It’s beginning to feel like it’s not an offseason without a trade of Wil Myers. In three short years, he’s gone from the Royals to the Rays and now on to the Padres. Only place he can go from the Padres is the Tokyo Yakult Swallows. They would hope Myers could carry them against their most hated rivals, the Yakuza Spits. The Miller Lite-inspired commercials between the Spits and Swallows in Japan are a real crack up. Tastes great!…Spit it out!…Tastes great!…Spit it out! Before Myers is pushing daisies in the NPB, he’ll bide his time in San Diego and try to right this rapidly sinking prospect boat. “Ice-cold sophomore year right ahead!” In all for realliness, I was planning on jumping back in the Myers sinking ship prior to this trade, and I don’t think it kills his value. Would I prefer he went to Coors? Yeah, well, dur. I also don’t think a 24-year-old former top prospect is washed up just because he had one bad year after fracturing his wrist. Takes time to bounce back from that type of injury and one thing we have is time. Well, you with the oxygen mask and cigarette might have less time. In a few years, we’re going to look back at Myers’s 2014 as it should be viewed now, a blip. I’m about as sure of that as Kilimanjaro rises like Olympus above the Serengeti. Or as sure of it that I’m listening to too much Toto’s Africa. Sure, Petco won’t do him any favors, but if his wrist is at hundred percent there shouldn’t be any problems getting at least 20 homers. Shoot, he could hit 10 homers in just his road games in Coors and Arizona. For 2015, I’ll give him 61/20/72/.277/8. Definitely sleeper material here. Anyway, here’s what else I saw this offseason for 2015 fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
There’s a dark side to the expansion of rosters that no one wants you to talk about. Or people do talk about it, but they talk about it as written by the writers of The Honourable Woman so no one can understand it. You laid a cable modem through the Gaza Strip? But now the Palestinians can see which celebrities are on their side. “We got Rihanna! With a hashtag, baby! If we could only buy her albums. What does she sing? S&M? What’s that mean? Whips and chains? Oh, yeah, like torture? Oh. Regarding sex? Hmm, we’d kill her for singing that. What other songs does she have? Umbrella? It doesn’t rain here. What else does she sing? Only Girl in the World? That is neither accurate nor encouraging. Could she remix it to 72 girls in the world?” This MLB roster expansion has a side to it that is that disturbing. With teams expanding, they don’t need to DL players. A week ago if Dustin Pedroia was forearm shivered as he was on Saturday, he would’ve hit the DL. Now, well, he’s going to sit on the bench for at least a week. Miguel Cabrera may have also hit the DL a month ago, so he could rest his ankle. Now, the Tigers said he could sit for 4 to 5 days. It’s not great news, though with how he’s hitting, in some leagues it might pay to just bench him and grab a hot bat. As for Pedroia, I’d drop him in most mixed leagues. He could be out for a week or longer, and, brucely, he hasn’t done much this year when he has been playing. Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Oh man, it’s back to real life! After an awesome weekend in DC to see my Brewers (I’ll share some fun graphics next week), it’s back to pitching and back to Wood jokes. And of course I mean the criminally (for a stretch) underrated Alex Wood.
Wood starting chucking phenomenally out of the gates, with blistering Ks and ratios. But when Mike Minor got off the DL and Aaron Harang deciding not to suck this year, Wood could not chuck any more wood. [Hah – you thought Wood jokes were going the other way, huh?!] Repeatably getting hit out of the bullpen, the Braves finally decided to move him down to AAA to [re]stretch out to get back into the rotation.
Upon [re]arrival in late June, Wood had a lot of “meh”, but I was still all in. I remember there were some drop Wood comments and I remained steadfast in my Woodward ways. And with another good start yesterday, I decided to take a deeper look into his pitch-by-pitch performance to be sure my Wood was warranted:Please, blog, may I have some more?
As I mentioned in my first/intro OPS post, we’re looking at OPS differential by using expected (x)Homerun and expected (x)BABIP differentials. If you like Captain Planet or laser beams, or want to understand my general approach, then I recommend a gander. If you provide your email below, I can furnish the full list that you can sort. Wordpress doesn’t allow me to copy and paste it all pretty for you.
Let’s start with my xHR formula (PA*Ct%*OFFB%*HR/OFFB%). Here are the top 10 guys likely to drop off from a HR perspective: Albert Pujols, Adam Jones, Justin Morneau, Alexei Ramirez, Mark Reynolds, Charlie Blackmon, Ian Desmond, Brett Lawrie, Hunter Pence and Salvador Perez.
Here are the top 35 guys likely to drop off from a BABIP perspective that you actually might own (meaning I’m excluding the Martin Maldonados of the world): Josh Rutledge, Justin Ruggiano, A.J. Pollock, Josh Hamilton, Stephen Vogt, J.D. Martinez, J.J. Hardy, Eugenio Suarez, Hunter Pence and Matt Adams.
Looking at both xHR and xBABIP differentials, here are guys you might own that I would consider selling in OPS leagues based on their expected vs. actual OPS (the differential is in parenthesis just like this statement. See what I did here?):Please, blog, may I have some more?
Cause you got a build up of wax in your eyes and haven’t been digesting the non-verbal medicine I’ve been doling out about Khris Davis, he’s getting a lede. This is coming to you from a tough love perspective, so whatever I say I don’t wish to offend or denigrate. Y’all seem like good people. Some of you I would even consider friends. Friends that I’ve never met and friends that when you called me to make plans I’d lie about other plans I didn’t have to avoid you, but friends nevertheless. You all have good souls. Each and other one of you. Now, it’s time to unload on you. Damn, in the middle of softening the blow, I forgot what the blow was. Well, you should own Khris Davis. I know that was part of it. He’s been out-homering Chris Davis. Everyone knows there’s only one way to spell Khris Davis. Spelling it with a C is for cream puffs. Even that should be khream! Is Khris the answer to your season? Prolly not, but he is capable of 30 homers and he has 10 as of right now. Plus-minus that shizz and you have a bunch more homers in his bat. Oh, and four of those homers came in the last eight games. He is only 26 years old so there might even be a chance here for huge upside. I.e., his ceiling is unknown. All that is known is that he’s hit for power everywhere he’s played. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
As I walk through the valley of the shadow of death
I take a look at my life and realize there’s nothin’ left
Cause I’ve been toutin and praisin Domonic so long,
That even Grey and Jay(Wrong) think that my mind is gone
But I ain’t never praised a man that didn’t deserve it
“Sir” Dom or Beddict treated like a punk? you know that’s unheard of
You better watch how you manage and how you baller block.
Or you and your staff gonna be given your papers to walk
I really hate to trip but I gotta loc
As Mayberry chokes, I see myself in the Payote smoke, fool
I’m the kinda writer/model the little homies wanna be like
On my knees sacrificing goats every night saying prayers to the Elder Gods in the streetlight
Been Speeeeending most my life, livin’ in the Models/strippers/writers Paradise!
I love the Aussie people; they have goofy words for a barbecue and even goofier animals — koalas and kangaroos? Is Australia animated? Those things are goofy! Why not just get a duck-billed platypus and anteater and call it a day, you wacky-animal-having country! How about baseball there? Did all the fans in attendance win a Bowie knife if a player hit a home run into the big marsupial pouch? Did Crocodile Dundee throw out the first pitch? Did the batters hit with a fraternity hazing paddle? I don’t know, because it was at four in the morning! Selig really needs to stop doing this to Opening Day. The players will be exhausted from traveling and won’t be able to get their usual reps in during the spring. The first pitch of the season should be at a time when 7-year-old North American boys and girls can watch it. Not at 4 AM EST. What if the first game went extra innings or someone got hurt? Can they just call up someone from the minors for the next game? No, so then you’ll have a team playing short. Do these stunts in December as a goodwill trip. Don’t make major league baseball teams into the Harlem Globetrotters for a regular season game. Eh, whatevs, baseball is back, who cares if it comes with a big helping of Vegemite. Anyway, here’s what else I saw for fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Angel Pagan might be out the season, but will definitely be out until September. Too bad, so sad, don’t forget to write, don’t write too often, waste of paper. Hey, Gregor Blanco, come on down! You are the next contestant on The SAGNOF Is Right. How many steals can you steal this year? Peter Bourjos says 20. Not bad, but seems a little low. Jacoby Ellsbury says 60. Whoa, that’s way too high; you’re not gonna win a trip for two to Mount Rushmore like that. Michael Bourn says 35. That’s not bad; he’s practiced this at home with his grammy. Oh no, Darin Ruf says 1. Damn you, Darin Ruf! Now I have to guess exactly or go with 2, but then Marlon Byrd can say 3 and I’m screwed. I’ll say…28. Byrd goes with 2, and Ruf gives him the stink-eye. Drew Carey says… Oops, when he pulled out the card an eight ball of coke fell out of his pocket. The correct answer is 32! I win! Next up, Plinko! Fitting since Gregor sounds like a Pinko. Sure, Blanco’s not an exciting name and is only the lede because there were four games yesterday, but he still has lots of value. This news is the equivalent to a new closer taking over. Blanco won’t kill you in average, and has been hitting near .500 in the last week. Blanco is a guy I’d grab in every single league if I needed speed. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Did someone call Glenn Frey? Cuz the H is O. When the news hit, I was on the toilet, which reminded me of that famous Lawrence Taylor quote when he said, “My life is in the toilet and no one is flushing.” Ryan Braun and Alex Rodriguez‘s lives are in that same proverbial toilet; hopefully they avoid sleeping with an underage prostitute. “Baby, you ever see me break Theismann’s leg?” “The Theismann Trophy? Wow, isn’t that bronze?” “Joe Theismann, woman!” “Woman? I’m 16.” That’s an audio recording of LT in the hotel room. So, the world is ablaze with ESPN’s report that a suspension is forthcoming for Braun, A-Rod, Yasmani Grandal, Nelson Cruz, Jhonny Peralta and Everth Cabrera, amongst notable fantasy names. Gio Gonzalez isn’t in danger because he makes people write down shizz in invisible ink. “I bought this pen from the back of comic book, forgoing the 3-D glasses.” That’s Gio at the steroid reception desk. By the by, how buff was the lady taking calls at Biogenesis and how bad did A-Rod hit on her? I got questions, y’all! If Ryan Braun is suspended, the repercussions will obviously be huge for your fantasy team. However, Braun looks like he’s already battling something — the Jewish guilt? P to the erhaps. If you’re doing well in your league with the Braun that you have, chances are you can rotate through hot schmotatoes in shallower mixed leagues to give you his production. If A-Rod is suspended? Well, no one cares outside of the buff receptionist. EverCab could also send people scrambling for steals on waivers, while Cruz and Jhonny are replaceable in most mixed leagues. On the bright side, Braun’s lawyers will probably fight this for at least a month or two, and they’ve won before over what mail carrier someone used, so you never know. On the brighter side, the publishers of the Jewish Sports Hero Pamphlet can hold off on an expansion for a while. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
I’m no Nostradumbass, but I’m telling you there’s not going to be a whole lot of greatness coming out of this post. We’re Cousteau deep right now. The first tier have some nice flyers that you may drop after a week or so and the other schmohawks in this post are, well, schmohawks. Please, blog, may I have some more?Please, blog, may I have some more?