Fantasy Baseball Advice

Last year, the Buy/Sell brought you such brilliant ideas as “Grady Sizemore is gonna bounce back big time!” and “I don’t believe a concussion can knock a player out for a full year… Can I get a Morneau?!”  Buy/Sell, “You know, I don’t point all of your crappy suggestions… Vernon Wells as a sleeper?  2003 called and said it wants its sleeper back.  You’re lucky I even returned this year.  A.J. Mass was talking about buying me an acre of land in Kentucky and letting me run around with all of his stolen base draft picks.”  So, this is the first Buy/Sell of the season.  Every Friday there will be a new one.  Buy/Sell, “Not if we continue to get along like this.”  Right now Eric Thames is owned in 1.3% of ESPN leagues.  I guess I’m a one-point-three percenter because I just picked him up in one of my leagues.  Let’s see what we know for sure about Thames:  A) He’s the starting left fielder for a team that will score a lot of runs.  B) If Lind’s back continues to hurt him (I hope not, but being realistic) and Edwin Encarnacion goes back to being Encrapcion, then Thames could bat as high as cleanup.  C) There’s no C.  D) He hit 12 homers in 95 games last year.  E) He could steal 5 to 7 bases and, if he can steal 5 to 7 bases, he could steal 10 bases.  F)  See C.  G) He’s 25 years old.  H) I’m kinda stretching to get to Z, but I don’t think I’ll ever make it.  I) He had a great OBP in the minors.  J) He does strike out a lot though.  Hmm, that’s not a positive.  K-P) Power is a lot harder to find on waivers.  He’s got it.  Q) Bert.  R) I ranked Thames 57th for outfielders.  Above some schmohawks like Kubel, Revere, Span, Carlos Lee, etc.  S) Etc.  T) Etc.  U-W) Etc.  Y) Cause.  Z) Whew.  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in 2012 fantasy baseball:

BUY

Lorenzo Cain – Let’s see, Carlos Quentin is owned in 38% of ESPN leagues and Cain is owned in 28%, but only 95% of teams have drafted already, but 60% of those public ESPN teams have already abandoned their team and joined a Yahoo league instead because ESPN is a piece of crap roster managing site…  I’m sure glad ESPN made it easy to find the Transactions Log for teams.  It’s much more important to have Referenda accessible, right?  More like Reeferenda, as in what they were smoking when they designed their fantasy site.   What does this have to do with Cain…Sugar!?  Nothing really, but I’ve talked about him enough, just pick him up.

Jose Tabata – He’s only owned in 11% of leagues and that’s actually dropped in the last week.  Did I miss something about him?  Why’s he being dropped? For s’s and g’s?  In that case, drop Denard Span for s’s and g’s and pick up Tabata.

Zack Cozart – I can’t imagine who’s reading this doesn’t own Cozart, so I’m writing this for everyone who’s not reading.  Hey, gooftard, go back to ESPN!

Chris Parmelee – Supposed to be the Twins starting first baseman.  This sounds crackers to me.  Not sure how Mauer, Doumit and Morneau are all gonna see 1st base and DH time.  Could leave Doumit severely crunched for playing time.  Outside of AL-Only leagues, I wouldn’t go near Parmelee. There’s not a lot of upside (maybe 15 homers), he’s playing his home games in Hubert H. Homerfree Retrodome and Doumit/Morneau/Mauer will all steal time from him.

Josh Donaldson – The starting 3rd baseman for the Oakland A’s is… Josh Donaldson?  Colby’s brother?  Is he as bonkers as Russell’s nephew?  Yeah, Donaldson has about as much upside as a case of hemorrhoids — hey, at least I get to rub my ass with ointment!  But Donaldson has catcher eligibility.  Probably the best second catcher in a 2-catcher league you’re gonna find for under five bucks at your auction.

Jeff Samardzija – The only thing holding him back from being successful is his control. So far this spring, he has 16 Ks and one walk. Keith Law commented this is the best he’s ever seen him, then he tweeted some pompous thing about Russian literature and coq au vin.  It’s worth an add on Samardzija, but I’m not sure I’d start him his first time out.

Francisco Liriano – Seriously, kill me right now.  Ugh.  F-Liriano, indeed.  But he is owned in less than 50% leagues and when Ricky Nolasco is owned in more, that’s not copacetic.

Tommy Milone – In the same ballpark as Brandon McCarthy (literally!) and Stauffer (not!), shouldn’t be great for Ks, but could provide nice WHIP support like Jiffy Lube.

Lance Lynn – Will fill in for Carpenter in the early part of the season and put a country-western album in August, “Lance Lynn Sings:  My WHIP Drives Around No Heartaches.”

Jonathon Niese – Here’s what I said in the top 80 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball, “(Niese) had a K-rate of 7.89 last year and showed in the minors that is about right and could be even a little higher.  Also, he had a slightly off BABIP and poor LOB%, so he wasn’t really a near-four and half ERA pitcher, but probably three-quarters of a run better.  All these good vibes about Niese make me want to do my Grind workout.”  And that’s me quoting me!

Jonathan Broxton – Broxton’s got back, and saves apparently.  Yes, you should grab him.  SAGNOF!

Henry Rodriguez – Could get saves, will get Ks, could hurt your WHIP.  6 of one, half dozen of another and six of a negative.  That’s 6, which is not a prime number.  Oh, no!

Brad Lidge – Should be first to get saves in Washington.  Not to throw a bucket of cold urine on Storen owners, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Lidge gets more saves than Storen this year.

SELL

Chris Carpenter – I don’t know, I guess I wouldn’t drop him.  I guess I’d DL him if I already drafted him against my advice.  But I sure as heckfire wouldn’t draft him now, if you haven’t drafted yet.

Kendrys Morales – People are really excited about him right now.  I heard the other day he saved a kitten from a tree…By ripping said tree from the ground and gently placing it down next to the kitten’s baby mama.  It’s a moving story.  As discussed in our fantasy baseball podcast, Morales isn’t going to see enough at-bats in 12 team mixed leagues.  I wouldn’t drop Morales out right because of the previously aforementioned enthusiasm that I already mentioned aforementionedly.  I would see if I could get something for him in a trade.  Maybe a cheap Donkeycorn.

Mark Trumbo – Guys and four girl readers, where is he playing?  The Sciosciapath said he’d get 40 games at 3rd.  That’s not over the course of 40 games, that’s over the course of the season.  Where is he playing the other 120 games?  Angels playing with two DHs?

Daniel Murphy – He’s owned in 92% of ESPN leagues.  A guy with 12 homer upside?!  I feel like Matthew Modine in Short Cuts saying, “He said, ‘You want to have a go at it?’”  A guy with 12 homer upside?!  Two homers a month?!  This is Grey’s brain.  This is Grey’s brain baffled.

Drew Storen – Splash!  That was the bucket of cold urine.  A closer who can’t throw in Spring Training because of arm troubles is, um, trouble.  I wouldn’t trade Storen for an opened bag of candy corn from Halloween ’95, but I’d explore options.

Yoenis Cespedes homered in yesterday’s second day of kinda real baseball played about six hours before I wake up.  I wonder where Cespedes is being drafted now.  When Rudy and I took our giant beach balls to early March drafts and took Cespedes in a bunch of drafts, he was going cheap.  I wonder if now all those other ‘perts are suddenly stepping up because others are excited about him.  I wonder if everyone else is a Monday morning quarterback with their advice.  I wonder if Yoenis will hit 30 mistake pitch homers.  I wonder if he’ll make adjustments and hit for a decent average too.  I wonder how this would sound read by Morgan Freeman.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in spring training (and real baseball) for 2012 fantasy baseball:

Bartolo Colon – 8 IP, 1 ER, 4 baserunners, 6 Ks. I still wouldn’t go near him with a three foot churro. (Only partly because waving a three foot churro near Bartolo would be similar to going to a grizzly bear observatory wearing nothing, but bikini briefs made of Marshmallow Fluff. Talk about a Fluffernutter — oofa!)

Mike Carp – Mike Sashimi ended up on the DL after one game playing in Japan.  He should’ve never said, “Come on, pal!  Fugu me!”

Jason Vargas – 6 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 baserunners, 3 Ks.  I think Vargas is gonna have one of those seasons where you think because he’s the Mariners’ number two that he’s gonna take a number two on your stats, but he won’t.  For now, I’ll call him a Marginer with future appeal.

Jesus Montero – 1-for-3 as he started his 2nd straight game at DH.  Uh-oh.  I was hoping to see Montero start at least one of these games at catcher, but now it’s looking like he may only start when Olivo rests, which would mean once or twice a week behind the plate for Montero and mid-May for catcher eligibility.

Dustin Ackley – 0-for-4, knocking his season pace down to 81/81, but will probably come closer to 8/8, which looks like what Dorothy Hamill would put after her signature.

Justin Smoak – 1-for-4 with a homer.  Is there anything more satisfying than a home run for a guy you pick for two games before the season (actually) starts?  It was almost as satisfying to drop him right after.  It was like a one night stand where everyone has the same expectations.  (I promise you when there’s a full slate of games I won’t talk this much about the A’s and M’s.)

Jonathan Broxton – Royals are leaning towards Broxton for the closer role.  Perhaps a see-saw isn’t the fairest way to determine who should get saves.  Broxton is such a wild card at this point that you have to hold onto Holland in most leagues until he shows some level of dominance/health.

Carl Crawford – Looking at returning at the end of April.  With a wrist injury, I’d choose to March.  Valentine said he’ll only need 50 ABs in rehab, I said, “No, no, no.”

Bobby Abreu – The Los Angeles Suburb of Los Angeles Angels almost got rid of the Abreu-tross from around their DH neck last night.  He came inches from being an Indian, but now the chances of it happening have reduced to 50%.  If it happens, it’s better for both clubs.  I’m just not sure how much better it will be for Kendrys’s playing time.  Abreu wasn’t stealing much time from him anyway.  Stealing time from Kendrys is the fact that he missed 273 games in the last two years because he celebrates like a buffoon.  Angels have already said Kendrys will sit vs. lefties because of health.  Not because of the sourpuss with the big contract that they can’t get rid of.  Yeah, I used the word sourpuss.  Now get off my lawn!

Freddy Sanchez – Expected to start the year on the DL.  Welcome to the club, we expected that in October of 2010.  That’s like predicting a fart two years from now will smell.

Jeff Samardzija – Won a spot in the Cubs’ rotation.  He’ll be in the first Buy/Sell of the season later today.  You can hardly wait.  No, you.

Brian Wilson – Bochy said Wilson was never scratched on Wednesday, he wasn’t supposed to pitch.  So Brian Wilson owners can Smile.

Chris Perez – In five pitches, he threw a complete inning.  After the game, he said, “The quicker the inning, the more time for mullet grooming.”  He should be fine for Opening Day (The One Not Starting Between 3 AM and 6 AM.)

Scott Podsednik – Told reporters he’s not making the Phils’ roster with them opting for Juan Pierre.  Can’t him and Juan Pierre get into one pair of Ryan Howard’s pants and be a stealing hybrid that sounds like a French revolutionary, Robspierre.

Adam LaRoche – Returned to the Nats lineup after nursing a foot injury for, like, two weeks.  Is it me or is LaRoche always hurt?  He should change his name to Adam LaOuch.

Carl Pavano – A police search warrant revealed that a classmate of Pavano threatened to reveal a homosexual affair with the pitcher if he didn’t buy him an SUV.  I’ll never look at his porn mustache the same.

Joakim Soria went from being a $12 Salad to a Donkeycorn to a Brain Freeze back to a Donkeycorn to off the list completely in 12 short months.  And if this is the first post you’ve ever read at Razzball, I probably lost you by the eighth word.  Later!  In Soria’s wake is Broxton and Holland, who together can be called Hamsterdam.  In other “Saves give me serious agita” news is Ryan Madson.  He went from a donkeycorn to off the list.  Donkeycorns are dropping like flies!  Then there’s Drew Storen.  He was touch ‘n go there for a day or two… Okay, for about a week or two, but it seems like he could be okay.  Yet, he’s starting the year on the DL.  Terrific.  Since our last Closer Look, Beane told us Balfour got the closer job in Oakland and Chris Perez got the job back from Pestano, which has the Italian American Anti-Defamation League up in arms, but that’s the norm for them since they talk with their hands.  Finally, Carlos Marmol had some nerve issues with his hand that many Razzball commenters opined was from too much internet porn surfing.  Sounds like someone is empathizing.  Anyway, here’s all the closers for 2012 fantasy baseball:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Craig Kimbrel (Jonny Venters, Kris Medlen)
2. John Axford (Francisco Rodriguez)
3. Mariano Rivera (+1) (David Robertson, Rafael Soriano)
4. Jonathon Papelbon (+1) (Antonio Bastardo, Chad Qualls)
5. Jose Valverde (+1) (Joaquin Benoit, Octavio Dotel)

Donkeycorns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkeycorns.

6. J.J. Putz (+1) (David Hernandez, Takashi Saito)
7. Heath Bell (+1) (Steve Cishek, Juan Leo Carlos Nunez Oviedo)
8. Huston Street (+6) (Luke Gregerson, Andrew Cashner)
9. Jason Motte (+4) (Fernando Salas, Eduardo Sanchez)
10. Brian Wilson (-4) (Santiago Casilla, Sergio Romo)
11. Joel Hanrahan (Evan Meek, Chris Resop)
12. Andrew Bailey (+4) (Mark Melancon, Daniel Bard)
13. Sergio Santos (+3) (Francisco Cordero)
14. Kyle Farnsworth (+4) (Joel Peralta, Jake McGee)
15. Carlos Marmol (-6) (Kerry Wood, Rafael Dollis)
16. Jordan Walden (+1) (Scott Downs, Rich Thompson)
17. Frank Francisco (+3) (Jon Rauch, Ramon Ramirez)
18. Brandon League (+6) (Tom Wilhelmsen, George Sherrill)

Brain Freeze

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Matt Capps– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Valencia in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

19. Rafael Betancourt (+2) (Rex Brothers)
20. Javy Guerra (-1) (Kenley Jansen, Matt Guerrier)
21. Grant Balfour (+8) (Brian Fuentes, Faustino De Los Santos)
22. Sean Marshall (-10) (Nick Masset, Aroldis Chapman)
23. Joe Nathan (Mike Adams, Alexi Ogando)
24. Brett Myers (+2) (Wilton Lopez, David Carpenter, Brandon Lyon)
25. Chris Perez (+4) (Vinnie Pestano, Tony Sipp)
26. Jim Johnson (Kevin Gregg, Matt Lindstrom)
27. Matt Thornton (-3) (Jesse Crain, Addison Reed, Will Ohman, Hector Santiago)
28. Matt Capps (Glen Perkins, Jared Burton)
29. Greg Holland/Jonathan Broxton (-19) (Aaron Crow)
30. Brad Lidge/Henry Rodriguez (-27) (Drew Storen, Tyler Clippard, Mitt Romney)

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2012 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2012 Royals Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of Jeff Zimmerman from Royals Review.

1) Okay, let’s of excitement from me to you for the Royals.  Frankly, I’m joyous about a bunch of these guys.  With that said (here comes the downer-shizz), two guys I worry about are Frenchy and Alex Gordon.  I’m sure Gordon will be fine from a real baseball standpoint, so I’ll leave him alone.  Frenchy though.  22 steals?  That seems like his ceiling tore off its roof and constructed a new ceiling 100 feet above the last ceiling.  Is there any chance he even comes close to 22 steals again?

Not 22, but don’t expect a huge drop off. Ned Yost loves stolen bases, so Frenchy will continue to get the green light.

2) Joakim Soria gets 20 saves — true or false and why?  Jonathan Broxton gets 15 saves — true or false and why?  Greg Holland is actually next in line — true or false and why?

Soria – yes on 20 saves. He pitched a ton better once he dropped his cutter after the first 2 months. Broxton – no on 15 saves. He is a huge wild card since it has been over a year since he has pitched decently. Holland is currently behind Soria and Broxton as the 7th inning guy according to Yost. He was the best pitcher of the 3 last season. A reliever to keep an eye on is Kelvin Herrera. He has dominated in the minors the last couple of season.

3) I already went over my Eric Hosmer 2012 fantasy.  Care to add anything?

2 additions. First, Kaufman Stadium, suppresses HRs for LHH quite a bit.  Only 3 of the 19 HRs Hosmer hit last season were at home. Second, the walk rate, especially when removing the IBB, was historically low for player of his ability and age.

4) Lorenzo Cain plays this year, right?  This isn’t just you guys teasing us again with his upside, is it?  What do you expect of him?

Right now the team has slated him to start in CF. The team has stated long term plans for him leading off. I expect around a 0.280 AVG with 20 SBs.  The big question will be his power. He displayed HR power for the first time with 16 HRs in AAA (PCL). If he brings this power to the majors, expect HRs in the mid-teens.

5) The recent crop of Royal prospects has created a sense of hope for long-time Royals fans.  What is the most likely unintended consequence of this hope?
A) An insatiable demand for throwback Hal McRae and U.L. Washington jerseys.
B) Royal fans actually start to enjoy games vs. medicate themselves with sabermetrics (see Bill James, Rob Neyer, Joe Poz, etc.)
C) A resurgences of awful pun headlines about Royals wins like KC Masterpiece and KC Gives <team> The Royal Treatment.
D) Owner David Glass is so moved by the team’s success that he decides to break from Wal*Mart tradition and offer health care to employees.

B – The Royals maybe the most sabermetically followed team.

The Indians said this, “We don’t expect Grady Sizemore to play 150 to 160 games like he has in the past.”  At the start of the 2012 season it will be four years the last time he played that many games, so I’m glad they’re being realistic.  They should’ve also said, “We don’t expect him to steal 20 bases.  Hit 20 homers.  Hit for much of an average unless you consider .250 much.  Here’s hoping he takes some more nude pictures of himself and we get Grady’s Ladies buying season tickets again.  Now I’m going back to my game of Words With Friends with Asdrubal.”  If you want to assume Grady’s going to be fully healthy in 2012, something I would not assume, then you should get a line near 80/18/75/.250/5.  Oh my dear deity of your choice, Sizemore has become Torii Hunter with a poor average.  I’d avoid unless he falls very late or goes for cheap.  Anyway, here’s some more offseason moves for 2012 fantasy baseball:

Psych!  Before we get into the post, I wanted to tell you about this exciting offer our fantasy basketball side of things has going on.  They’re doing commenter leagues and they’re free!  So if you like your athletes seven-plus feet taller than Dustin Pedroia, you go there.  Anyway II, here’s some offseason moves so far:

Ryan Doumit – Heads to Twins.  Recently overheard in the Twins front office, “Morneau and Mauer are sick of having only each other to talk to while on the Disabled List.  We need some injury-prone player to sit between them.”  Doumit fills that slot.  He can also play 1st base, catcher and, for once it doesn’t matter that his last name is German for “Without a Mitt,” as he can see time at DH.  If Doumit can stay healthy, he could be a top ten catcher.  That “if” has its own branch of government that just passed a law that says Doumit can never stay healthy.

Joe Nathan – Signed a two-year deal with the Rangers to be their closer.  For real baseball, I think this is a terrible deal for the Rangers.  Nathan’s 37 years old and, while his K-rate wasn’t bad, he never looked lights-out, except for a stretch through July.  Now you’re throwing him in the heat of Arlington where home runs fly.  Last year his home ERA was 3.04 and his away ERA was 7.50.  I think the Rangers are going to regret this decision.  This is me telling the Rangers that.  For fantasy, his name will make him cost a bit more than I’d want to spend on a closer.  He probably will drift between a Donkeycorn and Brain Freeze for the better part of the year.

Neftali Feliz – Gets his wish, and will finally start for the Rangers.  He’ll begin to transition into a closer that throws six innings a game in the Dominican Winter League, which will give him a leg up on tiring out around August.  His K-rate last year was a huge shambles or Suge Hambles if you roll with rap impresarios who are into spoonerisms.  I’m not sure how a closer could even have a K-rate of 7.80 with Feliz’s stuff.  I’m not just saying that to sound stupid, though it probably doesn’t hurt.  His fastball, curve and change were all the same velocity as previous years.  He added in a slider, but adding that shouldn’t have killed his shizz.  Hitters were just making good contact, or, at least, better contact and not getting as fooled.  His walks also went through the roof.  I mean, 30 walks and 54 Ks in 62 1/3 innings is terrible.  Who are you, Kevin Gregg?  But as we know from Dempster and C.J. Wilson’s transition to being a starter, Feliz is probably going to have the best year of his young career.  I’ll be on the outside looking in though, feels like too much risk to me.  Could see him giving a line of 10-6/3.55/1.20/95 in 120 innings.

Wade LeBlanc – Traded to the Marlins for John Baker.  According to Elias Sports Bureau, John Baker and Wade LeBlanc were the first two players ever traded that also sound like they were in the Backstreet Boys.  Yeah, they didn’t say that.  Like when his friends left Central Perk, LeBlanc just lost all of his value.

Jonathan Broxton – Signed on with the Royals to be their set-up man.  I have the perfect nickname for him now that he’s in Kansas City, the Honky Tonk Badonkadonk.  Oh, please, like you’ve never noticed how Broxton has the back porch of a rap video hoochie mama.  This signing sends Aaron Crow into the rotation.  The good news is you’re not the Royals and don’t have to put Aaron Crow in your fantasy rotation.  Yay, small miracles.

Chris Iannetta – Headed to the Angels.  I guess Scioscia felt like he needed to upgrade Jeff Mathis’s backup.  I’m only half joking.  The Angels are supposed to non-tender Mathis, but I wouldn’t put anything past the Sciosciapath.  Also, Hank Conger’s in the wings, i.e., Iannetta won’t get 350 ABs.  Though he never has.

Ramon Hernandez – Going to the Rockies to replace the recently damned Iannetta.  Hernandez will do exactly what he’s done for the last five years.  For those who need a sneaky, solid catcher in 2 catcher leagues, you can do worse.  (Better too, but let’s not quibble.)

Clint Barmes – Signed with the Pirates.  I have nothing to say about this, except Barmes’s deal for $10.5 million was the Pirates first contract for over $10 million since Steve Buechele’s in the 1991-1992 offseason.  The Pirates are committed to winning now!  Black and yellow!

David DeJesus – Will bring his special brand of pretty unexciting baseball from a fantasy perspective to the Chicago Cubs.  He’ll play right field, unless the Cubs can move Alfonso Soriano for five cents on the dollar.  In related news, Alfonso Soriano wants to know who listed him on eBay.  The eBay username is WonEpstein and there’s no reserve price.