Fantasy Baseball Advice

I’ve mentioned a few times in the course of the rankings about guys I’d actually own.  In the 2010 fantasy baseball top 100, I say there’s 20 guys I’d actually own.  I’ll even pull the quote for you.  In the F-Her blurb, I said, “If I were to only talk about the guys I would actually own, this top 100 may only be 20 guys long.”  See, I did say it!  So, I lied.  I’d own everyone in the top 100.  I’d own Lincecum, but he’d have to fall to me in the 3rd round; I’d own Mark Reynolds, but he’d have to be around in the 4th round; I’d own Mauer, but he’d have to be around pick 28.  And so on and so forth.  What I mean by there’s only 20 players I’d own is those are the only guys I could actually see myself getting in a draft considering where they’re being drafted and how I assemble a team.  I’d draft Nathan in the 90s, but his ADP is 75, so it doesn’t seem like it’s happening.  This also does not include the top 22 guys overall.  I’d own them all, except Lincecum.  Anyway, here’s the players from ranking 22 to 100 in the top 100 for 2010 fantasy baseball that I’d own:

24. Justin Upton

29. Ryan Zimmerman

30. Kevin Youkilis

33. Joey Votto

34. Curtis Granderson

35. Jayson Werth

36. B.J. Upton

37. Brandon Phillips

40. Robinson Cano

47. Josh Hamilton

54. Carlos Quentin

55. Nelson Cruz

56. Adam Jones

71. Cole Hamels

72. Josh Johnson

73. Cliff Lee

74. Ubaldo Jimenez

76. Ricky Nolasco

77. Josh Beckett

78. Clayton Kershaw

85. Gordon Beckham

86. Raul Ibanez

96. Wandy Rodriguez

97. Chad Billingsley

100. Ian Stewart

And it came out to 24 guys.  Well, I did say, “…this top 100 may only be 20 guys long.”  Turns out I underestimated.  This becomes interesting if you look at how the names break down.  (And by “interesting,” I mean rather pedantic.) In the beginning, I shoot for the cornerstones with Zimmerman, Youk and Votto.  Then I briefly look at 2nd basemen before stocking my outfield with Grandy, Werth, Upton, etc.  Once I have my corners and outfield in good shape, I look at pitchers.  After pitchers, I round out the top 100 with upside and personal favorites.  Now I say I’d own these guys.  Obviously, I wouldn’t own all of them on one team.  Also, who you have in the top 22 dictates who you take later.  Hehe, I said dictates.

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2010 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2010 Reds Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of Reds Reporter.

1) This is the year Jay Bruce and Homer Bailey make good on all their promise, right? Please.  Lie to me, if need be.

I sure hope so.  Jay Bruce had somewhat disappointing season last year (0.223/0.303/0.470), certainly below most people’s expectations.  As a result, he seems to have slipped a bit in a lot of people’s estimations.  There were some other troubling aspects of his performance last year as well, like his 13% line drive rate (though this is not a particularly stable stat for most hitters).  Nevertheless, there is cause for optimism.  Most importantly, he’s entering his age-23 season with two years of MLB under his belt.  Not many players have done that and shown the kind of power Bruce has; that’s part of the reason that Barry Bonds is listed as his most similar player (by age) at baseball-reference.  Second, his BABIP was unbelievably low last season.  Part of that may be a function of his low line drive rate and excessively high fly ball rate.  But part of it may just be bad luck.  He’s a nice kid with sky-high talent, so everyone’s hoping he can take a big step forward next year.  To do so, however, he’s going to need to show much better plate discipline than he has in the past.  Sometimes he gets into funks where he seems to swing at just about anything the pitcher throws his way, and the result is a lot of weakly hit balls that will do his BABIP no favors.

As for Bailey…  He reportedly made a meaningful adjustment to his mechanics last offseason, and the result was a 3 mph uptick in his fastball velocity.  That’s massive, and it’s the main reason that I think what he showed over his last 9 starts (58 IP, 1.70 ERA, 53/24 K/BB) might be predictive of a quality season from him next year.  The only problem with that statement is that he had the same mechanical adjustment and velocity increase over his first 11 starts too (55 IP, 7.53 ERA, 33/28 K/BB).  But, maybe he just needed some time to find himself.  That’s what I keep telling myself anyway.

Clearly, this is a huge year for both of them.  With their talent, it’s probably not a “make or break” year.  But I think it’ll go a long way in telling us what sorts of careers these guys are likely to have.  … though I probably said the same thing last year.

2) My free Chinese calender says it’s The Year of the Tiger (and Tuesdays are “Lo Mein, Low Prices” Day).  But something tells me it’s The Year of the Votto.  What’s your prediction for him in 2010?

For some reason, I’ve always been a little skeptical on Votto, and he’s always proven me wrong.  But I think we’re going to see Joey Votto regress a bit.  I think he’s going to be a nice hitter, but the guy had an 0.372 BABIP last year.  That’s hard to maintain.  Most projections have him in the 0.300/0.385/0.525 range, and I’d be thrilled to get that from him again next year–especially if he can conquer some of the anxiety issues that surfaced last year and start 150+ games.  He was able to play through the anniversary of his father’s death over the last part of the season last year, so that’s a good sign.

3) Let’s play, Over/Under.  Next year, Drew Stubbs — 400 ABs, .240 average, 10 homers, 35 steals.  Feel free to expand on why you think he’ll be over or under on each.

Tough, as that’s about right.  I’ll take the over on the average and AB’s, and the under on the steals and homers.  I really don’t know what to expect from Stubbs, because his success in the majors last year–8 HR in 180 AB’s–goes completely against what his minor league numbers tell us to expect.  He “should be” a patient hitter who strikes out a lot and gets a lot of value from walks, speed, and fielding.  His fielding was as brilliant as advertised, and that along with the Taveras trade should keep him in the lineup as long as Chris Heisey doesn’t go crazy on us or something.  10 HR is clearly not out of his reach, and he’s always been a guy that the Reds expected to hit for at least decent power.  But I think pitchers are going to pitch him differently this year, which might prevent that kind of power success again.  He hit more than 7 home runs in a season just once in the minors, and that was in Low-A Dayton.  Steals…well, it will depend on how often he gets on base.  Dusty will likely hit him near the top of the lineup, though, because Dusty always leads off with a CF or SS…and Cabrera’s “a #2 hitter.”

4) In 2010, Johnny Cueto will pitch more like how he did in the 1st half or the 2nd half of 2009? And why?

My hope is like the first half, though the safe answer is somewhere in between.  One thing about Cueto last year is that he had pitched in both winter ball (against the Reds’ wishes IIRC) as well as the World Baseball Classic.  People already worried about his ability to hold up to workload given his fairly small frame (5′10″ 185lbs), and it’s reasonable to think that he might have just gotten really tired in the second half last season.  But it’s also the case that on June 1st, his ERA was 2.53 but his FIP was 4.02 and he had a 0.234 BABIP.  So part of it was just regression.  I hoping for 180 IP with a 4.25 ERA or so, but I’m not sure if I’ll get it.

5) When do you think we see Aroldis Chapman with the Reds?  Is there any truth to the rumor that Aroldis Chapman signed with the Reds because Dusty Baker’s concern for pitchers was most akin to Fidel Castro’s concern for human rights?

It’s hard to know.  I initially figured he’d start somewhere in A-ball and quickly work his way up if he showed he was ready.  But the initial reports from the Reds’ pitching coach were glowing, indicating much better command of his offspeed pitches, for example.  He might start the year in the high minors and be with the big club by mid-year.  Or, he might struggle.  It’s pretty hard to know without any minor league game data to work from.  I like tall left handers who throw 100 mph, though.

As for Dusty…Aside from the Harang stupidity in 2008, I think he’s been pretty good with the pitchers.  Especially the young ones.  Cueto, for example, never threw over 112 pitches last year, and only 5 times threw 110 or more.  Volquez threw 121 once in 2008, but never went over that mark.  I don’t think Dusty is breaking pitchers, at least not any more.

The top 10 and 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball are in the bag, along with the top 20 catchers.  Today, Razzballers, we look at the top 20 1st basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball.  All this shizz can be found under the 2010 Fantasy Baseball rankings.  This top 20 list of 1st basemen is the opposite of the catchers, it is bursting at the seams like you at a Hometown Buffet.  Speaking of gorging yourself, as I mentioned elsewhere, I want a top 1st baseman on my team in 2010.  Sure, the list is deep, but 10 of these guys will probably be gone by the 4th round.  Do you really want to go to battle with, say, Derrek Lee when someone else has, say, Ryan Howard?  I don’t.  I want to be one of the teams with a top 1st baseman.  This list will get additional 1st basemen added to it in the way of sleeper posts like I added Kendry Morales last year.  As with the other rankings, the first basemen are broken up into tiers with my projections included.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 1st basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball:

1. Albert Pujols – See the top 10 for 2010 fantasy baseball post for Albert Pujols’s projections.

2. Mark Teixeira – See the top 10 for 2010 fantasy baseball post for Mark Teixeira’s projections.

3. Miguel Cabrera – See the top 10 for 2010 fantasy baseball post for Miguel Cabrera’s projections.

4. Prince Fielder – See the top 10 for 2010 fantasy baseball post for Prince Fielder’s projections.

5. Ryan Howard – See the top 10 for 2010 fantasy baseball post for Mark Teixeira’s projections.

6. Adrian Gonzalez – See the top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball post for Adrian Gonzalez’s projections.

7. Justin Morneau – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Reynolds.  I call this tier, “Probably as good as the last tier, but their track record’s a little wonky.”  I actually like Morneau this year.  I adverb’d my like because I haven’t liked him in a while.  Probably not since I started this time suck blog.  Why the sudden admiration?  Because I feel like the world has suddenly cooled on him, making him more affordable in drafts.  Of course, my love for him goes in the deep fryer if his back is giving him issues in spring training.  2010 Projections:  95/32/110/.290

8. Kevin Youkilis – Youuuuuuk’s production is very predictable.  In a game where players fluctuate all over the place, there’s value in that predictability.  2010 Projections:  95/27/105/.295/5

9. Mark Reynolds – See the top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball post for Mark Reynolds’s projections.

10. Joey Votto – This is a new tier.  This tier is just Votto.  I call this tier, “Yes, please.”  Here I went over my Votto fantasy for 2010.  2010 Projections:  90/30/105/.305/7

11. Victor Martinez – This is a new tier.  This tier goes until Lee.  I call this tier, “Caveats.”  The caveat with V-Mart is he could be rested more than the usual first baseman since he’ll be catching on most days.  See the top 20 catchers for 2010 fantasy baseball for Victor Martinez’s projections.

12. Pablo Sandoval – It’s hard to not like a chubby guy who goes by the nickname, Kung Fu Panda.  Who doesn’t love pandas?  It’s unpatriotic (in China).  I love pandas so much I want a freakin’ panda dog.  If I had a kid, I’m dye the kid to look like a panda.  So, I do like Pablo Sandoval.  But there’s caveats.  He’s not really a home run hitter.  It would not shock me to see him hit 22 homers in 2010.  Also, his average last year looks to be on the high side.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see a .300 average instead of .330.  I like him, just be careful what you’re expecting.  (Obviously at 3rd base, he’s more enticing.)  2010 Projections:  80/24/95/.315/4

13. Kendry Morales – I still like Kendry for 2010, but there’s some reason to believe 2009 was his career year.  He’s more of a .285 hitter than a .305 hitter.  I don’t entirely believe the power.  He’s more of a 27-plus homer hitter than a 32-plus hitter.  It might be quibbling, but if Kendry lands on the bottom of his potential, is he that different than Cuddyer?  2010 Projections:  80/28/100/.285/3

14. Adam Dunn - SAT question of the day.  From 2006 to 2009, Adam Dunn hit .234, .264, .236, .267, respectively.   In 2010, Adam Dunn will hit A) .238 B) 40 homers C) There is no C.  2010 Projections:  80/40/100/.250

15. Carlos Pena – Last year, Pena’s average was lower than it should’ve been. He’s still only a .250 hitter.  .250 hitters can hit .220 again if the ball doesn’t bounce like it should.  Pena also led the AL in homers.  2010 Projections:  95/37/100/.250

16. Derrek Lee – Derrek Lee had the highest fly ball percentage of his career last year.  Okay, hotshot, now you have to ask yourself, do you think he’s going to continue this in 2010 or do you think he’s going to revert to his career norms outside of 2009?  2010 Projections:  90/25/100/.295

17. Lance Berkman – Hmm… He hit 29 homers in his 2008 season when he was 32-years-old.  At the age of 33, he hit 25.  By the time he’s 40, he’s going to be Juan Pierre.  I wouldn’t expect 30 homers just because you and your brother, Jimbo, grew up watching Berkman hit 30 bombs a year.  Before Canseco started sticking suckas with needles, it was pretty normal to see a decline in players Berkman’s age.  2010 Projections:  70/23/85/.285/3

18. Billy Butler – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Davis.  I call this tier, “Your last chance for some upside, but these guys aren’t slam dunks.”  Last year he hit 51 doubles.  Have you seen the moobs on this guy?  He has to hit a few more of those doubles for homers in 2010, doesn’t he?  I like to think so.  Though I have noticed something of late.  He seems to be turning into a sleeper sell, like Chris Davis last year. Butler still hits lots of ground balls and he needed 672 plate appearances for 21 homers last year.  Don’t go crazy with yourself expecting the world from Butler.  He may end up overrated even if I like him to an extent.  2010 Projections:  85/25/100/.295

19. Garrett Jones – He’s just so old for a 2nd year player that it’s hard to get fully behind him.  He reminds me of Ludwick.  Big splash his rookie year then a fade in the 2nd year.  He obviously could go 30/10, but he can also get exploited over a full season and end up being waiver fodder.  Caveat emptor, for those reading in Latin America.  2010 Projections:  65/25/80/.255/12

20. Chris Davis – Read all about him in my Chris Davis sleeper post.  2010 Projections:  65/28/85/.255/7

21. Michael Cuddyer – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Loney.  I call this tier, “I hope you’re sitting in an exit row.” Cuddyer is a 24 homer, .275 hitter.  Last year was a career year…. And it’s not even that great of a career.  Don’t pay for a career year the following season.  2010 Projections:  85/24/95/.275/5

22. Russell Branyan – Last year was nice, I really don’t see it happening again.  And, if it does happen again from a power standpoint, I wouldn’t expect the average to even be as high as last year’s .251 mark.  2010 Projections:  60/22/70/.240

23. James Loney – It feels like every year Loney is ranked 20th with the promise of more.  This year, I’m ranking him 20th and expecting 20th ranked production.  Whether it’s his ground ball rate or mediocre power, I don’t know, but he’s not getting better.  2010 Projections: 75/15/85/.290/4

After the top 20, there’s lots of names, but two stand out:

Brandon Allen – I went over him in the Brandon Allen fantasy baseball outlook whosie-wiggers.  Has 20 homer power to spare.  Want someone that can surprise and move into the top 15 next year?  Here ya go.  UPDATE:  LaRoche signed with the Diamondbacks.  This is one of those signings where you know the club isn’t thinking, “Yeah! LaRoche makes us a playoff team!” Or, “Yeah!  LaRoche puts bodies in the seats!”  This is one of those moves where you don’t know what the club is thinking.  Play the youngster!  Alas, they’re not going to.  They’re going to play LaRoche.  Adam LaRoche’s 2010 Projections:  70/27/80/.265

Carlos Delgado – UPDATE:  Out for four months.

I took part in my 3rd mock draft for 2010 fantasy baseball the other day.  Tis the season, ya’ll.  And by the other day, I mean I did this mock about three weeks ago prior to the winter meetings/signings/whosehewhiches.  So if you’re wondering why I drafted Randy Wolf or Rodney, it’s because it’s before they lost value in the last two weeks.  Unlike my other mock drafts, I was a bit more prepared for this one since I’ve done most of the rankings already.  You’ll get those sometime in January.  You can hardly wait!  The teams who participated are listed followed by my team.  Then I’ll point out certain rounds and what the eff was I thinking.  BTW, I have no idea if it was really Dane Cook mock drafting with us or his intern or someone pretending to be Dane Cook or his intern.  Evidence that it was him, he wasn’t funny in the the mock draft chatroom and he did draft a lot of Red Sawx players.   Evidence that it wasn’t him, when I asked him for my money back for the movie tickets I bought to his movie.  He said it wasn’t his fault, the editors took out the good parts.  Then I said, that’s not true, they left you in.  And he said nothing.  I expect the real Dane Cook would’ve said something.  So my guess is it was not Dane In Real Life.  Anyway, here’s a 2010 fantasy baseball mock team with some thoughts:

Round 2 – Matt Holliday – I have no problems with Holliday late in the 2nd round.  No matter what team he ends up on.  He’s good for 25 homers, .315 average and 15 steals.  Slot that next to Hanley and my team’s exiting the 2nd round as good as any other team, if not better.

Round 3 – Joey Votto – Love Votto this year.  Looking at a guy that is going to give me at least 25 homers, .315 and 15 steals.  Wait, that’s Holliday… and Hanley.  Damn, my shizz is dope.  This is stacking up to be the best mock team ever.  You, folks, are witnessing some kind of history.  Or you’re witnessing a recap of a mock draft.  You decide if you want to burst your own bubble.  I would have liked to draft Votto in the 4th round, but when Adrian Gonzalez was taken in the 2nd round, I knew I had to take Votto or risk not having a 1st baseman.

Round 4 – Adam Lind – First off, yes, I believe in the 35 homers.  Second off, my team felt a little light on power, so I wanted a big bat.  Third off, there is no third off.

Round 5 – Johan Santana – Halladay went right after Johan and if this were a real draft, I would’ve taken Halladay first.  My bad, I was eating dinner while drafting and not fully paying attention.  Hey, at least I’m honest.  But while not fully paying attention, I still have the best mock team possibly ever.  I took Johan because I can’t imagine he’s done being a dominant ace and he’s pitching in Metco.  That’s with a falling K-rate or not.

Round 8 – Ian Stewart – Couple of things at play here.  Dan Uggla was just taken before Stewart and the next 2nd baseman on the board after Stewart was Crapolanco.  I knew I wasn’t drafting again for 21 picks.  I had already punted 3rd base and I didn’t want to punt 2nd base too.  Also, Ian Stewart is my 2010 Mini Donkey Award winner.

Round 9 – Chipper Jones – Chipper’s prolly my least favorite pick of this mock.  Was just a case of how the players fell in this draft.  It was Chipper or the next 3rd baseman was Mark DeRosa.  I don’t want Chipper, I really don’t want DeRosa.  Plus, I figured if I had to move Stewart to 3rd and grab a waiver wire 2nd baseman, that would be doable.  Then again, this is just a mock.  Who gives an eff in the cooley hole?

Round 11 – Geovany Soto – As mentioned in the opening paragraph, I’ve done the rankings.  What I found when I did them is I like Soto this year.  He had a shoulder injury last year.  Believe in the bounce back.

Round 14/15 – Nolan Reimold and Garrett Jones – Some other outfielders taken in this round were Denard Dawg, Kubel, Jermaine Dye and Corey Hart.  Two guys who can go 30/10 in the outfield felt like no brainers this late in the draft.  Then again, as my grandmother used to tell me between cigarettes, a no brainer is my specialty.

Round 16 – Johnny Cueto – I believe in the 2009 1st half Cueto, not the 2009 2nd half Cueto.

Round 18 – Jonathan Sanchez – A 200 K pitcher around the 216th overall pick?  Okay, I’ll take that.

Round 20 – Carlos Ruiz – I don’t necessarily like Ruiz, but in a two catcher league you do what you can.

Round 21 - Ian Desmond – Went over him the other day in the Ian Desmond fantasy thingamawhosie.

Round 22 – Homer Bailey – Think the upside comes through one of these years…. Or not.  With the last pick of a 12 team draft, it was worth a shot… Or not.  It’s a mock, ya’ll.

There’s very few 1st baseman I can see jumping into the top tiers for 2011, Joey Votto is one of them.  This alone is reason for him to be a 2010 fantasy baseball keeper, but there’s more. Show me the way, Grey! I shall, random italicized voice!  Last year, Votto missed games because of dizziness and a bad case of the Mondays.  With that missed time, it was only natural to see Votto fall short of his previous year’s numbers when he had 151 games.  Oh, wait.  He outperformed those numbers in 20 less games.  That’s a cause célèbre!  If “cause célèbre” meant what it sounded like.  To put it into colloquial Mandarin then back into English, “I’ve finished my meal now I want some fresh oranges.”  “Here you go!”  “Thank you!”  So let’s look at what we can expect from Votto for 2010 fantasy baseball and why he’s a keeper and someone I’m targeting in drafts.

Double his 2nd half when he went 49/14/42/.300/2 in 267 at-bats and you’d have bottom of the barrel expectations for him.  That would mean no step forward.  If Votto continues to progress, you’re looking at a guy that could easily give you 32 homers, 10 steals and a .300 average.  This is enough reason for him to be a 2010 fantasy baseball keeper, but, wait, there’s more.  If you buy into Joey Votto for 2010, I’ll also throw in a climbing walk rate and OPS for absolutely free!  Don’t want it?  Who cares, it’s free!  Before you have time to answer because I’m talking so fast, throw in a home park that makes the new Stadium Adjacent to the House That Ruth Built spacious.  Want more?  Tough noogs, it’s all I have.