Fantasy Baseball Advice

This isn’t meant to replace Smokey’s two-start pitchers for fantasy that comes every weekend. This is meant to supplement that, like something A-Rod’s cousin would give you. This isn’t two start pitchers, this is barely owned guys that could give you one start. A pick up and a drop. They’re all owned in less than 50% of ESPN leagues. Pretty much everything I told you in the beginning of the year about trusting your big guns and not trusting the wayward sons-of-bees goes out the window this time of year. If you’re battling for pitching points or in the H2H playoffs, you need to take some chances I wouldn’t necessarily take in April. Suddenly, Jeff Francis looks ownable and John Lannan doesn’t look like John Lannan, but looks like a guy whose home ERA is under 3. So I’ve assembled starters from Friday, the new Hump Day, until next Wednesday, the old Hump Day, that you could take a chance on depending on how bad your pitching shituation is. I’m not completely proud of all of these guys, but their mommas are (even Momma Lannan). Anyway, here’s some borderline starters for this week in fantasy baseball:

Friday, September 9th

Bud Norris – Has a great K-rate and goes against the Nationals, a team that is 2nd in the majors in strikeouts.  Could see him getting tagged for a homer or two, but should give you 6 innings and at least 6 Ks.  There’s a chance here for a 7 IP, 10 Ks game.  Fancy me some of that!

Jeff Francis – Game is in Safeco.  Yes, that’s all you need to know.  A recurring theme will emerge.  Recurring Theme, “Safeco!”  See?

Saturday, September 10th

Henderson Alvarez – My very-risky-may-not-be-risky-at-all start of the week.  Why do I sound like a less racist Jimmy The Greek?  Alvarez won’t strikeout many guys but, as long as balls don’t find holes — that’s what she said! — he should be okay.

Chris Capuano – Has been better in Metco than on the road and he gets the below-average Cubs offense at home.

John Lannan – I aforementioned this shizz if you read the lead — or lede if you’re an old-timer who likes the feel of a newspaper, Lannan’s home ERA is under 3 and he gets the Astros.

Edwin Jackson – This start worries me and I debated leaving it off, so there’s that.

Wade Miley – He gets the Padres.  This will be another recurring theme –  Recurring Theme, “Padres!” — but not for this week.  Recurring Theme, “My bad.”

Sunday, September 11th

Javier Vazquez – He falls under the 50% owned threshold, but he really shouldn’t.  So this one’s kind of a gimme.  Now watch him drop an upper decker.

Monday, September 12th

Brad Lincoln – Four score and four straight quality starts ago, he was a middle reliever.  Now he gets a team (the Cards) that he threw six shutout innings against.

Mike Leake – In 23 innings, he has a 2.74 ERA vs. the Cubs, including his last game where he was within an out of a one-hitter.

R.A. Dickey – He rematches against Wang for the Toilet Bowl II.

Phil Hughes – Recurring Theme, “Safeco!”

Aaron Harang – He goes against the Giants and rookie Surkamp, who I almost listed here too.  Conflict of interests yadda³.

Tuesday, September 13th

Guillermo Moscoso – Honestly, only because I had to pick someone.  It’s Tuesday the 13th… Spooky!

Wednesday, September 14th

Brandon McCarthy – I expect he’s gonna get rattled in his Friday start vs. the Rangers because, ya know, they’re good.  Here he goes against the Torii Hunter Peter Bourjos Vernon Wells Howie Kendrick Mark Trumbo-led Angels.

Chris Narveson – There’s a chance this start may not happen, but if it does against Colorado… Keep on pushing my love to the borderline…fantasy baseball starters.

Finally Jim Mora and Robert Horry will pay attention to their fantasy baseball teams.  Last week got all flummoxed with all that Irene business. Not my fault the patent is still pending on my weather machine. This week let’s hope we are back to some sense of normalcy.  Wait, off course we are…  Strasburg is back!  It’s like the Beatles playing Shea in ‘63.  No, not really, but it’s still exciting.  Some playoff systems lock their rosters so if your reading this to just read this, thanks for being a faithful reader.  Others, start as many as you can.  Stats are stats.  I would rather go down fighting than sit there like a bump on a log.  Well, good luck this week in both the fantasy baseball playoffs and the first week of fantasy football.  (Please keep in mind that pitchers and matchups change.)

ONE START OPTIONS:

9/7
Bruce Chen @ Oak – Moscoso
R.A. Dickey @ Fla – Hensley
Joe Saunders @Col – Millwood
Aaron Harang vs. SF – Cain

9/8
Mike Minor @ NYM – Gee
Luke Hochevar @ Sea – Vargas

9/9
Mark Buehrle vs. Cle – Gomez
Bud Norris vs. Was – Hernandez
Brandon McCarthy @ Tex – Lewis
Brett Cecil vs. Bal – Guthrie

Henderson Alvarez (Bos vs. Beckett, Bal vs. Reyes) Anyone who reads my posts knows I love me some ground ball pitchers, sop them up with a biscuit.  Temptation is there to sit him against the Sawx, but you do what you do.

Jake Westbrook (Mil vs. Wolf, Atl vs. Hudson) I am going to run out of biscuits this week.  Pitching better, I wanna pat him on the head and say it’s too late for the Cards, but I hate breaking peoples’ spirits.

James McDonald (Hou vs. Sosa, Fla vs. Vazquez) Return of the Mack…. Yes, I did.  Wow, that was my jam when I was crossing over out of my high top fade days.  His WHIP makes me do the sour pickle face, home starts make me do the pee pee dance but in a good way.

Fausto Carmona (Det vs. Porcello, @Chw vs. Stewart) His name translated means unsolvable enigma.  That’s really not true, but it was fun to type.  You know his whole story, he has been on this weekly post more than anyone.  Buy two-ply just in case.

John Lannan (LAD vs. Kuroda, Hou vs. Rodriguez) Home sweet home.  ERA is way lower and he needs to keep the place clean for when Stras’ pitches.

Josh Collmenter (@Col vs. Rogers, SD vs. LeBlanc) Start all D-Backs, no matter when, no matter where.  That’s my new theory.  It has replaced “eatin’ ain’t cheatin.”

Javier Vazquez (NYM vs. Capuano, @Pit vs. McDonald) I don’t know who is more of an agita inducer, him or Fausto.  Could be the Montezuma’s revenge kicking in.  Ks are always nice and I would always like to play for my great grandfather.

Henry Sosa (@Pit vs. McDonald, @Was vs. Strasburg) I really wanted to work both Stras’ starts in here, but left Ted Lilly at the bagel store.  27-year-old rookie basically getting by on deception.  Is this week’s “it’s 2 o’clock and I don’t want to sleep alone special.”

Felipe Paulino (@Oak vs. Harden, @Sea vs. Beavan) I was having a debate with a friend, who would be a better love therapist Phil Collins or REO Speedwagon?  You’re asking yourself,  “How does this relate to Felipe Paulino?”  It doesn’t but thanks for reading and now you’re thinking of Phil Collins.  Mission accomplished.

Wade Miley (@Col vs. Cook, SD vs. Stauffer) I like anyone who plays for the Snakes right now.  Team is gritty with neck tattoos and a gruff disposition.  Sounds like I was reading a profile off of American Grizzly.

Chris Capuano (@Fla vs. Vazquez, CHC vs. Wells) You’re welcome, I gave you 11 guys this week.  Mainly because I can’t count.

What a distracting week. Football comes in and trumps all of the trade deadline thunder, and I’m getting sick of seeing “Mr. Mackey” give football updates. If I have to explain that joke, then it really wasn’t that funny. So back to the sport that is actually being played. Trade deadline rumors are rampant, some pieces have been moved already, with some really interesting fantasy relevant moves to come. On a side note, for my money is there a better GM in baseball than AA in Toronto, he seems to always be a couple steps ahead of other GM’s. Any the who, enjoy the last 2 days of real baseball trading, hopefully the moves will be beneficial to your teams. Nothing sucks worse than losing a top 10 closer this late in the season, but such is life. Good luck on this week’s endeavors. (Please keep in mind that pitchers and match-ups change.)

ONE START OPTIONS:

8/3
Dillon Gee vs. Fla – Hensley
Josh Collmenter @ SF – Vogelsong
Ted Lilly @ SD – Stauffer

8/4
Brett Cecil @ Tb – Davis
Jason Marquis @ Col – Jiminez

8/5
Jeff Karstens vs. SD – Harang
Jake Westbrook @ Fla – Nolasco
Jeff Niemann vs. Oak – Moscoso
Mark Buehrle @ Min – Blackburn

Paul Maholm (CHC vs. Zambrano, SD vs. Moseley) Last five starts a very acceptable 3.12 ERA, home ERA on the year 2.37. You picking up what I’m putting down? Playoff hopes start with Maholm and end with the next dude. Pretty scary proposition.

Kevin Correia (CHC vs. Wells, SD vs. Luebke) I have been riding his roads starts like a saddle, now 2 home starts. Match-up wise it looks pretty favorable, it’s getting to be make or break week for the Pirates, raise the Jolly Roger.

Bronson Arroyo (@Hou vs. Norris, @CHC vs. Wells) I was sitting next to Chris De Burgh at a bar the other day and he started singing in honor of Bronson, sentimental stuff. I’m still looking for a useful fantasy tidbit, skip and come back later. Oh I got something, he is the clubhouse leader in negative WAR. Way to go.

Javier Vazquez (NYM vs. Pelfrey, StL vs. Carpenter) Last 4 starts have been better, fantasy-wise he is the roller coaster that someone died on, but we still want to ride it because we have heard before that it was cool.

Doug Fister (Oak vs. Cahill, @Ana vs. Santana) Reading his stats is like reading an obituary. It has a funny twist at the end of it though, he has 12 losses and is top 20 for SP in WAR.

John Lannan (Atl vs. Lowe, @Col vs. Cook) Last 10, 4-2 and a 3.17 ERA. Free passes are his undoing. Home ERA is 2 runs lower than road. The “You could do worse” starter of the week.

Mike Pelfrey (Fla vs. Vazquez, Atl vs. Jurrjens) Home ERA 3.35. Career low GO/AO. Which means he is giving up a ton of HR’s. Those my friends are ungood for fantasy.

Brian Duensing ( @Ana vs. Santana, CHW vs. Danks) Anyone else think that Santana gets killed in his first start after the no-no? Guess I’m the only one. 3-1 with a 3.50 ERA since July 1st.

Kyle Kendrick (@Col vs. Cook, @SF vs. Lincecum) Somewhere Joe Blanton is sobbing, saying “that should be me.” To me any Philly starter is worth the gamble. Yeah, I went out on a limb there I know. Since June 1st no starter ERA is above 3.70.

Cory Luebke (LAD vs. Kershaw, Pit vs. Correia) He and Moseley have started feeding their teammates Tex-Mex before each of their starts. No word on who supplies the TP. In a funny side note, he is related to Dick Luebke from the 60’s. Yeah, say it twice it’s funnier the second time. Take advantage of the Hodgepodgery.

So I got bored this week and decided to look at some deep rooted stats. I was looking for fantasy pitchers who don’t K a lot but are still very useful for fantasy purposes, and wouldn’t you know it, it relates well to a lot of options this week. These guys get overlooked by everyone. I’m here to learn you something. Not all pitchers who have over a 7 K/9 are candidates for rosterability. There are other factors that lead these low K/9 pitchers to greater success, they have peripherals that are better than the guys we roster. It seems that there is an affection toward pitchers who will get you more K’s but hurt your ERA and WHIP as opposed to getting a starter that has a low K-rate and helps with ERA and WHIP. All the starters I list every week are based off the roster status on multiple fantasy services and I usually use less than 50% ownership (with some variances here and there). So with that, I am telling you not to forget about the guys who get it done but go unnoticed because they aren’t Brandon Morrow. They still help just as much as the “productive” players or guys we think are more productive than they actually are. I ask you this:  Would you rather have an ERA of 2.50 with 6 K’s in two starts or an ERA of 4.50 and 12 K’s in two starts?  I understand that guys contribute to both exist, but are already owned and usually the top 30-40 pitchers overall. I’m merely talking about cusp of the roster guys. Enjoy the week to come. (Please keep in mind that pitchers and matchups change.)

ONE START OPTIONS:

6/28
Clayton Richard vs. KC – Paulino

6/29
Carlos Carrasco @ Bal – Arrieta
Paul Maholm @ Tor – Morrow
Tim Stauffer vs. KC – Chen

6/30
Jeff Karstens @ Tor- Villanueva
Mike Pelfrey @ Det – Verlander

7/1
Juan Nicasio vs. KC – Davies
Tim Wakefield @ HOU – Norris
Bronson Arroyo vs. Cle – Masterson

Kevin Correia (@Tor vs. Reyes, @Was vs. Marquis) Should be a line painter he is so good on the road. Home/away splits are hard to ignore. Go look. See told ya. Lack of K’s make him kind of boring. I have to go dust off my Omar Moreno jersey as I told myself I would never wear it until they reach .500 in July.

John Lannan (@Ana vs. Santana, Pit vs. McDonald) ERA at 1.15 over the last 6 starts. Jump on board and ride the hot hand. Low K guys are the Monty Capuletti of fantasy. The Nats are on a pretty decent roll right now.

R.A. Dickey (@Det vs. Porcello, NYY vs. Garcia) Deserves better. Only one win to show for his 2.35 ERA over the last month. Odd stat o’ the day, Metco is a pitchers haven but his ERA is lower on the road by a run.

Jason Hammel (CHW vs. Floyd, KC vs. Francis) Pitching in Colorado stinks. It’s pretty cut and dry, ERA’s get bloated, WHIP’s get taken to the shed. Pitches just bad enough that his offense can’t help him. Last resort for deep leagues this week.

Jason Marquis (@Ana vs. Pineiro, Pit vs. Correia) Has pitched surprisingly awesome and fits the bill for the above mentioned low K guys. Gets hit around a little but pitches to contact so what do you expect? Home ERA in the mid 2’s.

Jordan Lyles (Tex vs. Wilson, Bos vs. Miller) Two tough matchups, both lineups can hit. Pitched okay last week against the Rangers. The Astros pitchers are horrible to chase wins with. K/BB rate of 4/1. Lefties only hitting .208 against.

Nick Blackburn (LAD vs. Billingsley, Mil vs. Greinke) Yet another low K guy, I can’t make this stuff up. June ERA is 2.04.  Wait, it gets better for the unappreciated, home ERA for the year is 2.40. Matchup names are scary, but anyone seen Minnesota play lately. No, go ask Buster Poindexter then.

Ryan Vogelsong (@CHC vs. Davis, @Det vs. Scherzer) You see that thing in the horizon, yeah that’s the ship that sailed. I pimped and pimped for as long as I could but he finally graduated to usefulness. Who is the next american pitcher to come back from Japan? I did the research for ya, it’s Bryan Bullington.

Andrew Miller (@Phi vs. Lee, @Hou vs. Lyles) Watched his first start, he pitched okay, and it was against the Friars. K potential is nice, being a tether ball isn’t. I asked Jerry Remy after the game what he thought, his quote “Not now, kid.” Dynamite stuff, Remdog.

Brandon Beachy (@Sea vs. Bedard, Bal vs. Britton) Prolly the most added guy in any league or format for the next week. The 11 K outing makes everyone think “I want some of that goodness.” Only bad thing I can see is he may give up some taters… Mmmm taters.

We’re going streaming! No? Okay, it’s just me then. As I was doing the research for this week, two things happened. One, I threw up at the possibility of adding any of these lower end guys. Secondly, I kept thinking that maybe I am losing touch with the fantasy world. Has one week really shifted to a baseball tangent of have-nots having relevant value. I’m befuddled at the lack of value for this week’s streaming party. With all the lower end pitching that is out there we get 2 start games from possibly the worst 4 teams in baseball (with their respective options for fantasy goodies). I am upset and demand a pamphlet or at least a seminar on how this happened. This week may be a decent week for you to string along 2 or 3 separate one start pitchers instead. I have included a small list of them as well for your viewing enjoyment. So as you read this, approach with caution and just be confident of the fact that better times are coming for two start pitchers. Good luck. (Please be aware that pitchers and match ups change)

One Start options:
Phil Coke – @Sea vs. Fister 4/19
Esmil Rogers – SF vs. Sanchez4/19
R.A. Dickey – Hou vs. Norris 4/20
Jon Garland – Atl vs. Lowe 4/20
Charlie Morton – @Fla vs. Nolasco 4/20
Josh Tomlin – @KC vs. O’Sullivan 4/21
Kyle Lohse – Was vs. Gorzellany 4/21
Derek Holland – KC vs. Francis 4/22
Clayton Richard – Phi vs. Blanton 4/22

Kevin Correia (@Cin-Wood, Was- Hernandez) – Looked good for 5 innings in last start, unfortunately it isn‘t tee-ball. Lack of K’s is unappealing. Staff aces on mediocre teams get no love.

Jake Westbrook (Was-Lannan, Cin-Lecure) – By name he looks awesome this week. By performance, one would think Duncan hates his guts. Let’s be honest he is a lunch pail ground ball pitcher — no more, no less.

Sam LeCure (Ari-Galarraga, @STL-Westbrook) – 2nd start may be in question with DL returnees Bailey and Cueto. Does a really great Robert Smith impression for his Quebec-based cover band. Seems destined to be in and out of rotation all year.

John Lannan (@STL-Westbrook, @Pit-Maholm) – Decent career numbers against the ‘Lou. Better match-ups this week than the last 2, Nats need to start hitting, starting to be referenced with the Mariners.

Brandon Beachy (@LA-Kuroda, @SF-Lincecum) – Ugh and yuck. Doesn’t seem to be getting any easier for the sleeper. 2 rough road starts.

Jason Vargas (Det-Scherzer, Oak-Anderson) – One bad start in between 2 decent. Can’t trust a team that doesn’t score, plain and simple.

Dustin Moseley (@CHC-TBD, Phi-Lee) – Only given up 4 ER all year in 3 decent starts. Hodgepadre indeed.

Bruce Chen (Cle-Carrasco, @Tex-Holland) – Last 10 starts dating back to last year, 7-1 with a 3.45 ERA. I can’t make stuff up like that.

Fausto Carmona (@KC-Davies, @Min-Liriano) – Unreliable, best word I can think of. Based on match-ups though it makes sense. Minny has 3, count them 3 HR’s all year. The Indians are getting it done though, don’t have the talent to sustain but will be a headache for awhile.

Jonathon Niese (Hou-Rodriquez, Ari-Galarraga) – Last 2 starts not so hot, next 2 pale in comparison by offensive measures. Two starts at Metco, a resounding… maybe. The Wandwagon has lost its wheels and is now a sled and ‘Almost Perfect’ has been anything but.