Fantasy Baseball Advice

J.A. Happ threw a complete game shutout yesterday with only 6 baserunners and 10 Ks vs.  Jorge de la Rosa’s 5 IP, 7 ER, 3 Ks line.  I pretty much saw this matchup going almost exactly opposite.  Maybe I had my contacts in backwards.  dlR had won seven games in a row.  Happ was coming off two losses.  dlR’s a lefty, the Phils don’t hit lefties well.  Maybe I underestimated Happ’s desire to stay in the rotation with Pedro breathing down his neck.  This was a solid case for that, but if the Phils don’t pull Happ from the rotation they’re jeopardizing his 2010 (when people take flying cars to the ballpark).  Happ should be moved to the bullpen and Pedro should be put into the rotation.  Even if that means Pedro throws a bunch of 4 inning, 3 run games and Happ comes in in the 5th inning and throws three dominant innings.  It’s the right move for everyone and I think that’s the way the Phils should/will go.  To clarify, this is not an endorsement of Pedro.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

David Wright – HR yesterday.  As I said yesterday in the comments, “(The Mets play-by-play man, Cohen, said) that was (Wright’s) first opposite field homer in the new park.  For a guy that goes that way, that’s not great.  After all, we’re in August.”  And that’s me quoting me quoting Gary Cohen!  Cohen also said the humidity may be helping the ball carry.  So now Metco is Yellowstone instead of the Grand Canyon.  Sah-weet.

Jon Niese – Out for the season.  Surprisingly, the Mets trainer had time to help him off the field.

Gary Sheffield – Left the game with an injury.  It’s The Curse of the Shirtless Bernazard.

Pablo Sandoval – 3-for-4, .334 on the season.  I think the average comes down a bit by the end of the season (not much).  But Pablo’s been an absolute revelation this year — .374 on the season as a righty.  .314 as a lefty.  .382 in home games.  17 homers.  4 steals.  Catcher eligibility.  Same weight as Kyle Blanks and seven inches shorter.  In the beginning of the year, I mentioned that I thought Sandoval looked a lot like Edgar Martinez.  I still think it.  And he’s affectionately nicknamed Kung-Fu Panda because he’s athletic and fat.  (I would’ve went with the other athletic, fat person nickname — The Fabulous Moolah.)

Chad Gaudin – 3 1/3 IP, 6 ER.  I should’ve made a bigger deal of this when I did it, but the other day I dropped Gaudin in all of my leagues.  He’s consistently been better in road games.  A HodgePadre who can’t pitch at Petco makes no sense to me.  I don’t know what to do with that.  Makes me feel like Rainman when he can’t watch Jeopardy.

Will Venable – Another HR.  Okay, sorta on topic, sorta not, but I’ve been meaning to address this.  There’s no reason to ask me something like, “Venable or Velez for the rest of the year?”  The rest of the season?  These guys may not be good by the middle of August.  The rest of the season only applies if you play in a league where you have a limited number of moves or you’re marrying a von Bülow.  Don’t get attached to anyone in your UTIL spot, MI or fifth outfield spot.  I have Kyle Blanks, Wigginton, David Murphy, Velez, Venable, Beckham, Robot Jones and Gomes on different teams (thankfully).  I can guarantee you I won’t have 90% of those guys in two weeks.  In fact, I just dropped Gomes.  Play the hot guy and move on.  Especially at this time of the year.  Okay, school’s out, Alice Cooper.

David Murphy – 2 HRs yesterday.  As mentioned above, I own him on a few teams.

Kevin Gregg – Returned from a tired arm.  Piniella was annoyed that Gregg didn’t mention he was suffering from a tired arm over the weekend when he blew two saves, saying, “I can’t just read somebody’s mind.  I can look at the stuff, but by the time I look at the stuff, it’s a little late.  The ball’s out of the ballpark and the mojito doesn’t taste as good.”  He sounds like LaRussa.

Francisco Liriano – 5 IP, 4 ER, 12 baserunners vs. a team that was selling at the trade deadline.  You’re really wasting your time with Liriano.

Aaron Laffey – 8 IP, 0 ER.  If you pick him up, you will be Sobby.

Edwin Jackson – 8 IP, 2 ER, 8 Ks.  As you can imagine, I don’t root for players I don’t own, but I’m kinda rooting for Edwin.  He’s been at the game ever since honeys been wearin’ Sassoons.  Nice that he’s finally making good.  Man, I really love prospects who fail at first.

John Lannan – 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 Ks.  He can just as easily get shelled in his next start out vs. the Braves.  I’m pessimistically cautious going forward.

Gerardo Parra – 2-for-5 and a steal, as he bats almost .400 over his last 7 games.  I’m picking him up in a few leagues, though his lack of legit speed bores me so he may not stay on any team too long.

Ryan Roberts – Now has 3 homers in the last two days.  I still don’t think this is going anywhere you wanna go, but if you’re hurting at MI, it won’t hurt to grab him.

Erik Bedard – His shoulder is still sore and he’s headed for an MRI.  Punt!

Justin Upton – Strained oblique (vague!).  Hopefully it’s not too bad, but unfortunately these are the sort of injuries that linger like poorly chewed jalapenos.

Adam Dunn – Hit his 29th homer yesterday.  Country strong.

Jim Thome – 2 HRs yesterday.  Country stronger.

Gavin Floyd – 8 IP, 1 ER.  Absolutely incredible the year he’s putting together in his home park.  Around a two and a half ERA at home, while over 5.50 ERA away.

Jason Bay – HR yesterday.  It was his first one since July 7th.  Good sign!  Reaggravated his hamstring injury.  Bad sign!

Marc Rzepczynski – 6 IP, 4 ER, 7 Ks.  Only one walk, which is a good sign for The RZE, but I still wouldn’t own him this year.

Justin Lehr – 9 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Here’s what you do with Justin Lehr.  Photoshop Justin Lehr’s name onto Stephen Strasburg’s college stats page, then screenshot it and post the .jpg in your league messageboard.

David Price – 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 Ks, 0 walks.  Nice showing vs. the Sawx.  Very nice to see him string back-to-back starts together.  Let’s hope his next start vs. the Angels is his third step forward.

Prince Fielder – Stole a base yesterday.  After the game, he said he pictured Mota’s face on the 2nd base bag.

Garrett Jones – HR yesterday.  You know how you love a guy for a week or two when he’s out of his mind, hitting homers every game, then he goes through a week slump and you’re ready to drop him.  Then the day you prepare to drop him, he hits a homer.  Now are you excited by this latest homer or annoyed?  I kinda get annoyed.  I just want him to fail one more day so I can drop him.  I gotta talk to my shrink about what that means.

It’s been over a month since we took a look at some pitchers who are pitching over their heads.  Last time, we saw Cueto, Porcello, Millwood, Saunders, Lilly, Cahill and Gallardo were due for a correction.  Since then, they’ve had Liquid Paper dumped all over their stats.  Also, on that list were Matt Cain, Zach Duke and John Lannan.  6 of 10 pitchers pitched poorly since the last time I told you they would, Gallardo’s been marginally worse and Zach Duke’s been marginally the same.  That’s pretty bad odds against the pitchers on this list.  A few are still on here as they’re still pitching over their head.  For a refresher course on what the eff I’m even talking about with FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), take Exhibit A pitcher who has an ERA of 2.75 but his FIP is a 6.75.  A -4.00 difference.  That means he’s been very lucky and there’s a good chance his ERA is going to go way up.  So here’s a list of pitchers with the biggest difference between their actual ERAs and their FIPs. (If your guy’s on the list, it’s not a great sign.)

Matt Cain – -1.63 difference.  Cain’s regression is defying gravity.

J.A. Happ – -1.23.  Then throw in his home park and the Phils will have to start limiting his innings.  Or, at least, they should.  But after their handling of Hamels last year, they may not.

Edwin Jackson – -1.19.  Ouch!  That was Edwin Jackson landing on top of Aaron Hill in the giant pile of Guys You Already Got So Much Value From That If You Want More You’re Just Being Greedy.

Kevin Millwood – -1.19.  He still has a ways to go before we see the Millwood we know and don’t own in fantasy baseball.

John Lannan – -1.13.  The terrible K/9 and the team behind him makes him questionable anyway.  I recently owned him for his start vs. the Padres.  Got a 8 inning, 1 earned run game from him.  Then I dropped him.

Jarrod Washburn – -1.12. It’s only because his ERA is currently a 2.64.  You don’t really think he’s a sub-3 ERA pitcher, right?  Rhetorical!

Wandy Rodriguez – -1.01.  No!!!  Anyone but Wandy, please.  Here, take my Catfish Hunter 1978 RC Cola Player Soda Can.  Just leave Wandy alone!

Trevor Cahill – -.97. Since he currently has over a 5 ERA, he shouldn’t be on your team anyway.

Joba Chamberlain – -.91. If his mom, Anne Ramsey, catches him on this list, there will be trouble.

Jason Bay has been terrible.  Like Don Mattingly’s wife in a mugshot terrible.  In June, J-Bay hit .230 and 4 homers, but he was hitting the cover off the ball in June compared to July.  In July, he’s hitting .203 with 1 homer.  This month Garrett Jones has hit more homers during REM sleep.  The optimist in me says Bay will hit 15 homers and .300 the rest of the way with ten steals.  The pessimist in me thinks he’ll be benched in favor of Chris Duncan.  The realist looks at all of his splits and sees a guy that has been consistent throughout his career, minus a season (2007) when he was battling knee problems.  The surrealist in me thinks Bay will hit a line drive up the middle that will ricochet off the pitcher and shoot to the 1st baseman who will smack the ball into center, then the ball will slowly roll back towards the infield until God tilts the field and the ball rolls towards the 3rd baseman, but God tilts too far and the field freezes causing the ball to roll back towards the catcher.  In all likelihood, Bay’s 2nd half should be somewhere in the realist realm (though it would be cool if the surrealist was spot-on).  I think Bay can give you 10+ homers, .280 average and a handful of steals.  Right now, I’m actively trying to acquire him in one league.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Erik Bedard – Back to the DL.  In related news, George Sherrill was an All-Star in 2008, Adam Jones in 2009 and Chris Tillman is about to be called up.

Ted Lilly – After he was rocked by the Phils, I said he might end up on the DL.  Lo and behold, voilà, alas, see that, told ya so, etc.  Lilly’s now on the DL.  Will miss about a month.

Kevin Millwood – Left after two innings because of tightness in his glutes.  That never bothered Richard Simmons.

Chad Gaudin/John Lannan – 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners and 8 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, respectively, with two no decisions.  Watching the Nats and Padres really tested my love for baseball.  I don’t want to test fate for the off chance Tom Paciorek is rehired, but listening to Bob Carpenter and Dibble is like sitting next to Ted Striker on an airplane.

Ryan Zimmerman – Since May when he hit .342, he’s hitting .238 with 5 homers and nary a steal.  This guy has 9 homers and is batting .260.  This guy is Kevin Kouzmanoff.

Everth Cabrera – It was about five games ago, I said I’m selling back all of my old EverCab CDs at Amoeba, now he has 4 straight games with a steal.  SAGNOF!

Kyle Blanks – HR yesterday.  Rudy’s pride and joy now has three homers in the last week (while batting about .240).

Daric Barton – 2-for-4, after he finally did something he left the game with a hamstring strain.  If he were a bigger name, he could have had the lead with the title, Barton Fink.

Dallas Braden – 5 2/3 IP, 7 ER and 16 baserunners.  I sat him in The Jetstream.  I’m going to give him his next start vs. the Blue Jays at home.  If that doesn’t work out, then bye-bye Braden.

Brett Gardner – Headed to the DL with a broken left thumb.  So much for the Fonzie impersonations.

Brett Cecil – 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 Ks.  Sticking with the newly-established Brett theme, Cecil now has three solid starts in a row and gets Oakland next.

Joe Blanton – 8 IP, 2 ER, 6 Ks.  Now has a 2.55 ERA through the last two months.  I’ve been starting him everywhere for the last three weeks in a 12 team league.  I’d own him in a 10 team league at this point.

Julio Lugo – Batting .571 since the trade to the Cards and has a homer and a steal.  Lugo wouldn’t be the first middle infielder lemon that LaRussa turned into lemonade.

John Smoltz – 5 IP, 6 ER.  I know he had a lot of great years.  But your nostalgia is hurting you like when you sneak off into your attic and look at photos of you with your one true love.  Burn the photos, man.  She’s married with kids.

Nolan Reimold – .417 and three steals since The Break.  No idea where this newfound speed is coming from, but he’s capable of a few week streak where he’s ownable in all leagues.

Kelly Johnson – 3-for-4, HR and steal yesterday.  Whatever Yunel was drinking last week, Johnson seems like he’s bogarting it now.

Jason Schmidt – 3 IP, 4 ER.  Yup, sounds about right.

Russell Martin – Hit his third homer yesterday.  He would be leading the league if this were April 7th.

Anthony Swarzak – 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER.  I wouldn’t pick him up with your team.

Seth Smith – 1-for-2, 1 steal.  After being declared the starting left fielder, he didn’t get the start Friday or Saturday.  Obviously Jim Tracy put starting in quotes.

Aaron Cook – 7 IP, 2 ER and the Win.  The third starter I had going yesterday in my crapfecta of pitchers (the other two were Lannan and Gaudin).  As I’ve said (numerous times) before, there is so much pitching out there you don’t have to have the exciting names (Liriano, Ervin Santana, Smoltz, Porcello, any number of rookie pitchers) to be competitive in pitching.  Boring works too.

Justin Morneau – 2 HRs yesterday as he makes his case for MVP.  Judge Grey presiding in the case of Morneau versus the AL field.  Without the runs and A-Rod hanging with Madge, what do you got?  A sucka in a uniform callin’ his shot…

Ervin Santana – 3 2/3 IP, 6 ER.  He’s mocking you now.  You took the flier; it didn’t work.  Let him go.  You’ll feel much better when he’s doing this to someone else’s team.

Gerardo Parra – Rico Suave’s mocking me now.  I held him for so long in a deep league.  Since I dropped him last week (4 games ago), 2 homers, 7 RBIs, 4 Runs and one steal.

Tony Pena Jr. – To go reverse Ankiel on us and become a pitcher.  If you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em…

With Wakefield headed to the DL with a bad back (can’t he throw his knuckleball while sitting down?), Clay Buchholz will step into the Sawx rotation.  In 99 innings of Triple-A, Buchholz had a line of 2.36/.98 and 89 Ks.  His walks were down this year in the minors, though he did walk 3 in his only major league start this year vs. the Blue Jays.  Buchholz should be owned in all leagues, 10 team or deeper.  If he pitches well vs. the Rangers (though I wouldn’t start him in all formats), he may become even better trade bait for your team.  I doubt Buchholz stays in the rotation the rest of the year and, even if he does, he had a 6.75 ERA last year.  I’d imagine this year you’re looking at around a 4 ERA.  Your ability to sell on Buchholz may close quicker than you can incorrectly spell his last name.  In keepers, I’d hold tight.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Psyche!  A bit of housekeeping before we get into today’s roundup.  Razzball’s Fantasy football leagues are forming and we’ve unveiled our Fantasy Football Team Name Generator (with some additional categories that weren’t on the Fantasy Baseball Team Name Generator).  Okay, now for the roundup…

Roy Halladay – J.P. Ricciardi says the ace must be traded by July 28th or he won’t be moved.  As for why July 29th-31st wouldn’t work, Ricciardi cited airings of Top Chef Masters, then reruns of CSI: Miami and Bones.

Franklin Gutierrez – The Big FraGu went FUBAR into the center field wall.  The Mariners are saying he’s day-to-day.  I have to assume he’s a-day-or-two-or-three-days.  The newspaper reporting this, The News Tribune, said when you saw the photo of The Big FraGu on the ground “you had to be absolutely freaking out.” Direct quote.  Hey, I’m no newspaper writer, but when did “absolutely freaking out” become AP style?  I blame Woodward and Bernstein.  That’s right, the guy who wrote “gloryholz” in his title is calling someone out for “absolutely freaking out.”  Deal with it!

Wladimir Balentien – HR yesterday filling in for the InJured FraGu.  If Balentien gets some time, then he’s worth a look in AL-Only leagues or leagues that require you to have one player with the name Wladimir.

Jack Hannahan – 2 HRs.  He’s doing much better since he was demoted from the job of Nats closer.

Rick Porcello – 5 IP, 5 ER.  I know you ordered raw, but he’s done.  Also, Leyland’s saying he’s going to pull the plug on him to keep his innings down.

Braden Looper – 7 IP, 0 ER, 1 K.  Good for Looper, but I feel bad for the guy who lugged all those cardboard Ks to the game.

John Lannan – Shutout vs. Guess who.  Hint the Padres were facing the Marlins.  Still nothing?  C’mon, the Metropolitans!

Oliver Perez – 6 IP, 4 ER, 6 BBs.  Perez is a pitching dynamo.  (Dynamo, as defined by Merriam-Webster’s, is a generator, especially one for producing direct current.  A dynamo is also rarely useful in modern days.)

Miguel Montero – HR yesterday as he bats .583 in the last 7 games and .380 in July.  He might be Pipp’ing Snyder.

Ervin Santana – 6 IP, 5 ER vs. the peasant Royals.  Belch.

Erick Aybar – 7-for-9 in the doubleheader.  Hitting .469 so far in July.  Johnny Olson, let’s see what’s behind schmohawk MI door number three… It’s Erick Aybar!  I picked him up in a 12 team league.  I suggest you do too.

Everth Cabrera – Speaking of MI schmohawks.  Steals aren’t worth this much to me.  I dropped him for the aforementioned Aybar.

Max Scherzer – 4 IP, 4 ER, 6 Ks.  Wait, I know that line!  It’s Clayton Kershaw, right?  Wow, great impersonation, Scherzer.

Brian McCann – Hit his 10th homer yesterday.  Has a 33/10/46/.305/3 line on the year.  Member when you wanted to get rid of him because he was getting his eyes checked for two weeks?  Yeah, you.  Couldn’t be?  Then who?

Yunel Escobar – 2-for-4, 1 RBI.  He’s as hot as Erick Aybar (<–actually a compliment).

Sergio Mitre – 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER.  If he gives that line every time out and gets the Win for the Yanks, they’ll be more than happy.  You should not be.

Joe Blanton – 7 IP, 1 ER.  If you told me in March, I’d not only own Blanton, but I’d be starting him at home and be happy about it, I would’ve called you a liar.  *phone rings*  Hello?  Yes, this is Grey… Who?  This is the Time Traveler’s Wife?  You told me in March I’d own Blanton?  Liar!

Jayson Werth – Hit his 21st home run yesterday to win the game in the… blah blah blah… You don’t care who wins, do you?  Werth’s on his way to a monster season.  As George Lucas tells his ILM peeps, put the emphasis on the monster.

Jimmy Rollins – HR yesterday, batting .375 in July.  I’m not going to tell you how many times I told you in June to buy Rollins.

Brett Cecil – 7 IP, 0 ER, 9 Ks.  Honestly, he should be owned and talked about more, but there’s only so many letters I can type per day.  (About 12,700 +/- 20)  Cecil has solid stuff and the Ks aren’t a fluke.  He gets the Rays next (pass!), but he should get the A’s and the O’s after that, assuming everything stays quid pro bono unum.  He’s a decent spot start for those two. (Hey, sometimes to get the good starts, you gotta look ahead.)

Jed Lowrie – 1-for-3, 0 Runs and 0 RBIs.  T-Minus one day until I drop him.  Better hide under your desk.

Wandy Rodriguez – 7 IP, 1 ER. Daily Roundup Mad-Libs, And the  ________ rolls on.

Mark DeRosa – Hit his first and second homers as a Card.  The trade is finally paying off!  Wait, the Cards lost.

Homer Bailey – 2 2/3 IP, 6 ER.  If there’s such a thing as a minor league fantasy baseball league that counts only minor league stats, I’d hold Bailey.  Everywhere else, belch.

Manny Ramirez – Left after being hit by a Homer Bailey pitch.  Good to see Bailey not happy with just pissing off his owners.  Manny is said to be day-to-day.

Andrew Bailey – Given up runs in his last two appearances and he’s suffering from a sore knee.  Save vultures activate… In the form of Michael Wuertz.

Jonny Gomes – HR yesterday, cause that’s what he do.

Bobby Jenks – 1 IP, 2 ER and now has given up earned runs in four of his last five outings.  I’d own Linebrink if you have room.  Something might be jenky with Bobby.

John Danks – Will miss a start with a blister issue.  He pointedly said it was a blister, not a cold sore.

There’s a few people who are going to understand what FIP is.  The people who scored a 2400 on the SATs.  Or 1600 if you’re old school, literally.  The people who use a Bunsen Burner to light their pipe.  The people who know what is in a Twinkie.  You know, real smart people.  Me?  I just know that Twinkies are delicious.  Luckily, there’s people out there that figure out these highfalutin numbers like FIP and give ‘em to us plain and simple.  Okay, so let’s take a Exhibit A pitcher who has an ERA of 2.75 but his FIP is a 6.75.  A -4.00 difference.  That means he’s been very lucky and there’s a good chance his ERA is going to go way up.  So here’s a list of pitchers with the biggest difference between their actual ERAs and their FIPs. (If your guy’s on the list, it’s not a great sign.)

Kevin Millwood – -2.06 difference.  Surprise, surprise or no surprise, no surprise.  Either way, Millwood has been getting lucky on balls in play, leaving a ton of guys on base that should be scoring and, before yesterday, hadn’t been striking out anyone.  The summer months in Arlington + Millwood = Uh-oh.

Matt Cain – -1.72.  Seems like this guy’s been a sell high guy since his first start of the season.  Here’s the thing, stranding almost 90% of baserunners is SS Minnow-type numbers.  Hold him, and you may end up looking like Gilligan.

John Lannan – -1.71.  Few strikeouts, plenty of walks, Nats pitcher, lucky on balls in play… I think you’ve heard enough.

Johnny Cueto – -1.54. He’s cut his walks this year, which is a good sign, and his FIP is only 4.10 so that’s not terrible.  He’s young and will probably tire as the season goes on so he’s a decent sell candidate, but I wouldn’t move him for an Intellivision, unless old school video games are your thing.

Trevor Cahill – -1.18.  He’s in a similar boat as Lannan.  No Ks, plenty of walks, a team that doesn’t score many…  Blech.

Rick Porcello – -1.14.  He may have a correction in July and August, then, because of his age, he’ll probably get shutdown towards the end of August.  Or he’ll have starts skipped.

Zach Duke – -1.03. His FIP is only 4.21.  You’ll take that mark on the year from Duke and like it.

Joe Saunders – -1.02.  I’ve been saying not to buy this guy since the preseason, so I don’t need to say more, right?

Ted Lilly – -1.02, which is a 4.06 and he’s about a 4 ERA pitcher so that’s not surprising. With his Ks, he’s well worth owning.

Yovani Gallardo – -1.01.  It bummed me out to see him on this list.  He’s pitching closer to a 4 than a 3 ERA.  Luckily, he’s K’ing over 9 batters per nine.  I’d put that in my pipe and light it with my Bunsen Burner any day of the week.