Fantasy Baseball Advice

We’ve already went over the top 20 catchers for 2008; soon we’ll go over the top 20 2nd basemen for 2008, but right now we’re going over the top 20 1st basemen for 2008. It’s a look back, ya’ll! Don’t worry, soon we’ll look forward, but how you know where you at, if you don’t know where you been? Understand where I’m coming from? B-Real! Looking at the top 20 1st basemen is a lot more exciting than looking at the top 20 catchers for 2008. Because these 1st basemen can actually make a difference? Um, yeah. Dur. As previously noted on this blog, Hardball Times has already looked at our preseason top twenty 1st basemen — that I did on JANUARY 10TH, btw. (Sorry, for the caps, but it’s pretty impressive how right on I am considering when I did the predictions.) Well, now it’s our turn to hold up a reflective surface to our own list. Anyway, here’s the top 20 1st basemen for 2008 and how they compared to where we originally ranked them:

1. Albert Pujols - Going into 2008, Pujols had some question marks due to a lackluster (by his standards) 2007 and a balky elbow. Pujols took a high-grade tear and put up high-grade numbers. Ruth’s Chris USDA Prime, and ya know that! Preseason Rank #1, Preseason Predictions:  110/40/115/.330/2, Final Numbers:  100/37/116/.350/7

2. Lance Berkman - The real difference between the preseason expectations and the actual numbers are the steals, but I’m going to paraphrase something Rudy says, “If speed is not a player’s game, you can’t count on any steals.” Which means you count on steals from Willy Taveras, you do not count on steals from Lance Berkman. Anything you get is a plus. Preseason Rank #7, Preseason Predictions:  110/30/115/.290/5, Final Numbers:  114/29/106/.312/18

3. Mark Teixeira - I thought he’d put up almost exactly the numbers he did put up. Yet, I ranked him at #5 and he came in at #3. What does that tell you? 1st basemen numbers were down? Excellent, Daniel-san. Now catch me something bigger than a fly and put some Catsup on it. Preseason Rank #5, Preseason Predictions:  110/35/120/.305, Final Numbers: 102/33/121/.308/2

4. Aubrey Huff - There’s always a few guys that maintain their hot starts that I will never trust — Cliff Lee, Xavier Nady and Aubrey Huff, to name a few. You can own them; just don’t trust them. To paraphrase what I said earlier in the year, Aubrey Huff reminds me of Mike Lowell. Will he get 15 home runs or will he hit 30? Will he hit .250 or .300? Huff’s an enigma wrapped in a girl’s name. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  96/32/108/.304/4

5. Kevin Youkilis - I was so close in my preseason predictions (I switched Youuuuuuk’s Runs and RBIs because he switched from the top of the lineup to the sixth spot. If people think that’s cheating, here’s something for you), but Youuuuuuuuk jumping from 14th to 5th shows how truly Jason Kendall-weak the first basemen were this year. (This was the point of that Hardball Times article.) I haven’t gone over my research yet for 2009 conclusively, but I do believe 1st base will be a bit deeper next year. This will be something to watch. If your leaguemates overestimate the depth of the 1st basemen position, you could be sitting pretty if you reach for one early. We’ll go over this more during the winter. Preseason Rank #14, Preseason Predictions:  90/21/115/.290/3, Final Numbers:  91/29/115/.312/3

6. Miguel Cabrera - Looks like it was Cabrera that missed Olivo’s hugs more than the other way around. But, in the end, Miguel Cabrera gave about what he always gives minus some runs and average. He’ll probably be in my top ten for 2009. God, I can’t wait for the 2009 season. Is that weird? (Note: Cabrera gained 1st base eligibility during the season so he was only ranked for third basemen. The top twenty third basemen for 2008 will be here next week.) Preseason Predictions:  110/35/125/.315/4, Final Numbers:  84/37/127/.292/1

7. Ryan Howard - Frankly, I want Howard a lot higher than he’s ranked here. His major negative is his average, but you can outweigh that with some high average middle infielders and get exactly what you need from Howard, which is– a recipe for a deep-fried Twinkie? No. Power. Recognize! Preseason Rank #3, Preseason Predictions:  100/50/140/.275, Final Numbers:  105/48/146/.251

8. Justin Morneau - Flyball rate stayed, well, down and the power never really came around this season. His “known” makes him seem more valuable than his actual production at this point. Seems like he’s destined to fall somewhere between five and ten in 1st basemen rankings. Preseason Rank #8, Preseason Predictions:  90/35/110/.275, Final Numbers:  97/23/129/.300

9. Adrian Gonzalez - He’ll prolly be ranked about here for the next five years. Unless he gets traded to Coors. Holy heffin’ hey! Imagine A-Gonz in Coors? Hey, Holliday, don’t worry about that slacker Atkins. I’m here to hit 45 home runs. You’re welcome. Oh, and I’m a chubby chaser. Preseason Rank #9, Preseason Predictions:  90/33/105/.280, Final Numbers:  103/36/119/.279

10. Carlos Delgado - From radio, to the video, to Arsenio… Tell me!  Yo, what’s the best case scenario for Delgado? This yeario, Fife. Preseason Rank #17, Preseason Predictions:  70/28/95/.260, Final Numbers:  96/38/115/.271/1

11. Prince Fielder - You can’t eat salad on a stick! Man up. Preseason Rank #2, Preseason Predictions:  115/50/125/.285, Final Numbers:  86/34/102/.276/3

12. Jorge Cantu - In one of the best threads over in the Razzball forums, I named Cantu as one of my Fantasy MVPs. Poppycock, you say. Okay, but what the eff is poppycock and why are you saying it? When Hafner went down with I-ain’t-got-no-roids-itis and I wanted to commit Pronkicide, I grabbed Delgado or Cantu in just about all of my leagues. Mostly Cantu because he was more available. Anyway, he saved quite a few teams for me. I heart Cantu. Get over it. Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers:  92/29/95/.277/6

13. Derrek Lee - His power really evaporated. There were doubles at the end of ‘07 that seemed to be forecasting a power comeback in ‘08, but it just never happened. Also, I find it fascinating that his runs are so down from my predictions considering the Cubs success this year. Since this is probably only fascinating to me, I’ll move on. Preseason Rank #6, Preseason Predictions:  110/30/115/.290/5, Final Numbers:  93/20/90/.291/8

14. Joey Votto - I steamed up my colored contacts talking about Votto a few times this year — keep Votto? Fo shotto. (Note: I didn’t rank most rookies in the preseason top 20s, but I did make some preseason predictions for rookies.)  Preseason Unranked, Preseason Predictions:  .285/20/75, Final Numbers:  69/24/84/.297/7

15. Jose Lopez - He was unranked, but on April 4th, I told you to pick up Lopez, when I said, “If you have an erection for longer than four hours after you pick up Lopez, you should go see a doctor. But he’s hitting number two on the Mariners. So, well, there’s that. Honestly, he’s young and he’s started off hot.” And that’s me quoting me! I’ll have to look at his numbers closer going forward, but I might like him next year (for 2nd base, obviously). Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 80/17/89/.297/6

16. Conor Jackson - At 26, his power took a step backwards? Who are you — Felipe Lopez? The only adverb I can think of for Conor Jackson is yawstipatingly. I prefer all of the guys ranked below him on this list, except for Loney. Why, Grey? Why so down? Well, random italicized voice, Conor Jackson is only ranked this high because he gave you 10 steals. That’s no reason to have a 1st baseman. You could’ve had an off-waivers Juan Pierre for one good week and got half of that. Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers:  87/12/75/.300/10

17. Garrett Atkins - Watch your toes, everyone. Atkins is taking a step backwards. Home runs have gone from 29 to 25 to 21. In 2009, hello 17 home runs. (Note: Atkins gained 1st base eligibility during the season so he was only ranked for 3rd basemen. In fairness, if I had ranked him, I would’ve placed him higher than 17th.) Preseason Predictions:  85/34/115/.300, Final Numbers:  86/21/99/.286/1

18. Adam Dunn - I’m a huge fan of Dunn. Ain’t that apropos? His average took a hit, but his BABIP shows he was pretty unlucky this year. When a guy aims for .250 gets unlucky, it becomes a sub-.240 average. Zoinks! (Note: Dunn gained 1st base eligibility during the season so he was only ranked for outfielders. In fairness, if I had ranked him, I would’ve placed him higher than 18th.) Preseason Predictions:  100/45/110/.265/7, Final Numbers:  79/40/100/.236/2

19. James Loney - His preseason predictions and his final numbers speak a ton about the problems 1st basemen had this year. See I pegged him for 19th overall amongst 1st basemen and he came in at 19th, you would think his final numbers would be close to his preseason predictions, but his numbers were awful. We get it! 1st basemen numbers were down. School’s out, Alice Cooper. Preseason Rank #19, Preseason Predictions:  95/22/85/.315, Final Numbers:  66/13/90/.289/7

20. Carlos Pena - My instincts back in January were to lower him even further than the 11th place perch where I ranked him. As Malcolm Gladwell would say, “Blink, sucka!” Preseason Rank #11, Preseason Predictions:  85/22/80/.260, Final Numbers:  76/31/102/.247/1

One guy you drafted in the 2nd round. The Ethier guy you drafted in the last round just so you’d have someone to draft when Rauch became the closer for the Nots. One guy will get drafted again in the first five rounds next year; the Ethier guy may be grabbed as a fifth outfielder then dropped when he’s doing a blahtoon with some other Dodgers schmohawk. None of this affects what you are doing for the next two weeks of this season. For realz! No, seriously. For realz! Don’t make me get punny…. Fine! Ethier you want to win or you don’t. No one’s going to say in October, “Hey, you came in 2nd, but at least you held onto Doumit. You owed it to him after all the great games he gave you in June.” Throw your loyalty out the window. Vlad was good okay in the summer, but the Angels have clinched and they’re going to rest their big man. Ethier has been the hottest hitter in all of baseball for over a month. Respectively, that’s buy and sell or drop and add at this point in the season, because they mean the same thing. You knew that though, that’s like Econ 101 in the Fantasy Baseball College of Charleston. Anyway, here’s some fantasy baseball players to buy and sell:

BUY

Kelly Johnson - Mentioned him the other day. Where, Grey? My brain hurts! Pickup Kelly Johnson. BTW, you’re lame, random italicized voice in my head.

Asdrubal Cabrera - Batting close to .500 for the last seven games. At this point, I don’t care that he batted .240 on the year or that his first name is a anal leakage diagnosis. This is September! Act like it! (Sorry, for all the exclamation points, but I just bought a new coffee maker and I’ve been going a bit overboard on the caffeine. Speaking of ‘Overboard,’ at least once a year I’ll talk to my Mom and she’ll be watching this Goldie Hawn classic. It never gets old. I think that’s the ultimate mom movie.)

Joey Votto - In the last two weeks, Votto’s been more valuable than Teixeira, Berkman, Atkins, Youuuuuuk, Adrian Gonzalez, Conor Jackson, Casey Kotchman and Prince Fielder. (I don’t endorse dropping Fielder, no matter how good it might feel.) Votto’s the da bomb as they said in high schools back in 2004.

Rajai Davis - It’s with great pause I suggest this schmohawk. But if you need speed, eff it in the cooley and grab Rajai.

Pablo Sandoval - Maybe he won’t slow down until April. Maybe he’ll hit .330 for the next seven years. Who cares? What, you plan on keeping Pudge for next year?

Brandon Wood - For about two weeks now, I’ve been pushing Wood hard. Um… Wait. No, that’s what I meant.

Blake DeWitt - He has 2nd base elgibility. Holy heffin’ hey, are you kidding me?! He’s in Coors this weekend. Why isn’t he on your team? What, you have Polanco? Ugh. I’ll never understand you. Never!

Jesse Litsch - No, I don’t really like the Jays pitcher/slash Rays ex-bat boy, but I do right now. Just be careful against the Sawx next time out.

James Parr - Has yet to give up a run, but that could end in a big way or not. You have to take chances in the final weeks when players like Lackey are being skipped because their club clinched.

Kevin Slowey - I already explained why I think Slowey’s a keeper. Why would you want me to repeat myself?

Bronson Arroyo - I hate this schmohawk as much as the next guy, but he’s pitching well. You have to take some chances in these final weeks.

Taylor Teagarden - 4 HRs in 24 at-bats.

SELL

Gerald Laird - 6 HR in 305 at-bats. See a quarter of an inch above.

John Lackey - Mentioned him above. I know what you’re thinking. His two starts are better than most guy’s three starts. True, but what if they pull him after 5 innings of the 2nd start because they just want him to throw. Or maybe he pitches surrounded by the Angels B offense. Still as appealing?

Victor Martinez - Maybe next year he’ll come back and he’ll be like Resurrection: Tupac, but for right now he looks like Black Sheep’s followup to A Wolf in Sheep’s Clothing.

Rickie Weeks - I gotta say whoever is holding onto him, you show great loyalty. Not the best judgment, but your loyalty is impeccable.

Conor Jackson - Imagine a world where a first baseman gave you a little bit of everything, but that little bit reminds you of a 2nd baseman’s stats. Then you have Conor Jackson attached to play the lead. Would that be something you’d be interested in?

Ervin Santana went 7 and one-third innings yesterday, gave up one earned run and struckout eight. For the season, he has an impressive 169/51 K/BB ratio– Oh, wait, that’s Johan Santana. Ervin Santana has actually been better at 191/44. (BTW, no wonder Earvin Johnson went by Magic. You can’t write or say Ervin or Earvin by itself. You have to add in the last name just to make it sound normal.) This season Ervin (weird, right?) has cut his HRs allowed and his numbers aren’t pointing to a regression for next year. Know what’s been the big change? Those funky Wandy home/away splits are gone. Ervin Santana’s only 25 and he’ll be on my short list for next year. Johan, Carlos and Tito move over; there’s a new Santana in town. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Ian Kinsler - Kinsler’s done for the season. Back date this to last month when I told you he was done.

Carlos Zambrano - Big Z got inflammation of the thingie he uses to throw a baseball. Not good, ya’ll. Maybe the 247,000 pitches the last couple of years weren’t the best idea. Just a guess.

Joey Votto - I chose to put Votto in my fantasy baseball keeper post yesterday and he rewarded us with a home run. You’re welcome.

Torii Hunter - HR yesterday. His season can be found next to yawnstipating in the Razzball glossary.

Ramon Ramirez - When Fogg left with a groin injury, he came on to pitch a perfect three innings. I like to think Dusty told him to do the exact opposite of what Fogg did and Ramirez is just a very good listener. Ramirez should get some starts down the stretch and could excel simply because hitters won’t be familiar with him, while possibly facing some B lineups.

Billy Wagner - Supposed to return next Tuesday. I see a blown save in the Mets’ future for next Wednesday.

Kevin Gregg - Said he should be ready to go next week at this time. I see blown saves (<–that’s plural, Razzballers!) in the Marlins’ future.

Travis Snider - 3-for-3 and HR yesterday. In yesterday’s comments, I said, “Shorthand, (Snider’s) a lot like Chris Davis and Jay Bruce. He strikes out a lot and he has power. He could also catch pitchers under prepared to get him out and he could have a solid three weeks. In other words, worth a flier, but he might go 0-for-next week. He’s very underdeveloped.” And that’s me quoting me!

Melvin Mora - He said, “It’s day by day” and he said he won’t return by this weekend. That sounds just like that other Orioles 3rd baseman of the 80s and 90s.

Jesse Litsch - Shutout with 3 Ks. The lack of Ks in that line is the problem with Litsch, but he used to be a bat boy. That shizz is heartwarming!

Dan Wheeler - Picked up the one out save. Zoinks! Percival’s back, what gives? Not entirely sure what Joe Maddon was thinking, but I believe it was because the Yankees rallied in the ninth so fast that Maddon didn’t want to rush his old, oft-injured closer into the game at the last second, so he opted for the better qualified one. Sorry I don’t know more, I was watching the RNC and our possible VPILF.

For only the most wicked pissas, I’d considah Pedroia, a can of Budwisah and a replay of Doug Flutie at the Orange Bowl. For heaven, throw-in a hot broad and a Dunkin’ Donuts Coolatta. For Nahvana, I’m doing this in the same room as Denis Leary, Cam Neely and Pesky. But we can’t all be Massholes, so we look if Dustin Pedroia is a legit keeper and not just a wicked awesome keepah. In the forums, there was some discussion about whether Dustin Pedroia was a better keeper than Corey Hart. In early June, I said Corey Hart, easily. As you’ll see from that discussion, Pedroia wasn’t even that commenter’s second choice for who to keep. Two months later, Pedroia’s now batting fourth for the Sawx and he has as many home runs as David Ortiz. He’s a legit MVP candidate if you don’t pronounce your Rs. But can’t Pedroia be a keeper? Definitely for some people’s teams. His average should come down because of a high BABIP and the power might not be quite this strong next year, but at his position, he’s definitely a keeper. Just not against Corey Hart. Anyway, here’s some other fantasy baseball keepers for 2009:

Billy Butler - 7 HRs and is batting .318 since the All-Star break. (That’s 3 1/2 HRs for each moob.) I don’t think he’s going to be a 30/.300 guy next year, but as a deep league keeper, I like Butler.

B.J. Upton - But, um, he like had no homers this year? He’s young as dog balls and his swing is sweet. Or sweeeeeeet as you might say if you wanted to emphasis it but not go through the trouble of just thinking up a better word.

Josh Fogg - Psyche! Just making sure you’re paying attention.

Joey Votto - I already talked about how Votto was a solid keeper. Actually I talked about how he was Barbara Hershey and Jay Bruce was Bette Midler as they reenact the movie, Beaches, but you get my drift.

Justin Duchscherer is headed to the DL with a bad hip. (That’s the exact medical term. I checked WebMD.) How about them Athletics?! Talk about an ironic team name. Bobby Crosby, Street, Chavez, formerly Harden, etc. How about un-Athletic? What, too obvious? Whateves. You add the clever for once. Duchscherer might come back in two weeks. There’s only five weeks left! You’re going to wait around for this schmohawk? Cut bait as they say on the Country Music Channel or The Nashville Network or whatever channel Jeff Foxworthy’s hosting a show on. Oh, wait, that’s Fox. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Derek Lowe - 6 1/3 innings, 1 ER. I’m on him for home matchups like Alyssa Milano’s on Valtrex.

James Loney - HR yesterday. Headed to Philly for a weekend series. Stock up on your Dodgers’ bats. Loney’s probably one that is out there.

Greg Smith - 6 IP, 0 ER. Against the Mariners. It’s like being able to hit the ocean with a golf ball from a pier.

Yunel Escobar - HR yesterday. If he gets to ten home runs and five steals with a .290 average, you’re going to look at him next March and think about drafting him. Remember the five months of yawnstipation. Remember.

Brandon Webb/Cliff Lee - 19th and 18th wins respectively. Now disrespectfully, Cliff Lee?! Holy heffin’ hey, are you serious? He’s 29 and his K/BB ratio tripled this year.  What the eff? Imagine if the Indians were good and hadn’t been Pronk’d! Cliff Lee would be looking at a 40 win season and free blow from Drew Carey for life.

Hideki Matsui - First home run since returning three games ago. This is a win for Godzilla, anime and porn.

Joey Votto/Jay Bruce - Both homered yesterday. They should totally watch Beaches together, because Votto’s totally Barbara Hersey and Jay Bruce is Bette Midler. While Jay Bruce is rocking out on Broadway in a musical about Otto Titsling, Votto’s living for some detached jerk and biding his time until he has a baby. But things only appear wonderful for Bruce. His spouse is two-timing on him, he can’t have a kid and he’s butt freakin’ ugly. Wait, I was all ready for a good cry when I realized this was supposed to have something to do with Votto, Bruce and fantasy baseball? Oh, that’s right! Votto’s just as good as Bruce, but he’s getting cold there in Bruce’s shadow.