Fantasy Baseball Advice

On Base Percentage (OBP) is what Skynet created for the Oakland A’s so they could win the World Series and ruin baseball.

Actually, that doesn’t sound quite right. I think OBP is the brew baseball writers’ fermented in a basement to scare Andre Dawson, or it was the reason pitchers feared Jim Rice, thereby making him a Hall of Famer.

I’m all confused. But, apparently, Razzball readers and commentators aren’t. According to the recent survey we conducted (to mine all of your personal information to sell to Facebook), a ton of you play in leagues that swap out average for those crazy on base skills. Accordingly, this changes the value of several players:

Jose Bautista: Over the last three seasons (including Bautista’s generally poor 2009), Bautista has the eighth best OBP. Last season, Bautista was just .001 behind the OBP leader, Miguel Cabrera, and over the last two seasons, Bautista has the third best OBP in all of baseball. The only glaring weakness in Jose Bautista’s armor is average. If you substitute OBP, Bautista is a legitimate best-player-in-the-format candidate.

Lance Berkman: Berkman’s .412 OBP last year was the fifth best in all of baseball and not far off his career mark (.409). While Berkman’s average is typically useful, his OBP is top 10, making him a four-category stud. With OBP instead of average, Berkman should pass the likes of Paul Konerko, Mark Teixeira, and Eric Hosmer and is a top six first baseman.

Adam Dunn: Until 2011, Dunn was the answer to the question of who benefits most from the switch to OBP. Last season, he posted an OBP under .300. Oddly enough his walk rate was close to his career norm, but his already high K-rate spiked, his ISO and BABIP cratered and he hit .159. Dunn can walk and appears to be approaching 2012 with more determination. A return to .350 OBP is certainly plausible and has some upside. Last season, Mike Stanton with a .356 OBP had the 40th best mark.

Prince Fielder: Fielder and Pujols have the same OBP over the last three seasons. During that time, Pujols has just 10 more HRs and eight more RBIs. In addition, during that same span, Cabrera has an OBP .012 points higher, 14 less HRs and 10 less RBIs. Fielder isn’t the top 1B in OBP leagues, but he isn’t far off. His move to the American League could depress his numbers somewhat, but in OBP leagues, he is a top producer.

Carlos Pena: While Carlos Pena’s OBP skills do not produce league leading rates, they do erase the stank displeasure of his putrid batting average. Pena has a .239 career average, but .352 OBP. A first baseman capable of hitting 25-30 HRs with a .355 OBP is top-10 consideration.

Mark Reynolds: Like Pena, Reynolds makes an untenable batting average disappear with a superior walk rate. For his career, his OBP is about 100 points higher than his batting average. While his .323 OBP last season was tied for 99th best, it’s a far cry from where his average would rank him. Reynolds is an incredibly attractive option in OBP leagues, as his immense power is not entirely derailed by a sub-optimal OBP. Grab Reynolds with confidence that you will get a .330 OBP, with 35 HRs and near 100 runs and RBIs.

Carlos Ruiz: Over the last three seasons, Ruiz trails only Joe Mauer in OBP. His .376 mark is far ahead of the third place healthy backstop Brian McCann. An afterthought in most leagues, Ruiz can provide solid catcher production in OBP leagues at virtually no cost. Pencil Ruiz in for a .365 OBP, eight HRs and 50+ runs and RBIs.

Nick Swisher: Nick Swisher in an on base cyborg. When you throw out Ryan Braun, Jose Bautista and Lance Berkman, Swisher has the fourth best OBP over the last three seasons (behind Matt Holliday, Shin-soo Choo and Carlos Beltran). With Swisher’s .365 OBP and the Yankee line-up, runs and RBIs will be there. He’ll also add good pop and, best of all, you don’t have to worry about his .255 average.

Ben Zobrist: Zobrist, who walks at a great clip, has the ability to post the second best OBP at the position (behind Dustin Pedroia). A basic 20-20 guy with 100 runs and RBI potential, Zobrist takes a massive step forward in OBP leagues when they do away with his .260 average.

OBP Sleeper Values

Daric Barton: Over the last three seasons (1,158 plate appearances), Barton has a .373 OBP. He crashed and burned last season, but still posted an above average walk rate. If healthy, Barton should post a .365 OBP with 10 or so HRs, 80 runs and 70 RBIs. He could be a sneaky value in OBP leagues.

Jack Cust: Like Barton, Cust was horrible last year. However he had a .366 OBP from 2009-2011 and is moving from two difficult parks (Oakland and Seattle) to the hitter friendlier Houston and NL Central. In the easier league, Cust’s walk rate should play tremendously, possibly to the tune of a .370 OBP. He could also add 20-25 HRs and solid RBIs. As a flier, Cust’s upside makes the gamble reasonable.

Dexter Fowler: If only Fowler knew how to steal bases! His .365 OBP and 12.1% walk rate last season was a good step forward and echoed his minor league successes. He’ll likely only produce two categories: runs and OBP, but has a decent shot at 20 steals and upside to more if he ever figures out how to use his speed.

Jason Heyward: While Heyward hasn’t quite become a star, he knows how to get on base (13.2% walk rate, .362 OBP). In addition, his legitimate and realistic upside to 20+ HRs and 15 SBs make him worth reaching for in drafts. As he gets on base, he’ll score runs and has a solid shot at triple digits. At the worst, you have a solid run and OBP contributor with a little pop and speed.

Nate McLouth: Aside from a rough 2010, McLouth has shown above average on base skills. In fact, he posted double digit walk rates in every season since 2007, excepting 2008. As a late flier, McLouth makes a ton of sense. He should post a .345 OBP, get close to double digit HRs and steals and provide somewhat solid counting stats.

Geovany Soto: Soto’s treacherous average makes betting on his power unreasonable in average leagues. However, his 11.8% walk rate and .348 OBP solidify his power. As a catcher capable of 17-20 HRs with a .340 OBP, he is a clear top 10 option.

Those that get hurt in OBP leagues

Adrian Beltre: Beltre has been a good hitter throughout his career, especially since his escape from Seattle (.309 average last two seasons). However, he averages just 41 walks a season and has only posted two OBPs above .331 since 2001. His 2011 OBP was lower than that of Edwin Encarnacion, Ryan Roberts, Evan Longoria, Aramis Ramirez, Kevin Youkilis and Michael Young, whereas he had the third highest average among qualifiers at the position last year. He simply doesn’t walk enough and projecting and OBP over .335 is silly. While he remains a top seven option or so, hot corner specialists like Ryan Zimmerman, Youkilis and others can have more of an impact in OBP leagues.

Starlin Castro: There are a ton of shortstops with small gulfs between their averages and OBPs. Castro, who hit .307, is one of those. His average last season was only behind Troy Tulowitzki, however his OBP trailed eight shortstops. Given his age, there is optimism for growth, however Castro loses some luster in OBP leagues.

Robinson Cano: Cano has been a batting average superstar for much of his career. However, aside from 2010, he’s never been an on base machine. Last season, his OBP was seventh at the position and over the last three seasons is fifth. Meanwhile, Dustin Pedroia is an OBP dynamo. Certainly swapping average for OBP closes the gap between Cano and Pedroia. In this format, I wouldn’t mind passing on Cano and securing Pedroia.

Ian Desmond: Desmond just isn’t very good, so we shouldn’t be surprised he gets dinged in OBP leagues. His career .304 OBP was actually better than his effort last season, even though he improved his walk rate. There’s some optimism that Desmond can get his OBP to the .310-.320 range as he did improve his walks and cut down on swinging strikes and swinging at balls, however, over the last three seasons, roughly 30 shortstops have averaged OBPs over .315.

Alcides Escobar: In OBP formats, Escobar becomes a true one-category producer. His career .294 OBP is putrid and he has shown no signs of improvement (his walk rate declined in 2011, he chased more balls out of the zone and swung and missed more). He might be good for 25 steals, but that’s all he’s good for in fantasy.

Jeff Francoeur: Over the last three seasons, Francoeur’s .314 OBP is 75^th among OFs, nestled between Aaron Rowand and Luke Scott. While his OBP improved last season, it was in large part thanks to a .323 BABIP and .285 AVG – he didn’t walk anymore and actually struck out more than normal. It is prudent to temper expectations for Francoeur in OBP leagues, especially because if that OBP suffers he’ll have no chance of reaching 20 steals again.

Ichiro: Just like Dunn has been the perennial gainer in OBP leagues, Ichiro has been the perennial loser. His .351 OBP over the last three seasons is 30^th among OFs, while his .312 average is third. While many expect a bounce back, Ichiro is unlikely to post an OBP above .345, which, last season, would have tied him for 28th at the position. OBP leagues take away one of Ichiro’s calling cards: his superior average and relegate him to #3/#4 OF status.

Adam Jones: Jones really likes to swing the bat; his swing percentages have gone up pretty much across the board every season. In fact, his O-Swing% (the percentage of pitches a batter swings at outside the strike zone) is at Vlad Guerrero levels. While he has been able to post solid averages, his swinging has translated to miniscule walk rates. He’s a fine option for average leagues, but his OBP over the last three seasons is 70th among OFs. In addition, his OBP has been trending downward: .335 in 2009, .325 in 2010 and .319 in 2011.

Here’s a post that’s gonna make you wanna slap ya mama and call her Frances Fisher.  The other day I told you how to draft your pitchers for 2012 fantasy baseball.  I laid it out to you nice and simple (if you have a degree in “What The Hell Is Grey Talking About?”  Not a PhD, mind you.  Just a BS.)  Today, we forget all that jabberwocky on the who-ha and get down to business old school-style (which means if you don’t comprehend, I will hit you over the head with a baseball bat signed by Joe Clark.)  What I’m hoping to lay out to you is who do you draft 2nd if you’ve drafted so and so first.  I think it might be helpful to go through pairings for your 5 outfielders, all your middle and corner infielders too.  I’m not sure I’ll have the time or patience to do them though.   We’ll see!  Or not.  Your choice.  For easy reference, the royal we will be using the top 10 2012 fantasy baseball rankings and the top 20 2012 fantasy baseball rankings.  I’m going to assume you’re in a 12 team, 5×5, MI, CI, 5 OF, 1 Utility, 1 Catcher league.  Anyway, here’s some pairings for the first two rounds of 2012 fantasy baseball drafts:

Miguel Cabrera – I’d put him with just about anyone, but another 1st baseman.  The reality of the situation is you want to get someone that is going to give you a few steals, say, 10.  A third baseman would work, but it might be unrealistic to think you’re going to get Longoria.  That leaves you with Wright.  That doesn’t sound too shabby.  Think about how for the last five years prior to 2011 and you would’ve loved to have Wright and Miggy on the same team.  I say, live in the past and do it.  But I’d say “Do it” like Ben Stiller in the Starsky & Hutch remake.  Now it’s totally not ideal to grab Wright if you think Miggy will get 3rd base eligibility.  Right now, I put it at about 85% that he will have 3rd base eligibility within a few weeks of Opening Day, so if you wanna grab an outfielder instead, I’m not hating the game or the playa (that’s not Spanish for beach).  I say grab Andrew McCutchen or Jay Bruce.  Wanna go for a 2nd baseman?  Kinsler might be there.  Swiggy with one of those three looks real nice to me.  Your team would be balanced heading off to the third pick.  Someone like Reyes or Hanley would also work, though they might not be there.  Now, the risk with not grabbing a 3rd baseman is if Miggy starts treating grounders at third like they’re empty beer cans and starts booting them.  Then you may have punted 3rd and Miggy is sent back to first before his 3rd base eligibility kicks in.  Kicks being the operative word.  Really, as long as you avoid a 1st baseman, catcher and a starter while getting some combo of power and speed, you should be fine.  For those of you who are thinking you can grab a 1st baseman and then move Miggy to 3rd two weeks in, you’re screwed if Miggy doesn’t get 3rd base eligibility, even if that possibility is only slim.  And, yes, that’s the only time Miggy and slim will ever be used in a sentence.  In summation, don’t put unnecessary risk on the table in the first two rounds.

Albert Pujols – More or less the same deal as Miggy, obviously without the possible 3rd base eligibility caveat.  I wouldn’t worry about anything other than trying to get a 2nd pick with at least 10 steals, and no 1st baseman, catcher or starter.

Joey Votto – You could pair Votto with Yuniesky Betancourt and you’d be fine.  Votto’s that good.  Wouldn’t be surprised if he’s a number one pick next year.  Let’s run away together, Joey!  Wait, what am I saying?  Oh, pairings, right.  Yeah, you don’t want Votto with a 1st baseman, obviously.  He’s similar to Miggy and Pujols.  You want a third baseman, but he can work with just about anything.

Jose Bautista – Hey, something other than a 1st baseman.  Yay, Joey Bats!  Anyone but a 3rd baseman would work.  You really want a 1st baseman.  (This is a common theme.  Leave the first two rounds with a 3rd baseman and a 1st baseman and you’re in better shape than the schmohawk who took Hanley and Cano.)  Also, I worry that Bautista’s average might bottom out a little (to the .265 range), so I’d avoid a guy like Kinsler or Stanton.  You don’t want to leave the 2nd round with a potential combined average of .260.  If you take Baustista and a 3rd baseman because you think Bautista can play your outfield, you’re overthinking.  Think of Bautista as a 3rd baseman.  If during the season you need to put him in the outfield because you picked up a 3rd baseman off waivers, then more power to you.  Right now you don’t put him in the outfield because then you’re only going to draft 4 outfielders and scrounge for a 3rd baseman.  Your 3rd baseman is gonna be crap and you’re gonna end up with Bautista there anyway and you’re gonna be short at outfield.  One thing you can do later on is draft a 3rd baseman at your corner infidel slot.  Then if he does well, you can move him into 3rd, Bautista into your outfield and have the flexibility to grab a 1st baseman or 3rd baseman off waivers for your corner slot.

Evan Longoria – Since Longoria’s speed is a little wonky, I’d have no problem pairing him with a guy like Kemp, McCutchen or Reyes.  Kemp might not be realistic though considering he’s been going first in some mocks.  In my fantasy fantasy world, they’d both be there though.  Same goes for Ellsbury.  I’d even pair Longoria with Pedroia since he usually gives hella at-bats and a decent average. Someone like Kinsler or Stanton aren’t terrible, but you’re putting yourself in a potential average hole that you’ll need to dig out of later.  Just keep in mind, Longoria’s average and steals may need help.

Matt Kemp – Position-wise, he doesn’t go with many.  Stats-wise, he goes with everyone, except a pitcher.  This is probably why he’s going number one overall in mocks.  The problem with that is you draft Kemp and you have one outfielder but still need four more of those and have no infielders.  That guarantees you will leave the 2nd round missing at least two of 2nd base, 1st base or 3rd base.  In the best case scenario, you draft Kemp and Longoria or Wright, so you don’t have to worry about 3rd base.  If you get Kemp and Longoria or Wright, you’ll need to pray your Hosmer, Konerko or other 1st base pick works out.  Otherwise, it might be a long season.  Remember, Hosmer looks great right now, but if he was a sure thing, he’d be going in the first round.  If you can get Kemp and Prince Fielder, then more power to you, though that seems like a pipe dream in the mocks I’ve seen.  Kemp and Kinsler is okay, but then you have no 1st baseman or 3rd baseman and you’ll be up against teams with Miggy, Pujols, Longoria, Prince etc.  I.e., you’ll be doomed.  Kemp plus another outfielder is you throwing in the towel after the first two rounds.

Troy Tulowitzki – This isn’t about pairing, but I don’t see how I’m going to draft Tulo in any league this year.  Just going too early for my taste.  Any the hoo!  If I do, I’d give a lookie-loo to a 1st baseman or 3rd baseman, Sam I am, ma’am.  Since Tulo is a power threat at a normally weaker position, I’d also take a speed/power outfielder (McCutchen, CarGo).  You are dealing with more risk though if you go the speed route with your second pick because if Tulo craps out with another injury and you have, say, McCutchen, you may only get around 35 homers combined from your first two picks while Fielder can produce that by himself.  I’d also be wary of going with CarGo.  Not because of the team thing, but more because of the injury-prone thing. I don’t love the idea of Cano and Tulo.  You’re all middle infield.  Why don’t you just go and marry Adam Everett?  Realistically, if you have to draft Tulo in the top 5 to get him, you’re gonna be looking at Wright, Beltre or Bruce at the end of the 2nd round.  I’d take any of them, but now with Bruce, you will have no corner infidels.  It’s precarious.  (Do you see why I always try to go 1st base or 3rd base in the 1st round?)

Justin Upton – Upton is similar to Kemp.  No outfielders with him.  You really should take a corner man.  Longoria’s great if he’s still there, Fielder will work wonders and clean up after himself!

Prince Fielder – I’d take Longoria with Fielder, I’d also take Fielder with Longoria.  See how that works?  Since Fielder is power first, I’d pair him with Reyes, Hanley or McCutchen too.  He’s a similar pairing to Pujols and Miggy.  Kinsler?  Fine!  Wright?  Great!  Instead of gum, chew bacon!  It all works!

Adrian Gonzalez – He could have a bit more risk than Fielder on the average side, but for our purposes he’s nearly identical to Fielder in projections and pairing.

Robinson Cano – No Kinsler or Pedroia.  Similarly to Tulo, since Cano is a power threat at a normally weaker position, I’d take a speed/power outfielder (McCutchen, CarGo), a 1st baseman or a 3rd baseman.  I’d try to avoid Reyes or Hanley.  You don’t want to have to scrounge together an outfield and two corners leaving the 2nd round.

Jacoby Ellsbury – You don’t want an outfielder.  You can take Reyes, Hanley, Pedroia or Kinsler, but then you might only have 35-40 homers after two picks and some people are getting that with one pick.  If a 1st baseman (Votto, Fielder) is there, then you just scored.  If no one is there without reaching down to David Wright, you might have yourself a Javid Wrightsbury combo player that goes 60/60.  Or you might get a player that hurts his hamstring and complains the fences are still too far, leaving you wanting Justdrian Gonzaton.  (<–And that’s how you make an already confusing post, more confusing!)

The other day we went over the top 20 third basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball for our 2012 fantasy baseball rankings.  Today, we turn our bejeweled eyeglasses to the top 20 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball.  The top twenty outfielders will need to go to a top 40 then a top 60 then a top 80.  Unfortunately, outfield is pretty shallow.  Guess outfielders come in waves… much like sperm whales.  Oofa!  For five outfielder leagues, this really blows, which is only a positive if you’re a sperm whale.  Zadow!  As always, these top 20 outfielders are broken up into tiers with my projections.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball:

1. Ryan Braun – Went over his projections in the top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

2. Jose Bautista – Went over his projections in the top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

3. Matt Kemp – Went over his projections in the top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

4. Justin Upton – Went over his projections in the top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

5. Jacoby Ellsbury – Went over his projections in the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

6. Carlos Gonzalez – Went over his projections in the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

7. Andrew McCutchen – Went over his projections in the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball.  This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Pence.  I call this tier, “These players.  ‘What Grey wants in every league, Alex?’”  The outfield isn’t quite as deep as it should be considering there’s three of these suckers playing at any given moment on all teams and the Reds have four.

8. Mike Stanton – Went over his projections in the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

9. Jay Bruce – What we got from Bruce last year may not have been totally Boss, but a guy that can give you a 30+ homer and 8+ steal season is valuable nowadays.  If Bruce manages to pull a rabbit out of his hat, he could improve in all five categories and there will be a magician somewhere wondering why Jay Bruce has his rabbit.  2012 Projections:  90/34/100/.270/10

10. Josh Hamilton – I think the market has finally figured out Hamilton.  No longer is everyone expecting a MVP season every time out.  People have realized he’s Mr. Glass.  When healthy, Hamilton hits homers and a solid average, runs and RBIs.  When he’s not healthy, you plug in someone else.  In 12 team mixed leagues, it’s much easier to do that than in deep AL-Only ones so keep that in mind when drafting.  (In AL-Only leagues or any leagues with less waiver wire options, I’d move Hamilton down to the next tier.)  2012 Projections:  75/27/85/.295/7

12. Nelson Cruz – Take the above and just “find” Hamilton and “replace” with Cruz.  I think the market has finally figured out Cruz.  No longer is everyone–Well, you can do it on your own.  2012 Projections:  70/30/85/.260/10

12. Hunter Pence – He’s a square peg in this round tier.  Everyone else in this tier has crazy upside and some potential pitfalls.  Pence is steady as she goes, Raconteurs.  Last year he hit a few less homers, but I could see him actually hitting a few more homers this year because he won’t be playing under the tyranny of the recently-exiled Ed Wade’s Toupee.  (Was actually surprised Astros fans weren’t more excited about the disposal of the Toupee, but, then again, I don’t think there are Astros fans.)  2012 Projections:  95/25/100/.280/10

13. Curtis Granderson – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Victorino.  I call this tier, “How is this tier different than all other tiers?  This tier I’m going to pass over.”  Went over his projections in the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

14. Matt Holliday – I’m done with Holliday until next year or the year after when he falls into the tier of outfielders with guys like Vernon Wells.  He’s still too coveted for what he used to do rather than what he’s about to do.  Oh, and please don’t ask in the comments if this means I would never draft Holliday.  I would take Pence, Cruz and Bruce before him and I’ve seen Holliday taken before them, so how am I drafting Holliday?  I’m not taking four outfielders in the course of one pick, i.e., I’m not drafting Holliday before others so I’m not getting him.  Sorry to longtime readers who had to read that, but I feel like I always get these questions around the time of rankings.  2012 Projections:  85/24/90/.305/5

15. Lance Berkman -  Went over Berkman’s projections at the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball post.

16. Shane Victorino – We had a good run.  Victorino and I.  It’s come to an end.  Howard’s banged up, Utley’s a nail clipping incident away from the 15-day DL and Rollins has more miles on him than your Chrysler LeBaron.  Victorino’s runs and RBIs will be affected.  His speed is affected by his age, and he’s not a big power threat.  If he falls far enough I could see maybe taking him, but it’s time to bid him aloha.  The goodbye version of aloha, that is.  2012 Projections:  85/15/55/.275/20

17. Michael Morse – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here into the top 40 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball.  I call this tier, “I’ll happily reach for one of these guys if I have to, in the non-sexual way.  Though it’s kinda sad this is the third tier of outfielders that I’m excited about.  Times is tough, yo.”  Went over Morse’s projections at the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball post.

18. Desmond Jennings – I already went over my Desmond Jennings 2012 fantasy.  While I wrote it, a leprechaun with a broken GPS looking for a rainbow appeared out my window.  2012 Projections:  80/16/65/.275/35

19. B.J. Upton – Honestly, I might be the only fantasy baseball ‘pert who doesn’t mind Fellatio Upton.  Sure, he hits for a wonky average, but so does your mom.  (Actually, I don’t know how well your mom hits for average.  Though she looks like she can’t leg out many infield hits on those cankles.)  Upton hits for power and steals bases.  I’m willing to go out on a limb that he can luck into a .260 average one of these years with his wheels and still go 20/40.  At 27 years of age, this is the year I’m betting on.  2012 Projections:  80/20/85/.250/40

20. Adam Jones – He has a few strikes against him.  But games haven’t started yet?!  Strikes against him was a figure of speech, Random Italicized Voice.  Jones’s ground ball rate isn’t great, which makes me think we’ll need to be lucky to get over 25 homers and his walk rate is near abysmal.  A guy that can give 25/12/.285 is valuable though in today’s bear market, which only sounds like a grocery store in The Castro.  2012 Projections:  80/25/90/.285/12

We finish off the infield with the top 20 3rd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.  The 2012 fantasy baseball rankings from shallowest to deepest go shortstops, third basemen, catchers, 2nd basemen then 1st basemen.  That’s right, I think the catchers and 2nd basemen are deeper than the 3rd basemen.  3rd base gets the gas face.  In 2009, I punted 3rd base for Mark Reynolds late.  Worked out fine.  In 2010, I punted 3rd base for Ian Stewart late.  Didn’t work out fine.  In 2011, I really wanted a top 3rd baseman and punted Jose Bautista while targeting Pedro Alvarez, Ryan Zimmerman and David Wright, which taught me a valuable lesson.  I’m a moron.  (A very hurtful lesson, mind you.)  As with other top 20 rankings, I list where I see tiers beginning and ending and my projections.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 3rd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball:

1. Jose Bautista – His projections can be found at the top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

2. Evan Longoria – His projections can be found at the top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

3. David Wright – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Reynolds.  I call this tier, “We’re too early in a top 20 for question marks.  So why are there so many question marks?”  Honestly, how many times can we go to this Wright well?  The Wright well hasn’t paid whividends in a whery, whery whong time.  Stupid Elmer Fudd voice in my head.  The one non-scientific stat we have to look at is how he’s alternated good power years with bad ones and in 2012 we’re due for a good one.  Yeah, that’s so non-scientific it’s kinda silly.  The better news is The Great Wall of Flushing is coming down and in.  That’s definitely a cheaper way to acquire offense than signing Pujols or Fielder and more legal than accidentally bumping into players with a steroid needle.  How much the new dimensions will actually affect Wright’s power is threefold.  First fold, his “Just Enough” homers could increase.  Second fold, the park’s size may have got in his head and psychologically he may feel more confident about hitting at Metco and end up hitting more homers.  Third fold, there’s no third fold.  Who ever heard of a third fold?  2012 Projections:  85/24/100/.290/15

4. Adrian Beltre – Great lineup, great ballpark, one man who they call “The Guy Who Brings Them Towels In The Locker Room” sneezes and the whole team goes down with the flu for 15 days.  Yeah, I’m not sure why, but no one on the Rangers gets injured by themselves.  They’re like dominos.  Nelson Cruz goes down, then there goes Hamilton, there goes Kinsler, there goes Beltre… It’s a shame to blame one man but The Guy Who Brings Them Towels In The Locker Room does have shifty eyes.  2012 Projections:  75/28/100/.280/3

5. Pablo Sandoval – After wrestling to lose weight and change his name to Sandrectangle, Pablo embraced his girth and hit 23 homers last year.  Still this guy’s big question mark is where does he find pants that fit him?  Oh, and is the power for real?  It looks like it is plus or minus 2 homers from the 23 last year.  Maybe he can pass his cure of blimpotence over to Billy Butler.  Also, similarly to Butler, Sandoval’s got a way with the good average.  After a flukey injury sidelined him last year expect a nice step forward.  2012 Projections:  80/27/95/.320/3

6. Ryan Zimmerman – In my special no-no area, I have a tingling sensation that Zimmerman’s about to have a huge year.  He’s 27, an age when hitters really hit their prime, and he’s proven before that he can hit 30+ homers if he stays healthy.  Mummify him in bubble wrap and send him out to take grounders!  2012 Projections:  80/27/100/.290/5

7. Brett Lawrie – Yeah, I ranked him pretty high.  We’re going to talk about two hypothetical scenarios.  First scenario has you drafting Lawrie before your leaguemates.  All your leaguemates groan, they all wanted him.  Lawrie starts off the season slow and people are glad they didn’t draft him.  (Or he starts off fast.  Either scenario work for this scenario.  We’ll call these Scenarios 1A and 1B.)  Then he turns things around in 1A, everyone wants him.  Or he continues pounding the ball in 1B and everyone still wants him.  You could trade him for a much more valuable piece or you can ride the wave.  Second scenario (2A), you draft Aramis, he gets hurt in May and no one wants him, not even you.  Then Aramis comes back and hits, but still no one wants him because people don’t trust him to stay healthy.  Or (2B) you trade Aramis for less than his worth because you just want to be done with him and then he continues to hit and you get an ulcer.  In 1A and 1B, you have Lawrie or whatever you want (within reason and depending on what your state constitution allows).  In 2A, you have a piece you don’t even want and an ulcer (2B).  I also went over my Brett Lawrie 2012 fantasy.  2C click the link. 2012 Projections:  90/20/70/.290/24

8. Alex Rodriguez – When I was doing my research for A-Rod, I was looking through some of his past years — 52 homers, 18 steals in 2001, 57 homers and 9 steals in 2002 — how again did we not know there was steroids in baseball?  I mean, every BBWAA member is saddened and disheartened and synonym now when they talk about these players besmirching the good name of baseball.  Why weren’t they saddened etc. when it was going on?  Wasn’t it obvious?  I wasn’t bothered because during these years I was smoking weed.  Was every BBWAA member high?  Any the hoo!  A-Rod’s presumably clean of the clear now, but his body is breaking down because of the years on it.  That’s his question mark.  Can he stay healthy?  I have my doubts.  2012 Projections:  70/24/85/.270/5

9. Aramis Ramirez – When Aramis signed with the Brewers, I went over my Aramis fantasy.  I wrote it while karaoking to Air Supply’s Even the Nights are Better.  2012 Projections:  75/25/95/.295

10. Kevin Youkilis – Okay, basically no 3rd baseman can stay healthy.  I think something that gets lost in the Sawx hype is The Greek God of Can’t Walk Half The Time has hit less than 20 homers over more seasons than he’s hit above 25 homers and has never hit more than 29 homers.  Pablo Sandoval, who’s 7 years younger than him, has as many 20+ homer seasons.  Youuuuuuk is a good name for people who like names.  For people who like players to actually hit, he’s not as good.  2012 Projections:  75/19/85/.270/3

11. Michael Young -  Went over Young’s projections in the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.

12. Mark Reynolds – Went over Reynolds’s projections in the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.

13. Emilio Bonifacio – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Roberts.  I call this tier, “You should draft someone else.” Went over Bonifacio’s projections at the top 20 shortstops for 2012 fantasy baseball.

14. Ryan Roberts – Went over Roberts’s projections at the top 20 2nd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.

15. Mike Moustakas – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Stewart.  I call this tier, “The good news, but it comes with degrees of risk.”  This is the good news because 3rd base is about to get infusion of talent.  To use a phrase that sounds like a cliche, brighter days are on the horizon.  Whether it’s Moose, Valencia, Stewart or Gamel, one or more of these guys should provide sneaky value.  Obviously not all of them will, so choose wisely.  I wrote a Moustakas 2012 fantasy post already.  It’s six parts brilliant and one part dumb.  It’s up to you decide which is which.  2012 Projections:   60/20/80/.270/4

16. Danny Valencia – Valencia, California is also known non-ironically as Awesometown.  So I suggest we call him Danny Awesometown.  Makes you more excited about Valencia, doesn’t it?  No?!  Geez, you’re tough.  How about the fact he can hit almost 20 homers and get maybe three steals?  That gets you going, doesn’t it?  All right, how about Danny Might-Be-Solid-Considering-How-Late-You-Can-Draft-Him-town?  2012 Projections:  75/18/85/.265/3

17. Mat Gamel – Here’s what I said earlier this offseason, “No one likes Mat Gamel.   The Brewers wanted to try Gamel in Spring Training last year and he was 30 pounds overweight.  Lay off the mayonnaise, doode.  His Triple-A manager said he’s “hard-headed.”  (No one ever said that of Justin Morneau.)  I get this feeling with a beat provided by will.i.am that Gamel is gonna go the way of Matt Murton.  I hope he doesn’t.  I hope he gets a real shot at 1st base in Spring Training.  I think now that McGehee is gone he will.  Even if all Gamel does is hit homers and make errors.  In 2007, Milwaukeeans called that The Braun Exacta.  I propose the Brewers correct Gamel’s defensive problems similar to how the Rockies went to the humidor.  They should put The Vacuum in Miller Park.  Whenever the visiting team is hitting, you turn The Vacuum to suck and watch as everything is hit to the left side.  The Vacuum sucks so Gamel doesn’t blow.  He had another great year at Triple-A — 28 homers, .310.  He looks like he’s more than ready with the bat.  Definitely will be someone I’ll look at late in drafts for my corner infidel spot.  Could get a cheap 25 homers and a .290 average.”  And that’s me quoting me!  In the end, Gamel is either going to give you 25 homers or 2 homers and you have to drop him because he’s lost the job.  2012 Projections:  60/25/75/.290

18. Ian Stewart – Incredibly, I’m willing to give Mini Mini Donkey one more chance, especially if he’s being drafted late enough.  For a late round flyer what does Stewart have over, say, Pedro Alvarez?  He’s had a full season where he hit 25 homers.  That’s one.  Why him over, say, Freese?  Same reason.  Over Prado?  Same reason.  Stewart also his sneaky 7 to 10 steal speed like his mentor, Mini Donkey. 2012 Projections:  60/24/75/.245/7

19. David Freese – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Edwin Encarnacion.  I call this tier, “My New Year’s Resolution was to not see the movie New Year’s Eve and to draft a 3rd baseman before this tier.”  2011 World Series MVP David Freese has little power, no speed and the hype of changing his name to 2011 World Series MVP David Freese.  Oh, and he can’t stay healthy.  Sounds like he should be the mayor of Awesometown.  2012 Projections:  55/15/65/.290

20. Martin Prado -  The other day Prado showed up at my window singing The Promise by When In Rome.  He was trying to curry favor with me because he knows that his lack of power and speed makes me not want to draft him ever.  When he was done singing, I still didn’t want to draft him but I did invite him in for some risotto.  I have a big heart!  2012 Projections:  80/12/70/.300/5

After the top 20 3rd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball, there’s lots of names, but these five stand out:

Edwin Encarnacion – He’s either going to stay healthy and hit .250 with 25 homers or get hurt and have 15 homers and .250.  In most leagues, you’re not going to hold onto him if you draft him so why bother?  Go for upside with someone else.  2012 Projections:  60/20/70/.255/3

Scott Sizemore – UPDATE:  OUT FOR THE YEAR You really shouldn’t have Sizemore on your team outside of AL-Only leagues, and even there he leaves a lot to be desired.  Here’s the deal — dealio, if you’re trying to sound hip but aren’t really — 3rd base is not a deep position and if you’re this deep you don’t have many options.  Sizemore had his best season last year with a 11/5 season and that looked like it was ceiling, and with a ceiling like that who needs floors? (<–I think that makes sense.  Think about it.)  2012 Projections:  65/10/70/.260/7

Lonnie Chisenhall – I already went over my Lonnie Chisenhall fantasy.  I counted six typos.  2012 Projections:  65/20/80/.250/3

Casey McGehee – Casey McGehee is a Baha Man.  He was a guy who looked destined to be a utility man, had a huge season and people started inserting Casey McGehee into the poem, Casey at the Bat.  Turned out he was a utility man who lucked into a big season and those same people wished they didn’t use pen when inserting his name into the poem, so they changed McGehee to MacDonald and told everyone they did a mash-up of Casey at the Bat and Old MacDonald.  2012 Projections:  60/16/70/.260

Pedro Alvarez -  Yes, Casey McGehee might steal his playing time.  What I think actually happens is Alvarez or McGehee goes to first base and the other plays — I don’t know — third base.  Last year all went wrong for PeAl (hmm, that nickname doesn’t really work).  The first year he had a 30.8% K-rate, but he was buoyed by a .341 BABIP.  When his BABIP came back to earth, his K-rate left a crater the size of the Grand Canyon in his average.  He needs to cut back on his Ks or he’s going to be back in the minors, carrying his own bags and staying in dumps with no running water.  Well, that sorta sounds like nice hotels in Pittsburgh, but you catch my drift.  2012 Projections:  60/18/75/.240

What time is it?!  8:25 AM! No, random italicized voice, it’s time for the 2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings.  Second guess. All the 2012 fantasy baseball rankings will live in that link.  The one that reads 2012 fantasy baseball rankings.  It’s also at the top of the page.  No, not “Home.”  To the left of the Fantasy Baseball Forum link.  Now we’re cooking with gas!  If you’re a completist, follow us on Twitter or Facebook.  I don’t go to either site longer than 2 minutes a month, but, as I’ve told ex-girlfriends, sometimes all you need is two minutes.  Hmm… Maybe that’s why they’re ex.  Nah, if I were a selfish lover, I wouldn’t have a mustache.  Now my expositional half insists I breakdown some generalizations about these 2012 fantasy baseball rankings.  The 2012 fantasy baseball rankings will be an ever-evolving mass like the blob.  This fantasy baseball top 10 for 2012 list is as of right now and could potentially change with a big injury or Miguel Cabrera breaking a tooth on his maple bat as he tries to extract hops.  So while it is the 2012 fantasy baseball gospel, take it with a tablet of salt.  Tomorrow we will cover the rest of the top twenty for 2012 fantasy baseball then we will go around the horn with a top 20 list for every position.  Then for pitchers and outfielders, I’ll turn the dial to 80.  Listed next to each player are my 2012 projections.  Did I consult with whoever else does projections?  It would be ignorant not to, but in the end they are my projections.  Players need 10 games at a position to get included in the positional rankings.  Finally, as with each list in the 2012 fantasy baseball rankings, I will be mentioning where I see tiers start and stop.  I look at tiers like this, if Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols are in the same tier, it doesn’t matter if one guy is ranked 2nd and one guy is ranked 3rd, they’re both very close. It comes down to personal preference.  I would prefer the guy at number one better than the guy at three, but you do you, I’ll do me and let’s hope we don’t go blind.  Anyway, here’s the top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball:

1. Ryan Braun – Would I be happy to take Pujols third?  Oh, hecksfire.  I’ll bludgeon snitches for Pujols third.  Still doesn’t mean Pujols is first.  I’m not ranking Braun number one to be different than every Tom, Dick and Berry.  Braun’s gonna be 28 and he’s headed for a Hall of Fame career.  Pujols is a Latin 32.  The 1st base eligibility is nice, but outfield isn’t exactly stacked in 5 outfielder leagues.  I don’t think we’re going to get another season of 33 steals, but he steals 15 bases like a fat kid likes cake.  He gets little bumps and bruises, but he also hasn’t played in less than 150 games in his career (excluding his rookie year).  His average last year was on the high side, but he’s still a career .312 hitter.  Are you paying for an MVP year by taking him first?  Maybe, but his off year is better than 99% of players and he’s consistent.  Give me consistent and let me gamble later in the draft.  That’s not Rudy Gamble.  Oh, and this is the first tier.  It goes from here until Bautista.  I call this tier, “The top five.  Dur.”  2012 Projections:  105/35/110/.310/15

2. Miguel Cabrera – Even while touring the country with his stage production of Leaving Las Vegas, he still put up MVP-type numbers.  Know why?  Cause Swiggy Cabrera is a freak of nature.  Look at Babe Ruth, Mickey Mantle and Sam Kinison.  Substance abuse never stopped any of them… Until they hit their 40′s, started bloating and showing up places three days late with nothing but a red Solo cup.  I almost ranked Pujols number two and Miggy third.  If you went that way, I wouldn’t hate on you.  They’re in the same tier, y’all!  I’m still looking forward, not looking back.  Miggy will be 29 years old for the majority of the 2012 season and he’s solidly in his prime.  He doesn’t give you around ten steals like Pujols.  You know what Pujols doesn’t give you?  Healthy elbow tendons.  Miggy’s power has been just okay for him recently, but he’s still good for 30 homers.  So, like Miggy should’ve done, just temper yourself. 2012 Projections:  105/32/115/.325/3

3. Albert Pujols – I already went over my Pujols 2012 fantasy.  I wrote that while base jumping in the Grand Canyon.  I will say something less sarcastic than Grey usually says (but just as 3rd person-y).  Grey got to see the tail end of Pete Rose’s career, Barry Bonds’s head swelling, Pedro Martinez’s prime with him asking “Who is Karim Garcia?” and enjoyed Cal Ripken’s achievements, but, with Pujols, we’re witnessing one of the top five greatest baseball players ever.  That’s pretty cool.  I will now return to being as cynical as the internet requires.  Thanks a lot, Al Gore!  2012 Projections:  100/35/110/.305/7

4. Joey Votto – He’s more or less a 30-homer, 10-steal, .315-average, 100-run, 100-RBI hitter.  If you get more, then you have the best hitter for fantasy baseball.  If you get less, you will barely get less and he will still be a top 20 hitter.  I’ll take that every day and twice on Muesday.  Last year his walk rate went up and K-rate went down.  His line drives went up so high (not literally) that it actually hurt his power a smidge.  Whatever.  If the worst thing that happens is that he hits too many line drives, you need to listen to your grandfather tell you about walking to school barefoot in the snow while wearing a burlap sack and being required to sing Ethel Merman, i.e., things could be worse.  2012 Projections:  100/30/110/.315/10

5. Jose Bautista – Okay, let’s address the elephant in the room.  No, Prince Fielder isn’t in my room while I write this.  The elephant in the room is I have Bautista after Votto.  I have Bautista lower than some other fantasy baseball ‘perts.  It’s the same tier, but I’m still wary of Bautista.  I’m trying here.  I made a life-sized Bautista cardboard cutout with outstretched arms and I fell into it for a trust exercise and he dropped me.  Bad omen, I say as if I were Yoda.  My biggest fear is after not trusting Bautista last year I will finally draft him and he bombs in the bad way.  Since there’s nothing in his stats that say this should happen, it’s probably totally unrealistic.  Yet… Ugh.  Bautista, why do you conflict me?   2012 Projections:  100/38/105/.265/10

6. Evan Longoria – I want Longoria in every league this year.  If I see him ranked 5th overall by someone else, then I’m moving him up to 4.  If he’s ranked number 4 by someone, I’m moving him up to 3.  If someone has the gall to rank him first, I’m ranking him zero.  And don’t make me go to Sub-Zero.  Ryu-ken!  You best believe I’m Tekken Longoria!  (That’s a pun for the kids.)  His average was .244 last year due to a pee-poor BABIP.  Yet, his K-rate actually went down and his walk rate went up.  His steals went down but he was on first 28 less times last year.  He can easily get 7 to 10 steals if he sees first just a few more times.  I’m not even going to talk about runs and RBIs because of how fickle they are, but there’s no reason to think he won’t see production.  You’re not drafting guys for last year.  You’re drafting them for 2012.  Wanna play in a 2011 throwback league?  Get in a DeLorean and hit the gas.  I’m living on Wisteria Lane and texting Tony Parker what he’s missing.  This, friends, is Longoria’s MVP year.  Oh, and this is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Justin Upton.  I call this tier, “I’m fine taking one of these guys with my first pick; Tulo better not disappoint me.  Why do I always have such trepidations about Tulo?  Maybe it’s the fact he can’t ever stay healthy.”  2012 Projections:  105/34/120/.280/7

7. Matt Kemp – When he lost the MVP, he said now he’s going to go 50/50.  That’s nice, and Tom Cruise wants to be five inches taller so he can see the top of Katie Holmes’s head.  Neither are happening any time soon.  Kemp’s BABIP last year was .380.  Even with his career BABIP’s being fairly high, that’s high.  When his luck regresses and, with as much as he strikes out, he’s not hitting .324 again.  He probably won’t hit .300.  With less times on base, he’ll have fewer steals.  His power was off the charts too.  2011 was a career year.  No matter how much he wants to exceed it.  That doesn’t mean a .290 hitter going 30/25 can’t be valuable.  2012 Projections:  100/30/105/.290/25

8. Troy Tulowitzki – Something about 30 homers just makes everything better.  If Tulo would’ve missed the month of September and only had 27 homers, I think more people would’ve been pushing away from him this year, but he reached that arbitrary benchmark and he has the nice position eligibility.  One of these years we’re actually going to get a full season from Tulo and he’s going to blow the world away.  Since he’s only 27 years old for 2012, it may as well be this year.  Worst case scenario, you get solid 5 categories from a terrible position and he misses a month of games.  Best case scenario, he plays 150+ games, puts up MVP-type numbers and wins you a house during the Century 21 Home Run Derby.  2012 Projections:  95/32/110/.305/10

9. Justin Upton – In the first few rounds, I want as many proven, consistent performers as I can find.  I don’t think that’s Upton.  But he’s so tantalizing!  And talented!  And he’s not an average drain like Fellatio Upton, who is not Kate Upton, though you’d like to think so.  Upton might be the best outfielder and the number one overall pick by next year.  He just went 31/21/.289 at the age of 23 and didn’t do a whole lot that says he can’t do it again.  If anything, he could easily exceed last year’s numbers. At such a young age though, he could take a step back and disappoint.  At the turn in the first round, it’s not a bad gamble to grab Upton and someone less risky like Prince Fielder.  Want someone that could put up the season Kemp just did in 2011?  Little Ups is your man.  2012 Projections:  100/30/100/.300/20

10. Prince Fielder – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here into the top 20 for fantasy baseball.  I call this tier, “Less exciting than the next tier, but more consistent.”  Immediately you have to ask yourself if you want sexy or consistent.  Sexy can win championships, but consistent can too, which is in no way related to Jorge Cantu.   Fielder is the Saberhagen of hitters.  Your grapes would be hard-pressed to find a hitter that alternates between a great year and a solid, if unspectacular year more than Fielder.  If that holds, we’re looking forward to a solid, if unspectacular year, which almost had me knock him down the rankings.  In the end, I felt that whole on-again, off-again year-to-year performance thing was too anecdotal to give too much credence.  Then I sued John Fogerty because I wanted to use the word credence.  When Prince signed with the Tigers, I went over my Prince Fielder fantasy.  It only has two fat jokes.  Sorry.  2012 Projections:  100/37/115/.280