Fantasy Baseball Advice

BABIP is Batting Average on Balls In Play.  And they sometimes lie, even if Shakira sang, BABIPs Don’t Lie.  BABIP is a quick way to know how much luck a hitter is having.  There’s more to it, but for the purposes of this, a high BABIP for a hitter and it means the hitter could hit a bloop single just over the pitcher’s head with the infield drawn in.  Below .200 and the hitter could hit a line drive into the Grand Canyon and it would get caught by Alice on the back of a mule.  Then there’s HR/FB%, which is a quick way to know if a hitter is hitting more home runs than what makes sense for that player’s amount of fly balls.  Then there’s LD%, which is the percentage of hits that are line drives.  Line drives are usually a sign of solid contact aka a player is hitting the ball hard.  Finally, K% or the percentage a hitter Ks.  So why all the fancy acronyms?  Is it just gas for your inevitable brain fart?  Nah, we’re going to see if there’s any hitters out there that are being sucky because they’re unlucky or unsucky because they’re lucky.  Anyway, here’s some hitters that have been lucky or unlucky so far for fantasy baseball:

Jorge Posada – His line drive rate is off the charts terrible-slash-everything he hits is a fly ball.  So the BABIP of .081 is egregiously low, it might only get up to .220.  Meaning Posada’s average will come up but it’s not going above .240.

Chone Figgins – His line drive rate isn’t off the charts terrible, he’s hitting a few too many fly balls and his walk rate is similar to a 95-year-old.  Yet!  His BABIP is way too low.  He’s going to get much better.  Say a hundred points better in average.

Brett Gardner – Last year’s BABIP was .340.  In 2009, it was .311.  This year it’s .179.  He’s scuffling badly with strikeouts and lack of walks, but he can’t possibly get worse.

Carl Crawford – His fly ball rate, line drive rate, K-rate and walk rate are near his career averages.  His career BABIP is .329.  Right now, it’s .194.  That’s silly low.  He’s a .300 hitter temporarily hitting .170.

Russell Martin – His HR/FB% right now is 35%.  His career rate is below 10%.  He’s playing just a tad over his head.

Lance Berkman – His HR/FB% is 30%, which is way above his career rate, his fly ball rate is actually lower than his career rate, his infield hit percentage is almost four times higher than his career rate, his BABIP is sixty points above his career rate… I think you get the picture.  At some point, the bottom will fall out hard.

Ian Kinsler – His line drive rate is fine, his ground ball rate is fine, his BUPKIS percentage is in line with his career rates, his BABIP is way too low and there is no BUPKIS percentage.  If Kinsler stays healthy, he’s going to be absolutely fine.

I call this, “Highlights of Grey and Rudy Panicking Over a Blown Win for Danks,” which is also a Jewel poem title.  Chris Sale entered in the ninth, recorded no outs, gave up three hits and three runs.  That, sir, is a ‘Fire Sale.’  Then Ozzie brought in Crain, who has a great leg kick.  He’s not the best around… Pitched wild, didn’t look good in general then was lifted so Ozzie could avoid Crain vs. Sweeney, which sounds like a Tim Burton film, and brought in Matt Thornton.  Bringing in a struggling Thornton with the bases loaded in a 4-2 game is like helping someone with impotence problems by filming them have sex.  In the end, Rudy and I lost our Danks win.  Is all that clear?  Yeah, I don’t know either.  I’d hold Thornton and Sale, in that order.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Juan Pierre – 3-for-4 with a run, but would be most valuable in leagues that count brain farts.  He was picked off twice and made his 3rd error of the year.  You’d expect better judgement from someone named after two apostles.

Hideki Matsui – 2-for-4 with his 2nd homer.  Now he can reward himself with his epic porn collection.

Jay Bruce – Tweaked his groin.  Hey, sounds like Matsui!  Reds say Bruce should return by the weekend.  Matsui would tell you through a translator that’s prime groin tweaking time.

Jose Valverde – Recorded his 2nd win in two days.  In one of our leagues, we only have one win for the entire team after two weeks.  I must’ve killed puppies in a former life for my Win Karma.

Max Scherzer – 6 IP, 2 ER, 8 baserunners, 7 Ks.  After the game, Max reentered Michael Chabon’s latest book about the search for Golem.

Lance Berkman – 1-for-3, 5 RBIs and his fourth homer in three games.  Sure, it’ll end but there’s no reason why you can’t be there while it’s happening.

Jorge Posada – Now has 4 homers in the first two weeks.  The same number of homers as A-Rod.  Guys and three girl readers, why do you keep asking me if you should drop him?  If he gets 4 homers a month (24 homers on the year), what else do you want?  Why is it so hard to not pick at your catcher scab?  You’re gonna leave a scar.

David Murphy – 1-for-4 with 2 steals.  As I said yesterday, you should pick him up.  Wait, is there an echo in here?

Francisco Liriano – 5 IP, 7 ER, 9 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Time for our first installment of Point/Counterpoint.  Rudy says, “He’s #3 risky pitcher of 2011 and is pitching like he’s trying to prove me correct.  He’s now 0-3 with a 9.42 ERA and hasn’t pitched more than 5 innings per start.  On the plus side, he only walked one in this game after walking 8 in his first 9 1/3 IP.”  Grey says, “He had a terrible fourth inning with a bunch of junky singles.  He only threw 78 pitches (53 strikes) into the 6th inning and the last run was given up by Glen Perkins, the pancake king.  I’d roll the dice for his next start vs. the O’s, then reevaluate.”

Denard Span – 4-for-5, 2 Runs.  A leadoff man who gets 4 singles and doesn’t steal a base is in a nutshell why I don’t like Denard Dawg.

Drew Storen – Riggleman said Storen will continue to share save chances with Sean Burnett.  Don’t you need to give Storen save chances before he can share them?

Matt Wieters – 2-for-3, 2 RBIs and his first homer.   Matt Wieters Fact:  The only person that can get Matt Wieters out is himself.

Tim Stauffer – 4 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 8 baserunners, 4 Ks.  I had Wood (not like that) and Stauffer going in many leagues yesterday.  Wood looked great, should be owned everywhere.  Stauffer is a borderline fifth starter that I’d continue to roll out there for home games for one reason alone, watching a game at Petco is what I imagine watching baseball in 1968 was like.

Orlando Hudson – 1-for-4, and his 5th steal.  He’s the Padres hitting star.  I.e. the world’s tallest midget.

Aroldis Chapman – 1/3 IP, 1 ER, which usually would be nothing but he was only throwing 92 MPH… Which Usually Would Be Nothing, Part II:  The Return of Which Usually Would Be Nothing, that’s nowhere near his top velocity.  Dusty might’ve figured out a way to injure Aroldis while not even throwing him that much.  It’s an (anti-)medical breakthrough!

Josh Johnson – 7 1/3 IP, 4 baserunners (1 Hit), 9 Ks.  To celebrate, his brother, Gosh Johnson, sprayed his co-workers with champagne.  At least, everyone hopes it was champagne.

Logan Morrison – Hit his third homer and is batting .317 on the year.  I don’t know, sounds okay to me.

Vernon Wells – 1-for-5 and now batting .102, which is also the temperature under the collars of his fantasy owners.

Ian Kennedy – 3 IP, 9 ER.  Ouch… Wait, what?  Oh, ouch.

Carlos Carrasco – 7 IP, 3 ER, 7 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Now has back-to-back solid starts, though one was against the M’s in Safeco.  Have to be in an AL-Only league to get excited about him or any Indians starter.  BTW, Carmona ‘n Carrasco sounds like an upscale Mexican restaurant.  “Forget your pinatas, hit us!”  That’s their slogan.

Wandy Rodriguez – 5 IP, 5 ER, 11 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Obviously wasn’t a great start, but the five runs came with two outs in the 1st.  If he gets that third out there, Wandy would’ve been fine.  (And if if’s and but’s were prunes and nuts, we’d all have to wear diapers.)

Jon Niese – 6 IP, 5 ER, 10 baserunners, 5 Ks.  I hate to move on in only the second week of April, but I’ve had it with Niese and his rock n’ jock aerobics.

Justin Smoak – Hit his first homer.  He’s not in the greatest home park/lineup for production, but at some point his OBP and power are going to make me look brilliant for liking him even if it was a year or two early.  BTW,  the Mariners lineup yesterday — Ichiro, Adam Kennedy, Milton Bradley, Jack Cust, Smoak, Ryan Langerhans, Luis Rodriguez, Brendan Ryan and Chris Gimenez.  That’s murderer’s row.  As in, I’d murder the GM if I were an M’s fan.

Chris Narveson, his name makes me think of the insurance guy from Groundhog Day.  Am I right or am I right-right?  His name also would sound good recited by Chris Cornell.  Chris Narveson, won’t you come and wash away the rain?  Won’t you come.  Won’t you come.  Narveson was in my top 80 starters.  Let’s see what I said there, “Hmm… I don’t remember and I’m too lazy to click on the link to the actual blurb.  No one actually reads stuff I quote from myself so I’m gonna pretend I just explained Narveson to a T.”  And that’s me quoting me!  Yesterday, he had the line of 6 IP, 0 ER, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks.  He’s also 29 years old, so I’d preach a bit of caution.  He’s good for Ks (7+ K/9), dangerous on walks and around a 4.00 ERA starter in the NL.  So that’s good, meh, serviceable.  In any league deeper than 12 team, he should be owned.  In 12 team leagues, I’d take the flyer where I had room.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Rickie Weeks – 2-for-4 with his 3rd homer in 4 games.  On one hand, I’d sell him.  On the other hand, who are you selling him for?  On my third lesser known hand, I’m wearing a puppet while talking out of the corner of my mouth.

Brandon Beachy – 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 7 Ks.  It’s full steam ahead.  I.e., pick him up, snitches!

Craig Kimbrel – 1 IP, 3 Ks and the save.  Rawr!  That is all.

Rick Porcello – 5 IP, 5 ER.  Porcello dropped a mushroom cloud.  I own Porcello in my Fantasy Razzball league.  You know, the league where you want the worst players.  That’s what I think of him.  I do hear Porcello is a fungi!

Miguel Cabrera – 0-for-4, played yesterday but he was throwing up during the game.  Liquor before beer, man.  C’mon!

Will Rhymes – 2-for-3, and his first major league steal.  He can steal 25 of them if he plays in 130+ games.  SAGNOF!  And he appreciates the finer things in life.

Andrew McCutchen – 1-for-4 with his 2nd homer as The Dread Pirate returned to the lineup.  This season is when McCutchen goes 20/40 and becomes a top outfielder.

Neil Walker – 3-for-4, 2 RBIs and hitting .412.  For what it’s Wuertz, Walker is the player who ended up on the most teams owned by Rudy and me.

Joel Hanrahan – Member when you wouldn’t draft him last week because he wasn’t good in Spring Training?  Yeah, Hanrahanananananan has 3 saves and a zero ERA.

Charlie Morton – 6 IP, 1 ER, 8 baserunners, 2 Ks.  He was in last week’s Buy and I do like him, but he also gave up 5 walks in this game.  Wildly effective can quickly become “Holy eff in the effhole what is Morton doing to my ratios?”

Alfonso Soriano – 2-for-3 with his 2nd homer in two days.  Guys and three girl readers, he’s been hitting well in April for a few years now.  Don’t act too school for cool about picking him up.

Randy Wells – 6 IP, 1 ER, 10 baserunners, 6 Ks.  I actually liked him last year and he abused my trust pretty badly, but there’s a heart under this rugged, mustachioed exterior that has learned how to forgive.  I’d give Wells a chance in 14+ team leagues, but his WHIP tends to be high even though he doesn’t walk a whole lot of hitters.

Willie Bloomquist – Is Stephen Drew getting Pipp’d out?  1 HR and 3 SB already for Bloomquist.  Definitely unexpected from the Arizona bench in which the only thing supreme about it is it sounds like the Supreme Court (Bloomquist, Roberts — can they trade for Clete Thomas, Adam Kennedy or Jon Jay?).  This is probably self-evident but don’t touch Bloomquist unless you’re using a 12-team NL pole.

Milton Bradley – 3-for-4 and hitting third.  Sure, playing with Milton Bradley is unsafe for ages 12 and over, but batting third adds fantasy value.

Erik Bedard – 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 baserunners, 3 Ks.  Best thing I can say about this start is he walked away without injury.

Nelson Cruz – 2-for-3 and his 4th homer.  He’s going 40/20 if he can stay healthy, but that if has its own postal code.

Elvis Andrus – 1-for-4 and Elvis left the building for the first time since Michael Jackson died.  Yo, legends mourn legends.  If Andrus goes 10/40 this year, you’re gonna appreciate me ranking him about fifty spots before all other ‘perts.  Yeah, I love the Rangers offense.  Deal with it.

Derek Holland – 6 IP, 3 ER, 8 baserunners, 5 Ks.  What I don’t love is Ranger pitchers (except Neftali — I ain’t mad at cha!).  Holland’s a decent enough flyer in deep leagues, but I’d be careful.

Jorge Posada – 1-for-3 with his third homer.  Posada’s agent, “I told you the DH was a good move!”

Ivan Nova – 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 baserunners, 3 Ks.  Whatevs, I wouldn’t touch him.

Jake Arrieta – 6 IP, 1 ER, 8 baserunners, 3 Ks.  For now, I wouldn’t touch Arrieta outside of AL-Only leagues and, even there, I probably wouldn’t own him.  In 100 1/3 IP last year, he had a 4.66 K/9.  That was 11th worst in the league.  It can get better, but I’d prefer to see it happen before I go near him.

Jeremy Guthrie – Has pneumonia.  The p is silent as in pwhatever.

Ryan Theriot – 1-for-5 with his first steal.  Has made 2 errors this season and scouts aren’t enamored with his defense.  I never thought I’d say this but Brendan Ryan had a lot of fantasy baseball value last season.  For STL pitchers that is.  Carpenter, Garcia, and Westbrook are all ground ball pitchers.  Downgrading on SS defense would seemingly be the last thing you’d want to do.  Oh well, at least us fantasy baseballers get to enjoy Theriot’s mediocre offense.

Matt Holliday – He’s saying that he doesn’t need a DL trip and can return in a week.  He’s kinda sexy and I kinda love him.  Get well soon, Mr. Holliday!  That’s me filling out the card for the edible arrangement I’m sending him.  Don’t judge!

Evan Longoria is out 3 weeks with an oblique injury.  He’s not to pick up a bat, ball or AK-47.  Looks like the oblique is still the number one injury that no one has any clue about.  Intercostal injury twirls its Snidely Whiplash mustache and plots its revenge.  For those who lost Holliday and Longoria this weekend, I’m pouring some Mad Dog out for you.  BTW, I was just thinking something… CAN WE FIGURE OUT WHAT THE DEAL IS WITH THE OBLIQUE AND HOW TO PREVENT THESE INJURIES?  Seriously, modern medicine step up your game!  There’s gotta be something that we can do.  Have we tried to apply dolphin tears to the sore area?  If I were on Celebrity Apprentice, I’d be playing for a cure for oblique injuries.  This injury should guarantee everyday ABs for Sean Rodriguez.  Great, that eases my pain.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:

Matt Holliday – Out up to a month for an appendectomy?  Isn’t this an outpatient procedure?  My friend in high school had out his appendix then funneled a forty of Old E to ease the soreness.  Granted, he was mental and is now in prison, but c’mon… Buck up, players!  I own some of you in fantasy.  Having a similar procedure last year, Andres Torres returned after 11 days.  Corey Hart took 4 weeks, but he’s Amish.  I think Holliday will be out 3 weeks.  It’s too early in the season for them to rush him back.  The Federalist, Jon Jay should see most of the time in his stead.  Allen Craig will see the occasional ABs though, so in most leagues I wouldn’t add either.

Mike Minor – He’s back.  But it may not be for long.  Jar-Jar is set to make a rehab start on April 11th then potentially return after that.  So you’re looking at two maybe more starts from Minor.  I’d add him in all leagues, but I wouldn’t drop anyone worthwhile yet.  Because I’m psychic, I’ll answer your question right now.  Beachy over Minor for now.

Jaime Garcia – 9 IP, 0 ER, 6 baserunners, 9 Ks.  Murray Chass — 1.  “Newfangled stats” that said Garcia would regress — 0.

Dustin Moseley – 7 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 2 Ks.  How about the gutsy performances the Hodgepadres gave this weekend away from home?  Sheer force-itude!    Wait a second, I’m now looking at the Cards lineup.  Hmm… They may as well bat the pitcher fourth.

Matt Garza – 7 IP, 3 ER, 12 baserunners, 12 Ks.  It’s an extravaGarza!  That’s a real nice sign even vs. the Pirates since their hitting isn’t its usual crizzap self.

Alfonso Soriano – 1-for-4 with a homer.  He was in the post about hitters who do well in April.  I’d give him the month to see if it holds.

Mike Napoli – Hit his 2nd homer.  Not much of a limb here, but he could hit 30 homers.

Nelson Cruz – 1-for-4 with his 3rd homer.  Kinsler also hit his third homer in yesterday’s game.  Over IM, Rudy said something like, “If Cruz, Hamilton and Kinsler were to play 155+ games, they’d all be MVP candidates.”  And that’s me paraphrasing Rudy!

Fernando Rodney – He’s hot garbage.  No.  He’s cold garbage that you take out of the trash can, put in the microwave and serve in a dirty ashtray.  The bullpen is in tatters.  Shattered.  I grabbed Takahashi in a few leagues because the Sciosciapath may see that he has closing experience and get the giggles.  Though I would grab Walden first, then Jepsen; they were, unfortunately, gone in my leagues.

Bobby Abreu – 4-for-4, homer.  Another guy that was in the best April hitters post.  Cust kayin’.

Howie Kendrick – 2 homers yesterday, 3 in four games.  I liked Kendrick coming into this year, and now I’m check raising to the bettor that he has a solid season.

Alex Gordon – 4-for-6, 4 runs, 1 RBI and batted third.  Cool, do it for another five straight months and all will be forgiven for the three years of anguish you put me through.

Ryan Hanigan – 4-for-4, 2 homers.  You ever wanna wonder if everyone in the world has a doppelganger but because there’s so many people you’ll never meet them?  Like somewhere there’s a Brian Hanigan who looks and acts exactly like Ryan Hanigan, but, instead of catching in the Major Leagues, Brian Hanigan lives in Fiji and catches coconuts when they fall from palm trees.  Yeah, maybe it’s me.  Hanigan could push Ramon Hernandez into a backup role rather than the timeshare they’re in.  But, as of right now, Hanigan might be tough to own in one catcher mixed leagues.

Jose Bautista – 2-for-4 with his 2nd homer.  2010 called, they want your insane year back.  I still believe Bautista won’t come close to last year.  If he has twenty homers by the All-Star Break, then I’ll send out my mea culpas and buy everyone a Frosty from Wendy’s.*  *Offer not good in the 48 contiguous states, Canada or anywhere else.

Joe Nathan – Got the save but gave up an earned run.  I’d continue to hold Capps.

Miguel Cabrera – 3-for-5, 4 RBIs, 2 homers, and one late Saturday night with Charlie Sheen.

Brennan Boesch – 4-for-4, 4 RBIs, 1 homer and was hitting third because the unreliable-to-stay-healthy Maggs was out.  It’s a situation worth monitoring.  Or not.  Your choice.

Max Scherzer – 5 IP, 6 ER, 11 baserunners, 6 Ks but the Win.  There should be a glossary term for when your pitcher does awful but because you get the win, you’re sorta okay with it.  Please make suggestions in the comments.

Phil Hughes – 4 IP, 5 ER, 7 baserunners, 1 K and the Yanks pitching coach is concerned about his loss in velocity.  I wanted nothing to do with Hughes this year.  I.e., if you Hughes, you lose.

Jorge Posada – 2 homers.  Hip Hop Jorge!

Justin Masterson – 7 IP, 1 ER, 9 baserunners, 0 Ks.  Note to Self:  If Masterson has two more quality starts, start touting him as a pickup.  Note to Self, II:  You know as soon as you tout him he’s gonna kick you in the nads.  Note to Self, III:  There’s no Note to Self, III.

Carl Crawford – Dropped to 7th in the lineup.  Wow, Francona is like one of those crazy fantasy managers that drops their fifth round pick because they went 0-for-5.  Not naming any names.  Though there’s a few of you that might qualify.

Carlos Gomez – 1 for his last 8 with three Ks.  He was in Friday’s Buy/Sell, but he could also be on the bench by April 15th.

Brian Matusz – Going to the DL with a strained intercostal muscle.  Watch out oblique!  I’m gaining on you!  He’s a marginal 10/12-team mixed league starter at this point (mainly because of AL East and his crappy team) so you can drop him if you don’t have an open DL spot.

Zach Britton – 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 6 Ks.  First Brandon Belt, now Britton.  It’s hard to believe in Oriole SP prospects for mixed league play after the mixed results of Matusz (and Tillman and Arrieta and the Razztastic, Brad Bergesen).  Britton doesn’t project as well as Matusz, but he induces a lot of ground balls which should limit his downside.  And while his K-rate isn’t stellar, it’s not Buehrle-bad (7.60 per 9 IP in AAA).  For now, Britton’s a viable match-up candidate (I’d like to say great for the pun) assuming he’s not going against the AL East, Texas, or at Chicago.

Kyle Drabek – KD left us with a constant craving for more – giving up only one hit and 3 walks with 7 K’s in 7 innings.  I haven’t seen Twins abused that bad since this one porn…. Drabek’s a must-own in deep leagues but still pretty marginal for 10-12 team leagues.

J.P. Arencibia – 2 HRs and a triple on Friday.  Thatsa one spicy hitting line!  From now on, he will be known as Napolito.

Travis Wood – 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 baserunners, 7 Ks.  May not have made this known as much as I should’ve, but I absolutely love Wood.  Okay, that sounded wrong.  I’d definitely grab Wood.  Okay, still wrong.

R.A. Dickey – 6 IP, 0 ER, 8 baserunners, 7 Ks.  I don’t like Dickey.  Hmm, this has devolved, hasn’t it?

Jordan Zimmermann – 6 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 2 Ks, though when I saw the score was 11-2 I did have a bit of Ticker Shock.

Mike Morse – 1 for his first 9.  The retractable leash is stopped and soon I’m gonna start pulling him in.

Brian Wilson – Ready to return from his oblique injury.  Because of the mysterious Yin-Yang nature of the oblique, I blame Wilson’s good health for Longoria’s injury.

Ubaldo Jimenez – Might miss his next start because he switched manicurists and his cuticle was cut.  His plan is to try and heal his finger by soaking it in pickle juice, which sounds like a cure out of My Big Fat Greek Wedding or a Judy Blume book.

Bud Norris – 4 IP, 5 ER, 6 baserunners, 7 Ks.  Not great.  We’re in agreement on that point, but four came in the first (three were a homer by Howard), then he settled down.

Brett Wallace – 0-for-3, batting .091 so far.  His uncle George Wallace is not smiling in a blue suit at Brett’s performance so far.

Mike Stanton – Has a strain in one of his pony sticks, but he should be back in a few days.

Javier Vazquez – 2 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 11 baserunners.  Hey, at least he didn’t run over my dog.  I have very little patience with this schmohawk.  I’m not dropping him in my leagues yet, but I’m making contingency plans.  If I’m using the word contingency correctly.

Donnie Murphy – Will miss a day or two after being hit on the wrist.  Must’ve been Murph’s past coming back.  “I did some bad things, Fredi.”  That’s from Ben Affleck’s new movie where a Boston ex-con becomes a major leaguer but can’t escape his past.  “Hey, Sully, what the fick is a Mahlin?”  Starring Ben Affleck as Donnie Murphy!  And Casey Affleck as Chris Coghlan!  Ben Affleck, “Hey, Matty, how about you and me in a movie for old time’s sake?”  “Ask Renner.”  “You can use your Boston accent.”  “Ask Robin.”  “What, cause I’m not Martin Friggin’ Scorcese?  Where was Mahtin when you got in a fight in high school with Big Fitzy?”

Went over the top 20 for 2011 fantasy baseball and top 10 for 2011 fantasy baseball.  Now, friends, it’s time for the top 20 catchers for 2011 fantasy baseball.  The top 20 catchers are the glass of warm milk right before you go to sleep.  Hey, I just drafted Jorge Posada!  Snooze.  I love Kurt Suzuki this year!  Yawn.  I don’t draft top catchers in one catcher leagues.  Because I ignore the top catchers doesn’t mean I’m starting the top 20 catcher list at number twenty-one (Chris Snyder?  Belch.); some of you might want to know the top catchers.  You can lead a horse to water, but you can’t make them draft Napoli.  In two catcher leagues, catchers are a little more valuable, but I’d still prefer to avoid them.  You can see other top 20 lists for 2011 fantasy baseball under 2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings.  Listed along with these catchers are my 2011 projections for each player and where the tiers begin and end.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 catchers for 2011 fantasy baseball:

1. Brian McCann – This is the first tier.  This tier goes from here until Posey.  This tier is called, “I’ll draft any of these guys if they’re still on the board four to six rounds after their Average Draft Position.”  I ended up putting McCann above Mauer in these rankings for a simple reason.  I want 20+ home runs way more than I want a .320+ average.  If McCann gets his stupid eyes figured out and hits like he should for a 27-year-old, this will be his season.  I know Posey is way more exciting than McCann, but unless you’re dating Posey’s sister, exciting isn’t going to get you laid in fantasy baseball.  2011 Projections:  80/25/95/.280/3

2. Joe Mauer – It’s amazing to me how fickle fantasy baseball ‘perts are.  Read recently a ‘pert talking about how Mauer will never hit 20 home runs again.  These are, of course, the same people that swore his 28 homers in 2009 was the real deal.  Can’t anyone separate what someone did the previous year compared to what they will do.  I don’t think he will hit 28 home runs either, but I didn’t think he’d do it 2010 and thought it was fluky as shizz in 2009 when he actually did it.  Search the site if you’re new to Razzball.  It’s all there.  Mauer is a 14-17 home run hitter with a great average.  If he gets lucky, he hits 20 homers.  If he’s unlucky, he hits 9 homers like last year.  It’s not brain surgery.  And it is a’ight, but I won’t own him because of where he’s drafted.  2011 Projections:  90/15/90/.325/3

3. Victor Martinez – I already went over my Victor Martinez fantasy when I took a scalpel to his Tigers signing.  If you click that link, it’ll transport you to a whole new post.  It’s magic!  2011 Projections:  70/18/85/.300

4. Buster Posey – I suppose he could be the best catcher for 2011, but what about Mike Napoli?  I mean, Mike Napoli’s mom is showing you nips and you still got no love for him?  You don’t like MILF nips?  You a prude?  Are you one of our three girl readers?  If so, then maybe I should stop now before we end up with no girl readers.  I don’t dislike Posey.  All I’m saying is Wieters looked like a surefire bet going into 2010 too.  For where you have to draft Posey, I’m not going near him.  2011 Projections:  75/18/80/.310

5. Mike Napoli – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Posada.  I call this tier, “I’ll try to grab a catcher from this tier and if it doesn’t happen then c’est la vie.”  Honestly, you probably don’t have to draft Napoli because whoever drafts him will probably drop him by mid-April.  No one wants to own Napoli.  You’re all a bunch of Sciosciapaths!  He hits 20+ home runs and steals a few bases.  That’s all you need from a catcher.  Stop trying to turn your catcher slot to eleven.  Oh, and his move to the Rangers ups his power a bit, but he’s not suddenly going to hit for .300.  2011 Projections:  65/24/75/.255/5

6. Matt Wieters – Now that Wieters’ draft position has come down to earth, I don’t mind him at all.  Could easily be the top catcher for fantasy in 2011.  That ain’t idle chatter.  He’s just needs to emerge from his nasty sophomore slump and do what he’s capable of.   He was unlucky last year and his walk rate went up while his K-rate went down.  They’re all good signs.  Here’s to him getting back on the map.  (And because no Oriole mention is complete without a Wire mention, I was pulled over the other day for talking on my phone while driving.  I know, Oprah would’ve been so disappointed.  I’m also the jackhole who usually yells at other drivers, “Hands free!” but I just got a phone call at the wrong time.  Anyway, the cop walks up to my window and I read his name tag and immediately yelled out his name, “McNulty!”  He’s like, “Do I know you?”  “No, but I watch The Wire.”  He sighs like he’s heard it a thousand times before and gives me a ticket.  Woo-hoo, I got a ticket from McNulty!)  2011 Projections:  60/18/85/.280

7. Geovany Soto – In 105 games last year, he hit 17 home runs.  Yes, he too can be the number one catcher in 2011 fantasy baseball.  Now that Piniella and his infatuation with Koyie Ugly is out of town, Soto should see all the ABs he can handle.  Tough break for The Koyie Hill Fan Club, which affectionately calls itself The Koy Pond.  2011 Projections:  60/18/75/.270

8. Miguel Montero – Unlike Napoli, Wieters or Soto, Montero doesn’t have the big power upside.  With my projected 15 home runs I’ve given him, I’m probably just about touching his ceiling.  He’ll probably get tiresome at some point in the season making you want to drop him for a hot-as-of-right-now waiver wire catcher.  If you do Ron Popeil him, he should be able to give you a solid, if unremarkable catcher season.  2011 Projections:  55/15/70/.275

9. Jorge Posada – After about ten years of ignoring Posada, I think his value has finally caught up with his draft position.  I’d like to say his BABIP was low last year, but his skills are declining.  He might not hit over .260 again without some luck.  Also, like a preacher, he has Jesus breathing down his neck.  Still, the ballpark, the lineup around him and the fact he’ll see DH ABs, makes him attractive.  2011 Projections:  50/17/70/.255

10. Carlos Santana – This is a new tier.  This tier is just Carlos Santana.  This tier I call, “I’m not owning Carlos Santana unless he falls very far in my drafts.”  Bill James has Carlos Santana down for 22 homers.  Bill James is smoking crack cocaine.  Carlos Santana might be great in 2011, but I need the ulcer to see if he’s healthy?  I have enough stress in my life.  I’m letting Carlos Santana prove his mettle on someone else’s team.  What, I’m gonna miss out on a 15-homer, .280 season from a catcher?  Big whoop, friend.  Big effin’ whoop.  2011 Projections:  55/15/65/.280

11. Kurt Suzuki – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Carlos Ruiz.  I call this tier, “I’m only listing them so you know I don’t want them on any teams.”  I stared at the screen for three minutes trying to think of something positive to say about Suzuki.  What you ended up with was me confessing to you that I had nothing positive to say about him.  That about sums it up.  2011 Projections:  60/14/70/.260/3

12. Yadier Molina – Oh.  My.  God.  Get me the hell out of this tier.  For reals.  2011 Projections:  40/7/55/.270/7

13. A.J. Pierzynski – Not only is he a terrible pick but his last name is impossible for me to spell.  Just let Tyler Flowers flourish or flounder, for suck fake. (Say that fast 117 times.)  2011 Projections:  50/12/55/.275

14. Carlos Ruiz – Carlos Ruiz makes Kurt Suzuki seem like an upside pick.  2011 Projections:  35/10/55/.265

15. Chris Iannetta – This is a new tier.  This tier goes until the end of the post.  I call this tier, “It’s late in the game and I’m taking some upside.”  You might look at the tier names and think to yourself, why doesn’t he just move Iannetta above Suzuki if he’s ignoring Kurt?  I guess I could, but I’m not taking Iannetta or any of these late names until the guys above them are already drafted.  So by listing Iannetta here you know who has to come off the board before you draft one of these late round fliers.  If you were to draft Iannetta before, say, Ruiz is off the board, I wouldn’t be mad at you, but you might be reaching.  As for Iannetta, “Meh, at least he’s got some upside.”  2011 Projections:  40/15/60/.245

16. Russell Martin – I don’t like Martin then he went to the Yankees and I was slightly more interested.  Put a big flashing sign on “slightly” to emphasize it.  In the absolute last round of a draft, I’d consider him.  There, I said it.  Are you happy you’ve embarrassed me?  2011 Projections:  70/10/60/.270/10

17. J.P. Arencibia – First, let’s see what I said when he was first called up, “In Triple-A, Arencibia hit 32 homers in 412 ABs.  That’s-a one spicy prospect!  To go all Latin America on you, there’s a caveat.  That was in the PCL, which is like playing on the moon with an aluminum bat.  He’s not quite the prospect of Wieters, Posey or Carlos Santana, pre-Kalish yelling at him, ‘Eat everything off your plate!’”  And that’s me quoting me!  Arencibia might not be a huge impact guy in 2011, but he can be.  At catcher, I like to gamble.  2011 Projections:  40/15/55/.240

18. Ryan Doumit – He never stays healthy but in some ways that doesn’t matter for a catcher.  Since everyone only owns one of them, there’s plenty of catchers on waivers for Doumit’s thrice-annual trip to the DL.  2011 Projections:  35/15/55/.250

19. John Jaso – I look at Jaso’s number and I see a poor man’s Russell Martin.  That’s not a compliment.  But Jaso is a bit more of an unknown so maybe there’s some more upside there.  That’s barely a compliment.  2011 Projections:  60/6/45/.270/6

20. Miguel Olivo – It’s kinda sad when the upside tier has Doumit, Olivo and Russell Martin.  Catchers suck.  2011 Projections:  45/15/55/.235/7

After the top 20 catchers for 2011 fantasy baseball, there’s plenty of names, but here’s three I want to point out:

Jesus Montero – If he gets an everyday job out of Spring Training, which I don’t think he will, he’ll shoot up this rankings list.  I’d move him up to 9th overall.  If he does get the everyday job, his price tag will probably be too steep for my blood though.  I also went over my Jesus Montero fantasy already.  Click that thing-a-ma-boob.  By all means, grab him in keepers if your bench is deep enough, but with the Martin addition, I don’t think we see Montero until late summer at the earliest (barring an injury).  2011 Projections:  20/5/30/.290 in 100 at-bats

John Buck – I usually like to end these top 20 posts with some exciting names, but we’re talking about catchers when I highlight John Buck.  He’s usually forgotten on draft day and he’s good for teen power.  Should you draft him at any point before the final round?  Buck that!  2011 Projections:  40/15/55/.245

Jarrod Saltalamacchia – There was a point in the not that distance past that Jarrod Saltymochachino was a touted prospect.  “Shizz happens, write him off, let’s move on, Grey.”  That’s you talking.  “He’s not quite old; he’ll be only 26 years old in 2011.  In the last round of draft, you got better things to do than to draft an upside catcher in a hitters’ park and lineup?  Yeah, I didn’t think so.”  That’s me talking.  2011 Projections:  55/16/70/.255/5 <– optimistic but whatevs