted me when I told her Jose Lopez was the first deep sleeper if you start looking for a 3rd baseman after the top 150.  If you take nothing else away from this post, know you need a 3rd baseman earlier than the 12th round in 12 team drafts.  Also, you should probably infer that if you play with a corner infidel, you better have a 1st baseman slotted in there, as well.

Jhonny Peralta – When you see The Silent H make an appearance you just know this list smacks with excitement, right?

Chris Johnson – Here’s what I said in the top 20 3rd baseman post, “Honestly, I don’t fully buy into the Chris Johnson fanwagon.  He arrived with little fanfare last summer, because he was kinda whatever.  He struck out 91 times in 94 games last year and I think Johnson’s pretty numbers are a small sample size talking.  (That’s what she said!)  But he is in his prime and has upside.  It’s worth a flier if you’re back against the wall.”  And that’s me quoting me!

David Freese – I kinda like Freese the best on this list if you take into account his ADP, but you can’t own him in anything but deep mixed and/or NL-Only daily leagues.  He’s got a cankle issue and might not play more than 5 days a week.

Danny Valencia – Sounds like a star of a telenovela, right?  Danny Valencia, no cocina mi corazon! Valencia is a nice name to look at in AL-Only leagues.  If you’re drafting him in 12 team, mixed leagues, there’s a chance he will cook your heart.

Between the two middle infield positions, I tend to draft a 2nd baseman early and punt shortstop.  This happens for a few reasons.  1) 2nd base has more talent.  That’s right, I draft the deeper position earlier.  Same reason I punt catchers and try to get a 1st baseman early.  If a position is deep, a lot of your leaguemates are going to have one of the top guys.  You don’t want to be one of the 3 or 4 teams without a top guy.  2) There’s less difference between a middle-tiered shortstop and a bottom-tiered one.  (Same could be said of catchers.  We have a theme!  Or is it a genre?  No, it’s a theme!) 3) Shortstops tend to give value with the steal.  You can find cheap steals later.  Most of the 2nd basemen on this list are going after the top 150 in your 2011 fantasy drafts.  This is a supplement to the top 20 2nd basemen of 2011 fantasy baseball. These are 2nd basemen that I’ll be setting the ol’ crosshairs on at my 2011 fantasy drafts after the top options are gone.  Click on the player’s name where applicable to read more and see their 2011 projections.  Anyway, here’s some 2nd basemen to target for 2011 fantasy baseball:

Ryan Raburn – Love him.  No, no I don’t.  Love’s not strong enough.  I lurve him, Woody Allen.  And with all of this lurve, if he doesn’t have 2nd base eligibility in your league, you say alas and wave to him with your WWII-era hat as your train leaves the station.

Aaron Hill – I imagine after Uggla’s average plummets back to .250 and Hill’s average reverts back to its norm in 2011, they will be drafted near each other in 2012.  It’s a hunch.  Sorry to burst your Uggla bubble, or Buggla if you’re into portmanteaus. BTW, my first released album was “Bursting Bugglas.”  Wasn’t that well-received.

Danny Espinosa – His ADP is 340 in mock drafts. Around the same spot as Stephen Strasburg, who is, obviously, not playing this year. Oh, wait, I know! Strasburg is being mock drafted in mock keepers. Gotcha. You people are sneaky!

Howie Kendrick – I could see the universe throwing me some kind of sick, twisted curveball where I end up drafting Kendrick and Russell Martin on the same team. See, two guys I never liked before this year and now I’m liking them. Eh, it’s not important if everyone understands what I’m saying.

Gordon Beckham – Here’s what I said in the top 20 2nd basemen post, “He started to show signs in the 2nd half (in 171 ABs, 6 home runs and a .310 average).  Some continuation of that progress and he’ll outproduce his draft spot.  There’s still 15 homer power in his mollywhoppers and 10 steal speed in his gams.”  And that’s me cutting and pasting me!

Sean Rodriguez – To save one commenter the time, I don’t know if Sean-Rod is starting.  For where he’s being drafted, it doesn’t matter.  Take a flyer.  If it doesn’t work out, you can always grab a different MI.

Eric Young Jr. – Please refer 1/8th of an inch above or what I said about Sean-Rod.

Neil Walker – He’s currently at 264 on the Mock Draft Central ADP list.  Is he really over a 100 spots behind Mike Aviles?  Wait, is Mike Aviles family all drafting Aviles in the first round to bump up his draft slot?

Tsuyoshi Nishioka – I had an interesting exchange with Rudy the other day on IM. He IM’d me, “Do a sleeper post about Tsuyoshi.” I IM’d him back, “I already highlighted him in my rankings and talked about him when the Twins signed him.” He IM’d back, “Sorry, I don’t read your posts.”

Jose Lopez – Well, ain’t that an exciting name to end the targets with!  Yeah, Jose Lopez is yawnstipating to draft.  Sure, you’re right, but guess his age.  No, lower.  Lower still.  No, he’s not twelve years old!  He’s 27.  It would shock you if a 27-year-old went to Coors and hit 25 homers, matching his career high that he achieved while playing in Safeco?  Wouldn’t shock me.  Cust kayin’.

The Padres finally put their offense on the offensive.  Only here the offensive definition is “causing anger, displeasure or resentment.”  Thanks, Merriam-Webster!  Adrian Gonzalez gets a small boost in value, if ‘small’ meant ‘could there be a better place for him to play?’  You don’t have to be a rocket scientist who gave up his job at JPL to study baseball stats to see the difference between Petco and Fenway.  In Fenway, there’s a giant freakin’ wall 310 feet down the line.  In Petco, there’s a memorial park in left field with a giant Nate Colbert statue that no one’s ever reached.  Wait, that was Kyle Blanks.  Last year, Fenway was 7th for most offense.  Petco was 26th.  I think A-Gon’s Home/Away splits over the last three years say all you need to know.  In 832 home ABs, 112/37/127/.257.  In 927 away ABs, 168/70/192/.310.  Yes, A-Gon can win the MVP in Boston.  I’m not going to belabor (any further) this point.  It’s a huge boon for A-Gon’s value if boon means what I think it does.  Youuuuk gets a small boost in value too now that he’ll be playing 3rd base, eligibility he was about to lose going into 2011.  Anyway, here’s some more recent moves and what they mean for fantasy baseball:

Casey Kelly – The prized piece in the A-Gon trade.  Stephen already went over his Casey Kelly fantasy.  Now that he gets to (eventually) pitch in Petco, his value bumps up, but he still looks at least a year away, if not more.  There’s probably at least three dozen prospects worth looking at before him in dynasty leagues.  There’s a few pitchers in the Padres system alone that are more interesting, in the short term at least.

Kyle Blanks – Looks to be the replacement for Adrian Gonzalez at 1st base and in the lineup, but he “won’t be ready until well after the season starts,” according to the Padres.  When he does return, Blanks could add some power for deep leagues, but his average will be less impressive.  Unless Blanks goes to the plate with David Eckstein in a Baby Bjorn and he tells him what to swing at.

Adam Dunn – Takes his blue ox and heads to the South Side of Chicago.  In related news, the White Sox equipment manager was seen surfing the web for ways to reinforce a wooden bench.  “I’ll tell you what, sonny.  This eHow is the bomb dot com!”  That’s what he said.  Last year, U.S. Cellular Field produced more “You can put it on the board”s than any other stadium.  Wasn’t far off in 2009 and 2008.  Whereas Nationals Park was either average or below average for home runs.  I was going to give Dunn 38 home runs for 2011, this gets him to 40 again.  Don’t think he suddenly becomes a 45-homer guy though.  I mean, he was consistently a 40-homer guy in Great American and that’s a hitter-friendly environment.

Jayson Werth – Signed with the Nats.  Citizens Flank is obviously better for Werth than The House of Strasburg.  Hitting in a lineup with Utley, Howard and Rollins is better than Zimmerman and that guy who plays 1st and that other guy that plays in the outfield.  He has hit well in Nationals Park, he was also facing Nationals pitching.  I was worried Werth would go somewhere to hurt his value and he didn’t disappoint me, which is to say he did.  Zimmerman had 68 runs last year batting third.  Werth had 99 runs batting 5th.  Who’s knocking in Werth in 2011?  Shave some home runs, RBIs, a bunch of runs, some average… Shoot, if he hits 25 home runs and a .275 average with weak runs, I’d be impressed.  Oh, and from a real baseball perspective?  7 years?!

Aaron Harang – Me on December 2nd, “I wouldn’t own Harang in any league unless he pitched in Petco.”  Me on December 3rd, “Score one for the Hodgepadres!”

Jason Varitek – Nooooooo!  Didn’t I just say Saltymochachino was a sleeper?  Why would you sign Varitek?  Ugh.  The good news is Varitek is far from an everyday catcher at this stage in his career, so if Salty can hit his weight on Jupiter than he should see the majority of the ABs.

Hisanori Takahashi – Signed by the Angels.  There’s some rumblings that he’ll be the closer down in Bobby Grichville.  Yeah, you ever see the Sciosciapath make things easy?  Until I hear different from the Los Angeles Suburb of Los Angeles, Rodney will be in the running for saves.

Bobby Jenks – Out as the White Sox closer because the equipment manager can only reinforce so much.  “I’m only one man!”  That’s him again.  Right now, the White Sox closer role is an open audition.  Maybe they can invite Eric Roberts.  He’s always super believable.  Thornton, Santos and Sale are a few possibilities.  In that order.

Ryan Theriot – Heads to the Cardinals.  And I have nothing interesting to say about this.  He’s a 3 homer, 20 steal guy.  If that gives you an erection for longer than ten minutes, you might want to seek out a doctor.

Miguel Tejada – Here’s the by product of Sabean winning a World Series.  He thinks he knows what he’s doing.

Jose Lopez – Damn you, Rockies!  I already wrote a stupid Eric Young Jr. sleeper post.  I’m probably going to still post it.  Or maybe I’ll hold it like I did the Chris Iannetta sleeper post from last year.  Expect that any day now, unless the Rockies sign a different catcher, which they’re wont to do.  They’re wont!  Lopez will probably steal time from Young and Ian Stewart.  Hopefully, he steals more time from Stewart.  Or we can hope Lopez gets hurt in Spring Training.

Shaun Marcum – Blue Kays traded him to the Brewers.  Or, “Zoinks!”  Maybe they thought the Brewers had Greinke.  Beats me.  Either way, Marcum really is getting a sleeper post.  Love this move for his fantasy value.  I really love this move because it came at a time when everyone was ooh’ing and ah’ing over A-Gon so the average fantasy person isn’t going to make much notice of it.  Good stuff all around.  He was a 7.60 K/9 last year in the AL East.  In the NL Central, he can easily go over 8 K/9.  His walks were a minuscule 1.98 per 9.  His xFIP was below 4.  You’re suddenly looking at a fantasy number two starter next year with the chance for more.  All aboard!  Next stop, fantasy value-ville.

Brett Lawrie – Going the other way to socialized medicine is Lawrie.  Stephen went over his Brett Lawrie fantasy already.  Could develop into a 20 homer hitter in the majors and has shown speed already.  He looks like he can be something special and will definitely be on radars for September call-ups in 2011.  I don’t think he breaks camp with the club.

Lance Berkman – Welcome to St. Louis, Guy Who Looks Like He Could Be the Host of Man vs. Food’s Father.  Against righties he should bat between Pujols and Holliday and, well, that’s about all the positives I have for you.  Not to mention, I’m not sure how much of a positive that is since it wasn’t like he became a beast like Tre from Top Chef:  All Stars after he started batting in the Yankee lineup.  Last year, his fly balls went down (literally!), ground balls went up (not literally!), his HR/FB last year was off his career average, but I’m not sure we should expect a huge bounce back.  To quote Cliff’s uncle, Frank Lee, “His skills are declining.”