Fantasy Baseball Advice

The top 20, 40, 60 and 80 starters for 2009 fantasy baseball can be found under the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings.  For those of you who spent most of college like me here’s the Cliff Notes version of the starters.  If you click on some of the player’s names, you’ll see whole posts dedicated to these doodes with 2010 fantasy baseball projections.  Anyway, here’s some starters to target for 2010 fantasy baseball:

Jonathan Sanchez – 200 Ks; ADP 200-something.  That’s like having extra butter on your movie popcorn and control over the artificial sour cream seasoning shaker.  Hint:  Take off the lid and pour it on.  It’s wonderful.

Johnny Cueto – His name makes him sound like an 80’s teen movie villain, but there’s nothing to be scared of unless you’re a TOTAL DORK!

David Price – I have a sneaky suspicion that 2011 is going to be the year you’re going to love owning Price, but he can still provide moderate value.

Tim Hudson – They can’t all be Jimmy Upsidieros.

Jorge de la Rosa – I see lots of people drafting him so I smile gently, but I feel obliged to tell you he could be absolutely ugly.  dlR’s not for our elderly readers whose nurses regularly hide their meds.  (But if we do have elderly readers, find “Cheap Trick” in this post and replace it with “Douglas MacArthur.”)

Ervin Santana – As terrifically awful as last year was, you have remember that was one year, just as 2008 was one year.  Don’t be so reactionary.

Clay Buchholz – Kinda bummed there’s so many AL pitchers on this list.  Not thrilled at all that there’s two AL East pitchers on this list.  Don’t own them both; you’ll go batty.  Literally.

Kevin Slowey – I haven’t written much about Slowey outside of the blurb in the top 40 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball post-thingie-whosieski, but that’s wrong I tell ya.  I kinda want to own Slowey everywhere.  I dislike walks.  Slowey doesn’t do those.  I like strikeouts.  Slowey does those.  I’m gushing.  You hear me?  Gushing.

Gio Gonzalez – He had nearly a 10 K/9 in just under 100 innings last year.  Wouldn’t surprise me if he’s the A’s pitcher to own this year.  Not Anderson.  If you’re wondering how Gio works into the starting rotation, think about the Aetna-sponsored twosome of Sheets and Duchscherer.

Mat Latos – Could go from a Hodgepadre to a number three fantasy starter.  Act like you know, MC Lyte.

Ian Kennedy – All prospects that leave New York, farm system included, must also lose any hype.  We’ll call it The Felipe Lopez, Not That Felipe Lopez Rule. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Kennedy emerge as a fantasy three to four starter.

Sean Gallagher – More of a deep league option, or NL-Only, as Gallagher doesn’t have a rotation spot.  But you know where Gallagher will be smashing his watermelons in May?  In Petco.  Aw, sookie-sookie now.

Aroldis Chapman – Looking more and more like he could get the 5th starter job.  Well, he’s for real and he’s spectacular.

Colby Lewis – No one’s career has seen a bigger boost after going to Japan since Cheap Trick.  Feels like every year the Rangers have someone who’s way overhyped.  Has everyone forgotten that Lewis had a 6.71 ERA in his major league career before being rejuvenated in the Japanese Bubbling Spring of Soba Noodles?  Not to mention, he’s been hit this spring and Arlington isn’t exactly Petco or Metco.  So I wouldn’t target Lewis even though he’s in this post.  I just hadn’t talked about him and, well, now I have.

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2010 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2010 Reds Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of Reds Reporter.

1) This is the year Jay Bruce and Homer Bailey make good on all their promise, right? Please.  Lie to me, if need be.

I sure hope so.  Jay Bruce had somewhat disappointing season last year (0.223/0.303/0.470), certainly below most people’s expectations.  As a result, he seems to have slipped a bit in a lot of people’s estimations.  There were some other troubling aspects of his performance last year as well, like his 13% line drive rate (though this is not a particularly stable stat for most hitters).  Nevertheless, there is cause for optimism.  Most importantly, he’s entering his age-23 season with two years of MLB under his belt.  Not many players have done that and shown the kind of power Bruce has; that’s part of the reason that Barry Bonds is listed as his most similar player (by age) at baseball-reference.  Second, his BABIP was unbelievably low last season.  Part of that may be a function of his low line drive rate and excessively high fly ball rate.  But part of it may just be bad luck.  He’s a nice kid with sky-high talent, so everyone’s hoping he can take a big step forward next year.  To do so, however, he’s going to need to show much better plate discipline than he has in the past.  Sometimes he gets into funks where he seems to swing at just about anything the pitcher throws his way, and the result is a lot of weakly hit balls that will do his BABIP no favors.

As for Bailey…  He reportedly made a meaningful adjustment to his mechanics last offseason, and the result was a 3 mph uptick in his fastball velocity.  That’s massive, and it’s the main reason that I think what he showed over his last 9 starts (58 IP, 1.70 ERA, 53/24 K/BB) might be predictive of a quality season from him next year.  The only problem with that statement is that he had the same mechanical adjustment and velocity increase over his first 11 starts too (55 IP, 7.53 ERA, 33/28 K/BB).  But, maybe he just needed some time to find himself.  That’s what I keep telling myself anyway.

Clearly, this is a huge year for both of them.  With their talent, it’s probably not a “make or break” year.  But I think it’ll go a long way in telling us what sorts of careers these guys are likely to have.  … though I probably said the same thing last year.

2) My free Chinese calender says it’s The Year of the Tiger (and Tuesdays are “Lo Mein, Low Prices” Day).  But something tells me it’s The Year of the Votto.  What’s your prediction for him in 2010?

For some reason, I’ve always been a little skeptical on Votto, and he’s always proven me wrong.  But I think we’re going to see Joey Votto regress a bit.  I think he’s going to be a nice hitter, but the guy had an 0.372 BABIP last year.  That’s hard to maintain.  Most projections have him in the 0.300/0.385/0.525 range, and I’d be thrilled to get that from him again next year–especially if he can conquer some of the anxiety issues that surfaced last year and start 150+ games.  He was able to play through the anniversary of his father’s death over the last part of the season last year, so that’s a good sign.

3) Let’s play, Over/Under.  Next year, Drew Stubbs — 400 ABs, .240 average, 10 homers, 35 steals.  Feel free to expand on why you think he’ll be over or under on each.

Tough, as that’s about right.  I’ll take the over on the average and AB’s, and the under on the steals and homers.  I really don’t know what to expect from Stubbs, because his success in the majors last year–8 HR in 180 AB’s–goes completely against what his minor league numbers tell us to expect.  He “should be” a patient hitter who strikes out a lot and gets a lot of value from walks, speed, and fielding.  His fielding was as brilliant as advertised, and that along with the Taveras trade should keep him in the lineup as long as Chris Heisey doesn’t go crazy on us or something.  10 HR is clearly not out of his reach, and he’s always been a guy that the Reds expected to hit for at least decent power.  But I think pitchers are going to pitch him differently this year, which might prevent that kind of power success again.  He hit more than 7 home runs in a season just once in the minors, and that was in Low-A Dayton.  Steals…well, it will depend on how often he gets on base.  Dusty will likely hit him near the top of the lineup, though, because Dusty always leads off with a CF or SS…and Cabrera’s “a #2 hitter.”

4) In 2010, Johnny Cueto will pitch more like how he did in the 1st half or the 2nd half of 2009? And why?

My hope is like the first half, though the safe answer is somewhere in between.  One thing about Cueto last year is that he had pitched in both winter ball (against the Reds’ wishes IIRC) as well as the World Baseball Classic.  People already worried about his ability to hold up to workload given his fairly small frame (5′10″ 185lbs), and it’s reasonable to think that he might have just gotten really tired in the second half last season.  But it’s also the case that on June 1st, his ERA was 2.53 but his FIP was 4.02 and he had a 0.234 BABIP.  So part of it was just regression.  I hoping for 180 IP with a 4.25 ERA or so, but I’m not sure if I’ll get it.

5) When do you think we see Aroldis Chapman with the Reds?  Is there any truth to the rumor that Aroldis Chapman signed with the Reds because Dusty Baker’s concern for pitchers was most akin to Fidel Castro’s concern for human rights?

It’s hard to know.  I initially figured he’d start somewhere in A-ball and quickly work his way up if he showed he was ready.  But the initial reports from the Reds’ pitching coach were glowing, indicating much better command of his offspeed pitches, for example.  He might start the year in the high minors and be with the big club by mid-year.  Or, he might struggle.  It’s pretty hard to know without any minor league game data to work from.  I like tall left handers who throw 100 mph, though.

As for Dusty…Aside from the Harang stupidity in 2008, I think he’s been pretty good with the pitchers.  Especially the young ones.  Cueto, for example, never threw over 112 pitches last year, and only 5 times threw 110 or more.  Volquez threw 121 once in 2008, but never went over that mark.  I don’t think Dusty is breaking pitchers, at least not any more.

I’ve been footballin’ like it’s 2010 over on the other side of Razzball and was happy to get the baseball side of my brain lubed up. You can see Rotoworld’s Drew Silva’s take on the first half of the mock here and the second half here.  And while you’re clicking random hyperlinks, click here and follow me on twitter.  I’d like to give an extra thank you to frequent commenter, Steve, for being a sounding board for my picks.  Blame him for the ones you don’t like and praise me for the ones you like. Got it?  All in all I feel like this team would be a contender if it were a real fake team. Here are my fellow mockaletes:

Eno Sarris (FanGraphs.com)
Auto-Queue (Computer, and great guy to have a beer with)
Drew Silva (Rotoworld)
Steve Gardner (USA Today)
Tim Dierkes (MLBTradeRumors)
Mike Axisa (River Ave. Blues)
Jesse Spector (New York Daily News)
Sam Miller (Orange County Register)
Chet Gresham (Razzball)
Dan Wade (Bleacher Report)
Thor Nystrom (Rotoworld)
D.J. Short (Rotoworld)

1. (9) Mark Teixeira - I feel good about getting Tex at #9.  I thought hard on Matt Kemp because I love me some multi-tool players but Tex has some nice tools himself.  Ok, enough about men’s tools and how much I like them.  In the New Yankee Donkshop, Tex is a great tool to build the rest of your team.

2. (16) David Wright – My first of many value rebound players, Wright is too good to be no good, cuz he lays wood, even in the Metco hood.  Or something.  I don’t feel that great about third basemen this year anyway, so I’m okay to take a little risk with Wright.

3. (33) Brandon Phillips – At this point in the draft I’m thinking, “Donut delivery, it’s got to be feasible, you wake up Sunday morning and want a pastry, but don’t want to get out in the cold…” And I was also thinking, shortstop is weak and Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins are still on the board with four picks before me, but after them it’s a perfect shizz storm of shortstops I’d rather not have.  So as soon as the J.R.’s go, I look toward another weak position and grab the 20/20 stability that is Brando.

4. (40) Justin Morneau - As long as Morneau can stand upright he is good value with the 40th pick.  I think he will and he looks good in a UTIL spot.  Doesn’t it make you feel all warm and fuzzy when you can toss a top guy in UTIL, even if the rest of your team is full of Polancos and Zitos? Maybe it’s just me.  Went with value here.  I shop at Aldis too.

5. (57) Johan Santana – Maybe the Mets made a deal with the devil to win the ‘69 World Series and last season (and a whole lot of other seasons) was God (directed by Pat Robertson) smiting them down.  Maybe.  I’ll lean more toward some bad luck and a rebound year with Santana benefiting from Metco, a good offense, and just plain good pitching.

6. (64) B.J. Upton – I’m loving me some B.J. this year, well, all years actually.  He got off to a slow start last season with his shoulder gone wonky and then never got on track.  He’s risky, but you’re guaranteed the 40 stolen bases and I just don’t see his numbers not moving back to his norm.

7. (81) Josh Hamilton – Yes, this team is starting to look like Comeback Tour 2010, but I’m not grabbing players that have no track record of fantasy goodness.  Hamilton was overrated last season and crapped out.  So what is he now?  The 81st pick? Sure.

8. (88) Raul Ibanez – My outfield needed an old veteran who should start the season well and offset any injuries, schizophrenic episodes, or relapses by his brethren.  I needed another steady, reliable player in a offensive ballpark (looking back at Tex) and Ibanez fits the bill.

9. (105) Cole Hamels – His stuff is still there.  He misses bats.  No, he doesn’t have pet bats that he cares for at home; batters swing and miss when trying to hit his balls, which is good no matter how you look at it.

10. (112) Elvis Andrus – I was short on shortstop having missed out on the J.R.’s so I had to decide if I wanted to keep punting or go for it on fourth down with Elvis up the gut and instead he used his speed to take it all the way, because he’s got what we like to call in the business, upside! Could I have waited on him? Maybe, but I need his stolen bases and I like him, so I took him.

11. (129) Scott Baker – If we see second half Scott all season, I’ve got myself some filet mignon at Taco Bell prices.

12. (136) Carlos Marmol – I like Marmol and his K’s, but not a huge fan of his psyche.  I’m betting on his stuff.

13. (153) Jose Valverde – In a ‘perts league I usually like to grab more closers than I would in a league with my uncle who talks shizz, but is usually too drunk to pick SAGNOF off the wire in a timely manner. I won’t be owning the top closers unless they really fall so I don’t feel bad about grabbing multiple closers late.

14. (160) Geovany Soto – I’m hoping that Soto sans baby fat will have a better shot at staying healthy and not sucking.

15. (177) Francisco Cordero – Going back to my grab closers late in a ‘pert league, but in retrospect grabbing another starter might have been smarter since closers lasted a little longer than I thought they would.

16. (184) Garrett Jones – Meh, not the greatest pick of all time, but I like his value this late if he can repeat last season, but in a full season.

17. (201) Johnny Cueto – He’s got the ability, now he just needs to stay healthy and complete a full season with his best stuff.  He’s worth it as a late flier.

18. (208) Neftali Feliz – The guy is Matt Weiters and Roy Hobbs wrapped in a cheesy gordita.  That’s some yummy béisbollin! If this were a real fake team I might have to drop him for some waiver wire wonder, but he is too awesome not to take as my last pick.

Since I don’t draft starters early, the top 40 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball have a lot of names that I would draft.  Will I try for a starter from the top 20 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball rankings?  Yeah, definitely, but things don’t always work out the way you envision.  To anchor my staff, I could conceivably have two starters from these top 40 starters and, as you’ll see, I don’t even like all 20 of these starters.   All the other 2010 fantasy baseball rankings can be found there.  Also, as with other rankings, tiers and my projections are mentioned.  Anyway, here’s the top 40 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball:

21. Wandy Rodriguez – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Oswalt.  I call this tier, “I’m on board.”  Other than a slightly high percentage of men left on base, Wandy’s 2009 looks repeatable.  So here’s what he did in 2009:  3.02 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 193 Ks in 205 2/3 innings.  The Wandwagon rides again!  2010 Projections:  13-11/3.55/1.27/190

22. Chad Billingsley – Since Billingsley’s 2009 was so opposite of everything I expected, I’m going to speak in the inverse for him.  Last year, Bills had one of those dream seasons.  He came to camp in great shape.  Obviously cutting back on Ring Dings went a long way, but the key was his ice skating regimen.  As he stayed healthy all year, he dominated from start to finish.  K-rate crept up, walks went down and homers?  He didn’t give any up.  In 2010, the negation of the negation.  2010 Projections:  16-8/3.50/1.32/190

23. Matt Garza – Not crazy about the AL East.  It’s inevitable that you bench Garza vs. the Yankees or Sox when he pitches well and you start him when he gets hit.  You can set your watch to it.  Still Garza makes the pain of match ups bearable.  Last year, he increased his 2008 K-rate from 6.24 to 8.38.  Looking at his 9+ K/9 minor league league rate makes me think Garza, at the age of 25, finally found himself in the majors.  He should repeat last year’s numbers or take a step forward.  Here’s to forward movement… 2010 Projections:  12-9/3.80/1.24/200

24. Jered Weaver – What you see is what you get with Weaver.  An above average pitcher, but nowhere near the stud he looked like when he was first called up.  2010 Projections:  15-10/3.65/1.22/180

25. Scott Baker – Baker came out of gates with a sore shoulder that sidelined him for one official start in April.  Then he went on a two month string of terrible starts that made his owners wish he went on the 60-day DL.  His post-All-Star Break ERA was 3.28, his ERA in 2008 was 3.45.  I believe those numbers vs. the ones in the 1st half of 2009.  2010 Projections:  14-7/3.65/1.17/170

26. David Price – Here’s a detailed David Price fantasy breakdown.  2o10 Projections:  12-9/3.75/1.30/155

27. Ryan Dempster – Dempster was so downright awful as a closer that it took me two years before I was willing to believe he’s a mid-3 ERA starter.  And even now I feel the same way I felt with Cliff Lee in the top 20 starters.  I just know when I endorse Dempster, he’s going to employ his parachute as he watches me crash to the ground.  2010 Projections:  13-8/3.90/1.28/170

28. Roy Oswalt – The good news for 2009 is his ERA was higher than it should’ve been for how he pitched.  The bad news is it shouldn’t have been that much lower.  The days of him being an ace are way behind him, but as a quality number two to three man on your staff you can do worse.  2010 Projections:  12-6/3.65/1.22/150

29. Tommy Hanson – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Scherzer.  I call this tier, “Guys I’m avoiding that I’m not entirely thrilled about avoiding.”  Hanson’s innings bump was just too much for my high blood pressure.  I don’t think he’s going to be terrible this year.  I picture he’ll have a year similar to Billingsley’s 2009.  A few solid months and a few mediocre months, leading to an overall 3.75 ERA.  There’s way too many starters to choose from for me to buy into a guy I’m a little weary of.  Even if I’m right and he’s not good in 2010, he will be fine in 2011.  2010 Projections:  14-6/3.75/1.20/175

30. Javier Vazquez – As I wrote when he was traded, I originally had Vazquez ranked in the top 20 starters.  For s’s and g’s, here’s what I wrote when I had him ranked in the top 20. “For all starters in the major leagues, he had the lowest percentage of contact made on all pitches at 73.3%.  (For reference, Lincecum had 75%.)  For contact made from strikes, Vazquez ranked fourth.  When hitters aren’t making contact, you’re doing something well.  When you do that and throw as many strikes as Vazquez (238:44 K:BB), you’re doing something really³ well.”  Here’s what I wrote after he was traded.  2010 Projections:  15-10/4.15/1.22/200

31. Max Scherzer – His ranking is sorta like my ranking of Gallardo.  If I’m wrong, then I’m missing out on a guy that I could regret not owning because of all of his Ks.  Alas, I’m avoiding him because of his innings jump from ‘08 to ‘09 and his move to the Tigers won’t help his value.  It’s a termite-infested limb I’m out on avoiding him, but here I am.  2010 Projections:  12-8/4.00/1.32/165

32. Matt Cain – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Burnett.  I call this tier, “They will regress, but still ownable. Plus, A.J. Burnett.”  2007 is in Cain’s skill set.  2009 is not.  Or I should say it’s not without a lot of luck.  For all major league starters outside of Happ (and we’ll get to him in the top 60), Cain left the most men on base.  He also had a lower BABIP than Happ, if only by percentage points.  I say 2007 is in his skill set because that year he had a 3.65 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 163 Ks.  That’s ownable, just not a 2.89 ERA.  2010 Projections:  15-10/3.65/1.25/165

33. Jair Jurrjens – UPDATED:  Jar-Jar moved to the top 60 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball.

34. A.J. Burnett – Took two years of 30+ starts for me to accept Burnett as reliable. …Okay, I still don’t fully trust him, but it’s hard to find a 200 strikeout pitcher this late in the game.  Would I team Burnett with an upside two or three starter, like, say, Price?  No, I wouldn’t.  But I could see teaming him with an Oswalt-type.  Which gives me an idea, maybe I’ll do a post about pairings.  Not like what wine goes with branzino.  Like which starter goes with which starter.  2010 Projections:  16-9/4.05/1.35/200

35. James Shields – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Zambrano.  I call this tier, “Veterans that I’m done with.”  I just can’t take Shields’s shizz anymore.  Pitches well vs. the tough teams, gets his stank handed to him by the Royals, can’t pitch in away games… You’ve beaten me, Shields.  You win.  2010 Projections:  13-8/4.00/1.28/160

36. John Lackey – When he signed with Bahston, I went over Lackey for 2010 fantasy.  2010 Projections:  13-9/3.95/1.29/130

37. Brandon Webb – Hey, he’s all better!  That’s nice, I’m not owning him.  Pitching is already risky.  Not worth further risk.  2010 Projections:  12-7/3.60/1.28/165

38. Carlos Zambrano – Big Z is done-zo.  The Chicago chapter of the World Health Organization’s Freedom of Accuracy and Truth symposium should counsel children on what happens when you abuse an out of shape pitcher’s arm for five years.  In elementary school classrooms, posters can be hung of Carlos Zambrano, brought to you by WHO’s F.A.T.  2010 Projections:  14-9/3.95/1.35/140

39. Kevin Slowey – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here into the top 60 starters post.  I call this tier, “Fliers that I’m willing to give a chance.”  There’s a good chance I’m going to own at least one of these guys on all of my teams.  Slowey’s a strikeout pitcher that doesn’t walk anyone.  You shouldn’t need much else to get excited.  (BTW, everyone in this tier’s projections are optimistic, but whatevs.  You’ll afford me my dreams, right?)  2010 Projections:  15-9/3.60/1.17/165

40. Johnny Cueto – The 2nd half ERA of 5.81 was dreadful.  He had a two month ERA (July and August) of 8.18.  Was not a good time to be a Cueto owner.  His FIP was 4.69 on the year.  So what am I seeing in this schmohawk?  He suffered from a sore hip, which threw his mechanics out of control in the middle of the season.  In the minors, Cueto was a strikeout pitcher with solid control.  Here’s to him finding his happy place in the majors.  2010 Projections:  13-9/3.80/1.30/160

Took part in another mock draft the other day.  This mock team didn’t mock up as well as my last 2010 fantasy baseball mock team.  I underestimated how low catchers would fall.  In the 12th round — a round and/or around where I usually like to start thinking of catchers in 12 team leagues — Montero was staring at me in my Beetlejuiced-sized head (that picture of me above the post is actual size) and I just couldn’t turn him down at the 154th pick overall.  But then Soto sat there for another 5 rounds.  If I would’ve known I could’ve took Soto with the 200th pick, I would’ve took a better 4th outfielder, a better 3rd baseman and a better corner infidel.  But it didn’t work out that way.  Such is life.  I still think my team is solid.  The draft was a Mixed league, 5×5, 4 outfielders, an MI, a CI and 9 pitchers, any combination.  (FYI, rankings will start again Tuesday morning.  I’m on birthday-long-weekend until tonight.)  Anyway, here’s a 2010 fantasy baseball mock team, some thoughts on certain players and where I drafted them:

Round 2 – Jose Reyes – Usually when I draft speed of Reyes’s caliber, I ignore speed for the rest of the draft. I didn’t do that this time because I wanted to illustrate an employable strategy that might need its own post. When my crush of the moment, Ian Stewart, was drafted in the 8th round, I knew I was not getting a 3rd baseman. I had my Sleeper Pick For 3rd Base That No One Wants Including Myself in my back pocket, who I knew would be around because appropriately no one wants him.  But more on him in a second.  So to make up for my lack of a 3rd baseman, I drafted too heavy on speed.  I really don’t need Andrus and Reyes and the 10-20 steals I’m getting from others.  With extra speed, I’d be able to trade for someone.  Reyes for Zimmerman?  Andrus for Chipper?  Andrus for Beckham?  Reyes for Youkilis?  If I would’ve just took, say, Mark DeRosa at 3rd base when I took Andrus then I wouldn’t have a 3rd base or a shortstop to trade.  It’s obviously not an ideal strategy.  You should try and leave the draft with a team you want, not one you want to trade.  But it’s a strategy to keep in mind if your back’s against the wall.

Round 5 – Josh Hamilton – I didn’t believe the huge value coming out of 2008 and I don’t believe he’s washed up either.  In the 5th round, that’s solid value.  Plus, the great thing about Hamilton is if he starts the season hot, his value will soar because he’s the golden child.  Or is that the golden armed child?  Either way…

Round 6/7 – Johan Santana and Adam Wainwright – I’m sorry, but when I see Johan fall into the 70s in a draft, I’m taking him. The Wainwright pick was probably unnecessary, but I felt like my first five picks — Utley, Reyes, Votto, Grandy and Hamilton — are so stacked that I could’ve afforded the double starter pick.  I could conceivably have 5 top 10 overall picks from my first 7 rounds.

Round 8 – Raul Ibanez – Raul was not the best outfielder on the board when I took him.  He was the best threat for power and RBIs on the board.  I could’ve took Double I or Alfonso, but Torii’s less of a power threat and gives value with steals, which I didn’t want, and Soriano’s too risky for my team.

Round 9 – Francisco Rodriguez – Some ‘perts refuse to draft saves ever, to the point of absurdity.  K-Rod at the 111th pick overall is value.

Round 10 – Matt Garza – The one American League starter I drafted.  He K’d a decent amount in the minors but he didn’t show that until last year.  In 2010, he’ll continue to show it.

Round 16 – Ryan Ludwick – I don’t even particularly like Ludwick.  I think he can easily end up waiver wire fodder, but I was drafting heavy on power late and he was one of the few guys left.

Round 17/20 – Jonathan Sanchez and Johnny Cueto – 2nd mock draft in a row that I’ve taken both of them.  You might just see a sleeper post about each.

Round 18 – Chase Headley – Finally, my Sleeper Pick For 3rd Base That No One Wants Including Myself.  It’s not easy to get excited about a Padres hitter.  I realize this.  I almost wrote a sleeper post on Headley, but I couldn’t summon up the enthusiasm.  Headley had a good 2nd half last year.  Optimistic projections have him at a .300 average and 25 homers.  With Kouzmanoff, um, off to Oakland, Headley will get to play 3rd base, where he looks more comfortable on the field, which could help him at bat.  Okay, I’ve said enough about him.  After all, as I mentioned in the Reyes blurb, I drafted so I could trade for an adequate 3rd baseman.