Fantasy Baseball Advice

The Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame (in conjunction with Razzball.com) is a new website dedicated to recognizing the accomplishments of Major League ballplayers during the “fantasy era” (1980-present). The greatest of these players will be elected to the Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame. To read more on the FBHOF, click here.

The catchers are enshrined today, a position that is the weakest in the history of fantasy baseball.  The corresponding FBHOF page for the catchers can be found here.

I have dreaded writing this article for about six weeks now.  By my methodology only one catcher since 1980 deserves induction into the Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame and I haven’t been able to convince myself I am being too harsh.  If we went position by position we find the following number of inductees:

15 – Outfield
6 – First Base
3 – Second Base
3 – Third Base
2 – Shortstop
1 – Catcher

This actually makes a bit of sense.  Outfielders take 5 of 14 offensive roster slots in standard leagues, and as we have seen first basemen have perennially been the power house position.  Further, if only two shortstops are worthy of enshrinement, maybe one catcher is too.

And isn’t this what fantasy baseball is mostly about?  The debate on positional scarcity is still around, and for those not familiar with it, it basically states that owners should put a premium on good players at weak positions.  I agree to a degree, but still would never draft a catcher first, no matter how much better he is than his peers.  In truth, whenever there are weak positions drafted first (See Hanley Ramirez, circa 2008) it’s almost entirely because their statistics back it up.  Ramirez could hit 35 HR and steal 60 bases while batting .300.  That’s elite for a shortstop, first basemen, or outfielder.

This same phenomenon was seen with catchers.  A few years ago the trend seemed to move towards drafting catchers early – Joe Mauer and Brian McCann were sometimes taken in Round 2. While this may have worked for a single season, in terms of career value, it’s a bust. McCann was ranked 89th last year, Mauer 107th.  Catcher is a demanding position, and while there have certainly been instances of greatness over the course of a single season, and perhaps greatness enough to demand a spot high draft pick – the excellence required for FBHOF induction just hasn’t proved sustainable at the catcher position.

To be clear on my methodology, I do take positional scarcity into consideration.  Each FBHOF score is calculated by first looking at the player among the entire batting pool (or pitcher pool) and then only against a player peers who were eligible at the same position.  The two scores are then weighted – 60% for the straight score and the remaining a product of the positional score.  This is nothing to sneeze at, as 40% of the players score is solely a function of how good he is at a position.

With this out of the way, we are still left searching for recurring brilliance.  You likely already realize that Mike Piazza is the lone inductee.  And why is this?  Because his batting line reads like that of any other inducted player.  His FBHOF points by year are 15.2, 12.6, 11.5, 11.4, 10.8 giving him 61.4 peak score.  This is 27th best among batters and ahead of three fellow Hall of Famer’s – Cal Ripken, Craig Biggio, and Frank Thomas.

We’ll get back to Piazza’s accomplishments in a moment. First, I wanted to finish the answer as to why only one catcher.  Before I answer, ask yourself the following question – does a player have to have five great seasons to be considered for the Hall of Fame?  My answer is a resounding yes.  Five years in awfully short period of time, and no Baseball Hall of Famer is ever inducted based upon such a short career.  If we are focusing on such a short time at the FBHOF, those years had better be great.  From what we have seen since we started inductions in late April, not one inductee has had less than five great seasons.  With that said, here are the 5th best seasons for each of the Top 5 Catchers (as determined by FBHOF score):

This illustrates two things to me.  First, Piazza was really, really good if that was his 5th best season.  Second, the rest of those scores don’t impress me all that much (though keep in mind 1981 was a shortened season).  Over the past 20 years there most certainly have been numerous ‘Hall of Fame seasons’, but not careers:

In 1985 Carlton Fisk hit 37 home runs, driving in 107 runners and scoring 85 himself.  He even stole 17 bases.  But he batted .238 and averaged just 74 R and 71 RBI in his next three best years.

We all have love Darren Daulton’s 1992 season right?  .270 AVG, 80 R, 27 HR, 109 RBI, and 11 SB in low offense year, marks good enough for 7th overall.  But you could hardly consider the rest of his career fantasy worthy – an average of 63 R, 70 RB, and a .265 BA over his remaining 4 best years.

Javy Lopez sure was impressive in 1998 and 2003-2004, hitting 100 HR and 301 RBI while maintaining a .310 batting average.  But he was ranked just 84th and 85th in years four and five.

One more for you – Jorge Posada.  He’s likely going to the Baseball Hall of Fame at this rate but outside of last season his average for his “next best 4 years” is .275 / 80 / 25 / 94 / 2, with a rank 52nd overall and 4th among catchers.  Do I want him on my fantasy team?  Yes, of course.  Is he going to make or break my season?  No, and he therefore passes the red face test as to whether or not he’s HOF worthy.

Finally, the case of Piazza proves that it is possible to make the FBHOF as a catcher.  Love him or loathe him, he could hit with the best of them.   His 5 best years:

What truly separates Piazza from his catcher brethren, and every other baseball player of the fantasy era for that matter, is the fact he had more seasons ranked number 1 at his position than any other.   From 1993 to 2002 he finished 1st at catcher nine times – more than Alex Rodriguez (8), Albert Pujols (6), Paul Molitor (5), Ryne Sandberg (5), Cal Ripken (4), or Barry Bonds (3).  This is an incredible accomplishment.

Note:  Earlier I mentioned positional scarcity score.  Thought it might be interesting to list the top 5 seasons at each position based solely on positional scarcity:

Dr. Julie Andrews sure has been busy lately. First sending Posada to the DL now Smoltz. Officially Smoltz has a severely old arm that has been severely overused which leaves him severely doubtful for a while. Actually, that wasn’t official, but let’s just say the injury news reaffirms a sore arm that first appeared in March. So what does that mean? It means you’re S.O.L — shit out of luck. I wouldn’t be surprised if Smoltz isn’t around for a few months and even when he returns, it may not be for long. He may just return, pitch a few times then reinjure himself. So what do you do? Well, you put him on your DL or you trade him for fifty cents on the dollar. I suggest you trade him. Old pitchers with a ton of innings on their arm who complain of arm soreness in spring training, then go on the DL with the same arm soreness, aren’t good ones to hold onto. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Johnny Cueto - Um, yeah… Well, he did retire César Izturis once. Okay, he was rocked. By the Cardinals. Badly. But he’s not the first rookie pitcher to get hit hard. Last year, Lincecum and Gallardo both had their hiccups (or vomitings, depending on your POV). He’s a rookie pitcher and these things have to be weathered or get out of the rookie pitcher game. Will Cueto continue to get rocked? Let’s hope not, but he’s a rookie. He did tweak something in his leg last time out, so maybe that was the issue. Let’s hope so. He still has a tremendous K/BB ratio. You can’t drop him to waivers yet as much as you might want to.

Derrek Lee - I said in January, “In the 2nd half last year, he finally regained his power that was so badly missing after his wrist injury. Post-All-Star break in ’07, he hit 16 of his 22 homers. Watch this trend continue into ‘08.” And that’s me quoting me! Can he hit 45 home runs? Doubtful, but 35 seems more than doable.

Joe Borowski - He’s playing toss, which is to say he’s throwing as hard as he can. Oofa! Yeah, he’s still a few weeks away from pressing Betancourt and even then, I’m skeptical he can be an effective closer. Although…

Rafael Betancourt - Was a shook one. Beltre (who had three walks in a game for the first time since 2004!) hit a bomb. Betancourt’s still fine. For now. Stay posted.

Ben Sheets - Six times in his career he’s walked five or more batters. Tonight he walked seven. I’m guessing he’s hiding an injury. I know, big surprise.

Alfonso Soriano - He’s coming back from the DL on Thursday and will immediately go into the leadoff spot. I’d field offers to see what I could get because, as always, before the injured player returns he has the most value. I wouldn’t trade him for a chicken fetus and toast, but, ya know, send out feelers.

Jonathan Broxton - Looks to be headed to the DL. This actually hurts me more than Smoltz because I have Broxton on a lot of teams. It was described as an injury simliar to Rich Harden’s. *sticking my head in the oven*

Troy Tulowitzki - Ugh. He left the game with an apparent leg injury. Hopefully it’s nothing to serious because he hasn’t even started to hit yet. The last thing his owners (me on a lot of teams) need is for him to be sidelined and never get on track. Baker was supposed to start last night. *turning on the oven*

Chad Cordero - Going back to the DL. Maybe Nomar and Blalock can work him into their carpool schedule. Kids gotta go to school!

Troy Glaus - I know it’s not a sexy pick, but, as I keep saying, he can help you.

Kevin Kouzmanoff - This guy is laying a major turd baby in every single at-bat. Honestly, I thought last year’s 1st half slump was simply a rookie adjusting and his 2nd half numbers were a sign that he would come out fast this year. Well, this article I wrote way back in December was a joke, but seems eerily prescient (Word of the Day, bitches!).

Joel Pinero, Carlos Silva and Josh Fogg - Combined for like 80 innings of 2 run baseball yesterday with like a .00001 WHIP. Why won’t my pitching suck?!

Ryan Zimmerman - Hit his first home run since April 2nd. I’m still not a fan, but this might lead to a hot streak. Those Zimmerfans out there better hope so.

Jose Guillen - If picking up Guillen off waivers causes you to have an erection for longer than four hours, you need to see a doctor, but I told you last week he was a good buy low. Is he exciting? No, but he’ll get some home runs.

Chipper Jones - Player of the month. I’d still trade him tomorrow for the right offer. In fact, I suggest you start trying to trade him. He won’t stay healthy for 150 games like he wants to. His value will never be higher than it will be today.

Mike Cameron - Returned and was placed right into the two hole. He went 3-for-5 with two runs and two RBIs. I felt like Tejada was a great pick this year because he wanted to prove to people that he was clean and under 35. By that twisted logic, Cameron could also be in for a good year. If you won’t pick him up because he cheated, grab JR Towles — he went to Jesus Camp.

Well, you gotta deal with Y!’s crappy waiver wire again, rather than just being able to pick Max Scherzer up. For the uninitiated, he’s a flamethrower with a Nazi sounding name who was called up by the Diamondbacks.  In Triple-A, he sported a 1.17 ERA and a 38/3 K/BB ratio. That’s good, ya’ll. I’d drop just about any fifth starter or second tier middle reliever to pick him up, even in mixed leagues. Keeper leagues and NL-Only leagues should go after him strong.  If he’s inserted into the rotation (and with Micah Ownings ailing, it seems like he will be), he could be as good Johnny Cueto. Which is to say, ups and downs, but very dominant stuff. He can be a bit wild at times, but if this season’s K/BB ratio is any indication, he might have tamed that problem. His spot in the rotation, as of right now, is tentative at best. Anyway, here’s what else I saw today:

Jorge Posada - Going into the season, Posada looked like one of the bigger possible busts (not including Billy Butler’s moobs) because of his unsustainable average from last year, and now he hits the DL for the first time in his career at the ripe age of 36. I think he might be out for the season because he’s going to see Dr. Julie Andrews, the doctor that puts careers on hold for years at a time. Even if Posada doesn’t need season-ending surgery, you don’t need him. Some catchers I’d look at:  Doumit, Navarro, Saltalamacchia, Snyder, Suzuki — really depends on needs, but that’s the order I’d grab those catchers if value was all you were concerned in.

Mike Cameron - Krispie Young Sr. aka Mr. 20/20/.250 is due back on Tuesday. He shouldn’t be on waivers in any competitive league.

Dave Bush - To paraphrase Lupe Fiasco — Kick, Bush. Kick, Bush. He was sent to the minors to make room for Krispie Young Sr. The Brewers make smart personnel decisions.

Manny Parra - After yesterday’s start (and the last three starts), I could’ve understood him getting the demotion, but I’m glad he didn’t. Meanwhile, he doesn’t look right with very little command of his pitches.

Paul Konerko - As I mentioned the other day, he was dropped in one of my ‘pert leagues last week. Yesterday he hit two home runs. See, we all make mistakes. I still see 35 home runs from Paulie.

Carlos Delgado - Also hit two home runs on Sunday. I’d still leave him for dead. Or trade him.

Gary Sheffield - He just doesn’t look right and the longer you hold onto him the less you’ll ever get for him. At this point, he may be nothing but a throw-in player in a deal.

Brandon Phillips - Hit two runs, as well. I’m still selling.

Justin Verlander - Last year was supposed to be the year after he logged too many innings and got roughed up. Maybe it’s coming a year later? Just like you had to wait out CC, you can’t trade Verlander where is value is at right now.

Edinson Volquez - aka Edison aka Julio Reyes was unhittable against the Ain’ts because either his stuff was filthy or he was extremely wild. Know what, still got the job done. For those savvy owners out there, I’d field offers for Edinson to see what kind of offensive player you could get.

Alexis Rios - Still not regretting having him on four teams.

Troy Glaus - Hit his first home run of the season. As I said a few days ago, everything is telling me no, but Glaus looks fine. Not saying he’s going to hit 40 home runs with a .290 average, but if you can handle .250 for 30 home runs, I think he could get there.

John Lannan - As the French say, he’s a poseur. (The French might not say that, but whatever. Ain’t like you’re quoting me when you’re out on the town with your lady friend.) I don’t buy his starts at all. Play him if you want, but unless he sold his soul to the devil in the offseason, he can’t keep up this numbers.

James Shields - Loved him coming into the year, even going as far as ranking him in my top twenty pitchers overall. Through six starts he has a 2.34 and I’m still buying.

C.C. Sabathia - Of course he’s okay. And so is Big Papi and so is Robinson Cano and so Ryan Howard and so is Prince Fielder and so is any major league starter who is slumping that has proven he’s better than how he is performing right now. As exciting it would be for a proven vet to completely tank (and CC is more or less a tank), it’s not going to happen.

Moises Alou - He might consider peeing on his ankle. He’s going for an MRI, possibly a slight fracture of the ankle.

Jimmy Rollins - Seems his broken ankle was more hyperbole from the world wide web than actual truth. He took batting practice on Saturday.

Jayson Nix - Was sent down. Cut him in all leagues. He won’t be back for a while, if ever.

Blake DeWitt - Nomar’s on the DL. In other news, water is wet.

In today’s daily notes, I’ll look at how badly Pedro Martinez’s struggles were against the Marlins up until the injury and everything else I saw in today’s major league games:

Dan Uggla, Luis Gonzalez took Pedro Martinez deep. Beltran took an awful route to a ball for a Hanley triple to score an AA chip. In another at-bat, he made Uggla seem discriminating. Gary Cohen put it best, “Best thing Pedro did tonight was his at-bat.” But against VandenHurk, it’s a very small consolation. I’m not pleased. He should’ve dominated this team. There were lots of meatballs thrown by Pedro. He didn’t look in command of anything. He can no longer overpower people and… He left with an injury. Looked like a hamstring or a groin tweak. Didn’t look serious, but at his age, it could be. Word from Pedro, he heard a pop. That’s never a good thing. Or as Willie said, ” That’s not always good, but we’ll let it calm down and get an MRI.” Is there a time it is good? Jorge Sosa gets his next start for NL-only leagues, everyone else needs to wait and see. To be continued.

Must look at Angel Pagan in NL-only leagues. He’s no more than a reserve at this point. He’s got good speed, but nothing more than a fill-in for the Mets and probably shouldn’t be much more for you.

Posada hit into a double play to the right side of the infield. This will be a recurring theme.

Melky could put 5/5 numbers and his defense will keep him in the lineup. Fortunately, he will not put up those numbers. He will be a lot better. There was some comment chatter on this post about who will be better between Butler, McLouth, Ethier, Milledge and Gutierrez. Rudy added Melky into that group. Makes sense. I like them Butler, Gutierrez, Melky, Milledge, McLouth then Ethier. But Ethier placing last is a testament to the other guys and not that huge of a knock on Ethier. This group will be watched all year.

Both Halladay and Wang looked good, except no Ks. Probably the most boringest matchup that could take place. Was like watching paint dry. Paint that doesn’t strike anyone out. Really farkin’ boring paint. Oh, wait, there was something more boring-er.

The Cardinals hitting. Skip Schumaker? Cesar Izturis? Kyle Lohse batting 8th? Larussa has outdone himself this year.

I hate Kip Wells. How could he pitch so well and not so… er, Wells? Did he really strikeout Pujols?

Joba v. Rios — Rios BB. Joba’s the most exciting reliever since steroid-ed Gagne. Rios would’ve been a consensus 2nd round pick, if he played for the Yanks or Mets and not just on my list. People need to see him play.

Matt Kemp was out of the lineup in favor of Juan Pierre. The Pierre Situation is quickly becoming a nightmare that could ripple into the entire outfield, not just Andre Ethier. I’d much rather see Kemp than Ethier out there. Frankly, I’d prefer to see Andruw Jones sit.

If you’re looking to handcuff Jose Valverde, Doug Brocail has been declared the primary setup man, not Oscar Villarreal.

As much as Rich Aurilla should retire, the Giants should not be playing him.

Scott Hairston went deep and Bourn stole another base (but it was against Bard and Young, so dur, of course). Hairston’s someone who never got a fair shot in Arizona, but he’s got a good eye, posting over a .400 OBP in the minors.

(NOTE FROM GREY: Last week I sent out feelers to the top baseball team blogs to see if they would be generous enough to write a quick preview for their favorite team. So over the course of the next two weeks, mixed in with your daily fantasy info, you will get some of the most astute, in-depth coverage of teams around the major leagues for the upcoming 2008 season from the people that know these teams best. Each post will include a link to their site, please take time to visit these bloggers’ sites, because these posts are truly the tip of the iceberg for their team knowledge. Now enjoy the 2008 New York Yankees preview.)

The 2008 Yankees greatly resemble the team from the second half of 2007—a team which had a better winning percentage post all-star break than that of 1998—with the exception of a couple additions to the bullpen and a new manager.

The Yankees will likely compete with the Tigers for the best offense in the American League, but their starting pitching is heavily dependent on young pitchers that have a lot of expectations on their shoulders.  They have no proven ace yet, but many think Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain could eventually fill this roll.  However, Joba will be starting the season in the bullpen, which is both a testament to his excellence out of the pen and the uncertainties the Yankees have in that area.

If they stay healthy, and everyone on the Yankees, especially the young talent, plays up to their full potential, the Yankees could be the team to beat, but that’s assuming a lot works out, and without considering the growing pains they’re likely to experience, especially with Joe Girardi in his first year as Yankees’ manager.

For the Fantasy Buffs:

Likely Opening Day Line-Up:

1. Johnny Damon, LF:  Much better in left than center or DH.  Solid lead off guy, when he’s healthy.  Good speed.  Doesn’t hit much for power.

2. Derek Jeter, SS:  Clutch athlete, but not likely to do a whole lot for your fantasy team outside of hits.   Doesn’t hit for power.  Smart baserunner.  Declining fielder.

3. Bobby Abreu, RF:  Underrated, slow start last year due to injury.  Will get you 100 RBI, with some power.  Strong arm, but not the best outfielder.  Not a bad addition to your line-up.

4. Alex Rodriguez, 3B:  MUST HAVE.  Lead the league in Home Runs and RBI last year, and while he might not equal the numbers, he’s likely a lock to hit at least 40 HR and 100 RBI.  Underrated fielder.  Stays healthy.  Should go #1 or 2 for non-pitchers in your draft.

5. Jorge Posada, C:  Coming off of career year.  Unlikely to repeat his .330, 20 HR season, but he’ll give you some solid hits and good defense behind the plate.  Switch hitter.  36 years old.  Mauer is likely a better fantasy pick for catcher, but Jorge is invaluable for the Yankees.

6. Jason Giambi, DH:  Missed much time last year with a foot injury.  Better player the more he plays.  Not the Giambi of Oakland As.

7. Shelley Duncan 1B:  Sleeper pick.  Wasn’t supposed to hit as well on Major League level as he has and he has shown a good eye.  Will likely be in a 1B platoon, still learning the position.

8. Robinson Canò, 2B:  One of the best 2B in the league.  Hits for average and power.  Good fielder that can look sloppy at times.  Slow on the basepath and doesn’t make good baseruning decisions.

9. Melky Cabrera, CF:  Solid CF. Doesn’t hit for power, but a good hitter for the nine spot.  Doesn’t hit for average, but can bunt and sac RBI.  Great arm but takes bad routes to the ball on occasion.  Switch hitter.

Rotation:

Chien Ming Wang:  Will find ways to wind games, sinker ball pitcher, but high ERA and WHIP.  Not a good addition for a fantasy team, though he is working on improving his strikeout totals.

Andy Pettitte:  Solid left hander.  If he’s healthy, he’s an excellent, dependable addition, but he’s been known to have elbow issues.  Press is likely to attempt to make HGH issue a distraction.

Mike Mussina:  Coming off a bad year and horrible August.  Can’t make any mistakes or gets hammered.  Probably the weakest link in the Yankees’ rotation.

Phil Hughes:  Prized ‘rookie’, who’s not technically a rookie any more.  Excellent make-up, and projected to put up big numbers.  However, he’s young and untested over the full course of the season.  Under innings cap and potential injury concern.

Ian Kennedy:  Sleeper Pick.  Of the Yankees’ “big three” he is supposed to be the most polished.  Location pitcher.  Untested.

Bullpen:

Mariano Rivera:  One of the game’s best closers.  Elite.  Usually has a poor April, but will be an excellent strikeout pitcher.

Kyle Farnsworth:  Inconsistent.  Overpowering fastball, but poor location.

LaTroy Hawkins:  New addition.  Low risk, high-reward type signing.

Joba Chamberlain:  Had a 0.38 ERA last year out of the bullpen, giving up one home run to Mike Lowell.  Great for strikeout totals.  Loses effectiveness in second inning of work.

Bench:

Wilson Betemit:  Can play all infield positions, but a weak hitter.  Has some power from the left, but none from the right.

Hideki Matsui:  Left fielder, coming off of a bad knee injury.  Might start season on the DL.  Okay fielder, good hitting addition if he gets regular playing time.

Jose Molina:  Excellent back up catcher.  Great defensively and good enough with the bat.  Doesn’t hit for a ton of power but will get doubles.  Too slow for triples.

Morgan Ensberg:  Sleeper pick.  Had All Star numbers before injuring his shoulder.  If he fully recovers, he could be an excellent addition.

Rebecca

If readers are interested, then you can find Rebecca’s blog at Purist Bleeds Pinstripes.