Fantasy Baseball Advice

Gone over the catchers, 1st basemen, 2nd basemen, shortstops and 3rd basemen.  Guess what’s next!  The title might have gave it away.  With the top 20 outfielders a pattern emerges.  Steroids can be tested for, but Red Bull can’t.  It was the summer of speed and somewhere Ron LeFlore smiles.  Since outfield is a deep position, I think I’m going to turn this one to 40.  Those will be here on Thursday.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 outfielders for 2009 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:

1. Carl Crawford – For four years, Crawford was featured prominently in the top of the preseason rankings for outfielders, and, in 2009, he finally fulfilled that promise by ranking first overall at the end of the season.  Wouldn’t you know it, last year was not one of those top preseason ranking years.  After an abysmal 2008, Crawford’s stock did a Triple Lindy coming into 2009.  Then he exploded for 21 steals in May and he looked like he might surpass Lou Brock’s career total by August.  Unfortunately, he slowed down in the 2nd half.  Let’s hope it wasn’t his knee shouting expletives at the artificial turf.  Preseason Rank #10, 2009 Projections:  85/15/80/.300/45, Final Numbers:  96/15/68/.305/60

2. Jacoby Ellsbury – Hamilton-Burrishly, Ellsbury and Crawford dueled during the regular season to see who would steal more bases, Ellsbury won the battle, but Crawford the war.  On a sidenote, not such a great sign that the top two outfielders gave a majority of value with the steal.  Where’s the 40 homer outfielders?  There were none.  Not even Adam Dunn.  That’s something that will need to be addressed in its own post during the offseason.  Seems like something for December Grey.  Preseason Rank #16, 2009 Projections:  110/10/60/.285/40, Final Numbers:  94/8/60/.301/70

3. Ryan Braun – I said this the other day when talking about Evan Longoria, but it applies here, as well.  Braun may not have been a disappointment per se, but eff “per se” in its Frenchy-sounding goolie.  I wanted 40 homers from Braun!  Preseason Rank #2, 2009 Projections:  100/40/110/.280/15, Final Numbers:  113/32/114/.320/20

4. Matt Kemp – Here’s what I said last January, “I not only bought into the Matt Kemp hype, I rolled it up in decorative sugar and began to sell it at a local bake sale.  You want someone in the fourth round in 2009 that could be a first or second rounder in 2010?  Matt Kemp’s your man, man.  He’s the future, kids.”  And that’s me quoting me!  And me was right.  Next year, I’m taking Kemp in the 1st round and I’m going to like it.  Preseason Rank #11, 2009 Projections:  95/24/80/.295/30, Final Numbers:  97/26/101/.297/34

5. Ichiro Suzuki – The average is great, the steals are okay, the homers are bleh.  Another Ichiro year.  Preseason Rank #12, 2009 Projections:  110/7/50/.315/35, Final Numbers:  88/11/46/.352/26

6. Matt Holliday – Did it help his RBIs to bat behind Pujols?  Probably.  Maybe a few more homers than if he stayed with the A’s?  Yup, but as you see from my preseason projections he was pretty much in line with what I thought he’d do.  He was scorching hot when he went from the A’s to the Cards.  I believe that he would’ve been hot in the 2nd half no matter where he played.  Next year when people are saying he’ll return to 30 homers, I’m going to say again he’s a 25 home run hitter.  Unless he signs with the Rockies or the Yankees.  Preseason Rank #5, 2009 Projections:  90/22/105/.310/12, Final Numbers:  94/24/109/.313/14

7. Bobby Abreu – Who would’ve put three Angels in the top 20 in the beginning of the year?  Gene Autry’s Ghost, perhaps.  But not many people.  I thought Abreu would steal a bit more on the Angels, but I thought the years of 30 steals were long gone.  Preseason Rank #25, 2009 Projections:  110/17/100/.300/20, Final Numbers:  96/15/103/.293/30

8. Michael Bourn – Speed is definitely in a renaissance.  It’s like the go-go 80s with Rock Raines sniffing coke off of the dashboard of Keith Hernandez’s El Dorado.  All we need now is for Okrent to send out the standings in the mail.  Makes you wonder if speed would’ve ever left the scene if it wasn’t for steroids.  Preseason Rank #66, 2009 Projections:  70/4/30/.240/40, Final Numbers:  97/3/35/.285/61

9. Adam Lind – I’ve already talked a bit about my thoughts on Lind for 2010.  Right now, we’re talking about 2009, ya’ll.  He’ll be the magical 27 years old in 2010.  Shoot, we’re talking about 2009.  Um, he had a good year.  Yeah, that’s the ticket.  (There will be more to come!)  Preseason Rank #61, 2009 Projections:  65/22/85/.275/3, Final Numbers:  93/35/114/.305/1

10. Jayson Werth – Hopefully you didn’t abandon ship when he got off to a rocky April start (2 homers, 10 RBIs).  After that, Werth ended up having a very consistent season, hitting at least 6 homers every month.  Then he chucked in 5 steals in four games of October because he obviously owned himself in a H2H league.  Preseason Rank #41, 2009 Projections:  95/17/70/.270/17, Final Numbers:  98/36/99/.268/20

11. Jason Bay – Now for the inconsistent Jason.  He hit 19 of his homers in two months of the season (May and August).  In July, he hit 1 homer and drove in only 5 runs.  On the bright side, he must’ve realized he was starring in a donkey show with him being the donkey because he contributed 6 steals in July.  Preseason Rank #17, 2009 Projections:  100/32/110/.280/10, Final Numbers:  103/36/119/.267/13

12. Justin Upton – I see your love for B.J. and I raise you a 20/20/.300 season.  Preseason Rank #48, 2009 Projections:  70/20/70/.260/7, Final Numbers:  84/26/86/.300/20

13. Kendry Morales – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen post. Final Numbers:

14. Ben Zobrist – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen post.  Final Numbers:

15. Shin-Soo Choo – I wonder if there’s a fantasy baseball blogger in Korea writing Torii Hunter is the American Shin-Soo Choo.  Things that make you say hmm…  Preseason Rank #51, 2009 Projections:  70/16/70/.280/11, Final Numbers:  87/20/86/.300/21

16. Denard Span – Did I underestimate Denard Dawg’s relevance in the beginning of the season?  I don’t think so, since my projections were pretty spot-on.  So why did I rank him 53rd?  Because I didn’t realize how few homers would come out of the outfield in 2009.  You could’ve found 27 guys who contributed 20 steals, but how many guys hit 30 homers?  11 guys.  To be continued… Preseason Rank #53, 2009 Projections:  90/8/60/.285/20, Final Numbers:  97/8/68/.311/23

17. Torii Hunter – On July 3rd, I told you to sell Hunter when he was at 17/13.  In the last three months, he went 5/5.  Cust kayin’.  Preseason Rank #30, 2009 Projections:  85/24/85/.275/17, Final Numbers:  74/22/90/.299/18

18. Nyjer Morgan – Let’s reenact the day Nyjer was traded from the Pirates.  “Nyjer, you’ve been traded.”  A five minute dance, followed by ten minutes of celebratory hoots and hollers as he lets everyone know how glad he is to be out of the Pirates organization.  “Nyjer, you’re going to the Nats.”  Nyjer cries.  Then he devotes himself to proving the Pirates wrong as he hits .351 with the Nats and steals 24 bases in 49 games.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  74/3/39/.307/42

19. Johnny Damon – The Yankees figured out a way to reverse the effects of all of their aging players.  Have them play in a Little League field.  Preseason Rank #26, 2009 Projections:  105/15/70/.285/20, Final Numbers:  107/24/82/.282/12

20. Shane Victorino – Wait, Denard Dawg was supposed to be emulating Victorino.  Teacher, student… Not student, teacher.  Not student, teacher!  Victorino’s season worries me a bit because he did much better last year in 50 less at-bats.  In 620 ABs in 2009, his stats should look better.  I’ve already had my love of Sparkakis desecrated this year.  Not you too, Victorino… Please.   Preseason Rank #15, 2009 Projections:  100/15/60/.285/35, Final Numbers:  102/10/62/.292/25

With 2 HRs yesterday, Adam Lind now has 36/11/43/.313 on the year.  I know, Cody Ross has looked good for stretches.   Even Aaron Rowand has had a week or two here and there.  But why are people asking me if Adam Lind should be sold off or worse dropped?  You don’t want 85/27/100/.285?  I know he was as boring as dog balls for the month of May.  Well, he’s batting near-.500 in June.  He’s shoved into the middle of the Blue Jays lineup like a Jenga piece no one will touch.  Heart. Of. The. Lineup.  Dear Razzball reader, let’s look at his OBP, shall we?  He had a .380 OBP in 1500+ ABs in the minors and a .377 OBP so far this year.  In the minors, he had a .318 average, he has a .313 average this year.  He has power potential AND can hit for average.  (Caps for emphasis and the hyperopic.)  Fastballs?  He likes them.  Breaking balls?  Don’t bother him.  Sure, it took him until 25 to develop into a major leaguer, but so what?  What were you doing at 25?  I was trying to figure what I wanted to do at 26.  Lind’s biggest drawback, he can’t field.  Holy heffin’ hey in the screw hole, that doesn’t matter to us.  Lind’s good, don’t be scared.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Josh Hamilton – Out 4-6 weeks with an abdominal tear.  His owners out 4-6 weeks with tears.

Jose Valverde – Fist pumps could be back as early as this weekend.  Trade Hawkins!  Joking.  Unless you can… No, that’s wrong.  But really what is right without someone doing wrong?  Nietzsche!

C.J. Wilson – I was remiss in leaving him off yesterday’s roundup.  Frank² could be headed to the DL again with shoulder soreness.  Wilson should be owned in all leagues.

Brandon McCarthy – Headed to the DL with a stress fracture of shoulder.  Votto feels for him, he has a stress fracture of his melon.

Chris Davis – 0-for-3, 3 Ks yesterday.  Has 87 Ks in 191 ABs.  Wow.  Listen to this from Matthew Berry, “I’m sticking with Davis.  Look, you didn’t draft him for his batting average anyway, and he is hitting for power with 12 home runs…. Keep in mind he was a career .302 hitter in the minors.”  Oh, okay.  Luckily, he only has two sides of his mouth.  If that is indeed his mouth he’s using.

Jason Marquis – 6 2/3 IP, 2 ER.  Leads the NL in Wins.  Yup, makes sense.

Torii Hunter – Sidelined with a nagging groin.  I had one of those when I was 19.  I almost went blind because of it.  Sorry, I hate to work blue.  Pun intended.

Chris Iannetta – Due back on Tuesday.  If you’re nursing some schmohawk catcher and Iannetta’s on waivers, act like ya know, MC Lyte.

Clint Barmes – Similar to Hamilton, he’s on a tear.  Only the good kind.  He’s 13-for-31 with a homer and 7 RBIs in his last 7 games.

Garrett Atkins – He’s not even starting anymore.

Randy Johnson - Didn’t he just pitch?  Nice, Giants.  Throw your 45-year-old on short rest.  What, are they trying to get out of an innings clause or something?

Armando Galarraga – 6 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 11 baserunners vs. the White Sox, a team that has a .247 average against righties.  I’m not sure if anyone’s holding out hope Galarraga’s going to be good again like last year, well, he’s not.

Jeremy Bonderman – 4 IP, 6 ER and now the White Sox are .250 against righties.

Miguel Cabrera – Returned and went 0-for-7 in the doubleheader.  Hey, at least he’s back.  I have Jose Reyes and Carlos Quentin playing spades on my DL.

Alexei Ramirez - 5-for-9 with one homer in the doubleheader and now batting .261.  BTW, Alfonso Soriano hit .284 in April, Alexei hit .214.  Soriano hit .216 in May, Alexei hit .281.  Who will have the conch shell in June?

Gordon Beckham – 0 for his first 13 ABs.  Beckham, you’re proving Ozzie right.

Jose Contretras – One hit over eight innings as he returned from the minors, though for him it should be called the seniors.  He could very well get shelled in his next start.

Chipper Jones – HR yesterday, three in two days.  So this is why people own him… Cool, now when do I trade him?  When he sneezes?  Hiccups?  Someone, throw me a bone.

Nick Stavinoha – Went 0-for-4 wearing Pujols’s jersey.

Andy Sonnanstine – 7 IP, 5 ER.  Jeff Niemann stole his juice.

Sean West – 8 IP, 0 ER. I know, woo-hoo.  I looked at his 60 walks in 100 2/3 innings in Double A, his 22 walks in 42 2/3 innings in Triple A and I vomited on my wall and it spelled out, “Don’t pickup.”

Johnny Damon – 12th homer yesterday.  What’s his over/under set at for homers?  24?  I’m taking the over.  By 2.  Who wants some action?

Randy Choate – Maddon brought Choate into the 8th inning of a 4-3 game yesterday.  A game the Rays were losing.

Andrew McCutchen – 4-for-7 with 2 triples, batting leadoff as the unknown soldyjer’s light burns in the two hole.  McCutchen’s batting .400; somebody reach behind the Häagen-Dazs and take Ted Williams’s brain out of the freezer, he’s gonna wanna see this!  I’d sell McCutchen right now if you don’t need speed.

Josh Outman – 6 IP, 3 ER and has an ERA of 3.17.  I swear to you, he’s not this good, but he gets the Giants next time out.  All aboard!

Andrew Bailey – 2 days, 2 saves.  He’s the closer, guys.  Stop owning Ziegler, people in your league are starting to wonder if you’ve abandoned your team.

Kevin Kouzmanoff – 2-for-4 yesterday with 4 RBIs.  A homer the day before.  I’m not saying he’s God’s gift to cornermen, but as teams pitch around A-Gonz, Kouz could pick up some scraps.

David Ortiz – His doctor prescribed eyedrops to hopefully help with his hitting.  Who’s his optometrist, Victor Conte?

Well, that didn’t take long.  Rickie Weeks has swine flu in the wrist.  Anything negative health-wise wouldn’t surprise me with Rickie Weeks.  “Coach, Weeks got the black plague.”  “Wasn’t that only spread by rats 600 years ago?”  “Don’t know, Coach.  After Friday’s game, he was with some old broad who had snaggle teeth.  Might’ve been that.”  I wouldn’t be surprised to see this force Weeks to the DL then miss two months of the season because that’s what Weeks do.  It would be too convenient for Bill Hall to go to 2nd and Gamel to fill-in at third.  But offensively it would make more sense than the blahtoon of Counsell and Iribarren.  Anyway, here’s what I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Chris Carpenter – Returning on Wednesday.  I don’t think he gets to the All-Star Break healthy.  If you have Carpenter, you might think about hammering out a deal.  (<–Pun!)

Koji Uehara – 5 IP, 4 ER.  I still believe he’ll be better going forward than most doodes that are on waivers.

Andy Sonnanstine – 5 2/3 IP, 5 ER.  As you probably heard by now, Sonnanstine had to bat 3rd for Longoria because Maddon was wearing his Monsters vs. Aliens 3-D glasses instead of his prescription ones when he made out the lineup card.  So my question is, how long do you think Maddon contemplated just pitching Longoria to keep him in the lineup?

Armando Galarraga – 2/3 IP, 5 ER.   A guy I’d pass over for Koji.  Give him a Stiff-Armando off your team.

Ben Francisco – 2 HRs.  Be(e)n quite the disappointment.  Might be the start of a hot streak though.

Luke Hochevar – 3 1/3 IP, 3 ER.  Walks got to Luke HocheVarErich early as he gave way to the bullpen, including Ravishing Ron Mahay.

Brian Roberts – 4 steals this weekend.  Obviously the spark he needed was being in Friday’s Buy/Sell.  So what’s your excuse Lester?

Pat Burrell – To the DL.  Some fantasy owner’s voodoo doll finally worked.

Matt Holliday – 4-for-4, raising his average to .267, meanwhile, after an 0-for-12 weekend, Cust falls to .262.  Now if Ryan Theriot would return Alexei’s eternal soul, everything will be dandy.

Trevor Cahill – 2 1/3 IP, 7 ER.  You know when I might like this guy?  2010.

Brad Ziegler – 2 IP.  He’s a middle reliever now, in case anyone’s holding out hope…. Or hoping for holds.

Josh Hamilton – 0-for-3 then left the game with a mild groin strain.  This is much better than the extra hot groin strain.

Jordan Zimmermann – 5 IP, 5 ER, 6.35 ERA on the year.  How about dem rookie pitchers?!  (Way off topic, but I had SportsCenter on in the background when I was writing this up and I think Magic Johnson said Kobe didn’t need penetration because he was busy getting his teammates off.  Whoa… Magic.  Family show!)

Chan Ho Park – 1 1/3 IP, 5 ER.  Give Happ the ball!  When I say Happ, you say “Hochevar.”  Hmm… Damn you, subconscious.

Johnny Damon – Hit a game-winning homer yesterday (as if no one heard) and now has 10 homers.  I think he can hit 22 homers on the year and still have lots of value, but he’s not going to hit 35 homers.  The time to sell is… wait for it… here it comes… you know what it’s going to be anyway… but you still want to hear it… so here it is… coming right after this ellipsis… wait, what was I saying… was this about Star Trek?  I saw it and liked it, but “Great?”  Not really.  Oh, and sell Damon now.

Kevin Slowey – 7 2/3 IP, 2 ER.  Probably the number one reason why if I trust a pitcher, I start them just about every time out.  When you start picking and choosing, you get Slowey for three runs in three innings and miss two earned over almost eight innings.

Gavin Floyd – 5 IP, 6 ER.  And this is why I don’t own pitchers who I don’t trust.  I wouldn’t want to start Floyd anywhere.

Aaron Hill – Another homer to bring his total to 11.  I wouldn’t sell him and could see him getting to 30 homers.  Zoinks!

Clayton Kershaw – 7 IP, 1 ER and 1 hit.  I could point you in the direction of Slowey and say the same applies.  And it does.  What I’ll add is, Kershaw needs to cut his walks otherwise he’ll hardly ever see the 7th inning.  Look at yesterday’s game as an example.  He gave up only one hit and he only made it to the 7th.  Pitch Economy 101 as taught by a former employee of AIG…

Chris Coghlan – If anyone’s paying attention to this kinda of stuff (and my guess is everyone is), Coghlan’s batting .167 and sat yesterday.

Juan Pierre – 3-for-5.  Hey, should I sell him high? First of all, random italicized voice, who’s buying a guy who’s on borrowed playing time?  Second, why not just collect the 25 steals he’s going to get in the next month and a half and be done with him?  Rhetorical!

Rich Harden – 6 IP, 4 ER.  Someone asked a very legitimate question about Harden on Friday, “I figured (Harden would be) either dominant or injured…I didn’t expect healthy and mediocre.”  Okay, maybe not a question, per se, but it brings up an interesting point.  Then commenter, Mark, answered with a little taste of brilliance, “(Harden) threw a ton of sliders last year, and this year dropped back to his 2007 level.  He appears to be throwing his changeup more than ever.  Velocity looks pretty good on everything….his fastball’s a good bit slower than it was 2 years ago but no slower than last year.  Here’s the biggie…he’s lost a ton of movement on his slider, particularly along the vertical axis.”  Also, Mark went on to notice that Harden may not be throwing his splitter at all anymore.   This could be the reasoning behind Harden’s mediocrity.  Or not.  But it’s interesting, nevertheless.

David Aardsma – Got the Win yesterday and will get the majority of the saves while Morrow tries to find what he’s looking for where the streets have no names.

Justin Masterson – 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER.  Throw out two terrible starts against the Indians and the Rays and he’d be sitting on a very pretty record right now.

David Wright – From what I hear from Joe Morgan, Wright took a long slide yesterday when he was caught stealing.  A long slide.  A real long slide.  See, the problem was the slide was very long.  Too long of a slide.  Joe Morgan sounded like Milli Vanilli when they were caught lipsynching or Raymond Babbitt at the blackjack table.  Say it once, Joe.  We’ll figure it out.

Brad Lidge – Got the save, but, check this, he wasn’t brought into a save situation until after two lefties faced some other doode.  Lidge ain’t off the ledge yet…

Darren O’Day – Got the save yesterday but only because C.J. Wilson got the save the previous two days.  Wilson’s still the fill-in.  I would own Wilson in just about every league except NL-Only ones, cuz then your leaguemates will just mock you.

Shane Robinson/Nick Stavinoha – If you know who either of these two guys are, you have a Willie McGee bobble head and you’re halfway through writing a book titled, “Whiteyball,” that will definitively answer all those crazy Moneyball people.

Now it’s time for everyone’s favorite game, Fantasy Baseball, Fun With Numbers.  Ding, ding, ding… Bassoon… Triangle!  Triangle!  Triangle!  Cow bell!  More cow bell!  One last ding.  In today’s installment of Fantasy Baseball, Fun With Numbers, we’re going to look at some outfielders and try to figure out if maybe the numbers tell a different story than their names tell.  Anyway, here’s the latest in Fantasy Baseball, Fun With Numbers:

Player A – Last season, 95/17/71/.303/29
Player B – Last season, 112/22/66/.280/12

Player A is Johnny Damon, Player B is Curtis Granderson

Player A – In 362 at-bats Pre-All Star, 50/4/39/.285/23
Player B – In 379 at-bats Pre-All Star, 50/5/31/.253/21

Player A is Alex Rios, Player B is Carlos Gomez

Player A – In 248 at-bats Post-All Star, 36/9/39/.278/9
Player B – In 268 at-bats Post-All Star, 46/9/25/.299/13

Player A is Krispie Young, Player B is Matt Kemp.

Player A – In 218 at-bats Post-All Star, 42/9/36/.335/3
Player B – In 198 at-bats Post-All Star, 46/10/37/.288/3

Player A is Andre Ethier, Player B is Mark DeRosa

Player A – In 557 at-bats last year, 66/15/84/.293/7
Player B – In 575 at-bats last year, 80/10/69/.290/14

Player A is Garrett Anderson, Player B is Delmon Young

Player A – In 356 at-bats last year, 52/15/42/.250/1
Player B – In 340 at-bats last year, 53/20/55/.235/2

Player A is Justin Upton, Player B is Jim Edmonds.  This is not an endorsement of Jim Edmonds, but a warning on Upton.

Player A – In 502 at-bats last year, 74/17/61/.249/6
Player B – In 461 at-bats last year, 59/22/73/.260/6

Player A is Jeremy Hermida, Player B is Cody Ross

Player A – In 221 at-bats Post-All Star, 30/7/29/.299/11
Player B – In 231 at-bats Post-All Star, 38/4/20/.290/15

Player A is Lastings Milledge, Player B is Jacoby Ellsbury

Player A – In 247 at-bats Post-All Star, 38/11/35/.296/2
Player B – In 251 at-bats Post-All Star, 43/9/29/.311/14

Player A is Josh Hamilton, Player B is Shane Victorino… VICTORINO!

After the top 20 outfielders for 2009 fantasy baseball, there’s so many more outfielders to rank I need to turn this sucka to 40.  This is after already going over all of our other 2009 fantasy baseball rankings.  Since this is such a deep position, this list of 2009 outfielders could go to 60.  Crazy, right?  That’s not crazy as in crazy, but crazy as in, “Huh.  Um.  Okay.”  When I’m done with all of the top 20 and top 40 lists, I’m going to do a top 100 and top 300 overall.  That’s right, ya’ll; wonderful just gave birth to awesome.  Now before we get into our top 40 outfielder list, here’s our 2009 Fantasy Baseball Player Rater and our list of all the players with multiple position eligibility.  Anyway, here’s the top 40 outfielders for 2009 fantasy baseball:

21. Corey Hart – This is a continuation of the last tier in the top 20 outfielders post that started at Rios.  This tier ends here.  Flameout, that’s what Hart was towards the end of 2008 and his approach at the plate says this is exactly what we should be expecting.  Hart is susceptible to occasional droughts of unusability (SAT Word!), but he has a hair of upside so he ended up in this tier.  2009 Projections:  75/22/80/.275/20

22. Vladimir Guerrero -  This is a new tier.  This tier goes all the way down to Double I.  I call this tier, “You know what you’re getting and don’t expect any upside in this tier.  They are what they are.”   Sadly, Vladdy got old real fast.  He went from a 40/20 Clemente to a 27/5 Dawson in a two year time period.  2009 Projections:  85/27/100/.310/5

23. Adam Dunn -  40 home runs.  Every year.   Like clockwork.  A big, roly-poly clock with a lack of motivation according to J.P. Ricciardi.  Dunn’s average was a bit lower than it should’ve been for his career BABIP, but that’s like saying your crap smells a bit worse when you eat Thai food.  2009 Projections:  80/40/85/.245/5

24. Magglio Ordonez – I haven’t liked Mags since ‘02.  I’m just not a fan of guys that max out under 30 HRs and have no speed.  There’s some argument to made that he’s better than Vladdy at this point, but I’m not here to make arguments for guys I don’t like.   2009 Projections:  85/24/105/.310/3

25. Bobby Abreu – At some point Abreu’s going to be a 15/15 guy with the downside of 12/12.  You really don’t want to be the last one to leave and shut off the lights on the Abreu 20/20 party.  2009 Projections:  110/17/100/.300/20

26. Johnny Damon – He got a bit lucky last year with his numbers.  He’s not quite a .300 hitter.  From there, you could just read what I wrote for Abreu then subtract a bit of power and it’s Damon.  He’s a 17/20 guy just as easily as he’s a 12/17 guy or as I like to call him, Johnny DeJesus.  2009 Projections:  105/15/70/.285/20

27. Jermaine Dye – Dye is Vladdy minus thirty points on average and a bit more power.  There’s a time and a fantasy team for Dye.  But what fun is a 2nd outfielder with no upside? Not a not a not a, not a damn thing.   What’s Duke Ellington without that swing?  2009 Projections:  80/30/90/.275/3

28. Raul Ibanez – A big part of me wanted to put Ibanez in the below tier with Burrell, but his move to the Phillies lineup and that ballpark has me a bit more excited, i.e., he was yawnstipating and now he’s only midly so.  2009 Projections:  85/25/110/.290/3

29. Vernon Wells – If owning Vernon Wells causes you to have an erection for longer than 15 minutes, you might want to seek a doctor.  2009 Projections:  85/24/95/.280/7

30. Torii Hunter – His HRs peaked at 31 in ‘06 and there’s no reason to think he’s going to get above that number.  He’s Abreu with less stability on average and I’s instead of a Y.  2009 Projections:  85/24/85/.275/17

31. Jay Bruce – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Pence.  This tier I like to call, “They might not do anything but strikeout a lot, but they’re worth the risk.”  When Jay Bruce was called up to the majors, he did a Triple Lindy into the hearts of fantasy owners.  Then people called him a nipple-ringed bust.  Well, don’t let last year scare you away from Jay Bruce in 2009.  2009 Projections:  85/30/90/.280/10

32. Ryan Ludwick – There was some discussion on the Josh Hamilton in 2009 post about Ludwick’s potential.  Rudy said this, “(Ludwick’s) K rate is 27% which is well above (Carlos) Quentin (16%) and (Carlos) Lee (11%). Ludwick’s .299 last year was a fluke (.349 BABIP) – with his swing and miss rate, he’s a better bet for .250 than .300.”  And that’s me quoting Rudy!   2009 Projections:  85/30/100/.275/3

33. Krispie Young – Unlike the Diamondbacks last year, you don’t want Krispie on the same team as Dunn, but as a cheap 25/20 guy Krispie’s got value.   2009 Projections:  80/25/80/.245/20

34. Brad Hawpe – Hawpe’s splits in 2008 against lefties weren’t as dramatic as they were in the past, but even if you want to slot him in only against righties in daily leagues, he’s worth the draft pick.  He’s nothing flashy, but he’s solid without any severe downside.  2009 Projections:  70/30/95/.280

35. Hunter Pence – Leaving the plate from April through June of last year, Pence says, “Make adjustments, stupid!”  In the 2nd half of the season, Pence says, “Now you’re cooking with gas.”  I’m not sure if he is completely done struggling yet, but if Pence was completely out of the woods, would it make a sound?  Yup, a pretty big one.  2009 Projections:  85/28/95/.275/10

36. Pat Burrell – Here we are in another tier.  This tier goes down to Drew.  I call this tier, “You know exactly what you’re getting, and you’re getting less than the last tier where you knew exactly what you were getting.”  You can see why I wanted to place Ibanez in this tier.  Anyway… With Pat Burrell, you get 30 HRs and a .250 average.  2009 Projections:  70/30/85/.250

37. Milton Bradley – With Milton Bradley, you’re getting a headcase that is not going to give you more than 400 ABs.  The great thing about Bradley going the distance (more or less) last year was we were able to see what he’s capable of.  He’s capable of 22 HRs and 5 steals. Um, okay.  2009 Projections:  60/18/75/.290/4

38. J.D. Drew – J.D. Drew, Nomar Garciaparra and Rickie Weeks get onto your crosscountry flight, do you get off?  2009 Projections:  80/22/75/.280/5

39. Carlos Gomez -  Now for the last tier of the top 40 outfielders for 2009.  I call this last tier, “Probably not the 39th thru 41nd most valuable outfielders, but I’m just pointing out some upside guys.”  There’s a chance for 10 HRs and 40 steals with CarGo.  Granted, his average might be tremendously bleh.  I wasn’t crazy about CarGo last year, and I’m not completely sold on him yet, but a sleeper is a sleeper is a sleeper.  I could have wrote Denard Span here instead of Gomez, but he’s not as exciting to me.   2009 Projections:  90/10/60/.260/40

40. Lastings Milledge – At some point early on last year, I said get rid of Milledge.  He’s not ready yet.  He needs more time to season and absorb some of his juices.  Of course, Bowden left him on the grill for those first four months, and, by August, Milledge started to finally cook.  2009 Projections:  75/18/90/.280/20

After the top 40 outfielders for 2009 fantasy baseball, there’s a lot of names, but here’s two that stand out:

Cameron Maybin – I already went over a Maybin 2009 post so I’m not going to belabor the point.  Let me just say, SAGNOF.  Okay, I’ll say one more thing, Ellsbury in 2008.  2009 Projections:  85/5/50/.280/40

Delmon Young – He has only 26 HRs in over 1300 ABs.  Well, this is supposed to be in favor of him so ignore that.  Young is a hot head that hasn’t shown an ounce of potential.  Oops, that’s not positive either.  Um, he’s still only 23.  There, that’s positive!  And he can throw a bat at an ump harder than anyone else.  Shoot, there I go again.  2009 Projections:  70/15/85/.295/15