Fantasy Baseball Advice

So I got bored this week and decided to look at some deep rooted stats. I was looking for fantasy pitchers who don’t K a lot but are still very useful for fantasy purposes, and wouldn’t you know it, it relates well to a lot of options this week. These guys get overlooked by everyone. I’m here to learn you something. Not all pitchers who have over a 7 K/9 are candidates for rosterability. There are other factors that lead these low K/9 pitchers to greater success, they have peripherals that are better than the guys we roster. It seems that there is an affection toward pitchers who will get you more K’s but hurt your ERA and WHIP as opposed to getting a starter that has a low K-rate and helps with ERA and WHIP. All the starters I list every week are based off the roster status on multiple fantasy services and I usually use less than 50% ownership (with some variances here and there). So with that, I am telling you not to forget about the guys who get it done but go unnoticed because they aren’t Brandon Morrow. They still help just as much as the “productive” players or guys we think are more productive than they actually are. I ask you this:  Would you rather have an ERA of 2.50 with 6 K’s in two starts or an ERA of 4.50 and 12 K’s in two starts?  I understand that guys contribute to both exist, but are already owned and usually the top 30-40 pitchers overall. I’m merely talking about cusp of the roster guys. Enjoy the week to come. (Please keep in mind that pitchers and matchups change.)

ONE START OPTIONS:

6/28
Clayton Richard vs. KC – Paulino

6/29
Carlos Carrasco @ Bal – Arrieta
Paul Maholm @ Tor – Morrow
Tim Stauffer vs. KC – Chen

6/30
Jeff Karstens @ Tor- Villanueva
Mike Pelfrey @ Det – Verlander

7/1
Juan Nicasio vs. KC – Davies
Tim Wakefield @ HOU – Norris
Bronson Arroyo vs. Cle – Masterson

Kevin Correia (@Tor vs. Reyes, @Was vs. Marquis) Should be a line painter he is so good on the road. Home/away splits are hard to ignore. Go look. See told ya. Lack of K’s make him kind of boring. I have to go dust off my Omar Moreno jersey as I told myself I would never wear it until they reach .500 in July.

John Lannan (@Ana vs. Santana, Pit vs. McDonald) ERA at 1.15 over the last 6 starts. Jump on board and ride the hot hand. Low K guys are the Monty Capuletti of fantasy. The Nats are on a pretty decent roll right now.

R.A. Dickey (@Det vs. Porcello, NYY vs. Garcia) Deserves better. Only one win to show for his 2.35 ERA over the last month. Odd stat o’ the day, Metco is a pitchers haven but his ERA is lower on the road by a run.

Jason Hammel (CHW vs. Floyd, KC vs. Francis) Pitching in Colorado stinks. It’s pretty cut and dry, ERA’s get bloated, WHIP’s get taken to the shed. Pitches just bad enough that his offense can’t help him. Last resort for deep leagues this week.

Jason Marquis (@Ana vs. Pineiro, Pit vs. Correia) Has pitched surprisingly awesome and fits the bill for the above mentioned low K guys. Gets hit around a little but pitches to contact so what do you expect? Home ERA in the mid 2’s.

Jordan Lyles (Tex vs. Wilson, Bos vs. Miller) Two tough matchups, both lineups can hit. Pitched okay last week against the Rangers. The Astros pitchers are horrible to chase wins with. K/BB rate of 4/1. Lefties only hitting .208 against.

Nick Blackburn (LAD vs. Billingsley, Mil vs. Greinke) Yet another low K guy, I can’t make this stuff up. June ERA is 2.04.  Wait, it gets better for the unappreciated, home ERA for the year is 2.40. Matchup names are scary, but anyone seen Minnesota play lately. No, go ask Buster Poindexter then.

Ryan Vogelsong (@CHC vs. Davis, @Det vs. Scherzer) You see that thing in the horizon, yeah that’s the ship that sailed. I pimped and pimped for as long as I could but he finally graduated to usefulness. Who is the next american pitcher to come back from Japan? I did the research for ya, it’s Bryan Bullington.

Andrew Miller (@Phi vs. Lee, @Hou vs. Lyles) Watched his first start, he pitched okay, and it was against the Friars. K potential is nice, being a tether ball isn’t. I asked Jerry Remy after the game what he thought, his quote “Not now, kid.” Dynamite stuff, Remdog.

Brandon Beachy (@Sea vs. Bedard, Bal vs. Britton) Prolly the most added guy in any league or format for the next week. The 11 K outing makes everyone think “I want some of that goodness.” Only bad thing I can see is he may give up some taters… Mmmm taters.

We’re going streaming! No? Okay, it’s just me then. As I was doing the research for this week, two things happened. One, I threw up at the possibility of adding any of these lower end guys. Secondly, I kept thinking that maybe I am losing touch with the fantasy world. Has one week really shifted to a baseball tangent of have-nots having relevant value. I’m befuddled at the lack of value for this week’s streaming party. With all the lower end pitching that is out there we get 2 start games from possibly the worst 4 teams in baseball (with their respective options for fantasy goodies). I am upset and demand a pamphlet or at least a seminar on how this happened. This week may be a decent week for you to string along 2 or 3 separate one start pitchers instead. I have included a small list of them as well for your viewing enjoyment. So as you read this, approach with caution and just be confident of the fact that better times are coming for two start pitchers. Good luck. (Please be aware that pitchers and match ups change)

One Start options:
Phil Coke – @Sea vs. Fister 4/19
Esmil Rogers – SF vs. Sanchez4/19
R.A. Dickey – Hou vs. Norris 4/20
Jon Garland – Atl vs. Lowe 4/20
Charlie Morton – @Fla vs. Nolasco 4/20
Josh Tomlin – @KC vs. O’Sullivan 4/21
Kyle Lohse – Was vs. Gorzellany 4/21
Derek Holland – KC vs. Francis 4/22
Clayton Richard – Phi vs. Blanton 4/22

Kevin Correia (@Cin-Wood, Was- Hernandez) – Looked good for 5 innings in last start, unfortunately it isn‘t tee-ball. Lack of K’s is unappealing. Staff aces on mediocre teams get no love.

Jake Westbrook (Was-Lannan, Cin-Lecure) – By name he looks awesome this week. By performance, one would think Duncan hates his guts. Let’s be honest he is a lunch pail ground ball pitcher — no more, no less.

Sam LeCure (Ari-Galarraga, @STL-Westbrook) – 2nd start may be in question with DL returnees Bailey and Cueto. Does a really great Robert Smith impression for his Quebec-based cover band. Seems destined to be in and out of rotation all year.

John Lannan (@STL-Westbrook, @Pit-Maholm) – Decent career numbers against the ‘Lou. Better match-ups this week than the last 2, Nats need to start hitting, starting to be referenced with the Mariners.

Brandon Beachy (@LA-Kuroda, @SF-Lincecum) – Ugh and yuck. Doesn’t seem to be getting any easier for the sleeper. 2 rough road starts.

Jason Vargas (Det-Scherzer, Oak-Anderson) – One bad start in between 2 decent. Can’t trust a team that doesn’t score, plain and simple.

Dustin Moseley (@CHC-TBD, Phi-Lee) – Only given up 4 ER all year in 3 decent starts. Hodgepadre indeed.

Bruce Chen (Cle-Carrasco, @Tex-Holland) – Last 10 starts dating back to last year, 7-1 with a 3.45 ERA. I can’t make stuff up like that.

Fausto Carmona (@KC-Davies, @Min-Liriano) – Unreliable, best word I can think of. Based on match-ups though it makes sense. Minny has 3, count them 3 HR’s all year. The Indians are getting it done though, don’t have the talent to sustain but will be a headache for awhile.

Jonathon Niese (Hou-Rodriquez, Ari-Galarraga) – Last 2 starts not so hot, next 2 pale in comparison by offensive measures. Two starts at Metco, a resounding… maybe. The Wandwagon has lost its wheels and is now a sled and ‘Almost Perfect’ has been anything but.

We are getting down to it, the end of fantasy is nigh. Always wanted to say that. Point leagues are pushing the innings limit, while H2H leagues are figuring out what guy will carry them all week. It’s probably someone on the Rockies, holy hell are they a fantasy juggernaut. They are like getting a hidden onion ring when you order French fries from BK. Well, I won’t keep you too long with the prologue, it’s just useless fodder to warm you up to read the article, I should have sprung for hot chocolate instead. Good luck in your playoff endeavors this week, here are the low budget 2 start pitchers for the week in fantasy baseball.

Livan Hernandez (Hou vs. Norris) (Atl vs. Lowe)
I’m checking his ID, there is no way he is 35. That’s about as hard as he throws to boot. Mike D said it best, “She’s Crafty, and she‘s just my type.”

Bud Norris (@Was vs. Hernandez) (@Pit vs. Duke)
I’m still buying Bud. He’s going to be cheap, his K’s come in 6-12 packs and his Uncle will whoop ya Texas Ranger-style. Coming off 2 decent starts ERA is in the mid 3’s for the month.

Joe Saunders (Col vs. De La Rosa) (LA vs. Billingsley)
Pitches just bad enough to lose. The good news, he has a 4.32 ERA in night games. That’s all I could find stat-wise that didn’t make me vomit.

Rick Porcello (KC vs. Greinke) (Min vs. Duensing)
Where was I when I was 21? Yeah, it’s foggy, but I know I was somewhere not named Detroit. Previous gem versus KC. 7 innings in 5 consecutive starts.

John Lannan (Hou vs. Happ) (Atl vs. Jurrjens)
Has been sneaky decent. ERA a tick above 3 since coming back from injury.

Bruce Chen (@Det vs. Galarraga) (@Cle vs. Carmona)
Why not? 3.90 ERA on the road. I like both matchups, and you could do worse. Not much worse, but it’s worth a shot, and if he sucks then you blame your whole season on him.

Jake Westbrook (@Pit vs. Maholm) (@CHC vs. Wells)
Prolly best name on this list, bad part is that he is prolly owned in your league. Has gotten crap for run support. 3.20 ERA since coming to NL, but we knew that was going to happen.

Chris Capuano (Cin vs. Bailey) (Fla vs. Volstad)
2.50 ERA as a starter, yeah, I had to look that up. Fighting for a job next year which is usually good motivation.

Chris Volstad (StL vs. Carpenter) (@Mil vs. Capuano)
Back from suspension. I mean who doesn’t love a great melee, pacifists that’s who. ERA 2 runs lower at home.

Baseball is still going, I thought it was over since football has started. Soccer that is. Yeah, I know American Soccer is unwatchable, so I get my binoculars out and peer across the pond. I am sure I am alone in my passion as not many people play fantasy baseball and love the EPL. Oh well, editorial over. So what do we have for you this week? Injured starters return only to be most likely banished back, pennant races getting interesting and I saw Pirahna 3-D, yikes. It’s like watching a spring break snuff film. Hmm, it actually sounds good when I put it that way.  Well, enjoy the fantasy week that will be, as I am off to enjoy a case of High Life and a few games of Madden.

R.A. Dickey (Fla vs. Johnson) (Hou vs. Norris)
Makes playing like Dickey a positive. Low numbers everywhere. Would be top 10 in ERA if he qualified. Is the NL version of Jason Vargas statistically, if that’s a compliment.

Fausto Carmona (Oak vs. Gonzalez) (KC vs. Chen)
Cleveland is only one game under .500 post AS break. Yeah, I had to look that up.

Jeremy Guthrie (@ChW vs. Floyd) (@Ana vs. Santana)
Struggles against lefties with a .264 BAA. ERA a creep over a deuce in last 7 starts. Change of leagues and he is a 15 game winner.

Kyle Lohse (@ Pit vs. Maholm) (@Was vs. Lannan)
I keep thinking something is going to click with him, a la 2008. Starting to get re-stretched out, takes 3-4 starts before we realize he is recycling.

John Lannan (ChC vs. Zambrano) (StL vs. Lohse)
Lannan is hot.  Wait, did I just say that? Yeah, I think I did.  2 ER or less in 4 starts. Still suffers from “letting to many guys get on base” disease.

Dave Bush (LA vs. Kuroda) (Pit vs. Ohlendorf)
One good start and one bad start, he is consistent. Consistently crappy. It sets up to be a bomb versus the Dodgers. I believe it was Dudley Dawson that said it best, “We’ve got Bush.”

Jason Hammel (Atl vs. Hudson) (LA vs. Kuroda)
My mom collects his figurines and she doesn’t even like baseball. ERA 2 runs lower at home. 6+ innings in 9 out of 10, and I love me some groundball 2 start pitchers.

Joe Blanton (Hou vs. Myers) (@Sd vs. Garland)
Hates the first inning when he has a 8.83 ERA, the rest of game 3.36. Should start Lidge and have Blanton get the last 24 out save.

Rich Harden (Min vs. Liriano) (Oak vs. Braden)
Gauze pads and some “ouchy” ointment will be needed. Is the walking baseball analogy:  bike with no seat, Ferrari stuck in traffic. Okay, I’m done. Keep a medic on alert.

Bud Norris (@Phi vs. Hamels) (@ NyM vs. Dickey)
I told you. Kid is turning into a top 40 SP going into next year. I am occasionally right once and a while. Wish my arms were longer, I’m tired of patting my shoulder.

This initial installment is full of fellas who go twice in week one of the 2010 fantasy baseball season. Week 1 is always a “ball and rank ‘em” scenario. Guys who are either on really crappy teams, are fantasy irrelevant anyways, fill-ins for an injured bloke. I’m a huge proponent of streaming at least one waiver wire fodder every week. If you have built a team that is made to last the fantasy season you can take the risk of floating a guy here or there. Wins are the most unpredictable category in fantasy. So why not play the odds?

Ian Snell (@ Oak vs. Braden) (@ Tex vs. Feldman)
Guy is still riding his 17 k performance vs. St Mary’s School for the Blind, and everyone hopped on board after he got traded last year thinking he was the savior for a late season push. Wrong, guy is a 8-9th starter at best in fantasy. Only here because Clifton Phifer Lee (can’t make that up) got hurt and threw at Snyder. 2 wins vs. Oak last year, avoid vs. Texas.

Dallas Braden (Sea vs. Snell) (@ ANA vs. Saunders)
Pitched great at home last year. Not a high K guy and needs to work the screwball and change to be effective.  I like him for both these starts and could be a decent fill-in later on.

Jake Westbrook ( @ Chw vs. Buehrle) (@ Det vs. Verlander)
Yikes faces a great hitting team and then one of the best starters in baseball. He is the anchor for the sinking vessel this year called the USS Wahoo. 2 years away from really doing anything.  Looks like a mid-season trade chip to a contender, probably the Dodgers if he can stay healthy. Avoid till you see if he returns to form.

John Lannan (Phil vs. Halladay) ( @Nym vs. Santana)
I like this kid, could win 12-14 games behind a sneaky good Nats lineup. Draws the top 2 pitchers in the NL east. Better stats at home, may fair better in NY. Keep an eye on his first start, but a win may come at the expense of giving up six.

Zach Duke (LA vs. Padilla) (@ Ari vs. Ed Jax)
I personally like guys who give you decisions — Duke had 33 starts with 27 decisions.  Will give you decent numbers for a bad team’s number one. Has two favorable matchups.  Owned the Dodgers last year. Great fill-in this week and could be a relevant mixed league option for favorable matchups.

Nick Blackburn ( @ Ana vs. Saunders) (@ Chw vs. Buehrle)
One of my favorites for week one adds. Awesome versus the Pale Hose last year. Going to have to adjust to being an outdoor pitcher all year. Stats won’t jump out at you, innings eater who is a matchup delight. An ERA hovering around 4; decent 12 win plateau for the year.

Kevin Millwood (@ TB vs. Shields) (Tor vs. Marcum)
Pitched great in a hitters’ park a year ago, but can he pitch in a hitters’ division is another question? Anything near a 4 ERA in the AL East is a good accomplishment. Will be fantasy worthy most weeks.

Vicente Padilla (@ Pitt vs. Duke) (@ Fla vs. Johnson)
Probably the number one add in most leagues based on his 2 start appeal for week 1. Pitched great for the Dodgers down the stretch.  Good offense leads to at least double digit wins. Gotta like both his starts against teams that are inferior to his. Not a stellar spring, but he is Vicente Padilla. So temper your expectations. Could be useful all year in a mix and matchup scenarios.