Well, not much has changed for closers since last month when we did a run down of all of them. Kimbrel got a save, Axford got a save, and everyone else sucks. Holly Robinson Peete closers are a mess! I don’t think there’s ever been so many Brain Freezes before. I almost feel like adding an extra category below the Brain Freezes called, “The Legend of Gloom.” Wha’ happened? Did someone poison the bullpen water? Has Mariano Rivera made it so when he retires there won’t be any more closers? There will only be starters and “Those Other Guys.” To recap this month in closing quickly: Valverde has been less than stellar, Putz and Street just don’t close games, Motte hasn’t been good, Brian Wilson became Casilla who Bochy pulled after one batter during one game, Joel Hanrahananananan gave fantasy owners the question, “Who’s Juan Cruz?”, Sergio Santos may start throwing at some point in the next few weeks, the Red Sox gave the job to someone who has an over 10 ERA, Frank-Frank hasn’t had a blank-blank inning in forever, Kyle Farnsworth left stage right and Rodney, who couldn’t get saves last year, entered stage “I can’t believe Rodney’s closing games,” Guerra’s been about as bad as expected, Walden blew one save and lost the job, What the H. Santiago?, What the H. Bell?, Grant Balfour might get traded, Jim Johnson gave fantasy owners the question, “Juan Cruz or Pedro Strop? Wait, who?”, the closers on terrible teams have looked good so they’ll probably be traded or just not save games, and Brad Lidge is afraid of heights and the mound is above the field so he went to the DL which is on sea level. Got all of that? Yeah, I’m not sure I did either. Anyway, here’s all the closers for 2012 fantasy baseball:
$12 Salads
You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.
1. Craig Kimbrel (Jonny Venters, Kris Medlen) 2. John Axford(Francisco Rodriguez) 3. Mariano Rivera (David Robertson, Rafael Soriano) 4. Jonathon Papelbon (Antonio Bastardo, Chad Qualls)
Donkeycorns
Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkeycorns. 5. Huston Street (+3) (Luke Gregerson, Andrew Cashner) 6. Jim Johnson (+15) (Pedro Strop, Matt Lindstrom) 7. Joel Hanrahan(+4) (Juan Cruz, Jason Grilli) 8. J.J. Putz(-2) (David Hernandez, Bryan Shaw) 9. Jason Motte (-1) (Fernando Salas, Mitchell Boggs) 10.Jose Valverde(-6) (Joaquin Benoit, Octavio Dotel) 11. Rafael Betancourt (+7) (Rex Brothers) 12. Brandon League(+6) (Tom Wilhelmsen) 13. Fernando Rodney (Joel Peralta, Jake McGee) 14. Grant Balfour(+6) (Brian Fuentes, Ryan Cook)
15. Brett Myers(+8) (David Carpenter, Brandon Lyon) 16. Joe Nathan(+6) (Mike Adams, Alexi Ogando) 17. Kenley Jansen/Javy Guerra (+2) (Matt Guerrier)
Brain Freeze
I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Matt Capps– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Valencia in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.
18. Sean Marshall(+3) (Aroldis Chapman, Jose Arredondo)
19. Santiago Casilla (-10) (Sergio Romo, Jeremy Affeldt) 20. Chris Perez (+4) (Vinnie Pestano, Tony Sipp)
21. Matt Capps (+6) (Glen Perkins, Jared Burton) 22. Jonathan Broxton(+6) (Aaron Crow) 23. Henry Rodriguez (+6) (Tyler Clippard, Brad Lidge) 24. Frank Francisco(-8) (Jon Rauch, Bobby Parnell, Ramon Ramirez) 25. Alfredo Aceves(-13) (Franklin Morales, Daniel Bard) 26. Carlos Marmol(-11) (Rafael Dolis, Kerry Wood) 27. Heath Bell (-19) (Steve Cishek, Edward Mujica) 28.Scott Downs(-11) (Jordan Walden, LaTroy Hawkins) 29. Matt Thornton/Hector Santiago(-1) (Addison Reed, Jesse Crain) 30. Francisco Cordero (-15) (Casey Janssen, Luis Perez, Sergio Santos, Lloyd Moseby)
Before going through the closer upheaval rigmarole, I thought it important to set some context on blown saves. From 2009-2011 (three seasons), of pitchers with at least 10 saves, 11 relievers blew 16 or more saves. Only three of those pitchers (Matt Capps, Carlos Marmol and Jim Johnson) are still closers. Leo Nunez and Brian Wilson aren’t closing for, mostly, non-baseball-related reasons. While the other half (Kevin Gregg, Francisco Cordero, Francisco Rodriguez, Chad Qualls, Brad Lidge and Kerry Wood) deservedly do not have full time closing duties. However, for these pitchers to lose their Rolaids relief roles, they had to blow, on average, 5 – 7 saves a season. That’s a lot when you think about it. And even when some of these gentlemen blew that many saves, about half were still given the ball with the game on the line.
Expanding the pool, 26 pitchers recorded at least 10 saves from 2009-2011 and blew 10 – 14 opportunities. Of the 26, roughly 15 (Bell, Papelbon, League, Soria, Hanrahan, Madson, Rivera, Francisco, Betancourt, Street, Perez, Farnsworth, Feliz, Putz and Walden) are/would be full time closers today. Of the remaining 11, two are current closers (Broxton and Rodney) and the rest have largely been middle relievers or flamed out (Ryan Franklin and Bobby Jenks). Consequently, it seems that blowing 3 – 5 saves in a season isn’t at all detrimental (in recent history at least) to maintaining a hold on the closer position.
This is by no means scientific (neither is the usage of bullpens) as many factors contribute to relief upheaval. I do think it puts in perspective how often a closer needs to fail before he’s removed from the position though. For instance, just last year Walden (10), Marmol (10), Capps (9) and Kimbrell (8) led closers in blown saves. After them, Soria blew seven leads and Farnsworth, Cordero, Feliz, Santos and Nunez blew six. Of those, only Cordero (and potentially Nunez) could not get a job closing because of ability in 2012.
Check the bottom of the column for the BS meter, which will track blown saves for relevant relievers all season long.
Chicago White Sox: Poor Robin Ventura waited until the 14th inning to get his “best” reliever into the game. The White Sox had a two-run lead when Hector Santiago took the mound. He struck out the first guy he faced, but then surrendered a single to Eric Skarsgård Sogard who was followed by the mighty Cespedes who homered to left. Seth Smith and Kurt Suzuki singled back-to-back and Kila Ka’aihue brought home the winning run. At least Santiago was around the plate (15 of his 21 pitches were strikes)? Santiago is getting killed by the long ball (30% HR/FB rate), while posting a nasty K:BB rate (9.00). In addition, every single runner Santiago has allowed on base has scored. If Rolaids spells relief, that spells regression. Meanwhile Jesse Crain was unavailable because of an oblique injury, which isn’t supposed to be serious. I have faith in Santiago’s stuff, but not Ventura’s patience. I’d put my money on Addison Reed at this point, unless Crain is healthy.
Chicago Cubs: While Carlos Marmol has been horrendous (with as many walks as K’s this year), the rest of the Chicago Cubs bullpen has been even worse. There’s no silver lining to Marmol’s stats as his FIP and xFIP are right in line with his wretched ERA. That said, it is just 5.2 IPs and the Cubs are going to keep throwing him out there to extract value and because they have no choice. At the end of Tuesday’s game, Dale Sveum said, ”He’s been pitching good. To me, that’s just a case of a 2-2 slider that one of the strongest guys in baseball hit for a home run. Did he do anything wrong or whatever? No, it was just another guy on the other side of the fence making a lot of money who does that quite often.” Marmol is and will continue to be the closer. So, basically, there’s no reason to handcuff or speculate here.
Washington Nationals: Brad Lidge has two blown saves, a 5.14 ERA and a 2.00 WHIP. Meanwhile, Henry Rodriguez has been near perfect (0.84 WHIP). However, Rodriguez has been working around a pretty ridiculous walk rate (six batters in 8.1 IPs) and has a .059 BABIP. At a certain point, the fairy tale will end. In addition, Davey Johnson keeps saying he’s going to throw Lidge out there in the ninth, vertigo and all. I’d rather own Rodriguez, he’s just better, but there’s no reason to drop Lidge yet.
Cleveland Indians: Chris Perez is awful, that is what is known as a baseball fact. Another baseball fact? Perez is the anointed closer. He has seven saves and as long as he keeps his blown saves down there’s no reason for the Indians to do anything. He’ll likely have to blow a few saves in a row or somehow get to 5-6 blown saves before the All Star Break to be in danger of losing the job. Meanwhile Vinnie Pestano is straight dirty and own-able just based on his nastiness (11 K:BB rate). However, it’s unlikely Pestano finishes with double digit saves, barring a Perez injury. If you desperately need saves, you might have to look elsewhere (Houston [Wilton Lopez], Oakland [Fautino de los Santos, Brian Fuentes]).
Baltimore Orioles: Orioles fans can breathe a sigh of relief as it appears Buck Showalter realized Pedro Strop is the second best reliever on the squad. If you own Jim Johnson and are a hand-cuffer, Strop is your man. Strop has paired impressive K-rates with high walk rates throughout his career but also gets a good bit of ground balls (a double play can mitigate a walk pretty quickly). He’s capable of a 3.85 ERA with 65+ K’s this year. Strop is, at the moment, just a handcuff as he’ll only get save chances when Johnson has the flu. Although, apparently, Johnson is still at the hospital having tests on what might be a bacterial issue, so Strop could have a few days as closer.
Boston Red Sox: While his return to the bullpen was momentary (for the time being), Daniel Bard reminded folks of how dominant he can be as a reliever (he entered the game with one out and a runner on third and didn’t allow the runner to score). Meanwhile, Alfredo Aceves is 3/5 in save opportunities and sports an astronomical 18.00 ERA and 2.75 WHIP. Andrew Bailey is on the 60-day DL and out until July. Aceves has some rope here given the rest of the bullpen is really bad. However, a couple of poor starts from Bard and an implosion or two from Aceves could get Bard in the closer seat. If you’re speculating here, grab Bard. He’s the only arm I’d be happy owning in the situation and, apparently, he was available in relief Wednesday night.
St. Louis Cardinals: From 2009-2011, Jason Motte had eight blown saves with just 11 conversions. Of course, for the majority of that time, he wasn’t actually a closer. Still, it does demonstrate the short amount of time Motte has actually been holding the role (heck, he hasn’t even been pitching that long, as he’s a converted catcher). Motte suffered his first blown save on Monday and sports an ugly 4.05 ERA. He is walking a few too many batters, but has a great K-rate and is really suffering from allowing all his HRs early in the season. There’s likely little to be worried about here even though Marc Rzepczynski started the ninth against the Chicago Cubs (he was facing a lefty) Tuesday. Rzepczynski promptly gave up a tying HR any way.
Toronto Blue Jays: With Sergio Santos on the DL, Francisco Cordero assumes a role he’s familiar with. From 2009-2011, Cordero recorded 116 saves and only blew 17. That’s the third best differential during that time frame (behind Heath Bell and Mariano Rivera). Of course, that was in the National League and Cordero has been anything but automatic this season. Cordero had a 1.91 K:BB rate last year and is sporting a 2.00 K:BB rate this year. He is being hit hard in the early going (20.8% LD rate, .360 BABIP) and will experience some bumps in the unforgiving AL East. Even if Cordero somehow turns into a lights out reliever (something he hasn’t been since 2007), Santos will get the job back once he’s healthy. The Blue Jays brought Santos in because he has the stuff to compete in the division. He’s their future at closer and they need to make it work now when the stakes aren’t very high. Cordero is a fine short-term speculation, but he’ll go back to trying to get holds when Santos is healthy. Santos will be out for about a month, even though an MRI showed no structural damage.
New York Mets: Frank Francisco has put up one ugly superficial stat line so far: 7.36 ERA, 1.77 WHIP. He has been walk happy so far (issuing 4 free passes in 7.1 IPs), but has, at least, maintained a solid K-rate. In addition, his strand rate (46.2%) and BABIP (.375) have done him no favors. Still, when healthy, Francisco is a solid reliever. He’ll rebound to put up a 3.30 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 60 K line at the end of the year. The only reason to own Jon Rauch is for potential Francisco injuries.
Kansas City Royals: Unlike Grey, I’ve been on the Jonathan Broxton bandwagon for awhile now, believing the Royals would want to do all they could to turn Broxton into a trade-able commodity. So far, Broxton has a 2.50 K:BB rate and is averaging 95.7 MPH on his fastball, a similar rate to 2010, which saw him post a 4.01 ERA, 3.01 FIP and 3.20 xFIP. Broxton’s current ratios will mirror his end of the year line. He’ll probably even strike out 60+.
Can I get a “no” with eleven O’s? I personally don’t have the heart right now to type them all. Yesterday, Giancarlo Stanton, the pride and joy of my heart and the name scribbled all over my Trapper Keeper, said that his knee is bothering him and will continue to bother him. He said it’s “something that’s obviously not going to get much better playing every day.” Of course, like the fortune cookie game where you add “in bed” at the end, everything that Giancarlo says also has, “but I will do my best for my novio, Grey Albright.” You are mi novio too, Giancarlo. We are boy dot-dot-dot friends. There’s a dot-dot-dot in there, but sometimes it feels like there’s not. Court papers say that dot-dot-dot needs to be from 250 feet away. I’m pretty bummed out, because I do think he’ll play 135-ish games, but if he’s not at 100% with his knees, it could hurt his swing and the ten or so steals he can contribute. The best case scenario is once the weather heats up, some of the pain is alleviated and, luckily, he plays in a warm weather city. My sad emoticons are weeping. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:
Scott Baker – Out for the year with a bad elbow. It’s a painful surgery, but at least it’s roomy in the designated waiting room.
Ryan Braun – Should return on Thursday after he sat out yesterday with minor chest tightness. He must’ve caught the 24-hour shpilkis bug.
George Kottaras – 2-for-3 with his 2nd home run of the year. Him and Wilin should buy Ramon Hernandez and Lucroy some plane tickets to Venezuela. The preceding was not a paid advertisement by the Venezuela Chamber of Commerce.
Justin Verlander – 8 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 6 baserunners, 7 Ks. One of the more dazzling 4 earned run games I’ve seen in a while. No-hitter into the 5th and a one-hitter going through 8 innings only throwing 81 pitches. Desmond Jennings said, “If you get the ball in between the giant white lines, you’ve accomplished something.” He’s either talking about Verlander or hanging out with a hooker who has aspirations to be an air-traffic controller.
Victor Martinez – Tigers said there’s a chance he could return later this season. Read: In time for the playoffs. I’d continue to ignore for our purposes, or porpoises if dolphins are reading.
Justin Masterson – Ticker shock! The Indians gave up double digit runs, but Masterson’s only credited with 3 ER in 5 IP (albeit with 9 baserunners). Unlike his sister Mary Stuart, he can’t always be some kind of wonderful.
Shelley Duncan – 3-for-5 with a home run. No hand injuries reported yet from his high-fives.
Johnny Damon – Signed with the Indians to be a part-time utility man. While combing his hair, Damon said he was impressed with the Indians strict no-scalping policy.
Cory Luebke – 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 8 baserunners, 5 Ks. Has had a bit of a bumpy start to his season (and a bumpy start to this game), but if you can find a restless owner, I’d definitely see if you can pry him away cheap.
Jon Lester – 8 IP, 3 ER, 5 baserunners, 6 Ks and 116 pitches. Way to unnecessarily extend your ace in his 2nd start of the year. On the positive side, Valentine could help with the ice wrap on his arm since he’s an expert on wraps.
Brandon Belt – Sitting for two straight days seemingly because of his 1-for-10 start. I hope Gallagher mistakes Bochy’s head for a watermelon.
Buster Posey – Missed Wednesday’s start due to shingles, which you don’t get from raising the roof too much.
Tim Lincecum – 2 1/3 IP, 6 ER, 10 baserunners, 3 Ks. I know one has nothing to do with the other, but why do I suddenly want to bench Bumgarner today?
Nate Schierholtz – 2-for-4 with 2 homers. Don’t even get me started how this guy should’ve been playing every day for the last three years. You killed his spirit, Bochy!
Sergio Santos – Got the save yesterday, but will be away from the club from Thursday until Saturday for the birth of his child. I jumped the gun on the news for Wednesday. You can call me Preemie Grey.
Ricky Romero – 8 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 5 Ks. I was pretty conflicted with whether or not I wanted Romero this year because of his 7-ish K-rate — SPOILER ALERT — Romero’s K-rate is in the box at the end of Seven — and his FIP. I’m glad Rudy pressured me to draft him in one of our leagues.
Stephen Strasburg – 6 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 9 Ks. He got the W with the inverted W motion. He made it through 100 pitches for the first time in his career. God Bless, St. Rasburg.
Drew Storen – Underwent minor elbow surgery. That’s like saying having your tubes tied is minor. Yeah, I suppose it is, but you want someone monkeying by your wrench? The Nats said he should be back before the All-Star break. They previously said he couldn’t throw because of strep throat. Cust kayin’. In yesterday’s game, Henry Rodriguez was warming up for a save opportunity until the Nats tacked on a run to make the point moot. Lidge had also thrown the day before, so the alternating closerousel is still in effect.
Mike Napoli – Was out yesterday after being hit in the temple. Sounds like a religious hate crime.
Peter Bourjos – 1-for-3, 3 RBIs with a home run. I’ll be honest, I feel like people are preparing to lynch me for my ranking of Bourjos, so I’m glad to see him do something. Now, if he did a little more of something, I’d be even happier. If he did a lot of something, I’d be through the Gee Dee roof.
Josh Willingham – 1-for-4 with his third homer as he led the Twins to a 6 run outburst, which, I believe, is the most runs they’ve scored in the last two years.
Starlin Castro – Got his 5th SB and seems cemented in the 3rd spot of the Cubs lineup. Wouldn’t be surprised if he’s a top 3 SS this year (after Tulo and Hanley). If only he wasn’t constantly being awakened by those screaming lambs.
A.J. Pierzynski – 3-for-4, 4 RBIs with his 2nd homer of the year. On Firezynski. He reminded me of this classic post by Rudy.
Alejandro De Aza – Back-to-back games going 2-for-5 with a homer. Could we have our first hot schmotato of the year?
Aroldis Chapman – 2 IP, 1 baserunner, 5 Ks as he beat Rzepczynki, who couldn’t land any of his letters on a Triple Letter score. 5 Ks in two innings with only one baserunners… Guessing his agent is gonna put out a hit on Dusty any day now.
Joe Weiland – He’s being called up to replace Dustin Moseley. I believe Weiland is a fan of Orange Crush and every game Joe pitches there’s a threat of volcano eruption. He looks like your standard Hodgepadre, which means he’s rosterable in all leagues when he’s pitching at home and a wait-and-see in road games. (Of course, the same goes for Anthony Bass, but he’s less attractive then Weiland.)
Jesus Montero – 1-for-3, 1 RBI with his first start behind the plate. Hallelujah!
Kevin Millwood – 6 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 7 Ks vs. his old club the Rangers. You know Bartolo Colon with his sneaky 4-ish ERA in a pitchers’ park? That’s Millwood. I call them AL-Only guys that you don’t want to own, but someone’s got to. I never said it was pithy.
Jon Jay – 1-for-3 with a homer from the two hole. If he stays in the two hole and hits, The Federalist could have some nice value.
Jonathan Broxton – Blew yesterday’s game in spectacularly awful fashion. With the bases loaded, he had two straight HBPs. Last time he had two straight of those was when the local Waffle House offered Ham and Bacon Pancakes. I’m sure no one who called me crackers for leading with Broxton in last week’s Sell is gonna say they think Broxton is flipping awesome now. But, Grey, can’t Broxton be good? Sure, Random Italicized Voice, but he’s also been hot garbage for the last two years.
Josh Johnson – 3 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 12 baserunners, 1 K. His brother, Gosh, just shook his head and recounted the Halloween video he did with a tube of K-Y and a gourd that ended equally bad.
Joe Nathan – 1 IP, 3 ER with his first blown save. I think he’s got about five more where that came from and a trip to the Disgraceful List in his future.
Troy Tulowitzki – 2-for-6, 2 RBIs. Nursing a hip flexor injury. Is it Tulo injury time already? We couldn’t even get to the All-Star break?
Jason Heyward – 3-for-4, 2 runs, 2 RBIs and a slam & legs. Looky, looky, the mirror fogged up that they held up to his nose.
Randall Delgado – 5 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 6 Ks vs. the Astros. I know the Astros only have one slugger and he’s currently their closer, but this was a solid start from Delgado. He definitely has upside, just gotta watch for the roofie.
James Shields – 8 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 5 Ks vs. the 1927 Tigers as he turned their sizzle to lean, which is no easy task.
Stephen Vogt – 0-for-4 as he DH’d, which is whatever (outside of two catcher, AL-Only leagues), but it makes me think of how much playing time Brandon Belt would get on the Rays. This is why certain teams win, they play their next generation of players. They don’t let them sit of the effin’ bench for Aubrey effin’ Huff. Can someone start a website, Eff Aubrey Huff dot com? I’m so annoyed; I need to take my “medicine.”
Fernando Rodney – In yesterday’s podcast, I said four different relievers would see a save in the month of April for the Rays. Then Rodney went and got his 3rd save. Maybe it has something to do with the rule of threes, but yesterday’s save (getting called on to start the inning and pitching perfectly) has me thinking Rodney might get the majority of the saves until he totally Mr. Bungles things.
Jeremy Hellickson – Was hit in the head by a ball during batting practice. As frequent commenter, Wake Up, said, “So much for being lucky with balls in play.” Initial signs are that he’s okay for his next start, but they took him to the hospital just nicasio.
No surprise that Johan Santana pitched well yesterday. Everyone pitched well yesterday (except relievers). Now I know what it was like to play fantasy baseball during the dead ball era. “Hey, Scoots, I got me a base hit from my second bagger! I’m so excited, but maybe that excitement is from this Coca-Cola that’s made from cocaine! I love me some fizzle! I’m gonna boil this Coca-Cola, then smoke the leftover brown soot. You want in, Scoots? Huh?!” Can’t everyone do the juice and then use FedEx? I miss the shrunken ball era! Did anyone even hit a ball out of the infield yesterday? Someone lower the mound six inches and use aluminum bats. Please! I need Justin Masterson looking like Bob Gibson like I need another hole in my head (I already have four; one of my ears closed up after listening to the Cleveland Indian announcers). Can’t say I wasn’t unpleasantly surprised to see Johan pitching. It would’ve been straight pleasantly, but I don’t own him anywhere. He’s not the pitcher he once was. He’s not going back to that, but he looked like he could be a fairly competent number three fantasy starter if — and this “if” is the size of Gilbert Grape’s mom — he can stay healthy. Though, after yesterday, every healthy pitcher may be a competent number three. Now go smoke some Coca-Cola soot! Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:
Frank Francisco – A perfect inning save. It’s safe to drop Rauch and/or Parnell. If you want, pretend you’re going catch Rauch in a trust exercise, then let him drop. It’s more fun that way.
Jason Bay – 0-for-3. I’m putting the over/under at 24 months for how long until he’s out of baseball.
Andres Torres – Left the 7th inning with a calf strain. He’s headed to the DL. Boo. Or, I guess with an injured calf, it’s moo. Scott Hairston should now see starts against lefties. Jerry Hairston Sr., you named the wrong one after you! (And, really, how do you not name one of your sons, Harry?)
Kirk Nieuwenhuis – He sounds like a piece of furniture at Ikea, but don’t sleep on this guy! See what I did there? Yeah, I’m not sure either. Nieuwenhuis has double digit speed and power and should see the righties in the outfield platoon with Hairston. In NL-Only leagues, I’d definitely grab him because if he hits, he may push Bay to the bench.
Ian Desmond – 3-for-5 with a steal. I know he’s not going to hit .600 this year (though he will maintain his 162 steal pace), but can everyone stop putting a mirror up to his nose to see if he’s dead?
Brad Lidge – 1 IP, 0 ER as he got the save yesterday (though it wasn’t pretty. Though II, The Return of Though: Lidge hasn’t had a pretty save in three years). Davey Johnson said he’s going to alternate back and forth between Lidge and Rodriguez for saves. In other words, he’s doing the highly scientific method of Eeny Meeny Miney Moe.
Stephen Strasburg – 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks. Worked through seven innings with only 82 pitches. He dispatched of the Cubs Thirty Days’ War-quick. Woot, woot, House of Strasburg, raise your pith helmets!
Tommy Hanson – 5 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 4 Ks. Saw glimpses of Hommy Tanson yesterday, but also saw glimpses of why I avoided him this year. He seemed to labor a bit through five innings only throwing in the upper-80′s, then luckily was bailed out by Kris Medlen, the newest flat-billed pitchypus.
Jason Heyward – 0-for-4, as he batted 7th against a lefty. I imagine he’ll move up to 6th vs. righties, but he needs to hit his way out of the bottom of the order, like, quickfast.
Ryan Dempster – 7 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 10 Ks. I don’t think I drafted him anywhere (Grey have too many teams), but I did like him in the preseason (member that phase of our life? It was seventy-two hours ago, which sounds like a bad action-thriller).
Bryan LaHair – Missed the opener because his back pain was too much to LaBear.
Alfredo Aceves – One game, one inherited runner allowed to score for the Tigers’ walkoff win. So far, so good! I thought Bobby Valentine was hitting the sauce when he put Alfredo in as the closer, but he wasn’t creamed yesterday (that was like a triple pun point), so I doubt anything’s changed with the bullpen situation. If anything, Melancon just made himself look worse. “Do I have to stand in the corner? Big Papi farted over there.” That’s Melancon after being scolded.
Ryan Sweeney – 2-for-4 with a triple. He’s in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell. His sister, Julia, is not.
Jay Bruce – 1-for-3, 2 RBIs, 1 run. One B, one R, one C, one E and eleven U’s, what do you get?
Zack Cozart – 2-for-4, 1 run. Bu-da-ba-bah-dah! Bu-da-ba-bah-dah! That’s Cozart’s Out Of The Minors Concerto played from the two hole.
Chris Heisey – Launched a double in his only at-bat. Might be the best 4th outfielder in baseball. Wait, that would mean Ludwick is better than him. Yeah, Heisey’s the best 3rd outfielder that is currently a 4th outfielder. Hopefully, Dusty and his toothpick get on the same page and move Ludwick to the pine. On a real baseball note, the Reds are gonna be tough this year.
Johnny Cueto – 7 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 4 Ks. He came up against a Miami club that left Crayola Canyon late on Wednesday and had to play again early on Thursday. I’m not reading too much into Cueto’s start (actually, I guess I am). I’m still not going in on Cueto.
Ryan Doumit – Slated to start in the outfield on Opening Day. Guess no one told the Twins Doumit is German for “Without Mitt.”
Scott Baker – It takes a certain kind of mettle to get injured while rehabbing from an injury and Baker’s heavy with that mettle.
Jonathan Broxton – The Royals named Broxton the closer. Too bad they didn’t also name a closer for the White Sox. Can go ahead and drop Holland.
Jack Hannahan – Hit a 3-run HR, his 3rd opening day HR. It’s too bad closing time at Hannahan’s is April 30th. Enjoy the happy hour specials while you can.
Justin Masterson – 8 IP, 1 ER, 3 baserunners, 10 Ks, but no win. Let’s see if you can guess the theme? Morroccan! No, Random Italicized Voice. The theme is great start from the starter followed by hideous relief.
Chris Perez – 2/3 IP, 3 ER and the blown save. Cleveland isn’t known for BBQ, but their closer sure looks like smoked meat. He should let Masterson go Brutus Beefcake on his mullet for blowing his awesome start. Perez owners – if you haven’t done it already – grab Signore Pestano.
Jose Bautista – 3-for-4 with his first home run (since I started believing him — I’ve been backwards dunked in Bautista’s waters!).
J.P. Arencibia – 1-for-7, 3 RBIs and a home run. Sounds about the going rate for Arencibia — he’s a one spicy catcher!
Brett Lawrie – 0-for-6. Drop him!
Roy Halladay – 8 IP, 0 ER, 2 baserunners, 5 Ks. Since Spring Training is still fresh in everyone’s brain, do you remember how ridiculous it was when people were saying Halladay’s lost velocity and getting pounded? I mean, it’s not like he was going against the 1988 A’s yesterday, but c’mon. Don’t aggravate Grey. You disrupt his mustache’s sheen.
Jose Valverde – 1 IP, 2 ER….and there goes the suspense for whether Valverde could go perfect in save opportunities for a 2nd year in a row. The last guy I remember being perfect was Lidge in 2008 and he had – gulp – 11 blown saves the next year. Anyway, in summary, Valverde sucked but owners can’t be mad because he got the conshellation prize, Verlander owners can’t be mad because he threw an awesome start, leagues with QS instead of Wins have already programmed out any Blown Save-related anger like a robot who can’t feel emotions.
Justin Verlander – 8 IP, 0 ER, 3 baserunners, 7 Ks. Of course, he pitched well. Dan Cortese from Rock ‘n Jock Softball could’ve pitched well yesterday.
Clayton Kershaw – Only pitched three innings because of a stomach flu. Or maybe Bobby Valentine is managing the Dodgers by satellite and thought Kershaw should be a middle reliever who starts games.
Kenley Jansen – 1 IP, 2 ER. I’m not sure there’s anything more frustrating than a middle reliever you know isn’t going to get saves that you own for ratio and strikeout help that gives up runs. It’s like you make an arrangement with a girl that it’s strictly a sexual relationship and then you meet her parents. During sex.
Grey covered the Andrew Bailey and Frank Francisco situations nicely on Tuesday. However, I had already started putting information together, so I’ll leave you with a few lines from my Francisco write-up:
While Francisco is not expected to miss anytime, we’re talking about a relatively fragile relief pitcher here and a Mets organization that has a hard enough time keeping healthy players off the disabled list. Jon Rauch is next in line and is a good speculative add. He’s also a member of the fragile Freddy all-stars so take a look at Bobby Parnell in most dynasty/deep league and in super deep ones Ramon Ramirez deserves a look.
As for the Red Sox, Bailey, when healthy, will be the closer. Of course, it could be four months before he’s fully healthy and how often he remains healthy is really up in the air. Alfredo Aceves is an intriguing arm in the pen; Grey just went over his Aceves fantasy this morning.
The other option, Mark Melancon, needs to prove he can hang. Some suggest he doesn’t have the raw stuff to be anything other than an average set-up guy in the American League East. Melancon deserves an add and should get at least 10 saves, but I wouldn’t count on more and wouldn’t mind trading him quickly. In reality, Bard could likely end up with the most saves for the Red Sox this season.
Tampa Bay Rays: With Grey around, do you even need me? He clearly was on top of the Kyle Farnsworth situation yesterday. As he noted, the elbow pain is no joke and the timetable for Farnsworth’s recovery is a great unknown. The Rays have built a dynamic and cheap bullpen recently and Manager Joe Maddon has shown the willingness to mix and match with interim closers and committee.
That said, Joel Peralta is clearly at the top of the heap and the “reliever to own.” Peralta throws a fastball-splitter-curve at hitters and has had considerable success lately. He will likely post an ERA around 3.35 a solid 1.17 WHIP and 57 K’s. Fernando Rodney is also lurking, but he’s barely a league average reliever. I’m willing to bet he hurts your ratios en route to 6 saves, i.e., it’s not worth it.
One of the more intriguing arms in the pen is J.P. Howell who disappeared from baseball consciousness after missing all of 2010 and most of 2011. However, a healthy Howell is a dynamo on the mound, capable of a 3.10 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 65 K’s. While he’s a lefty, Jake McGee (another devilish southpaw) is also in the pen, solving the “you can’t use your one lefty as a closer” conundrum. Speaking of McGee, last year’s under-the-radar saves option, he has dominated the minors putting up K:BB rates worth salivating over. Look for him to post similar numbers to Howell (3.25 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 63 K’s), but is probably behind Howell in the saves line.
Lastly, there is recently rotation banished Wade Davis. Davis has the stuff and repertoire that should play as a high leverage reliever. In most leagues, I’d just avoid this situation altogether as the likelihood of any one reliever posting 15+ saves seems small. However, for deeper leagues where every save matters, I’d rank them (in terms of most 2012 saves): Peralta, Farnsworth, Howell, McGee, Davis, Rodney. Keep an eye on Davis in keeper/dynasty leagues as he could very well end up the closer of the immediate future.
Jim Johnson: Johnson has a 6.75 spring ERA in just eight innings. He has allowed seven hits, seven runs and six earned runs, while walking six and striking out five. For the last week, it’s been speculated that Johnson has lost velocity. Over the weekend, MASN Sports reported that Johnson wasn’t concerned about any dip in velocity. Then, according to Rotowire, Johnson topped out at 95 MPH on Saturday (which just happened to be his first back-to-back appearance of the Spring). Johnson took Sunday off and pitched again Monday, sitting at 90-92 MPHs. While velocity is always important, movement is vital to Johnson and his need to get ground balls. It’ll be important to watch his first few outings to see if he is getting the dip on his fastball. If he doesn’t net a ton of GBs out of the gate, he could be in trouble. In addition, it might not matter, as the Orioles have a relatively poor infield defense which hampers Johnson’s upside. At the moment, there isn’t an overwhelming need to go out and add Matt Lindstrom or Kevin Gregg, but if Johnson struggles to keep the ball on the ground, feel free to kick the tires on those relievers in deeper leagues.
Chicago White Sox: For shizzles and giggles or to get back at everyone who snickered at him when he got beat down by Nolan Ryan, Robin Ventura refuses to name his closer to start the year. Clearly how Ventura uses his pen early in the season will determine the roles, so pay careful attention to who slots in the seventh, eighth and ninth innings. While that’s obvious, it is important to note what situations Ventura faces in high leverage relief roles, i.e. if lefties are coming up in a tight game in the 8th and Venture doesn’t go to Matt Thornton, he’s the likely closer. If he does go to Thornton, Addison Reed is likely the closer. I do believe Thornton will start the year as closer, but he didn’t thrive in the role last year (albeit in limited opportunities) and he could also be trade bait for the potentially rebuilding club. Thornton and Reed should end up with similar amounts of saves, maybe in the high teens. In super deep leagues, Jesse Crain is a person of interest because Thornton failed last year and Reed is unproven. At the moment, though, Crain is an unspectacular middle relief guy who is a couple of steps from closing. The dark horse in the pen is rookie Hector Santiago. While Santiago pitched well in Spring Training and there’s “buzz” surrounding him, he has just 83 innings above A+ and he wasn’t exactly dominant (7.99 K/9 and 4.21 BB/9 rate). His stuff in the low minors played particularly well, but the 24-year-old might be a season away from being an impact major league reliever.
Kansas City Royals: No doubt trying to outdo young upstart Ventura, Ned Yost is similarly throwing a tantrum and refusing to name his closer. At the start of the season, Yost is likely to go with a more committee approach as he finds the right lever to pull in high leverage situations. In addition, Jonathan Broxton is likely unable to pitch in back-to-back games. If he could be used like this, I’d bet on him being the closer already. As it stands, Greg Holland will get options at the beginning of the year and, with his skill set, could lock the role down. I do believe Broxton will end up with more saves and be the closer the minute he’s able to go back-to-back, however I’d like to own both to hedge my bets. Certainly I’d rather either of these guys than Melancon, Aceves and any of the Rays pen options.
Oakland Athletics: While Grant Balfour is(was) the closer on Opening Day, keep tabs on Fautino de los Santos. Balfour could easily be trade bait and de los Santos can really strike guys out. Of course, he’s got a lot of Carlos Marmol in him and has always walked a ton of guys. If de los Santos can get off to a good start in the seventh/eighth innings and limits his walks, he’s a great guy to stash in deep leagues.
Cleveland Indians: Filed in the obvious department: keep tabs on the health of Chris Perez. In addition, look at early velocity and swinging strike reports and, more broadly, his K:BB rate, which was abysmal last year. If he continues 2011’s trends, set your sights on flamethrower Vinnie Pestano.
Washington Nationals: Another elbow issue to a reliever has put the Nationals bullpen in disarray. While it appeared Brad Lidge or Tyler Clippard had the stuff and inside track to saves, flame throwing Henry Rodriguez has emerged as a leading candidate. Rodriguez, who had a phenomenal Spring, has long posted dominant K/9 rates but has also walked the farm and then some. It’s impossible to know if Rodriguez has the “closer mentality” and, with his inability to find the plate at times, he’ll walk a tightrope, so he’s likely not worth a major investment. He could strike out 80 guys this year with a 3.50 ERA, but his WHIP (1.37) will be untenable at times. Storen is expected back in April; don’t waste a ton of FAAB or moves on this situation. At the end of the day, Storen will have the most saves, followed by Lidge and then Rodriguez.
Mariano Rivera: No need to be worried here. On Sunday, Rivera allowed a run and two hits, the first time he allowed an earned run in Spring Training since 2008. Good lord, for all of the above upheaval, marvel at Rivera.
