Fantasy Baseball Advice

Some rejected titles, Will Bill Still Thrill on the Hill?, Illy Billy, Wagner’s Closed, You Can’t Spell Duaner Sanchez Without Nude Ranch and my personal favorite, Billy Wagner, Act Your Age. Billy Wagner, the Mets closer and guy with the first name Billy, reports tightness in his shoulder. He was scheduled to have an MRI, but Billy’s scared of whatever MRI stands for. (Imaging something, but I’m doing this late on a Monday night, so you’re gonna have to bear with me. Or bare with me on a Nude Ranch. Rawrr!) Duaner Sanchez will probably fill-in for Wagner if he misses time. Heilman would be second in command. After that, coin flip! Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Jorge Posada - To the DL. Might be out for the year. Keep a close eye on this. (Oops, I meant to write, “Keep a closed eye on this.”)

Clayton Kershaw - He’s back and going against the Rockies on Tuesday. If you’re thinking about grabbing him, here’s the yay or nay list. I’d prefer Campillo, Weeks, Kobayashi, Kuroda, Wolf (at home) and Hermida over Kershaw. I want Kershaw over Olsen, Eveland, Edwin Jackson, any A’s or Mariners hitter except Ichiro, Jo-Jo Reyes and Jobacum. Finally, I possibly want Kershaw over Guthrie depending on how Guthrie looks in his next start. He was not good in last year’s 2nd half and his leash is short, as they say in the zoology.

Luis Ayala - I’ve pretty much ignored the Fuentes trade rumors because I don’t think the Rockies are out of the division race and I don’t think they’re moving Fuentes. On the other hand, Rauch should be traded. I’ve picked up Ayala in a few leagues as I await the news.

Jose Valverde - 6 ER in 1/3 of an inning. Brandon Lyon, “Man, he sucks!”

Brett Myers - Soda Popinski is back. I’d take Kershaw over him.

Rickie Weeks - HR yesterday. He looks like a 25-year-old Ray Durham.

Randy Wolf - I kinda wanted to make this the lead for today’s post, but I couldn’t justify it. So the Astros are in discussions to acquire Randy Wolf, the pride of Canoga Park, CA. Seriously, you can’t make this shizz up. Randy Wolf, of a 6.63 road ERA is who the Astros want to acquire. Randy Wolf, of an almost 5.00 ERA in Minute Maid Park over the last three years. Randy Wolf, the guy who fantasy baseball owners know to sit in road games is who the Astros are going after. The Astros, who are 12 games back. Why are the Astros even going after someone? Why Randy Wolf?! I have to move on before this gives me a logic tumor.

Scott Kazmir - 7 IP, 0 ER, 9 Ks. I hope he keeps it up; I just don’t think he will.

Rich Harden - 7 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 10 Ks. Kazmir vs. Harden in The Series…. of Injuries.

Kip Wells - In our Razzball league, where I’m currently in last 1st (I think. There’s an at-bat minimum that Yahoo doesn’t factor in, so the standings aren’t always accurate.), I forgot to move Kip Wells into my lineup.  Sonavabench! He only pitched a third of an inning and he gave up 7 ER. 189.00 ERA, 24.00 WHIP. This is the equivalent of having a 24 inning perfect game on your bench. Or a Marcus Thames 17 home run game on your bench. I so wanna bang my head into a moving car.

Miguel Cabrera - 5-for-6. Now at .290, he will end the season at .320. You do the math!

Matt Joyce - When I saw the Tigers scored 19, I knew the man with the smarty-pants sounding name had to get at least 3 RBIs. He got 5 and went 4-for-6. Matt Joyce was just named the Player of the Week and is on the business end side of the platoon when Mags pushes him.

Jon Lester - Held the Mariners scoreless through 7 1/3 innings as Lester drove them McNulty.

Troy Tulowitzki - 4-for-4. Now he just needs to go 146 for his next 146 and he’ll salvage his season.

Robinson Cano - Why don’t the Yankees send him to Winter Ball so he thinks April is the middle of the season?

When James Shields swung and missed his haymaker yesterday during the Sawx/Rays brawl, Coco should’ve totally spun him around and gave him a springboard splash to the solar plexus. Then once Shields was down, Coco could’ve laid him on top of the Spanish Announcer’s table and dropped the big ‘bow. But, alas…it was Coco Crisp not Koko B. Ware.

Then three innings after the brawl, Manny tweaked a sore hammy and left the game. As he was limping through the dugout, Manny gave Youuuuuuuuk a solid shove. This was heard right before Manny shoved him. Youkilis, “You know with Big Papi on the DL…if you want to teach me the handshake you do with him, I could try to fill in…” Manny, “You’re not my real Papi! I hate you!” *shove* In the next inning, this transpired: Youk, “Sorry about that Manny. I have this extra Chupa Chup lollipop….” Manny, “Gimme! He he he… Thanks, Millar.” Youk, “We talked about this… My name is… Oh forget it.” Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Jacoby Ellsbury - Left the game with a strained wrist. No word if the injury was sustained during Chupa Chup Gate.

Jon Lester - One thing he didn’t have to fight was his control. He didn’t issue one walk. Was the first time this year he pulled off this pretty unremarkable feat.

Jair Jurrjens - The fairy Brave dust only lasts so long. Hey, whatever happened to Jaret Wright?

Ryan Franklin/Todd Wellemeyer - 7th save/7-1, respectively. Disrespectively, seriously? Coming into the year, these guys were a combined 62-73 with, like, a crappy ERA.

Brad Ausmus - The Astros are throwing in the Towles and reinstating Brad “I will be featured in a future Razzball Spotlight” Ausmus as their catcher. Razztastic.

Josh Banks - I said this yesterday in the comments, “He’s not a strikeout pitcher so your expectations should stay in line, but he could be worthwhile while the league takes time to catch up to him and he does pitch at Petco.” Wow, I’m brilliant. If they gave out virtual blogger awards I’d have a virtual mantle full in my virtual bathroom so I could pretend I virtually don’t care.

Negro League Draft - Dave Winfield helped organize a ceremonial draft where Negro League players were picked as honorary members of MLB teams. Very touching. It must be a special day for all these players as they approach their twilight years. The biggest applause was for Atlanta’s pick. A middle infielder known for his distinct batting stance and line drive power. His name is Julio Franco.

Jimmy Rollins - Was benched for not running out a popup. By that logic, Pat Burrell should’ve been benched for the last three years.

Homer Bailey - His 2008 debut was thwarted by a Cole Hamels 3 hit shutout. The game was billed as the best matchup of mulleted young pitchers since a young Randy Johnson faced off against Chuck Finley. Bailey’s control problems carried over from AAA (4 BB in 6.1 IP) and he only had 1 K and that was the pitcher. Stick with common sense and don’t add a pitcher with the name ‘Homer’ to your team…

Jay Bruce - Looks like he went oh-for-four yesterday, but we all know that is not possible, so I’m going to assume he was pulling one of those switcheroos like William Hurt does in that movie with the guy from Lost and the black guy with the droopy eye. (I would’ve said *SPOILER ALERT*, but no one would consider that movie something you could spoil and I never even saw the movie, I’m going on the spoiler from the trailer.)

As Sean Connery says, “Shituation: Dire.” Rios has been the pea under your mattress. The splinter in your paw. The tighty-whitey stain that your fourth grade classmates saw when you were changing for gym and have teased you about for the rest of your life (but maybe that was just me). Alexis Rios wasn’t a random stab in the dark when I pegged him for a terrific year in 2008. I wasn’t driving through the desert, high on peyote, when a random Native American said to me, “Rios will be good this year and make sure to hit the slots at Mohegan Sun.” So it’s disappointing when Rios’s slump looks amaranthine (Word of the Day, and I’m not even sure it’s used correctly, so try to use context clues), but there has to be an end in sight, doesn’t there? Yes, I believe there is an end to his struggles. But, for the record, Rudy and I disagree on this. Rudy says he should be sold. Well, whatever. Then I’m going down with the U.S.S. Rios. Rios’s gone through months like this before and he’s come out of it. Sure, his lineup looks like it should be in the AAGPBL, but I’m buying.  Anyway, here’s some more fantasy baseball hitters and pitchers to buy and sell:

BUY

Chris Perez - Isringhausen could be done done. To define those italics. Isringhausen is too old, too tired and Chris Perez is too heffin’ good. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Izzy hang up the cleats and retire (then return in two years as the Rays closer.) But can Ryan Franklin hold off Chris Perez? About as well as Britney Spears’s kids have of staving off rehab in twelve years. I think Perez could have fifteen saves this year and excellent peripherals. He’s not a starter that is biding his time in middle relief. He was a closer in the minors. A closer with terrific numbers.

Curtis Granderson - As most of you know, I think Curtis blows. But I’m starting to think, no one likes him, so whenever everyone starts zigging, you gotta look to zag. Now don’t zag for the sake of zagging — nobody likes a willy-nilly zagger! — but if you can move Pat Burrell and Joe Saunders or someone of their ilk for Granderson, you gotta consider it.

Corey Hart - Might be too late to buy because of his recent streak. As Alexis Rios and Corey Hart prove, invest in speedy OFs with girl first names!

Joey Devine - In a couple of leagues where I had Casilla, I’ve moved to Waking Joey Devine.

Matt Garza - 3 earned runs in almost 20 innings since coming off the DL. He’s a very capable pitcher with good K numbers in the minors. The only drawback is the Twins gave him to the Rays and the Twins know pitching. Damn you, Twinkies, what do you know that I don’t?!

Bobby Crosby - If he stays healthy, he could give you 20 home runs and a belch-worthy average.

Adam Wainwright - I’m still onboard the love train. He was a mess in the first half of ’07, but in the second half, he cut his runs allowed by almost half, his home runs allowed by more than half and he showed stamina. Don’t let his last two starts get you down.

Mike Cameron - I see Krispie Young Sr. on waivers in a lot of leagues. In ESPN leagues, he’s only 20% owned. (Of course, I do believe five thousand 3rd graders draft ESPN teams then abandon them, but still.) I’m sporting Cameron on a ten team mixed league and I’m getting what I expect. For a fifth outfielder, you can do worse. On the team I have him, I’m balancing his shizzy average with Youk.

Vladimir Guerrero - So he’s as limber as Ron Kovic, this isn’t something new.

Jose Contreras - Okay, so he remembers when they called movies “talkies” — whatever, he’s solid when healthy and he’s been healthy.

Johnny Damon/Robinson Cano - I’ve beat these horses before, but I still believe.

SELL

Ben Sheets - I’ve said it before. Ben Sheets can win the Cy Young. Know what else? Hillary can win the nomination. Andy Milonakis can be funny. I can date Mila Kunis without incurring criminal charges. Now will is an entirely different matter. Will Hillary win the nomination? I suppose if whatever state Obama is in collapses into the core of the earth. Will fatty ever be funny? I suppose if he steals better jokes. Will I date Kunis? If I can get rid of Culkin, you better believe it. So will Sheets win the Cy Young? He hasn’t made it to 30 starts since ‘04. That year he had 264 Ks and 32 walks. Go ahead look at those numbers again. Yeah, they’re insane. That was coupled with a 2.70 ERA. He has pinpoint control and filthy stuff. Yeah, I’m a fan. Unfortunately, he could get injured in a pillow fight with your niece. So as much as I like him, I’m passing.

Edinson Volquez - In the comments recently someone asked about Edinson. Here’s what I said, “You see what’s happening with Cueto right now? Yeah, Volquez will be seeing him in the ‘kinda not startable’ category soon. Edinson’s a great pitcher but very, very rarely does a pitcher arrive in the majors and never hit a correction period. Could he avoid it? I suppose, but you don’t bet on the least likely thing to happen. You’re playing with house money right now and you need to cash out and move on.” Admit it, I take your breath away like Dr. Kevorkian.

Adrian Gonzalez - Don’t fall in love with his first half numbers. Let’s put it this way, he says to Teixeira, “You complete me.” Now don’t sell him for Luis Hernandez and a bottle of Valtrex and say, “Look, Grey, I did good!”

Jon Garland - Don’t make the same mistake The Town That Bobby Grich Built Angels made. He’s not a great pitcher.

Jon Lester/Doug Davis - As Hank said in the comments the other day, “Damn, cancer really is the new AIDS. Free plane tickets, no-hitters, and sympathy rotation spots. ‘What kind of cancer do you have? The All-Over kind.’” Meanwhile, Casey Kotchman writes in his journal, “Mono is not good enough!”

Kevin Youkilis - Youuuuuuuuuk is not a 2nd half hitter.

Joe Saunders - Rudy said this the other day in the comments, “Saunders is projected as a low K pitcher with around 5.00 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. His 3.6 K/9 IP and 1.6 K/BB ratios are AWFUL. The only real change from his performance last year is that he’s getting lucky with balls that are in play - it’s .240 instead of an expected .300.” And that’s me quoting Rudy!

Billy Butler - I’m gonna pull a Willie Randolph and say it’s racist if people still have Butler on their team. If he were black or Isiah Thomas or Herm Edwards, he would not be on your team. And that’s egregious! So let’s all get along and drop Butler. Now doesn’t that feel good?

Jon Lester threw a no hitter against the Kansas City Royals yesterday (in case you were in a cave and didn’t hear). That goes to show you what getting rid of a locker room cancer can do for a team. Going forward, I see nothing remarkable from Lester. Just one of those things that happens. If you decide he needs to be on your team because you’re a sucker for feel-good stories, you should expect to take a hit on WHIP. It’s not just the walks, he gives up hits by the truckload, as well. Let someone else grab Lester and be the martyr. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Jake Peavy - Jake Peavy is going on the DL with a bad elbow. Padre fans moan, “Why couldn’t it have been ANY of our hitters….well, except A-Gonz.” Don’t panic on Peavy; he’s been on the DL before. You’re not going to get good value for him anyway.

Albert Pujols - Pujols hit 2 HRs in Petco. Impressive. Ryan Ludwick hit a HR and a double. Impressive and a bit more surprising. Cesar Izturis hit a homerun in Petco. Did they build another shorter fence for the game like they did in the Astrodome for the Bad News Bears?

Aramis Ramirez - If you can somehow trade a hot starter (Volquez!) for him, do it. Aram’s the quietest .300/35/100 guy in recent memory.

Geovany Soto - Soto’s done everything else, why wouldn’t he get an inside the park in under 17 seconds? Why? No reason, so he did.

Josh Hamilton - Now Josh Hamilton lets his bat say crack.

Joe Borowski - How anxious are the Indians for Blowrowski to return? The Indians said they want him to only throw one inning in the minors. I’m sure Borowski’s fantasy owners are just anxious.

Adam Dunn - Dunn hit another home run. If he hits in 8 straight, the Reds owner promised he’ll let Dunn bring his pet blue ox, Babe, into the clubhouse.

Frank Thomas - Frank Thomas hit 2 HRs. More amazingly, he made it around the bases twice.

Alex Rodriguez - Looks ready to return on Tuesday. Looks like Eric Karabell’s sister, Stephania Bell’s prediction that Arod will be out until the All-Star break might be a bit wrong.

Brett Myers - In The Bank, Punchy would’ve gave up at least three more runs against the Nats. If Myerly were a word, it would mean struggling.

Shawn Hill - He’s going to be skipped because of elbow soreness. I said he’d be very usable when pitching, I never said he’d stay healthy.

Max Scherzer - If Doug Davis were returning from a suspension because he had drank a quart of Popov and urinated in the Chase Field pool, then I’d say Scherzer might hold his rotation spot, but Davis is returning from cancer. I mean, c’mon, it’s The Big C. That’s some feel-good shizz. BTW, Big week for cancer survivors.

Howie Kendrick - Word on the Streets of Bobby Grichville, Kendrick is going to need at least another week.  I’m not a huge fan of him when he’s healthy and it’s beginning to seem like he may never be healthy.

(NOTE FROM GREY: Last week I sent out feelers to the top baseball team blogs to see if they would be generous enough to write a quick preview for their favorite team. So over the course of the next two weeks, mixed in with your daily fantasy info, you will get some of the most astute, in-depth coverage of teams around the major leagues for the upcoming 2008 season from the people that know these teams best. Each post will include a link to their site, please take time to visit these bloggers’ sites, because these posts are truly the tip of the iceberg for their team knowledge. Now enjoy the 2008 Boston Red Sox preview.)

If you had asked me a month ago, did I think the Boston Red Sox could win a World Series again in 2008, I probably would have said yes. And why not? The Sox kept the core of the 2007 World Championship Team (unlike 2004, when Pedro, Johnny Damon and Derek Lowe were allowed to leave…) and did not keep themselves so crazy busy running around in the off-season that they are exhausted (OK, Queer Eye for the Straight Guy WAS semi-amusing…) and, with the exception of some of the starting rotation being a little older (Tim Wakefield and Curt Schilling are both 41 years old) it is basically the same team (Doug Mirabelli notwithstanding…)And then all hell breaks loose–and Curt Schilling is out at least until the All-Star Break, if not forever, Josh Beckett throws a warm up pitch last weekend and comes up lame, Coco Crisp hasn’t played in nearly two weeks because of a groin injury, and Julio Lugo just started playing after missing more than a week with back problems of his own…

And yes, most of these are normal occurrences that happen during the spring, and if the Sox had another 2 weeks of Spring Training, like everyone else (except for Oakland) it probably would not have the same urgency. But since the Sox are looking at a 17-hour plane ride this Wednesday, plus playing their 1st two games of the 2008 campaign a little more than a week from now, its a huge deal, especially the Josh Beckett injury. Fortunately, he has started a rehab program to get him back into the rotation as soon as possible. Also, with the beginning of the season structured as it is, the Sox can go with a starting rotation of 4 for some time…hopefully enough time to get Josh back 100%.

That being said, here are my thoughts with regard to the 2008 version of the Boston Red Sox:

Needs to Improve: JD Drew, Julio Lugo, Coco Crisp, and Manny Ramirez: JD Drew (not including the Grand Slam in the post season) and Julio Lugo were abysmal last year. Yes, Drew managed to stay healthy (relatively speaking) and he is a very good right fielder (sorry, Trot), but Julio Lugo is even worse than advertised (19 errors, .968 fielding % and a 237 BA with 8 homers). Supposedly he had some sort of flu-thing going in the off-season in 2006 that caused his downturn in ‘07–we’ll see. Coco has never really lived up to the hitting hype he had with Cleveland, although he did make some spectacular plays in CF. Manny, coming off one of the worst seasons of his career (.296 with 20 homers), is supposedly all focused and coming off the best off-season training ever.

Can they repeat: Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, Mike Lowell, Hideki Okajima, and Josh Beckett: Everyone knows the story about Dustin Pedroia–Horribly awful in April (batting .179, and everyone is screaming for his head) he then goes on the a hot streak for the rest of the year, (.317 with 8 homers) including the post season (where he played with a broken hamate bone in his hand) and wins Rookie of the Year. Kevin Youkilis, his 1st year all year at 1st base, breaks the record for error-less games at 1st, and wins his 1st Golden Glove, also has his best year at the plate (.288 with 16 homers), Mike Lowell, (can you believe he was the “take him or you can’t have Josh Beckett” guy?) ANOTHER career season with 120 RBI’s and a .324 BA.

Then we have Josh Beckett (20-7, 3.27 ERA), the only 20 game winner in all of MLB last year (and the only 20 win season of his career), should have started the All-Star Game, and you always felt surprised when he was on the mound and the Sox lost–he was as much of a lock as anyone could be in baseball…except for Okajima. Everyone thought the Sox signed this guy to keep Daisuke Matsuzaka company! He ends up surpassing Daisuke, going 3-2 with 2.22 ERA–and completely baffling hitters with his odd delivery…

Can they maintain: Jacoby Ellsbury, Big Papi, Jon Lester, Tim Wakefield, Mike Timlin, and Jonathan Papelbon: Jacoby Ellsbury only played 33 regular season games with the Red Sox in 2007–and managed a .353 BA, 3 homers, and to steal 9 bases–he then gets into 7 games in the post season when Coco Crisp became a black sucking hole in the batting order, and proceeds to hit .360 on the big stage. He can’t possibly sustain THOSE kinds of numbers over 162+ games in a full season–can he?

Only Big Papi can hit .332 with 35 homers and be considered to have a “off year”. Dealing with the pain of a bad knee pretty much all season, David Ortiz hopes to put up more Papi-like monster numbers this year, as he is 100% recovered from him off-season knee surgery… Jon Lester, a year removed from his cancer ordeal, and winner of Game 4 of the 2007 World Series, Jon has said he has more strength and focus this year, and wants everyone to forget he is “the guy who had cancer”. He has a 4-0 season last year; with some flashes of brilliance. If he can reduce the “nibbling” around the plate, punish the strike zone, and stop getting himself into the high pitch counts, he will be better than just a #5 starter…

Everyone forgets that Tim Wakefield was kicking some serious butt last year before being felled with shoulder issues that kept him off the post season roster. Tying his highest win total (17) Wake chews up innings–and last year was no exception. He started 31 games and threw 189+ innings in 2007. Now that his shoulder issues are behind him, I expect Wake will give the Sox exactly what he always does–and anchor in the rotation–and 12-15 wins–and about 200 innings…Mike Timlin just turned 42, is going into his 6th year with the Sox, says this is his last year, and has made more than 1000 appearances. This guy has NOTHING left to prove. And while he always seems to let that inherited runner score, there has been many times when he has been on that mound, and you just KNEW no batter was going anywhere–except back to the dugout…

Speaking of keeping people in the dugout, is it possible Jonathan Papelbon can get BETTER? Everyone was so sure he would be in the starting rotation at the beginning of last year, until he wasn’t. And being careful with him actually worked, and he excelled in 2007, when he had 37 saves and a minuscule 1.85 ERA…and this year he has added a 3 pitch, a slider to his repertoire…

The Wild Cards: Curt Schilling, Manny Delcarmen, Clay Buchholz: Will Curt pitch ever again? He is on the infamous “rest and rehab plan” and only time will tell if it was the way to go. Manny Delcarmen has flashes of brilliance, and some say, some of the best pure stuff in the bullpen. If he can he harness that, he will be a force to be reckoned with. Clay Buchholz was shut down at the end of 2007 with shoulder fatigue–but in the off-season he added 10 lbs. of muscle and trained to be able to handle a full season of pitching. Can he be the phenom everyone hopes he can be?

Players in a class of their own: Jason Varitek: ‘Tek will never be a force at the plate (.255 with 17 homers in 2007. But behind the plate is entirely different story. His preparation and attention to detail has earned him the respect of pitchers, catchers and players all over major league baseball. No one is better than handling a staff mixed with veterans and rookies alike–NO ONE…without him, Sox don’t win–nuff said.

Everyone else: The mix of bench players (Alex Cora, Sean Casey, Kevin Cash, et al) and the bullpen guys (Kyle Snyder, Julian Tavarez, Javier Lopez, et al), will play a huge part in how rested, loose and focused the rest of team is. The backup guys need to get it done as well, whether its giving rest to a player in need of a day, or stepping up when someone goes down with an injury.

Making predictions with regard to how teams end up when its all over is usually not my thing–162 games is a LONG time. Anything and everything can happen–and usually does. Despite that, I do think the Sox will be in the mix again come the post-season. But there are a lot of very good teams out there (Cleveland, Tigers, etc) so by no means do I feel its a forgone conclusion the Sox will get the World Series.

But I am hoping…

Christine
Boston Red Thoughts
Red Sox Commentary from a Red-Headed Boston Fan in Yankeeland