Fantasy Baseball Advice

Holy heffin’ hey, could arguably the best pitcher in baseball just get better? Well, yeah. Talked to a friend that is a Mets fan. This was his reaction, “We just got ourselves to the World Series. Who beats us? The Rockies? The Phillies? The Cubs? Padres? Please, their best hitter is Gonzalez. Maine/Santana, with our offense… Bring on October.” There’s a case to be made that he was right. I have a few random thoughts on the trade that sends Santana to the Mets.

–Johan Santana moves to a park where he has lifetime .60 ERA. This changes in ’09, but until then it’s a pitcher’s park.

–One thing that bothered me about Santana (and, frankly, there wasn’t a whole lot), he didn’t dominant the Indians, a team he faced a lot. He will now face hitters that are not as familiar with him.

–In the NL, marginal pitchers seem appealing. I found room for Brett Tomko when he was on the Dodgers and Padres. Great pitchers… They’re first rounders.

–I’m absolutely giddy to see how much Santana will go for in my NL-only auction. $40? $45? $50? Sold!

–I still like Peavy more. Before it was clear cut. Now it’s a tossup and I can see an argument that they’re interchangeable. The Padres face two weak divisional teams, Giants and Dodgers with the D-Backs a bit of a challenge but not much. Then there’s one offensive juggernaut in an offensive stadium, the Rockies. The Mets face the Nats and the Marlins, which is akin to the Dodgers and Giants. The Phillies are equal to the Rockies. The Braves are a bit of a challenge, akin to the D-Backs.

–Santana will now face pitchers and he doesn’t have to face Dontrelle. I’m Tivo’ing Santana pitching to Brett Myers.

–Santana in the NL…. This all seems unfair for the Senior Circuit’s junior batsmen, right?

We’ve tackled where to draft the top twenty catchers, 1st basemen, 2nd basemen, 3rd basemen, shortstops and outfielders. It’s time to toe the rubber and try and make sense of the starting pitchers for ‘08. Pitching always rates as the most valuable category for fantasy baseball and also the least predictable. You build your dream house overlooking the ocean. Every accouterment you can imagine; Sub-Zero refrigerator, 50” wall-mounted plasma and a top-of-the-line hibachi grill. Unfortunately, the cost for the personal Benihana chef forced you to skimp on plumbing and you end up with a river of feces running through your living room. A fantasy team is similar. You don’t want to build your dream team by splurging on offense, because then you’ll have to skimp on pitching, leaving you with a river of feces in the form of Kip Wells.

Without further ado, the top twenty pitchers to draft for ’08. If you want to see how the pitchers did fantasy-wise for ‘07, here’s our player rater.

1. Jake Peavy – See our top ten overall for projections.

2. Johan Santana – See our top twenty overall for projections.

3. Brandon Webb – Full disclosure: I got burned on Webb the year he was simply average (‘04) and I haven’t gone near him since. I’ve seen him garner top twenty overall status for ’08 drafts and, at this point, I can’t really argue. I would never draft a pitcher in the first or second rounds unless Peavy or Santana fell to me at the end of the 2nd round, but, with that said, Webb’s looking more and more solid. Only injury can stop him. Projections: 19-7/190/3.10/1.20

4. C.C. Sabathia – I’ve never had the fat Dontrelle on any team ever, but that’s not to say I wouldn’t. He’s in his prime and his numbers are peaking. Carrying around that extra poundage can’t be great for his legs, but he’s still young. Projections: 20-9/210/3.40/1.15

5. Erik Bedard – Filthy stuff, awful division to be a pitcher in. Not sure he can build on his ’07, but if he can maintain the torso, he’s easily a top ten pitcher. Projections: 16-10/230/3.30/1.10

6. Aaron Harang – Maybe this will be the year he gets draft early by flb-ers or maybe not, but I definitely will. He’s a workhorse that only struggles in the win department, and that can’t really be helped by him. One caveat: Dusty might have him averaging 140 pitches/game. Projections: 17-10/220/3.75/1.15

7. Cole Hamels – The future has arrived for the Phillies ace. If he stays away from injury, he battles Peavy for the Cy Young. Not sure how early I’m going to draft him, but he’ll be on one of my ’08 teams. (Conservative bet, I’ll probably have to draft him in the fourth round overall.) Projections: 20-7/210/3.20/1.10

8. Dan Haren – He was dominant before the trade and going to the NL is a boon to his value. He’s a bit prone to the longball and now that he’s in a hitter’s park has me a bit concerned. Projections: 17-9/210/3.60/1.20

9. Josh Beckett – Everything broke right last year for Beckett. He only walked forty batters all year. 40! He’s still an injury risk, but he can win seventeen games for the Sox with a 4.50 ERA (No arrigato, Dice-K), and I think his ERA will be better than that. Projections: 19-9/190/3.90/1.20

10. Roy Oswalt – Wins might be a problem for him, but getting hitters out has never been. His strikeouts have begun to decline and he’s said himself that he’s just trying to get hitters out, no matter how. Seems like he’s treading close to the NL version of Roy Halladay. Projections: 15-7/150/3.60/1.22

11. John Lackey – This is my preseason pick for ’08 AL Cy Young. (Remember, Cy Young doesn’t always equate to best pitcher.) The Angels have some more experience for their younger players and Torii Hunter. They should get Lackey the wins and he can do the rest. Projections: 20-5/180/3.00/1.20

12. Carlos Zambrano – He was out of his mind wild at times last year and he was still a quality starter to have on a fantasy team. If he got through Dusty and Barrett, the rest is icing and he obviously loves icing. Projections: 16-7/210/3.60/1.30

13. Roy Halladay – Is it me or is he starting to seem like he’s getting old? He no longer strikes out hitters at a good enough rate to rank him higher, but he doesn’t walk hitters either. Unfortunately, he does give up a lot of hits. I’m worried about Halladay and won’t be drafting him this year. You can do what you do. Projections: 15-7/120/4.00/1.25

14. Chris Young – He’s a flyball pitcher in the best flyball pitcher park. His division is light-hitting and he’s on a contender. What more do you need to know? Oh, I know. His height causes him to have back pain and his height is not going away. Projections: 15-5/160/3.00/1.10 and he only pitches in a 150 innings.

15. John Maine – He’ll be 27 in ’08, he’s got the experience under his belt from the last two years and he’s on a team that will score for him. He can easily be in the top ten for the ’09 preseason, act accordingly. Projections: 18-9/210/3.60/1.20

16. Justin Verlander – I was surprised by his ’07 season. There’s was no letdown from his ’06 campaign. If he continues to top his numbers, Lackey may have company for the AL Cy Young. Projections: 19-7/200/3.75/1.20

17. John Smoltz – At some point, he’s going to get old, right? I mean, he has to, doesn’t he? You don’t want to be there when it happens. If you can get him at a bargain rate, take the gamble. Projections: 16-7/160/3.75/1.22

18. James Shields – Kazmir gets the attention and Shields will win you your league. He had 184 Ks to 36 walks last year. Phenomenal. His wins may not be great on the Rays, but his ratios and Ks will be outstanding. Projections: 14-6/185/3.75/1.10

19. Felix Hernandez – Don’t forget about F-Her just because you want to forget about his ‘07 season. With nasty stuff and only turning 22 this year. He could shoot to the top five pitchers by as early as next year. This may be the last time you’ll be able to get him at a bargain for a decade. Projections: 16-5/185/3.50/1.15

20. Rich Hill – This year will be a great year to have Hill. He doesn’t seem to be too high on anyone’s radar. Reach in and grab him in the middle rounds and you will have what Hamels did last year, this year. Projections: 18-7/200/3.60/1.15

After the top twenty obviously a ton of pitchers (we’ll be putting together the draft list of 21-40 soon), but here’s one name people are giddy about and I’m not:

Fausto Carmona – K/9 was 5.74 and his K/BB was 2.25 in ’07. He’s not going to come at a bargain this year, so take a pass on him and see how he does. Not saying he’ll be egregious, but he may not be what he was last year. Projections: 15-9/120/4.25/1.22 and he has people scratching their heads wondering what happened.

Tomorrow we’ll look at the top twenty closers to draft in ’08.

Yesterday, we went over our top ten here. Today, we’ll go from 11 thru 20. Usually in the first round you can’t go too wrong, but your fantasy team can be hurt with your second choice, depending on where you draft (and I don’t mean Afghanistan as opposed to Virginia). I’ve seen people reach in the 2nd round and it has hurt them. You want as safe as a pick as possible. Only once in the next ten do I go out on a bit of a limb, but we’ll get to that. Without further ado:

11. Jimmy Rollins – You’re thinking right now, “I wish Jimmy Rollins would be there at the 11th pick, but he won’t.” Let’s not forget his thirty home runs were the best of his career and now he’s going to be 30 years old in 2008. So if someone else takes him earlier, c’est la vie. Yes, that may be the only time c’est la vie has ever been written in a fantasy baseball blog. Projections: 130/22/70/35/.290

12. Ryan Howard – If you took Prince Fielder with your number one pick, you may want to look slightly down the list, but, then again, I would strongly consider having Fielder and Howard on the same team, especially if poundage is a category. Projections: 100/50/140/.275

13. Grady Sizemore – According to Indians’ TV commericals, the Ladies love Grady. Well, you will too, if you can grab him here. He’s about to have a season that will push him into the top ten next year. Projections: 120/35/85/.290/30

14. Carl Crawford – He never hit 25 home runs in a season, but he’s still only going to be 27 for 2008. Obviously, you’re coupling this pick with your first round pick, so if you took Jose Reyes in the first round and Crawford is still on the board, you need to pass him up or trade him immediately. But if you took Prince Fielder or Howard, then take Crawford. Projections: 105/15/85/.305/50

15. Johan Santana – I struggled with where to place Santana and I ended up placing him here because I wouldn’t draft him and someone else will before me. So, he’ll probably go sooner than this, but I don’t want him. Not that I think he’ll be bad or that I think he’ll be on the Twins at the start of the season and have trade rumors swirling around him for half the season. I don’t. I just think it’s very important to build around offense early, but that’ll have to wait for another post. Projections (these are likely to change depending on where he ends up in a trade): 18-9/240/3.10/1.06

16. Alfonso Soriano – He’s now 32 in Latin years, which means he’s anywhere from 32 to 40. He slowed down a lot last year and he already has the contract that can keep him in coke and whores for the rest of his life. The years of 30/30 are probably behind him. 115/35/75/.280/20

17. Carlos Lee – El Caballo has put up solid numbers year in and out. He slowed down a bit last year with his lowest steal total since ’02, so that may be a harbinger of things to come, but you want a steady performer in the 2nd round, the horse is your man. Projections: 90/35/120/.295/7

18. Alexis Rios – You wanted the limb; here I am out on it. He’ll be 27 in ‘08 and he’s headed for the first round in ‘09. This may feel like you’re reaching, but trust me, you will not be disappointed. You know what you think Carlos Beltran will do? Well, Rios is about to do it. Get him before one of your leaguemates. Projections: 120/32/110/.300/25

19. Vladimir Guerrero – Just back from his third tour of ‘Nam and his knees have never been worse. He’s got enough natural ability that he’ll still be valuable. Just don’t expect steals anymore. Projections: 105/32/125/.315/3

20. David Ortiz –The knee may be a thing of the past, but something else might just pop up because he has a body type that doesn’t age well. If you were to pass him by for this reason and his eligibility concerns, I would understand. Projections: 115/40/120/.310

After 20 – Many players, obviously, but notably…

Ryan Braun – He’ll probably go before “after 20,” but that’s fine. You don’t want him in ’08. For every McGwire Rookie of the Year, there’s a dozen woulda-shouldas. Let someone else deal with the possible headache, because as stated here by The Baseball Analysts:

The only disconcerting split involves (Braun’s) BB/SO totals against righties. He has drawn five more walks vs. LHP in 151 fewer AB while striking out just 13% of the time as compared to 24% vs. RHP.

Problems with righties could be a problem. Not a good pitching side to struggle against. I’m not saying he will be dreadful; I’m saying he may have his struggles. In the 2nd round, you don’t want to risk it.

A Rays fansite (Now, quiet, they have a few fans. (And, sorry to do a parenthesis inside a parenthesis, but I just wanted to point out I was gonna do that super-snarky thing when a blogger crosses out a word, but you can still read it, but I don’t know how to do strike-throughs. Alas…)) talks about how BROKEN LINKTroy Percival will allow Al Reyes to pitch the 8th inning.(Think this blog threw in the towel. Can’t understand why a Rays fan would do that.) Which is completely true (not that someone wrote that, but that it appears Percy will be the closer), but my question is why. As in, why don’t the Rays want to compete? Reyes was perfectly fine last year. Sure, he wore out as the season progressed, but don’t the Rays have a few more, ahem, fish to fry than signing a closer that retired already? First, they trade away Delmon Young, who could be feasting on major league pitching by as soon as this year, for Matt Garza. Yes, good pitching beats good hitting. We see it every All-Star game and every October. Yes, the Rays’ staff needs help, but Delmon looked like the real deal. Garza, I have my questions about. They could have gotten more. Second, they pick a closer off a scrap heap, to replace the other scrap-heaper. Unbelievable. I think the Rays are trying to pull a Chapter 11 deal like the Marlins. What is with Florida teams?

Over at a Sawx site, they discuss what Manny being Manny might be this year. Supposedly, Gammons has word that Manny’s hitting the weights. I say, Manny’s having Big Papi explain to him how Netflix works, but that’s me. I stand by what I wrote last month about Manny in 2008, but take a gander at what someone else thought.

Over at a Mets site, they talk about giving Pelfrey the ball every fifth day. I completely agree. He showed real promise in September. Not to mention, as the Mets rotation is starting to look, he might be the number two man. Santana for Reyes? Nah, but they better get Santana for someone(s).

Our favorite ESPN columnist, Eric Karabell, crapped out a turd baby as he took a look at some fantasy baseball expert drafts for 2008 (year 5768 for all the Jews researching who to draft besides Shawn Green). His non-take on Hanley Ramirez is really what got my goat, and no one gets my goat, but me. Let’s look to see what Karabell had to say:

I know some people who rank Hanley No. 1, over A-Rod, and I don’t call them crazy. Too many fantasy owners simply, and lazily, look at the 2007 stats and assume that’s what they’re getting. This isn’t the case at all. You’re getting 2008 stats, for better or worse.

Some analysts simply, and lazily, refuse to take a side for fear they’ll be wrong. Hanley is not going to do what he did last year.

A) He doesn’t take enough walks. Stats here, if you don’t believe me.

B) He swings wildly and injures himself. From September, 2007:

The Associated Press is reporting Florida Marlins SS Hanley Ramirez fanned on a high fastball and winced in pain as he dropped the bat during his follow through during the Sept. 3 game against the Washington Nationals.

Later in that month:

The Palm Beach Post’s Joe Capozzi reports Florida Marlins SS Hanley Ramirez is considering having shoulder surgery in the offseason and won’t play winter ball.

In October:

Juan C. Rodriguez, of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel, reports Florida Marlins SS Hanley Ramirez underwent arthroscopic surgery on his left shoulder Wednesday, Oct. 3. Ramirez is not expected to be at full strength for the start of spring training.

C) The Marlins top paid player for 2008 is Jose Castillo. Hanley doesn’t even have Dontrelle to knock in anymore. Could Hanley try and do too much? He might.

Sure, Hanley is a bona fide talent. He can get you 20 homers and 40 steals, but he’s not as safe as Arod, Jose Reyes, Albert Pujols, David Wright, Jimmy Rollins or Chase Utley. Frankly, I might consider Peavy or Johan safer. You want safety with your first pick; Hanley is not it. He has too many question marks.