If you’re at all familiar with management theory, then you’re probably aware generally of the “Peter Principle”. The concept is simple, managers rise to the level of their incompetence. Here’s where you think about your current manager, and snicker. Are you done? Okay, so it’s concept that many of us can relate to, some of us first hand. But what does this have to do with the subject of today’s profile Marlins starter Dillon Peters? Ahhh, his name is Peters? It works right? But perhaps there’s more there. Or maybe I’m overthinking. Yeah, totally overthinking it. Then again, is it possible that Peters has risen to his own level of potential incompetence here in the Bigs? His numbers over the last two years in the minors have been phenomenal, rarely letting up multiple earned runs in a game. In fact over the last two years, across 37 starts between high A and AA, Peters has amassed a 21-9 record with a 2.11 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, .224 BAA, 7.5 K/9, and 1.74 Bb/9. While allowing just 5 balls to leave the park in 191.2 innings. So to say he’s on a great run the last few years is an understatement. Will that continue here in the majors or is he due for a heavy regression? Through Peters first few starts he’s been solid but lucky. I actually intended to profile his start last Tuesday at Philadelphia, but pivoted to Sunday’s turn for the rescheduled home game vs the Brew Crew. I figured in case things went awry in Milwaukee recency bias would win out. Here’s what I saw.Please, blog, may I have some more?
So, where does Mookie Betts go in 2018? That’s what we all want to know, right? That and WHAT TIME IS IT?! Sorry, was listening to Steppin’ To The A.M. I was not listening to Time to Get Ill, however, because I don’t like the Beastie Boys, but it might be more appropriate with The Bettsie Boy, Mookie. Home run distance is a weird thing. Well, maybe not weird, but hard to trust. Yeah, that’s the ticket, said like that Jon Lovitz character. In hindsight, it’s obvious. Mookie had so many Just Enough home runs last year, of course, he’s not hitting as many this year, but I thought there would be enough mitigating factors to lessen Betts’ drop off. He’s young — power still peaking; he’s in a good park — Pesky/Wall; the lineup — oh, that lineup. Didn’t play out that way for power and average. His average is nearly fifty points off of last year, and his power will end likely down about five homers from last year. Not huge? Well, that is around a 15% drop — even after his big game yesterday of 3-for-5, 6 RBIs and his 20th and 21st homer. So, what does all this mean for next year? I think he’s going to be undervalued, and I expect a bounce back of sorts. Likely closer to a 27-homer guy than his 30+ last year, but there’s no way he hits near-.265 as he is right now. He’s hitting as many line drives as last year, hitting the ball harder, in general, and a .267 BABIP. He’s gotta be one of the unluckiest hitters this year. He’s basically hitting line drives up the middle, but a squirrel is knocking it down into a fielder’s glove. Maybe he’s not Mookie Best this year, but I’m not counting out Mookie Ballgame yet. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
There’s nothing more random than September baseball. It’s a time where you throw season stats out the window and ride the hot bat or hot hand. The mystery of a new guy can throw the league off for a few games and you can enjoy that all the way to a championship…or a few FantasyDraft bones. Then there’s the recency of it all. It’s always good to look at the 7 day performance of a given hitting team when trying to pick a pitcher during this time of year. All year, it’s been a known thing: don’t start a pitcher vs the Dodgers. Now? Dodgers have been in a free fall and have the worst wRC+ over the last thirty days. All this to say, this ain’t your mom’s time of year…hrm, not what I meant to say…namely cuz I don’t know what it means so instead I’ll just say over the last seven days, the Orioles have been one of the worst hitting teams in the league with a 53 wRC+ and a monstrous 28.2% K rate during that span heading into their matchup with Estrada last night (Marco was sitting at 3 K thru 2 as of this typing). Why does all this matter? Well, Joe Biagini already got to enjoy the mess that is Baltimore. At Camden Yards on September 1st, Biagini went 7, struck out 10 so there’s a good chance this slide continues for these birds. Keep in mind, this Biagini dream could quickly turn into a nightmare so stay away in cash, children. Good? Good. With that out of the way, lets get on to this. Here’s my Barbara Eden taeks for this Tuesday FantasyDraft slate (walks away humming the I Dream of Jeannie theme song)…
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To anyone from Southeastern Massachusetts my title means something to you. If you’re anything like me it signifies the first time in your life you were severely disappointed. I can still remember packing into my parent’s station wagon with another family my parents were friendly with. We were headed to the “World Famous King Richard’s Faire“. Six year old Ralph couldn’t believe I was headed to THE fair of THE King Richard. I mean he was the best king ever, and here I am headed to his fair! Me, lowly 6 year old Ralph with a golden bowl cut! Welp, much like everything else in life since, it was a massive disappointment. What was supposed to be a day of jousts, knights, kings and princesses, quickly turned into reality. That reality was drunk bikers with swords, mutton, and the inescapable smell of feces and urine. The strangest part is it smelt just as much like urine as it did poop. It was as if the two smells were competing for dominance, each pushing itself to it’s limits but neither overtaking the other. Needless to say I never went back. I could have, but I did better things with my time like drinking or masturbating. What does this have to do with Garrett Richards and his most recent start? Well let’s just say I was excited, only to be disappointed. That’s my big market tease, trust me you’re bound to be disappointed…Please, blog, may I have some more?
Watching Luis Castillo is officially an ASMR trigger. *insert onomatopoeia of satisfied exhale, picks up invisible fork and knife, mimes cutting up satisfied exhale, eats exhale* Do you see how Castillo’s got me? I’m eating satisfied exhales. Can I write the 2018 fantasy baseball sleeper post right now for Luis Castillo? TFW you see Castillo: Insert Oprah’s o face around Gayle King. CASTILLO MAKING ME CRAZY! And not eating sugar for six days isn’t helping. This Whole30 Diet got me like: insert crazy-googly eyes. I got Biggie Smalls eyes right now. *smacks face* Be coherent, Grey! Sorry, about that. Yesterday, Luis Castillo went 8 IP, 1 ER, 4 baserunners, 10 Ks, ERA at 3.12. His surface perfs: 9.9 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 3.40 xFIP, averages 98 MPH, and now I’m lightheaded again. Okay, need to save something for his 2018 sleeper post. As for this year, this was his last start, unless you count Strat-o-Matic starts I’m making with him all winter. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
There’s an old expression in Major League Baseball, “As the sun sets on one Weaver, another rises from its ashes.” I have to say it was rather prophetic to predict the spontaneous combustion of Jered Weaver’s career. Then again, it’s not like there weren’t clear signs that we had reached the end of the line with our most recent Weaver. I mean the man was throwing 67 MPH in his last few starts, or years, but whatever… That brings me to today’s subject, our new shiny Weaver, complete with new car scent! I’m of course alluding to Cardinals rookie phenom Luke Weaver. The 24 year old right-hander got his first taste of the big leagues last year to mixed results. He looked brilliant at times, and caught too much of the plate at others. The issues with Weaver are rarely related to his pitching however. He’s had an inability to stay healthy over the course of his career, never exceeding 120 innings pitched in a season. As for the player himself he has one of the more exciting upsides of any arm in the minors, mixing swinging strikes, with weak contact, and elite control. Since his most recent callup in late August, Weaver has posted back to back starts with 10 Ks and 1 walk, while limiting his opponents to a .224 batting average against. There’s nothing I love more than digging into the start of a player I’ve been touting for a year plus. It’s even better when that player’s twitter handle (@DreamWeava7) has a Boston accent! I’m in LOVE!! Previously Weaver has ranked 48th (pre-season), and 60th in my mid-season, which is lofty praise. As anyone who reads my prospect work will tell you, I discount pitching prospects pretty heavily for fantasy purposes. Enough of the small talk, here’s what I witnessed in Weaver’s Sunday start.Please, blog, may I have some more?
Between Cody Bellinger, Aaron Judge, Rafael Devers, Andrew Benintendi, Ozzie Albies, Amed Rosario, Rhys Hoskins and Yoan Moncada baseball is staying at a Renaissance Hotel. “Is that a Cal Ripken mint rookie card under my pillow and a Beckett Baseball Card Guide in the side table? What a great hotel!” That’s me staying at a baseball-themed Renaissance Hotel. Oh, and this is barely touching a majority of Ralph’s top 100 fantasy baseball prospects. By the way, I Googled top 100 baseball rookies from the preseason, and Baseball America had Dansby Swanson, Josh Bell, Tyler Glasnow, Jharel Cotton, Jose De Leon, Robert Gsellman and Albert Almora in the top 10. (Judge was 12th, Bellinger 19th and Ben Grieve 5th. Okay, not Grieve, but you get the drift.) Rookies are a crapshoot, but baseball ate some beans and is shooting crap! (That sounded better in my head.) Yesterday, Rafael Devers hit his 5th and 6th homers, coming in only his 16th game, as he hits .339. He’s only 20 years old!!! Triple exclamation marks due to sticky keyboard because of Giancarlo, my apologies. If I had the time or motivation, I’d go back to the comments from people who said within three days of Devers’ call-up that he’s overmatched. Yo, I think you might want to hold back your hot takes for a minute. For 2018, Devers or Benintendi? Okay, I’m gonna hold back my own hot takes, but you’re seriously considering the guy who’s only been up for two-plus weeks. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
The injury bug bit HARD this week. Every player on this list is a player whose absence will have huge fantasy implications. The playoffs are right around the corner and the smartest owners will be able to manage their injuries and still come out on top. Use my advice to help take you there. With another six outfielders on the disabled list I’m going to make my outfield recommendations at the bottom of this article.
As always, leave a comment below if you have any league-specific injury questions…Please, blog, may I have some more?
Ozzies sure seem to always be MIs. Oswaldo Arcia must not have been allowed to change his name, he should’ve switched with Orlando. I’m at the waiver wire like this, “Go shopping…Go shopping…Let’s all go shopping…Go shopping…” Ya know what? I’m just gonna leave this here…
I’m at the Albies Square Mall!
I’m at the Albies Square Mall!
I’m at the Albies Square Mall!
I’m at the Albies Square Mall!
You have to love Biz’s way with words. Can only be described as slow and methodical. Ozzie Albies can best be described as mini-Altuve. What’s he a dwarf? You little person, Ozzie Albies Square Mall? He has a ton of speed (70 score), and makes contact, while his power has made serious gains. Or GAINZ, according to Endorphin Ralph. He’s a must grab in all leagues, and could be a top 25 fantasy player for dynasty leagues. This little guy is big-time. Unlike Ozzie Guillen and Ozzy Osbourne, this Ozzie will use his bat for something useful vs slapping and biting. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Yesterday, Rafael Devers was called up by the Red Sox. Meh, if he’s anything like Danvers, Mass., I’m good. Somewhere, Prospector Ralph just Hulk-smashed his computer. Say something bad about Rafael Devers and Prospector Ralph goes full Clubber Lang at the Rocky statue. “You want a real man to play third base with your wife?” Devers’ minor league numbers (20 HRs, near-.310 across two levels this year in 85 games) look like yet another Benintendi, but with more power. The Sons of Sam Horn will go legit Sophie’s Choice if you try to get them to choose between Benintendi and Devers. “I’d prefer to eat at a Wahlburgers every day for the rest of my life than choose between those two. Oh, and Yankees suck!” After owning Benintendi for the past four months, I think I might prefer Devers next year, if he’s all that he’s cracked up to be. Not to get too crazy, but can anyone say a lefty Miggy? If you can’t say it, you might need to see a speech therapist. Devers is absolutely a grab in all leagues to see how looks. Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?